Someone please explain to me...

[eb45]

... why everyone thinks Tim Beckham is so great, and should be taken over Smoak, Matusz, Posey, or anyone else worthy of consideration at 1:4.

I'm not a professional scout, but why are there so many questions about Gordon Beckham's swing compared to very, very few about Tim's? To me, Tim's looks quite a bit worse from what I've seen, particularly the one on Camden Depot. I don't know if that's fully representative of what he'll be like, as that pitch looks to be a bit high, but it appears to me that he won't be able to drive the ball at all with such a short stride and very little use of his legs.

I understand Tim's a great fielder, and at SS that's more valuable than anywhere else, as well as having good speed. But I wouldn't take a guy with the fourth overall pick based on his fielding and running. If TBeckham can't hit, and I'm certainly not convinced he can, I really don't want him. If scouts think he'll be okay, I want to know why before I immediately hail him as a great pick and a steal at #4.

[Stotle]

... why everyone thinks Tim Beckham is so great, and should be taken over Smoak, Matusz, Posey, or anyone else worthy of consideration at 1:4.

I'm not a professional scout, but why are there so many questions about Gordon Beckham's swing compared to very, very few about Tim's? To me, Tim's looks quite a bit worse from what I've seen, particularly the one on Camden Depot. I don't know if that's fully representative of what he'll be like, as that pitch looks to be a bit high, but it appears to me that he won't be able to drive the ball at all with such a short stride and very little use of his legs.

I understand Tim's a great fielder, and at SS that's more valuable than anywhere else, as well as having good speed. But I wouldn't take a guy with the fourth overall pick based on his fielding and running. If TBeckham can't hit, and I'm certainly not convinced he can, I really don't want him. If scouts think he'll be okay, I want to know why before I immediately hail him as a great pick and a steal at #4.

It's about tool set. You can't compare Beckham's swing now to the swing of someone who just finished their junior year of college. You have to envision what Beckham's swing is capable of looking like after three years of professional development. The fielding and running are very important, but I agree they aren't enough to warrant 1:4 consideration. Last summer is when he jumped to the top of everyone's boards, mostly because he was playing almost exclusively against the best HS competition in the country and was consistently the most impressive talent on the field. His numbers ended up looking like this for the circuit:

Summer Circuit:
At Bats – 132
Hits – 54
Doubles – 15
Triples – 8
Homeruns – 9
Runs Batted In – 38
Batting Average – .409
Slugging – .848
Total Bases – 112
Stolen Bases – 32

He was just really impressive when placed side by side with the best HS talent around.

[TyCobb]

Am I crazy for thinking Smoak is the best talent in the draft? GG potential 1st baseman, that is a switch hitter, that is middle of the order talent. It also seems to me that he only needs 2-3 years of minor league development before he can play in the bigs.

[Pruke]

Am I crazy for thinking Smoak is the best talent in the draft? GG potential 1st baseman, that is a switch hitter, that is middle of the order talent. It also seems to me that he only needs 2-3 years of minor league development before he can play in the bigs.

A lot of people think he is the most sure thing in the draft, with projectable power and a switch hitter at that.

If we ended up selecting him, I would be more than happy personally.

[hoosiers]

Am I crazy for thinking Smoak is the best talent in the draft? GG potential 1st baseman, that is a switch hitter, that is middle of the order talent. It also seems to me that he only needs 2-3 years of minor league development before he can play in the bigs.

I've not seen anyone mention Smoak in the top 3.

Smoak has a major power bat and may eventually be considered the best bat in this draft - but at this point that spot appears to be held by Alvarez while many believe Hosmer will be a better pro bat than Smoak as well.

I like Smoak just fine, but I think people get a little carried away and make him out to be something he's not. Smoak could turn an organizational weakness into a solid strength overnight and that is very tempting.

But we are picking fourth and, IMO, we can't afford to pass on a talent like Beckham if our scouts predict him as a plus SS or on Matusz if our scouts believe there is a high likelihood of BM becoming a 2 or better.

[Greg Pappas]

It's about tool set. You can't compare Beckham's swing now to the swing of someone who just finished their junior year of college. You have to envision what Beckham's swing is capable of looking like after three years of professional development. The fielding and running are very important, but I agree they aren't enough to warrant 1:4 consideration. Last summer is when he jumped to the top of everyone's boards, mostly because he was playing almost exclusively against the best HS competition in the country and was consistently the most impressive talent on the field. His numbers ended up looking like this for the circuit:

Summer Circuit:
At Bats – 132
Hits – 54
Doubles – 15
Triples – 8
Homeruns – 9
Runs Batted In – 38
Batting Average – .409
Slugging – .848
Total Bases – 112
Stolen Bases – 32

He was just really impressive when placed side by side with the best HS talent around.

Great post as usual... TBeck has the highest upside of any player in the draft, even more than, sniff, my boy Hosmer. :)

If TBeck drops to four, I imagine he's an Oriole.

[Sports Guy]

Great post as usual... TBeck has the highest upside of any player in the draft, even more than, sniff, my boy Hosmer. :)

If TBeck drops to four, I imagine he's an Oriole.

And if Tbeck is gone, Matusz is an Oriole.

[Greg Pappas]

And if Tbeck is gone, Matusz is an Oriole.

It appears so.

[paulcoates]

And if Tbeck is gone, Matusz is an Oriole.

What is it about Matusz that is so great. The article from yesterday's Sun didn't seem to be clamoring about him. From the way they talk about him, he shouldn't be a top 4 pick?

Fastball that tops out at 92? Great college numbers, but it is college. If he were right handed, my guess is that he is not this high

I am not saying the Orioles should reach here, but I would be happier if they took Smoak here if he were available.

[section18]

We cannot gamble.....I repeat.....We cannot gamble on a high school player with the 4th pick in the draft.

We need hitters and we need a lot of them. I would not take a pitcher with any of our first five picks. We should take all hitters and try to re-stock our farm system and major league roster in the next two years with college hitters. If Smoak is there we should take him. Pittsburgh or KC could surprise and take him with the second or third pick. I hope not but if it happens it means we will probably get Alvarez. If we take Matusz it means we are going to probably deal Cabrera, Loewen or Burres in a package?

We cannot gamble..... AM and JJ .....We cannot gamble with a high school player with our first pick.

[TyCobb]

It's about tool set. You can't compare Beckham's swing now to the swing of someone who just finished their junior year of college. You have to envision what Beckham's swing is capable of looking like after three years of professional development. The fielding and running are very important, but I agree they aren't enough to warrant 1:4 consideration. Last summer is when he jumped to the top of everyone's boards, mostly because he was playing almost exclusively against the best HS competition in the country and was consistently the most impressive talent on the field. His numbers ended up looking like this for the circuit:

Summer Circuit:
At Bats – 132
Hits – 54
Doubles – 15
Triples – 8
Homeruns – 9
Runs Batted In – 38
Batting Average – .409
Slugging – .848
Total Bases – 112
Stolen Bases – 32

He was just really impressive when placed side by side with the best HS talent around.


Smoak at 6’4” 215 pounds has a baseball body. A nice fluid swing from both sides of the plate.

Beckham at 6'2" 190 pounds with only 5 hrs in HS screams poor bat speed. I am going to be extremely dissappointed if we take Beckhman with Smoak on the board.

[Stotle]

What is it about Matusz that is so great. The article from yesterday's Sun didn't seem to be clamoring about him. From the way they talk about him, he shouldn't be a top 4 pick?

Fastball that tops out at 92? Great college numbers, but it is college. If he were right handed, my guess is that he is not this high

I am not saying the Orioles should reach here, but I would be happier if they took Smoak here if he were available.

If he lengthens his stride he could add a couple mphs on his velocity.

He combines a good arsenal with above-average command. He is an advanced pitcher with a history of success and still room to improve (because a couple of simple mechanical modifications could have dramatic effects). His motion is easy and repeatable, meaning little adjustments should not be problematic (throw other aspects of his delivery out of whack).

[Stotle]

Smoak at 6’4” 215 pounds has a baseball body. A nice fluid swing from both sides of the plate.

Beckham at 6'2" 190 pounds with only 5 hrs in HS screams poor bat speed. I am going to be extremely dissappointed if we take Beckhman with Smoak on the board.

Again, you are compairing a soon-to-be college senior (age-wise) with a HS grad. Bat speed has never been called into question with Beckham. In fact, he has been praised for his twitch speed. There is a lot to clean-up with his swing, but those numbers I highlighted were with this "problematic" swing against the top HS competition out there. I'd say once that swing is cleaned up he could absolutely rake (which is why so many boards have him as the top overall talent).

[Leitch]

What is it about Matusz that is so great. The article from yesterday's Sun didn't seem to be clamoring about him. From the way they talk about him, he shouldn't be a top 4 pick?

Fastball that tops out at 92? Great college numbers, but it is college. If he were right handed, my guess is that he is not this high

My understanding is that his fastball plays up because of control and top-shelf offspeed stuff. Sounds to me like his upside is Bedard lite and his downside is generic Major league lefty, which sounds pretty good to me.

Would I rather have the big upside tools guy like Beckham or Hosmer or the sure thing college slugger? Sure, but it's not like Matusz is a reach at #4.

[TyCobb]

Again, you are compairing a soon-to-be college senior (age-wise) with a HS grad. Bat speed has never been called into question with Beckham. In fact, he has been praised for his twitch speed. There is a lot to clean-up with his swing, but those numbers I highlighted were with this "problematic" swing against the top HS competition out there. I'd say once that swing is cleaned up he could absolutely rake (which is why so many boards have him as the top overall talent).

I don't think it is as easy as you think to fix a batters swing.

I not really compairing them really. I was just pointing out that Beckham is a huge kid for highschool standards and doesn't show that much power (relative since this is coming from a kid that never hit a HR in HS). To me that is a red flag. With someone of Smoak talent possible available I think it would be insane to pass up. I would prefer the O's go to the safer pick and get Smoak.

[Stotle]

I don't think it is as easy as you think to fix a batters swing.

I not really compairing them really. I was just pointing out that Beckham is a huge kid for highschool standards and doesn't show that much power (relative since this is coming from a kid that never hit a HR in HS). To me that is a red flag. With someone of Smoak talent possible available I think it would be insane to pass up. I would prefer the O's go to the safer pick and get Smoak.

I'm pretty comfortable with what it takes to work on a swing, especially the 17-19 year old range.

Beckham isn't showing power for two reasons:

1) his weight starts too heavily on his back foot and when he transfers in his stride he throws too much forward too quickly. As a result, his hips fly open too early and he hits off his front foot.

2) His game is not a power game right now. He has been content with spraying line drives (which he has easily accomplished with quick hands and superior hand-eye coordination) and running like mad once he gets on base. It's incredibly effective at the HS level.

Despite his mechanical shortcomings, he has showed the potential for plus-power. He is a coachable athlete with a sky-high tool set. Three years of professional coaching and development, I believe, could do wonders.

I have no problem with anyone who wants Smoak -- he just shouldn't be used as an means to point out perceived shortcomings in T-Bex. The kid can play and, while he may be a greater risk I wouldn't say it's by a huge margin.

Thanks for the interesting discussion.

[TyCobb]

Oh I am not comparing Smoak to Beckham at all. I understand there is a huge different at ages.

You are probably right about his Beckham's problems. I just don't feel they can be corrected as quickly as saying "Do this, Don't do this". There for I don't want to take the risk of drafting Beckham with Smoak there.

[Stotle]

Oh I am not comparing Smoak to Beckham at all. I understand there is a huge different at ages.

You are probably right about his Beckham's problems. I just don't feel they can be corrected as quickly as saying "Do this, Don't do this". There for I don't want to take the risk of drafting Beckham with Smoak there.

Understood. I have some strong feelings about draftees and I realize it isn't always the popular view. I usually take the tool set and skill position over the surer thing. It's not right or wrong, just my preference.

[wayne25]

My understanding is that his fastball plays up because of control and top-shelf offspeed stuff. Sounds to me like his upside is Bedard lite and his downside is generic Major league lefty, which sounds pretty good to me.

Would I rather have the big upside tools guy like Beckham or Hosmer or the sure thing college slugger? Sure, but it's not like Matusz is a reach at #4.

gENERIC major league lefty "sounds pretty goood to you?". AT #4 OVERALL.