Where would Smoak rank?

[DennisTheOsFan]

If Smoak ends up being our pick, where would his bat rank in our system if we did an early listing?

Would he be 2nd after Wieters? or 3rd after Wieters and Reimold? or 4th after Rowell?

[Greg Pappas]

If Smoak ends up being our pick, where would his bat rank in our system if we did an early listing?

Would he be 2nd after Wieters? or 3rd after Wieters and Reimold? or 4th after Rowell?

IMHO, immediately behind Wieters... although eventually he should challenge Wieters/Markakis, etc... down the road.

[Stotle]

IMHO, immediately behind Wieters... although eventually he should challenge Wieters/Markakis, etc... down the road.

My 2cents (using Baseball AMerica's rankings) place him here:

1. Wieters
2. Liz
3. Smoak
4. Patton
5. Reimold

If I had to guess at next year's ranking, he'd be second behind Wieters, though he could drop to 3rd if BAL grabs a high ceiling signability pick later in the draft.

[blamo0]

My 2cents (using Baseball AMerica's rankings) place him here:

1. Wieters
2. Liz
3. Smoak
4. Patton
5. Reimold

If I had to guess at next year's ranking, he'd be second behind Wieters, though he could drop to 3rd if BAL grabs a high ceiling signability pick later in the draft.

I would probobly put Arrieta/Tillman up there in place of Patton.

[Crazysilver03]

My 2cents (using Baseball AMerica's rankings) place him here:

1. Wieters
2. Liz
3. Smoak
4. Patton
5. Reimold

If I had to guess at next year's ranking, he'd be second behind Wieters, though he could drop to 3rd if BAL grabs a high ceiling signability pick later in the draft.

Heading into next season, we would see:

1) Wieters
2) Arrieta
3) Smoak
4) Tillman

In reality, who ever we draft could fall anywhere between 2-4 on the prospect list.

[Greg Pappas]

He was asking about bats specifically. :)

[Crazysilver03]

He was asking about bats specifically. :)

Well then second.

[wayne25]

IMHO, immediately behind Wieters... although eventually he should challenge Wieters/Markakis, etc... down the road.

what he said

[JimPalmerJr]

Does Wieters rank ahead of Smoak because of :

1.) Wieters is a catcher

2.) Wieters is a better hitter, even if they shared 1B / DH.

[Sports Guy]

4th...I don't think he would be ahead of Arrieta and Tillman.

[markpolis]

4th...I don't think he would be ahead of Arrieta and Tillman.

The original question was asking only about hitters. He would be #2 behind Wieters.

[Sports Guy]

The original question was asking only about hitters. He would be #2 behind Wieters.

Oh ok..Yea, he would be #2, with Reimold 3 and Rowell 4.

[oriole_way]

Does it really make a difference where he ranks in our system before he's even taken any minor league ABs? It's pretty artificial IMO.

After he was drafted, Snyder was near the top of our positional player rankings. He has since disappointed.

Then the next year, Rowell was drafted and he was near the top of our positional player rankings. He too has been disappointing thus far.

Then Wieters was drafted and he was at the top. He has fulfilled/exceeded those expectations.

If we draft Smoak, let's see how he fares and then worry about where he ranks in our system.

[Sports Guy]

Law was just on ESPN making the Tex comparison and I think he has Smoak ahead of Alvarez.

[Greg Pappas]

Does it really make a difference where he ranks in our system before he's even taken any minor league ABs? It's pretty artificial IMO.

After he was drafted, Snyder was near the top of our positional player rankings. He has since disappointed.

Then the next year, Rowell was drafted and he was near the top of our positional player rankings. He too has been disappointing thus far.

Then Wieters was drafted and he was at the top. He has fulfilled/exceeded those expectations.

If we draft Smoak, let's see how he fares and then worry about where he ranks in our system.

We all realize the articial flavor, but it helps some to understand the expectations.

[Sports Guy]

I think I rank Smoak 2nd overall behind TBeck and I could get behind the argument that Smoak should be taken ahead of Beckham because of closeness to majors and more of a sure thing.

[oriole_way]

We all realize the articial flavor, but it helps some to understand the expectations.

Does a hypothetical ranking really change expectations?

Any hitter we take at 1.4 should have pretty good potential, so that question could be asked of Smoak, Alvarez, T Beckam, Hosmer, Posey etc., and the answer would probably be the same. They would all probably rank 2nd (amongst the positional players) in our system, behind Wieters and ahead of Rowell/Reimold.

[Stotle]

Does a hypothetical ranking really change expectations?

Any hitter we take at 1.4 should have pretty good potential, so that question could be asked of Smoak, Alvarez, T Beckam, Hosmer, Posey etc., and the answer would probably be the same. They would all probably rank 2nd (amongst the positional players) in our system, behind Wieters and ahead of Rowell/Reimold.

Alvarez would rank ahead of Wieters.

[markpolis]

Alvarez would rank ahead of Wieters.

No way you can rank Alvarez ahead of Wieters.

When BA does their next Top 100 Prospect list, Matt Wieters will be in the Top 3. After the injury plagued season Alvarez has suffered, his status has taken a step down. More than likely Alvarez won't sign until August due to contract negiotiations and the need to rest his hand.

In time, Alvarez may indeed pass Wieters on the prospect list. But if the list was put together tomorrow, it wouldn't even be close.

[TyCobb]

No way you can rank Alvarez ahead of Wieters.

When BA does their next Top 100 Prospect list, Matt Wieters will be in the Top 3. After the injury plagued season Alvarez has suffered, his status has taken a step down. More than likely Alvarez won't sign until August due to contract negiotiations and the need to rest his hand.

In time, Alvarez may indeed pass Wieters on the prospect list. But if the list was put together tomorrow, it wouldn't even be close.

I definately agree. If he was right and Alvarez is ranked ahead of Wieters it would be a no-brainer to draft this kid 1:1.

[Stotle]

No way you can rank Alvarez ahead of Wieters.

When BA does their next Top 100 Prospect list, Matt Wieters will be in the Top 3. After the injury plagued season Alvarez has suffered, his status has taken a step down. More than likely Alvarez won't sign until August due to contract negiotiations and the need to rest his hand.

In time, Alvarez may indeed pass Wieters on the prospect list. But if the list was put together tomorrow, it wouldn't even be close.

His injury plagued season will have zero effect on his overall ranking. If Wieters ranks ahead it will be because he is a catcher. I thought we were talking solely about the bat.

Had Alvarez been available in last year's draft, his bat would have been ranked ahead of Wieters.

[markpolis]

His injury plagued season will have zero effect on his overall ranking. If Wieters ranks ahead it will be because he is a catcher. I thought we were talking solely about the bat.

Had Alvarez been available in last year's draft, his bat would have been ranked ahead of Wieters.

"Zero effect"? Really? If that's the case then why aren't the D-Rays going to take him #1 overall? He clearly was the best player entering the college season and the #1 consensus overall pick. It's not like there is someone else, albeit T. Beckham, Posey, Hosmer or Matusz who has clearly distinguished themselves as the #1 pick like David Price last year.

If the injury didn't effect his status, then what made Alvarez fall from his lofty preseason status at the #1 pick?

[Stotle]

"Zero effect"? Really? If that's the case then why aren't the D-Rays going to take him #1 overall? He clearly was the best player entering the college season and the #1 consensus overall pick. It's not like there is someone else, albeit T. Beckham, Posey, Hosmer or Matusz who has clearly distinguished themselves as the #1 pick like David Price last year.

If the injury didn't effect his status, then what made Alvarez fall from his lofty preseason status at the #1 pick?

Well, we were talking about Baseball Americas future ranking of Alvarez as a prospect, not his draft ranking.

Several factors have played into Pedro's posible slippage tomorrow. To start, and to be clear, Beckham and Alvarez were sort of a 1a/1b going into the season -- Alvarez was not a clear-cut #1. Going into the summer, maybe. After Beckham wowed the scouts for two and a half months, not so much.

From there:
1. I don't think anyone anticipated Posey's incredible season;
2. Alvarez missed a chunk of the season with an injury that is known to sap power in the short term but have no lasting effects;
3. Alvarez announced that he would still be demanding $10mio;
4. Beckham came on strong at the end of his season to solidify his case as a potential #1

So now, TAM is looking at a Pedro that they rationally should not knock down at all, realizing how dominant he's been over the past two seasons and the fact that hamate injuries are not lasting injuries. However, they see numbers that are down and two other legit #1 talents -- Beckham because of his tool set and Posey because of his premium position and huge step forward offensively. Now they look at the $10mio pricetag.

I really think it's that simple.

[jerios55]

Oh ok..Yea, he would be #2, with Reimold 3 and Rowell 4.

Hopefully, Reimold is off the prospect list next year :clap3:

edit: In case it isn't clear, I mean due to call up this year.

[LookinUp]

Law was just on ESPN making the Tex comparison and I think he has Smoak ahead of Alvarez.

This is a point that needs to be examined. People are comparing Smoak to Teixeira because he plays 1b, switch hits and hits for power. However, Teixeira was the elite prospect the year he came out. They may be comps, but if I were to predict - based only on what I've heard - I'd say most "experts" don't predict that Smoak will actually be as good as Teixeira.

Alternatively, if people think they are comparable players, he should be as highly rated to every team as he is to Sports Guy.

Am I right?

[erb8472]

This is a point that needs to be examined. People are comparing Smoak to Teixeira because he plays 1b, switch hits and hits for power. However, Teixeira was the elite prospect the year he came out. They may be comps, but if I were to predict - based only on what I've heard - I'd say most "experts" don't predict that Smoak will actually be as good as Teixeira.

Alternatively, if people think they are comparable players, he should be as highly rated to every team as he is to Sports Guy.

Am I right?

How many people compared Wieters to Varitek last year because of similar comparisons?

[LookinUp]

How many people compared Wieters to Varitek last year because of similar comparisons?

A lot, but Weiters' ceiling as a batter is actually higher than Varitek's IMO. Also, he's known to be a leader (like Varitek) and a very good defensive catcher.

With Smoak, I don't doubt that his glove compares. I'm questioning whether his bat compares. If it does, our pick should be a no-brainer. I just get the sense that, while he does have a solid bat, there are real questions about it among scouts - when compared to Tex that is.

[Mackus]

Behind only Wieters in terms of bats. Although I think Rowell probably has a higher upside.

Probably #4 prospect overall behind Wieters, Tillman, and Arrieta.