My understanding of our direction...

[bigbird]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

[The Wedge]

That sounds about how I figured they'd aim. No surprises, really, well maybe Huff being an attraction. I hope your guy is right and the chips fall in the correct manner.

[dtk9119]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

After tonight, this can't be soon enough... thanks BB.

[mweb]

I'm not too happy with about half of that, and have a feeling some prominent board members will feel the same way. 3, 5, and 6 are the problems imo, well depending on what type of vet SP and SS we are talking about, and who we have to give up to get them.

I'm also not nearly as high on #1 as most on here, I think Tex is overrated on here, and he won't be worth the type of contract that is often thrown around here.

[BRob51]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

Awesome man, thanks. Do you know if we miss out on Tex if we will go after Dunn or some other big bat?

[clapdiddy]

BB, please tell me we are looking for a shortstop now. I don't know how long I can watch the current mess we have at the position right now.

[Pushmonkey]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

Any gut feelings on the pitching staff?

[The Wedge]

BB, please tell me we are looking for a shortstop now. I don't know how long I can watch the current mess we have at the position right now.

You don't need BB to tell you that...there's been several reports of them looking at several SS's...Lopez, Eckstein, etc.

[Peace21]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.
2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

Will the O's be doing the same for Roberts as well, to keep him here?

btw, this thread makes tonights loss not so bad.

[ChaosLex]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

It's a start, but there's so much more that needs to be done before we're contending.

Do you still get the same feeling about MacPhail, bb? I'm talking about, paper... plastic... paper... plastic... paper...

[Pushmonkey]

Will the O's be doing the same for Roberts as well, to keep him here?

btw, this thread makes tonights loss not so bad.

The game tonight was what we all feared/expected the season to be like.

[ATO UMD]

What's the point of having Nolan Reimold ride the pine all year or play in a limited role? Unless, of course, they don't see him as being an everyday player when they scout him-- not that his numbers warrant such an evaluation.

And doesn't such a plan signal that they think they're only a couple of pieces away? Adding Tex and a shortstop does not seem to mesh with the whole "rebuild" philosophy.

[ChaosLex]

You don't need BB to tell you that...there's been several reports of them looking at several SS's...Lopez, Eckstein, etc.

Lillibridge's trade value is at an all-time low.

/just sayin'

[bigbird]

BB, please tell me we are looking for a shortstop now. I don't know how long I can watch the current mess we have at the position right now.


Yes we are and every GM knows we are.......

[The Wedge]

What's the point of having Nolan Reimold ride the pine all year or play in a limited role? Unless, of course, they don't see him as being an everyday player when they scout him-- not that his numbers warrant such an evaluation.

And doesn't such a plan signal that they think they're only a couple of pieces away? Adding Tex and a shortstop does not seem to mesh with the whole "rebuild" philosophy.

Tex is "relatively" young and if you sign him long term...it fits.

As for Reimold...maybe he's become a trade chip?

[vatech1994]

OK, this is one way to go. I can't really argue that this isn't a reasonable approach. Tex won't be worth what we give him, but he will be extremely valuable to this team. A switch hitting power hitter who plays gold glove defense at first? I don't think any of us are going to care that he makes 20 mil per year and should make 15 mil.

I do agree that we're going to need one more starter next year besides what our MiL can supply. Loewen, Albers, and now, possibly, Spoone really hit our ML ready pitching talent. For two years I've read threads on here about how we target too much young pitching yet we never have enough to last through the season. I think maybe it is time for some of us to stop spouting that we target too much pitching until we actually have guys waiting in the MiL that can't get here because we're full of studs.

[bigbird]

It's a start, but there's so much more that needs to be done before we're contending.

Do you still get the same feeling about MacPhail, bb? I'm talking about, paper... plastic... paper... plastic... paper...


At least he has 8 months to make moves......

[clapdiddy]

You don't need BB to tell you that...there's been several reports of them looking at several SS's...Lopez, Eckstein, etc.

Ah yes...so true...but its just the media talking. Granted, where's there's smoke there's usually fire.

I just wanted to hear it from the man himself! ;)

[Peace21]

This offseason will be very fun here on the OH. By the Winter Meetings we will be Teixera'd out.

[ATO UMD]

Tex is "relatively" young and if you sign him long term...it fits.

As for Reimold...maybe he's become a trade chip?
Tex is relatively young, yes, but Scott, Huff and Roberts will all be over 30 and they will all be counted on as important pieces. One of the reasons people were clamoring to trade Roberts was that our best chance at a winner would probably be when B-Rob is well into his decline. Has the team's solid start changed this line of thinking?

[ChaosLex]

This offseason will be very fun here on the OH. By the Winter Meetings we will be Teixera'd out.

I honestly wouldn't be a bit surprised if a few Hangout members (perhaps even myself) dropped dead at their PC's during the Teixeira saga. And let's face it, regardless of whether or not Teixeira signs with us, it's going to be a saga.

[The Wedge]

Tex is relatively young, yes, but Scott, Huff and Roberts will all be over 30 and they will all be counted on as important pieces. One of the reasons people were clamoring to trade Roberts was that our best chance at a winner would probably be when B-Rob is well into his decline. Has the team's solid start changed this line of thinking?

Maybe, maybe not. I've always felt that Roberts could be our version of Tim Salmon. Maybe that's the way they're leaning, too.

Scott on the other hand may be around only long enough that he needs to be.

And I'm surprised that they consider Huff a piece, too, especially one that could be an attractive one to a guy like Tex.

[Ven6]

This 2009 lineup is exciting, even if SS is just a glove:

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Pitching is the real issue. Always has been, IMO. Starting pitching.

BB, love to know which prospects we have, if any, the front office is thinking could push to start next year?

[eddie83]

I agree with everything. I could see trading Huff under the right circumstances for sure but the thing I want is an upgrade to the rotation. I know quality pitchers don't grow on trees but I am sick and tired of seeing guys throw 100 pitches by the 5th inning. Even in games with comfortable leads Olson and Liz have problems. I am not giving up on these guys but it isn't acceptable major league pitching. Burres is a borderline starting pitcher in the big leagues at best. There is no need to rush up the other young arms we have either. The signing of Trachsel didn't work but the logic behind it made sense then and it still does now. Just because pitchers are young and might have upside doesn't mean they are major leaguers.

[Peace21]

Don't like the veteran starter...Don't like holding onto Sherrill and not maximizing his value. No problem with holding onto Roberts or trading him, whatever AM decides to do. And I certainly don't think we need those guys around to attract Tex.

It will help out. Big Time!

[bassgtrst]

I always enjoy your posts BB. Thanks for the info!

[rolliefingers]

This offseason will be very fun here on the OH. By the Winter Meetings we will be Teixera'd out.

By the Winter Meetings? I literally can't think of a single aspect of this story that we haven't covered 10 million times since the day he was drafted.

Also, BB, about half that plan sounds pretty lame, but I'm sure someone else will make the points I'm too lazy to make right now.

(Thumbnail sketch: keeping Sherrill and Huff is absolutely idiotic, assuming their trade value is even half as high as we think it is.)

[Anonymous]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP CInteresting, as always.

It's curious that Bradford wasn't mentioned in # 2 and that Quiroz apparently isn't pencilled in as the BKUP C. It also looks like the Scott Moore era has come and gone rather quickly, as he'll be out of options next year and would be unlikely to pass through waivers.

[Mackus]

Everything seems fairly reasonable.

Biggest thing I don't like is not trading Huff, but I'd be ok with it under the following circumstances:
a) we don't get a particularly large offer for him
b) the scenario where Scott is in LF, Huff at DH, Mora at 3B, and Reimold on the bench is changed to Reimold in LF, Scott at DH, Huff at 3B, and Mora on the bench

Like the idea of trading for both a 2-year stop gap and a younger prospect. Would probably be cheaper in terms of talent and more effective over both the short and long term than a legitimately good young, MLB-ready option right now.

[24fps]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.




1) I hope we don't go too far overboard. I'd like to have Teixiera a lot, but not at 20 per year.

2) I hope this happens.

3) I think this will be necessary even with our minor league "surplus".

4) OK. I wouldn't mind seeing him spend first half of next year in AAA.

5) The longer Huff stays off "Bubba the Love Sponge", and refrains from painting stripper's butts, the more he grows on me, so this is OK by me.

6) Like adding a veteran starter, I also think this is necessary. I still wouldn't mind AM trying to work out a reasonable deal for Ronny Cedeno.



Thanks for the insider fix. :thumbsup1:

[Peace21]

By the Winter Meetings? I literally can't think of a single aspect of this story that we haven't covered 10 million times since the day he was drafted.

Also, BB, about half that plan sounds pretty lame, but I'm sure someone else will make the points I'm too lazy to make right now.

I hear Teixera's aunts brothers best friend is a Nationals fan..:eek::laughlol:

[bigbird]

Maybe, maybe not. I've always felt that Roberts could be our version of Tim Salmon. Maybe that's the way they're leaning, too.

Scott on the other hand may be around only long enough that he needs to be.

And I'm surprised that they consider Huff a piece, too, especially one that could be an attractive one to a guy like Tex.

Tex wants to be in a winning situation and trading off a 40 game closer and a 30 HR DH will not help sell him to come here.

[Frobby]

Not a bad direction if you ask me.

[Peace21]

Tex wants to be in a winning situation and trading off a 40 game closer and a 30 HR DH will not help sell him to come here.

This is true.

[utvolzac]

For me personally, this is the exact opposite direction that I was hoping MacPhail would take.

I really hope they at least shop BRob to see if anyone will over-pay for him.

I'll be downright pissed if Sherrill is here past the trade deadline and we don't maximize his value. PISSED.

Also hoping we would sell high on Huff, I don't think he'll keep us this pace and really don't think it'll carry over till next season.

Count me in with the crowd who thinks Tex is overrated on this board. I say zero chance he lives up to the contract it'll take to get him here. Much rather look for a young blocked first baseman. I really hope your wrong and that MacPhail isn't keeping "veterans" around to try and attract Tex as a FA. I find it completely ridiculous that you would base the franchise direction around the hopes of signing one player. And it's not like Tex is the second coming of Babe Ruth. Big mistake, if this is true.

Oh well, the proper rebuilding strategy was nice for half a season.

[Pushmonkey]

The o's might play a lot of 9-8 games.

[Cokeman]

This offseason will be very fun here on the OH. By the Winter Meetings we will be Teixera'd out.

With Boras as his agent, that could drag on well into January...he's usually not in too big of a hurry to sign a contract.

[JTrea81]

It surprises me that we are building this whole team around Tex. Keeping guys we can ship off etc. I mean I really want the guy, but there is no guarantee he's going to sign here. At the end of the day we'll offer the most for sure, but there is no guarantee.

If we somehow don't land him, my guess is all the trades that would have occurred at the deadline, will occur this offseason...

[Mackus]

Will they look to deal Cabrera?

I'd love to get him in a different uniform and get some talent back for him.

[TheBee]

Not a bad direction if you ask me.

Agreed. And thanks to Bigbird for the information.
Any chance the veteran pitcher is another semi - local boy in Burnett?

[rolliefingers]

Tex wants to be in a winning situation and trading off a 40 game closer and a 30 HR DH will not help sell him to come here.

If this is the rationale they're using to keep Huff and Sherrill, then I'd rather not have Tex.

They'd be signing Tex for 5-7 years - are either of those guys going to be even playing beer league softball in 5-7 years? Not bloody likely.

Either Tex wants to come here or he doesn't. The rebuild should continue regardless.

[utvolzac]

Tex wants to be in a winning situation and trading off a 40 game closer and a 30 HR DH will not help sell him to come here.

If MacPhail is basing the entire direction of the franchise off the hopes of signing Texeira, then I have officially lost faith in him. That's insane. I highly doubt Teixeira is the savior of the franchise.

[rolliefingers]

If MacPhail is basing the entire direction of the franchise off the hopes of signing Texeira, then I have officially lost faith in him. That's insane. I highly doubt Teixeira is the savior of the franchise.

QFT.

Tex is a very good player, and I'd love to have him, even at $20M/yr. But he's not the "final piece" to make a very good team into a great one. He's a very big and good piece, but not the final one.

Keep your eye on the ball, MacPhail!

[tennOsfan]

There will be a collective slitting of the wrists on OH if Tex doesn't sign.

No, not "if." Probably should have said "when."

[33rdst]

I agree with the direction and I think it is the most realistic appraoch MacPhail can take. Certainly there is no guarentee that TEX will sign here, so I hope there is a plan B. I agree with the philosophy that we have a veteran starter to stabalize the rotation. The wisdom of this will become more evident as we continue into this current season. Now, let's trade Hernandez and get this show on the road.

[rolliefingers]

There will be a collective slitting of the wrists if Tex doesn't sign.

No, not "if." Probably should have said "when."

If Tex = no more rebuild, then I bet a good part of this board will be quite alright with it, myself included.

[ATO UMD]

If this is the rationale they're using to keep Huff and Sherrill, then I'd rather not have Tex.

They'd be signing Tex for 5-7 years - are either of those guys going to be even playing beer league softball in 5-7 years? Not bloody likely.

Either Tex wants to come here or he doesn't. The rebuild should continue regardless.

Agreed with all of the above. I know Reimold is by no means a proven commodity, but not even giving him a shot with his track record is a mistake, in my opinion.

That, and this plan still relies heavily on our young pitching, which is what we need to do as a rebuilding team but certainly won't let us be a contender by any stretch.

[DoobyDoo]

I hope you're wrong. I can understand hanging onto Roberts, but there's no way we should keep Huff. This is the first good year he's had since 2004. The highest OPS he's had during that time before this year was .819. His value will never be higher, and we need to take advantage of that now. If we're holding off on trading players because we want to sign Teixeira, then it really sounds like Angelos is interfering again.

[Boston Dave]

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

I doubt they bring Reimold up to rot on the bench. If he's ready, he plays. I like it better as Reimold in LF, Scott DH\LF, Huff at 3b\DH, and Mora PH\3B\DH.

[Mackus]

Tex needs to know the team isn't built to compete in 2009, even with him.

We won't be true competitors until some of Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Hernandez, Spoone, and the rest are starting in Baltimore. They may start by the end of 2009, but they won't be big assets until 2010 at the earliest.

I'm fine with signing some guys to short term deals for 2009, and even trading some fringe guys, but if we trade someone like Arrieta for a mediocre pitcher to contend in 2009, I'll also be off the MacPhail trade.

Fortunately, the odds of that happening are still quite slim I think. He'll go after Tex, but won't go unbelievably crazy. And if he lands him, he'll still make moves that build us into a contender for 2010 and beyond, not just 2009 and deal away Tillman and his friends.

[blueberryale77]

If MacPhail is basing the entire direction of the franchise off the hopes of signing Texeira, then I have officially lost faith in him. That's insane. I highly doubt Teixeira is the savior of the franchise.

Agreed. This is way to gimmicky of a solution to possibly work. To quote Melvin Mora from a few years ago, "who's going to pitch for us?"

Is there any chance this plan is subject to change if the team completely stinks it up between now and the deadline as it currently appears they're poised to do?

[JTrea81]

From what I can see with this plan, we are going to try to become the Texas Rangers in 2009 and try to outslug our opponents while our young arms are still learning on the job. The only difference is we have the pitching depth that the Rangers didn't...

[larrytt]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C
Any chance of Huff at third, Reimold in LF, Scott at DH? This would be to get Reimold's bat in place of Mora's.
-Larrytt

[tennOsfan]

I hope you're wrong. I can understand hanging onto Roberts, but there's no way we should keep Huff. This is the first good year he's had since 2004. The highest OPS he's had during that time before this year was .819. His value will never be higher, and we need to take advantage of that now. If we're holding off on trading players because we want to sign Teixeira, then it really sounds like Angelos is interfering again.

If we can nab someone decent for Huff this month, we ought to consider it. He might get us a shortstop we can live with for several years.

If Tex doesn't like that, then he's not that smart.

[ATO UMD]

From what I can see with this plan, we are going to try to become the Texas Rangers in 2009 and try to outslug our opponents while our young arms are still learning on the job. The only difference is we have the pitching depth that the Rangers didn't...
Yeah, but we also don't play in Arlington for 81 games of the year.

[stef]

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to bigbird again."

Thanks, bigbird, for the info.

Can't say that I like it too much, though.

[24fps]

For me personally, this is the exact opposite direction that I was hoping MacPhail would take.

I really hope they at least shop BRob to see if anyone will over-pay for him.

I'll be downright pissed if Sherrill is here past the trade deadline and we don't maximize his value. PISSED.

Also hoping we would sell high on Huff, I don't think he'll keep us this pace and really don't think it'll carry over till next season.

Count me in with the crowd who thinks Tex is overrated on this board. I say zero chance he lives up to the contract it'll take to get him here. Much rather look for a young blocked first baseman. I really hope your wrong and that MacPhail isn't keeping "veterans" around to try and attract Tex as a FA. I find it completely ridiculous that you would base the franchise direction around the hopes of signing one player. And it's not like Tex is the second coming of Babe Ruth. Big mistake, if this is true.

Oh well, the proper rebuilding strategy was nice for half a season.

In over a year now, I've seen no indication that AM willing to rebuild by totally gutting an entire season in the interests of ideological purity as many on this board (myself included) might prefer.

If I'm correct about that, then BB's conversation reflects a middle ground approach that's not so bad. My biggest worries are overpaying for Teixiera and rushing Weiters.

If Teixiera is genuinely out-of-reach, then not acquiring a young blocked 1B as you suggest would really be foolish IMO.

[YardBirds13]

My thoughts:

Don't really have a problem not dealing BRob. I've wavered back and forth on the idea, and I think I'm probably in the keep him and extend him camp. I just think he is still going to be a good player for another 3 or 4 years at least, probably longer.

Huff, if there is a big deal out there we need to make it. Same goes for Sherrill. I can't believe that Tex is going to look at us dealing Sherrill and Huff and think "Holy Crap, they dealt Aubrey Huff and George Sherrill, they're screwed next year!"

I think keeping BRob may affect how Tex looks at it. I really doubt the other two do.

The veteran arm doesn't bother me as long as we aren't giving up anything important to get it. An innings-eater type is fine with me, Marquis was discussed earlier in an attempt to get rid of Bradford and Payton, maybe even bringing a guy like Cedeno back. That would kill two birds with one stone, and we could suffer through paying Marquis 9M next year.

So basically I'm cool with keeping and extending BRob and throwing the bank at Tex. Not cool with ignoring offers on Sherrill (especially) and Huff. Should also really be selling DCab. I'm ok with the veteran starter as long as he isnt too expensive, player wise. I also really think that if Reimold shows he can play up here that Huff needs to play third next year, Scott needs to go to DH and Mora needs to become that super-UTI guy that we've talked about.

Let's say we get Tex, and we pull off a Payton/Bradford for Marquis/Cedeno deal. In this scenario we also would have dealt Ramon and Walker, presumably not for much.

2009:

Roberts 2B
Markakis RF
Huff 3B
Teixeira 1B
Jones CF
Scott DH
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Cedeno SS

Quiroz, Mora, Millar, 4th Bench Guy

Guthrie, Cabrera, Marquis, Olson, Bergeson/Penn/Hernandez

Sherrill, Johnson, Sarfate, Bierd, Liz, Albers, Burress?, etc

That's assuming we don't deal Sherrill or DCab. Depending on how the young pitchers advance, that team could be pretty interesting to watch, especially if guys like Tillman and Arrieta could make some noise midway through the season.

[ChaosLex]

From what I can see with this plan, we are going to try to become the Texas Rangers in 2009 and try to outslug our opponents while our young arms are still learning on the job. The only difference is we have the pitching depth that the Rangers didn't...

If that's the approach we're going to take, I wonder if we're going to throw the bank at Teixeira AND Dunn.

[tennOsfan]

Agreed. This is way to gimmicky of a solution to possibly work. To quote Melvin Mora from a few years ago, "who's going to pitch for us?"

Is there any chance this plan is subject to change if the team completely stinks it up between now and the deadline as it currently appears they're poised to do?

Yeah, who is going to pitch for us?

The better question is exactly what would be getting for that FA money if we went for pitching instead of Tex? I can point to way too many FA pitchers who have been big-money busts lately.

If they're going to break the piggy bank on one player, Tex isn't a bad way to go. But remember, the thinking is to trade for a pitcher also. Certainly, we need more organizational depth pitching-wise -- not as much as perhaps two years ago, but we still need it. I'm sure AM knows this and will do what he can.

[larrytt]

2009:

Roberts 2B
Markakis RF
Huff DH
Teixeira 1B
Jones CF
Scott DH
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Cedeno SS

You probably want to move Huff to 3rd, or there'll be a big hole there. Don't think they allow two DH's. :)
-Larrytt

[Pushmonkey]

instead of it's the economy stupid..it's the pitching stupid.

[Mackus]

If the plan is firm to keep Sherrill and Huff, then I think its flawed. I think its nonsense to suggest Tex would sign here if we keep them but not if we trade them. Thats absurd.

I don't mind keeping them if we don't get good offers, but if he's only gonna move them if he's completely bowled over, and the reasoning is to make Tex happy, then the plan is inherently stupid. Since I don't think MacPhail is inherently stupid, I'm gonna continue to expect him to have these guys available for the right deals, but to need a pretty good return to move them. Huff would require much less than the others though, IMO. Sell high.

[elsid]

If this is the rationale they're using to keep Huff and Sherrill, then I'd rather not have Tex.

They'd be signing Tex for 5-7 years - are either of those guys going to be even playing beer league softball in 5-7 years? Not bloody likely.

Either Tex wants to come here or he doesn't. The rebuild should continue regardless.

It is not the rational to keep Huff and Sherrill. Their plan is to keep them whether Teix signs here or not.

I would like to think that my brother could be an effective LOOGY for another 5-7 years in the MAJORS, much less your beer league.


If MacPhail is basing the entire direction of the franchise off the hopes of signing Texeira, then I have officially lost faith in him. That's insane. I highly doubt Teixeira is the savior of the franchise.

It is not necessarily the entire direction, but it is at least a direction. You can't put your hope in 8 top 10 prospects and 4 top 25 prospects who all play for different teams, that you think you might get by trading what you have.

Currently, the most valuable "chips", which aren't that tradeable right now, are the ones they want to build with. If you think that Roberts, Sherrill and Huff are that tradeable, then you are fooling yourselves. There are not many teams, if any at all, looking to gain these guys right now. Huff and Sherrill could have some possibility, depending on what else moves before the deadline.

[utvolzac]

QFT.

Tex is a very good player, and I'd love to have him, even at $20M/yr. But he's not the "final piece" to make a very good team into a great one. He's a very big and good piece, but not the final one.

Keep your eye on the ball, MacPhail!

I'm all for going after Teixeira, if he wants to come here. But in no way should we deviate from a long term direction for this franchise, just to satisfy one player. Teix is an great player, but he's not exactly Pujols.

I don't even want to think what would happen if we build the team around Tex, spend 20-25 million a year for him for 5-8 years, then he gets hurt or doesn't produce.

I'd much rather play the odds and sell high on Sherrill & Huff. Huff is hot right now, but this was a guy we all couldn't wait to get rid of a few months ago, and aside from his good year in Tampa, he hasn't consistantly put up great numbers.

Sherrill is good, but you have to believe that his value will never be high and relievers are volitale from year to year. We have Ray coming back and Jim Johnson in-house who could most likely close.

Silly not to at least heavily shop these guys. Especially when you consider the lack of offensive depth in our farm system and the age of most of our offensive players.

[utvolzac]

Currently, the most valuable "chips", which aren't that tradeable right now, are the ones they want to build with. If you think that Roberts, Sherrill and Huff are that tradeable, then you are fooling yourselves. There are not many teams, if any at all, looking to gain these guys right now. Huff and Sherrill could have some possibility, depending on what else moves before the deadline.

So the same guys we're supposed to build the foundation of our club around aren't worth anything on the trade market? That makes sense.

I find it hard to believe that nobody is in the market for an all-star caliber lead off man, a proven closer or a hot bat heading into the playoffs. Especially relief pitching, a contending team cannot have enough relief pitching heading into the post-season. Teams are notorious for over-paying at the deadline for solid relief pitching.

The trade market isn't there if your trying to fleese every team that inquires about those players, but there are certainly packages of young talent that would make sense for a rebuilding team like the O's.

Nothing against Sherrill, I think at worst he'll be a solid LOOGY for the rest of his career, I just think you have to sell high right now. Same for Huff. Especially Huff, since he's having such a vastly different season this year.

[elsid]

If the plan is firm to keep Sherrill and Huff, then I think its flawed. I think its nonsense to suggest Tex would sign here if we keep them but not if we trade them. Thats absurd.

I don't mind keeping them if we don't get good offers, but if he's only gonna move them if he's completely bowled over, and the reasoning is to make Tex happy, then the plan is inherently stupid. Since I don't think MacPhail is inherently stupid, I'm gonna continue to expect him to have these guys available for the right deals, but to need a pretty good return to move them. Huff would require much less than the others though, IMO. Sell high.

The reasoning isn't just to make Teix happy. The reason is to build a team that can play next year and draw next year.

Look at it this way...If McPhail were to trade BRob, Huff and Sherrill + let whomever else walk that could walk, what free agents would sign in Baltimore, even for top dollar?

I would say that answer would be 0. There are not many people who want to be part of a full rebuilding process. Most free agents are in that category. There are not that many that just try to go after the money. Yes, there are plenty that want to get paid, but they will take less to play somewhere that they have a chance. If you trade away 2 fan favorites and one really good player from the team, not only does your fan base subside to a certain extent, but many free agents will see that as something that don't necessarily want to be part of.

You don't have to agree, but I saw the same thing happen in Seattle. They were stuck signing Suxson (yes, I spelled it like that) and Beltre. Beltre went for the money, as did Suxson. They tried to make it work, but they traded a lot to get Bedard and found out where it hurt them more than helped them.

[Greg Pappas]

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.


Rockies... Clint Barmes (ML) and Hector Gomez (A+) ?

If he's available, I prefer Hardy.

[elsid]

So the same guys we're supposed to build the foundation of our club around aren't worth anything on the trade market? That makes sense.

I find it hard to believe that nobody is in the market for an all-star caliber lead off man, a proven closer or a hot bat heading into the playoffs. Especially relief pitching, a contending team cannot have enough relief pitching heading into the post-season. Teams are notorious for over-paying at the deadline for solid relief pitching.

The trade market isn't there if your trying to fleese every team that inquires about those players, but there are certainly packages of young talent that would make sense for a rebuilding team like the O's.

Nothing against Sherrill, I think at worst he'll be a solid LOOGY for the rest of his career, I just think you have to sell high right now. Same for Huff. Especially Huff, since he's having such a vastly different season this year.

Sure, you could trade any of them for next to nothing. However, lately, there has not been any inquires on any of these guys.

There aren't any contending teams looking to pay top dollar for Roberts. The O's want too much for him. Everyone that would want Sherrill would only use him as a LOOGY. Therefore that is mid-level prospect at best (value would diminish due to role diminishment). Is that worth trading. Huff hasn't drawn any interest, although he might due to his full June being really good.

[MJA3488]

Just to throw my 2 cents in here, bigbird's info is VERY consistent with what I have been hearing over over the last 2 months

[wildcard]

There better be a plan B. Both the Yankees and the Mets need to get younger and need a 1B.

[vatech1994]

So the same guys we're supposed to build the foundation of our club around aren't worth anything on the trade market? That makes sense.

I find it hard to believe that nobody is in the market for an all-star caliber lead off man, a proven closer or a hot bat heading into the playoffs. Especially relief pitching, a contending team cannot have enough relief pitching heading into the post-season. Teams are notorious for over-paying at the deadline for solid relief pitching.

The trade market isn't there if your trying to fleese every team that inquires about those players, but there are certainly packages of young talent that would make sense for a rebuilding team like the O's.

Nothing against Sherrill, I think at worst he'll be a solid LOOGY for the rest of his career, I just think you have to sell high right now. Same for Huff. Especially Huff, since he's having such a vastly different season this year.

All of these types of posts ASSUME Sherrill and Huff have significantly increased in value because of what they've done this year. I'm just not sure I agree with that at all. I agree that either COULD increase in value if an important player goes down at their position on a contender.

Say Rivera, Wood, or Papelbon went down for the year tomorrow. I agree that Sherrill would gain huge value. But, as of now, which contending team is looking for a closer to the point that their desperate? Milwaukee wants somebody, but they aren't desperate. They were desperate for a starter, which they got.

Huff is the same way. If Big Poppy was suddenly out for the year, I would agree that Boston might give up significant value for Huff. However, none of the contending teams has lost an important player at DH, 3B, or 1B for the rest of the season unless I'm missing something.

Teams get desperate when they are poised and suffer a big injury. They don't get desperate for an extra cog that would be nice but not necessary.

BTW, I agree that nobody worth a crap comes here as an FA if we trade all of our good players for prospects. You have to keep some sort of nucleus of 6-8 guys around. Only the money guys will sign here if we gut it too far.

My 2 cents.

[TonySoprano]

What is "Plan B" from the front office assuming we don't get Teixeira?

[wildcard]

What is "Plan B" from the front office assuming we don't get Teixeira?

Maybe Dunn at DH and Huff at 1B?

[El Gordo]

So the same guys we're supposed to build the foundation of our club around aren't worth anything on the trade market? That makes sense.

I find it hard to believe that nobody is in the market for an all-star caliber lead off man, a proven closer or a hot bat heading into the playoffs. Especially relief pitching, a contending team cannot have enough relief pitching heading into the post-season. Teams are notorious for over-paying at the deadline for solid relief pitching.

The trade market isn't there if your trying to fleese every team that inquires about those players, but there are certainly packages of young talent that would make sense for a rebuilding team like the O's.

Nothing against Sherrill, I think at worst he'll be a solid LOOGY for the rest of his career, I just think you have to sell high right now. Same for Huff. Especially Huff, since he's having such a vastly different season this year.
Instead of finding this hard to believe, why don't you try to come up with a list of teams that would have a strong need for Roberts Sherrill and Huff at the deadline. I think you will find the list for BRob and Huff will be very short, and the return would be less than their value to the O's. Sherrill's list would be longer but the return not much more, if not less.

[TonySoprano]

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.I don't expect great savings here because we'll likely have to send a Brinks truck full of cash to whatever team takes these guys off our hands.

[utvolzac]

Instead of finding this hard to believe, why don't you try to come up with a list of teams that would have a strong need for Roberts Sherrill and Huff at the deadline. I think you will find the list for BRob and Huff will be very short, and the return would be less than their value to the O's. Sherrill's list would be longer but the return not much more, if not less.

There was just a thread started a few days ago listing all the contending teams and needs going into the playoffs.

The Angels couldn't use Huffs bat to add some pop to their offense?

Detroit, Tampa Bay couldn't use Sherrill as a closer? The Rangers got 3 players for Gagne last year and he wasn't even a good closer at the time. San Diego got 3 players (2 of which are currently among the Pads top 10 prospects going into 2008) and Linebrink wasn't even a closer. Teams historically over pay for pitching going into the playoffs.

I'm sure the White Sox would have at least some interest in BRob unless their sold on Alexei Ramirez' small sample sizes. Considering his contract and the fact that he's under control of another year, Roberts is a steal.

I don't see how these guys don't have any value on the trade market. You may not be able to fleese or get blow away, or whatever other clieshe people use around here to validate a trade, but you can get a significant package of prospects for these guys.

Just my Opinion.

[PoorMike]

I doubt they bring Reimold up to rot on the bench. If he's ready, he plays. I like it better as Reimold in LF, Scott DH\LF, Huff at 3b\DH, and Mora PH\3B\DH.

Yes, that is a flaw in this setup. You don't put a young player on the bench. Either he plays or he is in AAA.

I can live with the plan in general, but looking at a lineup where the SS is not only faceless, but it's unknown what it will take to get him, is not that constructive. I love BB's posts, and this is not about him. I take it at face value, but I just can't derive that much from it right now. Again, it's not about BB or the info; others have made lineups with "SS prospect" in it and I've said the same thing.

Lastly, is there a plan B in case we don't get Teix?

[El Gordo]

There was just a thread started a few days ago listing all the contending teams and needs going into the playoffs.

The Angels couldn't use Huffs bat to add some pop to their offense?

Detroit, Tampa Bay couldn't use Sherrill as a closer? The Rangers got 3 players for Gagne last year and he wasn't even a good closer at the time. San Diego got 3 players (2 of which are currently among the Pads top 10 prospects going into 2008) and Linebrink wasn't even a closer. Teams historically over pay for pitching going into the playoffs.

I'm sure the White Sox would have at least some interest in BRob unless their sold on Alexei Ramirez' small sample sizes. Considering his contract and the fact that he's under control of another year, Roberts is a steal.

I don't see how these guys don't have any value on the trade market. You may not be able to fleese or get blow away, or whatever other clieshe people use around here to validate a trade, but you can get a significant package of prospects for these guys.

Just my Opinion.I read the thread. You've named 4 teams with a possible interest in Brob, Huff and Sherrill. I think that proves my point. That's not a lot of interest and the return is questionable in my mind. It's certainly not a slam dunk that we would be able to trade all 3 and get a boatload of prospects from these 4 teams. The needs of these teams aren't all that pressing, The White Sox have Ramirez, Tampa has an interest in Fuentes, and have been doing pretty well with what they have at closer, Detroit may not even be in contention, LAAA would have to get rid of Matthews or Anderson to play Huff at DH and is looking at Holliday, Bay, and Nady as well. Just what do you expect these teams to give up? Boston could use some middle relief help. I'm sure they would be happy to offer Lugo for Sherrill, but don't expect Lowrie.

[El Gordo]

Yes, that is a flaw in this setup. You don't put a young player on the bench. Either he plays or he is in AAA.

I can live with the plan in general, but looking at a lineup where the SS is not only faceless, but it's unknown what it will take to get him, is not that constructive. I love BB's posts, and this is not about him. I take it at face value, but I just can't derive that much from it right now. Again, it's not about BB or the info; others have made lineups with "SS prospect" in it and I've said the same thing.

Lastly, is there a plan B in case we don't get Teix? That's my first question. Besides Dunn I can't see any other FA options.

[JTrea81]

Lastly, is there a plan B in case we don't get Teix?

Kevin Millar.

[geschinger]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

Sounds like a recipe to put a pretty good and competetive team on the field but one that aint gonna be a threat to be a serious contender.

[luismatos]

I don't know if anyone noticed but our lineup would be very left-handed. I mean, yes three of those guys would be switch hitters, but if my memore serves me correctly all three are significantly better hitters from the left side than the right side. So, when we face lefties our lineup would be pretty dismal. So, I think for that reason (and because I still disagree with what he said this offseason and think he should be in another uniform because of it) Huff needs to go. He should be traded and a right handed hitter should be brought in. At this point there would be Mora, Jones, and more than likely whatever ss we get as the only right handed batters on the team. Jones being the only one that should maybe be in the top 6 in the batting order next yeas. I think it is very necessary that we get a right handed bat for the top of the order. Maybe a guy to bat second with some speed and push nick the stick back to the three hole.

Anyway, I very much agree that we should get rid of Ramon, Walker, and Payton. Like I said, I think Huff should go. I like BRob and want him to stay, but I'd listen to offers. I think Sherrill could be very valuable to this team for many years to come (even if not in the closer's role), so I would be hesitant to trade him, but again I'd listen to offers. I think it is the right decision to get a veteran starter mostly because our bullpen is getting injured/worn out like crazy because we don't have enough starters going deep into games and so our relievers are getting over-worked, which I think has been one of our biggest problems this year (if not the biggest). For this reason, I would be very hesitant to trade either Guthrie or DCab who are the only starters we can trust at all to get us past the 5th inning. Even though those guys would be fairly valuable commodities on the trade market.

[RShack]

Seems like a reasonable plan to me.

No, it won't fix everything for 2009, but it will certainly set the stage for 2010, which is when AM said we could start thinking about contending.

I expect this plan to trigger umpteen posts about how AM is somehow violating the "One True Path of Rebuilding". However, it's important to remember that that the "Church of the One True Path" is entirely a message board construct. AM never signed up for it. His job is to fix the franchise so it can be good all the time. That's the main point, that's the only thing that matters. The hand-wringing about how AM would somehow be goofing up by not "maximizing value" by trading all our good 30-year-old's completely misses the point. That's not what good franchises do. Here's what good franchises do: They go the WS with teams that are chocked full of 30-something's, while they're also growing kids in the MiL's. It's a fact, Jack. You can look it up.

ps: I'm sure there's a Plan B. Probably a Plan C too. I wonder what they are.

[davearm]

Many folks have mentioned having a "Plan B" in case Teixeira doesn't come through.

Seems to me that so long as MacPhail has both the "with Tex" and "without Tex" paths well laid out, and can keep alive the series of transactions that each entails, then things will work out OK here.

The challenge, of course, will be to keep the various ducks in a row as Teix and Boras keep everyone waiting, quite possibly deep into the offseason. MacPhail is going to have to have a lot of balls in the air, and be in position to change course swiftly and decisively when the Tex situation resolves itself.

[davearm]

Sounds like a recipe to put a pretty good and competetive team on the field but one that aint gonna be a threat to be a serious contender.
This really gets to the heart of the issue of, when is the core you've established good enough to produce a contender?

At some point in this process, you have to decide that the building blocks you've compiled are sufficient, at which time you transition out of rebuilding mode.

Naturally, it's wholly debateable whether or not the lineup you list crosses the threshold.

[geschinger]

Seems like a reasonable plan to me.

No, it won't fix everything for 2009, but it will certainly set the stage for 2010, which is when AM said we could start thinking about contending.

I expect this plan to trigger umpteen posts about how AM is somehow violating the "One True Path of Rebuilding". However, it's important to remember that that the "Church of the One True Path" is entirely a message board construct. AM never signed up for it. His job is to fix the franchise so it can be good all the time. That's the main point, that's the only thing that matters. The hand-wringing about how AM would somehow be goofing up by not "maximizing value" by trading all our good 30-year-old's completely misses the point. That's not what good franchises do. Here's what good franchises do: They go the WS with teams that are chocked full of 30-something's, while they're also growing kids in the MiL's. It's a fact, Jack. You can look it up.

ps: I'm sure there's a Plan B. Probably a Plan C too. I wonder what they are.

Good franchises don't trade all their good 30 year old's - that is true. It is also equally true that good teams are willing to follow the Branch Rickey maxim that it is much better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late. There is a balance that needs to be struck especially when the MiL systems is as far off as it is from growing kids that can contribute. I'd like to see the franchise get younger and more talented but I'm not going to be upset if they don't trade everyone over 30. However what will bother me is if they do something incredibly stupid like the pre-MacPhail regime was apt to do with players who were around awhile by rewarding them with extensions / bad contracts (see Mora).

[oriole_way]

I saw several posts stating that the O's need to keep Brian Roberts and Aubrey Huff and possibly Sherrill in order to attract Teixeira this offseason.

But I haven't seen anybody counter that even if the O's keep all of the aforementioned players, that this team could still finish below .500 this season. Is Teix going to want to come to a team that finishes, say 77-85 this year, in 4th place or possibly in last place, which would be an 11th straight losing season? And with the team unable to withstand the recent injuries, this team likely will fade to some extent in the 2nd half. Is Teix going to believe that his addition will turn a sub .500, 4th or 5th place team into a legitimate contender? I wouldn't.

[Dipper9]

This 2009 lineup is exciting, even if SS is just a glove:

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Pitching is the real issue. Always has been, IMO. Starting pitching.

BB, love to know which prospects we have, if any, the front office is thinking could push to start next year?


I'd put Huff at third, Scott DH, Reimold in LF, and Mora as the super-sub. Everything else looks good.

[rolliefingers]

It is not the rational to keep Huff and Sherrill. Their plan is to keep them whether Teix signs here or not.

I would like to think that my brother could be an effective LOOGY for another 5-7 years in the MAJORS, much less your beer league.

Sorry man, it's nothing personal against your brother and honestly I was exaggerating for effect. I agree that George should be an effective reliever for several years. But that's the point - right now, he's a Proven Closer (TM). There are teams out there who will overpay for a hot reliever, especially mid-season. George has some iffy peripherals that have already begun to bite him and us.

I think we should sell high.

[DuffMan]

I do agree that we're going to need one more starter next year besides what our MiL can supply. Loewen, Albers, and now, possibly, Spoone really hit our ML ready pitching talent. For two years I've read threads on here about how we target too much young pitching yet we never have enough to last through the season. I think maybe it is time for some of us to stop spouting that we target too much pitching until we actually have guys waiting in the MiL that can't get here because we're full of studs.

I totally agree with this. Many people on here talk about all our great prospects and expect them to come right up to the show and be able to throw 7 or 8 innings a night. That's not going to happen. Picking up a starter would just be used to keep the seat warm until these guys are ready to get in there and do their thing.

[RZNJ]

The plan is not surprising but the fact that it seems as though everything is predicated on Teixeira signing here does seem a little like "all of your eggs in one basket". The O's can afford to overpay for Tex and apparently they are willing. I don't care. I don't think he's a franchise player but it's not going to stop us from resigning or extending our core players so no biggie. The veteran starter part of the equation is a little scary because I can definitely envision the O's getting stuck with a bad contract and a bad starter. Sounds like the plan definitely includes keeping Guthrie & Cabrera and trying to bridge the gap to Tillman, Arrietta, Matusz, and Hernandez, with a veteran starter, with guys like Olson, Liz, & Burres at the end of the rotation. As much as I'd like to see the O's trade off some of the guys, I can live with this plan. The reason? Because I don't think we have the chips to get another Adam Jones type of player in a deal. The biggest key for this franchise is to create a strong farm system that pumps players on a yearly basis up to the ML roster. Pitching wise we are getting pretty darn close to that. We are still far away from doing that position wise. However, we do have a decent nucleus with Markakis, Jones, Wieters, & Reimold. Tex is young enough to fit into that category as well. Bottom line. Any plan is a short term fix if the farm system doesn't get to where it needs to get.

[vatech1994]

The plan is not surprising but the fact that it seems as though everything is predicated on Teixeira signing here does seem a little like "all of your eggs in one basket". The O's can afford to overpay for Tex and apparently they are willing. I don't care. I don't think he's a franchise player but it's not going to stop us from resigning or extending our core players so no biggie. The veteran starter part of the equation is a little scary because I can definitely envision the O's getting stuck with a bad contract and a bad starter. Sounds like the plan definitely includes keeping Guthrie & Cabrera and trying to bridge the gap to Tillman, Arrietta, Matusz, and Hernandez, with a veteran starter, with guys like Olson, Liz, & Burres at the end of the rotation. As much as I'd like to see the O's trade off some of the guys, I can live with this plan. The reason? Because I don't think we have the chips to get another Adam Jones type of player in a deal. The biggest key for this franchise is to create a strong farm system that pumps players on a yearly basis up to the ML roster. Pitching wise we are getting pretty darn close to that. We are still far away from doing that position wise. However, we do have a decent nucleus with Markakis, Jones, Wieters, & Reimold. Tex is young enough to fit into that category as well. Bottom line. Any plan is a short term fix if the farm system doesn't get to where it needs to get.

This is an excellent post IMO

[MarCakes21]

Sorry man, it's nothing personal against your brother and honestly I was exaggerating for effect. I agree that George should be an effective reliever for several years. But that's the point - right now, he's a Proven Closer (TM). There are teams out there who will overpay for a hot reliever, especially mid-season. George has some iffy peripherals that have already begun to bite him and us.

I think we should sell high.

And what is the worst that happens with keeping him? He is under control for another 3 years at basically no cost to us. Either way, we all know he will always be a more effective setup man, and lefty specialist, which have huge value at the deadline as well. Why not keep him, his value may have plateaued, but its not like it will decrease over the next 3 years.

[bird watcher]

If I am AM I set a deadline/budget to get TEX. If he doesn't sign under or at budget and/or by the deadline, we move forward with plan B. Plan B would be the "continued firesale" that many here want. Tex makes this team way more competitive offensively and we have pitchers coming through in the next couple of years.

I am on board with this plan. If Tex doesn't sign then AM will be able to adjust. He doesn't make most of his trades until later in the offseason anyway.

[ChaosLex]

What is "Plan B" from the front office assuming we don't get Teixeira?

I hear Millar's available. ;)

[Mike B]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

I think and hope you are right. I think that we will make some smaller type trades in the next few weeks. I also think that as Payton, Ramon ( geez, I hope they do not check his work behind the plate), Walker (tough to trade from DL) and maybe Bradford get dumped the losses will start to pile up. The tone on the board will get uglier than it is now but it would be wise to remember This is a rebuilding year.

[Old#5fan]

That sounds about how I figured they'd aim. No surprises, really, well maybe Huff being an attraction. I hope your guy is right and the chips fall in the correct manner.

Actually, Huff is an attraction. For some reason I see too many folks on this forum that seem to discount what he is doing. I happen to think he has been rejuvenated as an Oriole and I expect him to do nothing but hammer the ball for the next couple seasons if he remains. I also like what I am hearing about the direction of this team, but I would exercise caution and not overpay for any one player including Texeira. History has shown that can easily bite the Orioles in the hind quarters, as in the Albert Belle fiasco that I think is what started the whole losing tradition if you trace it back.

[Sports Guy]

What a joke...85 wins, here we come!

So, let me get this straight...We keep the team in tact in hopes we sign Tex.

Mora is terrible...Huff is having, by all recent measures, a flukish year thus far...BRob is still solid.

What do we do after 2009 when those 3 are gone? Are we extending BRob and if so, for how much?

If this is what they intend to do, it tells me that they think they are better than they are and that things aren't as different around here as it looked like they were.

How do they expect to compete with the DRays, Yanks and Red Sox LONG TERM if they make no moves and do very little to improve the overall talent and depth of the team?

Do they think Tex is worth 15 more wins than Millar? Because he's not...not even close.

Here is hoping that BB's guy is wrong on this because if he's not, I don't see how any of this could be viewed as good news except things like Wieters and Tex.

[Old#5fan]

What a joke...85 wins, here we come!

So, let me get this straight...We keep the team in tact in hopes we sign Tex.

Mora is terrible...Huff is having, by all recent measures, a flukish year thus far...BRob is still solid.

What do we do after 2009 when those 3 are gone? Are we extending BRob and if so, for how much?

If this is what they intend to do, it tells me that they think they are better than they are and that things aren't as different around here as it looked like they were.

How do they expect to compete with the DRays, Yanks and Red Sox LONG TERM if they make no moves and do very little to improve the overall talent and depth of the team?

Do they think Tex is worth 15 more wins than Millar? Because he's not...not even close.

Here is hoping that BB's guy is wrong on this because if he's not, I don't see how any of this could be viewed as good news except things like Wieters and Tex.

Well Mr. Gloom and Doom many of us unlike yourself don't think that this current team needs to be completely rebuilt from the bottom up. The right combination of players added could catapult this team right up there with the Rays and Boston. You seem not to be paying much attention to the fact the Rays went from last to first in one season. So can the Orioles and they certainly don't need to start from scratch either.

[Dr. FLK]

Well Mr. Gloom and Doom many of us unlike yourself don't think that this current team needs to be completely rebuilt from the botton up. The right combination of players added could catapult this team right up there with the Rays and Boston. You seem not to be paying much attention to the fact the Rays went from last to first in one season. So can the Orioles and they certainly don't need to start from scratch either.

The Rays didn't go from last to first with a bunch of aging players. They improved along with the development of their youth. They didn't bank on Mora bouncing back at age 37. They didn't bank on Aubrey Huff having another aberration of a season (and yes, hitting this well ni the first half is most certainly out of character). They didn't bet on signing the top 1B on the marlet to make it happen. They REBUILT FROM THE GROUND UP. So, in one breath you say we don't need to rebuild. And, in the next, you say we can be just like a team who did exactly that?

[Sports Guy]

Well Mr. Gloom and Doom many of us unlike yourself don't think that this current team needs to be completely rebuilt from the botton upThat's fine but you are wrong...I have been hearing that we don't need to do this for years...How has that worked out?
The right combination of players added could catapult this team right up there with the Rays and BostonPerhaps for one year...But this team can not contend long term as currently constructed plus a vet SS and Tex...It just can't.
You seem not to be paying much attention to the fact the Rays went from last to first in one season. LOL...Do you understand the level of talent on that team? I mean seriously, does your mind compute how incredible that team really is?

They are probably a year ahead of schedule right now but for the last few years, we have all been waiting for this to happen with that team. The Orioles can't match their starters for at least 2 years. We don't have their positional talent. We also don't have their depth.

We aren't even in the same viscinity of the big 3 teams in our division right now.

I mean look at things right now...We are overperforming comapred to what most people felt going into the season....We are currently 10.5 games out of first...We are a sweep in Toronto away from last place.

We are 7.5 games out of the WC with SIX teams in front of us and everyone of those teams, except MAYBE Texas, has a better future than we do at this point.

All of this and we are still playing better than we are supposed to be!!!! So, even our best is still not even close.

We aren't just competing with our division but the whole AL as well.

I think people really lose sight of all of this sometimes.

By the time this season ends, we will be around 20 games out of a playoff spot...Adding some kind of Eckstein/Jack Wilson type SS and Tex doesn't even come close to making that up.

[Dr. FLK]

They are probably a year ahead of schedule right now but for the last few years, we have all been waiting for this to happen with that team. The Orioles can't match their starters for at least 2 years. We don't have their positional talent. We also don't have their depth.

We aren't even in the same viscinity of the big 3 teams in our division right now.

I mean look at things right now...We are overperforming comapred to what most people felt going into the season....We are currently 10.5 games out of first...We are a sweep in Toronto away from last place.

We are 7.5 games out of the WC with SIX teams in front of us and everyone of those teams, except MAYBE Texas, has a better future than we do at this point.

All of this and we are still playing better than we are supposed to be!!!! So, even our best is still not even close.

We aren't just competing with our division but the whole AL as well.

I think people really lose sight of all of this sometimes.

By the time this season ends, we will be around 20 games out of a playoff spot...Adding some kind of Eckstein/Jack Wilson type SS and Tex doesn't even come close to making that up.

But other than that...:D

[Old#5fan]

The Rays didn't go from last to first with a bunch of aging players. They improved along with the development of their youth. They didn't bank on Mora bouncing back at age 37. They didn't bank on Aubrey Huff having another aberration of a season (and yes, hitting this well ni the first half is most certainly out of character). They didn't bet on signing the top 1B on the marlet to make it happen. They REBUILT FROM THE GROUND UP. So, in one breath you say we don't need to rebuild. And, in the next, you say we can be just like a team who did exactly that?

The didn't rebuild overnight in one season. They also added a veteran or two (Hinske - Floyd) and Carl Crawford ain't a rookie. So gimme a break. I agree that Mora is getting long in the tooth, but I don't expect him to be around much longer. I gurantee you Huff is not having an abberation of a season. Did the thought ever ocurr to you that last year was an abberation. I expect him to produce like this for at least the next three seasons. The man can flat out rake. I say get rid of Bynum, Mora, Bradford, Walker, Payton, and possibly Millar. Otherwise keep what we have and add to it, including the right kind of veterans.

[Sports Guy]

Which number doesn't belong?:

749
812ish
779
873

Those are Huff's OPS the last 4 years(812 is an estimate of the year he was dealt).

Why on earth should we think 873 is going to be the same next year when it hasn't been close to that high sinec 2004, when he was 27 years old(peak age) and even then, his OPS is 20 points higher than it was that year.

People couldn't wait to dump him for anything from the point of his radio comments until the end of May and now he is a key piece in bringing Tex here?

Is that a joke?

[Sports Guy]

They also added a veteran or two (Hinske - Floyd)That's fine...Vets are fine to have.
and Carl Crawford ain't a rookie. LOL..So what? He is still very young and was developed by them..He is there Markakis..
I agree that Mora is getting long in the tooth, but I don't expect him to be around much longerOk, but then who is the 3rd baseman long term? You don't like Rowell...So, who then?
I gurantee you Huff is not having an abberation of a seasonGuarantee huh? Kind of like Luke Scott? So, its not an aberration even though this is the best season he has had in 5 years and he is now on the wrong side of 30? That is a pretty bold statement with no real validity behind it.
Did the thought ever ocurr to you that last year was an abberationNo because it was pretty much in line with the direction his career was going.

And BTW, Huff is a FA after next year as well so even if he is still raking, he is liable to get a big deal and leave via FA.

[Dr. FLK]

The didn't rebuild overnight in one season. They also added a veteran or two (Hinske - Floyd) and Carl Crawford ain't a rookie. So gimme a break. I agree that Mora is getting long in the tooth, but I don't expect him to be around much longer. I gurantee you Huff is not having an abberation of a season. Did the thought ever ocurr to you that last year was an abberation. I expect him to produce like this for at least the next three seasons. The man can flat out rake. I say get rid of Bynum, Mora, Bradford, Walker, Payton, and possibly Millar. Otherwise keep what we have and add to it, including the right kind of veterans.

You just made my point. They didn't rebuild in one season. So why on Earth can people expect us to? Do you believe that if we add Hinske we will win? It's probably not Garza, Upton, Longoria, Kazmir, Shields, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Navarro who are primarily responsible for their success. It must be the signing of Hinske and Cliff Floyd.

For a second it occurred to me that last season was the aberration for Huff. But then I looked at the stats from EVERY OTHER season he has had, and I saw that the typically stinks in the first 2+ months, before rebounding for a nice finish. So, once I saw that - and looked up aberration in the dictionary - I settled on this season as the outlier. Huff can hit, no doubt. But he's a notoriously slow starter who is off to a great start this season...very atypical when you look at his career stats.

[Sanfran327]

And what is the worst that happens with keeping him? He is under control for another 3 years at basically no cost to us. Either way, we all know he will always be a more effective setup man, and lefty specialist, which have huge value at the deadline as well. Why not keep him, his value may have plateaued, but its not like it will decrease over the next 3 years.

It's tough to project Sherrill as a lefty specialist because of his high walk rate. I think Ray comes back next year to be the 8th inning guy, Johnson becomes the closer, and Sherrill becomes our much needed 7th inning guy since apparently Sarfate can't handle it on his own.

As for the folks who think we should even consider trading Guthrie, that's nuts. He's not the best pitcher in the division, but he's the best starter we have and he's still young. He could absolutely fit into a WS rotation as a 3 or 4 starter. We have a half-dozen-or-so legit starting pitching prospects right now including Matusz, who isn't even signed yet (which is really messing up some '09 plans, IMO), and it's a pretty safe bet that not all of them are going to pan out. I think everybody already knows that. I'm just saying, don't lose your mind when one of Tillman, Arrieta, or Matusz flops. Two of them will start in front of Guthrie, Cabrera can still be considered a #4, and Olson or Burress could plug into the 5th spot. None of these guys are bad pitchers, they're just either pitching too high in the rotation or they're too young still.

And speaking of Olson and Burres... has anyone ever seen the two of them in the same place at the same time??

[Cubsfan]

It's a start, but there's so much more that needs to be done before we're contending.

Do you still get the same feeling about MacPhail, bb? I'm talking about, paper... plastic... paper... plastic... paper...

I agree that it does make the O's a better team, but not at the level to compete with the Red Sox, Rays, and reloaded Yankees (after failing to make the playoffs).

[Hank Scorpio]

This offseason will be very fun here on the OH. By the Winter Meetings we will be Teixera'd out.

I've been Teixeira'd out for like 18 months now.

[Old#5fan]

You just made my point. They didn't rebuild in one season. So why on Earth can people expect us to? Do you believe that if we add Hinske we will win? It's probably not Garza, Upton, Longoria, Kazmir, Shields, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Navarro who are primarily responsible for their success. It must be the signing of Hinske and Cliff Floyd.

For a second it occurred to me that last season was the aberration for Huff. But then I looked at the stats from EVERY OTHER season he has had, and I saw that the typically stinks in the first 2+ months, before rebounding for a nice finish. So, once I saw that - and looked up aberration in the dictionary - I settled on this season as the outlier. Huff can hit, no doubt. But he's a notoriously slow starter who is off to a great start this season...very atypical when you look at his career stats.


Well unlike you and a few other folks I consider simply misguided who rely way too much on stats as predictors of the future I find them pretty much of little value. If stats predict the future then how come Daniel Cabrera isn't leading the league in walking batters this year? I will tell you why, and that is players can change, and the impact of coaches like Kranitz are immeasurable in stats. This isn't Fantasy baseball but real live players we are talking about. Did it ever occur to any of you that Huff likes hitting in OPACY and has settled in with his new team and actually is more comfortable then when he was with the horrific Tampa teams? Did it ever occur to you that Crowley has helped Huff considerably in regaining his stroke?

Ergo, a player can change and sometimes for the better stats-wise in a different environment. Leaving the human element out of it is folly as is relying on stats to predict what will happen in the future. Since no two players are alike and no two seasons alike, it is pretty much valueless as predicting anything and even an incomplete measure of what has occurred but undeniably more useful in that regard.

[Dr. FLK]

I've been Teixeira'd out for like 18 months now.

Just pretend he doesn't exist...that's what I do.

Try this:

Every time you see his name on the board, replace it with another random player's name. That way, it seems like a new idea.

[Tony-OH]

Read into this as little or as much as you want. Based on a recent conversation this is my understanding of our direction.....

1) The main focus will be to sign Texieira this off season. We will pay big bucks.

2) We will shed payroll between now and the end of the year. Will deal Ramon, Walker, Payton.

3) will will acquire a veteran starter before the start of 2009. We would rather trade.

4) Wieters will be the starting catcher in 2009

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

6) We are looking for a solid veteran SS for the next couple years and will attempt to trade for a prospect.

2008 Lineup

Roberts - 2B
Markakis - RF
Huff - DH
Tex - 1B
Wieters - C
Scott - LF
Mora - 3B
Jones - CF
SHORTSTOP

Bench

Reimold
Millar
UIF
BKUP C

Man, this looks familiar. ;)

At least I know I'm on the same sheet of music as MacPhail.

[Dr. FLK]

Well unlike you and a few other folks I consider simply misguided who rely way too much on stats as predictors of the future I find them pretty much of little value. If stats predict the future then how come Daniel Cabrera isn't leading the league in walking batters this year? I will tell you why, and that is players can change. This isn't Fantasy baseball but real live players we are talking about. Did it ever occur to any of you that Huff likes hitting in OPACY and has settled in with his new team and actually is more comfortable then when he was with the horrific Tampa teams? Egro, a player can change and sometimes for the better stats-wise in a different environment.

You do realize that Cabrera is 6th in the AL in walks, don't you? I'm not sure you really helped yourself out as much as you think you did with that little nugget...

[Sports Guy]

Well unlike you and a few other folks I consider simply misguided who rely way too much on stats as predictors of the future I find them pretty much of little value. If stats predict the future then how come Daniel Cabrera isn't leading the league in walking batters this year? I will tell you why, and that is players can change. This isn't Fantasy baseball but real live players we are talking about. Did it ever occur to any of you that Huff likes hitting in OPACY and has settled in with his new team and actually is more comfortable then when he was with the horrific Tampa teams? Egro, a player can change and sometimes for the better stats-wise in a different environment. Leaving the human element out of it is folly as is relying on stats to predict what will happen in the future. Since no two players are alike and no two seasons alike, it is pretty much valueless as predicting anything.

His best years were with Tampa!!!!

[Tony-OH]

OK, this is one way to go. I can't really argue that this isn't a reasonable approach. Tex won't be worth what we give him, but he will be extremely valuable to this team. A switch hitting power hitter who plays gold glove defense at first? I don't think any of us are going to care that he makes 20 mil per year and should make 15 mil.

I do agree that we're going to need one more starter next year besides what our MiL can supply. Loewen, Albers, and now, possibly, Spoone really hit our ML ready pitching talent. For two years I've read threads on here about how we target too much young pitching yet we never have enough to last through the season. I think maybe it is time for some of us to stop spouting that we target too much pitching until we actually have guys waiting in the MiL that can't get here because we're full of studs.

Yeah, the injuries have really hurt our starting pitching depth and with our better pitching prospects at Bowie and Frederick right now, we'll need a bridge. IF Burnett can be had without giving up a major prospect I'm not opposed to getting him as long as adding his salary won't hurt our quest for Teixeira.

I would not mind a pitching staff of Burnett, Guthrie, Cabrera, Olson, Liz/Penn/Bergesen next year. Spoone, Patton, Hernandez, Arrieta, and hopefully Matusz will be at Bowie or higher next year so the dpeth will be closer.

[Dr. FLK]

His best years were with Tampa!!!!

Don't you throw logic into this argument. He doesn't rely on silly things like stats. Maybe he judges Huff's best year on other factors. Huff probably had a super-fun time the year he spent in Houston. Did you ever think of that? I bet he loved the Texas BBQ. And he probably enjoyed a the rodeos. down there.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, the injuries have really hurt our starting pitching depth and with our better pitching prospects at Bowie and Frederick right now, we'll need a bridge. IF Burnett can be had without giving up a major prospect I'm not opposed to getting him as long as adding his salary won't hurt our quest for Teixeira.

I would not mind a pitching staff of Burnett, Guthrie, Cabrera, Olson, Liz/Penn/Bergesen next year. Spoone, Patton, Hernandez, Arrieta, and hopefully Matusz will be at Bowie or higher next year so the dpeth will be closer.

Its also why you can't totally rely on young pitching...You have to add a lot of positional talent and depth around that pitching.

[Old#5fan]

You do realize that Cabrera is 6th in the AL in walks, don't you? I'm not sure you really helped yourself out as much as you think you did with that little nugget...

That is a big improvement from leading the league.

[Sports Guy]

That is a big improvement from leading the league.

LOL...No its not....He is still amongst the league leaders and is only 6 walks away from leading the league.

Besides there is a difference between improving your walks while still in your peak years and thinking you can reverse the aging process and recent trends and be very good for the next 3 years.

And again, Huff is a FA after 2009...Are you going to extend him? If so, how much?

[Old#5fan]

His best years were with Tampa!!!!

Of course they were, he hasn't even played two full seasons anywhere else. Give him time as an Oriole instead of whisking him away as you seem to espouse and I predict his best years will be in the Orange and Black. Unlike you, I could care less about what he did in the past. The guy is hitting now better than he ever has. He has broken the pattern of the slow starts and he is now a consistent year long hitter. Of course there is an argument to trade him at his peak value, but there is an equal argument to retain him.

[Old#5fan]

LOL...No its not....He is still amongst the league leaders.

Besides there is a difference between improving your walks while still in your peak years and thinking you can reverse the aging process and recent trends and be very good for the next 3 years.

And again, Huff is a FA after 2009...Are you going to extend him? If so, how much?

If I was the GM I would be trying to extend him right now. Even if you wind up trading him it wouldn't hurt to try to get him signed. As far a DC, there are now five guys worse than him in walking batters. Before there were none. To me that is a big improvement. His career stats would have predicted that how? I will tell you how, they wouldn't!

[Dr. FLK]

That is a big improvement from leading the league.

No it's not. He has a whopping 6 less walks than the league leader. It's improvement...it's not BIG improvement.

[Sports Guy]

If I was the GM I would be trying to extend him right now. Even if you wind up trading him it wouldn't hurt to try to get him signed. As far a DC, there are now five guys worse than him in walking batters. Before there were none. To me that is a big improvement. His career stats would have predicted that how? I will tell you how, they wouldn't!

How long and for how much money would you be offering Huff? He is making 8 million this year and next, so you will have to put more on the table than that.

[Old#5fan]

No it's not. He has a whopping 6 less walks than the league leader. It's improvement...it's not BIG improvement.

Well, how about his ERA? It has also improved and going by his past there would be no reason to expect it. All I am trying to point out is that the future performance good or bad of any player is not predictable period. There is nobody on this board or on earth who can predict accurately what Aubrey Huff will do next year. In fact, I doubt if anyone can predict if he will do better or worse next year than this year, other than to guess. Same with Cabrera. He could be terrible next year or win the Cy Young, nobody knows. Huff could revert back to his mediocre Tampa years or hit like he is now. Nobody on earth knows what is going to happen. If they did, this game would be boring. So my guess that Huff will be as good next year is no less believeable than anyone guessing he won't.

[vatech1994]

LOL...No its not....He is still amongst the league leaders and is only 6 walks away from leading the league.

Besides there is a difference between improving your walks while still in your peak years and thinking you can reverse the aging process and recent trends and be very good for the next 3 years.

And again, Huff is a FA after 2009...Are you going to extend him? If so, how much?

There is nothing wrong with trading Huff if you can get an important piece for the future. That is probably the right way to go. If you can't, you don't. I think it is that simple.

BRob is similar, but I'd need more than just one piece unless that piece was ML ready and likely to be an All Star.

I can see why you're upset if you believe we don't want to trade these guys. I don't think that is the case. I think we believe their present and future value to us is higher than the future value of what we can get in trade, because we've discussed trades with multiple teams and we aren't happy with the suggested return. That isn't necessarily a poor position. I didn't like the proposed Cubs trade in March and I still don't. There just isn't enough value above replacement level amongst the positional prospects they wanted to send to us.

I do agree that you either need to trade BRob and Huff OR extend them. Just picks aren't good enough. I'd be willing to extend BRob now for 3-4 years. I wouldn't be willing to extend Huff at this moment.

[Sports Guy]

Well, how about his ERA? It has also improved and going by his past there would be no reason to expect it. All I am trying to point out is that the future performance good or bad of any player is not predictable period.

Your point is completely wrong...First of all, his ERA is right around where it was in his first full season up here...So, there is all the reason to believe he could do that.

Secondly, as I said, you are still talking about a pitcher in his peak/prime years...His ability to improve is very reasonable within those years.

Your problem is you are so close minded to stats and really have no idea how to analyze them.

A lot of this argument sounds like the Scott argument...You would think you would have learned by now but I guess not.

[Old#5fan]

How long and for how much money would you be offering Huff? He is making 8 million this year and next, so you will have to put more on the table than that.

I don't know, I am not a GM. However, I would average out his two seasons and compare his stats to other comparable major league DH's and offer him something in line. It isn't rocket science, just make him a fair offer. If he takes it fine, if not move on.

[Sports Guy]

There is nothing wrong with trading Huff if you can get an important piece for the future. That is probably the right way to go. If you can't, you don't. I think it is that simple.

BRob is similar, but I'd need more than just one piece unless that piece was ML ready and likely to be an All Star.Of course you can't trade them if you don't get enough back...But, how much is enough? Are you being realistic? That's the problem.


I do agree that you either need to trade BRob and Huff OR extend them. Just picks aren't good enough. I'd be willing to extend BRob now for 3-4 years. I wouldn't be willing to extend Huff at this moment.Yea, extending Huff would be a terrible idea.

I wouldn't give BRob that contract unless we ripped up next year's contract and got him to sign for 3 years with a 4th year option.

However, if you are BRob and this is your last chance at huge money, aren't you signing for 4-5 years on top of what you already have and requesting 10+ million a year?

Do you want to give him that contract?

[Hank Scorpio]

Its also why you can't totally rely on young pitching...You have to add a lot of positional talent and depth around that pitching.

I generally agree with this.

IMO, our biggest needs going into this offseason will be as follows :

1. Dependable starting pitcher (However, I'm very bearish on Burnett)
2. Shortstop
3. First base
4. Organizational positional talent
5. Middle relief

While I would prefer to trade Sherrill (b/c I think his value will never be higher), I guess I can understand keeping him at the moment. He's not even arb. eligible and he has been effective for the most part.

Huff is a different story. I appreciate what the man has done this season, he has honestly been the "pleasantest" of surprises. His current value and the rise of Reimold seem to create a bit of a perfect storm for a deal. Now, I don't know how much demand there is for him - I'm not fielding offers. But I would certainly be interested in moving him.

I would be elated to dump Ramon Hernandez and Jay Payton on anyone who'd be willing to split their salaries.

It feels a little like we're betting the house on Teixeira, but I have to believe that is just the nature of BB's post. I cannot imagine MacPhail doesn't have contingency plans lined up, and I doubt that Kevin Millar is one of them.

When Reimold and Wieters are promoted, our MiL positional depth will be essentially null. That is and will be a glaring problem going forward, and something that requires addressing.

[Old#5fan]

Your point is completely wrong...First of all, his ERA is right around where it was in his first full season up here...So, there is all the reason to believe he could do that.

Secondly, as I said, you are still talking about a pitcher in his peak/prime years...His ability to improve is very reasonable within those years.

Your problem is you are so close minded to stats and really have no idea how to analyze them.

A lot of this argument sounds like the Scott argument...You would think you would have learned by now but I guess not.

Using your own logic, how do you know Huff isn't smack in the middle of his "peak or prime years? I can tell you this much, you don't. Furthermore, if stats are so reliable in predicting the future, explain the Eric Byrnes situation as to how he went from hitting like Freddie Bynum as an Oriole to becoming a NL all-star the very next season? I bet those stats sure didn't predict that now did they? If so, the Orioles would have held onto him.:eektf::old5fan:

[Dr. FLK]

Well, how about his ERA? It has also improved and going by his past there would be no reason to expect it. All I am trying to point out is that the future performance good or bad of any player is not predictable period. There is nobody on this board or on earth who can predict accurately what Aubrey Huff will do next year. In fact, I doubt if anyone can predict if he will do better or worse next year than this year, other than to guess. Same with Cabrera. He could be terrible next year or win the Cy Young, nobody knows. Huff could revert back to his mediocre Tampa years or hit like he is now. Nobody on earth knows what is going to happen. If they did, this game would be boring. So my guess that Huff will be as good next year is no less believeable than anyone guessing he won't.

His ERA that deviates roughly 10% from his career ERA?

[Old#5fan]

His ERA that deviates roughly 10% from his career ERA?

It still improved didn't it? If stats are so useful, what will he do next season? Will his ERA be the same, improve 10% again, or regress 10%? Nobody knows, and stats are worthless to use like that. AGain, look at Eric Brynes. His stats as an Oriole were even worse than the guy they traded for him (Larry Bigbie) yet Bigbie gets demoted to the minors the next season and Brynes is a NL allstar. Splain that one Lucy?:laughlol:

[Dr. FLK]

It still improved didn't it? If stats are so useful, what will he do next season? Will his ERA be the same, improve 10% again, or regress 10%? Nobody knows, and stats are worthless to use like that. AGain, look at Eric Brynes. His stats as an Oriole were even worse than the guy they traded for him (Larry Bigbie) yet Bigbie gets demoted to the minors the next season and Brynes is a NL allstar. Splain that one Lucy?:laughlol:

This is my last comment. Stats do not predict future performance 100%. But, if you have some aptitude, you can apply some logic to stats - among other factors - to predict (again, not 100%) future performance. Like any statistical process, there are outliers to the predicted data. If your mind isn't able to accept this, I suggest you ignore the mathematical process of statistical analysis all together. No one is saying there aren't outliers. No one.

[The Wedge]

My insider source at OH tells me that the direction this thread has gone in will disappoint most fans. :wedge:

[TGO]

My insider source at OH tells me that the direction this thread has gone in will disappoint most fans. :wedge:

:noinsider:

[Old#5fan]

This is my last comment. Stats do not predict future performance 100%. But, if you have some aptitude, you can apply some logic to stats - among other factors - to predict (again, not 100%) future performance. Like any statistical process, there are outliers to the predicted data. If your mind isn't able to accept this, I suggest you ignore the mathematical process of statistical analysis all together. No one is saying there aren't outliers. No one.

My mind doesn't accept crapola that doesn't work. Sorry, that is my opinion and I feel I am entitled to it just as you are yours.

Eric Byrnes is a prime example of stats being totally useless in detecting how a player will perform in the future. There are probably hundreds of other examples of this as well.

[The Wedge]

:noinsider:

Shhh...it's me.

[TGO]

My mind doesn't accept crapola that doesn't work. Sorry, that is my opinion and I feel I am entitled to it just as you are yours.

Eric Byrnes is a prime example of stats being totally useless in detecting how a player will perform in the future. There are probably hundreds of other examples of this as well.

Your Eric Byrnes example is highly dubious because you're remembering his first half breakout and not his entire 2006 season.

He actually put up a relatively pedestrian .267/.313/.482 line that year. .795 OPS (96 OPS+).

His stats that year were basically in line with his career stats. He had shown glimpses of that sort of power before, and that was in the cavernous park in Oakland. Hitting more homeruns in the Phoenix launching pad was pretty predictable if you follow baseball at all.

He just had a bad year the year before that. Can't blame him, really. He pretty much got run out of town in Oakland, then when he was starting to get comfortable in Denver he got traded again, to a team that was completely tanking, with a poisonous clubhouse and a completely inept manager who couldn't stop the wheels from falling off.

[Anlbdz]

I am wondering why everyone is all of the sudden having such a hard time grasping this concept of trading away good trading pieces. Wasn't it just 6-7 months ago that we were so excited for all the trades we made, and all the new youthful exuberance it brought in. We finally found a center fielder, a decent option in LF, some more young pitching depth, some bullpen help. Why in the world are half of us scoffing at the idea of continuing that momentum. I think we'd all love to be pulling for a team with an actual answer at SS, a change at 3b, an answer at 1b. We're not really finding those answers anytime soon from within........must trade for these prospects

I love the feel of flat-brim out there closing games, but do we really honestly believe that he is a long-term closing solution? He's exciting, yes. Why wouldn't we trade him for a good package back.

Same with Huff, yes, the guy can rake when he's on, but he's not getting any younger and I have no doubt that he will go where the money is when his contract is up.

between those two i would think that we could get probably 4-5 pretty good prospects/ML ready players.

Trade Walker for peanuts, who cares if it's marginal prospect, at least the contract is off our books.

Payton, why is he here? trade him for another marginal prospect...give reimold a taste.


I guess my frustration is that the plan BB outlined sounds oddly familiar to what we've done in the past. Yes, we've rebuilt a little bit, but a half rebuilding will just put us in the crapper long-term. Whereas the Sox and Rays will keep churning out talent, making trades when necessary and remaining on top.

I don't mind the view this season of looking competitive and playing teams close, but I don't want that view for the next 5 seasons is all I'm saying.

[Mark Carver]

No it's not. He has a whopping 6 less walks than the league leader. It's improvement...it's not BIG improvement.

Coming in late to this thread, but I think Cabrera has made a big improvement in his walks compared to his other years. Even under when Ray Miller was the pitching coach.

Base it strictly on leading the league is a misnomer if you ask me because you have to factor in the number of innings pitched and how many walks he's given up. Cabrera is 3rd in the AL in innings pitched with Halladay with 137.1 IP, Jon Lester with 125.0 IP and Cabrera with 124.0 IP. Thus, he's gonna have more walks. His career in walks per 9 innings.

2004 = 5.44 BB/9
2005 = 4.86 BB/9
2006 = 6.34 BB/9
2007 = 4.76 BB/9
2008 = 3.69 BB/9

How about compared to others league leaders in innings pitched?

Daniel Cabrera - 124.2 IP, 51 BB
Jon Lester - 125.0 IP, 44 BB
Justin Verlander - 121.0 IP, 49 BB

Cabrera is no sure fire can't miss for the future. Far from it and I would look to unload him, because of the main reason is he's closer to free agency than the rest of the starters. But to me he's made a big improvement in walks this year.

[PoorMike]

I am wondering why everyone is all of the sudden having such a hard time grasping this concept of trading away good trading pieces. Wasn't it just 6-7 months ago that we were so excited for all the trades we made, and all the new youthful exuberance it brought in. We finally found a center fielder, a decent option in LF, some more young pitching depth, some bullpen help. Why in the world are half of us scoffing at the idea of continuing that momentum. I think we'd all love to be pulling for a team with an actual answer at SS, a change at 3b, an answer at 1b. We're not really finding those answers anytime soon from within........must trade for these prospects

I love the feel of flat-brim out there closing games, but do we really honestly believe that he is a long-term closing solution? He's exciting, yes. Why wouldn't we trade him for a good package back.

Same with Huff, yes, the guy can rake when he's on, but he's not getting any younger and I have no doubt that he will go where the money is when his contract is up.

between those two i would think that we could get probably 4-5 pretty good prospects/ML ready players.

Trade Walker for peanuts, who cares if it's marginal prospect, at least the contract is off our books.

Payton, why is he here? trade him for another marginal prospect...give reimold a taste.


I guess my frustration is that the plan BB outlined sounds oddly familiar to what we've done in the past. Yes, we've rebuilt a little bit, but a half rebuilding will just put us in the crapper long-term. Whereas the Sox and Rays will keep churning out talent, making trades when necessary and remaining on top.

I don't mind the view this season of looking competitive and playing teams close, but I don't want that view for the next 5 seasons is all I'm saying.

I'm assuming (and maybe it's a bad assumption) that the reason the team may have adopted this philosophy is that other teams simply weren't willing to give us anything of value for Huff and Sherrill. I'd hate to think that they actually think this team is a Weiters and Teix away from competing. They are probably just saying "Hey, I'd rather keep him than give him away." If so, it really doesn't hurt us much, because it's not like were trading good prospects to fill holes (pending the deal with this 'SS to be named later').

[The Wedge]

I'm assuming (and maybe it's a bad assumption) that the reason the team may have adopted this philosophy is that other teams simply weren't willing to give us anything of value for Huff and Sherrill. I'd hate to think that they actually think this team is a Weiters and Teix away from competing. They are probably just saying "Hey, I'd rather keep him than give him away." If so, it really doesn't hurt us much, because it's not like were trading good prospects to fill holes (pending the deal with this 'SS to be named later').

My thoughts, too. MacPhail seems really good at holding out for what he wants. He's way more patient than any of us, that's for sure.

[Anlbdz]

we can certainly assume that, but on the other hand, it would seem Mcphail doesn't make any quick trades. We can probably assume also that he'll wait til the deadline to bleed as much as he can out of this rock.

[Sports Guy]

I am wondering why everyone is all of the sudden having such a hard time grasping this concept of trading away good trading pieces. Wasn't it just 6-7 months ago that we were so excited for all the trades we made, and all the new youthful exuberance it brought in. We finally found a center fielder, a decent option in LF, some more young pitching depth, some bullpen help. Why in the world are half of us scoffing at the idea of continuing that momentum. I think we'd all love to be pulling for a team with an actual answer at SS, a change at 3b, an answer at 1b. We're not really finding those answers anytime soon from within........must trade for these prospects

I love the feel of flat-brim out there closing games, but do we really honestly believe that he is a long-term closing solution? He's exciting, yes. Why wouldn't we trade him for a good package back.

Same with Huff, yes, the guy can rake when he's on, but he's not getting any younger and I have no doubt that he will go where the money is when his contract is up.

between those two i would think that we could get probably 4-5 pretty good prospects/ML ready players.

Trade Walker for peanuts, who cares if it's marginal prospect, at least the contract is off our books.

Payton, why is he here? trade him for another marginal prospect...give reimold a taste.


I guess my frustration is that the plan BB outlined sounds oddly familiar to what we've done in the past. Yes, we've rebuilt a little bit, but a half rebuilding will just put us in the crapper long-term. Whereas the Sox and Rays will keep churning out talent, making trades when necessary and remaining on top.

I don't mind the view this season of looking competitive and playing teams close, but I don't want that view for the next 5 seasons is all I'm saying.
What a great post.

[Sports Guy]

My thoughts, too. MacPhail seems really good at holding out for what he wants. He's way more patient than any of us, that's for sure.

But does he want too much? He certainly wanted to much for BRob...Does the same apply for Huff and Sherrill?

If the offers just aren't that good, fine, keep the players...No issue with that at all.

But my concern is AM is valuing these guys too highly and putting too much emphasis on the season right now.

Personally i feel if we lose 8 out of the next 10 or something like that, the thoughts may change but i think it is ridiculous that that needs to happen.

[The Wedge]

But does he want too much? He certainly wanted to much for BRob...Does the same apply for Huff and Sherrill?

If the offers just aren't that good, fine, keep the players...No issue with that at all.

But my concern is AM is valuing these guys too highly and putting too much emphasis on the season right now.

Personally i feel if we lose 8 out of the next 10 or something like that, the thoughts may change but i think it is ridiculous that that needs to happen.

I'm not sure if he wants too much...or if he wants specifics and isn't getting the specifics...you know what I mean?

[NewMarketSean]

Late to the party. I like the Tex stuff. I really hope we can get him.

However, keeping Huff and Roberts to attract him makes no sense whatsoever. Their value is at an all-time high and they have to be traded if you get a good return for them. They should be actively shopped.

[Anlbdz]

I think what we have with Huff though, with the way he's playing, is your typical gun for hire. He's contracted for another year at a decently cheap price. Also, teams KNOW that he almost always heats up in the second half. To me, that would be pretty attractive for a team looking to add offense.

Sherrill, is a proven LOOGY, and has also proven he can close games, pitch in tight situations, and seems pretty unflappable. Under contract for peanuts and you get him for a few years.

Yes, Macphail may over value players at times, but i think with those two, he really can position it to get a pretty good deal.

On the flipside, that factor alone could prevent a deal from happening, I guess like always, we get to sit back and go for the ride.

[Tony-OH]

For me personally, this is the exact opposite direction that I was hoping MacPhail would take.

I really hope they at least shop BRob to see if anyone will over-pay for him.

I'll be downright pissed if Sherrill is here past the trade deadline and we don't maximize his value. PISSED.

Also hoping we would sell high on Huff, I don't think he'll keep us this pace and really don't think it'll carry over till next season.

Count me in with the crowd who thinks Tex is overrated on this board. I say zero chance he lives up to the contract it'll take to get him here. Much rather look for a young blocked first baseman. I really hope your wrong and that MacPhail isn't keeping "veterans" around to try and attract Tex as a FA. I find it completely ridiculous that you would base the franchise direction around the hopes of signing one player. And it's not like Tex is the second coming of Babe Ruth. Big mistake, if this is true.

Oh well, the proper rebuilding strategy was nice for half a season.

What is the proper rebuilding strategy for you? What would be your timetable to bring a contender in and how did you want the Orioles to do it?

[The Azman]

is it just me, or has Tex's power numbers deflated over the past few years?

[Sports Guy]

What is the proper rebuilding strategy for you? What would be your timetable to bring a contender in and how did you want the Orioles to do it?

The idea of "blowing it up" should still exist...People are acting as if we made 2 trades and all is well and things will just fall into place for us.

This team is so far away from contending on a regular basis...Not sure why people are missing this idea.

And what happens after 2009? What are you going to do with DH? Third?

Are you extending BRob?

What is the status of Markakis?

Do you really want to go back and relive the idea of a bunch of 30 somethings being able to have career years and every else in the division faltering?

This is the same strategy that caused the 10 losing seasons.

[murrayfan420]

Even if we don't move these guys at the deadline, we can still move them in the offseason if need be.

[J.D.]

My mind doesn't accept crapola that doesn't work. Sorry, that is my opinion and I feel I am entitled to it just as you are yours.

Eric Byrnes is a prime example of stats being totally useless in detecting how a player will perform in the future. There are probably hundreds of other examples of this as well.

OH GOD! NUMBERS!!!!! *cries*

You're right. Stats are stupid. Let's not even keep track of them anymore. Any of them. They're completely useless in detecting how a player will perform in the future. They're useless in comparing one player to another. They're useless in pretty much everything. After all, baseball's played on the field, not with a computer and calculator, right?

:rolleyes:

My opinion is that you really lack a base understanding of statistics in general, not just BASEBALL statistics. It's not uncommon to have outliers... stats that fall outside of the mean. And generally, those stats regress back to the mean. Or improve to the mean, depending on what side the outlying stats fall on. Eric Byrnes put up his normal career stats in 2006. 2005 was an outlying poor year. There are a ton of factors for that. TGO laid them out pretty nicely. Getting traded three times in a season isn't easy on anyone.

There are plenty of players who have had one outstanding, All-Star caliber season. Even later in their careers. That doesn't erase the body of work they put up before that season. You can't just ignore what Aubrey Huff has done over the course of his career. What you're doing is saying, "The Aubrey Huff of 2008 is the real Aubrey Huff... the one from the previous 5 years or so was an abberation." You do understand why that makes complete crazysense, right? It makes MUCH more sense that his 2008 is an abberation, and that he'll likely fall back to around a .750 OPS. If he doesn't do it this season, he'll probably do it next season. Unless he's one of the rare baseball players that completely re-invents himself in his 30s and has suddenly found much more power than he's had in the past... and that sounds a little unbelievable at best, and dubious at worst.

C'mon now. We've had this stat argument like, 2,682,120 times.

[Tony-OH]

Many folks have mentioned having a "Plan B" in case Teixeira doesn't come through.

Seems to me that so long as MacPhail has both the "with Tex" and "without Tex" paths well laid out, and can keep alive the series of transactions that each entails, then things will work out OK here.

The challenge, of course, will be to keep the various ducks in a row as Teix and Boras keep everyone waiting, quite possibly deep into the offseason. MacPhail is going to have to have a lot of balls in the air, and be in position to change course swiftly and decisively when the Tex situation resolves itself.

This is a very good reason why MacPahil needs to be aggressive with Tex and not wait to let "the market set itself" like the Orioles have done in the past.

If the Orioles want Teixeira they should know already how much they are willing to go for him. They should negotiate very, very quickly and although Boras has a tendency to wait things out, if the Orioles are upfront with what they are willing to spend they should be able to get things done fairly quickly.

MacPhail can not allow himself to get into a prolonged battle where if Tex doesn't sign, his other options are off the table as well.

It'll be the Roberts to the Cubs thing all over again but magnified tenfold.

[davearm]

My mind doesn't accept crapola that doesn't work. Sorry, that is my opinion and I feel I am entitled to it just as you are yours.

Eric Byrnes is a prime example of stats being totally useless in detecting how a player will perform in the future. There are probably hundreds of other examples of this as well.
Imperfect does not equal worthless.

You'd have to be an absolute fool to believe that in baseball, past performance is completely uncorrelated with future performance.

And whether you realize it or not, you agree with this. Earlier you said you'd be willing to offer Huff an extension with a salary commensurate with the average DH. How'd you get there? By observing that historically, Huff's production has been on that level. You've also taken the next step of expecting that production to carry forward in the future, more or less.

What do stats do? They quantify past performance. They can also be used to form a rational expectation of future performance, as well as reasonable ranges +/- the expectation.

I don't think you're using stats particularly well in your thought process, but you better believe that, consciously or not, they're in there, and playing a big role in forming your opinions on guys.

[Hank Scorpio]

This is a very good reason why MacPahil needs to be aggressive with Tex and not wait to let "the market set itself" like the Orioles have done in the past.

If the Orioles want Teixeira they should know already how much they are willing to go for him. They should negotiate very, very quickly and although Boras has a tendency to wait things out, if the Orioles are upfront with what they are willing to spend they should be able to get things done fairly quickly.

MacPhail can not allow himself to get into a prolonged battle where if Tex doesn't sign, his other options are off the table as well.

It'll be the Roberts to the Cubs thing all over again but magnified tenfold.

I cannot even imagine that. Is that even possible?!?!

[tywright]

Trading Huff and Ramon is essential. You can trade Huff for an innings eater and a prospect. That will possibly allow us to be more willing to trade DCab for the SS prospect and more pitching prospects. The FO is hesitant to deal DCab because he's only 1 of 2 innings eaters in the rotation.

We can hold off dealing Sherrill until next year's trade deadline since he still will have value next year. Also this will give the O's a chance to evaluate other closer options (i.e. Ray and JJ).

If Huff and Ramon are traded by the deadline this allows Reimold and Wieters to get ABs before 2009 and ultimately allows us to obtain a legitimate SS.

Tex will still sign if our lineup is not a "contender" on paper.

[davearm]

This is a very good reason why MacPahil needs to be aggressive with Tex and not wait to let "the market set itself" like the Orioles have done in the past.

If the Orioles want Teixeira they should know already how much they are willing to go for him. They should negotiate very, very quickly and although Boras has a tendency to wait things out, if the Orioles are upfront with what they are willing to spend they should be able to get things done fairly quickly.

MacPhail can not allow himself to get into a prolonged battle where if Tex doesn't sign, his other options are off the table as well.

It'll be the Roberts to the Cubs thing all over again but magnified tenfold.
I agree with everything you said here Tony, although I'm mighty skeptical that the O's or anyone else can induce Boras to operate on anyone's timetable other than his own.

If Team Tex decides they want to resolve things quickly, then that's what will happen. However if they think it's to their advantage to drag things out, then the O's will be pretty much powerless to stop it. Their only leverage will be the threat of walking away.

[DuffMan]

The idea of "blowing it up" should still exist...People are acting as if we made 2 trades and all is well and things will just fall into place for us.

This team is so far away from contending on a regular basis...Not sure why people are missing this idea.

And what happens after 2009? What are you going to do with DH? Third?

Are you extending BRob?

What is the status of Markakis?

Do you really want to go back and relive the idea of a bunch of 30 somethings being able to have career years and every else in the division faltering?

This is the same strategy that caused the 10 losing seasons.

One could say that the nice start we've gotten off to has clouded peoples judgement of where we are at, and where we still have to get to to be competitive on a regular basis. These prospects we have now are great, but are not ready to contribute and be a legitimate impact. Once they even get up here it will take them another season or two to get them going and by that point guys like Huff will be gone, or we could be stuck with him because we gave him some ugly extension and then we won't be able to trade him.

[Sports Guy]

Trading Huff and Ramon is essential. You can trade Huff for an innings eater and a prospect. That will possibly allow us to be more willing to trade DCab for the SS prospect and more pitching prospects. The FO is hesitant to deal DCab because he's only 1 of 2 innings eaters in the rotation.

We can hold off dealing Sherrill until next year's trade deadline since he still will have value next year. Also this will give the O's a chance to evaluate other closer options (i.e. Ray and JJ).

If Huff and Ramon are traded by the deadline this allows Reimold and Wieters to get ABs before 2009 and ultimately allows us to obtain a legitimate SS.

Tex will still sign if our lineup is not a "contender" on paper.

But will the value be where it is now? That is extremely debateable and, IMO, unlikely.

[davearm]

Trading Huff and Ramon is essential. You can trade Huff for an innings eater and a prospect. That will possibly allow us to be more willing to trade DCab for the SS prospect and more pitching prospects. The FO is hesitant to deal DCab because he's only 1 of 2 innings eaters in the rotation.

We can hold off dealing Sherrill until next year's trade deadline since he still will have value next year. Also this will give the O's a chance to evaluate other closer options (i.e. Ray and JJ).

If Huff and Ramon are traded by the deadline this allows Reimold and Wieters to get ABs before 2009 and ultimately allows us to obtain a legitimate SS.

Tex will still sign if our lineup is not a "contender" on paper.
I think everyone here is 100% speculating on this particular point... both the folks with your perspective, as well as the folks that ascribe to the notion that keeping or trading Roberts, Huff, Sherrill, etc. will impact Tex's decision.

[Big Al]

5) Everyone is happy with Huff and feel his presence along with Roberts and Sherrill will help attract Tex.

This one has me a little concerned. What if we don't get Tex? (yes it is a possiblility) I can't believe Huff and Sherrill's value will ever be higher than it is now.

[Tony-OH]

The idea of "blowing it up" should still exist...People are acting as if we made 2 trades and all is well and things will just fall into place for us.

This team is so far away from contending on a regular basis...Not sure why people are missing this idea.

And what happens after 2009? What are you going to do with DH? Third?

Are you extending BRob?

What is the status of Markakis?

Do you really want to go back and relive the idea of a bunch of 30 somethings being able to have career years and every else in the division faltering?

This is the same strategy that caused the 10 losing seasons.

This is where I disagree with you. The Orioles don't need to blow it up? We have parts to a contending team and I believe if we add two bats and the starting pitching develops we will be in decent shape by 2010-2011.

The guys we have to trade are not going to bring premium prospects back that we can build around and even if we do get some pieces, there's no guarantees they'll hit well in the majors.

That's why I like MacPhail's philosophy of drafting and developing pitchers and then trade for or sign established bats.

You can't tell me if we added Tex and Dunn this off-season that we would not be contender by at least 2010 if not 2009. What if we added Burnett as well?

Now that's a lot of salary to take on, and I don't think the O's will be able to do this, but I don't see how you can say we are so far away that we need to blow it up.

I've never subscribed to the theory that Roberts needs to be traded because I think he's going to be a player that ages very well and will be a top leadoff guy for at least five more years.

Tex would take care of the hole at first, Dunn would take care of the hole at DH, and Huff could move to third base.

Would I prefer a younger third base option, sure. So I'm not against moving Huff for a young third base prospect. I'm not against moving Sherrill if we can get the right return either, but I also think he can be a valuable member of a contending bullpen, even if it's not at closer.

I don't think it's an either or situation.

The O's are rebuilding, but if young impact bats become available the Orioles would be foolish to not try and sign or trade for them in my opinion.

I've said this before, but if the Orioles look like this in 2010, we're a contender:

2B - Roberts
RF - Markakis
1B - Teixeira
DH - Dunn
C- Wieters
LF - Scott/Reimold
CF- Jones
3B - Hopefully a young third base prospect acquired through a trade or Snyder/Rowell develops
SS - Hoepfully a young SS but a good glove decent stick guy would be fine.

Rotation:
Guthrie
Matusz
Tillman
and the best of Olson/Liz/Spoone/Bergesen/Hernandez/Penn/Patton/Arrieta

And that's without adding Burnett...

I don't think we're as far as some think...

[Tony-OH]

I agree with everything you said here Tony, although I'm mighty skeptical that the O's or anyone else can induce Boras to operate on anyone's timetable other than his own.

If Team Tex decides they want to resolve things quickly, then that's what will happen. However if they think it's to their advantage to drag things out, then the O's will be pretty much powerless to stop it. Their only leverage will be the threat of walking away.

You are absolutely right Dave. That's why MacPahil has to be willing to go to Plan B fairly quickly if Boras wants to go into wait mode.

Sometimes knowing when to fold is a great trait for a GM.

[JakeeO]

I really like this plan in the short term if the team moves Mora to the bench, Huff to third and goes after Dunn, at least as far as the lineup is concerned.

2B Roberts
CF Jones
RF Markakis
1B Texiera
DH Dunn
3B Huff
LF Scott
C Weiters
SS Anyone who can field and hit .250

Bench:
IF Mora
OF Reimold
C Quiroz
1B Millar/one more UTI

That is a nasty lineup that can compete with any in the league. Not all that fast in the middle, but there is no let up in there and it allows the rookie catcher to settle in without having to be a major contributor. And even if Huff falls back to earth a bit, 25 HRs, 80 RBI and a .280 average -- which would be very average numbers for him -- is plenty from your third baseman as long as he is fielding his position at the league average or better ,which Huff has shown he can do.

Mora on the bench is the best case situation. He is versatile and adequate in the field and would not be relied upon to be an everyday contributor on offense. But he has also been fairly solid with runners in scoring position, so it would allow Trembley to pick his spots with Mora and would allow him the luxury of having a pinch hitter who can actually produce in the clutch. This is a much better situation than what the O's and most teams have. If Mora doesn't like it, fine. Let him waive his no trade clause and dump him. I think, though, that he might just realize that this is best for the team and that if he really wants to win in Baltimore, as he has stated all along, this is his shot. And he is stepping aside on a team that has better talent than himself -- not just stepping aside for a rebuild.

This also allows Reimold to get his feet wet, and if he needs more work to be shuttled back and forth between Norfolk and Baltimore.

But this lineup also does not handcuff the team into the distant future. Huff, Roberts, Mora are all free agents after the year. If there is any sign of decline the O's can part ways no strings attached and pick up draft picks. Or if the team is tanking -- like it has in the past when it went for the stacked lineup approach -- two of those pieces are very trade-able.

That salary coming off the books also allows the team to sign Markakis long term.

That lineup takes significant pressure off of what will still be a young pitching staff. And the bullpen, assuming it stays largely the same -- with the addition of Ray and the subtraction of Walker -- should provide even more protection for a young rotation. That veteran started that BB says the team wants to add does not have to be an ace, just an innings eater who can put up a league average ERA who can stop any negative momentum should the young guns hit a snag, someone to help avoid taxing the bullpen.

It allows for a year or two leeway in which time Jones and Markakis can move into their primes, Weiters can establish himself, and in which time whatever positional prospects the team acquires can develop -- and with a little bit of luck in which time the likes of Rowell and Snyder can develop.

Short term that lineup has no holes, and longterm this team would have to fill gaps at 3B, 2B and SS. Over two or three years that should be very very doable, especially as the lower minor league pitching prospects develop and become more valuable in trade.

Between Ramon, Walker, Payton and maybe Cabrera, the bullpen pieces and some of the pitching prospects, McPhail can go out and trade for a low-minors SS prospect with a high ceiling and would have time to let him develop as opposed to going for someone almost ML ready who would cost much more.

Bottom line is I like this plan -- as long as the team goes after Dunn as well. Or maybe takes a chance on Rocco Baldelli, moving Scott to DH. But that's a whole other story.

[Dipper9]

This is where I disagree with you. The Orioles don't need to blow it up? We have parts to a contending team and I believe if we add two bats and the starting pitching develops we will be in decent shape by 2010-2011.

The guys we have to trade are not going to bring premium prospects back that we can build around and even if we do get some pieces, there's no guarantees they'll hit well in the majors.

That's why I like MacPhail's philosophy of drafting and developing pitchers and then trade for or sign established bats.

You can't tell me if we added Tex and Dunn this off-season that we would not be contender by at least 2010 if not 2009. What if we added Burnett as well?

Now that's a lot of salary to take on, and I don't think the O's will be able to do this, but I don't see how you can say we are so far away that we need to blow it up.

I've never subscribed to the theory that Roberts needs to be traded because I think he's going to be a player that ages very well and will be a top leadoff guy for at least five more years.

Tex would take care of the hole at first, Dunn would take care of the hole at DH, and Huff could move to third base.

Would I prefer a younger third base option, sure. So I'm not against moving Huff for a young third base prospect. I'm not against moving Sherrill if we can get the right return either, but I also think he can be a valuable member of a contending bullpen, even if it's not at closer.

I don't think it's an either or situation.

The O's are rebuilding, but if young impact bats become available the Orioles would be foolish to not try and sign or trade for them in my opinion.

I've said this before, but if the Orioles look like this in 2010, we're a contender:

2B - Roberts
RF - Markakis
1B - Teixeira
DH - Dunn
C- Wieters
LF - Scott/Reimold
CF- Jones
3B - Hopefully a young third base prospect acquired through a trade or Snyder/Rowell develops
SS - Hoepfully a young SS but a good glove decent stick guy would be fine.

Rotation:
Guthrie
Matusz
and the best of Olson/Liz/Spoone/Bergesen/Hernandez/Penn/Patton/Arrieta

And that's without adding Burnett...

I don't think we're as far as some think...

I like your thinking oh fearless leader! Sign me up for that squad! :clap3:

[Anlbdz]

Can anyone give me a good reason why Tex would sign here? Hometown? he's been gone from MD since his freshman year in college, roughly 10 years. Homecomings are a nice and cute stories, but I don't think that sways his decision when teams like the Yankees can give him the same if not more money to be on a huge market, play-off competitive team.

[davearm]

One thing that strikes me is, for years the end of 2009 has been correctly identified as a transition point, with all of the contracts that expire at that time (Roberts, Huff, Mora, etc.). Now a slew of new guys from the Bedard and Tejada deals has smoothed over that switchpoint somewhat, but it's still there.

What seems unclear with this plan is, what is the next step, when the end of 2009 arrives?

Saying you're going to sign Tex, trade for a vet pitcher and a vet SS doesn't do much to illuminate what the retain/replace gameplan is for those other guys I mentioned.

[Tony-OH]

Trading Huff and Ramon is essential. You can trade Huff for an innings eater and a prospect. That will possibly allow us to be more willing to trade DCab for the SS prospect and more pitching prospects. The FO is hesitant to deal DCab because he's only 1 of 2 innings eaters in the rotation.

We can hold off dealing Sherrill until next year's trade deadline since he still will have value next year. Also this will give the O's a chance to evaluate other closer options (i.e. Ray and JJ).

If Huff and Ramon are traded by the deadline this allows Reimold and Wieters to get ABs before 2009 and ultimately allows us to obtain a legitimate SS.

Tex will still sign if our lineup is not a "contender" on paper.

I have no problem with any of this. Ramon has to be dealt whether it's at the trading deadline or this offseason. Personally, I don't see us getting much back but anything of value is good. Let's hope he keeps hitting and a contender's catcher goes down.

As for Huff, if the right deal is there he has to go, but I'm not giving him away. Right now he's a decently priced bat who's performing well.

[TinCup]

This is where I disagree with you. The Orioles don't need to blow it up? We have parts to a contending team and I believe if we add two bats and the starting pitching develops we will be in decent shape by 2010-2011.

The guys we have to trade are not going to bring premium prospects back that we can build around and even if we do get some pieces, there's no guarantees they'll hit well in the majors.

That's why I like MacPhail's philosophy of drafting and developing pitchers and then trade for or sign established bats.

You can't tell me if we added Tex and Dunn this off-season that we would not be contender by at least 2010 if not 2009. What if we added Burnett as well?

Now that's a lot of salary to take on, and I don't think the O's will be able to do this, but I don't see how you can say we are so far away that we need to blow it up.

I've never subscribed to the theory that Roberts needs to be traded because I think he's going to be a player that ages very well and will be a top leadoff guy for at least five more years.

Tex would take care of the hole at first, Dunn would take care of the hole at DH, and Huff could move to third base.

Would I prefer a younger third base option, sure. So I'm not against moving Huff for a young third base prospect. I'm not against moving Sherrill if we can get the right return either, but I also think he can be a valuable member of a contending bullpen, even if it's not at closer.

I don't think it's an either or situation.

The O's are rebuilding, but if young impact bats become available the Orioles would be foolish to not try and sign or trade for them in my opinion.

I've said this before, but if the Orioles look like this in 2010, we're a contender:

2B - Roberts
RF - Markakis
1B - Teixeira
DH - Dunn
C- Wieters
LF - Scott/Reimold
CF- Jones
3B - Hopefully a young third base prospect acquired through a trade or Snyder/Rowell develops
SS - Hoepfully a young SS but a good glove decent stick guy would be fine.

Rotation:
Guthrie
Matusz
and the best of Olson/Liz/Spoone/Bergesen/Hernandez/Penn/Patton/Arrieta

And that's without adding Burnett...

I don't think we're as far as some think...

Could I make a pitch for us mere mortals to be able to pump Tony with rep points whenever or "at any time", irregardless of whether or not I've passed too much out in the last 24 hours?


Note: for those of you feel this is an attempt to shamelessly suck up to Tony, well, let me get back to you....

[Echoes]

The idea of "blowing it up" should still exist...People are acting as if we made 2 trades and all is well and things will just fall into place for us.

This team is so far away from contending on a regular basis...Not sure why people are missing this idea.

And what happens after 2009? What are you going to do with DH? Third?

Are you extending BRob?

What is the status of Markakis?

Do you really want to go back and relive the idea of a bunch of 30 somethings being able to have career years and every else in the division faltering?

This is the same strategy that caused the 10 losing seasons.

I don't think nearly anyone on this board knows how to turn around a franchise and get them competing for the World Series year in and year out. This thread has been so depressing to read... as if Teixera is the answer to all the O's problems.

Complete. Roster. Overhaul.

Without it, the O's will never seriously repeat outside of, like SG said, a bunch of 30 somethings having a one off career year.

Roberts and Sherill need to be used to garner more talent. They're our most valuable pieces, and they need to be moved.

We need more pitching. No team is going to seriously compete with Daniel Cabrera in their rotation, or with Jeremy Guthrie as the ace. It's not happening. Loewen is a bust. Burress is not a ML starter. Liz is not a major league starter. Penn is not a major league starter. So we've got Tillman and Arrieta working their way up. THAT'S NOT ENOUGH. What happens if they don't turn out well, what then? You're screwed for 3-4 years, that's what. They need more and more options, guys that top out as front end starters.

Millar at first base is a joke. He needs to go.

Mora is washed up, needs to be moved or released.

Depending on Aubrey Huff to be in the heart of your order is a risky bet at best. Not to mention depending on a possible FA franchise to shape your entire team.

Hernandez? Cut or traded.

Luke Scott? A fill in starter for a year or two, but if we seriously want to compete this spot needs to be upgraded.

Payton, Walker, Bradford? See ya, see ya, see ya.

This team is so far away from legitimately competing for a WS that it's laughable that so many people are content with what BB has posted will be the modus operandi. I couldn't be more disappointed in his post.

[Tony-OH]

The big key there is the young SS and 3B guy that you are talking about. The only way we are going to get those guys, unless we are trading minor league pitching for minor league offense which you don't see too often, is from trading guys like Huff, Sherrill, and Dcab. And if you could trade an Olson or Liz for them, wouldn't it still make more sense to hold onto those young cheap guys and trade an older guy like Huff who is having a career year and who will cost 12 million to extend at least when people wanted to pay 12 million of the 18 million he was still owed last offseason simply to get him off our hands!

And no way we are going to add Tex, Dunn, Burnett (would be a horrible signing), extend Roberts, extend Markakis, and hold onto the salaries of Huff and Mora.

Again, I'm not against moving Huff or Sherrill for the right price. Mora and Huff's contracts will be over after 2009 so remember, we're talking 2010 and beyond.

As for Burnett, if the Orioles can get him without giving up a top prospect, I'm not against adding him because he's better than he's been and perhaps the change of scenery will do him good. He would provide a good gap until our minor league pitching depth is ready in 2010.

Markakis and Roberts should be extended since I believe they are both part of the future, but if the right deal for Roberts existed I'd be willing to move him. But, we'd have to get back a potential leadoff guy because we don't have one without Roberts.

[davearm]

You are absolutely right Dave. That's why MacPahil has to be willing to go to Plan B fairly quickly if Boras wants to go into wait mode.

Sometimes knowing when to fold is a great trait for a GM.
I have to admit, one angle I hadn't considered was this one -- the O's have a strong offer on the table and feel they're a "finalist" for Tex, but at some point they just say, hey, we can't wait any longer so we're moving on, with Tex still unsigned.

After literally years of anticipation, that would be an incredible way for the Tex pursuit to end.

[Fan4Life]

I think what we have with Huff though, with the way he's playing, is your typical gun for hire. He's contracted for another year at a decently cheap price. Also, teams KNOW that he almost always heats up in the second half. To me, that would be pretty attractive for a team looking to add offense.

Sherrill, is a proven LOOGY, and has also proven he can close games, pitch in tight situations, and seems pretty unflappable. Under contract for peanuts and you get him for a few years.

Yes, Macphail may over value players at times, but i think with those two, he really can position it to get a pretty good deal.

On the flipside, that factor alone could prevent a deal from happening, I guess like always, we get to sit back and go for the ride.

You made a good point in yoru earlier post about the successful trades this past offseason. In this post you point out the value of some players and how we should be open to moving them if we hope to continue a successful rebuild going forward. I would submit to you that MacPhail didn't get top $$$ (in terms of talent) for Tejada and Bedard by plastering his strategy all over the public airwaves.. what BB has posted may be a real strategy, a subset of a real strategy, or misinformation for the purpose of creating an upper hand. Only time will tell which of these or any combination of these holds the truth.

[Sports Guy]

The guys we have to trade are not going to bring premium prospects back that we can build around and even if we do get some pieces, there's no guarantees they'll hit well in the majors.I disagree...I think we can get back some very good young prospects for BRob and Sherrill and I think DCab and Huff may bring us back a few nice pieces as well.


You can't tell me if we added Tex and Dunn this off-season that we would not be contender by at least 2010 if not 2009. What if we added Burnett as well? First of all, i think you are kidding yourself if you think AM is going to sign all of these guys(its just not his philopsophy)...Secondly, the idea of putting out the money for them is a bad idea IMO.

And lastly, no i don't think that will make us a contender because I don't think Dunn is going to age well and you have no idea what you are going to get with Burnett.

,
but I don't see how you can say we are so far away that we need to blow it up.Well, after 2009, we need a third baseman and DH and first baseman(unless we sign Tex)...Depending on BRob, we also may need a second baseman. Then, in a few years, we will have a 32/33 year old Luke Scott...How will he be doing as he gets older?

So, where are these replacements coming from? You yourself don't think Reimold is an everyday player and you have serious doubts about Rowell...So, where are we going to get all of these guys?

Assuming we extend markakis, the only sure thing position players are Jones, Wieters and Markakis, assuming health...beyond that, what do we have long term?

I've never subscribed to the theory that Roberts needs to be traded because I think he's going to be a player that ages very well and will be a top leadoff guy for at least five more years.


Tex would take care of the hole at first, Dunn would take care of the hole at DH, and Huff could move to third base.
But what is your plan if we don't sign 1 or both of these guys?

Would I prefer a younger third base option, sure. So I'm not against moving Huff for a young third base prospect. I'm not against moving Sherrill if we can get the right return either, but I also think he can be a valuable member of a contending bullpen, even if it's not at closer. Sherrill absolutely can be part of a contender...No one is doubting that. But he serves us better by getting 1-2 yound position players than by closing for us.



The O's are rebuilding, but if young impact bats become available the Orioles would be foolish to not try and sign or trade for them in my opinion.
But what are you going to trade for them? You don't want to trade our tradeable assets on the ML team and our young pitching isn't as deep as it as a few weeks ago because of the injuries.

I've said this before, but if the Orioles look like this in 2010, we're a contender:

2B - Roberts
RF - Markakis
1B - Teixeira
DH - Dunn
C- Wieters
LF - Scott/Reimold
CF- Jones
3B - Hopefully a young third base prospect acquired through a trade or Snyder/Rowell develops
SS - Hoepfully a young SS but a good glove decent stick guy would be fine.

Rotation:
Guthrie
Matusz
and the best of Olson/Liz/Spoone/Bergesen/Hernandez/Penn/Patton/Arrieta

And that's without adding Burnett...

I don't think we're as far as some think...

Again, what is plan B when Tex and/or Dunn signs elsewhere?

Going to extend Huff into his mid 30s? Bring back Millar? Trade 4 or 5 players for Prince Fielder?

[Mackus]

I've said this before, but if the Orioles look like this in 2010, we're a contender:

2B - Roberts
RF - Markakis
1B - Teixeira
DH - Dunn
C- Wieters
LF - Scott/Reimold
CF- Jones
3B - Hopefully a young third base prospect acquired through a trade or Snyder/Rowell develops
SS - Hoepfully a young SS but a good glove decent stick guy would be fine.

Rotation:
Guthrie
Matusz
Tillman
and the best of Olson/Liz/Spoone/Bergesen/Hernandez/Penn/Patton/Arrieta

And that's without adding Burnett...

I don't think we're as far as some think...I don't think signing Dunn is either smart, plausible, or something MacPhail would consider. So if you take that out, then we've got no DH, no SS, and no 3B. Maybe we have a DH if Scott plays there and Reimold plays LF.

We still need a SS and 3B. So you'll have to trade some young pitching to get it. Then you don't have the neccesary depth to even hope that two or more of them can be solid #2's or better. And Guthrie is certainly no ace.

I agree that signing Tex is a good move. And I'd also keep Roberts at this point. Unless someone offers me that young 3B or SS and another decent SS, I keep Sherrill. But I really don't see the downside of moving Huff if we get good offers for him.

[Tony-OH]

This team is so far away from legitimately competing for a WS that it's laughable that so many people are content with what BB has posted will be the modus operandi. I couldn't be more disappointed in his post.

Maybe you need to learn a little respect around here because around here, opinions from knowledgeable posters are not laughable!!

Your opinion is a valid one, but it's just that, an opinion. Degrading other opinions is first class way to have a very short "lifespan" on this board.

[tywright]

But will the value be where it is now? That is extremely debateable and, IMO, unlikely.

He'll still be cheap and still be in the closer role through this time next year. His value would still be relatively close to where it is now.

[Sports Guy]

Again, I'm not against moving Huff or Sherrill for the right price. Mora and Huff's contracts will be over after 2009 so remember, we're talking 2010 and beyond.

As for Burnett, if the Orioles can get him without giving up a top prospect, I'm not against adding him because he's better than he's been and perhaps the change of scenery will do him good. He would provide a good gap until our minor league pitching depth is ready in 2010.

Markakis and Roberts should be extended since I believe they are both part of the future, but if the right deal for Roberts existed I'd be willing to move him. But, we'd have to get back a potential leadoff guy because we don't have one without Roberts.

Why trade for Burnett? He can opt out of his contract after this season.

[davearm]

Again, I'm not against moving Huff or Sherrill for the right price. Mora and Huff's contracts will be over after 2009 so remember, we're talking 2010 and beyond.

As for Burnett, if the Orioles can get him without giving up a top prospect, I'm not against adding him because he's better than he's been and perhaps the change of scenery will do him good. He would provide a good gap until our minor league pitching depth is ready in 2010.

Markakis and Roberts should be extended since I believe they are both part of the future, but if the right deal for Roberts existed I'd be willing to move him. But, we'd have to get back a potential leadoff guy because we don't have one without Roberts.
Seems as though conventional wisdom is that Burnett will opt out.

Show him the money as a FA, and the O's only other cost is potentially a draft pick, if Burnett comes in a Type A.

[Sports Guy]

He'll still be cheap and still be in the closer role through this time next year. His value would still be relatively close to where it is now.

You are ready to say this with 100% certainty(assuming health)?

[Sports Guy]

Seems as though conventional wisdom is that Burnett will opt out.

Show him the money as a FA, and the O's only other cost is potentially a draft pick, if Burnett comes in a Type A.
Yep...We are looking at a lot of lost draft picks with Tony's plan. That isn't good for a system that isn't all that deep to begin with.

[JTrea81]

The only problem with signing Tex and Dunn is that it will take away our first and second round picks potentially. Add Burnett and we won't have a draft pick until the fourth round. I see people are on the same wavelength.

I can live with losing our first round pick, but losing the second and third round picks wouldn't be smart unless we are guaranteed to compete starting in 2009...

[Dr. FLK]

Yep...We are looking at a lot of lost draft picks with Tony's plan. That isn't good for a system that isn't all that deep to begin with.

Yeah...put me in the "don't give away draft picks" camp. For Tex, I could accept it. For AJ Burnett? No thanks.

[tywright]

You are ready to say this with 100% certainty(assuming health)?

Yes...2 blown saves and couple shaky outings does not warrant losing the closer's role. I still don't have confidence that JJ can continue his hot streak so who else would take Sherrill's role in the next 12 months? Ray sure isn't going to be allowed until he's good and ready.

[Hank Scorpio]

Seems as though conventional wisdom is that Burnett will opt out.

Show him the money as a FA, and the O's only other cost is potentially a draft pick, if Burnett comes in a Type A.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo thank you!

[Sports Guy]

Yes...2 blown saves and couple shaky outings does not warrant losing the closer's role. I still don't have confidence that JJ can continue his hit streak so who else would take Sherrill's role in the next 12 months? Ray sure isn't going to be allowed until he's good and ready.

I just disagree with this, so I will leave it at that.

I certainly think he could still be the closer but I think it is more likely he won't be.

[davearm]

Yep...We are looking at a lot of lost draft picks with Tony's plan. That isn't good for a system that isn't all that deep to begin with.
You're giving me flashbacks to the year the Cubs went into the draft with no 2, 3 or 4, so they decided to reach for Colvin in the first as a below-slot signability pick, and then come back with Samardzija in the 5th and pay him like a first-rounder. That's worked out well. :rolleyes:

[DrungoHazewood]

And no way we are going to add Tex, Dunn, Burnett (would be a horrible signing), extend Roberts, extend Markakis, and hold onto the salaries of Huff and Mora.

Why not? The 2008 payroll is $67M Shedding Hernandez, Walker, Bradford, and Payton would free up about $20M. So we're starting off around $50M. Let's say Tex is $25M, Dunn $12M, Burnett or another top starter is $15M, Roberts $12M, and they hold off extending Markakis for a few years. Add $10M for various arbitration eligibles and other signings. That leaves a payroll of about $120M.

The Orioles' 1998 payroll was $71M. Just adjusting for inflation that's nearly $100M. Figuring in MASN revenues, increased ticket prices, MLBAM revenues, and other league-wide revenue increases I'd guess a winning O's team could absorb another $20M pretty easily.

The St. Louis Cardinals, with a metropolitan area comparable to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Sacramento, have a payroll of $100M. The Mariners are at $117M. The Blue Jays $118M.

I'm not going to suggest that a $120M payroll is a great idea, or the only way the O's get back to contention. But I'm also not going to suggest it would push the O's into the red.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, this thread is turning into one really good debate by everyone.

[Sports Guy]

Why not? The 2008 payroll is $67M Shedding Hernandez, Walker, Bradford, and Payton would free up about $20M. So we're starting off around $50M. Let's say Tex is $25M, Dunn $12M, Burnett or another top starter is $15M, Roberts $12M, and they hold off extending Markakis for a few years. Add $10M for various arbitration eligibles and other signings. That leaves a payroll of about $120M.

The Orioles' 1998 payroll was $71M. Just adjusting for inflation that's nearly $100M. Figuring in MASN revenues, increased ticket prices, MLBAM revenues, and other league-wide revenue increases I'd guess a winning O's team could absorb another $20M pretty easily.

The St. Louis Cardinals, with a metropolitan area comparable to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Sacramento, have a payroll of $100M. The Mariners are at $117M. The Blue Jays $118M.

I'm not going to suggest that a $120M payroll is a great idea, or the only way the O's get back to contention. But I'm also not going to suggest it would push the O's into the red.AM isn't going to make that many big splashes in free agency...Its not his style and he is right about it.

I think he will go after Tex though.

[Tony-OH]

Again, what is plan B when Tex and/or Dunn signs elsewhere?



I don't think we're as far a part as you think Rob.

I'm not against making the deals you talk about IF they are available. I also agree that I doubt we will sign both Tex and Dunn, although both of those bats would do wonders for the lineup.

Plan B would certainly involve trying to move a lot of the guys you mentioned. Cabrera, Huff, Sherrill, Bradford, Walker, Mora (if possible) and... well anyone not named Markakis or Jones.

What's are nucleus right now for the next five years?
RF - Markakis
CF - Jones
2B - Roberts (leadoff guy and a guy i think will remain a productive player)
SP - Guthrie (I think he's underrated by a lot of folks becuase of the W-L record that he can't control)
C - Wieters

And a whole lot of young pitching that will need to sort itself out.

That's a lot of holes, I agree, but we can't have superstars at every position. We need an impact bat or two an Tex certainly provides one.

[Tony-OH]

I don't think signing Dunn is either smart, plausible, or something MacPhail would consider. So if you take that out, then we've got no DH, no SS, and no 3B. Maybe we have a DH if Scott plays there and Reimold plays LF.

We still need a SS and 3B. So you'll have to trade some young pitching to get it. Then you don't have the neccesary depth to even hope that two or more of them can be solid #2's or better. And Guthrie is certainly no ace.

I agree that signing Tex is a good move. And I'd also keep Roberts at this point. Unless someone offers me that young 3B or SS and another decent SS, I keep Sherrill. But I really don't see the downside of moving Huff if we get good offers for him.

Neither do I. I'm going to have to reread my stuff because I'm still not sure where I said keeping Huff is a priority? ;)

All I've said is I'm not going to give him away.

[Sanfran327]

Another thing about rebuilding is that it isn't necessarily a season-long or multi-season process. We already did the essential parts of a rebuild. We traded our two best players for 10 prospects. We thought about trading our third best player, but didn't like the return on it. Unfortunately, the rest of the roster is filled with players that aren't easy to move, either because of skill or salary - or both. You don't necessarily have to reduce a team to a gravel parking lot to start a rebuild.

Roberts and Huff are only 30 and 31, respectively, and Scott is 29. They're not over the hill by any stretch. And to think that Huff can't improve on his career average numbers with an improved approach at the plate at only 31 is strange logic. I think he is towards the end of his prime years, but certainly still in that window. Maybe Crowley finally helped somebody fix their swing. Maybe this could have a cary-over for several seasons. He's always liked hittnig in Baltimore - I'm pretty sure that's the reason we got him. If anything, last year's stats were an aboration of his numbers at OPACY. It's definitely a lefty-friendly park. There are many doubles to be had with the out-of-town scoreboard and the huge RCF power alley.

He's not Papi, but that's not being asked of him anyway. I'm probably the only one who would say this, but unless we can afford to sign Dunn this winter in addition to Tex to replace Huffy after 2009 as our full-time DH, I wouldn't mind seeing Huff extended for two more seasons. There's nothing wrong with him if he continues producing the way hs is now - the way he's capable of producing in the future.

Also, it was only his last year in TB that wasn't any good. His numbers from 2002-2005 were solid productivity for a DH not named Ortiz or Hafner. I'd happily take a player that I can pencil in for 20+ HRs and 90+ RBI.

[Tony-OH]

Yep...We are looking at a lot of lost draft picks with Tony's plan. That isn't good for a system that isn't all that deep to begin with.

Burnett would be a trade. We would lose two draft picks for Tex and Dunn. If we don't go for Dunn, so be it. If we can trade for a guy without adding Dunn, ever better.

[tywright]

I just disagree with this, so I will leave it at that.

I certainly think he could still be the closer but I think it is more likely he won't be.

I think it's more likely he will since he has the best K/BB ratio in the bullpen and other than JJ (27K/21BB .204 BABIP), no other candidates have made a legitimate case. Now Ray may make a case next year, but I don't see DT taking Sherrill out of the role unless he's dealt. Ray needs to be eased back into the role. He should start off as the 7th IP guy then co-setup with JJ and fight for the closer role when Sherrill is dealt next July.

[Rolotomassie]

I'm fine with wating til the offseason to decide on how to proceed, but with one exception.....If there is any kind of a market at the deadline for Sherrill, it's a HUGE mistake not to trade him. BB's post indicates that AM wants to trade for a veteran starter and a SS. What is he gonna trade, if not Sherrill or Huff or Roberts? Cabrera? That would be a mistake. Does he think he will get a halfway decent SS or SP for Payton, Hernandez, Walker, or Bradford?

I personally would be looking to deal Roberts - who is a very good player but is already starting to lose his most outstanding asset, his speed - and Sherrill, Huff, Hernandez, Walker, and Bradford. Of course you don't deal Roberts or Huff without getting a very good return.

I would not trade Guthrie or Cabrera. Both are still on the upside of their careers and are the type of horses you want in your stable, even if they aren't true aces. Plus there are too many other starters out there on the trading block right now to get a good return for them.

So count me in the camp that's not alarmed, but also not overly enthusiastic about the info in Bigbird's post. I'm OK with waiting til the offseason for everyone except Sherrill, but to pin all our plans on Teixeira is not smart.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah...put me in the "don't give away draft picks" camp. For Tex, I could accept it. For AJ Burnett? No thanks.


Burnett would be a trade. We would lose two draft picks for Tex and Dunn. If we don't go for Dunn, so be it. If we can trade for a guy without adding Dunn, ever better.

But Burnett can opt out after this year...What are you giving up for a rental?

[Dr. FLK]

I don't think we're as far a part as you think Rob.

I'm not against making the deals you talk about IF they are available. I also agree that I doubt we will sign both Tex and Dunn, although both of those bats would do wonders for the lineup.

Plan B would certainly involve trying to move a lot of the guys you mentioned. Cabrera, Huff, Sherrill, Bradford, Walker, Mora (if possible) and... well anyone not named Markakis or Jones.

What's are nucleus right now for the next five years?
RF - Markakis
CF - Jones
2B - Roberts (leadoff guy and a guy i think will remain a productive player)
SP - Guthrie (I think he's underrated by a lot of folks becuase of the W-L record that he can't control)
C - Wieters

And a whole lot of young pitching that will need to sort itself out.

That's a lot of holes, I agree, but we can't have superstars at every position. We need an impact bat or two an Tex certainly provides one.

I think people focus on the bats as our primary problem. And sure, we need an impact bat or 2. We also need a competent bench. But, what about pitching? What SP do we have that we can count on for the next 5 years? We like to assume that all of our prospects will pan out, but that's not really all that likely. Some of them won't live up to expectations. We're only "close" to contention if our SP pans out...and if we find a few more impact bats...and if we find a legit bench...and if our bullpen comes through. That's a lot of if's.

A plan that involves signing Tex and/or Dunn seems like wishful thinking. We had a plan that involved Konerko. And we had a plan that involved Vlad. Maybe we get one...maybe we even get both. But the focus needs to be on adding organizational depth. Without that, we'll be in the same boat we've always been.

[Sports Guy]

I think it's more likely he will since he has the best K/BB ratio in the bullpen and other than JJ (27K/21BB .204 BABIP), no other candidates have made a legitimate case. Now Ray may make a case next year, but I don't see DT taking Sherrill out of the role unless he's dealt. Ray needs to be eased back into the role. He should start off as the 7th IP guy then co-setup with JJ and fight for the closer role when Sherrill is dealt next July.

We agree that DT won't take Sherrill out of that role unless Sherrill's play dictates the need to "demote him".

[Dr. FLK]

But Burnett can opt out after this year...What are you giving up for a rental?

I don't want to rent him. I don't want to give up picks for him. If he can show up for a few years without us giving up picks, I'm OK. Otherwise, I'll pass on AJ.

[RZNJ]

I am wondering why everyone is all of the sudden having such a hard time grasping this concept of trading away good trading pieces. Wasn't it just 6-7 months ago that we were so excited for all the trades we made, and all the new youthful exuberance it brought in. We finally found a center fielder, a decent option in LF, some more young pitching depth, some bullpen help. Why in the world are half of us scoffing at the idea of continuing that momentum. I think we'd all love to be pulling for a team with an actual answer at SS, a change at 3b, an answer at 1b. We're not really finding those answers anytime soon from within........must trade for these prospects

I love the feel of flat-brim out there closing games, but do we really honestly believe that he is a long-term closing solution? He's exciting, yes. Why wouldn't we trade him for a good package back.

Same with Huff, yes, the guy can rake when he's on, but he's not getting any younger and I have no doubt that he will go where the money is when his contract is up.

between those two i would think that we could get probably 4-5 pretty good prospects/ML ready players.

Trade Walker for peanuts, who cares if it's marginal prospect, at least the contract is off our books.

Payton, why is he here? trade him for another marginal prospect...give reimold a taste.


I guess my frustration is that the plan BB outlined sounds oddly familiar to what we've done in the past. Yes, we've rebuilt a little bit, but a half rebuilding will just put us in the crapper long-term. Whereas the Sox and Rays will keep churning out talent, making trades when necessary and remaining on top.

I don't mind the view this season of looking competitive and playing teams close, but I don't want that view for the next 5 seasons is all I'm saying.


Gotta admit. This is an excellent post. I'm just not sure about the return for Huff & Sherrill but it's possible to get something close to that.

[Dipper9]

I think it's more likely he will since he has the best K/BB ratio in the bullpen and other than JJ (27K/21BB .204 BABIP), no other candidates have made a legitimate case. Now Ray may make a case next year, but I don't see DT taking Sherrill out of the role unless he's dealt. Ray needs to be eased back into the role. He should start off as the 7th IP guy then co-setup with JJ and fight for the closer role when Sherrill is dealt next July.

If we ever become a serious contender (Tony' lineup, eh?) then Ray-JJ-Sherril in the 7-8-9 innings looks pretty damn solid!

[Mackus]

But Burnett can opt out after this year...What are you giving up for a rental?I'd consider (but probably ultimately wouldn't go for it) trading for Burnett now with a window to extend him. Maybe give him a 3/$39M deal (tear up his current contract).

So essentially he'd have the option of choosing where he's gonna play (in a place where reportedly he had a lot of interest before) and the security of a 3/$39M deal in case people don't think he's worth the money.

If he takes more money than that, or wants 2-3 years on top of his current two years left, or if he won't sign an extension, no way do I trade for him. And if it takes a ton of talent to get him, I don't either. I make the Blue Jays trade him with the value of a rental, and then hope to get an extension done with him.

Its a very long shot all those scenarios work out, but thats pretty much the only way I'd be interested in Burnett.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think we're as far a part as you think Rob.

I'm not against making the deals you talk about IF they are available. I also agree that I doubt we will sign both Tex and Dunn, although both of those bats would do wonders for the lineup.

Plan B would certainly involve trying to move a lot of the guys you mentioned. Cabrera, Huff, Sherrill, Bradford, Walker, Mora (if possible) and... well anyone not named Markakis or Jones.

What's are nucleus right now for the next five years?
RF - Markakis
CF - Jones
2B - Roberts (leadoff guy and a guy i think will remain a productive player)
SP - Guthrie (I think he's underrated by a lot of folks becuase of the W-L record that he can't control)
C - Wieters

And a whole lot of young pitching that will need to sort itself out.

That's a lot of holes, I agree, but we can't have superstars at every position. We need an impact bat or two an Tex certainly provides one.
Tony, answer these questions for me(i haven't seen you address them, if you have, sorry):

1) What kind of extension would you give BRob and when do you think he needs to be signed?

2) What kind of return would you expect for Sherrill, DCab and Huff to make you want to pull the trigger?

3) What contracts would you propose giving to Dunn and Tex?

[TGO]

If Burnett opts for free agency, the team that signs him will not lose picks. You can't offer arbitration to a guy who opts out, so Toronto cannot get picks for him.

So whether you trade for him or sign him, no picks lost.

The problem is if you trade for him and he doesn't opt out, you're stuck with his contract. I think that's likely because I think he would like to be in Baltimore. His wife gave him a shot to make the Toronto thing work and it doesn't seem to be.

[RZNJ]

This is where I disagree with you. The Orioles don't need to blow it up? We have parts to a contending team and I believe if we add two bats and the starting pitching develops we will be in decent shape by 2010-2011.

The guys we have to trade are not going to bring premium prospects back that we can build around and even if we do get some pieces, there's no guarantees they'll hit well in the majors.

That's why I like MacPhail's philosophy of drafting and developing pitchers and then trade for or sign established bats.

You can't tell me if we added Tex and Dunn this off-season that we would not be contender by at least 2010 if not 2009. What if we added Burnett as well?

Now that's a lot of salary to take on, and I don't think the O's will be able to do this, but I don't see how you can say we are so far away that we need to blow it up.

I've never subscribed to the theory that Roberts needs to be traded because I think he's going to be a player that ages very well and will be a top leadoff guy for at least five more years.

Tex would take care of the hole at first, Dunn would take care of the hole at DH, and Huff could move to third base.

Would I prefer a younger third base option, sure. So I'm not against moving Huff for a young third base prospect. I'm not against moving Sherrill if we can get the right return either, but I also think he can be a valuable member of a contending bullpen, even if it's not at closer.

I don't think it's an either or situation.

The O's are rebuilding, but if young impact bats become available the Orioles would be foolish to not try and sign or trade for them in my opinion.

I've said this before, but if the Orioles look like this in 2010, we're a contender:

2B - Roberts
RF - Markakis
1B - Teixeira
DH - Dunn
C- Wieters
LF - Scott/Reimold
CF- Jones
3B - Hopefully a young third base prospect acquired through a trade or Snyder/Rowell develops
SS - Hoepfully a young SS but a good glove decent stick guy would be fine.

Rotation:
Guthrie
Matusz
Tillman
and the best of Olson/Liz/Spoone/Bergesen/Hernandez/Penn/Patton/Arrieta

And that's without adding Burnett...

I don't think we're as far as some think...

I disagree that this team is likely to be a contender. You have two probably rookies as the 2nd and 3rd starter with a bunch of other rookies (with the exception of Olson) as the 4th and 5th starters. Even with Burnett, that's too many question marks. We'd need an Oakland situation where the pitchers blossomed instantly in the majors. Very unlikely, IMO. Not to mention the complete holes at SS & 3B, with hopefully playing both positions.

[Dipper9]

If Burnett opts for free agency, the team that signs him will not lose picks. You can't offer arbitration to a guy who opts out, so Toronto cannot get picks for him.

So whether you trade for him or sign him, no picks lost.

The problem is if you trade for him and he doesn't opt out, you're stuck with his contract. I think that's likely because I think he would like to be in Baltimore. His wife gave him a shot to make the Toronto thing work and it doesn't seem to be.

Oh boy...here we go again. So, we are now the front runners for BOTH Tex and Burnett because they both have connections here? :eektf:

[Slappy]

It sounds like a reasonable direction. You cannot have a team full of 25 year olds. You need veteran players in their primes, up-and-coming youthful players, and a certain amount of luck.

I'm always surprised at how many people comment on how old Huff and Scott are. They are not old, they are in their prime. Huff is 31, Scott is 30. Chipper Jones and Jason Giambi are having monster years in their late 30's. Boston last year had two 35 year old guys (Ramirez and Varitek) as regulars, and Lowell was 33. If you can't contend in 3 years, you are not rebuilding right.

Huff and Scott can absolutely be pieces for the next competing team here. Sherrill, not so sure.

[tywright]

We agree that DT won't take Sherrill out of that role unless Sherrill's play dictates the need to "demote him".

I agree though DT won't have the luxury of many options

[allstar1579]

The thing with signing Tex is that he is looking to sign a long term contract. He is not looking for a 1 year deal to play for the WS and call it a day, so wherever he signs will have to be able to compete more than not. We may not be penciled in to win it all next year with him, but say he signs 6 years and we could compete for 5 of them, opposed to the Yankees who are an old team, and may have to "blow it up" to get young real quick and not compete for 4 of those 6. He is the best 1B to be on the market before 2010 (Fielder, Howard), and the best bat to be on the market in likely the same period.

The way teams are shifting to locking up young talent, and trading for guys for a pre-emptive strike at signing them, you have to take a stab at Tex, there will be less and less guys like this on the market. Pitching is a riskier sign, with the difference in leagues there is a genuine difference on how guys will adjust from one to the next, and someone who may be a stud in the NL, might get rocked with a large contract in the AL (Sheets comes to mind).

We have an enticing nucleus with Roberts, Weiters, Markakis, Scott, Jones and then Tex would give us 6 out of 9 positions above average. With more potential because of turnover at SS, 3B and DH we could upgrade there too.
The pitching will come, Guthrie is a good 2-3. Cabrera is a good 4. Matusz, Jake A., Bergesen, and Hernandez give us a good shot at a #1, 3 and 5.

So with all of this considered, are we really that far away from contention?

Not saying that if we are bowled over by an offer for Sherrill (who is replaceable), Huff (would need replaced so it'd have to be good)we shouldn't deal them because we should. The rest all have negative value and at this point we are just riding them out until 2009.

[TGO]

Oh boy...here we go again. So, we are now the front runners for BOTH Tex and Burnett because they both have connections here? :eektf:

Difference being I think most people are indifferent to Burnett this time around. A few years ago he still had some claim to ace potential. Now basically he is what he is.

Tex on the other hand is the OH's golden god. :laughlol:

[tywright]

If we ever become a serious contender (Tony' lineup, eh?) then Ray-JJ-Sherril in the 7-8-9 innings looks pretty damn solid!

Reminds me of the Lidge, Dotel, Wagner setup that the Astros had a few years back.

[Sports Guy]

I'd consider (but probably ultimately wouldn't go for it) trading for Burnett now with a window to extend him. Maybe give him a 3/$39M deal (tear up his current contract).

So essentially he'd have the option of choosing where he's gonna play (in a place where reportedly he had a lot of interest before) and the security of a 3/$39M deal in case people don't think he's worth the money.

If he takes more money than that, or wants 2-3 years on top of his current two years left, or if he won't sign an extension, no way do I trade for him. And if it takes a ton of talent to get him, I don't either. I make the Blue Jays trade him with the value of a rental, and then hope to get an extension done with him.

Its a very long shot all those scenarios work out, but thats pretty much the only way I'd be interested in Burnett.Personally, i think that is an awful contract for AJ.

The only way I would sign Burnett is giving him a 2 year incentive laden(IP) contract with a vesting 3rd year option that kicks in with at least 350 IP for the 2 years we would have him signed.

[davearm]

If Burnett opts for free agency, the team that signs him will not lose picks. You can't offer arbitration to a guy who opts out, so Toronto cannot get picks for him.

So whether you trade for him or sign him, no picks lost.

The problem is if you trade for him and he doesn't opt out, you're stuck with his contract. I think that's likely because I think he would like to be in Baltimore. His wife gave him a shot to make the Toronto thing work and it doesn't seem to be.
I'd be interested to know where you got that info. I have the opposite understanding.

[allstar1579]

We agree that DT won't take Sherrill out of that role unless Sherrill's play dictates the need to "demote him".

That is the problems with closers, if you demote them for a better option, they want to be traded and lose effectiveness. If you let them keep it until they become ineffective, they lose trade value. Hence the merit of trading him now while his value is highest providing he is replaceable.

JJ deserves a shot, Ray deserves a chance to get his role back Liz should be turned into a late inning guy eventually when he gets passed by the stud prospects coming up. Not to mention Loewen may be looking at that course by the time he gets back from this elbow injury.

[allstar1579]

Oh boy...here we go again. So, we are now the front runners for BOTH Tex and Burnett because they both have connections here? :eektf:

Nah, we will be in the running for both because we have desperate need for them and money to spend.

[TyCobb]

I think AM should make a direction and go at it 100%.

Don't just sign Tex. Sign Tex, Dunn, AND Sheets.

I would perfer we go really young. Trading Roberts, Cabrera, Sherrill, Bradford, Walker, Ramon, Huff, and Millar.

[TGO]

I'd be interested to know where you got that info. I have the opposite understanding.

I was going off of what I recalled from the J.D. Drew situation. The Dodgers got no picks for Drew. I can find no news stories about the Dodgers declining arbitration, and they would not logically have done so. That would have been incredibly stupid and I think I would have remembered such a bout of idiocy.

But I also looked into the ARod situation and apparently the Yankees did have the opportunity to offer arbitration. So I don't really know what to make of this.

EDIT: This apparently is controlled by the terms of the contract itself. Drew's contract apparently stated that arbitration could not be offered if he opted out. ARod's said that it could be offered.

[Dipper9]

I think AM should make a direction and go at it 100%.

Don't just sign Tex. Sign Tex, Dunn, AND Sheets.

I would perfer we go really young. Trading Roberts, Cabrera, Sherrill, Bradford, Walker, Ramon, Huff, and Millar.

Why stop there?

I say in addition to Tex, Dunn, and Sheets, what about Sabathia, Furcal, Burnett, and Manny?

2b: Roberts
RF: Kakes
1B: Tex
LF: Manny
DH: Dunn
3B: Huff
C: Wieters
CF: Jones
SS: Furcal

Bench: Scott, Mora, Millar, backup c

Rotation:

Sheets
Sabathia
Burnett
Guthrie
Cabrera

[TyCobb]

Why stop there?

I say in addition to Tex, Dunn, and Sheets, what about Sabathia, Furcal, Burnett, and Manny?

2b: Roberts
RF: Kakes
1B: Tex
LF: Manny
DH: Dunn
3B: Huff
C: Wieters
CF: Jones
SS: Furcal

Bench: Scott, Mora, Millar, backup c

Rotation:

Sheets
Sabathia
Burnett
Guthrie
Cabrera

I think realistically we could sign Dunn, Tex, and Sheets. But Furcal is good. I think we should sign him too.

[Fan4Life]

I think realistically we could sign Dunn, Tex, and Sheets. But Furcal is good. I think we should sign him too.

How much do you think we could stomach salary wise as a team? $120m?

[allstar1579]

Or instead of blowing all of our money on the best of what is out there this year...we could wait and sign Halladay after the next season, or Berkman, or a host of other guys that are free agents...including DCab.

[TyCobb]

How much do you think we could stomach salary wise as a team? $120m?

I think money has never been an issue. I could see 140.

[Sports Guy]

Those of you thinking AM is going to break the bank for FA are living in fantasyland.

He just isn't going to do it...Its not how he rolls.

[bluehens45]

Tony you are exactly right. If we just sign Tex we are not going to compete but what if we made a run at Dunn as well? We would have a hell of a lineup.It would compete with the Rays, and Sox. Add in a starting pitcher like Burnett and maybe a Dempster and things are even better. If Burnett doesnt cost much im all for trading for him. Trade Huff for Wood, and Ramon for McPherson and this team is looking really really strong. Im one who is all for a TOTAL rebuild. I mean selling off everything of value besides Jones, and Kakes, but if that isnt going to happen then lets not just sign Tex and muddle around 85 wins until everyone is over the hill and were back whre we started. Lets go if it and sign Dunn and a #2-3 starter and compete. It could be a very nice mix of young players, players in their prime and vets. You dump/Trade Millar, Payton, Walker, Bradford, Ramon and possibly Mora and Huff for infield and minor prospects. We could also trade one of our young stud pitchers for some infield prospects. How about this lineup? Thats a lineup we could be proud of and would love to see.

2B - Roberts
RF - Markakis
1B - Teixeira
DH - Dunn
C - Wieters
SS - Wood
LF - Scott/Reimold
CF- Jones
3B - McPherson/Laroche or Rowell/Snyder

#1 Burnett
#2 Guts
#3 DCab
#4 Dempster/Olson/Burress
#5 Olson/Berg/Burress/Patton



This is where I disagree with you. The Orioles don't need to blow it up? We have parts to a contending team and I believe if we add two bats and the starting pitching develops we will be in decent shape by 2010-2011.

The guys we have to trade are not going to bring premium prospects back that we can build around and even if we do get some pieces, there's no guarantees they'll hit well in the majors.

That's why I like MacPhail's philosophy of drafting and developing pitchers and then trade for or sign established bats.

You can't tell me if we added Tex and Dunn this off-season that we would not be contender by at least 2010 if not 2009. What if we added Burnett as well?

Now that's a lot of salary to take on, and I don't think the O's will be able to do this, but I don't see how you can say we are so far away that we need to blow it up.

I've never subscribed to the theory that Roberts needs to be traded because I think he's going to be a player that ages very well and will be a top leadoff guy for at least five more years.

Tex would take care of the hole at first, Dunn would take care of the hole at DH, and Huff could move to third base.

Would I prefer a younger third base option, sure. So I'm not against moving Huff for a young third base prospect. I'm not against moving Sherrill if we can get the right return either, but I also think he can be a valuable member of a contending bullpen, even if it's not at closer.

I don't think it's an either or situation.

The O's are rebuilding, but if young impact bats become available the Orioles would be foolish to not try and sign or trade for them in my opinion.

I've said this before, but if the Orioles look like this in 2010, we're a contender:

2B - Roberts
RF - Markakis
1B - Teixeira
DH - Dunn
C- Wieters
LF - Scott/Reimold
CF- Jones
3B - Hopefully a young third base prospect acquired through a trade or Snyder/Rowell develops
SS - Hoepfully a young SS but a good glove decent stick guy would be fine.

Rotation:
Guthrie
Matusz
Tillman
and the best of Olson/Liz/Spoone/Bergesen/Hernandez/Penn/Patton/Arrieta

And that's without adding Burnett...

I don't think we're as far as some think...

[Fan4Life]

I think money has never been an issue. I could see 140.

We appear to be at roughly $67M. Going to be shedding some $$$ over the offseason via trades and some guys not coming back. If all goes the way we expect, Hernendez, Walker, Bradford etc will all be traded and guys like Payton are done here. This will put us around $50M before any salary increases. Assuming we extend BRob, Markakais, with arbitration we could be back up to $70M before we sign anyone. But, that's a lot of room...

Teix $22M
Sheets or Sabathia $18-22M

roughly $44M added via FA. This has some posters vomitting as we speak... but, that would put us around $115M with room to add someone else? :)

[Tony-OH]

But Burnett can opt out after this year...What are you giving up for a rental?

Do you really believe Burnett is going to opt out of a $24 million over the next two years coming off two injury filled season followed by his subpar year this year?

[Sports Guy]

Do you really believe Burnett is going to opt out of a $24 million over the next two years coming off two injury filled season followed by his subpar year this year?

It wouldn't shock me if some team was willing to put more guaranteed money on the table for him.

[Tony-OH]

It wouldn't shock me if some team was willing to put more guaranteed money on the table for him.

I don't know, I don't think he's going to find a ton of takers for more than that. Crazier things have happened, but the bloom is off the rose a bot with Burnett.

I think he would recover well here in Baltimore though.

A Rotation of Burnett, Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, and Cabrera/Olson/Patton/Spoone/Bergesen/Arrieta/Hernanadez in 2010 looks pretty decent to me...

[caljr]

And lastly, no i don't think that will make us a contender because I don't think Dunn is going to age well

Why do you not think Dunn will age well? He will be moving from the outfield to DH. I would think that this would help in the aging process. Plus, he is only 28 years old. Unless he is going to get a 6 or 7 year contract, I think he will be okay. How DHs have you known to break down in their early 30s? I know a lot of people don't like him because he strikes out a lot, but he does a really good job of getting on base and hitting for power. I think he should be a target this offseason regardless if we get Tex or not. This would good go a long way in solidifying our offense for the next several years. I could see a scenario where our offense could really develop a reputation of wearing out starting pitching because of our ability to work the count and draw walks with Markakis, Dunn, and Wieters in the middle of the lineup

[Hank Scorpio]

This is one of the best discussions I've seen in a long time around here...

[TyCobb]

Those of you thinking AM is going to break the bank for FA are living in fantasyland.

He just isn't going to do it...Its not how he rolls.

Is that the same fantasy land of 3-5 way trades?

[Tony-OH]

We appear to be at roughly $67M. Going to be shedding some $$$ over the offseason via trades and some guys not coming back. If all goes the way we expect, Hernendez, Walker, Bradford etc will all be traded and guys like Payton are done here. This will put us around $50M before any salary increases. Assuming we extend BRob, Markakais, with arbitration we could be back up to $70M before we sign anyone. But, that's a lot of room...

Teix $22M
Sheets or Sabathia $18-22M

roughly $44M added via FA. This has some posters vomitting as we speak... but, that would put us around $115M with room to add someone else? :)

One thing is for certain, the Orioles have money now and they are going to be willing to spend it on the right pieces. I'm not sure they will get into the huge starting pitching market because of so many good arms in the system, but I so think we are going to go out and get bats and our payroll is going to increase significantly in the next year or so.

[TyCobb]

I don't know, I don't think he's going to find a ton of takers for more than that. Crazier things have happened, but the bloom is off the rose a bot with Burnett.

I think he would recover well here in Baltimore though.

A Rotation of Burnett, Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, and Cabrera/Olson/Patton/Spoone/Bergesen/Arrieta/Hernanadez in 2010 looks pretty decent to me...

We shouldn't forget his wife is from the area. That's maybe something to keep him from opting out.

[Tony-OH]

Those of you thinking AM is going to break the bank for FA are living in fantasyland.

He just isn't going to do it...Its not how he rolls.

Why do you keep saying that? When MacPhail was on Chicago he made several high price FA signings.

The Orioles have money and have been way under budget for salaries the last few seasons.

I'm not saying the Orioles are just going to throw stupid money around, but don't be so sure that MacPhail won't bring in some of the right guys with the money he has to spend.

[Sports Guy]

Is that the same fantasy land of 3-5 way trades?

Nope...Those trades are even more realistic than thinking AM is going to bring in 3-5 high profile FAs, thus spending around 250-300 million in guaranteed dollars.

[Sports Guy]

Why do you keep saying that? When MacPhail was on Chicago he made several high price FA signings.

The Orioles have money and have been way under budget for salaries the last few seasons.

I'm not saying the Orioles are just going to throw stupid money around, but don't be so sure that MacPhail won't bring in some of the right guys with the money he has to spend.

Who?

Dave has also said that AM stayed away from big money FAs for the most part...he spent the money to keep his own.

[PaulFolk]

Trading for Burnett, with his opt-out clause, seems like a lose-lose situation to me. If he does great for the rest of the season, he'll opt out and take a big FA deal elsewhere, which doesn't help us. If he stinks, he'll choose to stay and we'll have a lousy pitcher on our hands for two more years.

[Sports Guy]

I don't know, I don't think he's going to find a ton of takers for more than that. Crazier things have happened, but the bloom is off the rose a bot with Burnett.

I think he would recover well here in Baltimore though.

A Rotation of Burnett, Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, and Cabrera/Olson/Patton/Spoone/Bergesen/Arrieta/Hernanadez in 2010 looks pretty decent to me...
Meche got 5/55....I have little doubt that some team may be willing to give AJ a 3 year deal for 35-40 million.

[JTrea81]

Does this plan remind anybody else of what the Cubs have done the last two years?

LF Soriano - FA
2B DeRosa - FA
3B Ramirez - trade
1B Lee - trade
SS Theriot - homegrown
CF Fukudome - FA
RF Edmonds - trade
C Soto - homegrown

Bench

Cedeno - homegrown
Ward - FA
Fontenot - trade
Blanco - FA
Johnson - waiver claim

Rotation:

Zambrano - homegrown
Harden - trade
Lilly - FA
Dempster - FA
Marquis - FA

Bullpen:
Lieber - FA
Wuertz - homegrown
Howry - FA
Cotts - trade
Marmol - homegrown
Wood - homegrown

[Dipper9]

Who?

Dave has also said that AM stayed away from big money FAs for the most part...he spent the money to keep his own.

Was MacPhail still there when Soriano was brought in? He seems like a fairly high priced free agent to me.

[RZNJ]

Carlos Silva got 4/48 this past year. Now, I know that Silva has been more durable than Burnett, but Burnett is easily seen as the better pitcher, IMO, and despite durability concernes Burnett has started at least 19 games a year afor the last 5 years. Add in the fact, that he looks like he might put in a full season this year, and I would be surprised if he didn't opt out. Anyway, you certainly couldn't trade anything of value for him, hoping he wouldn't opt out.

[JTrea81]

Was MacPhail still there when Soriano was brought in? He seems like a fairly high priced free agent to me.

That was all Hendry. MacPhail left before the offseason in 2006.

[RZNJ]

Was MacPhail still there when Soriano was brought in? He seems like a fairly high priced free agent to me.

I don't think so. DaveArm has made a point of saying that AM didn't like to make the big FA splash and it only happened after he left and Hendry had greater autonomy. Of course, if Angelos suggests it, AM might be more likley to break the bank for Tex.

[ChaosLex]

I agree that it does make the O's a better team, but not at the level to compete with the Red Sox, Rays, and reloaded Yankees (after failing to make the playoffs).

It depends really.

If MacPhail continues to make trades (and non-trades) like he did this past offseason, I think the O's will be able to stand with the best of 'em.

If MacPhail stands pat; however, I think the O's are doomed.

[TyCobb]

I don't think so. DaveArm has made a point of saying that AM didn't like to make the big FA splash and it only happened after he left and Hendry had greater autonomy. Of course, if Angelos suggests it, AM might be more likley to break the bank for Tex.

There is no doubt they will break the bank for Tex. I just want to see what else AM has up in his head.

[bluehens45]

Here is a name of a pitcher who could be had very cheap is only 27 and could really really benefit from a change of scenery and has asked for a trade. Brett Myers. I know he has been terrible lately and is supposed to have a bad attitude but could def benefit from a change. Maybe something like Bradford/Walker could get it done. It clears up alot of money for the Phils to resign Howard or go after a CC or Sheets. Maybe we could even expand a trade to include DCab and get back a Cardenas or Carrasco and Donald. His value is at an all-time low and he was 12-7 in 2006 and had 21 saves last year. I think all the movement from the pen to starter has really hurt him. He is a guy who could really benefit from a quality club house like ours as well. I personally would love a move like this. Hell trade for Myers and Burnett both would be cheap and could really help us.

[YardBirds13]

Lots of great discussion in this thread. Definitely one of the better ones we've had on here in a while.

Now I think we all know for a fact we are going to be throwing big bucks at Tex. The question is, will MacPhail also throw big bucks to another bat (Dunn?) or maybe a pitcher (Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett?). Or will he deal off the guys some of us think could bring back some nice young pieces (Sherrill, Huff, Cabrera)