Heyman: Talks stall between O's and White Sox because Balt wants "Floyd plus"

[ChaosLex]

Wish I could say I was surprised. :rolleyes:

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38241

[Andy_Dufresne]

Wish I could say I was surprised. :rolleyes:

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38241

Trade for Floyd stright up and sign O. Hudson.

[ChaosLex]

By the way, if this has been mentioned elsewhere already, could you merge the threads, mods? Thanks!

[StateFarmFSR]

No way, overplaying our hand again, I am shocked I tell you, shocked:D

[JTrea81]

Talks stalled in November right?

Who honestly knows what is going on with this FO now?

[sangar]

Trade for Floyd stright up and sign O. Hudson.Why would we take less than we could otherwise get? He pushed the last two big trades and did a great job. I'm glad AM is not in the 'hurry up and get less' mode. We're not signing Hudson regardless.

[ChaosLex]

No way, overplaying our hand again, I am shocked I tell you, shocked:D

Until MacPhail realizes that every GM isn't as stupid as Bavasi, we're up a certain creek without a paddle.

Honestly, it'd be poetic justice if we let BRob walk for draft picks, only to have the team that signs him pick up a bunch of Type A free agents. I'd love to see AM's face when we wind up with a 4th round pick rather than a 1st round pick for BRob. :D

[Ruzious]

White Sox GM Ken Williams said to Chicago media outlets through a spokesman that he hasn't spoken to the Orioles since November.
Sorry guys, but I doubt the BRob/Floyd rumor was ever based on substance. It never made any sense.

[Mackus]

Floyd alone isn't a great return, but its enough for Roberts and better than two picks, IMO.

What "plus" implies is the key here though. If he wants Floyd and two other great prospects, MacPhail is asking for too much. If he's trying to get one of Getz or Lillibridge, then I don't mind him pushing for a good deal at this point (but at some point you have to admit you aren't gonna get as much as hoped).

[SrMeowMeow]

I think the eventual return on Roberts will determine whether MacPhail made the right call in not taking Floyd straight up.

[byrdz]

Should McPhail just never ask for more than what the other team wants to give him?

[itsernst]

Why don't the O's add something to the Roberts package?

[Andy_Dufresne]

Why would we take less than we could otherwise get? He pushed the last two big trades and did a great job. I'm glad AM is not in the 'hurry up and get less' mode. We're not signing Hudson regardless.

I agree that Hudson won't sign in Baltimore and the Orioles won't pay him what another team will.
My opinion is that a 26 yearold starting pitcher who has won 17 games and pitched 200 inning in a season is worth more than Brian Roberts.

[Mackus]

Until MacPhail realizes that every GM isn't as stupid as Bavasi, we're up a certain creek without a paddle.

Honestly, it'd be poetic justice if we let BRob walk for draft picks, only to have the team that signs him pick up a bunch of Type A free agents. I'd love to see AM's face when we wind up with a 4th round pick rather than a 1st round pick for BRob. :DHe'd be an idiot if he gave in to the other team's first offer without trying to get more. Especially when its conceivable that the player is indeed worth more.

Also, we still get the sandwich pick regardless of what pick we get directly from the other team. Obviously it would still sting getting a 3rd round pick instead of a late 1st or early 2nd, but its not a tremendous loss.

[ChaosLex]

Should McPhail just never ask for more than what the other team wants to give him?

No, but he should be willing to come down from his demands. As Mackus pointed out, Floyd is better than two unknown draft picks.

[Mackus]

No, but he should be willing to come down from his demands. As Mackus pointed out, Floyd is better than two unknown draft picks.But I also pointed out that he's well within reason to be asking for more than he thinks he'll finally be able to settle on at first.

If you make an offer and a team accepts it right away, you've probably haven't asked for nearly enough.

Negotiation.

[ugen64]

Roberts for Floyd straight up would be a bad deal, and that's the end of it. We could easily get a deal of equal value at the trade deadline, so we might as well keep Roberts and hope a better offer comes in.

[ChaosLex]

But I also pointed out that he's well within reason to be asking for more than he thinks he'll finally be able to settle on at first.

If you make an offer and a team accepts it right away, you've probably haven't asked for nearly enough.

Negotiation.

I hope you're right. But talks "stalling" usually result in nothing happening rather than something happening, IIRC.

[NewMarketSean]

AM needs to come down from his high horse in his trade demands for one year of Roberts. There is also no law against being creative -- offering another player in addition to Roberts or offering to pay some of Roberts salary to get Getz or another player from the WS.

The Bedard trade was magic and will be remembered for a long time. AM needs to stop trying to make another Bedard trade.

[ChaosLex]

Roberts for Floyd straight up would be a bad deal, and that's the end of it. We could easily get a deal of equal value at the trade deadline, so we might as well keep Roberts and hope a better offer comes in.

We could easily get a young pitcher who just won 17 games for a two month rental? Not sure if I buy that.

[NewMarketSean]

Roberts for Floyd straight up would be a bad deal, and that's the end of it. We could easily get a deal of equal value at the trade deadline, so we might as well keep Roberts and hope a better offer comes in.

I don't see how Roberts for Floyd straight-up would be a bad deal for the O's.

[RShack]

I certainly hope the thread title is correct. BRob for Floyd even up? Really? Not me...

[JohnnyK27]

AM needs to come down from his high horse in his trade demands for one year of Roberts. There is also no law against being creative -- offering another player in addition to Roberts or offering to pay some of Roberts salary to get Getz or another player from the WS.

The Bedard trade was magic and will be remembered for a long time. AM needs to stop trying to make another Bedard trade.

Agreed Sean ...And who knows what AM is asking ...but Floyd & Getz is a fair trade. I highly doubt thats all he's asking for.

[NewMarketSean]

I certainly hope the thread title is correct. BRob for Floyd even up? Really? Not me...

One-year for Roberts for 4 of Floyd.

Straight-up is fair. If AM wants more, he wants more. It does sound like he's becoming infamous for wanting to fleece the other team in trades though.

[YaBoyTopher]

None of us are present for these trade negotiations, so we do not know the full details on this and I think it is very pre-mature to bash Mcphail over this one.

This is how negotiations work, team #1 says I will give you Player A for Player B Team #2 responds How about you give me Player A and Player C for Player B.

That is how it goes, rarely if ever do they instantly agree on a deal, thats why they call it negotiating.

My personal feeling is that if we dont have any better options from other teams I would do Floyd for Roberts straight up, but I in no way fault Mcphail for trying to get more, I think he would deserve to be bashed alot more if he DID NOT try to get more.

[Joe'sO's]

Obviously,I wouldn't mind having Floyd but we can't afford to trade Roberts for one person,not to mention an everyday player for one that plays every 5days.The O's don't have the positional depth to cover for a guy who's seldom on the DL.Freel's a big question mark healthwise and he's not getting any younger. I'd rather sign a stop gap starter and let the minor leaguers step up.

[SrMeowMeow]

One-year for Roberts for 4 of Floyd.

Straight-up is fair. If AM wants more, he wants more. It does sound like he's becoming infamous for wanting to fleece the other team in trades though.

I'm ok with that. As far as I'm concerned, it's his job.

Have you actually read anything like that, though? People complaining that MacPhail is too greedy or aggressive? I merely ask.

[jcroemer]

I'm ok with that. As far as I'm concerned, it's his job.

Have you actually read anything like that, though? People complaining that MacPhail is too greedy or aggressive? I merely ask.

I suspect that other GMs are a little wary of MacPhail after he fleeced the Astros and Mariners. If he hadn't done the Bedard deal he may have an easier time this year. Bavasi lost his job for making that trade. If I was an opposing GM I would second guess any trade MacPhail proposed to me. Wouldn't you too, seeing as how he made off with 10 prospects for almost nothing!?!

[NewMarketSean]

I'm ok with that. As far as I'm concerned, it's his job.

Have you actually read anything like that, though? People complaining that MacPhail is too greedy or aggressive? I merely ask.

He wanted more from the Cubs and now he wants more from the WS. I dont think anything concrete has been written about AM being too shrewd... but you have to think that GM's are scared to deal with him.

And maybe that is a good thing. The Ramon deal went off seamlessly.

He's trying to get good value for his best players. Just a shame that any team that trades for Roberts is getting a 1-year rental. Not much you can do there.

[PHRESH]

I'd rather drop Floyd from the deal and just request a handful of prospects.

Roberts for Getz, Allen, Egbert, and Hudson.

Whom does CHW favor more: Poreda or Floyd?

[Frobby]

One-year for Roberts for 4 of Floyd.

Straight-up is fair. If AM wants more, he wants more. It does sound like he's becoming infamous for wanting to fleece the other team in trades though.

I agree that straight up is fair. I suppose the tougher question is whether it makes sense for the Orioles considering they have no obvious candidate to become the starter at 2B or to be the leadoff hitter, whereas they have a lot of pitching talent coming down the pike in the next 1-2 years.

Personally, I'd go ahead and do it. Roberts is gone in a year. Get Floyd here, put him in the rotation, and if we get to the point where we actually have a surplus of quality major league pitching, we can deal someone away when the time comes.

Certainly, if Floyd could duplicate his 2008 performance in 2009, that would have as much value to us as Roberts' 2008 performance did.

[Hank Scorpio]

I'd rather drop Floyd from the deal and just request a handful of prospects.

Roberts for Getz, Allen, Egbert, and Hudson.

Whom does CHW favor more: Poreda or Floyd?

I would imagine the answer to this is Poreda.

[bird watcher]

Until MacPhail realizes that every GM isn't as stupid as Bavasi, we're up a certain creek without a paddle.

Honestly, it'd be poetic justice if we let BRob walk for draft picks, only to have the team that signs him pick up a bunch of Type A free agents. I'd love to see AM's face when we wind up with a 4th round pick rather than a 1st round pick for BRob. :D

Will you eat crow if the deal goes through and AM get more?:scratchchinhmm:

Do you really think Floyd is that good?

[Fan4Life]

I certainly hope the thread title is correct. BRob for Floyd even up? Really? Not me...

I agree. Recent article showing Floyd peripherals as 2008 being more of a fluke. Have to get more than just Floyd. Also, as a previous poster stated, I also think you can get Floyd type return at the deadline.

[ugen64]

The simple fact is, Floyd isn't as good a pitcher as his numbers indicate. His real ERA last season was 3.84; his fielding independent ERA was 4.77. That places him *below* Oliver Perez, Barry Zito, Jason Marquis, Joe Blanton... I'm sure you wouldn't take any of those players in a straight swap for Roberts, even if they were 25 years old and under club control for 4 years (and they performed like they did last season).

Not only that, but Floyd is projected to regress next season. Real ERA projections: Bill James 4.00, Marcel 4.34, Chone 5.05. Fielding independent ERA projections: Bill James 5.14, Marcel 4.82. Those fielding independent numbers put him in the Tim Redding / Livan Hernandez category. But let's say you don't care about fielding independent ERA, only real ERA.

Well, moving from Cellular Field to Camden Yards will actually improve his performance, looking just at park factors. But of course the AL East is tougher than the NL Central, so let's say those factors even out. We'll take the Marcel projection (which IMO is the most accurate one) as the baseline - it's also the median value which is convenient.

So if he throws 200 innings at a 4.34 ERA, he's worth about +2 wins above replacement. Just eyeballing his FanGraphs value chart, Roberts will be worth about +4 to +5 wins above replacement. So what does this tell us? It says that looking optimistically at Floyd and pessimistically at Roberts, Floyd is worth about half as much as Roberts.

Yes, there is the contract situation to deal with. Yes, we have a gaping hole in starting pitching. Yes, pitchers are worth more than hitters in general. But this trade just isn't worth it. Sure, Floyd might have had a real ERA of 3.84, but his skill set translates to an ERA closer to 5, and that's worrisome.

[TakebackOPACY]

I agree that straight up is fair. I suppose the tougher question is whether it makes sense for the Orioles considering they have no obvious candidate to become the starter at 2B or to be the leadoff hitter, whereas they have a lot of pitching talent coming down the pike in the next 1-2 years.

Personally, I'd go ahead and do it. Roberts is gone in a year. Get Floyd here, put him in the rotation, and if we get to the point where we actually have a surplus of quality major league pitching, we can deal someone away when the time comes.

Certainly, if Floyd could duplicate his 2008 performance in 2009, that would have as much value to us as Roberts' 2008 performance did.

One might also ask whether it makes sense for the White Sox considering they don't go five-deep in their depth chart of clearly major league ready starters. I think these two reasons are why some some are speculating that there might not be much to this rumor.

[DuffMan]

I agree that straight up is fair. I suppose the tougher question is whether it makes sense for the Orioles considering they have no obvious candidate to become the starter at 2B or to be the leadoff hitter, whereas they have a lot of pitching talent coming down the pike in the next 1-2 years.


This is my worry as well. I would hate to go through 2009 with the problem of 2B much to what we went through after we dealt Tejada.

[Fan4Life]

The simple fact is, Floyd isn't as good a pitcher as his numbers indicate. His real ERA last season was 3.84; his fielding independent ERA was 4.77. That places him *below* Oliver Perez, Barry Zito, Jason Marquis, Joe Blanton... I'm sure you wouldn't take any of those players in a straight swap for Roberts, even if they were 25 years old and under club control for 4 years (and they performed like they did last season).

Not only that, but Floyd is projected to regress next season. Real ERA projections: Bill James 4.00, Marcel 4.34, Chone 5.05. Fielding independent ERA projections: Bill James 5.14, Marcel 4.82. Those fielding independent numbers put him in the Tim Redding / Livan Hernandez category. But let's say you don't care about fielding independent ERA, only real ERA.

Well, moving from Cellular Field to Camden Yards will actually improve his performance, looking just at park factors. But of course the AL East is tougher than the NL Central, so let's say those factors even out. We'll take the Marcel projection (which IMO is the most accurate one) as the baseline - it's also the median value which is convenient.

So if he throws 200 innings at a 4.34 ERA, he's worth about +2 wins above replacement. Just eyeballing his FanGraphs value chart, Roberts will be worth about +4 to +5 wins above replacement. So what does this tell us? It says that looking optimistically at Floyd and pessimistically at Roberts, Floyd is worth about half as much as Roberts.

Yes, there is the contract situation to deal with. Yes, we have a gaping hole in starting pitching. Yes, pitchers are worth more than hitters in general. But this trade just isn't worth it. Sure, Floyd might have had a real ERA of 3.84, but his skill set translates to an ERA closer to 5, and that's worrisome.

Cha ching.. I hear rep coming your way....

[LA2]

The simple fact is, Floyd isn't as good a pitcher as his numbers indicate. His real ERA last season was 3.84; his fielding independent ERA was 4.77. That places him *below* Oliver Perez, Barry Zito, Jason Marquis, Joe Blanton... I'm sure you wouldn't take any of those players in a straight swap for Roberts, even if they were 25 years old and under club control for 4 years (and they performed like they did last season).

Not only that, but Floyd is projected to regress next season. Real ERA projections: Bill James 4.00, Marcel 4.34, Chone 5.05. Fielding independent ERA projections: Bill James 5.14, Marcel 4.82. Those fielding independent numbers put him in the Tim Redding / Livan Hernandez category. But let's say you don't care about fielding independent ERA, only real ERA.

Well, moving from Cellular Field to Camden Yards will actually improve his performance, looking just at park factors. But of course the AL East is tougher than the NL Central, so let's say those factors even out. We'll take the Marcel projection (which IMO is the most accurate one) as the baseline - it's also the median value which is convenient.

So if he throws 200 innings at a 4.34 ERA, he's worth about +2 wins above replacement. Just eyeballing his FanGraphs value chart, Roberts will be worth about +4 to +5 wins above replacement. So what does this tell us? It says that looking optimistically at Floyd and pessimistically at Roberts, Floyd is worth about half as much as Roberts.

Yes, there is the contract situation to deal with. Yes, we have a gaping hole in starting pitching. Yes, pitchers are worth more than hitters in general. But this trade just isn't worth it. Sure, Floyd might have had a real ERA of 3.84, but his skill set translates to an ERA closer to 5, and that's worrisome.

Thanks, ugen64. By the way, does anyone know whether AM actually goes deep into such stats/projections when he deliberates trades?

[Lucky Jim]

The simple fact is, Floyd isn't as good a pitcher as his numbers indicate. His real ERA last season was 3.84; his fielding independent ERA was 4.77. That places him *below* Oliver Perez, Barry Zito, Jason Marquis, Joe Blanton... I'm sure you wouldn't take any of those players in a straight swap for Roberts, even if they were 25 years old and under club control for 4 years (and they performed like they did last season).

Not only that, but Floyd is projected to regress next season. Real ERA projections: Bill James 4.00, Marcel 4.34, Chone 5.05. Fielding independent ERA projections: Bill James 5.14, Marcel 4.82. Those fielding independent numbers put him in the Tim Redding / Livan Hernandez category. But let's say you don't care about fielding independent ERA, only real ERA.

Well, moving from Cellular Field to Camden Yards will actually improve his performance, looking just at park factors. But of course the AL East is tougher than the NL Central, so let's say those factors even out. We'll take the Marcel projection (which IMO is the most accurate one) as the baseline - it's also the median value which is convenient.

So if he throws 200 innings at a 4.34 ERA, he's worth about +2 wins above replacement. Just eyeballing his FanGraphs value chart, Roberts will be worth about +4 to +5 wins above replacement. So what does this tell us? It says that looking optimistically at Floyd and pessimistically at Roberts, Floyd is worth about half as much as Roberts.

Yes, there is the contract situation to deal with. Yes, we have a gaping hole in starting pitching. Yes, pitchers are worth more than hitters in general. But this trade just isn't worth it. Sure, Floyd might have had a real ERA of 3.84, but his skill set translates to an ERA closer to 5, and that's worrisome.

Is four years of +2 wins worth one year of +4/5 wins (+ 2 picks)? Isn't that the real question? The value of the +4/5 wins has to be discounted by the fact that we won't be winning this year in any forecast.

[ugen64]

Thanks, ugen64. By the way, does anyone know whether AM actually goes deep into such stats/projections when he deliberates trades?

Well, he has much, much, much more at stake than any of us do. This kind of trade could make a big difference in how our club performs over the next 4 years. I doubt he goes on FanGraphs and does what I did, but he probably has a team of statisticians running their own analyses on every deal before he makes a decision.

I mean, the Mariners did hire Tom Tango a few days ago - it wouldn't surprise me if every team had some sort of sabermatric presence in their statistics department. Even if they don't look at fielding independent ERA per se, I'm sure they know enough to analyze his K/9, BB/9, BABIP, etc.

I literally took about 10 minutes to write up that post - sure, it all sounds reasonable, but I'm sure there are lots of flaws in my assumptions, data, etc. MacPhail's staff will have had weeks or even months to spend on this one deal (assuming talks started in November), and surely they have more accurate projection systems and data than I have access to.

[Malike]

People see a MD kid who won 17 games last year and they automatically over-rate Floyd. He'll likely be a number 4/5 starter, and people are acting like we'd be getting an Ace. Floyd is very over-rated on this board.

[anselmO]

Scott Garceau just reported on 105.7 the FAN that a deal that sends B-Rob could possibly include Jermaine Dye coming back along with Floyd. FWIW....

[Leitch]

Jermaine Dye?

Really?

That just sounds too crazy to be true.

[Fan4Life]

Is four years of +2 wins worth one year of +4/5 wins (+ 2 picks)? Isn't that the real question? The value of the +4/5 wins has to be discounted by the fact that we won't be winning this year in any forecast.

Remember....

....It says that looking optimistically at Floyd and pessimistically at Roberts, Floyd is worth about half as much as Roberts.....

[ugen64]

Scott Garceau just reported on 105.7 the FAN that a deal that sends B-Rob could possibly include Jermaine Dye coming back along with Floyd. FWIW....

Dye does have a no-trade clause - why would he want to come to Baltimore?

[Odenton O]

Also, as a previous poster stated, I also think you can get Floyd type return at the deadline.

The only teams trading for B-Rob at the deadline will be contenders, and any contender is unlikely to part with a pitcher like Floyd. They'll need him for their own rotation.

[PaulBako]

Trade Roberts for Floyd right now!!!!

[Lucky Jim]

Scott Garceau just reported on 105.7 the FAN that a deal that sends B-Rob could possibly include Jermaine Dye coming back along with Floyd. FWIW....

Interesting. Wonder what we'd move back. He's going to cost $11+ m this year, but he's gone after this year and could = 2 picks. Or a swap for prospects at the deadline.

I'm not giving up prospects to get that done, though.


Dye does have a no-trade clause - why would he want to come to Baltimore?


Makes it all doubtful.

[Fan4Life]

The only teams trading for B-Rob at the deadline will be contenders, and any contender is unlikely to part with a pitcher like Floyd. They'll need him for their own rotation.

My post was Floyd type value. We'd have to agree on what that is before we can debate it, as it clearly appears that we don't agree.

[ugen64]

The only teams trading for B-Rob at the deadline will be contenders, and any contender is unlikely to part with a pitcher like Floyd. They'll need him for their own rotation.

Not necessarily. For instance, let's say Chase Utley suffers a serious injury in spring training and is out for the whole season. Would it be that inconceivable to see a deal involving Roberts and, say, J.A. Happ (who is IMO a comparable pitcher to Floyd)? They could replace him in the rotation with Park, Carrasco, or even Kyle Kendrick. There are several contenders who have 4th or 5th starters comparable to Floyd, and enough minor league depth to make up for the loss.

[Lucky Jim]

Not necessarily. For instance, let's say Chase Utley suffers a serious injury in spring training and is out for the whole season. Would it be that inconceivable to see a deal involving Roberts and, say, J.A. Happ (who is IMO a comparable pitcher to Floyd)? They could replace him in the rotation with Park, Carrasco, or even Kyle Kendrick. There are several contenders who have 4th or 5th starters comparable to Floyd, and enough minor league depth to make up for the loss.

A contender is far more likely to squawk at the cost of a ML-starter and offer the MiL prospects (which is fine). You don't play prospect-probability games during a penant run.

[ugen64]

A contender is far more likely to squawk at the cost of a ML-starter and offer the MiL prospects (which is fine). You don't play prospect-probability games during a penant run.

OK, that's true. But even if they trade us Carrasco + other prospects (in this entirely hypothetical situation), I think Carrasco has comparable short-term value to Floyd, and higher long-term value. I guess a better point is that you could make a deadline trade for the same *value* as Floyd, if not a directly comparable player necessarily.

[TGO]

While I would rather have Floyd by himself vs the two picks… you can not make this trade now for Floyd alone.

Trade should be Roberts for Floyd, Getz, and either Lillibridge or Broadway (and honestly maybe both) with the WS getting a 2day window to work on an extension.

Getz is not some uber prospect, and both Lillibridge and Broadway had more than their share of struggles in 2008.

Can not imagine that Ken Williams turns that down….

If the extension doesn't get done, who do you drop from your demands?

[Lucky Jim]

Remember....

....It says that looking optimistically at Floyd and pessimistically at Roberts, Floyd is worth about half as much as Roberts.....

The question stands. Some wiggle on either side doesn't make much difference.

[Odenton O]

A contender is far more likely to squawk at the cost of a ML-starter and offer the MiL prospects (which is fine). You don't play prospect-probability games during a penant run.

That's my thought as well. I think anyone in contention in July would MUCH rather pay in prospects than trade a significant part of their current roster and hope that the minor league plug in can pick up the slack in the rotation. Certainly they'd trade a prospect of equal value to Floyd, but not someone like Floyd (ie., an established major league starter of Floyd's ability, whatever that is).

So, potential overall value may the same or even higher, but you aren't going to get the same type of player in a deadline deal. Which was my point.

EDIT: Too slow. :D


OK, that's true. But even if they trade us Carrasco + other prospects (in this entirely hypothetical situation), I think Carrasco has comparable short-term value to Floyd, and higher long-term value. I guess a better point is that you could make a deadline trade for the same *value* as Floyd, if not a directly comparable player necessarily.

[ugen64]

As for Jermaine Dye - I find that hard to believe. If we wanted a corner outfielder who can't field and hits decently, we could have traded for Josh Willingham... why would we want to pay a 34 year old guy $11.5 million to do that instead?

[blueberryale77]

Not necessarily. For instance, let's say Chase Utley suffers a serious injury in spring training and is out for the whole season. Would it be that inconceivable to see a deal involving Roberts and, say, J.A. Happ (who is IMO a comparable pitcher to Floyd)? They could replace him in the rotation with Park, Carrasco, or even Kyle Kendrick. There are several contenders who have 4th or 5th starters comparable to Floyd, and enough minor league depth to make up for the loss.

Utley won't be playing in Spring Training. He had hip surgery and is going to be out until at least June. :p

[Lucky Jim]

That's my thought as well. I think anyone in contention in July would MUCH rather pay in prospects than trade a significant part of their current roster and hope that the minor league plug in can pick up the slack in the rotation. Certainly they'd trade a prospect of equal value to Floyd, but not someone like Floyd (ie., an established major league starter of Floyd's ability, whatever that is).

So, potential overall value may the same or even higher, but you aren't going to get the same type of player in a deadline deal. Which was my point.

I'd actually prefer the group of prospects: odds are better that they're being undervalued relative to ML-ready talent. And especially a talent like Floyd, who's likely over-valued due to his wins, but w/ lousy peripherals.

[Fan4Life]

I'd actually prefer the group of prospects: odds are better that they're being undervalued relative to ML-ready talent. And especially a talent like Floyd, who's likely over-valued due to his wins, but w/ lousy peripherals.

But you still think he's as valuable or more valuable than one year of a premier 2b? If Floyd had 2 2008 seasons under his belt than there's no doubt. But if he turns into a Matt Riley, and you gave up your best asset for him, well enough said. You either have to get more talent so you can feel good a couple have a real shot to make it, or you have to get proven talent. Floyd isn't proven talent and your comments above underscore that.

[blueberryale77]

Scott Garceau just reported on 105.7 the FAN that a deal that sends B-Rob could possibly include Jermaine Dye coming back along with Floyd. FWIW....

Dye is a good player, but why on earth would you trade Brian Roberts and bring back an older player. The whole point of trading Roberts is to get players who will be here, cheap, and good around 2011. And, outfield is our area of least need. :confused:

[Peace21]

This Heyman article tells me a couple things.

A. If we are having talks with K Williams in November about trading Roberts, than he wont resign here.

B. MacPhail is hoping for K Williams to pull a Bavasi.

C. AM is wasting his time even trying to offer Roberts an extension.

[TGO]

Dye only has a limited no-trade in 2009. He can block 6 teams. I would guess we're one of them but you never know. Sometimes guys block based on locations rather than the quality of the teams.

[Fan4Life]

Dye is a good player, but why on earth would you trade Brian Roberts and bring back an older player. The whole point of trading Roberts is to get players who will be here, cheap, and good around 2011. And, outfield is our area of least need. :confused:

What if it's a combination of Stoners comments and this information... if AM wants Getz and 1-2 more guys along with Floyd, we have to take on Dye.

[blueberryale77]

This Heyman article tells me a couple things.

A. If we are having talks with K Williams in November about trading Roberts, than he wont resign here.

B. MacPhail is hoping for K Williams to pull a Bavasi.

C. AM is wasting his time even trying to offer Roberts an extension.

No he's not. The whole point of offering a belated, lowball extension is to have it refused so he can say Roberts wouldn't resign here. He knows Roberts is pretty good at handling the media himself, so he needs some ammunition to come out looking like the good guy instead of the mean old man who traded the local favorite. What he doesn't realize, though, is that it's unnecessary because most of the fans who are already ready to trade Roberts for a bucket of baseballs because he's associated with the most horrible time in Orioles' history.

[Hank Scorpio]

No he's not. The whole point of offering a belated, lowball extension is to have it refused so he can say Roberts wouldn't resign here. He knows Roberts is pretty good at handling the media himself, so he needs some ammunition to come out looking like the good guy instead of the mean old man who traded the local favorite. What he doesn't realize, though, is that it's unnecessary because most of the fans who are already ready to trade Roberts for a bucket of baseballs because he's associated with the most horrible time in Orioles' history.

Your objectivity is wavering.... you're starting to sound like JTrea!!!!!!

Stop the madness!!!!!

[blueberryale77]

What if it's a combination of Stoners comments and this information... if AM wants Getz and 1-2 more guys along with Floyd, we have to take on Dye.

WHy would the WS want to dump Dye for salary savings unless they're in complete rebuilding mode (which would probably preclude them going after a player like Roberts)? He's a good all-around player signed to a fairly reasonable contract ($11M in 2009, $12M mutual option/$1M buyout in 2010).

[RShack]

Scott Garceau just reported on 105.7 the FAN that a deal that sends B-Rob could possibly include Jermaine Dye coming back along with Floyd. FWIW....
Well, that's just silly.
Who is Scott Garceau, and why on earth would he say something dumb like that?

[TGO]

If Dye has come up, it's because Chicago doesn't want to add payroll in this deal. Taking Dye gives them $4.5 million to play with, perhaps for a pitcher or someone like Abreu.

Also, let's chew on this:
Roberts and Jamie Walker (guaranteed money: $12.5M)
Jermaine Dye (guaranteed money: $12.5M)
Just thought that was interesting.

To take Dye we would obviously have to get a little more. And I think we could still spin Dye somewhere else.

[Lucky Jim]

If Dye has come up, it's because Chicago doesn't want to add payroll in this deal. Taking Dye gives them $4.5 million to play with, perhaps for a pitcher or someone like Abreu.

Also, let's chew on this:
Roberts and Jamie Walker (guaranteed money: $12.5M)
Jermaine Dye (guaranteed money: $12.5M)
Just thought that was interesting.

To take Dye we would obviously have to get a little more. And I think we could still spin Dye somewhere else.

This is my thinking, too. And I think there's a solid chance we still get two picks for him if we don't spin him.

I repeat, we better be giving up nothing else. But, really, isn't that a lot of production (even if declining) for Chicago to be giving up?

[ChaosLex]

If Dye has come up, it's because Chicago doesn't want to add payroll in this deal. Taking Dye gives them $4.5 million to play with, perhaps for a pitcher or someone like Abreu.

Also, let's chew on this:
Roberts and Jamie Walker (guaranteed money: $12.5M)
Jermaine Dye (guaranteed money: $12.5M)
Just thought that was interesting.

To take Dye we would obviously have to get a little more. And I think we could still spin Dye somewhere else.

Hmm...

How about BRob for Floyd and Dye

&

Dye for Bailey

:cool:

[Lucky Jim]

But you still think he's as valuable or more valuable than one year of a premier 2b? If Floyd had 2 2008 seasons under his belt than there's no doubt. But if he turns into a Matt Riley, and you gave up your best asset for him, well enough said. You either have to get more talent so you can feel good a couple have a real shot to make it, or you have to get proven talent. Floyd isn't proven talent and your comments above underscore that.

I've said all along that I probably do the deal with Getz but not without. I just don't think it's accurate to measure one year of Roberts against one year of Floyd.

[Peace21]

Well, that's just silly.
Who is Scott Garceau, and why on earth would he say something dumb like that?

Seriously??????? I hope you kidding. Scott is a very well respected sports journalist in this town. The guy knows his stuff. I believe him more than I do Heyman. Heck Heyman said Manny would sign here.

[clapdiddy]

Seriously??????? I hope you kidding. Scott is a very well respected sports journalist in this town. The guy knows his stuff. I believe him more than I do Heyman. Heck Heyman said Manny would sign here.

Manny's not signed, yet! :laughlol:

[RShack]

To take Dye we would obviously have to get a little more. And I think we could still spin Dye somewhere else.


This is my thinking, too. And I think there's a solid chance we still get two picks for him if we don't spin him.
Taking on an old guy with a big contract who we don't need...
So we can either "flip" him... or else *maybe* get draft picks... because we offer him arb and he turns it down?
Really?

I don't think anybody really does things like that.
I'm confident AM doesn't do things like that.

[clapdiddy]

Hmm...

How about BRob for Floyd and Dye

&

Dye for Bailey

:cool:

I could live with this deal. Roberts for Floyd and Bailey...no problem.

[Lucky Jim]

Taking on an old guy with a big contract who we don't need...
So we can either "flip" him... or else *maybe* get draft picks... because we offer him arb and he turns it down?
Really?

I don't think anybody really does things like that.
I'm confident AM doesn't do things like that.

Yes. We know what you think. Have you ever thought that your conception of where value resides my have a blind spot?

And folks do, of course, do it, or something like it: the Sox took on Lowell to get Beckett. The A's took on Holliday. Granted, Holliday is younger, but they're not likely to re-sign him. And he's all they got for a package of prospects. No one does it - but Beane - as their M.O., but in the right circumstance, it has some merit. And, with an expiring contract like B-Rob's, it certainly has some merit.

I certainly hope AM considers doing things like this, because any way we can increase our talent base at the cost of a one-year contract is worthy of consideration.

[Rolotomassie]

I like Scott Garceau, but has he ever been the one to break a major Orioles story? If he has, I sure can't remember it.

[TGO]

Taking on an old guy with a big contract who we don't need...
So we can either "flip" him... or else *maybe* get draft picks... because we offer him arb and he turns it down?
Really?

I don't think anybody really does things like that.
I'm confident AM doesn't do things like that.

MacPhail will not do this if he isn't compensated for the risk that he can't get rid of Dye and Dye tanks. This is so obvious that I didn't even mention it.

For example, the Roberts for Floyd and Dye idea? MacPhail is not going to do that, even if we think we have Dye for Bailey lined up.

[wickedwitch]

If we're getting Dye back, it's a salary dump for the WS, so the additional prospects should be even better.

[Lucky Jim]

MacPhail will not do this if he isn't compensated for the risk that he can't get rid of Dye and Dye tanks. This is so obvious that I didn't even mention it.

For example, the Roberts for Floyd and Dye idea? MacPhail is not going to do that, even if we think we have Dye for Bailey lined up.

I don't know. I think even if Dye tanks (unless it's Sosa-like) he ends up Type-B.

Thus, we get Floyd for four years + a pick for Roberts and $11m.

It really depends on how close AM think Floyd is to Roberts' value.

My guess is they figure Dye to DH, Huff to 1B.

I don't love it. But if it's being considered, that's a good thing. It means they're being creative.

If it's Roberts for Floyd + Dye + Getz, I might actually really like it.

[Fan4Life]

If it's Roberts for Floyd + Dye + Getz, I might actually really like it.

Me too. :D

[PaulBako]

Seriously??????? I hope you kidding. Scott is a very well respected sports journalist in this town. The guy knows his stuff. I believe him more than I do Heyman. Heck Heyman said Manny would sign here.

I'd love to get Manny.

[RShack]

Yes. We know what you think. Have you ever thought that your conception of where value resides my have a blind spot?

And folks do, of course, do it, or something like it: the Sox took on Lowell to get Beckett.
They did not get Lowell to "flip" him or to maybe-get picks for him. Why would you say that?



I certainly hope AM considers doing things like this, because any way we can increase our talent base at the cost of a one-year contract is worthy of consideration.
Getting an expensive old guy during a rebuilding year for maybe-draft picks? For "flips"? I certainly hope he doesn't. And I bet he won't do it.

Schemes like this are too clever by half, and I see no evidence that well run franchises actually do stuff like this.
Your examples certainly don't demonstrate that they do.

[PaulBako]

Hmm...

How about BRob for Floyd and Dye

&

Dye for Bailey

:cool:

Dye for one of the middle infield prospects.

:cool:

[rochester]

I suspect that other GMs are a little wary of MacPhail after he fleeced the Astros and Mariners. If he hadn't done the Bedard deal he may have an easier time this year. Bavasi lost his job for making that trade. If I was an opposing GM I would second guess any trade MacPhail proposed to me. Wouldn't you too, seeing as how he made off with 10 prospects for almost nothing!?!

Don't agree or Atlanta (when John Schuerholz was the GM) would not have made all of the trades they did. Now that's a man that can make a trade to his advantage. I can still remember the uproar (rightfully so) when Angelos butt in ans stopped the Brian Roberts, Hayden Penn, to the Atlanta Braves for first baseman Adam LaRoche trade. I'd rather have a AM saying "no way" than poor Duq/Flanny getting seriously taken advantage of.

[TGO]

BTW, before this thread gets too nutty, let's keep two things in mind:

1) Kenny Williams is a disinformation machine. His FO leaks like a sieve but hardly anyone (local or national) ever gets accurate info from it.

2) MacPhail is a no-info machine.

[Lucky Jim]

They did not get Lowell to "flip" him or to maybe-get picks for him. Why would you say that?


Getting an expensive old guy during a rebuilding year for maybe-draft picks? For "flips"? I certainly hope he doesn't. And I bet he won't do it.

Schemes like this are too clever by half, and I see no evidence that well run franchises actually do stuff like this.
Your examples certainly don't demonstrate that they do.

Exactly? Probably not. The Sox swallowed a Lowell who was in decline (and terrible) to get Beckett. They got lucky with a bounce-back, but swallowing contracts to get extra value in return isn't the worst thing in the world. The A's gave up a bunch of talent for a year of Holliday when they know they're not going to resign him.

The math is a bit different for the A's because they could contend.

An expensive old guy only matters if it's not an expiring contract. Here it is. It would also create some freedom to trade Scott (though, arguably, Reimold presents that same freedom, we just may not recognize it.)

My point is that people take on contracts all the time. Why is this so different? Heck, in this case it's a guy who superficially performed last year.

In this scenario, there's a strong likelihood that for Roberts + $11m we'd end up getting Floyd + 2 picks.

Which means we'd get that we paid $11m for Floyd, who we control through 2013. And still end up with the picks that we would've gotten if we couldn't have traded Roberts.

Further, even in that worst-case, we'd be getting a WAR from Dye of somewhere around 2-2.5 and the same from Floyd meaning that for this year, we'd have (superficially) replaced Roberts' value on the field. But we'd have Floyd for four more years. And two picks from Dye.

[Aberdeener]

You know what's more rare than talented, ML-ready starting pitchers?

Talented, ML-ready second basemen!!

[WietersOvechkin]

I think we are undervaluing what Dye could bring back. With that being said I doubt the White Sox would trade both Floyd and Dye for Roberts. If it is true that they are trying to rid themselves of payroll increases then maybe a deal would look something like:

Roberts and Scott for Dye, Floyd and Getz... with a deal in place that would send Dye elsewhere or maybe us getting back a lower level prospect.

Clearly I am just speculating but isn't that what we are suppose to do on this board. :laughlol::laughlol:

[amateurfan]

They did not get Lowell to "flip" him or to maybe-get picks for him. Why would you say that?


Getting an expensive old guy during a rebuilding year for maybe-draft picks? For "flips"? I certainly hope he doesn't. And I bet he won't do it.

Schemes like this are too clever by half, and I see no evidence that well run franchises actually do stuff like this.
Your examples certainly don't demonstrate that they do.

I agree with most of this. Mostly, it's wasted space discussing the merits of acquiring Dye, because I highly doubt he's coming here. It just doesn't make much sense. If the O's were to get Dye with the intent of picking up an extra draft pick, they would have to be prepared to offer him arbitration, and seeing what's happening now, I doubt the O's would do that. Dye's contribution is becoming a cheaper commodity.
Also, taking on that salary just to win about the same number of games doesn't make a whole lot of sense. There's a higher likelihood of getting two picks from offering Roberts arbitration than Dye. At that point, all you're getting is Floyd, but no wins added to the column during a time when you aren't going to win anyways.

LJ was right, I think, to assert that we shouldn't be comparing one year of Floyd to one year of Roberts. I think Floyd is just as likely to have no value over replacement as he is to sustain last year's success. The deal isn't good if it's just Floyd for Roberts.
I don't see a good match with the WS. The deal would be best worked around prospects and I don't see a lot past Getz in positional prospects worth targeting. If they don't deal Getz, I don't see why this would be a good move.

[clapdiddy]

Roberts and Scott for Dye, Floyd and Getz... with a deal in place that would send Dye elsewhere or maybe us getting back a lower level prospect.


Yes...I'd think that this is a decent deal, provided that we have another destination for Dye...assuming the Dye would be packaged with an arm for another player(s).

[Lucky Jim]

I agree with most of this. Mostly, it's wasted space discussing the merits of acquiring Dye, because I highly doubt he's coming here. It just doesn't make much sense. If the O's were to get Dye with the intent of picking up an extra draft pick, they would have to be prepared to offer him arbitration, and seeing what's happening now, I doubt the O's would do that. Dye's contribution is becoming a cheaper commodity.
Also, taking on that salary just to win about the same number of games doesn't make a whole lot of sense. There's a higher likelihood of getting two picks from offering Roberts arbitration than Dye. At that point, all you're getting is Floyd, but no wins added to the column during a time when you aren't going to win anyways.

LJ was right, I think, to assert that we shouldn't be comparing one year of Floyd to one year of Roberts. I think Floyd is just as likely to have no value over replacement as he is to sustain last year's success. The deal isn't good if it's just Floyd for Roberts.
I don't see a good match with the WS. The deal would be best worked around prospects and I don't see a lot past Getz in positional prospects worth targeting. If they don't deal Getz, I don't see why this would be a good move.

These are fair points. Specifically, the arbitration point. There would be a gamble involved there.

[amateurfan]

Yes...I'd think that this is a decent deal, provided that we have another destination for Dye...assuming the Dye would be packaged with an arm for another player(s).

If the O's were to have another destination for Dye, then they should just make a three team trade. I'd rather not touch Dye. Dye has very little value right now while Dunn and Abreu are on the market.

[WietersOvechkin]

If the O's were to have another destination for Dye, then they should just make a three team trade. I'd rather not touch Dye. Dye has very little value right now while Dunn and Abreu are on the market.

Another thing about Dye is that his value may increase when the deadline roles around. I mean it is definitely a risk to trade for an aging player in hopes of moving him at the deadline but I think we are in a situation that we need to take a little risk on him if the reward could be either 2 draft picks or a Homer Bailey type. I don't anyone on this board would not do Bailey, Floyd and Getz for Roberts and Scott. However, I may be mistaken.

These are the type of risks the orioles need to be taking, IMO because If we just wait things out and nothing happens we end up with the 2 picks for Roberts. Everyone is talking about how they do not want to wait for 2013 to be competitive and if we lose a guy like Roberts for 2 picks that may or may not pan out it might be beyond 2013 when we are competitive. So IMO this is the time when the organization needs to take a risk (if the rumor is even true) on acquiring a player like Dye in hopes of trading him for something later.

[orioles327]

There is no way that the Orioles could trade Roberts for Floyd and Dye straight up. Dye had 34 homers last year and a 292 average. We would have to include aleast one other player.

[ChaosLex]

Roch,
Are the Roberts, Floyd talks still alive?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not at the moment. Unfortunately, people in the Chicago media are shooting down a "rumor" coming out of Baltimore that the White Sox offered Floyd for Roberts. Not sure where that rumor came from, considering that I wrote about how the Sox GM loves Roberts and the Orioles brought up Floyd's name. Not exactly the same thing as saying the White Sox offered Floyd or that a deal was close. - Roch

http://masnsports.com/2009/01/early-returns-on-tex.html

[Singleton]

Wish I could say I was surprised. :rolleyes:

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38241

3 points here.

1. In the poll that I believe you started, didn't most posters vote that the O's should only make the deal if it was for more than Floyd?

2. It's really not Floyd for 1 year of Brob. It's Floyd for several years of Brob or 1 year of Brob plus 2 high draft picks. That's important.

3. Whether the deal is fair if it is straight up depends upon who is the real Floyd. If it is the 2008 version, very fair. If it is the pre-2008 version, yikes.
I haven't read any "expert" opinion that believes that Floyd is as good as he was last year. More likely his a mid 4's ERA guy. It has value but I'd go for more and take the picks if it didn't work out.

[ChaosLex]

The Reds and Sox were said to be talking about a Dye/Bailey deal.

O's get: Floyd, Bailey, Getz, Lillibridge.

Sox get: Scott, BROB

Reds get: Dye

Take out either Getz or Lillibridge, and I think it's a fair deal for all three teams. :)

[Rex Thunder]

Trade for Floyd stright up and sign O. Hudson.

If that trade is available now- I really think you'll be able to get just as much for him come the trade deadline. Deadline offers are sometimes more generous. At this point- I'd just as soon have them hold on to Roberts till mid-season UNLESS they add to Floyd.

At least with him around for the first half of the year- the offense would be fun to watch again... with a LOT of luck- we could stay competitive for a while at least.

I almost feel like dealing Roberts right now would DEFINITELY scare away the more casual Orioles fans away from the team. Tex hurt and many already gave up- but dealing Roberts now could make matters worse unless it's an absolute no-brainer.

I like Floyd too- but I don't think it's a no brainer. Add to the deal though and it sure could be.

[Cubsfan]

While I would rather have Floyd by himself vs the two picks… you can not make this trade now for Floyd alone.

Trade should be Roberts for Floyd, Getz, and either Lillibridge or Broadway (and honestly maybe both) with the WS getting a 2day window to work on an extension.

Getz is not some uber prospect, and both Lillibridge and Broadway had more than their share of struggles in 2008.

Can not imagine that Ken Williams turns that down….

I hope you're kidding. The WS would get 1 year of Roberts and the O's would get a starting pitcher, a 2B, a future SS, and a future pitcher.:laughlol::laughlol:

[TradeAngelos]

For clarification purposes it WAS NOT Scott Garceau who "reported" the Dye story..it was the Chicago media in this article from earlier today,Garceau was just relaying the story.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-06-white-sox-roberts-chicagojan06,0,2233078.story


"It would seem that Floyd, who just had a breakthrough season, would be too much to give in return for an aging player who lives on his legs.

The Orioles also are looking for outfield help, which would put Jermaine Dye into play if the Sox had another outfielder to take Dye's place. A much-rumored trade of Dye would appear to be to a team that has lost out on a free agent outfielder. The free agent market has been slow in developing, although Pat Burrell signed with the Rays on Monday.

Cant believe some didnt post this earlier.

The fact that we would even consider Dye is laughable in and of itself,and the notion that we are "looking for outfield help" makes it even more comical.

[PaulBako]

You don't think that maybe he won 17 games because he had the third best run support in the game last year (6.54 runs of support per 9!), do you?

And before you say something like he won 17 games because of his 3.84 ERA, consider that his other numbers suggest that he really should have had an ERA in the 4.75 range (the difference between his ERA and his FIP ERA was the 5th highest last year; not to mention the 9th best BABIP).

Yep, those 17 wins at age 25 spell future Cy Young for sure. :rolleyes:

He would get some wins with our amazing offense.

[Enjoy Terror]

Scott Garceau just reported on 105.7 the FAN that a deal that sends B-Rob could possibly include Jermaine Dye coming back along with Floyd. FWIW....

Isn't Dye a right fielder? I assume he'll be doing a lot of DHing.

[o'sfan2009]

Isn't Dye a right fielder? I assume he'll be doing a lot of DHing.

For what it's worth

My dad was once on an airport metro train type thing, and saw a man with an autographed A's hat. My dad asked, "Vida Blue?" And the man said, "No, it's my son, Jermaine Dye." Long story short they got to talking, and Dye's father said that Jermaine always loved OPACY and would love to play in Baltimore. This was a while back, while he was in Oakland. So I'm not sure if that still holds true, and whether he just said that being courteous because my dad indicated he was an O's fan. But just tossing that little tidbit into the ring.

[33rdst]

For what it's worth

My dad was once on an airport metro train type thing, and saw a man with an autographed A's hat. My dad asked, "Vida Blue?" And the man said, "No, it's my son, Jermaine Dye." Long story short they got to talking, and Dye's father said that Jermaine always loved OPACY and would love to play in Baltimore. This was a while back, while he was in Oakland. So I'm not sure if that still holds true, and whether he just said that being courteous because my dad indicated he was an O's fan. But just tossing that little tidbit into the ring.

Dye's career stats at OPACY are unreal. he plays to a 129 OPS+ and about a .950 OPS. If we have to take back Dye's 11.5 to get Floyd and Getz for Roberts I'd do it in a heart beat.

BTW Dye has two years on his contract but his final year is a mutual option year.

WE owe BRob 8 million so we'd be assuming a 3.5 million of Dyes contract.

Actually this deal sounds to good to be true. I think Garceau has to be wrong.

[o'sfan2009]

Dye's career stats at OPACY are unreal. he plays to a 129 OPS+ and about a .950 OPS. If we have to take back Dye's 11.5 to get Floyd and Getz for Roberts I'd do it in a heart beat.

BTW Dye has two years on his contract but his final year is a mutual option year.

WE owe BRob 8 million so we'd be assuming a 3.5 million of Dyes contract.

Actually this deal sounds to good to be true. I think Garceau has to be wrong.

I didn't read the whole thread, but you think we would get Floyd, Getz, AND Dye???? Really? Would the deal have to be expanded on our part? I find it hard to believe that they are hesitant to give up another prospect, but would be more than willing to do it if it meant giving up one of the few veteran studs they have left.

[33rdst]

All I read was that Garceau said that dye would be in a deal for Roberts. I didn't see that it required that we include another piece. Although. that's much more plausable then Roberts for all three.

[o'sfan2009]

All I read was that Garceau said that dye would be in a deal for Roberts. I didn't see that it required that we include another piece. Although. that's much more plausable then Roberts for all three.

Yea, as big of a contract he might have, Dye is the really only piece the Sox have worth trading that can net them anything (excluding the likes of Danks, Queintin, etc.) So I would personally be led to believe we would either have to include someone. And that's where the speculation begins...:scratchchinhmm:

[waroriole]

Dye's career stats at OPACY are unreal. he plays to a 129 OPS+ and about a .950 OPS. If we have to take back Dye's 11.5 to get Floyd and Getz for Roberts I'd do it in a heart beat.

BTW Dye has two years on his contract but his final year is a mutual option year.

WE owe BRob 8 million so we'd be assuming a 3.5 million of Dyes contract.

Actually this deal sounds to good to be true. I think Garceau has to be wrong.

It's alot easier to put up those stats when you're facing Orioles pitching at OPACY.:D

[ChaosLex]

You don't think that maybe he won 17 games because he had the third best run support in the game last year (6.54 runs of support per 9!), do you?

And before you say something like he won 17 games because of his 3.84 ERA, consider that his other numbers suggest that he really should have had an ERA in the 4.75 range (the difference between his ERA and his FIP ERA was the 5th highest last year; not to mention the 9th best BABIP).

Yep, those 17 wins at age 25 spell future Cy Young for sure. :rolleyes:

Where did I say that he was a Cy Young candidate? :confused:

[33rdst]

It's alot easier to put up those stats when you're facing Orioles pitching at OPACY.:D

Point taken.:p

[ChaosLex]

You didn't.

I never said you did.

The way some people on here talk about him and his 17 wins, however, you'd surely think he's a future CY.

Oh okay. My bad. I thought the :rolleyes: was directed at me. :o

Is Floyd as good as his record from last year shows? No. However, I'd gladly take Floyd over two draft picks. But that's just me.

[o'sfan2009]

Oh okay. My bad. I thought the :rolleyes: was directed at me. :o

Is Floyd as good as his record from last year shows? No. However, I'd gladly take Floyd over two draft picks. But that's just me.

Totally agree. It's not just you. :)

[Aberdeener]

For clarification purposes it WAS NOT Scott Garceau who "reported" the Dye story..it was the Chicago media in this article from earlier today,Garceau was just relaying the story.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-06-white-sox-roberts-chicagojan06,0,2233078.story



Cant believe some didnt post this earlier.

The fact that we would even consider Dye is laughable in and of itself,and the notion that we are "looking for outfield help" makes it even more comical.

We're "looking for outfield help"??? We may need an LF, but in the grand scheme of things OF is the last place where we need help!

Maybe we're just really close to also addressing 3B after Mora, SS, 2B after Roberts, 1B and our entire starting rotation.

[o'sfan2009]

We're "looking for outfield help"??? We may need an LF, but in the grand scheme of things OF is the last place where we need help!

Maybe we're just really close to also addressing 3B after Mora, SS, 2B after Roberts, 1B and our entire starting rotation.

If MacPhail is looking for outfield help...the FO needs a serious shakeup and WAKE. UP. CALL.

[33rdst]

If MacPhail is looking for outfield help...the FO needs a serious shakeup and WAKE. UP. CALL.

This sounds kind of suspicious to me. It almost sounds like a set up for trading for Dye. The Sox want to get younger maybe they're looking for Reimold instead of Scott.

[o'sfan2009]

This sounds kind of suspicious to me. It almost sounds like a set up for trading for Dye. The Sox want to get younger maybe they're looking for Reimold instead of Scott.

Yea, but can Dye even play left? If we still got Floyd back I would be ok with giving up Reimold, but other than that I'm not so sure...

[baltfan]

If you put Dye in left could you play Scott at first? Could that be the thinking?

[o'sfan2009]

If you put Dye in left could you play Scott at first? Could that be the thinking?

Or Scott in left, Dye DH, and hold out w/ Huff at first for now?

[ugen64]

If you put Dye in left could you play Scott at first? Could that be the thinking?

You'd probably want to play Dye at 1B and leave Scott on LF - Dye's fielding is worse than Scott's.

[33rdst]

Yea, but can Dye even play left? If we still got Floyd back I would be ok with giving up Reimold, but other than that I'm not so sure...

Dye has palyed left, although it's not his best position. I would think he would platoon in left and DH with Scott.

[o'sfan2009]

Dye has palyed left, although it's not his best position. I would think he would platoon in left and DH with Scott.

Hmm..that's definitly intriguing then. If we still got Floyd, I wouldn't object. Especially because of the possibility that Dye can put up insane numbers at OPACY and be traded at the break for two or three prospects.

[33rdst]

Hmm..that's definitly intriguing then. If we still got Floyd, I wouldn't object. Especially because of the possibility that Dye can put up insane numbers at OPACY and be traded at the break for two or three prospects.

If we agreed to take on Dye's contract and added Reimold to the deal, I'd definitely would want Getz and Floyd too.

[ugen64]

Hmm..that's definitly intriguing then. If we still got Floyd, I wouldn't object. Especially because of the possibility that Dye can put up insane numbers at OPACY and be traded at the break for two or three prospects.

He also has an option for 2010 - that might be attractive for a contending team. I honestly wouldn't be *against* getting him with Floyd, but it doesn't seem like a bite-your-hand-off deal IMO.

[My O's Face]

Look at the comments from these people at the bottom after the article...

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38241-roberts-to-chisox-deal-slowed-by-os-request-for-more

[Skipper32]

I'd try B-rob, Penn, and a little cash for Floyd and Getz

[o'sfan2009]

Look at the comments from these people at the bottom after the article...

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38241-roberts-to-chisox-deal-slowed-by-os-request-for-more

It's almost as if the OH overvalues every Oriole with a little upside :laughlol::rofl:

That being said, I think Roberts and a prospect, not necessarily as high as Getz, is suitable.

[o'sfan2009]

Mods, maybe we can combine this thread with the ongoing Roberts one?

[Moose Milligan]

Liz.......

[JohnnyK27]

Look at the comments from these people at the bottom after the article...

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38241-roberts-to-chisox-deal-slowed-by-os-request-for-more

Doesn't surprise me ...The Orioles should offer the Sox a window to extend Roberts .... Then the 1 year rental thing will go away. A trade for Roberts should have happened last season.

[o'sfan2009]

Doesn't surprise me ...The Orioles should offer the Sox a window to extend Roberts .... Then the 1 year rental thing will go away. A trade for Roberts should have happened last season.

That's an understatement if I've ever heard one...but we can't dwell on the past I guess...just have to make due with what we can now. (While I think Floyd is awesome, some of the reports we heard last year...well...yea)

[ugen64]

It's almost as if the OH overvalues every Oriole with a little upside :laughlol::rofl:

That being said, I think Roberts and a prospect, not necessarily as high as Getz, is suitable.

Everyone overvalues good players on their team. We probably overvalue Roberts, while White Sox fans probably overvalue Floyd. I'm sure there were Orioles fans last season who thought the Bedard trade was a bad idea; there were also Mariners (http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/) fans who thought it was a bad idea. (they thought Jones for Bedard was a bad trade by itself - just goes to show how idiotic Bill Bavasi was for throwing in a B+ prospect and an all-star reliever in there).

I'm trying to be as neutral as I can when I say Roberts for Floyd would be a bad trade for the Orioles - but there's 2 things. First is that I'm biased. Second is that I'm basing that on a few minutes of analysis - there's plenty of factors to consider. What is the value of a draft pick? How will Floyd's stats translate to Camden Yards, playing in front of our defense? How does he project not just next season, but over the next 3 or 4 seasons? Honestly, I don't think Roberts / Floyd is a bad trade for either side, I just don't think it's a good trade for the Orioles yet.

[JohnnyK27]

Really ... I dont see Getz being better than a young Hairston Jr. If this doesn't get it done then I'd look for another buyer. The Orioles need prospects ...I'd say pass on Floyd & settle on 2-3 younger prospects.

[o'sfan2009]

Everyone overvalues good players on their team. We probably overvalue Roberts, while White Sox fans probably overvalue Floyd. I'm sure there were Orioles fans last season who thought the Bedard trade was a bad idea; there were also Mariners (http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/) fans who thought it was a bad idea. (they thought Jones for Bedard was a bad trade by itself - just goes to show how idiotic Bill Bavasi was for throwing in a B+ prospect and an all-star reliever in there).

I'm trying to be as neutral as I can when I say Roberts for Floyd would be a bad trade for the Orioles - but there's 2 things. First is that I'm biased. Second is that I'm basing that on a few minutes of analysis - there's plenty of factors to consider. What is the value of a draft pick? How will Floyd's stats translate to Camden Yards, playing in front of our defense? How does he project not just next season, but over the next 3 or 4 seasons? Honestly, I don't think Roberts / Floyd is a bad trade for either side, I just don't think it's a good trade for the Orioles yet.

You have to assume Floyd over 5 years is better than the two picks, especially considering he could be a three or four guy if all of the Big 3 pitchers pan out.

[My O's Face]

Everyone overvalues good players on their team. We probably overvalue Roberts, while White Sox fans probably overvalue Floyd. I'm sure there were Orioles fans last season who thought the Bedard trade was a bad idea; there were also Mariners (http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/) fans who thought it was a bad idea. (they thought Jones for Bedard was a bad trade by itself - just goes to show how idiotic Bill Bavasi was for throwing in a B+ prospect and an all-star reliever in there).

I'm trying to be as neutral as I can when I say Roberts for Floyd would be a bad trade for the Orioles - but there's 2 things. First is that I'm biased. Second is that I'm basing that on a few minutes of analysis - there's plenty of factors to consider. What is the value of a draft pick? How will Floyd's stats translate to Camden Yards, playing in front of our defense? How does he project not just next season, but over the next 3 or 4 seasons? Honestly, I don't think Roberts / Floyd is a bad trade for either side, I just don't think it's a good trade for the Orioles yet.

I believe Floyd is the best thing we can get for BRob. The Cubs players we can get are garbage, and the Indians are out of it now.

Floyd for 1 year of Brob is a great deal for us! Floyd is under control for a while too...

[33rdst]

It's almost as if the OH overvalues every Oriole with a little upside :laughlol::rofl:

That being said, I think Roberts and a prospect, not necessarily as high as Getz, is suitable.

The quotes from the bottom of the article notwithstanding, Floyd is not a given. Just look at the year Rich Hill had in 07. Everyone thought it was his breakthorugh year and then 08 happened. Getz is blocked. He would not only be blocked by Brob. He's blocked by Beckhem as well. If they want a low level prospect that's fine. However, I think they want us to take on Dye's contract.

[o'sfan2009]

The quotes from the bottom of the article notwithstanding, Floyd is not a given. Just look at the year Rich Hill had in 07. Everyone thought it was his breakthorugh year and then 08 happened. Getz is blocked. He would not only be blocked by Brob. He's blocked by Beckhem as well. If they want a low level prospect that's fine. However, I think they want us to take on Dye's contract.

He's not a given, but you have to think he's better than the two picks though. Trust me I don't blame good ole Andy Mac for trying to get more, and your logic makes sense, especially considering Getz would be blocked. But if Roberts for Floyd is the best you have, I still pull the trigger on that offer.

[Frobby]

You don't think that maybe he won 17 games because he had the third best run support in the game last year (6.54 runs of support per 9!), do you?

And before you say something like he won 17 games because of his 3.84 ERA, consider that his other numbers suggest that he really should have had an ERA in the 4.75 range (the difference between his ERA and his FIP ERA was the 5th highest last year; not to mention the 9th best BABIP).

Non-sequitor here. His FIP ERA is irrelevant to how many games he won. His actual ERA is relevant to how many games he won. For purposes of estimating how many games a pitcher won last year, I'd much rather know his ERA than his FIP ERA.

Now, if I wanted to predict what would happen next year, that's a different story.

Putting aside numbers, from what I saw of Floyd last year, he's very dominant when he's on his game. He had a 2.38 ERA in his 17 wins. So to me it's a question of whether he gains consistency with more age and experience.

[o'sfan2009]

Non-sequitor here. His FIP ERA is irrelevant to how many games he won. His actual ERA is relevant to how many games he won. For purposes of estimating how many games a pitcher won last year, I'd much rather know his ERA than his FIP ERA.

Now, if I wanted to predict what would happen next year, that's a different story.

Putting aside numbers, from what I saw of Floyd last year, he's very dominant when he's on his game. He had a 2.38 ERA in his 17 wins. So to me it's a question of whether he gains consistency with more age and experience.

In agreement with you Frobby, I would rather roll the dice for four years with this than rolling the dice on the two picks we would get for Roberts.

[TakebackOPACY]

This thread is spinning out of control with people reading part of the thread and missing important pieces of info.

As far as I can tell:
The White Sox inquired about Roberts. The O's brought up Floyd as a possible center piece in a potential deal. The White Sox said no thanks, they can't trade Floyd. Therefore, this incarnation of a deal appears to be non-existent. (I guess you never know, though.) If there's a deal to be had with the White Sox, it'll be very different than this. Some reporters ran with the rumor, and the White Sox are denying that Floyd was ever in play. The discussion on Dye potentially being available was pure speculation on the part of some writer (and it was presented as speculation, not a scoop). The Dye talk doesn't seem to have anything to do with the Orioles or Roberts. Someone here reported that Scott Garceau talked about Dye today, which he did, but there were some things lost in translation. Beyond wild speculation, there's no connection between Dye and the Orioles at this time.

This is just what I've drawn from reading this thread. I haven't gone outside of the thread yet to read articles and decide if everything I've said here is accurate.

[Lucky Jim]

This thread is spinning out of control with people reading part of the thread and missing important pieces of info.

As far as I can tell:
The White Sox inquired about Roberts. The O's brought up Floyd as a possible center piece in a potential deal. The White Sox said no thanks, they can't trade Floyd. Therefore, this incarnation of a deal appears to be non-existent. (I guess you never know, though.) If there's a deal to be had with the White Sox, it'll be very different than this. Some reporters ran with the rumor, and the White Sox are denying that Floyd was ever in play. The discussion on Dye potentially being available was pure speculation on the part of some writer (and it was presented as speculation, not a scoop). The Dye talk doesn't seem to have anything to do with the Orioles or Roberts. Someone here reported that Scott Garceau talked about Dye today, which he did, but there were some things lost in translation. Beyond wild speculation, there's no connection between Dye and the Orioles at this time.

This is just what I've drawn from reading this thread. I haven't gone outside of the thread yet to read articles and decide if everything I've said here is accurate.

This thread really isn't about news, though. Just spitballing combinations.

[ChaosLex]

BRob, Mora & Scott for Floyd, Dye, Fields & Getz

[LookinUp]

BRob, Mora & Scott for Floyd, Dye, Fields & Getz

We should just make it the White Sox for the Orioles and go from there. ;)

[Riggodrill44]

There is no number 3 starter worth Roberts straight up.We can always give them a window to extend Roberts before they make the trade.You do remember we had a deal for Lee but the FO was to cheap and we didn't get the deal done.

We need more for Roberts

[Tank]

Bergesen or Mickolio

[SrMeowMeow]

Nothing, really. If they turned that down I'd go elsewhere or maybe just take Floyd straight up...but I don't think Getz is that special.

[ChaosLex]

We should just make it the White Sox for the Orioles and go from there. ;)

:D

Seriously though, I think it makes sense for both sides. I think there's a good chance that MelMo would waive his no-trade clause to play for his fellow countryman. Also, while Scott isn't as good as Dye, the White Sox would have him under control for much, much longer. And there wouldn't be too much of a difference in production, IMO.

[shroombal]

I really don't understand why everyone is so caught up on Chris Getz. Sure he's a prospect at 2B, but I don't think he's going to be anything more than a bench player. No one seems to projecting him to be much. I could be wrong, but I really don't think he should be someone who is holding up the trade. Our infield in a couple years will be in shambles though if we don't find someone to put there. I say we hopefully get someone in a trade for Aubrey Huff, because first base and DH are much easier holes to fill through free agency.

[Frobby]

No, what's irrelevant is how many games he won - especially when considering the phenomenal run support he had.

Give me FIP ERA over number of wins when determining who had the better year any day of the week. Also, when his RA is 0.82 runs higher than his ERA (0.33 is more typical for a 3.84 ERA) that tells a whole lot about how well he really pitched. Of course, that 4.66 RA is pretty darn close to his 4.77 FIP ERA, isn't it?

He had a 2.38 ERA in games in which he got the win last year? That's pretty good. Of course Daniel Cabrera's ERA in his wins was 2.29 (and 2.00 for his career). Would you trade Roberts for Cabrera? You also need to look at the 12 unearned runs and resullting 3.34 RA. If you want to have a discussion on useful stats, it would be a pretty long time before ERA in games won is mentioned.

Gavin Floyd is at best a #3 starter (which means he's looking at a 4.80 ERA in Baltimore).

Brian Roberts (even for one year) is worth more than that.

Please understand that I'm not arguing about whether Floyd "deserved" his 3.84 ERA, or whether he "deserved" 17 wins, or whether FIP ERA is a better measure of how good the pitcher was than wins is. You are setting up straw man arguments that I never made.

You said Floyd won so many games because he had great run support. That's absolutely true. But he also won that many games because he allowed relatively few runs.

I will grant you that the discrepancy between his RA and his ERA takes away from my point somewhat. I didn't know about that. But at the end of the day, whether your FIP ERA is 2.00 or 6.00, if your actual ERA is 4.00 it should translate into about the same number of wins regardless of how many runs you "should have" allowed.

One other point: DCab's 2.29 ERA in his wins would be more impressive if that was his ERA over 17 games, and not over 8 games. My point was that Floyd can be pretty dominant when he's on his game. Certainly the same is true of DCab. But Floyd was on his game slightly more than half the time, whereas for DCab is was a quarter of the time.

So I'm not really debating any of the statistical points you have made about Floyd having been helped by run support and defensive factors. Where I think we part company is that it's my assumption that a 25 year old pitcher has a pretty good chance of getting better at his craft, whereas you seem to want to freeze him at his 2008 level.

[Bradysburns]

Wish I could say I was surprised. :rolleyes:

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38241

I just think this would be an incredibly great trade for both sides - Brian straight up for Gavin. In the long-run, if Gavin stays healthy it could be a steal. But look at his numbers in the bigs: top 10 in AL ERA, innings pitched and wins... and he's 25.

If this trade goes down, the O's should sign Floyd to a longer-term deal immediately.

And if anything, the O's should throw in a plus prospect like Riemold to get Getz (a really nice Triple-A player and MLB ready) for 2B.

Gooooo Andy. Get 'er done you little bespectacled Baltimorean! Get Floyd here now! This could be even better than signing Tex in some ways. He's a very young starting pitcher who comes cheap, but with Bedard-like numbers and without the injury history!

[TGO]

I just think this would be an incredibly great trade for both sides - Brian straight up for Gavin. In the long-run, if Gavin stays healthy it could be a steal. But look at his numbers in the bigs: top 10 in AL ERA, innings pitched and wins... and he's 25.

If this trade goes down, the O's should sign Floyd to a longer-term deal immediately.

And if anything, the O's should throw in a plus prospect like Riemold to get Getz (a really nice Triple-A player and MLB ready) for 2B.

Gooooo Andy. Get 'er done you little bespectacled Baltimorean! Get Floyd here now! This could be even better than signing Tex in some ways. He's a very young starting pitcher who comes cheap, but with Bedard-like numbers and without the injury history!

None of those three categories are really that meaningful, at least not for a one-year period. And he certainly does not have Bedard-like numbers.

That's not to say I wouldn't want him, but let's not get crazy in love with his stats. Read 1970's posts.

[DrungoHazewood]

So I'm not really debating any of the statistical points you have made about Floyd having been helped by run support and defensive factors. Where I think we part company is that it's my assumption that a 25 year old pitcher has a pretty good chance of getting better at his craft, whereas you seem to want to freeze him at his 2008 level.

While pitchers are like everyone else, in that they peak around age 27 as a group, they get there in a very different way than position players. Position players peak around 27 because they're not as good at 22, they get better with experience, but decline after 27 because their erosion of skills eclipses their gains through experience.

Pitchers, on the other hand, are often nearly as good as they'll ever be at 22 or 23 and don't really change in value a whole lot over time except because of injury. As a group they peak at 27 because the attrition rate before age 25 is terrible, and they lose velocity in their 30s. A very significant number of pitchers have what you'd think are unorthodox aging characteristics. There are probably as many Steve Averys and Dwight Goodens and Doug Joneses and Billy Taylors as there are pitchers with a value curve that looks like a bell.

As you know, quality of pitching is very well correlated to strikeout rate (as long as walks and homers don't get out of control). And strikeout rate peaks almost the day a pitcher enters the league (speaking in generalities, of course).

Floyd may get better between 25 and 27, but what's just as likely is that he stays the same or even declines as he puts more mileage on his arm than he has in the past because he's been pitching better.

[ChaosLex]

John from Eldersburg said:
Roch,

What are the chances that the Floyd trade comes through and do you see Guthrie as the #1 or Floyd?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't see it happening now. Didn't necessarily see it happening before. Just know the two sides talked about it. - Roch

http://masnsports.com/2009/01/the-newest-pitcher---pending-a.html

[Lucky Jim]

http://masnsports.com/2009/01/the-newest-pitcher---pending-a.html

Can't imagine anyone is shocked by this. Whether the value is even or not, in a vacuum, it's hard to see a team trying to contend giving up a guy who won 17 games last year (earned or not) without replacing him.

This was interesting much more as a thought experiment than as an actuality.

[JohnnyK27]

Can't imagine anyone is shocked by this. Whether the value is even or not, in a vacuum, it's hard to see a team trying to contend giving up a guy who won 17 games last year (earned or not) without replacing him.

This was interesting much more as a thought experiment than as an actuality.

The media posturing could well just be leveraging. This seems to be the Macphail way in the trade market.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Wish I could say I was surprised. :rolleyes:

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/38241

I hope they do NOT work out!!!:wedge::clap3:
I love My Perfect One!:hearts:

[cindyluvsbrady]

Why don't the O's add something to the Roberts package?

The Os should NOT:no: ever have ANY Roberts packages:rolleyestf::eek:

[ChaosLex]

I hope they do NOT work out!!!:wedge::clap3:
I love My Perfect One!:hearts:

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this will be BRob's last season with the O's. Of that, I have no doubt.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this will be BRob's last season with the O's. Of that, I have no doubt.

Maybe we can make a bet?;)
I am praying VERY hard!:pray::002_scry:

[jcroemer]

Maybe we can make a bet?;)
I am praying VERY hard!:pray::002_scry:

He's already played his last game here.

[ChaosLex]

Maybe we can make a bet?;)
I am praying VERY hard!:pray::002_scry:

I'll take that bet. ;)

[Lucky Jim]

The media posturing could well just be leveraging. This seems to be the Macphail way in the trade market.

No doubt. That seems more likely when a trade makes sense than when it doesn't. Truly, I think this has been a good discussion. But I think the odds of the trade being pulled off are unlikely, not due to words in the press, but due to real-world concerns and needs on the part of a contending team.

[cindyluvsbrady]

He's already played his last game here.

NO!!!!!!!!!:no::pray::old5fan::002_scry:

[jcroemer]

NO!!!!!!!!!:no::pray::old5fan::002_scry:

It's okay, my wife says the same thing.

[ChaosLex]

NO!!!!!!!!!:no::pray::old5fan::002_scry:

Cindy, don't you find it strange that BRob hasn't signed an extension yet? The O's have been a joke for the length of his tenure here.

With no hope in sight (at least for the next couple seasons), who can blame him for wanting to play for a winner?

[WebLink21]

Until MacPhail realizes that every GM isn't as stupid as Bavasi, we're up a certain creek without a paddle.

Honestly, it'd be poetic justice if we let BRob walk for draft picks, only to have the team that signs him pick up a bunch of Type A free agents. I'd love to see AM's face when we wind up with a 4th round pick rather than a 1st round pick for BRob. :D

This is probably the same thing that you were saying about Bavasi last year. We have no idea what is going on in these negotiations. You seem to have joined a group of posters that have nothing good to say about the FO. I hope this group remembers all the bad things that they have said when this team gets turned around. I have never seen so many people turn on a FO so quickly based on rumors and "insider" reports. We all knew this rebuild was not going to happen overnight. How about we give them a little more than one season to correct an 11 year problem.

[DuffMan]

Cindy, don't you find it strange that BRob hasn't signed an extension yet? The O's have been a joke for the length of his tenure here.

With no hope in sight (at least for the next couple seasons), who can blame him for wanting to play for a winner?

Is it on record that we have even offered him an extension this offseason? I am not talking about just a phone call to Roberts letting him know they would like to talk to him about the idea of signing an extension. I am talking about a legitimate offer.

[maudibjr]

I think this whole thread is a mountain out of a molehill.

[cindyluvsbrady]

It's okay, my wife says the same thing.

I like your wife!:):wedge:

[ChaosLex]

This is probably the same thing that you were saying about Bavasi last year. We have no idea what is going on in these negotiations. You seem to have joined a group of posters that have nothing good to say about the FO. I hope this group remembers all the bad things that they have said when this team gets turned around. I have never seen so many people turn on a FO so quickly based on rumors and "insider" reports. We all knew this rebuild was not going to happen overnight. How about we give them a little more than one season to correct an 11 year problem.

Maybe you should actually read my posts before posting garbage like this?

I just praised the FO for picking up Uehara. Don't let that stop you though. :rolleyes:

[WebLink21]

Maybe you should actually read my posts before posting garbage like this?

I just praised the FO for picking up Uehara. Don't let that stop you though. :rolleyes:

That is one positive to about 500 negative posts this off season. I read almost every post that you put on here. Would you like to go back and count the negative ones in just this week alone? I am going to set the over/under to 100 to start. Just because you put a cute little eye rolling face, doesn't make the comment less negative.

[ChaosLex]

That is one positive to about 500 negative posts this off season. I read almost every post that you put on here. Would you like to go back and count the negative ones in just this week alone? I am going to set the over/under to 100 to start.

So, I should just swallow everything the FO does hook, line and sinker. I'm sorry but that's b.s. I praise the FO when I feel they deserve it and I rip them a new one when I feel they deserve it. Like it or not, I'm entitled to my own opinion.

I've had plenty of good conversations with you in the past, WebLink. But if you're going to continue to target me with this b.s., you're going to find yourself on my ignore list in no time.

[Sports Guy]

Few notes on the whole BRob situation(some things I have been told, others based on what I have read):

1) We apparently have asked for Floyd and Getz.

2) AM isn't likely to pay BRob what it will take.

3) Don't discount the idea of taking on a contract like Dye or Jones...I say this because I think AM wants BRob gone and wants some young players back that he really likes...I think he understands the financial part of it and also knows that letting BRob walk for just draft picks isn't going to sit well with the common fan.

[Peace21]

Few notes on the whole BRob situation(some things I have been told, others based on what I have read):

1) We apparently have asked for Floyd and Getz.

2) AM isn't likely to pay BRob what it will take.

3) Don't discount the idea of taking on a contract like Dye or Jones...I say this because I think AM wants BRob gone and wants some young players back that he really likes...I think he understands the financial part of it and also knows that letting BRob walk for just draft picks isn't going to sit well with the common fan.

Andruw Jones?

[Sports Guy]

Andruw Jones?

Yea...AM is working to move BRob...He is actually being the aggressor this time. That's why it wouldn't surprise me to see him take on a contract to get the deal done.

Not saying he will but its not something I would totally discount.

[Art Wing]

3) Don't discount the idea of taking on a contract like Dye or Jones...I say this because I think AM wants BRob gone and wants some young players back that he really likes...I think he understands the financial part of it and also knows that letting BRob walk for just draft picks isn't going to sit well with the common fan.

Smart. I like this strategy- depending on the young players of course.




Thanks SG.

[Peace21]

Yea...AM is working to move BRob...He is actually being the aggressor this time. That's why it wouldn't surprise me to see him take on a contract to get the deal done.

Not saying he will but its not something I would totally discount.

Do you get the sense both sides..Roberts and the O's want this resolved soon?

[Singleton]

Yea...AM is working to move BRob...He is actually being the aggressor this time. That's why it wouldn't surprise me to see him take on a contract to get the deal done.

Not saying he will but its not something I would totally discount.

I have been wondering about the Mets who are desperate to improve at second and need to get rid of Luis Castillo. I know that's one ugly contract but they have some interesting prospects that fit our needs.

[Sports Guy]

Do you get the sense both sides..Roberts and the O's want this resolved soon?

No sense of this at all....I am sure they would like it done soon but I doubt AM is in a hurry...Based on what the Sun article said today, it sounds like AM agrees with me in terms of what kind of extension to give to BRob.

BRob ain't signing it and I don't think AM will go much higher.

[Peace21]

No sense of this at all....I am sure they would like it done soon but I doubt AM is in a hurry...Based on what the Sun article said today, it sounds like AM agrees with me in terms of what kind of extension to give to BRob.

BRob ain't signing it and I don't think AM will go much higher.

Yeah I get that sense too.

[Birds08]

What would we do with Andruw if we got him? Let him rot on our bench?

[Sports Guy]

What would we do with Andruw if we got him? Let him rot on our bench?

DH Scott and play him in LF..Huff to first?

Remember, we want a RHed bat...Dye and Jones are right handed bats...Dye is obviously a better bet.

[Peace21]

DH Scott and play him in LF..Huff to first?

Remember, we want a RHed bat...Dye and Jones are right handed bats...Dye is obviously a better bet.

But how willing is Kenny Williams to adding Getz to the deal? And would we be adding pieces too?

[Dannyboy]

What would we do with Andruw if we got him? Let him rot on our bench?

DH? And hope he makes a great come back and unload him at the deadline for more prospects.

[ChaosLex]

Few notes on the whole BRob situation(some things I have been told, others based on what I have read):

1) We apparently have asked for Floyd and Getz.

2) AM isn't likely to pay BRob what it will take.

3) Don't discount the idea of taking on a contract like Dye or Jones...I say this because I think AM wants BRob gone and wants some young players back that he really likes...I think he understands the financial part of it and also knows that letting BRob walk for just draft picks isn't going to sit well with the common fan.

SG, would you make this trade?

BRob and Scott for Floyd, Getz and Dye

[Sports Guy]

But how willing is Kenny Williams to adding Getz to the deal? And would we be adding pieces too?

I am not sure...I don't get a sense of what the WS are willing to even trade for BRob.

I am not sure about all of this.

On one hand, I think AM should be asking for Getz, along with Floyd.

On the other hand, I hope AM isn't stubborn and is willing to take the Floyd for BRob swap or perhaps try and get 3-4 players from the Sox, not including Floyd.

AM seems to always want to get get a more than fair deal...That's not always going to work...So, here is hoping he is ok with a fair deal.

[Sports Guy]

SG, would you make this trade?

BRob and Scott for Floyd, Getz and Dye

Yea I would..Dye should end up being worth a pick or 2, although in this economy, I guess that's no guarantee but I like the trade upside of Dye more than Scott, despite the salaries.

[BrettMeister86]

I would absolutely do 1 year of Roberts for 4 years of Floyd. This is exactly the type of move that Andy should be making, improve our rotation with proven MLB talent and not solely rely on the prospects coming up. Guthrie and Floyd are both young and talented top of the rotation starters and would be a great foundation when the young aces show up.

Start Freel at 2B as a stop gap and hope that our new top 2B prospect Chris Turner has another good season.

2010

Guthrie
Floyd
Matusz
Arrieta
Tillman

(DROOL)