Poll: Smoak v. Alvarez

[Greg Pappas]

Who would you prefer to see the O's draft, were they both available, considering financial concerns and everything?

[Sports Guy]

This is tough to answer...I think most would agree that Alvarez is the better talent and he does play the more important position.

However, what we don't know is if we give a ton of money to Alvarez how is that going to effect our picks in the rounds after the first?

Last year, we gave a lot to Wieters but we didn't have a second or third round pick.

If the draft budget is unlimited, then my answer is Alvarez...If we have a limit, then i may prefer Smoak and then go get 2-3 Arrieta type guys in later rounds.

[Greg Pappas]

This is tough to answer...I think most would agree that Alvarez is the better talent and he does play the more important position.

However, what we don't know is if we give a ton of money to Alvarez how is that going to effect our picks in the rounds after the first?

Last year, we gave a lot to Wieters but we didn't have a second or third round pick.

If the draft budget is unlimited, then my answer is Alvarez...If we have a limit, then i may prefer Smoak and then go get 2-3 Arrieta type guys in later rounds.

Very tough indeed.

["Mickey" Manto]

Alvarez may indeed turn out to be the better player, but I really like Smoak. I'll be VERY disappointed if we don't draft him at #4. Switch hitter with power, slick glove and a previous relationship with our catcher of the future just pushes him over the top for me. I would also hope that since he doesn't seem to have a power hungry agent "advising" him that may mean we could get him signed and playing this summer. How great would it be to have both Weiters and Smoak playing together at Bowie by summer's end?

I just want to take a moment to thank Greg, Stotle, et al for providing such great overall draft coverage. The scouting reports and links to other content really has made research both easy and fun.

Here's a big Rex Barney, "Thank yoooooou!" :clap3:

[Sports Guy]

The other thing you have to consider is future negotiations as well...In terms of contract and Boras involvement.

Of course, Smoak could always sign with Boras later on but right now, you figure him to be a better bet to stay longer.

[Moose Milligan]

Can't lose either way.

I say Alvarez but think it's unrealistic that he'll be there when we're on the board. I'm really hoping for Smoak.

[Greg Pappas]

Alvarez may indeed turn out to be the better player, but I really like Smoak. I'll be VERY disappointed if we don't draft him at #4. Switch hitter with power, slick glove and a previous relationship with our catcher of the future just pushes him over the top for me. I would also hope that since he doesn't seem to have a power hungry agent "advising" him that may mean we could get him signed and playing this summer. How great would it be to have both Weiters and Smoak playing together at Bowie by summer's end?

I just want to take a moment to thank Greg, Stotle, et al for providing such great overall draft coverage. The scouting reports and links to other content really has made research both easy and fun.

Here's a big Rex Barney, "Thank yoooooou!" :clap3:

Thank you. I am so torn on this one... Smoak is a beast, but most scouts feel Alvarez is the better overall player. I imagine that if Alvarez had not been hurt this year we'd not be asking these questions. :o

[Moose Milligan]

Thank you. I am so torn on this one... Smoak is a beast, but most scouts feel Alvarez is the better overall player. I imagine that if Alvarez had not been hurt this year we'd not be asking these questions. :o

I might have missed it, but are you hoping we land either of these two? Are they your top choices for us?

[ShoelesJoe]

Supposedly 1st basemen are easier to find than 3rd basemen or corner outfielders, so just on a position vs position basis Pedro should be more valuable. But I'm concerned about Alvarez's stats post injury, and whether he'll really be 100% any time soon. I love the fact that Smoak is projected to be a plus defender as well as a power hitter. It's been so long since we've had a decent defensive first baseman (David Segui?) I've forgotten what they look like.

Ask me yesterday and I'd have said Alvarez, but today it's Smoak. Either way it's win/win, but it better be one of them. Let Matusz drop to the Giants.

[Bmo24Ph]

This should be a shut out. Alvarez is the best player in the draft.

[Stotle]

Alvarez may indeed turn out to be the better player, but I really like Smoak. I'll be VERY disappointed if we don't draft him at #4. Switch hitter with power, slick glove and a previous relationship with our catcher of the future just pushes him over the top for me. I would also hope that since he doesn't seem to have a power hungry agent "advising" him that may mean we could get him signed and playing this summer. How great would it be to have both Weiters and Smoak playing together at Bowie by summer's end?

I just want to take a moment to thank Greg, Stotle, et al for providing such great overall draft coverage. The scouting reports and links to other content really has made research both easy and fun.

Here's a big Rex Barney, "Thank yoooooou!" :clap3:

Thanks; it's been fun.

[Greg Pappas]

I might have missed it, but are you hoping we land either of these two? Are they your top choices for us?

Hosmer is my top player, so no, however I thought that it would be possible that a decision would come down to these two. :)

[YardBirds13]

Smoak. Use the money to sign guys that slip in rounds 2-whenever.

[Walladarsky]

I voted Alvarez, but I feel like it's only by a hair. A huge consideration is that you're limiting yourself to only six years major league service with any Boras client as he always takes them to free agency during their walk year.

[Greg Pappas]

This should be a shut out. Alvarez is the best player in the draft.

Is... was... don't know really. I am an Alvarez fan, and if we get him, sweeeeet. :)

However, I do have some concerns, particularly defensively. He committed 16 errors and had a .917 fielding % at 3B, all in 66 games... just last year. Again this year (the injury may be part of the issue) he was even worse with a .903 fldg % in 40 games. Some scouts believe he can become an adequate 3B'man, while others believe he'll move to 1B or even a corner outfield. Again, there is a bit of a concern with a player that may have to switch to a position he is unfamiliar with and hope he'll be okay there.

Alvarez also hasn't had the best BB/K ratio, having a 40/65 ratio last year and a 28/26 ratio this year, as compared to Smoak's 54/40 last year and 57/28 ratio this year.

With all that being said, Alvarez is a decent enough athlete that he should be okay whatever position he plays, and should be an outstanding pro, but I don't think it's as one-sided as you feel it is.

[Sports Guy]

Is... was... don't know really. I am an Alvarez fan, and if we get him, sweeeeet. :)

However, I do have some concerns, particularly defensively. He committed 16 errors and had a .917 fielding % at 3B, all in 66 games... just last year. Again this year (the injury may be part of the issue) he was even worse with a .903 fldg % in 40 games. Some scouts believe he can become an adequate 3B'man, while others believe he'll move to 1B or even a corner outfield. Again, there is a bit of a concern with a player that may have to switch to a position he is unfamiliar with and hope he'll be okay there.

Alvarez also hasn't had the best BB/K ratio, having a 40/65 ratio last year and a 28/26 ratio this year, as compared to Smoak's 54/40 last year and 57/28 ratio this year.

With all that being said, Alvarez is a decent enough athlete that he should be okay wherever position he winds up and should be an outstanding pro, but I don't think it's as one-sided as you feel it is.
If he isn't pretty much guaranteed to be a third baseman, then give me Smoak over him.

[Greg Pappas]

If he isn't pretty much guaranteed to be a third baseman, then give me Smoak over him.

No guarantee about it.

[RZNJ]

Is... was... don't know really. I am an Alvarez fan, and if we get him, sweeeeet. :)

However, I do have some concerns, particularly defensively. He committed 16 errors and had a .917 fielding % at 3B, all in 66 games... just last year. Again this year (the injury may be part of the issue) he was even worse with a .903 fldg % in 40 games. Some scouts believe he can become an adequate 3B'man, while others believe he'll move to 1B or even a corner outfield. Again, there is a bit of a concern with a player that may have to switch to a position he is unfamiliar with and hope he'll be okay there.

Alvarez also hasn't had the best BB/K ratio, having a 40/65 ratio last year and a 28/26 ratio this year, as compared to Smoak's 54/40 last year and 57/28 ratio this year.

With all that being said, Alvarez is a decent enough athlete that he should be okay whatever position he plays, and should be an outstanding pro, but I don't think it's as one-sided as you feel it is.


I hadn't ever really looked at his career stats until I read your post. His strikeout numbers are a little high. That's a bit of a red flag for me. If a player is striking out 20% to 25% of the time in college, I'd be concerned that he's got a weakness that will be exploited in the pros. Switch me to Smoak.

I know stats don't tell the whole story, BUT:

Wieters struck out about 1:7
Reimold about 1:6
Smoak about 1:6
Alvarez about 1:4

That's a concern.

[420gamewinners]

If Alvarez is the top player in the draft and he falls to #4, you have to take him no matter what position he plays. All of the draft experts have Alvarez rated above Smoak.

[section18]

Did anybody watch the Mets - Dodgers Sunday night game on ESPN? I was doing something and heard them say the draft is Thursday and looked up and there were five players on the screen they said were some of the top players in the draft. I hope they did us a favor and left Smoak out of their top five. I was looking at the pictures and tried to read everyone's name real fast and didn't see him. They had the regulars we know about for the top four and I believe they had Crow on the screen.

Smoak has to be the guy for us. The Wieters and Smoak connection is nice also but not the reason for taking him over the pitchers. The only way we go for Matusz or Alvarez is if we are sure Teixeira is coming here and they don't see Smoak playing anywhere else. He can always DH as a switch hitter but you normally don't draft a guy who is good at his position to DH.

I really think Teixeira is coming here. His parents go to Orioles games and you know they want to see him play for their team in Baltimore before he stops playing. He is only 28 and will be 29 later this year. Playing six years with the Orioles will put him in his mid 30's by the time his next contract would come up. He owes it to his parents to come here. I credit my father for my love of baseball. I played recreation for seven years and stopped because we moved to another area and I didn't know anybody. Not a good reason but the main reason. It would have been a great way to meet guys my age but I passed on it and wished I would have kept playing. I could always hit but didn't have the speed to play.....although I think I could beat Ramon or Kevin in a foot race. His parents are always on TV when he plays in Baltimore with his visiting team and you know they want him here. How much money is enough. He is a Georgia Tech guy and has a good head on him. I can't imagine he has been blowing money over the last few years since he got a few bigger contracts. He's at $12.5 million now. I think $18 million will get it done. Do we want two first basemen? I say yes and if need be we could always trade Smoak later if we need help in other areas.

Smoak is and should be the guy. AM and JJ have to agree on this if he is available at #4.

[Hank Scorpio]

Can't lose either way.

I say Alvarez but think it's unrealistic that he'll be there when we're on the board. I'm really hoping for Smoak.

I'm right there with slappy.

No chance Alvarez is still there at #4. Honestly, given the amount of talent in the top 5, I think that I'll be giddy any way you slice it. Matusz, Smoak, Beckham....... whatever.

[Greg Pappas]

I'm right there with slappy.

No chance Alvarez is still there at #4. Honestly, given the amount of talent in the top 5, I think that I'll be giddy any way you slice it. Matusz, Smoak, Beckham....... whatever.

Yeah, all this talk and the truth of it is that no matter who we take on Thursday we will be getting one outstanding player... and then of course many other youngsters with talent as well throughout the draft. :)

[markpolis]

I'm right there with slappy.

No chance Alvarez is still there at #4. Honestly, given the amount of talent in the top 5, I think that I'll be giddy any way you slice it. Matusz, Smoak, Beckham....... whatever.

There is a very good chance Alvarez is still on the board when we draft.

1- TB - selects Posey or Beckham. It looks like it's going to be Posey or Beckham. For argument's sake, let's go with Beckham.

2 - PITT - IMO, this is the only place Alvarez will go before the Orioles pick. If TB takes Beckham, then I can see the Pirates going for Posey. I don't see them taking Beckham here. The Pirates organization was villified by their fans last year for not taking Wieters. New management guarantees they will take the best talent, regardless of price. The Pirates will try to make a statement to their fans and baseball in general with this pick. I can see them justifying Buster Posey, the College Player of the Year, to their fans. Perhaps they can justify Tim Beckham, the best high school player, the next Upton or Jeter, but I highly doubt it. Let's say they select Posey.

3 - KC - the Royals were very high on local product Aaron Crow, before he stumbled a bit during the season. He has since bounced back strongly and has reestablished himself as a Top 5 potential pick. The strength of the Royals farm system is right hand pitchers (if you want to call it a strength). Their GM, Drayton Moore, has made acquiring pitching a top priority. I could easily see the Royals taking Matusz or Crow over Alvarez with this pick.

4 - Orioles - Alvarez falls in their lap. Probable, perhaps not. But I think the scenarios I have covered above could very well happen. Will they? We'll find out soon enough.

Until then, we can pray.

[Greg Pappas]

There is a very good chance Alvarez is still on the board when we draft.

1- TB - selects Posey or Beckham. It looks like it's going to be Posey or Beckham. For argument's sake, let's go with Beckham.

2 - PITT - IMO, this is the only place Alvarez will go before the Orioles pick. If TB takes Beckham, then I can see the Pirates going for Posey. I don't see them taking Beckham here. The Pirates organization was villified by their fans last year for not taking Wieters. New management guarantees they will take the best talent, regardless of price. The Pirates will try to make a statement to their fans and baseball in general with this pick. I can see them justifying Buster Posey, the College Player of the Year, to their fans. Perhaps they can justify Tim Beckham, the best high school player, the next Upton or Jeter, but I highly doubt it. Let's say they select Posey.

3 - KC - the Royals were very high on local product Aaron Crow, before he stumbled a bit during the season. He has since bounced back strongly and has reestablished himself as a Top 5 potential pick. The strength of the Royals farm system is right hand pitchers (if you want to call it a strength). Their GM, Drayton Moore, has made acquiring pitching a top priority. I could easily see the Royals taking Matusz or Crow over Alvarez with this pick.

4 - Orioles - Alvarez falls in their lap. Probable, perhaps not. But I think the scenarios I have covered above could very well happen. Will they? We'll find out soon enough.

Until then, we can pray.

There are soooo many possibilities in this draft, as far as who goes where in the top yen... it's going to be a great deal of fun watching it unfold.

[RZNJ]

Is Justin Smoak's stint with the USA team, where his numbers were sub-par, the main reason why he's not considered a better bat than Alvarez? Going by the numbers, Smoak looks to walk more and strike out less than Alvarez, and still offer the same power. Alvarez might be more athletic but we know Smoak is a good defensive 1B. We aren't sure where Alvarez fits and you can't be sure he'll excel at any one position. Alvarez also has Boras as an agent, right? So, someone convince me why we should take Alvarez over Smoak.

[Stotle]

Is Justin Smoak's stint with the USA team, where his numbers were sub-par, the main reason why he's not considered a better bat than Alvarez? Going by the numbers, Smoak looks to walk more and strike out less than Alvarez, and still offer the same power. Alvarez might be more athletic but we know Smoak is a good defensive 1B. We aren't sure where Alvarez fits and you can't be sure he'll excel at any one position. Alvarez also has Boras as an agent, right? So, someone convince me why we should take Alvarez over Smoak.

Not to direct attention to Camden Depot, but the write-up there breaks down Alvarez's first two seasons and his two years with Team USA. The strikeout numbers are a concern, I agree. Alvarez, however, hit right from the get-go, both as a freshmen in the toughest conference in college baseball (and I'm an ACC man) and as one of the younger members of Team USA. I think part of the issue may be his immense power has lead him to swing for the fences a bit too much. Maybe his pro hitting coaches can help him harness a little.

[Sports Guy]

Is Justin Smoak's stint with the USA team, where his numbers were sub-par, the main reason why he's not considered a better bat than Alvarez? Going by the numbers, Smoak looks to walk more and strike out less than Alvarez, and still offer the same power. Alvarez might be more athletic but we know Smoak is a good defensive 1B. We aren't sure where Alvarez fits and you can't be sure he'll excel at any one position. Alvarez also has Boras as an agent, right? So, someone convince me why we should take Alvarez over Smoak.

Yea, if Alvarez is subpar defensively at third and if he is going to move from there, i see no reason to take him over Smoak, especially considering signing bonuses and things like that.

[oriole_way]

I'm no amateur draft expert, but a couple of thoughts come to my mind:

1. I don't understand the concerns about Alvarez having to switch position. If Alvarez has to switch from 3rd to first, so what? I've never heard of a third baseman who wasn't able to make that transition. And it's not like he doesn't have the bat to play at first.

2. Smoak had serious troubles with Team USA while Alvarez shined there. Alvarez also had 243 AB with Team USA over two stints, which basically equates to 1 full college season, ie the sample size is not that small.

3. Coming into this season, Alvarez was widely considered to be the better prospect. Alvarez then didn't have the season that many were expecting due to the hamate injury, but that shouldn't affect him in the least going forward. So letting Alvarez's final collegiate season affect his evaluation seems like a mistake to me. I would think that two outstanding seasons in 06 and 07 would provide enough of a resume to evaluate him.

[Greg Pappas]

I'm no amateur draft expert, but a couple of thoughts come to my mind:

1. I don't understand the concerns about Alvarez having to switch position. If Alvarez has to switch from 3rd to first, so what? I've never heard of a third baseman who wasn't able to make that transition. And it's not like he doesn't have the bat to play at first.

2. Smoak had serious troubles with Team USA while Alvarez shined there. Alvarez also had 243 AB with Team USA over two stints, which basically equates to 1 full college season, ie the sample size is not that small.

3. Coming into this season, Alvarez was widely considered to be the better prospect. Alvarez then didn't have the season that many were expecting due to the hamate injury, but that shouldn't affect him in the least going forward. So letting Alvarez's final collegiate season affect his evaluation seems like a mistake to me. I would think that two outstanding seasons in 06 and 07 would provide enough of a resume to evaluate him.

All your points are good, and while the concern over Alvarez switching positions is not a 'big' concern, it needs to be part of the evaluation. Alvarez may not be an outstanding defender at 1B, but merely adequate. That matters somewhat. Alvarez may be a better pro than Smoak, and he has the tools and history to back up those comps, but as of now the comparisons of who is better are very close to many of us.

Again, good post.

[oriole_way]

All your points are good, and while the concern over Alvarez switching positions is not a 'big' concern, it needs to be part of the evaluation. Alvarez may not be an outstanding defender at 1B, but merely adequate. That matters somewhat. Alvarez may be a better pro than Smoak, and he has the tools and history to back up those comps, but as of now the comparisons of who is better are very close to many of us.

Again, good post.

Let me put it another way.

Who are the best first basemen in the majors? How many of those are considered the best first basemen in large part due to their glove?

Now if Alvarez projects defensively as a Jason Giambi at first, then so be it, but that's not the case. (Heck, we have Millar at first and nobody seems to complain too much about his glove, and he's considered a poor defensive first baseman. We complain about his bat.)

And while it seems that Smoak is considered a good defensive first baseman, I don't see any reports that consider him the second coming defensively. If he was, he probably would have been a third baseman instead of a first baseman to begin with.

In the end the possible difference in glovework at first base between Alvarez and Smoak seems negligible to me. And of the two, Alvarez is the only one that could play third (or as a corner outfielder). If Smoak is blocked at first base for whatever reason (Teixeira, Rowell), then there's no where to put him except dh.

Therefore, I don't give Smoak any edge due to his glovework.

It would be interesting to be able to talk to Andy Mcphail privately and see what his honest opinion on this matter is.

I see there's no 'shrugs shoulders' smilie.

[Greg Pappas]

Let me put it another way.

Who are the best first basemen in the majors? How many of those are considered the best first basemen in large part due to their glove?

Now if Alvarez projects defensively as a Jason Giambi at first, then so be it, but that's not the case. (Heck, we have Millar at first and nobody seems to complain too much about his glove, and he's considered a poor defensive first baseman. We complain about his bat.)

And while it seems that Smoak is considered a good defensive first baseman, I don't see any reports that consider him the second coming defensively. If he was, he probably would have been a third baseman instead of a first baseman to begin with.

In the end the possible difference in glovework at first base between Alvarez and Smoak seems negligible to me. And of the two, Alvarez is the only one that could play third (or as a corner outfielder). If Smoak is blocked at first base for whatever reason (Teixeira, Rowell), then there's no where to put him except dh.

Therefore, I don't give Smoak any edge due to his glovework.

It would be interesting to be able to talk to Andy Mcphail privately and see what his honest opinion on this matter is.

I see there's no 'shrugs shoulders' smilie.

I'll not continue this with you, but if you could... what was that last bolded line about?

[wayne25]

Has to be smoak, for me. Even before the season began, I'd read somewhere that a scout had smoak ahead of alverez because alverez "swings and misses too much". I'd rather have the higher on base %, higher average that i think Smoak will produce. He's going to be the 2nd coming of "EDDIE,EDDIE,EDDIE.

[oriole_way]

I'll not continue this with you, but if you could... what was that last bolded line about?

Just meant it in a "dispassionate, just my opinion, agree to disagree" kind of way, as in I didn't want to seem like I was getting worked up over my opinion.

I guess it wasn't very clear. :)

[Greg Pappas]

Just meant it in a "dispassionate, just my opinion, agree to disagree" kind of way, as in I didn't want to seem like I was getting worked up over my opinion.

I guess it wasn't very clear. :)

Now I get it. :) Thanks.

[Jericho]

To me its Alvarez. He's universally considered a better player than Smoak. Maybe the experts are wrong in the end, but do you bet against the wisdom of everyone? There's usually something when all the scouts agree.

As a slight aside, I hope the Orioles take a hitter. I know you don't draft by need, but it seems likely the Orioles will have their pick of plenty of similarly ranked players. And the top pitchers aren't the kind that scouts drool over. A lot of projections have the O's taking Matusz. But this team has tons of pitching propsects. It would be nice to have legit hitting prospects. All that's there now is Weiters, and to a lesser extent Reimold. Guys like Rowell and such are way far off and pretty iffy. But in the end, I can't really complain about who the O's take unless they go way off board or pass on Alvarez or Tim Beckham (and both are likely to be off the board anyway).