Law: Uehara not "best fit" for O's

[TCAlumni9700]

Do the guys at ESPN ever give up trashing us? Are we supposed to go into 2009 with no one at all?

Link - http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3816434&name=law_keith

[Mackus]

Well, he's not the best fit, and Camden Yards isn't the best fit for his style either.

But, he should do well enough, which is all he needs to do for $10M guaranteed over 2 years.

[PaulBako]

He is wrong. Does he even know about the other pitchers we have other than Guthrie? does he know about the team's walk issue?

This was a great signing for us.

[TCAlumni9700]

Well, he's not the best fit, and Camden Yards isn't the best fit for his style either.

But, he should do well enough, which is all he needs to do for $10M guaranteed over 2 years.

Understood. But they don't mention us at all, until we do something they don't like. Ridiculous.

[tennOsfan]

That has got to be the dumbest of all the dumb things I've seen from ESPN.

He's not a "good fit" because he has to face the Red Sox and Yankees? Well, who the heck is? "He'll have to be ultra-precise." No sh**. Anyone else in our rotation would need to be precise too, and we've had a heck of a time trying to find five of those guys at a time.

And he disses Uehara as a bad fit because Camden Yards yields so many home runs. Can Keith Law's ignorance be any more obvious?

Who does Law think would be a better fit for the terms of this contract?

[Lucky Jim]

He is wrong. Does he even know about the other pitchers we have other than Guthrie? does he know about the team's walk issue?

This was a great signing for us.

It's a fair analysis. Of course, anyone we were looking to sign who's not, essentially, Kevin Brown circa 1995 would be a bad signing: we need guys with good K-rates and high GB rates, ideally.

On the other hand, the alternatives would all suffer the same obstacles, and Uehara is, at least, a professional, with good command.

Maybe at Petco, he's a 3.70 ERA guy and here he's at 4.50 or so. We still win at the cost. With the added benefit of market entry.

I think Law isn't criticizing the signing, rather than just saying that it's not an ideal profile fit.

[Stotle]

Eh, I think Law is giving a take on most offseason moves. I'd like a little more "thinking" with regards to contract value and strike-throwing, but I don't think there is anything anti-Orioles about the piece.

[Stotle]

It's a fair analysis. Of course, anyone we were looking to sign who's not, essentially, Kevin Brown circa 1995 would be a bad signing: we need guys with good K-rates and high GB rates, ideally.

On the other hand, the alternatives would all suffer the same obstacles, and Uehara is, at least, a professional, with good command.

Maybe at Petco, he's a 3.70 ERA guy and here he's at 4.50 or so. We still win at the cost. With the added benefit of market entry.

I think Law isn't criticizing the signing, rather than just saying that it's not an ideal profile fit.

Yeah, what Jim said.

[UMDTerrapins]

The only time the national media pays any attention to the Orioles is to criticize us. I think one of the resolutions the Orioles should make is that only local and international media are allowed in the locker room during the playoffs and World Series. Of course, we have to get there first........ But that would be pretty sweet.

[Lucky Jim]

That has got to be the dumbest of all the dumb things I've seen from ESPN.

He's not a "good fit" because he has to face the Red Sox and Yankees? Well, who the heck is? "He'll have to be ultra-precise." No sh**. Anyone else in our rotation would need to be precise too, and we've had a heck of a time trying to find five of those guys at a time.

And he disses Uehara as a bad fit because Camden Yards yields so many home runs. Can Keith Law's ignorance be any more obvious?

Who does Law think would be a better fit for the terms of this contract?

This is a legitimate worry. While Camden played somewhat neutral (or more pitcher-friendly than the stereotype) for a while, it's always welcomed, rather than suppressed HRs. This has only been exacerbated recently, whether by the additoin of the hotel, or otherwise.

Look at his HR rates in Japan. They're likely to go up. As long as he doesn't allow too many baserunners, so be it.

You don't take flyball pitchers with upper 80s stuff who live around the plate and think "Camden Yards is ideal."

What exactly is your problem with this perfectly reasonable assessment?

[ChaosLex]

That has got to be the dumbest of all the dumb things I've seen from ESPN.

I don't know. Buster Olney probably takes the cake for saying we had no business even inquiring about Tex, only to pick up as one of the "losers" in the Teixeira sweepstakes. :rolleyes:

[nadecir]

Uehara may be best suited for the pen. There is some question about whether he can be effective for more than a few innings, and whether he can stay away from injuries as a starter. Here is an earlier article from ESPN from November about him:
Uehara, his longtime Central League rival, is a different puzzle altogether. He has a good fastball and a superb splitter and throws a decent slider that used to be very good. The Giants ace will get major league hitters out, provided he maintains his focus.

Uehara, who has a career 112-61 record with a 3.01 ERA and is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award (for Japan's best starting pitcher), drifted through the 2008 season in unpredictable spasms.

He set the Giants' save record (32) in 2007, when leg injuries curtailed his fitness. He returned to the rotation for the 2008 season but was sent to the minors after stinking up five straight starts.

Although no injury was reported, he remained on the farm team until the end of June. Put back in the bullpen, he was ineffective until he was surprisingly named to Japan's Olympic squad.

His turnaround was instantaneous. After half a season of falling behind hitters and walking them or getting hit hard, Uehara began locating his fastball. The walks stopped, the strikeouts increased and it was business as usual.

Uehara rejoined the rotation after some solid games in Beijing and was good enough to help the Giants complete a historic comeback in the pennant race.
"He's really solid for two innings," Brown said.

But the ease with which Uehara suddenly switched on his effectiveness makes one wonder why Uehara couldn't solve his riddle before he was named to the Olympic team.

One explanation is that he might have been playing hurt early in the year with the groin and leg problems that have dogged him in recent seasons. Although Uehara ran track in high school (because his school didn't have a baseball team), he has developed a reputation as a player who doesn't like to run and whose conditioning is suspect.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotsto...e=MLBHeadlines

[tennOsfan]

This is a legitimate worry. Look at his HR rates in Japan. They're likely to go up. As long as he doesn't allow too many baserunners, so be it.

You don't take flyball pitchers with upper 80s stuff who live around the plate and think "Camden Yards is ideal."

What exactly is your problem with this perfectly reasonable assessment?

That there have been plenty of empirical presentations on OH showing how it's a myth that Camden Yards yields so many home runs. It's likely an average-type of park in that respect.

[Lucky Jim]

That there have been plenty of empirical presentations on OH showing how it's a myth that Camden Yards yields so many home runs. It's likely an average-type of park in that respect.

You're simply wrong here. It suppresses doubles and triples. It's homer-friendly. Until recently, it shaded to pitcher friendly. This has recently changed.

Is three years long enough? Or do we need to go deeper? Sorry it's scrambled...but sorted by HR Park Factor.


1 Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland) 1.051 1.359 1.044 0.989 0.566 0.948
2 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.122 1.353 0.974 0.907 0.564 1.087
3 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.126 1.299 1.098 1.048 1.387 0.919
4 Great American (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.069 1.230 1.010 1.017 1.038 1.013
5 Rangers Ballpark (Arlington, Texas) 1.142 1.229 1.070 1.042 2.227 1.030
6 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 1.077 1.188 1.074 0.972 1.114 0.877
7 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.068 1.163 1.032 0.975 0.658 0.939
8 Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas) 1.036 1.155 1.012 1.102 0.908 1.002
9 Shea Stadium (Flushing, New York) 0.946 1.081 0.926 0.935 0.500 1.088
10 Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona) 1.135 1.068 1.072 1.242 1.406 0.955


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2008


Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 2.283 2.099 2.254 2.797 1.867 2.163
2 Angel Stadium (Anaheim, California) 1.808 1.639 1.992 2.646 0.957 1.935
3 Great American (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.095 1.351 0.971 1.051 0.815 1.036
4 Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland) 1.109 1.228 1.096 0.963 1.350 0.993
5 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.293 1.228 1.350 1.680 1.740 1.009
6 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.084 1.220 1.034 0.985 0.474 0.968
7 Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) 0.987 1.181 1.020 0.988 0.688 0.862
8 Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) 0.944 1.161 0.907 1.055 1.182 0.942
9 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 1.051 1.140 1.004 0.969 1.595 1.055
10 Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin) 1.011 1.119 0.944 1.049 0.500 1.104



Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California) 1.888 2.107 1.969 1.893 0.857 2.202
2 Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona) 1.141 1.343 1.101 1.096 1.636 1.084
3 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.054 1.307 1.009 0.912 0.645 1.120
4 Great American (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.153 1.275 1.026 0.929 0.400 1.065
5 Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) 1.067 1.272 1.031 1.016 2.000 0.954
6 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.075 1.212 1.011 1.080 1.364 0.898
7 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 1.063 1.201 1.007 1.029 0.653 0.955
8 Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland) 0.985 1.184 1.030 0.876 0.600 0.914
9 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 1.246 1.180 1.265 1.151 1.289 1.245
10 Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas) 1.034 1.171 0.989 1.007 1.292 0.965

[El Gordo]

That has got to be the dumbest of all the dumb things I've seen from ESPN.

He's not a "good fit" because he has to face the Red Sox and Yankees? Well, who the heck is? "He'll have to be ultra-precise." No sh**. Anyone else in our rotation would need to be precise too, and we've had a heck of a time trying to find five of those guys at a time.

And he disses Uehara as a bad fit because Camden Yards yields so many home runs. Can Keith Law's ignorance be any more obvious?

Who does Law think would be a better fit for the terms of this contract?Obviously, we should have gone after CC.:rolleyestf:

[nadecir]

That there have been plenty of empirical presentations on OH showing how it's a myth that Camden Yards yields so many home runs. It's likely an average-type of park in that respect.ESPN park effects show that Camden Yards was the easiest park in all of baseball to hit home runs in 2008.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2008

[Miller192]

It's a fair analysis. Of course, anyone we were looking to sign who's not, essentially, Kevin Brown circa 1995 would be a bad signing: we need guys with good K-rates and high GB rates, ideally.

On the other hand, the alternatives would all suffer the same obstacles, and Uehara is, at least, a professional, with good command.

Maybe at Petco, he's a 3.70 ERA guy and here he's at 4.50 or so. We still win at the cost. With the added benefit of market entry.

I think Law isn't criticizing the signing, rather than just saying that it's not an ideal profile fit.

That's how I read it, I didn't think he was too critical.

Relax, folks

[byrdz]

ESPN park effects show that Camden Yards was the easiest park in all of baseball to hit home runs in 2008.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2008

We also had some of the worse pitching last season so maybe it has more to do with our terrible pitchers then our ballpark. Also, even if Camden the easiest place to launch bombs is it much worse than Japanese ballparks?

[TCAlumni9700]

ESPN park effects show that Camden Yards was the easiest park in all of baseball to hit home runs in 2008.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2008

Bradford even gave up a couple this year didn't he?

[Frobby]

ESPN park effects show that Camden Yards was the easiest park in all of baseball to hit home runs in 2008.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2008

You beat me to the punch. OPACY also was 4th in 2007. There has been a significant uptick in its HR tendencies since the giant hotel structure was built across the street, which clearly has altered the wind patterns at OPACY.

[El Gordo]

That's how I read it, I didn't think he was too critical.

Relax, folksGiven the cost who would be the ideal fit? IMO Looper would be if he accepted 2 years or less. But who else? Sheets is expensive and risky and questionable to help us when we are ready to contend. Same for Lowe. Same for Burnett.

[Oriol3s]

I think the title of Law's article is mis-titled.

Uehara fills a big need for the Orioles, for the reasons many posters cited above - strike-throwing guy who should give us 150+ innings.

The problem, as discussed by Law, is that the O's play in a homer-friendly park and have to play some of the best lineups in baseball for 60+ games each year. This will casue Uehara's numbers to look worse than they might have if her signed with a team in a bigger ballpark or weaker division.

So, Law's article should't say that Uehara is not the "best fit" for O's, rather, it should REALLY read: O's not "best-fit" for Uehara.

[Miller192]

Given the cost who would be the ideal fit? IMO Looper would be if he accepted 2 years or less. But who else? Sheets is expensive and risky and questionable to help us when we are ready to contend. Same for Lowe. Same for Burnett.

Well, you can almost say that about any Oriole on the roster right now couldn't you? I mean, how are we defining "ideal fit?"

I don't have a problem with the signing. In fact, I'm starting to warm up to it a little more after reading some of Drungo's stuff.

I just don't think Keith Law's analysis was overly critical that's all.

[Lucky Jim]

We also had some of the worse pitching last season so maybe it has more to do with our terrible pitchers then our ballpark. Also, even if Camden the easiest place to launch bombs is it much worse than Japanese ballparks?

Park factor for home runs is controlled for the home team's performance. Our pitching doesn't have an effect on it.

[JTrea81]

Bruce Chen was also longball prone and he did fine at OPACY for his first full season as an Oriole starter.

It's a concern, but as long as he doesn't allow baserunners via the BB, solo HRs aren't going to kill him...

[Enjoy Terror]

Uehara may give up some homeruns, but he won't walk anybody.

There is no difference between giving up 4 home runs and walking three people onto base and then giving up one home run. If Uehara's home run totals are more than any of our other pitchers, I'm willing to bet that more often than not it's a solo shot, and he'll keep us in the game.

[Lucky Jim]

Bruce Chen was also longball prone and he did fine at OPACY for his first full season as an Oriole starter.

It's a concern, but as long as he doesn't allow baserunners via the BB, solo HRs aren't going to kill him...

If you're using Bruce Chen as a example of why this might be okay, you're basically saying that Andy MacPhail is pointing a gun with a $10m bullet at his own head. I expect more than that.

Chen got lucky. Here's hoping we're not getting by with luck with Uehara.

[Enjoy Terror]

If you're using Bruce Chen as a example of why this might be okay, you're basically saying that Andy MacPhail is pointing a gun with a $10m bullet at his own head. I expect more than that.

Chen got lucky. Here's hoping we're not getting by with luck with Uehara.

Chen got lucky? I understand that "luck" is a part of your name, but over the course of a season, and even moreso over a couple seasons, luck has very little to do with success as a pitcher. You either have it or you don't. Chris Waters may have got lucky with the Angels. Bruce Chen was just plain old good to warrant a 3.83ERA over 32 starts.

[Eight]

Do we really have any idea that certain (types of) pitchers will be more successful in certain places/situations than in others?

Of course Uehara will have a higher ERA in Baltimore than in San Diego. But once we adjust for everything that we can or should - park, league, strength of schedule, etc. - that his value will be any different in Baltimore as opposed to San Diego or Colorado or Oakland?

Seems more like psuedo-analysis than anything substantive from Law.

[olehippi]

Law pretty much mirrors my thoughts in another thread....that Uehara (soon to be pronounced "Oh the horror") will get lit up like the 4th of July by MiL hitters.

[Frobby]

Anybody who sees this article as "trashing the O's" is paranoid. Everything Law says about the HR tendencies of Uehara and OPACY is fair comment. My only nitpick is that his comment that Uehera will have to face strong lineups so many times would be true of any pitcher we signed.

At least most of the HRs he allows should be solos. In DCab's case, he didn't allow HRs that often over the course of his career (88 HR in 5 years), but 49% of them came with runners on base and 23% of them were either 3-run jacks or grand slams. By contrast, Jeremy Guthrie is fairly HR prone (52 in 2+ major league seasons), but only 31% have come with runners on base and only 8% have been three run HRs or grand slams.

[Lucky Jim]

Chen got lucky? I understand that "luck" is a part of your name, but over the course of a season, and even moreso over a couple seasons, luck has very little to do with success as a pitcher. You either have it or you don't. Chris Waters may have got lucky with the Angels. Bruce Chen was just plain old good to warrant a 3.83ERA over 32 starts.

It's okay that you feel this way. I really have no problem with you deviating from years and years of studied analysis (by others) of this issue. Seriously. But I wouldn't be so emphatic. The next thing you know, you'll be calling others ignorant for saying OPACY is HR-friendly. ;)

[wildcard]

Uehara will have about 6 weeks to figure it out. The Yard plays pretty big is cooler weather. Sometimes the ball gets really wacked and its just a fly ball out during April and the first part of May. Then warm weather arrives and the hotter it gets the more the ball fly out of the park. Sept marks the return of the cooler whether and the ball loses its rabbit effect.

So if Uehara can figure out the league in the first 6 weeks, he should have a good year.

[Fan4Life]

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

[Enjoy Terror]

It's okay that you feel this way. I really have no problem with you deviating from years and years of studied analysis (by others) of this issue. Seriously. But I wouldn't be so emphatic. The next thing you know, you'll be calling others ignorant for saying OPACY is HR-friendly. ;)

You are talking down to me; it's not appreciated.

[Lucky Jim]

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

Which is fine. Because, by all accounts, Uehara is precise.

[El Gordo]

Well, you can almost say that about any Oriole on the roster right now couldn't you? I mean, how are we defining "ideal fit?"

I don't have a problem with the signing. In fact, I'm starting to warm up to it a little more after reading some of Drungo's stuff.

I just don't think Keith Law's analysis was overly critical that's all.

We're talking about the ideal fit for a FA signing. What is Law's definition since that is his criteria for criticsizing this signing? My criteria, gven the O's need for short term SP to fillout gaps in the rotation until younger SP's mature would be 180+ innings at sub 5.00 ERA and two years or less for less than $8 mm per. So who would fit these criteria better than Uehara?

[RShack]

I think the title of Law's article is mis-titled.

Uehara fills a big need for the Orioles, for the reasons many posters cited above - strike-throwing guy who should give us 150+ innings.

The problem, as discussed by Law, is that the O's play in a homer-friendly park and have to play some of the best lineups in baseball for 60+ games each year. This will casue Uehara's numbers to look worse than they might have if her signed with a team in a bigger ballpark or weaker division.

So, Law's article should't say that Uehara is not the "best fit" for O's, rather, it should REALLY read: O's not "best-fit" for Uehara.
Yep. They got the headline backwards.
On the other hand, if Uehara has decided that he's coming here to prove something, then maybe he picked the best place for that.
If he does well, there will be no way to explain it away...

[Lucky Jim]

You are talking down to me; it's not appreciated.

I was joking. I'm not talking down to you. You just stated - flatly, declaratively - that luck does not exist over the course of a season.

There are tons of guys out there who specialize in this stuff and who disagree with you. I'd imagine that 1970 and Drungo would disagree with you.

If you want to say that it's not luck, but that it's not a skill that's repeatable or sustainable, that's fine. That's a semantic argument.

But before you start glibly writing off years of FIP and xFIP and other kinds of data, you should think twice. Like I said, you don't have to believe that it's accurate, or that luck plays a significant role. But it's not an idea that can be tossed away as if irrelevant, unstudied, or unsubstantiated.

[NCRaven]

Law pretty much mirrors my thoughts in another thread....that Uehara (soon to be pronounced "Oh the horror") will get lit up like the 4th of July by MiL hitters.


Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

Law didn't say either of these things. He just said that Uehara's style isn't a perfect match for Camden Yards. That's the only point he made in his post. 99% of ML pitchers have to have command of their pitches to be successful. Very few can just throw the ball and get by. One of Uehara's best trait's is that he commands all of his pitches and has good movement on most of them. That gives him a far better chance to succeed than any of the less successful Japanese imports - as law clearly pointed out - and Olson, unless Garrett gets it together and starts throwing strikes at the ML level.

[JTrea81]

You beat me to the punch. OPACY also was 4th in 2007. There has been a significant uptick in its HR tendencies since the giant hotel structure was built across the street, which clearly has altered the wind patterns at OPACY.

Yeah, Luke almost hit the warehouse twice and each time the ball hit the warehouse on the bounce off of Eutaw St.

Somebody like Dunn is going to hit the Warehouse eventually, perhaps as soon as this season...

[Lucky Jim]

Yeah, Luke almost hit the warehouse twice and each time the ball hit the warehouse on the bounce off of Eutaw St.

Somebody like Dunn is going to hit the Warehouse eventually, perhaps as soon as this season...

I'm pretty sure that's not the most accurate way to measure whether a ballpark is HR friendly.

[Frobby]

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

Uehara's stuff probably is fairly comparable to Olson's. His command is far superior.

[RShack]

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.
No, he describes Uehara as having been the guy who Olson is trying to be.
What we don't know yet is whether Uehara can still be that guy.
One way to find out...

ps: If he shows that he's still that guy, I bet Olson starts learning how to listen in Japanese ;-)

[JTrea81]

I'm pretty sure that's not the most accurate way to measure whether a ballpark is HR friendly.

It's a way to determine how the wind patterns have changed though. Before balls would hardly make it past the fence on to Eutaw St. I know Luke has power, but I don't think those balls travel as far as they did before the hotel went up...

The wind used to pass between OPACY and the Warehouse and act as a wind tunnel blowing the balls down, well now the wind is mostly blocked by the Hilton so balls will travel further when hit in the air...

[trueoriolesfan]

Well, he's not the best fit, and Camden Yards isn't the best fit for his style either.

But, he should do well enough, which is all he needs to do for $10M guaranteed over 2 years.
I could not agree we really got a good deal with him only 2 years and $5M each year thats good.

[El Gordo]

It's a way to determine how the wind patterns have changed though. Before balls would hardly make it past the fence on to Eutaw St. I know Luke has power, but I don't think those balls travel as far as they did before the hotel went up...

The wind used to pass between OPACY and the Warehouse and act as a wind tunnel blowing the balls down, well now the wind is mostly blocked by the Hilton so balls will travel further when hit in the air...How can you tell all this from Maine?:laughlol:

[byrdz]

Park factor for home runs is controlled for the home team's performance. Our pitching doesn't have an effect on it.

Ok, I see how it works, they are (in simplified terms) dividing home HR's by road HR's and the greater the number the more prone your home park is to giving up home runs.

I see the importance in having a pitcher less prone to the HR but this stat works for both sides.

96 HR's by our side last season
108 HR's by the other teams visiting

Getting rid of DCab alone (16 HR's at home) puts the visiting teams at 92 HR's, all other things being equal. As long as we're hitting HR's more frequently than the competition in our own park I'm happy.

[RShack]

I forget where I saw it, but somebody said the diff between Uehara and Dice-K is like the diff between Japanese versions of Maddux and Pedro.
So, if you're in a mood to be optimistic, you might wanna ask yourself which one of Maddux and Pedro stayed good longer...

[Ruzious]

Which is fine. Because, by all accounts, Uehara is precise.
Yeah, that's the thing that confused me. Law alluded to his great command, and yet he basically ignored that in his conclusion. A lot of people do that - they do a good job of gathering the pertinent facts, but when it comes to drawing a conclusion - some of those facts get lost.

[rochester]

Understood. But they don't mention us at all, until we do something they don't like. Ridiculous.

Not sure I agree... Law has been fair with us IMO and I do not necessarily disagree with his analysis. But then again I am going by scouting reports not live but outside of him being our first Japanese pick up I am not overly thrilled except for the low BB rate

[vatech1994]

right handed, 6' ish, slim, fastball with not a lot of sink in the upper eighties, good splitter, OK slider, good control/command

Hmmmmm

Substitute "curve" for "slider" and you could be describing Trachsel before he lost his last couple mph.

If Uehara throws 88-89 with very good command, he has a shot. If he throws 85-86 with very good command, I don't like his chances. The split won't get swung at much regardless of how good it is if the hitters aren't concerned about getting beat by the fastball.

[JTrea81]

How can you tell all this from Maine?:laughlol:

I've been to OPACY several times including taking a guided tour. I've also reasearched it a ton, due to the modding I do for MVP 2005 for the PC. I know more about OPACY than some people that live right there in Maryland...

I also follow the Gameday highlights and saw all the HRs fly out of that park last season...

[Fan4Life]

No, he describes Uehara as having been the guy who Olson is trying to be.


Thanks... I would put it this way also...

[Lucky Jim]

It's a way to determine how the wind patterns have changed though. Before balls would hardly make it past the fence on to Eutaw St. I know Luke has power, but I don't think those balls travel as far as they did before the hotel went up...

The wind used to pass between OPACY and the Warehouse and act as a wind tunner blowing the balls down, well now the wind is mostly blocked by the Hilton so balls will travel further when hit in the air...

Luke also hit the longest HR I've seen an Oriole hit in Yankee Stadium. The fact is, Scott has the best pure LH'd power the Orioles have had in a long time. In fact, he led the AL in no-doubt HRs last year (and half of his HRs came on the road last year). Now, I can't segregate his "no-doubt" HRs along Home/Road lines, but his power looks pretty comparable in both settings. And the Yankee HR was, at 448 ft, his longest.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_4326&type=hitter

You've got to be careful with those tricky causation/correlation issues.

[RShack]

I forget where I saw it, but somebody said the diff between Uehara and Dice-K is like the diff between Japanese versions of Maddux and Pedro.
So, if you're in a mood to be optimistic, you might wanna ask yourself which one of Maddux and Pedro stayed good longer...


right handed, 6' ish, slim, fastball with not a lot of sink in the upper eighties, good splitter, OK slider, good control/command

Hmmmmm

Substitute "curve" for "slider" and you could be describing Trachsel before he lost his last couple mph.
Or, if you're in a mood to be not optimistic, you could compare Uehara to Trachsel ;-)

ps: Dunno why you'd compare his track record to Trachsel's though.

[byrdz]

right handed, 6' ish, slim, fastball with not a lot of sink in the upper eighties, good splitter, OK slider, good control/command

Hmmmmm

Substitute "curve" for "slider" and you could be describing Trachsel before he lost his last couple mph.

If Uehara throws 88-89 with very good command, he has a shot. If he throws 85-86 with very good command, I don't like his chances. The split won't get swung at much regardless of how good it is if the hitters aren't concerned about getting beat by the fastball.

He also has a devastating forkball apparently, his bread and butter pitch.

[Enjoy Terror]

I was joking. I'm not talking down to you. You just stated - flatly, declaratively - that luck does not exist over the course of a season.

There are tons of guys out there who specialize in this stuff and who disagree with you. I'd imagine that 1970 and Drungo would disagree with you.

If you want to say that it's not luck, but that it's not a skill that's repeatable or sustainable, that's fine. That's a semantic argument.

But before you start glibly writing off years of FIP and xFIP and other kinds of data, you should think twice. Like I said, you don't have to believe that it's accurate, or that luck plays a significant role. But it's not an idea that can be tossed away as if irrelevant, unstudied, or unsubstantiated.

Your "luck" comment seems to be implying that his ERA was low but his FIP was wildly inconsistent meaning that he beat the odds in a big way to be better than actually was. His FIP and ERA were roughly consistent with his career totals, but it was without a doubt one of the best years-- if not THE best-- of his career. "Luck", in the FIP context, didn't have much more to do with his success in 2005 than it did in any other of his seasons.

[wildcard]

A fair comparison for Uehara is Kuroda. Kuroda plays in a bigger park for the Dodgers but he was almost as good away as he was a home. Maybe we can evaluate the results as Uehara's stat will be a little higher but not that much.

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=uehara
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/K/Hiroki-Kuroda.shtml

[rochester]

Or, if you're in a mood to be not optimistic, you could compare Uehara to Trachsel ;-)

ps: Dunno why you'd compare his track record to Trachsel's though.


Trachsel may be a little much (a little) but I agree with VAtech on this, he was just more informative as usual.

[CrimsonTribe]

right handed, 6' ish, slim, fastball with not a lot of sink in the upper eighties, good splitter, OK slider, good control/command

Hmmmmm

Substitute "curve" for "slider" and you could be describing Trachsel before he lost his last couple mph.

If Uehara throws 88-89 with very good command, he has a shot. If he throws 85-86 with very good command, I don't like his chances. The split won't get swung at much regardless of how good it is if the hitters aren't concerned about getting beat by the fastball.

To be fair, Trax never had the type of control that Uehara supposedly possesses. I see the point you're making though.

[NewMarketSean]

I guess Keith Law wants us to sign better pitchers than Uehara, which means the very best pitchers available, which means lots and lots of money. But then what will Buster Olney say about us??? Those expensive players arent a match for us either!

We need pitchers who can throw strikes, PERIOD. Hopefully the inevitable HR's will be the solo variety.

[Lucky Jim]

Your "luck" comment seems to be implying that his ERA was low but his FIP was wildly inconsistent meaning that he beat the odds in a big way to be better than actually was. His FIP and ERA were roughly consistent with his career totals, but it was without a doubt one of the best years-- if not THE best-- of his career. "Luck", in the FIP context, didn't have much more to do with his success in 2005 than it did in any other of his seasons.

But it's not just that. Look at his BABIP against (in spite of a high LD%), his HR/FB, a LOB % that approached 80%, etc.

Everything screamed "anomaly." Like I said, if you want to say he was simply better that year for some inexplicable reason, that's fine. But to outright dismiss "luck" (or something like it) as a component of his success that year is disregarding a lot, I think.

There is nothing consistent about Bruce Chen's career, btw. It's all over the place. I'm not sure how to explain it.

But if he was good in 2006, then what happened over the offseason? 28 HRs in 98 innings in 2007? Eek.

[JTrea81]

But it's not just that. Look at his BABIP against (in spite of a high LD%), his HR/FB, a LOB % that approached 80%, etc.

Everything screamed "anomaly." Like I said, if you want to say he was simply better that year for some inexplicable reason, that's fine. But to outright dismiss "luck" (or something like it) as a component of his success that year is disregarding a lot, I think.

There is nothing consistent about Bruce Chen's career, btw. It's all over the place. I'm not sure how to explain it.

But if he was good in 2006, then what happened over the offseason? 28 HRs in 98 innings in 2007? Eek.

I think you meant 2005 and 2006. Mazzone came into the picture in 2006 and Miller was the PC in 2005. I think it was McCall that did something with Chen that made him pitch well at the end of 2004 into 2005 where Miller sustained it. I think Chen and Mazzone never saw eye to eye in Atlanta, so that's why he struggled in 2006 IMO...

[Mackus]

Understood. But they don't mention us at all, until we do something they don't like. Ridiculous.Are they supposed to mention us when we're not doing anything?

Is it ridiculous that there is no article about the Colorado Rockies on ESPN's front page right now?

This ridiculous notion that ESPN or, even better, "the media" has a vendetta against Baltimore is hysterical.

[Lucky Jim]

I think you meant 2005 and 2006. Mazzone came into the picture in 2006 and Miller was the PC in 2005. I think it was McCall that did something with Chen that made him pitch well at the end of 2004 into 2005 where Miller sustained it. I think Chen and Mazzone never saw eye to eye in Atlanta, so that's why he struggled in 2006 IMO...

Sorry - yes, change those years. Please. ;)

But do you really think pitching coaches are the difference between Chen's .268 BABIP and a .344 BABIP in back-to-back years?

There's a simpler - or at least more logical - explanation, I think.

[JTrea81]

Sorry - yes, change those years. Please. ;)

But do you really think pitching coaches are the difference between Chen's .268 BABIP and a .344 BABIP in back-to-back years?

There's a simpler - or at least more logical - explanation, I think.

From 2005 (http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050507&content_id=1042006&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal):


When the Orioles acquired Chen from Toronto's Triple-A Syracuse team in May 2004, pitching coach Ray Miller immediately asked Ottawa coaches to have Chen begin using a changeup.

He learned quickly, and that single pitch is probably the reason he has had success in the Major Leagues. Chen was known for having a blazing fastball when he broke into the Majors with Atlanta, but he lost some velocity on that pitch over the years and teams lost interest in a two-pitch pitcher.

An article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/04/AR2006050402222.html) after one of Chen's starts in 2006:


"It's all location," Orioles pitching coach Leo Mazzone said. "He had a chance to make pitches tonight to get guys out and he didn't make the pitches."

Perhaps it would be easy to solve Chen's problem if it were just one particular pitch that floated across the plate. But that is not so.

"It's basically the whole package he brings," Mazzone said.

To fix Chen, Mazzone said it was necessary to head to the bullpen and basically "start all over."

[Lucky Jim]

From 2005 (http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050507&content_id=1042006&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal):



An article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/04/AR2006050402222.html) after one of Chen's starts:

That proves nothing to me, JT. Seriously. For me, the reason Chen struggled was that he had fringe-y stuff and not enough command to survive.

Anecdotal stuff like that is a lot more illuminating than the numbers themselves, I think.

That's just my opinion, though.

[jiminnj]

This statement of Law's I wonder about

"The signing also means Uehara has to face two of the best offenses in baseball, the Yankees' and Boston's, eight to 10 times;"

Are the Yankees really one of the best offenses in baseball????

Last year the Yankees were 7th in the AL in runs scored. They were an average AL offensive team. They scored exactly 7 runs more than the Os over the whole year. They were not a good offensive team last year, again they were an average offensive team.

They lost Giambi and Abreu off of that team, players who put up the 2nd and 3rd best OPSs for the 2008 Yankees.

They replaced them with Texiera and Swisher, overall about a wash.

Much of the rest of the lineup is getting old, Posada turns 38 this season,
Jeter, Matsui, and Damon are all 35 this season, and Arod turns 34. With aging players you can expect declining production and an increase in injuries. Jeter's OPS has dropped 60 to 70 points in each of the last two seasons. He has turned into a singles hitter with little power and few XBHs, what you would expect with aging.

Is this really going to be one of the best offensive teams in the AL? Probably not, it will probably be an average one again.

I worry about our pitchers having to face the Red Sox's lineup, but not necessarily the Yankees. The Yankees lineup is filled with big name players, but many of these guys are getting old and it is showing.

[MarkF]

It appears to me that this discussion has to do with ballpark factors. Is Camden Yards a worse place to play for a fly ball pitcher than other parks? ESPN seems to think so.

I have always felt that ballpark factors were among the least reliable statistics in baseball. There are so many variables that eliminating all but the park itself is nearly impossible IMO.

To that end, I went to ESPN's ballpark factor data and compared the home run factors from 2001 through 2008 for Camden Yards vs. the Metrodome in Minneapolis. I picked the Metrodome because I remember that when Camden Yards was designed, urban legend had it that the field demensions were based on the Metrodome because Cal Ripken had great numbers in Minneapolis. :) True or not, the Dome is similar to Camden Yards in that the RF and LF walls are nearly flat and are close to the same distance from the plate.

So, here is (are?) the data for the years 2001 through 2008 -

Oriole Park is listed first, Dome second.

A factor of 1.000 means that the park is neutral with respect to home runs. Above 1.000 implies a home run park, under 1.000 the opposite.

Then I have listed the rank among the teams. This number can be above 30 since sometimes teams open new parks during the year.

So, here goes:

2008: OPACY: 1.359/#1 (!!!) - DOME: .896/21
2007: 1.228/4 - .751/26
2006: 1.184/8 - .390/32
2005: .952/17 - .955/16
2004: 1.050/12 - .988/16
2003: 1.036/14 - 1.032/15
2002: 1.207/10 - 1.175/12
2001: .875/29 - .864/30

Based on these numbers, one might conclude that the Metrodome is SOMEWHAT less a flyball park than Camden Yards. But, because the figures jump around so much, a more logical conclusion is that the data means nothing and anyone who relied on it should do so at his (or her) own risk. During most of these years the Twins made the playoffs and, as we well know, the Orioles did not. Just maybe that has more to so with hone runs as the dimensions of the park.

Whaddya think?

I think Uehara shouldn't worry about the park, only about throwing quality pitches. And ESPN should be a bit more analytical if they expect to be the most reliable source of baseball opinion.

[JBugaboo]

HRs can be given up by anybody in Camden Yards, home or road team. Solo HRs don't tend to hurt you in today's game. Walks have been the biggest problem our pitching staff has faced over the past few years.

Curt Schilling made a living giving up solo HRs and he's a borderline HOFer. Our own Jeremy Guthrie is like that too.

[Runs2the1Show]

Are they supposed to mention us when we're not doing anything?

Is it ridiculous that there is no article about the Colorado Rockies on ESPN's front page right now?

This ridiculous notion that ESPN or, even better, "the media" has a vendetta against Baltimore is hysterical.

I agree, Mackus. Good post.

ESPN doesn't talk about us because we don't win, not because they "hate" us. ESPN covers the teams that the people want to hear about, in most cases the Red Sox, Yankees, Cowboys, any of those teams. Those teams have a large fan base, fair-weather or not, and it's the world wide leader in sports to cover them to the fullest extent.

The Orioles don't command the type of fan base that these other teams do, thus we are not oft-discussed. Once we begin to win, more fair-weathers begin to make their way to the park, ESPN will talk about us.

Pretty soon most of us will be complain about how we can't get playoff tickets becasue the bandwagoners bought them all.

[bird watcher]

Park factor for home runs is controlled for the home team's performance. Our pitching doesn't have an effect on it.

Is it controlled for the away teams performance? I mean we do see the Yankees and Redsox who hit a few HR.

In other words.. Did the Yankees hit more HR on average in OPACY than in other parks? The Red Sox? Blue Jays? All or most of the other teams that played here?

[RShack]

That proves nothing to me, JT. Seriously. For me, the reason Chen struggled was that he had fringe-y stuff and not enough command to survive.

Anecdotal stuff like that is a lot more illuminating than the numbers themselves, I think.

That's just my opinion, though.
I agree with JTrea on this one.
Leo and Chen were a horrible match.
I was happey when Leo came to Balt but, having watched the 2 of them in ATL, I was very worried about what it meant for Chen.
Leo did well with P's who fit the profile he believed in. Chen didn't.
Plus, when umps quit calling strikes for pitches low and 4 inches outside, it hurt the Leo philosophy in general.

[stomperspc]

I guess Keith Law wants us to sign better pitchers than Uehara, which means the very best pitchers available, which means lots and lots of money. But then what will Buster Olney say about us??? Those expensive players arent a match for us either!

We need pitchers who can throw strikes, PERIOD. Hopefully the inevitable HR's will be the solo variety.

Exactly.

It's not like his points about Uehara letting up a lot of homeruns and how that could be a potential problem playing for the O's aren't at least somewhat valid. Its the notion that we shouldn't sign a pitcher who might pose a problem. Like NMS said, we are supposed to sign pitchers better than him, but at the same time, we shouldn't sign the big name free agents because we are "too far away from competing".

The bottom line is, we need pitchers who can get the ball over the plate. Uehara, at least compared to the other free agent stopgap options, is a bit of an unknown and has an upside. We weren't going to sign any of the top pitchers on the market because they either didn't want to come here, were too expensive, wanted too many years, or some combination of all three. We needed someone to pitch and Uehara seems like one of the best options. If he isn't the "right fit", what pitcher is?

[Three Run Homer]

If you read the comments after the original post, Law clarifies his logic further. Basically what he is trying to say is that given the ballpark and the quality of competition in the AL East, the O's need pitchers with really good stuff who have a margin for error, as opposed to pitchers who need pinpoint control because their stuff isn't so great. He argues that the O's should either spend big bucks to get pitchers with really good stuff, or just give up and go with a cheap staff if they don't have any visions of contending.

I can see his point, but I do think there is a difference between losing 85-90 games and losing over 100 games. If the O's didn't spend a time on starting pitching over the offseason, I think they were looking at losing over 100 games, given how poorly all of their holdover starters not named Guthrie performed last season and given that their better pitching prospects are likely a year or more away.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree with JTrea on this one.
Leo and Chen were a horrible match.
I was happey when Leo came to Balt but, having watched the 2 of them in ATL, I was very worried about what it meant for Chen.
Leo did well with P's who fit the profile he believed in. Chen didn't.
Plus, when umps quit calling strikes for pitches low and 4 inches outside, it hurt the Leo philosophy in general.

I'm not saying that it had no effect. I'm saying that it's not the explanation for why Chen went from a mid-rotation 3.80 ERA to an ERA over 6.00.

The answer, rather than "Mazzone" would appear to be that he was neither a 3.80 guy or a 6.00 guy. (Though his FIP in 2005 was 4.9 and in 2006 over 6.)Instead, he was somewhere around a 5.00 guy with little room for error. As suggested by his lifetime FIP was 5.10.

[Frobby]

This statement of Law's I wonder about

"The signing also means Uehara has to face two of the best offenses in baseball, the Yankees' and Boston's, eight to 10 times;"

Are the Yankees really one of the best offenses in baseball????

Last year the Yankees were 7th in the AL in runs scored. They were an average AL offensive team. They scored exactly 7 runs more than the Os over the whole year. They were not a good offensive team last year, again they were an average offensive team.

They lost Giambi and Abreu off of that team, players who put up the 2nd and 3rd best OPSs for the 2008 Yankees.

They replaced them with Texiera and Swisher, overall about a wash.

Much of the rest of the lineup is getting old, Posada turns 38 this season,
Jeter, Matsui, and Damon are all 35 this season, and Arod turns 34. With aging players you can expect declining production and an increase in injuries. Jeter's OPS has dropped 60 to 70 points in each of the last two seasons. He has turned into a singles hitter with little power and few XBHs, what you would expect with aging.

Is this really going to be one of the best offensive teams in the AL? Probably not, it will probably be an average one again.

I worry about our pitchers having to face the Red Sox's lineup, but not necessarily the Yankees. The Yankees lineup is filled with big name players, but many of these guys are getting old and it is showing.

You make great points here. But, last year may just have been a down year. And every argument you make about the Yankees' offensive decline could be reversed to explain why Tampa's offense is just going to get better and better given the relative youth of that team. So on net the AL East remains a big challenge for Baltimore pitchers.

[ledzepp8]

Are they supposed to mention us when we're not doing anything?

Is it ridiculous that there is no article about the Colorado Rockies on ESPN's front page right now?

This ridiculous notion that ESPN or, even better, "the media" has a vendetta against Baltimore is hysterical.

Look I agree that the ESPN whining gets a little exaggerated on here and I don't think they have a vendetta against anyone. But I also don't think they shy away from picking on teams who's names don't rhyme with Yankees or Red Sox.

[Enjoy Terror]

Everyone had extremely low expectations for 2008: "The Lost Season". Just like this year we had "Jeremy Guthrie". Loewen was supposed to be promising in his return, Trachsel would hold down the fort and eat innings, Cabrera was the work horse, and Burres was... well Burres was Burres.

Loewen was terrible. He started 4 games and got injured for the rest of the year.
Cabrera was the work horse: until he got injured, spent time on the DL, took a couple MPH off his fast ball, and lead the league in walks and wild pitches.
Trachsel didn't eat innings; he was out by the 4th in most of his starts and we canned him.
Burres was Burres.

We tried Olson, Liz and Albers. Both Liz and Olson had 6.50+ ERAs at the end of the year.
Albers was amazing; until he blew out his shoulder in his third start.

We started Sarfate out of the pen; he was absolutely horrible.
We traded for Bass and Simon, and they were just bandaids.

And yet, after all that crap... we still didn't lose 100 games.

Uehara may not be a great pitcher. Hendrickson may be the same way. But it takes a lot of crap to go absolutely wrong to knock this team out. And last year, we didn't have much to look forward to in AAA either. This year we've got Albers, Patton, Berken, Bergesen, Hernandez, Waters, Burres, and maybe even Chris Tillman on the back burner in case things go terribly terribly wrong.

Basically, I think the O's are going to be okay next year, and probably better than 2008.

[jiminnj]

You make great points here. But, last year may just have been a down year. And every argument you make about the Yankees' offensive decline could be reversed to explain why Tampa's offense is just going to get better and better given the relative youth of that team. So on net the AL East remains a big challenge for Baltimore pitchers.


Frobby, I agree Tampa Bay is likely to get better, but I am just tired of people always talking about the great offensive team the Yankees are. They were a great offensive team back in 2005-6, but they weren't last year and I do not think they are likely to be this year.

Overall last year the AL east was not filled with a bunch teams that were offensive beasts. The Red Sox were beasts, 2nd in the league in runs, but the Yankees -7th, Os -8th, Rays - 9th, and Jays -11th just were not offensive jugernauts. The AL east was not that tough a division to pitch in last year. I am not sure it will be much different this year.

The central division was much more problematic for pitchers last year. Minn, Det, Chicago, and Clev all scored over 800 runs (the Red Sox scored 845) and were 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th in the league in runs scored for the season.

[carolinaoriole]

Do the guys at ESPN ever give up trashing us? Are we supposed to go into 2009 with no one at all?

Link - http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3816434&name=law_keith

The only that espn is good at is broadcasting games.
Where do they find these guys.
They are always wrong about everything.

[TCAlumni9700]

Anybody who sees this article as "trashing the O's" is paranoid. Everything Law says about the HR tendencies of Uehara and OPACY is fair comment. My only nitpick is that his comment that Uehera will have to face strong lineups so many times would be true of any pitcher we signed.

At least most of the HRs he allows should be solos. In DCab's case, he didn't allow HRs that often over the course of his career (88 HR in 5 years), but 49% of them came with runners on base and 23% of them were either 3-run jacks or grand slams. By contrast, Jeremy Guthrie is fairly HR prone (52 in 2+ major league seasons), but only 31% have come with runners on base and only 8% have been three run HRs or grand slams.

I'm not paranoid Frobby, I get sick of those idiots in Bristol never saying anything but negative **** about us.

They say we should have never even put an offer out for Teixeira, then put us under the losers bracket (and the winners too).

It just gets annoying when all you hear is Sox and Yanks, blah blah blah, Cardinals and Cubs and Dodgers, blah blah blah.

We know our team sucks. We've known for almost 10 excruciating years now. But when our FO actually signs a decent pitcher, our first Asian signing at that, either say something nice or don't say anything at all. Didn't their mothers teach them any manners??? :D

[Osfan13]

Law isn't out of line here. Uehara is a finesse guy, not a power pitcher and has been nipped by the long ball in Japan. Camden is probably a smaller park compared to most Japanese parks (although I'm not certain about that) and he will be facing much tougher line-ups (I AM sure about that).

Bruce Chen had a long ball problem and he managed to lead our starters in ERA one year, a 3.83 or something like that before he bombed.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/bruce-chen.shtml

Bruce Chen's 2005 season would be a god-send to this staff. If Uehara can replicate something like that, he would be a good investment.

Note: I compare Chen and Uehara because both of them are finesse pitchers who induce alot of fly balls and needed to hit their spots to survive. Both were hit by the injury bug at various points and both spent time in the rotation and bullpen. I'm not saying he'll be a perfect comp and I'm not saying to bank on a 2005 Chen-esk production from him, but am I that far off on this early assumption? The only thing that Uehara has on Chen is a fewer walks.

Anybody?

[byrdz]

What difference does it make how homer friendly OPACY is when the O's hit about the same number as the competition? Obviously it would be better to hit more but the O's just need a bit more power is all or have the pitching improve just a bit more which shouldn't be hard considering last seasons showing. DCab gave up 16 HR's last season at OPACY, I doubt Uehara allows much more than that.

[Sports Guy]

Not sure why people jumped on Law here but I guess that is par for the course when the OH discusses ESPN...Keith Law has been on the Orioles side a lot lately, especially about the minor leaguers.

Uehera was a decent signing...A relative low risk signing...If all he ends up being is a good reliever, then he will be overpaid but it won't hurt us that much.

I expect him to eat 350-400 innings for a 4.6ish ERA if he can stay a starter...He won't be great but should justify the contract and provide us with a decent stop gap...Plus, he gets our foot in Asia, so that is good.

[El Gordo]

If you read the comments after the original post, Law clarifies his logic further. Basically what he is trying to say is that given the ballpark and the quality of competition in the AL East, the O's need pitchers with really good stuff who have a margin for error, as opposed to pitchers who need pinpoint control because their stuff isn't so great. He argues that the O's should either spend big bucks to get pitchers with really good stuff, or just give up and go with a cheap staff if they don't have any visions of contending.
I can see his point, but I do think there is a difference between losing 85-90 games and losing over 100 games. If the O's didn't spend a time on starting pitching over the offseason, I think they were looking at losing over 100 games, given how poorly all of their holdover starters not named Guthrie performed last season and given that their better pitching prospects are likely a year or more away.How is this inconsistent with signing Uehara? We would be stupid to spend on the SP who could be most effective in OPACY like CC, Lowe, maybe Sheets, or Garland.

[SilentJames]

Everyone had extremely low expectations for 2008: "The Lost Season". Just like this year we had "Jeremy Guthrie". Loewen was supposed to be promising in his return, Trachsel would hold down the fort and eat innings, Cabrera was the work horse, and Burres was... well Burres was Burres.

Loewen was terrible. He started 4 games and got injured for the rest of the year.
Cabrera was the work horse: until he got injured, spent time on the DL, took a couple MPH off his fast ball, and lead the league in walks and wild pitches.
Trachsel didn't eat innings; he was out by the 4th in most of his starts and we canned him.
Burres was Burres.

We tried Olson, Liz and Albers. Both Liz and Olson had 6.50+ ERAs at the end of the year.
Albers was amazing; until he blew out his shoulder in his third start.

We started Sarfate out of the pen; he was absolutely horrible.
We traded for Bass and Simon, and they were just bandaids.

And yet, after all that crap... we still didn't lose 100 games.

Uehara may not be a great pitcher. Hendrickson may be the same way. But it takes a lot of crap to go absolutely wrong to knock this team out. And last year, we didn't have much to look forward to in AAA either. This year we've got Albers, Patton, Berken, Bergesen, Hernandez, Waters, Burres, and maybe even Chris Tillman on the back burner in case things go terribly terribly wrong.

Basically, I think the O's are going to be okay next year, and probably better than 2008.

You have to be a special kind of bad to lose 100 games.

[SilentJames]

Not sure why people jumped on Law here but I guess that is par for the course when the OH discusses ESPN...Keith Law has been on the Orioles side a lot lately, especially about the minor leaguers.

Uehera was a decent signing...A relative low risk signing...If all he ends up being is a good reliever, then he will be overpaid but it won't hurt us that much.

I expect him to eat 350-400 innings for a 4.6ish ERA if he can stay a starter...He won't be great but should justify the contract and provide us with a decent stop gap...Plus, he gets our foot in Asia, so that is good.

The most important thing to me is his very low walk-rate. That can only be a good thing for us. Walks extend the inning and further tax the pen.

Plus, maybe the young pitchers can pick up a thing or two.

Low walks = good for us. His move to the pen is getting overblown, I really think there is something to the Giants banishing him because he was vocal about his desire to play in the USA.

[freethebirds]

Can I just say that for anyone who read the comments on this Keith Law article, I am "biz" who posted all those inflammatory things, somewhat facetiously.... although I did call ESPN "a worthless biased news source". Anyway, his argument is stupid. We should only go after pitchers with amazing stuff (cause theres SO many of those) since we have to face tough lineups.

[Osfan13]

Frobby, I agree Tampa Bay is likely to get better, but I am just tired of people always talking about the great offensive team the Yankees are. They were a great offensive team back in 2005-6, but they weren't last year and I do not think they are likely to be this year.

Overall last year the AL east was not filled with a bunch teams that were offensive beasts. The Red Sox were beasts, 2nd in the league in runs, but the Yankees -7th, Os -8th, Rays - 9th, and Jays -11th just were not offensive jugernauts. The AL east was not that tough a division to pitch in last year. I am not sure it will be much different this year.

The central division was much more problematic for pitchers last year. Minn, Det, Chicago, and Clev all scored over 800 runs (the Red Sox scored 845) and were 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th in the league in runs scored for the season.

This is an excellent analysis. However, it fails to explain our record against the AL East versus the rest of the league.

?

[El Gordo]

This is an excellent analysis. However, it fails to explain our record against the AL East versus the rest of the league.

?You don't need a great offense to beat a team with only one ML SP.:scratchchinhmm:

[Osfan13]

You don't need a great offense to beat a team with only one ML SP.:scratchchinhmm:

Why the disparity in W-L with the East versus the Central and West? You didn't answer my question, I'll help you out:

I wonder if the Orioles were overlooked to a degree by scouts in the AL West and AL Central. Just an idea off the top of my head.

[jiminnj]

This is an excellent analysis. However, it fails to explain our record against the AL East versus the rest of the league.

?

The answer lies in pitching. While we were an average offensive team (average in our division to) our pitching stunk while the rest of AL East had great pitching. Toronto allowed the least runs in the AL (610), TB was second allowing 671, Boston was fourth allowing 694, NY was sixth allowing 727, while we were 13th allowing 869 runs.


Other divisions had overall average pitching, West with Oak 3rd, LA 5th, Seattle 11th and Tex 14th, Central with the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 12th best teams in not allowing runs.

Our division is not a strong division because of the offensive prowless of the teams in it, it is a strong division because it has by far the best pitching in the AL.

The whole premise of Law's that our pitchers face such powerful offenses in our division is just plain wrong. Actually what should concern people is that new hitters are probably going to worse than expected in our division because they are facing such good pitching (hopefully this will apply to Texiera).

[DrungoHazewood]

Trachsel may be a little much (a little) but I agree with VAtech on this, he was just more informative as usual.

I think the Trachsel comp misses two key things: First, the splitter that others noted. Second, from about 2004-on Trachsel was a nibbler. He had pretty poor BB/9 rates, and K/BB ratios that quickly degraded to unacceptable.

Uehara's calling card is that he's a control artist. That year he was a closer he had four(!) walks in 60+ innings. His career walk rate is 1.19, or about 1/3 of Trachsel's. He never has had a single NPB season where he walked 30 batters.

Trachsel's last season in the majors he nearly topped Uehara's single season high for walks in 39 innings.

[Fan4Life]

The most important thing to me is his very low walk-rate. That can only be a good thing for us. Walks extend the inning and further tax the pen.

Plus, maybe the young pitchers can pick up a thing or two.

Low walks = good for us. His move to the pen is getting overblown, I really think there is something to the Giants banishing him because he was vocal about his desire to play in the USA.

This is interesting. At what point do you look at a pitchers career and decide he just doesn't have good control? For example, is it possible for a pitcher coming into the draft with great stuff, but a Collegiate and High School career averaging 6-7 walks per 9 innings to actually be able to turn this around at age 22-23? I suppose there are some instances where you tinker with a pitchers delivery etc, but for the most part, should you be drafting guys that need this level of tinkering with at that stage of their game?

[DrungoHazewood]

This is interesting. At what point do you look at a pitchers career and decide he just doesn't have good control? For example, is it possible for a pitcher coming into the draft with great stuff, but a Collegiate and High School career averaging 6-7 walks per 9 innings to actually be able to turn this around at age 22-23? I suppose there are some instances where you tinker with a pitchers delivery etc, but for the most part, should you be drafting guys that need this level of tinkering with at that stage of their game?

My opinion is that you can't expect dramatic improvement. Incremental improvement, maybe. There are always exceptions, some dramatic, but I've come around more and more to the idea that most pitchers are what they are by their early 20s. You can't count on outliers, and there are many more Mitch Willamses than Randy Johnsons.

[Fan4Life]

My opinion is that you can't expect dramatic improvement. Incremental improvement, maybe. There are always exceptions, some dramatic, but I've come around more and more to the idea that most pitchers are what they are by their early 20s. You can't count on outliers, and there are many more Mitch Willamses than Randy Johnsons.

I have to agree with your conclusions which puzzle me somewhat in that many, if not most (Matusz aside), of our young pitchers with a lot of upside have issue with BB's. Without looking through their careers to determine if this was a foreseeable outcome, it appears that the O's drafting has placed to much emphasis on outliers. We have 10-12 quality pitching prospects in our system, I wonder how many of them average 4 or less walks per 9 innings?

[Frobby]

The answer lies in pitching. While we were an average offensive team (average in our division to) our pitching stunk while the rest of AL East had great pitching. Toronto allowed the least runs in the AL (610), TB was second allowing 671, Boston was fourth allowing 694, NY was sixth allowing 727, while we were 13th allowing 869 runs.

Other divisions had overall average pitching, West with Oak 3rd, LA 5th, Seattle 11th and Tex 14th, Central with the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 12th best teams in not allowing runs.

Our division is not a strong division because of the offensive prowless of the teams in it, it is a strong division because it has by far the best pitching in the AL.

The whole premise of Law's that our pitchers face such powerful offenses in our division is just plain wrong. Actually what should concern people is that new hitters are probably going to worse than expected in our division because they are facing such good pitching (hopefully this will apply to Texiera).

I agree with your analysis of 2008. My only quibble would be that if you look at the last several years, not just 2008, then Law's point that AL East has good offenses becomes more valid. Certainly the Yankees were a juggernaut in 2007. And going forward, Tampa is likely to be a strong offensive club with the addition of Burrell, Crawford back healthy, maturation of Longoria and other young players, etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

I have to agree with your conclusions which puzzle me somewhat in that many, if not most (Matusz aside), of our young pitchers with a lot of upside have issue with BB's. Without looking through their careers to determine if this was a foreseeable outcome, it appears that the O's drafting has placed to much emphasis on outliers. We have 10-12 quality pitching prospects in our system, I wonder how many of them average 4 or less walks per 9 innings?

I don't think this is specifically an Orioles problem, although ours may be more serious than many others. Throughout history scouts have been enamored with big fastballs, often at the expense of everything else. Not too many years ago the Royals wasted a top-10 pick on a guy named Colt Griffin (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=21196) basically on the fact that he once hit 100 mph on a high school radar gun.

I think there will always be teams that look at ridiculous tools and figure it can't be that hard to teach someone to play baseball, right?

I have to believe that this is one of the things that analysis is having an impact on. Fewer and fewer teams will be willing to bet a high-round pick on someone who's 95% tools and 5% polish. The dumping of Cabrera, and signing of Uehara and Matusz might be a sign the O's are starting to move in the right direction.

[Frobby]

I think the Trachsel comp misses two key things: First, the splitter that others noted. Second, from about 2004-on Trachsel was a nibbler. He had pretty poor BB/9 rates, and K/BB ratios that quickly degraded to unacceptable.

Uehara's calling card is that he's a control artist. That year he was a closer he had four(!) walks in 60+ innings. His career walk rate is 1.19, or about 1/3 of Trachsel's. He never has had a single NPB season where he walked 30 batters.

Trachsel's last season in the majors he nearly topped Uehara's single season high for walks in 39 innings.

I love this about Uehara. I'm so-o-o-o ready to watch a pitcher who throws strikes and can paint the corners all day long. However, I suspect his BB rate may not be as good in the majors, because (1) the Japanese strike zone is bigger, and (2) as his high strikes get smacked around by major league hitters, he may tend to challenge hitters less than he did in Japan and try to do the "paint the corners" thing, which leads to more walks when you just miss. So I'm figuring his BB rate may be more like 2.00 in the majors, or maybe even 2.50.

From what I've read, Uehara literally hates to walk hitters. Should be interesting to see how he adjusts over here.

[Frobby]

I have to agree with your conclusions which puzzle me somewhat in that many, if not most (Matusz aside), of our young pitchers with a lot of upside have issue with BB's. Without looking through their careers to determine if this was a foreseeable outcome, it appears that the O's drafting has placed to much emphasis on outliers. We have 10-12 quality pitching prospects in our system, I wonder how many of them average 4 or less walks per 9 innings?

Arrieta 4.1 career, 4.1 in 2008
Bergesen 1.6 career, 1.6 in 2008
Berken 2.4 career, 2.3 in 2008
Britton 3.3 career, 3.0 in 2008
Erbe 3.8 career, 3.0 in 2008
Hernandez 3.9 career, 4.5 in 2008
Patton 2.6 career, DNP in 2008
Spoone 4.9 career, 5.9 in 2008
Tillman 4.4 career, 4.3 in 2008

We don't have minor league data on Matusz, but based on his college and AFL performance it's safe to predict he'll be under 4 BB/9, and quite possibly under 3 BB/9.

[Sports Guy]

I think the Trachsel comp misses two key things: First, the splitter that others noted. Second, from about 2004-on Trachsel was a nibbler. He had pretty poor BB/9 rates, and K/BB ratios that quickly degraded to unacceptable.

Uehara's calling card is that he's a control artist. That year he was a closer he had four(!) walks in 60+ innings. His career walk rate is 1.19, or about 1/3 of Trachsel's. He never has had a single NPB season where he walked 30 batters.

Trachsel's last season in the majors he nearly topped Uehara's single season high for walks in 39 innings.
What kind of rise in BB rate can we expect though?

[DrungoHazewood]

I love this about Uehara. I'm so-o-o-o ready to watch a pitcher who throws strikes and can paint the corners all day long. However, I suspect his BB rate may not be as good in the majors, because (1) the Japanese strike zone is bigger, and (2) as his high strikes get smacked around by major league hitters, he may tend to challenge hitters less than he did in Japan and try to do the "paint the corners" thing, which leads to more walks when you just miss. So I'm figuring his BB rate may be more like 2.00 in the majors, or maybe even 2.50.

From what I've read, Uehara literally hates to walk hitters. Should be interesting to see how he adjusts over here.


What kind of rise in BB rate can we expect though?

My guess is that Frobby is about right, but he might do better than that. Looking at the Japanese pitchers who've come over only Matsuzaka and Nomo seemed to really struggle at times with control. A lot of the relievers have had really good years as far as walks go - with 10 or 15 in 60 innings being pretty common. Kuroda walked 40-some batters in 180 innings.

We'll see, but I'd be very surprised if a guy known as an extreme control pitcher saw a huge jump in walk rate coming over here.

[Osfan13]

The answer lies in pitching. While we were an average offensive team (average in our division to) our pitching stunk while the rest of AL East had great pitching. Toronto allowed the least runs in the AL (610), TB was second allowing 671, Boston was fourth allowing 694, NY was sixth allowing 727, while we were 13th allowing 869 runs.


Other divisions had overall average pitching, West with Oak 3rd, LA 5th, Seattle 11th and Tex 14th, Central with the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 12th best teams in not allowing runs.

Our division is not a strong division because of the offensive prowless of the teams in it, it is a strong division because it has by far the best pitching in the AL.

The whole premise of Law's that our pitchers face such powerful offenses in our division is just plain wrong. Actually what should concern people is that new hitters are probably going to worse than expected in our division because they are facing such good pitching (hopefully this will apply to Texiera).

Again, excellent analysis. Thanks for responding!

[nadecir]

My guess is that Frobby is about right, but he might do better than that. Looking at the Japanese pitchers who've come over only Matsuzaka and Nomo seemed to really struggle at times with control. A lot of the relievers have had really good years as far as walks go - with 10 or 15 in 60 innings being pretty common. Kuroda walked 40-some batters in 180 innings.

We'll see, but I'd be very surprised if a guy known as an extreme control pitcher saw a huge jump in walk rate coming over here.You are forgetting about Kei Igawa here. Kei Igawa is one example of a very good pitcher in Japan, who has struggled very badly here.

In 2006 when Igawa was only 27 in Japan, Igawa walked only 49 batters in 209 innings. In the American League the past two seasons, Igawa has walked 37 batters in 71 and two-thirds innings while giving up 15 home runs. I am pretty sure no one expected Igawa to be this bad in the U.S. after how he pitched in Japan. Igawa has certainly struggled with his control in moving to the U.S.

[Fan4Life]

You are forgetting about Kei Igawa here. Kei Igawa is one example of a very good pitcher in Japan, who has struggled very badly here.

In 2006 when Igawa was only 27 in Japan, Igawa walked only 49 batters in 209 innings. In the American League the past two seasons, Igawa has walked 37 batters in 71 and two-thirds innings while giving up 15 home runs. I am pretty sure no one expected Igawa to be this bad in the U.S. after how he pitched in Japan. Igawa has certainly struggled with his control in moving to the U.S.

Our baseball is different, how you adjust to that probably is important. I wonder if the home plate dimensions are the same?

[byrdz]

Because of the park, the competition, and less than stellar stuff it is reasonable to say that 11% of flyballs allowed by Uehara will become HRs. That works out to 26 home runs allowed - at home. If he were to allow 240 flyballs to be hit against him, he'd have a HR/FB% of 6.7% - in other words he'd have to be pretty lucky.

We as fans need to hope that he fools the experts and becomes more of a groundball pitcher.

This scenario would be very bad, of course.

[Three Run Homer]

Everyone had extremely low expectations for 2008: "The Lost Season". Just like this year we had "Jeremy Guthrie". Loewen was supposed to be promising in his return, Trachsel would hold down the fort and eat innings, Cabrera was the work horse, and Burres was... well Burres was Burres.

Loewen was terrible. He started 4 games and got injured for the rest of the year.
Cabrera was the work horse: until he got injured, spent time on the DL, took a couple MPH off his fast ball, and lead the league in walks and wild pitches.
Trachsel didn't eat innings; he was out by the 4th in most of his starts and we canned him.
Burres was Burres.

We tried Olson, Liz and Albers. Both Liz and Olson had 6.50+ ERAs at the end of the year.
Albers was amazing; until he blew out his shoulder in his third start.

We started Sarfate out of the pen; he was absolutely horrible.
We traded for Bass and Simon, and they were just bandaids.

And yet, after all that crap... we still didn't lose 100 games.

Uehara may not be a great pitcher. Hendrickson may be the same way. But it takes a lot of crap to go absolutely wrong to knock this team out. And last year, we didn't have much to look forward to in AAA either. This year we've got Albers, Patton, Berken, Bergesen, Hernandez, Waters, Burres, and maybe even Chris Tillman on the back burner in case things go terribly terribly wrong.

Basically, I think the O's are going to be okay next year, and probably better than 2008.

People forget that Cabrera and Olson were actually quite decent starters for the first half of the season. We had a credible three man rotation and, not coincidentally, the team played winning baseball. Liz also was pretty good for his first few starts.

Then Cabrera, Olson and Liz fell apart, the bullpen was decimated by injuries, and the team went down in flames.

If the starting pitching in 2009 is as bad as it was the second half of 2008, we could absolutely lose 100 games, even with a healthier bullpen (and of course, the bullpen will get burned out pretty quickly if we have 3 or 4 starters going 5 innings or less every time through the rotation).

Uehara is not going to push this team into the playoffs, but I do think he will provide some stability to the rotation...if we can get one more starter that we can count on to be at least mediocre to go with Uehara and Guthrie, we can be a respectable team.

[byrdz]

Yeah, his walk rate is sure to go up as well. Maybe I'm wrong here but something tells me that he will be facing some of the most patient hitters he's ever seen.

[Andy_Dufresne]

Is Uehera the best available starting pitcher?
Why can't the Orioles sign the best? Don't Orioles fans deserve that after a last place finish?

[Tx Oriole]

What else do you expect coming from ESPN? They will knock the O's every chance they get. I think it is a good signing. He is a servicable pitcher which the O's can sure use and it opens up the Asian market for the O's. To me it is a win win situation.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is Uehera the best available starting pitcher?
Why can't the Orioles sign the best? Don't Orioles fans deserve that after a last place finish?

You have a pretty limited view of things. The O's went out and got a pretty high upside starter at blue light special prices, and your response is "why didn't they do any better?"

The Orioles didn't go spend $90M to lure Burnett away from the Yanks, or $200M for Sabathia, because there's no way the O's compete with the Yanks long-term by trying to outspend them on major league free agents. Not only that, but the wins either of those two would have added to the O's (say, pushing the team from 68 to 75 or something) aren't worth nearly what wins 87-93 are worth for the Yanks.

[wieters=nucleus]

Just read the first page but seriously people got to grow up and stop whining about the national media. Keith Law has had plenty to say about our prospects. (all positive) Too much whining.

[Brady9Fan]

I don't think he's intentionally trashing the O's, but more of *telling it like it is*. The tructh hurts...until Petey & AM make other moves or even legitimate attempts to make the team better, we will always be mocked. Why go out of yoru way to sign this Japanese pitcher when it doesn't seem like you even try to recruit decent players in the majors. I really don't understand the signing of Uehara...hopefully he is a good fit here, but I hate to see him wasted here if teh O's don't try to surround him with decent signings.

[wieters=nucleus]

I just hope he has a good neck, becuase I have a feeling he is going o be looking at a lot of balls hitting the warehouse.. He sounds like a worse version of Greg Maddux after maddux was done .

[stebs52]

I just hope he has a good neck, becuase I have a feeling he is going o be looking at a lot of balls hitting the warehouse.. He sounds like a worse version of Greg Maddux after maddux was done .

At least we didn't give him $48 million like that god awful fukudome contract, what a joke. Though if $48 million gets you a .379 SLG I'm a little scared what $10 million gets us.

[wieters=nucleus]

At least we didn't give him $48 million like that god awful fukudome contract, what a joke. Though if $48 million gets you a .379 SLG I'm a little scared what $10 million gets us.

Well the ay that Koji becomes an all star we will be lucky. Becuase either A) He will have deserved it or B) We will have as many fans as the Cubs do. Or attendance like they do.

[Pat Kelly]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-osnotes0108,0,2314540.story

"If you can't take a risk of $5 million per year for a pitcher like him, then you can't take any risks at all," Valentine said. "I think it is a good signing."

We could do a lot worse.


I've seen him throw a lot better than he has thrown in the last couple of years," Valentine said. "Still, when watching him the last couple years he can be a special pitcher. Just compared to himself, he's not the same. But compared to a lot of guys, he's a lot better. He's a guy who hits his spots, changes speeds, competes, fields his position," Valentine said. "He'll study the hitter, know his weaknesses and attack them."

[stebs52]

Well the ay that Koji becomes an all star we will be lucky. Becuase either A) He will have deserved it or B) We will have as many fans as the Cubs do. Or attendance like they do.

??????????