Will Hosmer be this year's Porcello?

[Sports Guy]

The guy who slips very far because he is a HSer and signability issues(ie Boras issues)....What do you guys think?

[WebLink21]

The guy who slips very far because he is a HSer and signability issues(ie Boras issues)....What do you guys think?

I think that it is def a possibility. I think that taking a HS kid is already a much bigger risk than a college player. Taking one at 6 million per season is a huge risk IMO. I remember Rowell being the top HS kid the year that we drafted him. I already get frustrated with his development because I am so impatient. I can imagine how frustrated I would be if we gave him that kind of money too.

[Mackus]

Pipe dreams running through my head of him dropping to 46...

[Stotle]

The guy who slips very far because he is a HSer and signability issues(ie Boras issues)....What do you guys think?

Porcello also stated his strong desire to pitch at UNC. I haven't heard that from Hosmer, yet (re: Arizona State). Porcello looked like he would need to be convinced to sign, Hosmer is just asking for a lot of money. I doubt he drops outside of the Top 15, and I think he goes Top 10.

[LookinUp]

The guy who slips very far because he is a HSer and signability issues(ie Boras issues)....What do you guys think?

I thought Porcello also had an injury last year. It was a combination of things with him if I remember correctly.

EDIT: I was wrong. I think Brackman had injuries that caused him to drop. Not Porcello.

[Stotle]

Pipe dreams running through my head of him dropping to 46...

That would be rough, seeing him go four picks before the Orioles at 2:4 (#50 overall) ;)

[Stotle]

I thought Porcello also had an injury last year. It was a combination of things with him if I remember correctly.

I believe you are thinking of Brackman, who dropped to the Yankees because of signability and cost -- he had TJ after being drafted.

[LookinUp]

I believe you are thinking of Brackman, who dropped to the Yankees because of signability and cost -- he had TJ after being drafted.

Yup, just made the edit.

[Jammer7]

I think Porcello's slipping to the bottom of the round had as much to do with the fact that he was a hs pitcher, which made him a much more of a risk for injuries, as it did with how much he was asking for. Hosmer doesn't have that problem. I doubt seriously, as things stand right now, that he falls past #8. Someone will pay him $4-5 million, probably not $7 million.

[Stotle]

I think Porcello's slipping to the bottom of the round had as much to do with the fact that he was a hs pitcher, which made him a much more of a risk for injuries, as it did with how much he was asking for. Hosmer doesn't have that problem. I doubt seriously, as things stand right now, that he falls past #8. Someone will pay him $4-5 million, probably not $7 million.

Maybe, but HS pitchers aren't generally avoided in the 1st round:

'07 -- Parker (1:9), Bumgarner (1:10), Aumont (1:11), Beaven (1:17), Withrow (1:20), Alderson (1:22), Main (1:24), Porcello (1:27)

I'm not sure there is a greater chance of injury for HS kids, either, considering the win-first stance most D-I college coaches take.

[Jammer7]

Maybe, but HS pitchers aren't generally avoided in the 1st round:

'07 -- Parker (1:9), Bumgarner (1:10), Aumont (1:11), Beaven (1:17), Withrow (1:20), Alderson (1:22), Main (1:24), Porcello (1:27)

I'm not sure there is a greater chance of injury for HS kids, either, considering the win-first stance most D-I college coaches take.

I understand what you are saying here. The other pitchers were drafted ahead of Porcello because of the $$ he wanted. If not for that, then he would have been the first hs pitcher drafted most likely. That kind of money for a pitcher is more of a risk than it is for a hitter.

Last year's draft was an aberration. Even so, there wasn't any before #9, 10 and 11. They are all studs, but there have been numerous articles outlining the disparity of round 1 hs pitchers making it to the ML in comparison with college pitchers. Hitters are a much safer bet in the top 10 or so picks than pitchers. It has been researched and proven over and over again.

If a pitcher is overused in college, scouts will know about it and it will hurt the kid's draft status.

[Mackus]

That would be rough, seeing him go four picks before the Orioles at 2:4 (#50 overall) ;)I looked that up too, said there were only 12 supplemental picks. Stupid bad sources.

[Greg Pappas]

The guy who slips very far because he is a HSer and signability issues(ie Boras issues)....What do you guys think?

In a word: No.

[Stotle]

Last year's draft was an aberration. Even so, there wasn't any before #9, 10 and 11. They are all studs, but there have been numerous articles outlining the disparity of round 1 hs pitchers making it to the ML in comparison with college pitchers. Hitters are a much safer bet in the top 10 or so picks than pitchers. It has been researched and proven over and over again.

If a pitcher is overused in college, scouts will know about it and it will hurt the kid's draft status.

I don't know about aberration, but it was definitely strong in HS arms (just like this year's is strong in college 1bs).

Almost every elite college pitcher is "overused".

It is certainly a bit more difficult for HS pitchers to make the ML because they have an extra 2-years or so in which they could be injured. Porcello has been absolutely filthy, though, and I could easily see him pitching for the Tigers by the end of next season. His stuff was known to be this good at draft time, so I don't think there is a real issue of whether or not he'd be a good bet to make a ML rotation.

[markpolis]

I understand what you are saying here. The other pitchers were drafted ahead of Porcello because of the $$ he wanted. If not for that, then he would have been the first hs pitcher drafted most likely. That kind of money for a pitcher is more of a risk than it is for a hitter.

Last year's draft was an aberration. Even so, there wasn't any before #9, 10 and 11. They are all studs, but there have been numerous articles outlining the disparity of round 1 hs pitchers making it to the ML in comparison with college pitchers. Hitters are a much safer bet in the top 10 or so picks than pitchers. It has been researched and proven over and over again.

If a pitcher is overused in college, scouts will know about it and it will hurt the kid's draft status.

Just like the Orioles knew Ben McDonald was overused. :angryfire:

[Jammer7]

Just like the Orioles knew Ben McDonald was overused. :angryfire:

I know, but that was almost 20 years ago (1989)...I'd like to think the teams have learned a few things since then. And I don't think Ben's problems were so much from overuse though, IIRC he signed a ML deal and he was rushed, in part, because of it. John Hoover and Beau Hale are the two that I think of when I think of overused college pitchers. And Hale's status was hurt because he was known to have been abused by Texas.