Greg need your opinion

[Cheese Oriole]

Greg, For us to understand the top options for the Orioles at the #4 pick, please give us a major league comparision ie T Beckham- BJ Upton.

G Beckham -
Smoak-
Hosmer-
Matuzs-
Posey-


Thanks.....

[Greg Pappas]

Greg, For us to understand the top options for the Orioles at the #4 pick, please give us a major league comparision ie T Beckham- BJ Upton.

G Beckham -
Smoak-
Hosmer-
Matuzs-
Posey-


Thanks.....

This is an almost impossible task, in that all players have important differences in their games, however...

I'll try to get as close as possible.

T Beckham - Somewhere between Rafael Furcal and Justin Upton.

G Beckham - Khalil Greene, but with better batting average and less glove.

Smoak - Mark Teixeira'ish, but likely a bit behind MT.

Hosmer - Justin Morneau'ish, .300+, 30+ HR+, 110+ RBI

Matusz - Difficult, but perhaps a lighter tossing Sabathia, but perhaps more consistent.

With more time I may do better. :)

Posey-

[markpolis]

Greg, For us to understand the top options for the Orioles at the #4 pick, please give us a major league comparision ie T Beckham- BJ Upton.


Thanks.....

T. Beckham - a poor man's Derek Jeter/Jimmy Rollins
G Beckham - I like the K. Greene comp.
Smoak- offensively no where near Tex.; defensively superior
Hosmer- Morneau with more power potential, won't hit for as high an average
Matuzs- much closer to Mark Mulder than Sabathia, similar to Loewen
Posey- somewhere between Craig Biggio and Jason Kendell (with less speed)

[Fairfax Bird]

T. Beckham - a poor man's Derek Jeter/Jimmy Rollins
G Beckham - I like the K. Greene comp.
Smoak- offensively no where near Tex.; defensively superior
Hosmer- Morneau with more power potential, won't hit for as high an average
Matuzs- much closer to Mark Mulder than Sabathia, similar to Loewen
Posey- somewhere between Craig Biggio and Jason Kendell (with less speed)

better defensively than Tex? Thought he was a gold glover.

[baltimoriole]

When someone compares Loewen to Matusz it makes me completely loathe the idea of picking Matusz with the 4th.

[tnsmith90]

Smoak- offensively no where near Tex.; defensively superior


I haven't seen many of the kid's games, but most of the reports I've read on him say he has the potential to be a 40 homerun guy, while more likely closer to a 30 homerun guy. Plus he's a switch hitter. That would seem to be pretty close to Tex. Have you seen something in his game that makes you think differently?

[markpolis]

I haven't seen many of the kid's games, but most of the reports I've read on him say he has the potential to be a 40 homerun guy, while more likely closer to a 30 homerun guy. Plus he's a switch hitter. That would seem to be pretty close to Tex. Have you seen something in his game that makes you think differently?

You are the first to say he has 40 HR potential. I think his max potential is 30HR's. Offense is a lot more involved than hitting homeruns. On a bad year, Tex hits 30 HR's. I think Smoak's numbers will be less in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Not to say they won't be very good, just not as good as Tex's. (IMO)

[66-70-83-??]

You are the first to say he has 40 HR potential. I think his max potential is 30HR's. Offense is a lot more involved than hitting homeruns. On a bad year, Tex hits 30 HR's. I think Smoak's numbers will be less in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Not to say they won't be very good, just not as good as Tex's. (IMO)

No he isn't. There have been numerous sources saying that.


He's got plus power now and in the future, from both sides of the plate. He could be a 35-40 homer guy at the big-league level.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=smoak


3. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

If Alvarez has competition for the "Best College Hitter" title, it's from Smoak, who will likely one day top 40 home runs in the majors. He's also one of the nation's most athletic first basemen and has potential to one day win a Gold Glove. The key for Smoak is maintaining good bat control and keeping his strikeout numbers down.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/sioncampus/02/25/baseball.top.prospects/index.html

But, if your point is that it is a stretch to project ANY college/HS batter to 40 HR potential in the big leagues- I would agree.

There is just to much that can happen between HS/College-rookie lg-A-A+-AA-AAA- MLB... to project that this early. Suffice it to say he has *plus power* potential at this point.

[66-70-83-??]

When someone compares Loewen to Matusz it makes me completely loathe the idea of picking Matusz with the 4th.

Loewen, on his best days, hasn't had the kind of command that Matusz has shown every day.

Matusz, being a college pitcher, also will be drafted with a lot more experience than Loewen had.

Loewen is not a good comparison, imo.

[tnsmith90]

You are the first to say he has 40 HR potential. I think his max potential is 30HR's. Offense is a lot more involved than hitting homeruns. On a bad year, Tex hits 30 HR's. I think Smoak's numbers will be less in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Not to say they won't be very good, just not as good as Tex's. (IMO)

Like 66-70-83 said I'm not the first to say he has that kind of potential. I'm just mainly going off of what I've read through different scouting reports.

I understand that homeruns are not everything though, but they're a good gauge for power potential. Anyways, so you think he'll be far from the player Tex is offensively due to the other means of analyzing offense? Are you just overrating Tex or do you see Smoak as that low level? Because you have to figure if they have the same homerun potential they should have about the same power potential, and likely similar slugging percentages. And every other stat of Tex's is only pretty good. .284 lifetime batting average, .369 lifetime OBP, and 11 career stolen bases are only pretty good in my book. What makes Tex great is his power, which Smoak seems to have the potential to be. So my question is this..were you just overrating Tex or does smoak project in your opinion to be not even that good in those categories? This is an honest question by the way.

[markpolis]

Like 66-70-83 said I'm not the first to say he has that kind of potential. I'm just mainly going off of what I've read through different scouting reports.

I understand that homeruns are not everything though, but they're a good gauge for power potential. Anyways, so you think he'll be far from the player Tex is offensively due to the other means of analyzing offense? Are you just overrating Tex or do you see Smoak as that low level? Because you have to figure if they have the same homerun potential they should have about the same power potential, and likely similar slugging percentages. And every other stat of Tex's is only pretty good. .284 lifetime batting average, .369 lifetime OBP, and 11 career stolen bases are only pretty good in my book. What makes Tex great is his power, which Smoak seems to have the potential to be. So my question is this..were you just overrating Tex or does smoak project in your opinion to be not even that good in those categories? This is an honest question by the way.

How can I be overrated Tex? His numbers speak for themselves.

Don't get me wrong, I like Smoak and would be happy if we draft him. I'm actually hoping we do so we are less inclined to overpay for Tex next year. From my own personal comparison Smoak doesn't generate the same type of bat speed as Texiera as a college player. He has some flaws in his swing that were exposed last summer that he will need to correct against professional pitching. IMO, offensively his numbers just don't project as well.

BTW, what does career stolen bases have to do with anything? ;):scratchchinhmm:

[Sports Guy]

I will take Smoak and Tex please. :D

[tnsmith90]

How can I be overrated Tex? His numbers speak for themselves.

Don't get me wrong, I like Smoak and would be happy if we draft him. I'm actually hoping we do so we are less inclined to overpay for Tex next year. From my own personal comparison Smoak doesn't generate the same type of bat speed as Texiera as a college player. He has some flaws in his swing that were exposed last summer that he will need to correct against professional pitching. IMO, offensively his numbers just don't project as well.

BTW, what does career stolen bases have to do with anything? ;):scratchchinhmm:

You could be overrating Tex based on his numbers not measuring his power. A lifetime .284 average, and I think it was .369 OBP are only pretty good. They're not amazing. They're just pretty good. Where he becomes amazing is when you include his power numbers into the mix, which according to the reports I've read atleast say Smoak has the potential to match. So to me that sounds like you're saying Smoak won't even be nearly good enough to hit .284 and get on base at a .369 clip, which sounds like a .260/.330 player. So I was wondering if you were just overrating Tex or if that's really what you saw smoak as profiling as. But thanks for clearing up your stance on him. You just don't think he has quite as good hitting tools. Thankyou.

Oh and stolen bases I just included to show that Tex isn't some speed demon for a first basemen, and it won't be hard for Smoak to match him in the speed tool atleast haha.

Anyways I'm not trying to say that Smoak looks like he'll be as good as Tex, I'm just trying to gain a little more info on these players.

[markpolis]

Loewen, on his best days, hasn't had the kind of command that Matusz has shown every day.

Matusz, being a college pitcher, also will be drafted with a lot more experience than Loewen had.

Loewen is not a good comparison, imo.

Here is what BA had to say about Loewen in 2002:

"With two plus pitches and the possibility of two more, Loewen has legitimate No. 1 starter potential. His fastball usually ranges from 90-95 mph, though it was a bit lower at the end of the season as he tired. His curveball, a big 12-to-6 breaker, is his best pitch. He has a good feel for a changeup and has dabbled with a slider as well. He’s athletic with smooth mechanics, effortless arm action and good extension."

You are right. Loewen projected better than Matusz. :laughlol:

[66-70-83-??]

Here is what BA had to say about Loewen in 2002:

"With two plus pitches and the possibility of two more, Loewen has legitimate No. 1 starter potential. His fastball usually ranges from 90-95 mph, though it was a bit lower at the end of the season as he tired. His curveball, a big 12-to-6 breaker, is his best pitch. He has a good feel for a changeup and has dabbled with a slider as well. He’s athletic with smooth mechanics, effortless arm action and good extension."

You are right. Loewen projected better than Matusz. :laughlol:

:laughlol:

Maybe so....

But, this comparison may demonstrate what a difference it makes evaluating a college pitcher vs a HS pitcher..... A lot can happen in a few years. Facing the college hitters for several years and still coming out on top is a good thing that supports the notion that college pitchers are a safer pick.

Matusz is clearly a more polished product than Loewen was on his draft day.

[crawdad]

Here is what BA had to say about Loewen in 2002:

"With two plus pitches and the possibility of two more, Loewen has legitimate No. 1 starter potential. His fastball usually ranges from 90-95 mph, though it was a bit lower at the end of the season as he tired. His curveball, a big 12-to-6 breaker, is his best pitch. He has a good feel for a changeup and has dabbled with a slider as well. He’s athletic with smooth mechanics, effortless arm action and good extension."

You are right. Loewen projected better than Matusz. :laughlol:

Loewen was projected to have better stuff, but had more significant issues with control. He has never really been able to overcome that. Matusz is far beyond Loewen with his control. I think that is the main difference between the two. Loewen in more of a thrower and Matusz is more of a pitcher.

[allstar1579]

:laughlol:

Maybe so....

But, this comparison may demonstrate what a difference it makes evaluating a college pitcher vs a HS pitcher..... A lot can happen in a few years. Facing the college hitters for several years and still coming out on top is a good thing that supports the notion that college pitchers are a safer pick.

Matusz is clearly a more polished product than Loewen was on his draft day.


I promise I won't get into pitchers versus hitters again ;)

Matusz does have a ton of polish, he is great with his 2 offspeed pitches, I think his polish is his no. 1 trait, because that can't be taught. That being said, I think he projects in the same mold as Moskos, and Detwiler, which is just a hair behind Price last year. There just isn't the pitching depth at the top from last season where all 3 of these guys, on top of Aumont and a few others, made it a fairly solid first round for pitching. Every time I hear "safe pick" I cringe though, just something about it screams to expect the worst for me.

[Pruke]

Wow - what a great discussion if for no other reason, it makes me really think Smoak is a great pick with TBeckham, PAlvarez & Posey potentially off the board. I think I'd take Smoak over Posey anyways.

Thanks for the evolving analysis gang!

[markpolis]

:laughlol:

Maybe so....

But, this comparison may demonstrate what a difference it makes evaluating a college pitcher vs a HS pitcher..... A lot can happen in a few years. Facing the college hitters for several years and still coming out on top is a good thing that supports the notion that college pitchers are a safer pick.

Matusz is clearly a more polished product than Loewen was on his draft day.

Good points. Also, Matusz was drafted by the Angels in the 4th round out of high school. He would have gone higher but he had high contract demands. I like the fact he was a stud coming out of HS and has only improved his draft status in college. This really shows something about his makeup and character. Something you can't discount when selecting players.

[allstar1579]

Good points. Also, Matusz was drafted by the Angels in the 4th round out of high school. He would have gone higher but he had high contract demands. I like the fact he was a stud coming out of HS and has only improved his draft status in college. This really shows something about his makeup and character. Something you can't discount when selecting players.

Yeah I was going to mention that earlier but I forgot, it seems like just about all of these top pitchers were taken in 04/05. I know we drafted Scheppers, and ANA took Matusz. This is why we should be excited to let JJ do his thing, and draft some HS guys in the later rounds, a pitcher we get to sign this year could be a guy that would be in this top 10 mock in 3 or 4 years if we didn't.

[Go_Os]

Hosmer- Morneau with more power potential, won't hit for as high an average



The kid is hitting .471/.607 OBP/.989 SLG in highschool and Morneau is a career .278 hitter. How do you come to your conclusion that a kid with that AVG and OBP will hit for a lower average? To me, he looks like Nick Johnson, but with more power.

[Stotle]

The kid is hitting .471/.607 OBP/.989 SLG in highschool and Morneau is a career .278 hitter. How do you come to your conclusion that a kid with that AVG and OBP will hit for a lower average? To me, he looks like Nick Johnson, but with more power.

To be fair, HS batting average is fairly useless as a measuring tool for future performance. .471 is a very good average for a HSer but it isn't close to "eye-popping". His mechanics, approach and frame are all much more important in trying to figure out what type of pro he could be.

From what I have read/heard he has a great shot to be a good professional hitter. I'm conservative with HSers, so I'd place him around a 30-35 HR "type" and somewhere in the broad range of .280-.300. Again, slapping those numbers on him at this point are a little pointless -- what's important is many teams see the makings of a solid player with pretty sound mechanics, an advanced approach at the plate and a frame projecting for future wood-bat-power.

[allstar1579]

To be fair, HS batting average is fairly useless as a measuring tool for future performance. .471 is a very good average for a HSer but it isn't close to "eye-popping". His mechanics, approach and frame are all much more important in trying to figure out what type of pro he could be.

From what I have read/heard he has a great shot to be a good professional hitter. I'm conservative with HSers, so I'd place him around a 30-35 HR "type" and somewhere in the broad range of .280-.300. Again, slapping those numbers on him at this point are a little pointless -- what's important is many teams see the makings of a solid player with pretty sound mechanics, an advanced approach at the plate and a frame projecting for future wood-bat-power.

This guy knows what he's talking about, trust him on this one :)

A lot of the elite HS players will put up .500 or better averages, or in the ballpark. Beckham hit .500 even this year, Justin Upton hit .508 his senior year, and his brother BJ hit .641 with 11 HR his senior year. Like Stotle said, .470 is respectable, but even playing the best teams in the country, he is still hitting a lot of pitchers that don't have great off-speed stuff, or really know how to pitch yet, so he hasn't been tested like he will in the high minors. Hosmer has the tools, and has a heck of a projection going for him, but you can't start guessing numbers, because he could develop one tool more than others later and that be the difference between being Nick Johnson and Jason Giambi.