Your official 2008 top 30 Prospect list

[Tony-OH]

Ok, this season we are going back to a Top 50 prospects list but we wanted to see your official top 30 list as well (you can do 50 if you like).

You can then match your list up against our eventual list (which will start being announced on October 1st) and see if you agree.

Some questions to ask yourself:
How far does Spoone drop because of the injury?
Do you go with AA success (Bergesen) over stuff and youth (Erbe)?
Where do 2008 draftees like Avery, Hoes, Hudson, Miclat, Zagone,, Joseph, Drake, and Bundy go on the list? Do they go on the list for you?
Arrieta over Tillman or the other way around?
If you don't put David Hernandez in your top 10, will Orioles28 berate you with twenty posts explaining why you are so, so wrong? :D
How high should Henson be ranked this year, and should Adams be ranked higher?

Just some food for thought.... Have fun with this and be ready to vote when we start announcing the players. This year we are going to go 1-30 instead of counting down to number one from ten and then up from 11 since it's pretty obvious who the number one prospect will be this year.

But who will be number two? Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, or mystery prospect?

[Sailor Jerry]

But who will be number two?

Richie Paz

[bird watcher]

Ok, this season we are going back to a Top 50 prospects list but we wanted to see your official top 30 list as well (you can do 50 if you like).

You can then match your list up against our eventual list (which will start being announced on October 1st) and see if you agree.

Some questions to ask yourself:
How far does Spoone drop because of the injury?
Do you go with AA success (Bergesen) over stuff and youth (Erbe)?
Where do 2008 draftees like Avery, Hoes, Hudson, Miclat, Zagone,, Joseph, Drake, and Bundy go on the list? Do they go on the list for you?
Arrieta over Tillman or the other way around?
If you don't put David Hernandez in your top 10, will Orioles28 berate you with twenty posts explaining why you are so, so wrong? :D
How high should Henson be ranked this year, and should Adams be ranked higher?

Just some food for thought.... Have fun with this and be ready to vote when we start announcing the players. This year we are going to go 1-30 instead of counting down to number one from ten and then up from 11 since it's pretty obvious who the number one prospect will be this year.

But who will be number two? Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, or mystery prospect?

Does Montanez qualify for the list?

Better yet: Can you give us names of any players that no longer qualify due to call ups ie. Liz, Salazar, Mickolio, Montanez, etc.?

[ScottieBaseball]

Another question: How will Ryan Adams' defensive struggles affect his placement in your top prospect list?

[Frobby]

When do you plan to start the OH countdown, Tony?

Personally, I'd like to see what happens in the AFL. In the past, I think OH underrated Adam Loewen (2005 list) and Jake Arrieta (2007 list) because their AFL performances weren't known when the lists were made up. My opinions on Matusz, Reimold and Snyder could vary a good bit depending on what they do in the AFL.

That said, I'd be pretty surprised if the top 11 didn't consist of Wieters, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Reimold, Snyder, Erbe, Bergesen, Hernandez, Britton and Rowell. Not necessarily in that order, but I think there's a pretty firm dividing line between them and the next level. It will be interesting to see which one from that group is "voted off the island," so to speak. Just my opinion, but as promising as Spoone was last year, you can't justify giving a top 10 spot to a guy who pitched sparingly this year and will be coming off labrum surgery. We have no idea what he'll be like when he returns.

[Tony-OH]

When do you plan to start the OH countdown, Tony?

Personally, I'd like to see what happens in the AFL. In the past, I think OH underrated Adam Loewen (2005 list) and Jake Arrieta (2007 list) because their AFL performances weren't known when the lists were made up. My opinions on Matusz, Reimold and Snyder could vary a good bit depending on what they do in the AFL.

That said, I'd be pretty surprised if the top 11 didn't consist of Wieters, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Reimold, Snyder, Erbe, Bergesen, Hernandez, Britton and Rowell. Not necessarily in that order, but I think there's a pretty firm dividing line between them and the next level. It will be interesting to see which one from that group is "voted off the island," so to speak. Just my opinion, but as promising as Spoone was last year, you can't justify giving a top 10 spot to a guy who pitched sparingly this year and will be coming off labrum surgery. We have no idea what he'll be like when he returns.

We'll start announcing the list on October 1st. I know what you are saying about waiting until the AFL and HWL is over, but really our list has always been at the end of the 2008 season which to me ends when their playoffs end. We may do a top 25 or 30 after spring training training next year, but we'll have to see.

The key to the placement of players is what will the players eventually become in the major leagues offset by his potential to reach that ceiling. Spoone has a very high season but due to the injury his likelyhood of reaching that ceiling has diminished a bit or at the very least, been delayed.

I once dropped Bedard down because of TJ surgery and in retrospect I should have kept him higher because of his overall potential.

Ceilings and production to me weigh more on our rankings then anything else but we obviously take into consideration the injury factor.

I've already put together a preliminary list of the top 50 guys and I'm currently going through my investigation into each player before making the final list. Once I make my phone calls, look over all the stats and my own notes taken throughout the year, I'll be ready to make the final list.

It's nice to be able to go 50 deep and still think you may have left off guys with major league ability.

[Sports Guy]

We'll start announcing the list on October 1st. I know what you are saying about waiting until the AFL and HWL is over, but really our list has always been at the end of the 2008 season which to me ends when their playoffs end. We may do a top 25 or 30 after spring training training next year, but we'll have to see.

The key to the placement of players is what will the players eventually become in the major leagues offset by his potential to reach that ceiling. Spoone has a very high season but due to the injury his likelyhood of reaching that ceiling has diminished a bit or at the very least, been delayed.

I once dropped Bedard down because of TJ surgery and in retrospect I should have kept him higher because of his overall potential.

Ceilings and production to me weigh more on our rankings then anything else but we obviously take into consideration the injury factor.

I've already put together a preliminary list of the top 50 guys and I'm currently going through my investigation into each player before making the final list. Once I make my phone calls, look over all the stats and my own notes taken throughout the year, I'll be ready to make the final list.

It's nice to be able to go 50 deep and still think you may have left off guys with major league ability.

Yea...I expect you to have Spoone high since you really like his upside. You won't have him as high as you probably would have but still, i think he will be in the top 12.

[hoosiers]

I'll give it a go. If you want, you can assume guys are listed in order, but I think it's more appropriate to try to group guys of relatively similar prospect status together. I'll admit off the top about a lack of knowledge regarding international signings like Rachenko, Ricardo, Rosa and Polanco (and others) and I do not know exactly which prospects have graduated from this list - I assume Olson, Liz, Montanez have graudated at least.

Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta
Erbe, Rowell, Snyder, Reimold
Bergesen, Britton, Patton
DHernandez, Spoone, Avery, Hoes, Bundy, Berken, Henson
Mickolio, Davis, Angle, Adams, Kolodny, Butler, Miclat, Hudson
Rosa, Bascom, Hoey, Moore

Other names considered - Zagone, Joseph, Dashenko, Polanco, McCrory

Kudos to Joe Jordan and AM. This is easily our best and deepest list that I can recall.

[Greg Pappas]

Tony,

As was requested above: Can we get a list a some of those guys that the Hangout will not consider for the list? Liz, Olson, Montanez, Patton, etc...

Also, what is the criteria for deciding? Is it MLB's rules on rookie status?

Thanks :)

[Frobby]

We'll start announcing the list on October 1st. I know what you are saying about waiting until the AFL and HWL is over, but really our list has always been at the end of the 2008 season which to me ends when their playoffs end. We may do a top 25 or 30 after spring training training next year, but we'll have to see.

The key to the placement of players is what will the players eventually become in the major leagues offset by his potential to reach that ceiling. Spoone has a very high season but due to the injury his likelyhood of reaching that ceiling has diminished a bit or at the very least, been delayed.

I once dropped Bedard down because of TJ surgery and in retrospect I should have kept him higher because of his overall potential.

Ceilings and production to me weigh more on our rankings then anything else but we obviously take into consideration the injury factor.

I've already put together a preliminary list of the top 50 guys and I'm currently going through my investigation into each player before making the final list. Once I make my phone calls, look over all the stats and my own notes taken throughout the year, I'll be ready to make the final list.

It's nice to be able to go 50 deep and still think you may have left off guys with major league ability.

Dont get me wrong - the OH list is probably the highlight of the year on this site, and selfishly I'm glad you start doing it in October instead of waiting for the AFL/HWL.

If I understand your philosophy about injuries correctly, it will be interesting to see where you put Spoone and Patton. I'm betting you still have Spoone at 5 or 6, with Patton right on the fringe of the top 10. But personally, I'd take them both out of the top 10 because labrum injuries are difficult to overcome. I hear what you said about Bedard, but TJ surgery is much easier to overcome than labrum surgery from everything I hear.

I'm glad, and a bit surprised, to hear you think we might more than 50 guys who have major league ability. I'll be happy to stop at 30.

[tywright]

1) Matt Wieters, C (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matt%20Wieters&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=446308)
2) Chris Tillman, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chris%20Tillman&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501957)
3) Brian Matusz, SP
4) Jake Arrieta, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jake%20Arrieta&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453562)
5) Nolan Reimold, OF (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Nolan%20Reimold&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=460099)
6) Brandon Snyder, 1B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Brandon%20Snyder&pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=474319)
7) Brandon Erbe, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Brandon%20Erbe&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476258)
8) Brad Bergesen, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Bradley%20Bergesen&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=448269)
9) David Hernandez, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=David%20Hernandez&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=456696)
10) Zach Britton, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Zachary%20Britton&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502154)
11) Chorye Spoone, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chorye%20Spoone&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=461870)
12) Billy Rowell, 3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Billy%20Rowell&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=475728)
13) Ryan Adams, 2B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Ryan%20Adams&pos=2B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502031)
14) LJ Hoes, 2B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jerome%20Hoes&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543321)
15) Troy Patton, SP
16) Xavier Avery, OF (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Xavier%20Avery&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542897)
17) Tyler Henson, SS/3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Tyler%20Henson&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502335)
18) Luis Noel, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Luis%20Noel&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=503804)
19) Greg Miclat, SS (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Greg%20Miclat&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476582)
20) Tyler Kolodny, 3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Tyler%20Kolodny&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=518899)
21) Tony Butler, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Tony%20Butler&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501977)
22) Garabez Rosa, SS (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Garabez%20Rosa&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=516664)
23) Blake Davis, 2B/SS (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Blake%20Davis&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=488819)
24) Kam Mickolio, RP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Kam%20Mickolio&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501874)
25) Hayden Penn, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Hayden%20Penn&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=435140)
26) Robert Bundy, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Robert%20Bundy&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542989)
27) Pedro Beato, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Pedro%20Beato&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=474039)
28) Rich Zagone, P (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Richard%20Zagone&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543959)
29) Caleb Joseph, C (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Caleb%20Joseph&pos=C&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543376)
30) Justin Moore, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Justin%20Moore&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=519042)
31) Mike Costanzo, 3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Mike%20Costanzo&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453068)
32) Jason Berken, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jason%20Berken&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=460072)
33) Matt Angle, OF (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matthew%20Angle&pos=LF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=518408)
34) Scott Moore, 3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Scott%20Moore&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=445599)
35) Tim Bascom, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Timothy%20Bascom&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502157)

[Frobby]

I'll give it a go. If you want, you can assume guys are listed in order, but I think it's more appropriate to try to group guys of relatively similar prospect status together. I'll admit off the top about a lack of knowledge regarding international signings like Rachenko, Ricardo, Rosa and Polanco (and others) and I do not know exactly which prospects have graduated from this list - I assume Olson, Liz, Montanez have graudated at least.

Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta
Erbe, Rowell, Snyder, Reimold
Bergesen, Britton, Patton
DHernandez, Spoone, Avery, Hoes, Bundy, Berken, Henson
Mickolio, Davis, Angle, Adams, Kolodny, Butler, Miclat, Hudson
Rosa, Bascom, Hoey, Moore

Other names considered - Zagone, Joseph, Dashenko, Polanco, McCrory

Kudos to Joe Jordan and AM. This is easily our best and deepest list that I can recall.

You are not kidding - that's a vastly superior list than last year's, which itself was much better than in previous years. I could nitpick your groupings a little, but they're pretty good.

Noticeably missing - Pedro Beato. Ouch! From top 10 to off the list.

[hoosiers]

You are not kidding - that's a vastly superior list than last year's, which itself was much better than in previous years. I could nitpick your groupings a little, but they're pretty good.

Noticeably missing - Pedro Beato. Ouch! From top 10 to off the list.

The Beato ship has sailed for me. I thought he was an excellent pick, but he has shown very little, IMO.

BTW, the Moore I listed is Justin Moore, HS pitcher from the 2007 draft - not Scott Moore.

[Enjoy Terror]

1) Matt Wieters, C (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matt%20Wieters&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=446308)
2) Chris Tillman, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chris%20Tillman&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501957)
3) Brian Matusz, SP
4) Jake Arrieta, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jake%20Arrieta&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453562)
5) Nolan Reimold, OF (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Nolan%20Reimold&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=460099)
6) Brandon Snyder, 1B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Brandon%20Snyder&pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=474319)
7) Brandon Erbe, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Brandon%20Erbe&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476258)
8) Brad Bergesen, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Bradley%20Bergesen&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=448269)
9) David Hernandez, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=David%20Hernandez&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=456696)
10) Zach Britton, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Zachary%20Britton&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502154)
11) Chorye Spoone, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chorye%20Spoone&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=461870)
12) Billy Rowell, 3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Billy%20Rowell&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=475728)
13) Ryan Adams, 2B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Ryan%20Adams&pos=2B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502031)
14) LJ Hoes, 2B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jerome%20Hoes&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543321)
15) Troy Patton, SP
16) Xavier Avery, OF (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Xavier%20Avery&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542897)
17) Tyler Henson, SS/3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Tyler%20Henson&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502335)
18) Luis Noel, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Luis%20Noel&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=503804)
19) Greg Miclat, SS (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Greg%20Miclat&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476582)
20) Tyler Kolodny, 3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Tyler%20Kolodny&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=518899)
21) Tony Butler, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Tony%20Butler&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501977)
22) Garabez Rosa, SS (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Garabez%20Rosa&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=516664)
23) Blake Davis, 2B/SS (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Blake%20Davis&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=488819)
24) Kam Mickolio, RP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Kam%20Mickolio&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501874)
25) Hayden Penn, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Hayden%20Penn&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=435140)
26) Robert Bundy, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Robert%20Bundy&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542989)
27) Pedro Beato, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Pedro%20Beato&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=474039)
28) Rich Zagone, P (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Richard%20Zagone&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543959)
29) Caleb Joseph, C (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Caleb%20Joseph&pos=C&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543376)
30) Justin Moore, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Justin%20Moore&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=519042)
31) Mike Costanzo, 3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Mike%20Costanzo&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453068)
32) Jason Berken, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jason%20Berken&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=460072)
33) Matt Angle, OF (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matthew%20Angle&pos=LF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=518408)
34) Scott Moore, 3B (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Scott%20Moore&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=445599)
35) Tim Bascom, SP (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Timothy%20Bascom&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502157)

I really like your list a lot. It's very well put together. I think that Scott Moore and Mike Costanzo probably wouldn't make it onto my list, I don't even see them projecting to be great bench players at this point, given their struggles in AAA.

I think you have Berken too low. True that he is the oldest starting pitcher on the Bowie staff, but in all fairness 24 really isn't all that old, if that's the reason you have him ranked so low.

Xavier Avery is too high. I'm not thrilled about his K/BB ratio. To be honest, I'm actually in awe at how Hoes has progressed better than him.

Every time I hear about Billy Rowell, it's something negative; his attitude or his statistics. I don't know that I would rank him as highly as you have.

Of course this all strictly based on opinion, and you are entitled to yours. I'm just observing. :D

[Enjoy Terror]

He's a little old for Delmarva at 23, but I'm a Wally Crancer fan.

[Frobby]

Every time I hear about Billy Rowell, it's something negative; his attitude or his statistics. I don't know that I would rank him as highly as you have.

It seems to me that I've read in several places that Rowell matured a lot as this year progressed. I like what he said in some of the late-season interviews.

I know this point has been made over and over, but Rowell is age 19 playing at Frederick. That is drastically young for that league. If he played there all of 2009 and 2010, he's be the same age Brandon Snyder was this year - and even Snyder is below the median age for the league.

If Rowell posts a sub-.800 OPS in 2009, I'd probably begin to downgrade him. As it is now, he slips a few notches, but not that much.

[Tony-OH]

Tony,

As was requested above: Can we get a list a some of those guys that the Hangout will not consider for the list? Liz, Olson, Montanez, Patton, etc...

Also, what is the criteria for deciding? Is it MLB's rules on rookie status?

Thanks :)

Montanez and Patton will be eligible for the list...

Liz, Olson, and Penn are not eligible.... Neither is Luis Hernandez for his fans. ;)

[Greg Pappas]

Montanez and Patton will be eligible for the list...

Liz, Olson, and Penn are not eligible.... Neither is Luis Hernandez for his fans. ;)

The Luis Hernandez fan-base is monstrous, with untold multitudes standing behind their guy... and at last count, that fan-base had swelled to three. :D

Thanks for the clarification on those players.

[Big Mac]

I really like your list a lot. It's very well put together. I think that Scott Moore and Mike Costanzo probably wouldn't make it onto my list, I don't even see them projecting to be great bench players at this point, given their struggles in AAA.

I think you have Berken too low. True that he is the oldest starting pitcher on the Bowie staff, but in all fairness 24 really isn't all that old, if that's the reason you have him ranked so low.

Xavier Avery is too high. I'm not thrilled about his K/BB ratio. To be honest, I'm actually in awe at how Hoes has progressed better than him.

Every time I hear about Billy Rowell, it's something negative; his attitude or his statistics. I don't know that I would rank him as highly as you have.

Of course this all strictly based on opinion, and you are entitled to yours. I'm just observing. :D

I don't see how you can rank Billy Rowell any lower than #12.

He's #7 on my list, which will be up as soon as it's finished.

[tywright]

I really like your list a lot. It's very well put together. I think that Scott Moore and Mike Costanzo probably wouldn't make it onto my list, I don't even see them projecting to be great bench players at this point, given their struggles in AAA.

You have to remember Norfolk is a tough hitter's park. And I already have them outside my top 30.


I think you have Berken too low. True that he is the oldest starting pitcher on the Bowie staff, but in all fairness 24 really isn't all that old, if that's the reason you have him ranked so low.

Berken is at best a swingman and probably is destined as a career minor leaguer or reliever.


Xavier Avery is too high. I'm not thrilled about his K/BB ratio. To be honest, I'm actually in awe at how Hoes has progressed better than him.

Avery has tons of tools so this is based on upside. His pro debut was better than expected. Hoes is going to be a real gem. He just needs to fill out and get better defensively. His bat will take him far.


Every time I hear about Billy Rowell, it's something negative; his attitude or his statistics. I don't know that I would rank him as highly as you have.

Rowell has tools...you can't take away from him. He'll mature slowly, but he'll always have a place in the O's top prospect list.

[Greg Pappas]

Here's my initial attempt. Ages as of April '09 are in parentheses:

1> #Wieters, Catcher (23) Very likely the #1 overall prospect in baseball, and could be the best catching prospect...ever.

2> *Matusz, LHSP (22) Polished collegian has the makings of a stud starter and should find himself among most top 40 prospects lists.

3> Tillman, RHSP (21) One of the top 10 pitching prospects in the game, and possibly gets a higher ranking than Matusz from most national prognosticators.

4> Arrieta, RHSP (23) Was too good for High A ball. Jake has the makings of a strong #2/3 starter type, or perhaps even a tremendous closer.

5> Erbe, RHSP (21) Showed flashes of brilliance at the same level as Arrieta, while two years his junior. Better arm than Tillman, but hasn't shown the same poise or command... as yet.

6> *Rowell, 3B (20) Great talent in the former first-rounder out of a NJ high school, but the results haven't warranted his lofty ranking. He's been pushed too quickly though, at just 20 years old, so he may just turn the Carolina League on its ear in '09.

7> Reimold, OF, (25) Never been a big fan, although I'm hopeful that I could be wrong about him. Good athlete for a big player (6-4/215) with good power and solid speed.

8> Hernandez, RHSP (23) David just needs to show better command to make the big leap to Baltimore. Great fastball, but hasn't shown the ability to go deep as a starter. I look for him to wind up in the pen.

9> Snyder, 1B/3B (22) The 2005 first-rounder had a good bounce-back year in '08. To me, he profiles similar to Kevin Millar, albeit with a better average. He'll need to develop more power, or he could shoot across the diamond to 3B.

10> *Britton, LHSP (21) Classic young smooth lefty starter. Good command of average to above-average offerings. Smart kid looks like a future big-leaguer.

11> Bergesen, RHSP (23)
12> *Patton, LHSP (23)
13> Spoone, RHSP (23)
14> LJ Hoes, 2B/OF (19)
15> Bundy, RHSP, (19)
16> *Butler, LHSP (21)
17> *Avery, CF, (19)
18> Montanez, OF (27)
19> Henson, SS/2B (21)
20> Adams, 2B (22)
21> Rosa, SS (19)
22> #Miclat, SS (21)
23> *Zagone, LHP (22)
24> Mickolio, RHSP 24)
25> Hoey, RHRP (26)
26> Beato, RHSP (22)
27> Noel, RHSP (21)
28> #Polanco, 1B (22)
29> Berken, RHRP (25)
30> Kolodny, 3B (21)
31> Loewen, 1B (24)

[Frobby]

Montanez and Patton will be eligible for the list...

Liz, Olson, and Penn are not eligible.... Neither is Luis Hernandez for his fans. ;)

Well, if Montanez is eligible, he absolutely has to be somewhere in the top 30, despite his age. I'd probably peg him in the 15-20 range.

[Enjoy Terror]

Should I be alarmed at the lack of relief pitching on these lists? Or does this club aim to turn players like Liz, Olson, Penn, Burress (SPs that can't hack it) into future relievers?

[Frobby]

Here's my initial attempt. Ages as of April '09 are in parentheses:

31> Loewen, 1B (24)

That's very sweet of you.

[tywright]

Here's my initial attempt. Ages as of April '09 are in parentheses:


7> Montanez, OF (25)


He'll be 27 in April 09

[Tony-OH]

1) Wieters
2) Matusz
3) Tillman
4) Reimold
5) Penn
6) Arrieta
7) Rowell
8) Snyder
9) Patton
10) Erbe
11) Hernandez
12) Bergesen
13) Montanez
14) Spoone
15) Britton
16) Berken
17) Avery
18) Hoes
19) Bundy
20) Butler
21) Adams
22) Mickolio
23) S Moore
24) Costanzo
25) Bascom
26) Angle
27) Noel
28) Beato
29) Henson
30) McCrory


Notes

1) I would list prospects by a combination of their overall ceiling, past results, and likely-hood of reaching the Majors…

2) I will have Penn much higher then probably everyone else… just think if you are doing a prospect ranking.. That the guy that is just turning 24, that has dominated previously in AA, and AAA… is basically as good a prospect as any in the system if you believe he is healthy. His start that was on MASN late this summer, confirmed that he had his velocity, and movement back… not a surprise that it took him awhile to find consistency in 2008 after missing the 2nd-half of 2006, and most of 2007.

People will argue about me having Penn ahead of Arrieta… but Arrieta's DOB is 3/6/86, and Penn's is 10/13/84… so Penn is only a year and half older, and has already achieved at AA, and AAA and showed a return of his stuff…. I don't think Arrieta dominating at Frederick, at 18 months younger is enough to rank him ahead of Penn.

3) S.Moore and Costanzo both had rough years at Norfolk… based on their ages, and what they have previously achieved, I believe they deserve a spot in the Top 30 prospects.

4) I would be tempted to totally remove Beato from the Top 30… but I am going to just say 2008 was a wash with his injuries… people raved about his arm previously… just worry about getting him healthy first, and then figure out what you have.

5) Might be too much of a disparity between Reimold and Montanez… Montanez did have the bigger year, but his age difference has to be factored in…

6) Erbe/Hernandez/Bergesen all have arguments for being ranked ahead of each other… I think you have to give Erbe the nod due to his age, but that Hernandez might have the better future…

7) Will be interesting to see what people do with Patton, and Spoone… think they both have to be in the Top 15.

8) Hoes seems more advanced then Avery in plate discipline… which basically limits any athletic/talent difference… I'll still give the nod right now to Avery.

Nice review Chris. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but well though out and what I was looking for in with these lists. Just a reminder though, Penn is not eligible for the list due to not being a rookie any more. Even if he was, he would certainly be outside of my top ten and closer to the 15-18 range. The stuff looked like it was back, but his injury history and the fact he's probably destined for the bullpen lowers his ceiling in my opinion.

[Tony-OH]

Should I be alarmed at the lack of relief pitching on these lists? Or does this club aim to turn players like Liz, Olson, Penn, Burress (SPs that can't hack it) into future relievers?

Trust me, there are a lot more potential relievers on these lists than starters.

[Frobby]

So far:

Hoosiers 16 pitchers, 14 hitters
tywright 16 pitchers, 14 hitters
Gregg Pappas 17 pitchers, 13 hitters
crstoner 18 pitchers, 12 hitters

[Frobby]

People will argue about me having Penn ahead of Arrieta… but Arrieta's DOB is 3/6/86, and Penn's is 10/13/84… so Penn is only a year and half older, and has already achieved at AA, and AAA and showed a return of his stuff…. I don't think Arrieta dominating at Frederick, at 18 months younger is enough to rank him ahead of Penn.


Putting aside Tony's point that Penn technically does not qualify for the list, I think it is worth noting that Arrieta and Penn both pitched in the AFL last winter. Penn was used as a starter and had spotty success. Arrieta was used as a reliever and was untouchable. The fact that Penn has missed time with injuries each of the last three years also hurts his case. At this point I'd have to put Penn below Arrieta, but by no means have I written him off. I just hope he shows up strong and healthy next spring an earns a spot in the bullpen.

[Frobby]

Yeah, and Arrieta was coming off of 2006, and 2007 seasons at TCU where he had pitched 100innings each year… while Penn was coming off a 2006 season where he basically did not pitch in the 2nd half, and a 2007 where he barely pitched at all…

So, my point would be, that even though Penn had the pre-existing professional experience… Arrieta was the one closer to being his normal pitching self last year in the AFL… while Penn was getting used to being back on a mound..

Of course it would be a fair-point in return to say that Penn's injuries have to be accounted for… I guess the injuries he has had don't scare me off at this point.

Like you, ultimately I am just hoping he gets to camp next spring strong and healthy…

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting hard for Penn. I was fortunate to see his major league debut as a 20-year old kid. His future certainly looked golden then. The run of bad luck he's had since then has been nothing short of amazing.

The fact is, though, that Penn's performance at Norfolk last year (5.14 ERA), the AFL last fall (6.45 ERA), and Norfolk this year (4.79 ERA) have all been pretty uninspiring compared to what he did in 2005-06. He has had a few really good performances here and there, but no real consistency.

That said, if I were the O's I'd bend over backwards to find a spot for him unless he is just awful next spring.

[coe76]

I don't think these two guys are in the top 30/50 but does anyone have a sense of what the organization feels about Kraig Binick and Brian Valichka? They seemed to show some flashes last year but I am not sure they are consistent enough. I also wonder about Jedidiah Stephen, who showed a bit of pop with 8 HRs. Kenny Moreland is another who showed well but I think it is probably too early for him to make these lists.

[Sports Guy]

1) Wieters
2) Matusz
3) Tillman
4) Arrieta
5) Reimold
6) Erbe
7) Rowell
8) Britton
9) Synder
10) Bergesen
11) Hernandez
12) Spoone
13) Patton
14) Berken
15) Bundy
16) Butler
17) Hoes
18) Avery
19) Adams
20) Zagone
21) Henson
22) Noel
23) Bascom
24) Beato
25) Moore
26) Constanzo
27) Miclat
28) Hoey
29) Kolodny
30) Rosa


I think 2-4 can be put in any order....I go with Matusz #2 because of his reported good command of all of his pitches...But he hasn't shown it yet, so I have no problem putting Tillman and/or Arrieta ahead of him.

Some of the guys on here I can see Tony putting on that other list he does...The guys that you have to watch but those who didn't get enough time in the minors.

Also, i am not considering Montanez a prospect anymore, so that is why he isn't on my list...If he was, he would be in the 15-20 range.

[GeorgeD]

Nice posts guys. I am enjoying reading them. I don't know enough about these guys to make a Top 30, but I think I would include Oliver Drake somewhere between 25-30. I also don't think I'd have Rowell in the Top 10. Easy for me to say I guess since I didn't actually make a list.

[Greg Pappas]

He'll be 27 in April 09

Just caught that, thanks... :)

[Greg Pappas]

That's very sweet of you.

Hehehe thanks. I felt that he needed to be remembered. :)

[WietersCorner]

1. Wieters
2. Tillman
3. Matusz
4. Arrieta
5. Erbe
6. Rowell
7. Reimold
8. Britton
9. Snyder
10. Hernandez
11. Bergeson
12. Patton
13. Adams
14. Butler
15. Hoes
16. Kolodny
17. Bundy
18. Avery
19. Rosa
20. Henson
21. Miclat
22. Noel
23. Polanco
24. Beato
25. Noel
26. Mickolio
27. J. Moore
28. Zagone
29. Hoey
30. Mahoney

[baseballbarry]

Amazing top 30 Prospects!

Matt Angle-back to back strong seasons; should have broke the top 30.

Tyler Kolodny-only 20 Years Old breaking Ironbird Home Run record + high OPS in strong pitchers league. I like him above Henson at third base.

Justin Moore-he's my dark horse to shoot up the prospect list next season! For a 20 Year Old to dominate the Gulf Coast League is an eye opener. Justin was great pick by Joe Jordan and would have had more wins with a better team and more run support. I'd like to see him have shot in spring training for the 4th or 5th spot in Delmarve's rotation.

[Frobby]

Justin Moore-he's my dark horse to shoot up the prospect list next season! For a 20 Year Old to dominate the Gulf Coast League is an eye opener.

18-year old, you mean. But isn't that mostly what you have in the GCL?

[Tony-OH]

1) Wieters
2) Matusz
3) Tillman
4) Arrieta
5) Reimold
6) Erbe
7) Rowell
8) Britton
9) Synder
10) Bergesen
11) Hernandez
12) Spoone
13) Patton
14) Berken
15) Bundy
16) Butler
17) Hoes
18) Avery
19) Adams
20) Zagone
21) Henson
22) Noel
23) Bascom
24) Beato
25) Moore
26) Constanzo
27) Miclat
28) Hoey
29) Kolodny
30) Rosa


I think 2-4 can be put in any order....I go with Matusz #2 because of his reported good command of all of his pitches...But he hasn't shown it yet, so I have no problem putting Tillman and/or Arrieta ahead of him.

Some of the guys on here I can see Tony putting on that other list he does...The guys that you have to watch but those who didn't get enough time in the minors.

Also, i am not considering Montanez a prospect anymore, so that is why he isn't on my list...If he was, he would be in the 15-20 range.

This year we're going to go 1-50 with some of those kind of guys showing up in the 31-50 range.

Good list though.....

[LookinUp]

My list, FWIW. W/o the injuries, Patton and Spoone could likely be in the top 5 or 6. I'm just too worried about them though.

1. Weiters
2. Matusz
3. Tillman
4. Arietta
5. Snyder
6. Erbe
7. Montanez
8. Reimold
9. Hernandez
10. Rowell
11. Britton
12. Bergesen
13. Hoes
14. Patton
15. Spoone
16. Bundy
17. Miclat
18. Adams
19. Butler
20. Zagone
21. Rosa
22. Kolodny
23. Polanco
24. Henson
25. Avery
26. Berken
27. Noel
28. Bascom
29. Davis
30. Angle

Not listed: McCrory, Doyne, Mickolio, Hoey, Beato, Loewen, S. Moore, Costanzo, Drake, Crancer, J. Moore, Mahoney, Mattalino, and likely others.

[hoosiers]

I know he was injured, but Hudson was drafted ahead of Miclat, Zagone and Joseph on merit. He's really getting disrespected relative to these and other 08 draft picks, IMO.

[LookinUp]

I know he was injured, but Hudson was drafted ahead of Miclat, Zagone and Joseph on merit. He's really getting disrespected relative to these and other 08 draft picks, IMO.

You're probably right, but he's not on our radar unfortunately. Hopefully Tony's not prone to such oversights. ;)

[Three Run Homer]

I know he was injured, but Hudson was drafted ahead of Miclat, Zagone and Joseph on merit. He's really getting disrespected relative to these and other 08 draft picks, IMO.

A lot of us folks disrespected him on draft day, too...;)

[Three Run Homer]

1. Wieters
2. Matusz
3. Tillman
4. Arietta

5. Erbe
6. Hernandez
7. Hoes
8. Reimold
9. Britton
10. Rowell

11. Snyder
12. Bergesen
13. Patton
14. Spoone
15. Kolodny
16. Miclat
17. Bundy
18. Butler
19. Avery
20. Adams

21. Rosa
22. Montanez
23. Berken
24. Zagone
25. Mickolio
26. Hoey
27. Wilfredo Perez
28. Noel
29. Angle
30. Oh, all right...Hudson

I'm sure I've ranked Hoes higher than anyone else, but I do think the O's have a gem here. He walks about twice as often as he strikes out, and he was 10-for-10 as a base stealer. To me those are indications that he is off the charts in terms of baseball intelligence--I've never seen an O's prospect with those kind of numbers, even in the GCL. Plus he hit .300 with some pop, so he's got plenty of tools. Defense is the only question mark, but he might hit enough to make it on his bat alone.

I admit that I don't have much of a feel for rankings beyond the top 20. I could rearrange 21-30 in pretty much any order and still be satisfied.

[Eight]

I'm sure I've ranked Hoes higher than anyone else, but I do think the O's have a gem here. He walks about twice as often as he strikes out, and he was 10-for-10 as a base stealer. To me those are indications that he is off the charts in terms of baseball intelligence--I've never seen an O's prospect with those kind of numbers, even in the GCL. Plus he hit .300 with some pop, so he's got plenty of tools. Defense is the only question mark, but he might hit enough to make it on his bat alone.



Good post. I'm not sure I'd have him that high, but I too like Hoes a lot. There's a place for him in the top 10, and I certainly would not call a rating of #7 unreasonable. Maybe he doesn't have the upside that other guys have, but I'm excited to see a guy that seems to have a wide range of skills at such a young age - intelligence is a good way to describe it, I think.

I'm surprised that Berken is so much lower on so many lists than Bergesen. Now I know that Berken is almost two years older, but. . .

Berken: (12-4, 3.58 in 145.2 IP; 7.72 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9)
Bergesen: (15-6, 3.22 in 148 IP; 4.38 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9)

That gap in age is probably the big advantage, on paper, for Bergesen, but the miniscule amount of K's swings it to Berken in a big way (although his rate isn't that stellar). I don't see either of them being much in the big leagues, unfortunately, but I like Berken more.

[Flosman]

I really do not know enough to get knowledgably through about the top 8 or so and even then the placement between those guys is sketchy for me. But I do see alot more guys that have a real chance in helping in the future than I am used to seeing in the O's farm system.

[Frobby]

I like Hoes, but as a matter of philosophy I'm not putting any 18-year old kid who has played only in the GCL in my top 10, unless he absolutely destroys the league. Put it this way - look at what Snyder and Rowell did at Bluefield, which is a higher league than the GCL, at the same age (in Rowell's case, he was actually a year younger).

There was a time when the OH top-10 list had several high school kids who had just been drafted in the top 10, because there just weren't many good prospects at the upper levels. That's no longer the case.

[slappy12]

Here's my first list.

1) Weiters
2) Tillman
3) Arrieta
4) Matusz
5) Reimold
6) Erbe
7) Hernandez
8) Britton
9) Montanez
10)Snyder
11)Rowell
12)Spoone
13)Bergesen
14)Patton
15)Hoes
16)Bundy
17)Berken
18)Butler
19)Mickolio
20)Noel
21)Avery
22)Miclat
23)Adams
24)Henson
25)Zagone
26)Rosa
27)Davis
28)Angle
29)Hoey
30)Kolodny

I had Matusz 4th because he hasn't face professional hitters yet, so I gave the edge to Tillman and Arrieta. Spoone was down because to his injury(which looks like it's serious). Hoes could be higher, but I really like him and what he brings to the table.

[Greg Pappas]

Here's my first list.

1) Weiters
2) Tillman
3) Arrieta
4) Matusz
5) Reimold
6) Erbe
7) Hernandez
8) Britton
9) Montanez
10)Snyder
11)Rowell
12)Spoone
13)Bergesen
14)Patton
15)Hoes
16)Bundy
17)Berken
18)Butler
19)Mickolio
20)Noel
21)Avery
22)Miclat
23)Adams
24)Henson
25)Zagone
26)Rosa
27)Davis
28)Angle
29)Hoey
30)Kolodny

I had Matusz 4th because he hasn't face professional hitters yet, so I gave the edge to Tillman and Arrieta. Spoone was down because to his injury(which looks like it's serious). Hoes could be high but I really like him and what he brings to the table.

Welcome to the Hangout. That seems to be a pretty solid list. I look forward to reading more of your posts in the future.

[orioole28]

OK, OK, I know everybody is waiting for my "Top 30" list!!:D:rolleyes:;)

1) Weiters - No big surprise here
2) Tillman - Had a very good year in "AA" and only 20 year old
3) Arrieta - Dominated "Hi A" and would of been nice to see him in "AA"
4) Matusz - Again dominated college bats, now lets see want in can do in the AFL
5) Reimold - Had and outstanding year in Bowie, needs to be little more consistent, but put up very good numbers.
6) Erbe - Also needs to be more consistent, but has outstanding stuff.
7) Hernandez - Once again leads league in strikouts and 3rd in ERA, problem command and when he finds it - watch out!!
8) Rowell - This might be high for some, but there is some untapped potential thats still might come out.
9) Britton - I believe the best left handed SP in our system as of now.
10)Snyder - Showed his potential last half of season, still lacks power.
11)Bergesen - Came on like gangbuster!! Had a great season in Bowie, now the problem is that he doesn't miss bats & LH hitters.
12)Spoone - Injury slowed him big time, now it's recover time
13)Berken - Had a very good season at Bowie, injury and illness probably set him back from having a outstanding season
14)Patton - Injury slowed him this year, anxious to see what he can bring to the table
15)Hoes - Really love this guy, great eye at the plate, could be a keeper.

16)Miclat
17)Noel
18)Bundy
19)Avery
20)Adams
21)Mickolio
22)Butler
23)Henson
24)Davis
25)Zagone
26)Rosa
27)Hoey
28)Kolodny
29)Angle
30)Bascom

[blazer]

1. Wieters
2. Tillman
3. Matusz
4. Arrieta
5. Erbe
6. Hernandez
7. Reimold
8. Snyder
9. Britton
10. Spoone
11. Patton
12. Hoes
13. Bergesen
14. Rowell
15. Montanez
16. Adams
17. Zagone
18. Mickolio
19. Kalodney
20. Berken
21. Angle
22. Rosa
23. Bundy
24. Butler
25. Noel
26. Perez
27. Avery
28. Gleason
29. J. Moore
30. Beato
Next 10 (alphabetical order): Henson, Hoey, Hudson, McCrory, Miclat, Moore, Polanco, Thall, Tripp, Vinyard.

[Big Mac]

1. Wieters
2. Tillman
3. Matusz
4. Arrieta
5. Erbe
6. Hernandez
7. Reimold
8. Snyder
9. Britton
10. Spoone
11. Patton
12. Hoes13. Bergesen
14. Rowell
15. Montanez
16. Adams
17. Zagone
18. Mickolio
19. Kalodney
20. Berken
21. Angle
22. Rosa
23. Bundy
24. Butler
25. Noel
26. Perez
27. Avery
28. Gleason
29. J. Moore
30. Beato
Next 10 (alphabetical order): Henson, Hoey, Hudson, McCrory, Miclat, Moore, Polanco, Thall, Tripp, Vinyard.

Not to nitpick, because this is your list, but how do you have Rowell that low and behind Hoes. Rowell is 1 year older than Hoes and played 4 levels higher than him this season.

Again, it's your list, I'm just wondering what your reasoning behind that ranking is.

[rhall]

FYI, just because I waited so long to post my list doesn't mean I put a ton of research into it. There's still more intuition than cold hard facts in here, especially as you go further down the list, but I think this is where these guys fit for the most part. Ok here goes...

1. Matt Wieters
2. Brian Matusz - based on a higher upside than...
3. Chris Tillman
4. Nolan Reimold - his stock has only risen, has answered questions about health and strikeouts
5. Jake Arrieta
6. Brandon Erbe - more consistent than last year but still not enough. Still flashes dominance
7. Brandon Snyder - we may have seen the real Snyder in the second half and if he can make the switch to 3B, this ranking is realistic IMO
8. Lou Montanez - the guy can hit, and he's still young enough to have a career
9. Billy Rowell - he's young for his level, but he has to produce next year or he starts sliding down these lists fast.
10. David Hernandez - great year, but the "critics" who say reliever didn't get any quieter - main reason he's this low.
11. Zach Britton
12. Brad Bergesen
13. Chorye Spoone
14. Xavier Avery - based mostly on potential - may be a little high
15. Troy Patton - reports on comeback are good. I'm anxious to see what he can do.
16. L.J. Hoes - great start
17. Ryan Adams - if he played an average 2B, he'd be 5-10 spots higher
18. Tony Butler - I worry about his ability to stay on the mound, but I like his potential.
19. Matthew Angle
20. Tyler Kolodny - who doesn't like a gamer
21. Greg Miclat - I like his tools, but his shoulder's gotta let him stay at SS.
22. Jason Berken - typing this out, Berken may be someone I'd move up a little, but it's too late now... I'm not redoing this :D
23. Robert Bundy - all reports are that he's the real deal, but he's hardly played yet, so here he is.
24. Kam Mickolio - last year a dominant reliever like him would have been 10 spots higher
25. Tim Bascom - I'm a big fan and thought he would have been on Arrieta's heals coming into the season. Injuries thought otherwise.
26. Garabez Rosa
27. Pedro Beato - I'll give him one more shot... I say as I move him almost out of the top 30 :p
28. Jim Miller - does anyone else give him credit for a great year?
29. Bob McCrory - more potential than Miller, but not as likely to reach it.
30. Richard Zagone - a reliever in the bigs, but a great start in the NYPL.
31. Tyler Henson
32. Mike Costanzo - improved as the year went along, but wow he's not close to ready yet - still got good power
33. Luis Noel - good arm but needs doesn't K enough to get away with BBs and fly-ball tendencies
34. Elvin Polanco
35. Blake Davis
36. Scott Moore - big missed opportunity this year, 2009 could be last shot.
37. Kyle Hudson - has the tools to be another Angle, only faster, but he doesn't have the "instincts" yet.
38. Caleb Joseph - some potential, hopefully he puts on more muscle training this winter
39. Kraig Binick
40. Sean Gleason - under the radar and just kept winning.
41. Wilfredo Perez - doesn't look the part, but has been dominant the last 2 years.
42. Mick Mattaliano - Bradford version 2.0
43. Justin Moore - I've been watching him since the draft, nice power arm, we'll see how his secondary stuff progresses.
44. Oliver Drake - great find in the back of the draft
45. Cole McCurry - I don't really believe in him, but he did have a good year.
46. Jose Barajas - someone in-house liked him enough to promote him all the way to Frederick in his first season
47. Chad Thall - could be a solid LOOGY - going to the AFL
48. John Mariotti - good sinker baller, bad groin injury in 2008 - ouch! :eek:
49. Brandon Tripp - will the real Brandon please stand up? I think we saw him this year.
50. Nathan Nery - great run to close the season - BA gave him props in their Organizational Review (http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/organization-reports/baltimore-orioles/2008/266896.html).

Some other names that I will be watching next year, in no particular order:
Ronnie Welty-OF, Jim Hoey-RP (actually should have been in the list above), Patrick Kantakevich-RP, Brian Parker-RP, Rodolfo Cardona-SS, Corey Thomas-3B, Sam Taveras-SP, Luis Ramirez-OF, Wally Crancer-OF/C, Kenny Moreland-SP and I guess Dashenko Ricardo-C who was supposed to be a sleeper in 2008.

[LookinUp]

We are all putting Erbe too high on these lists IMO. He's generally going 5 or 6. However, I think that Reimold, Snyder and Hernandez should all be above him for now. It's also debatable whether Bergesen or Montanez should be ahead of him.

I don't want to over state this, but until he shows some consistency I think he better fits at about 8, not 5 or 6. He could shoot up the list next year, but he hasn't earned it yet. I'm just sayin...

[rhall]

We are all putting Erbe too high on these lists IMO. He's generally going 5 or 6. However, I think that Reimold, Snyder and Hernandez should all be above him for now. It's also debatable whether Bergesen or Montanez should be ahead of him.

I don't want to over state this, but until he shows some consistency I think he better fits at about 8, not 5 or 6. He could shoot up the list next year, but he hasn't earned it yet. I'm just sayin...

I disagree. Last season Erbe was ranked #5 here at the OH, and #10 at BA. This season he performed much better than last year while still being one of the younger pitchers in the league and he still has the same upside. Many of the BA chats this summer refered to Erbe as one of the best O's prospects and one of the writers over there flat-out said that he likes Erbe better than Arrieta. He admitted that he's probably in the minority in that opinion, and I don't think anyone here at the OH is saying they like Erbe above Arrieta, but it goes to show that Erbe is still highly thought of and it's not out of the question to place him 5th or 6th in our rankings. You'll see that I agree with you in putting Reimold above Erbe and at one time I had Snyder above him, before Erbe starting climbing up my rankings. Hernandez I don't agree on, since there are just as many questions surrounding his future (starter or reliever), Erbe is younger and has the higher upside, too.

If you disagree, that's fine, though. That's what these prospect rankings are for... to state your opinion on the players.

[LookinUp]

Ok, so you agree that Reimold is higher but not Snyder or Hernandez. For the record, Snyder is also very young and played in the same league. Obviously they played different positions, but I'd say that Snyder played better. Hernandez isn't exactly an old guy either.

I do understand that a young potential SP is more valuable than a young potential 1b with average power (for now) and a tweener SP/RP. I'd note that a lot of people already think Erbe is a tweener just like Hernandez.

I just put a lot of stock into what these guys actually do on the field and I think the Orioles should too. I don't want to be fooled by another toolsy player who's not actually producing.

[Tony-OH]

I will give you guys one little thing to discuss. There is one player on these lists that most of you will be upset at where he ends up falling on our list. He'll be this year's Hernandez or Fiorentino. The guy everyone thinks is a top ten guy and we have him a bit lower.

By the way, the first four on the list for me are no-brainers (although you can probably make a case to move anyone from 2 through 4), the real discussion will be from 5 on down...

[Ruzious]

I will give you guys one little thing to discuss. There is one player on these lists that most of you will be upset at where he ends up falling on our list. He'll be this year's Hernandez or Fiorentino. The guy everyone thinks is a top ten guy and we have him a bit lower.

Intrusting. If it's Snyder, I'll respectfully disagree. It it's Rowell, I'll respectfully agee.

[LookinUp]

Intrusting. If it's Snyder, I'll respectfully disagree. It it's Rowell, I'll respectfully agee.

If it's Reimold, that'll be interesting but believable based on your (Tony's) posts earlier in the season.

[JayGibbons31]

1. Matt Wieters
2. Brian Matusz
3. Chris Tillman
4. Jake Arrietta
5. Nolan Reimold
6. Brandon Erbe
7. Brandon Snyder
8. David Hernandez
9. Brad Bergesen
10. Bill Rowell
11. Zach Britton
12. Troy Patton
13. Chorye Spoone
14. Lou Montanez (Assuming he doesn't exceed 130 AB's)
15. Jason Berken
16. Tyler Henson
17. L.J. Hoes
18. Bobby Bundy
19. Ryan Adams
20. Kam Mickolio
21. Greg Miclat
22. Luis Noel
23. Xavier Avery
24. Kyle Hudson
25. Garabez Rosa
26. Tony Butler
27. Tyler Kolodny
28. Matt Angle
29. James Hoey
30. Oliver Drake

[GeorgeD]

Intrusting. If it's Snyder, I'll respectfully disagree. It it's Rowell, I'll respectfully agee.

Me too. My guess is Rowell being down farther than many expect. I would go along with that.

[wickedwitch]

1) Wieters

2) Tillman, if just because of age
3) Matusz -so very close to 2nd
4) Arrieta

5) Erbe - I generally go for the guys who are more of sure things, but his potential is so high
6) Hernandez - if he can't cu down on walks, his good stuff won't matter, so he may be the biggest risk of the top 10
7) Snyder - on the assumption he can play 3rd
8) Reimold
9) Montanez - At 95 AB, the sample size isn't that small, and he's played very well the entire time.
10) Bergesen
11) Rowell
12) Britton
13) Spoone
14) Pattton

I haven't seen enough of most of the other players to do a fair assessment.

The 4:9 ratio of position players to pitchers doesn't make me comfortable. But one is nearly a sure thing, to go along with our two young, kickass outfielders in ML, so we're more stable in that area. In pitching, it's a lot more iffy, although we have the potential to have a fantastic staff in two or three seasons.

Regardless, this year's top 10 or 20 or 30 is much stronger than last year's.

I don't see the point of getting upset about prospect rankings. Even the most thoroughly researched ones make mistakes a good percentage of the time.

[Big Mac]

I will give you guys one little thing to discuss. There is one player on these lists that most of you will be upset at where he ends up falling on our list. He'll be this year's Hernandez or Fiorentino. The guy everyone thinks is a top ten guy and we have him a bit lower.

By the way, the first four on the list for me are no-brainers (although you can probably make a case to move anyone from 2 through 4), the real discussion will be from 5 on down...

My guess is Bergesen.

[Stotle]

I'm doing a more in-depth look at this, but figured I'd toss in my preliminary list (this will likely be shuffled around a bit over the next two weeks):

Top 30:
1. Matt Wieters
2. Brian Matusz
3. Chris Tillman
4. Jake Arrieta
5. Nolan Reimold
6. Brandon Erbe
7. Brandon Snyder
8. Chorye Spoone
9. Billy Rowell
10. David Hernandez
11. LJ Hoes
12. Troy Patton
13. Bobby Bundy
14. Xavier Avery
15. Brad Bergesen
16. Greg Miclat
17. Kam Mickolio
18. Zach Britton
19. Bob McCrory
20. James Hoey
21. Jason Berken
22. Tony Butler
23. Ryan Adams
24. Rick Zagone
25. Matt Angle
26. Luis Montanez
27. Randor Bierd
28. Tyler Henson
29. Garabez Rosa
30. Mike Costanzo

Considered (in no order):
Kyle Hudson
Caleb Joseph
Tim Bascom
Tyler Kolodny
Ronnie Welty
Luis Noel
Scott Moore
Eddie Gamboa
Justin Moore
Pedro Beato
Nathan Moreau

[oriole_way]

I will give you guys one little thing to discuss. There is one player on these lists that most of you will be upset at where he ends up falling on our list. He'll be this year's Hernandez or Fiorentino. The guy everyone thinks is a top ten guy and we have him a bit lower.

By the way, the first four on the list for me are no-brainers (although you can probably make a case to move anyone from 2 through 4), the real discussion will be from 5 on down...

When taking into consideration your (minor league related) posts over the past year or so, I figure it has to be either Hernandez or Reimold. Considering you mentioned Hernandez in your post, I assume it's Reimold.

Do I get a gold star? :o (I always loved those growing up.)

Edit: I guess it could be Snyder as well, although I hope not, considering our need for infield prospects.

[slappy12]

When taking into consideration your (minor league related) posts over the past year or so, I figure it has to be either Hernandez or Reimold. Considering you mentioned Hernandez in your post, I assume it's Reimold.

Do I get a gold star? :o (I always loved those growing up.)

Edit: I guess it could be Snyder as well, although I hope not, considering our need for infield prospects.

He could of been talking about Luis.;)

[Tony-OH]

When taking into consideration your (minor league related) posts over the past year or so, I figure it has to be either Hernandez or Reimold. Considering you mentioned Hernandez in your post, I assume it's Reimold.

Do I get a gold star? :o (I always loved those growing up.)

Edit: I guess it could be Snyder as well, although I hope not, considering our need for infield prospects.

No gold star for you. ;)

[tywright]

No gold star for you. ;)

It has got to be Bergesen

[Big Mac]

My guess is Bergesen.


It has got to be Bergesen

Just a little chance for me to toot my own horn.:D;)

[NoVaO]

Ok, I started doing this a while back, but forgot about it, so I'm just now completing it...

1. Matt Wieters
2. Chris Tillman
3. Brian Matusz
4. Jake Arrieta
5. Nolan Reimold
6. Brandon Erbe

7. Brandon Snyder - As I've stated before, I would really like to see Snyder make a transition to third where his bat will have much more value
8. Chorye Spoone
9. Billy Rowell - would like to see more production before putting him above Snyder

* The above three are basically interchangeable IMO.

10. David Hernandez
11. Zach Britton - left handed, young, projectable, gets GBs...would like to see more K's....No. 3 starter upside

12. Luis Montanez - yes, he's older than other prospects, but he broke out this year, was solid at the MLB level and should be ready to step in and be a solid 4th OF next year.

13. Troy Patton
14. LJ Hoes
15. Brad Bergesen

16. Ryan Adams - put up solid offensive numbers at position where offense is hard to find, while not being old for his league...periphs are a concern as are his defensive problems

17. Kam Mikolio
18. Jason Berken
19. Tony Butler
20. Tyler Kolodny - poor average and K%, but walked a lot and put up some impressive power in a pitcher's league and park
21. Jim Hoey
22. Xavier Avery
23. Matt Angle
24. Pedro Beato - living on draft status now
25. Garabez Rosa - good defense at shortstop raises value
26. Wilfredo Perez - strong peripherals from low levels carried over to AA
27. Tyler Henson - moving back to shortstop would raise value
28. Bob McCrory
29. Wally Crancer - ability to play catcher raises value
30. Nathan Nery

Also of Note

- Chris Salberg, Brett Bordes, Blake Davis, Luis Noel, Scott Moore, Rick Zagone....I could be forgetting someone.

I also decided not to rank Robert Bundy as of yet, but if I were to rank him, he would be in the 10 - 15 range of this list.

[Big Mac]

Also of Note

- Chris Salberg, Brett Bordes, Blake Davis, Luis Noel, Scott Moore, Rick Zagone....I could be forgetting someone.

I also decided not to rank Robert Bundy as of yet, but if I were to rank him, he would be in the 10 - 15 range of this list.

Greg Miclat??

[blazer]

Not to nitpick, because this is your list, but how do you have Rowell that low and behind Hoes. Rowell is 1 year older than Hoes and played 4 levels higher than him this season.

Again, it's your list, I'm just wondering what your reasoning behind that ranking is.

There is just one point separating them on my list, thus they are virtually tied. However, the reason they are so close is that none of Rowell's stats stand out at all; just his age and potential are keeping him this high. All of Hoes stats except his SLG stand out.

[NoVaO]

Greg Miclat??

I really question his ability to hit. I see him in a similar light as Matt Angle, but with less power potential and less of an ability to hit for average. Also, Micat hasn't really played much at the professional level, so I still want to see how well his bat will translate.

[Tony-OH]

Today's the last chance to put in your top 30 as we will start announcing players tomorrow, starting with number one. We'll lock this thread once we start announcing.

[Big Mac]

1. Matt Wieters
2. Chris Tillman
3. Brian Matusz
4. Jake Arrieta
5. Brandon Erbe
6. Nolan Reimold
7. Billy Rowell
8. Brandon Snyder
9. Zach Britton
10. Chorye Spoone
11. LJ Hoes
12. Troy Patton
13. Brad Bergesen
14. David Hernandez
15. Lou Montanez
16. Tony Butler
17. Ryan Adams
18. Xavier Avery
19. Jason Berken
20. Tyler Henson
21. Matt Angle
22. Tyler Kolodny
23. Bobby Bundy
24. Greg Miclat
25. Rick Zagone
26. Kam Mickolio
27. Luis Noel
28. Garabez Rosa
29. Sean Gleason
30. Wilfrido Perez

[YardBirds13]

There are so many people on here that know sooooo much more than me about this, but since Tony has started the count-up (I guess thats what you'd call it), I figure I'll throw my thoughts out there.

1- Wieters
2- Tillman
3- Matusz
4- Arrieta
5- Erbe
6- Snyder
7- Rowell
8- Reimold
9- Britton
10- Hernandez
11- Hoes
12- Spoone
13- Patton
14- Montanez
15- Bergeson
16- Avery
17- Berken
18- Bundy
19- Butler
20- Miclat

Let's see how I do against the guys who actually know what they're doing :D