Poll: Roberts for 4/44?

[ChaosLex]

The Orioles - according to Baltimore Sun reporting - were holding close to a three-year offer worth $30million until the past few weeks. Though no definite number came out of the Roberts camp, the word on the street was he was looking for closer to $40 million over that term and would look more kindly on a four-year offer. No one would be surprised if the final deal ends up being four years for about $44 million, which would be about the same average annual salary the Orioles gave Markakis.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.schmuck18feb18,0,5982414.column?track=rss

Do you like this deal or not?

[Dipper9]

I'd rather not go that high, but if its gotta be done, then I would go to that.

[wickedwitch]

Is the first year 2009 or 2010?

[Mackus]

I've never seen the Sun or Roch or anyone say specifically if these deals mean an extension, or starting in 2009. That really makes an enormous amount of difference. It'd be nice if they clarified. I think its likely an extension, but its not definitely an extension. I'm surprised they are all being so consistently vague, maybe even they don't really know.

Assuming its an extension, I wouldn't give him a 4/$44M extension. I won't be furious if he signs it though, even though the odds may be against him being worth that money in 2012 and 2013, he'll almost certainly be worth more in 2010 and 2011 and I don't think he'd get us much in a trade at this point.

[Who's On 1st]

I was against a 4 year deal before, but I think it is time to just get this done and I'll say just pay the man.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's a fine deal. He'll probably be just another 2B by the end of it, but that's ok. Chances are nobody in the system will be a MLB average second baseman in that period, and chances are he'll be better longer than any free agent available in the next year or two. The money would be a bargain anytime in the last half decade except right now. And I think folks are fooling themselves into thinking the economy means the player just needs to take whatever the team first offers and be happy with it - Brian Roberts does still have some leverage.

[Maverick2143]

I don't know if I like it per se, but I can live with it.

So I am voting the non-existant "other" option. :p

[Moose Milligan]

I'm waiting for SG to come in and bash this deal and say its "beyond awful" or something.

;)

I don't have a problem with it, the guys been good to Baltimore for awhile now. He's been through a lot of crap since he's been here and it's refreshing to see a high caliber player actually WANT to be here.

I'd hope the first year would be 2009 but if it's not I won't cry about it and act like its the end of the world....cause it's not.

[Mackus]

I'd hope the first year would be 2009 but if it's not I won't cry about it and act like its the end of the world....cause it's not.I agree with this. I feel that 4/$44M is the O's overpaying by a substantial amount, but he's the type of guy its ok to overpay for. I think we'll be kicking ourselves, definitely by the 5th year and maybe by the 4th, but we'll all be very happy to have him for another couple years before we get cranky.

[fearthenoodle]

From Schmuck (http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/schmuck/):


Everybody will be on the Brian Roberts watch today, after he told reporters that he would not talk about his contract situation until Thursday and Andy MacPhail said yesterday that the club and agent Mark Pieper were "narrowing the gap."

MacPhail also was quoted as saying that it wasn't crucial to get a deal done by the day of the first full-squad workout, but it seems like it's important to Brian to sweep away all this uncertainty -- one way or the other -- before he hunkers down for a long training camp and gets ready for what's either the first year of a new deal or his option year.

It'll probably become more clear very soon.

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't like those numbers, but Roberts' deal won't look like that, IMO.

[Mackus]

If 2009 is the first year, I'd be very happy with a 4/$44M deal. It'd essentially be a 3/$33M extension with a $2M signing bonus.

[Moose Milligan]

I don't like those numbers, but Roberts' deal won't look like that, IMO.

O rly? What'll they look like, cupcake?

[clapdiddy]

No...don't like this deal. I'd rather pay for 3 years 33, with a 2 million buyout on the 4th year. If he's still performing at a high level at the end of the 3rd year, just kick in the option.

[Don_Aase_Fan]

If 2009 is the first year, I'd be very happy with a 4/$44M deal. It'd essentially be a 3/$33M extension with a $2M signing bonus.

I couldn't agree more with this.
I voted "No" in the poll under the assumption that 4/44 would be an extension to 2009.
Either way, I'll be glad when we can finally put this to bed.

[EvilsH8er]

It is scary so many people would be okay with that contract. We are by most accounts two years off from any sort of contention. Two of those four years would be wasted on a 4th or 5th place finish. Come 2011 and hopefully a climb in the standings he will be 33. Plus take in account O. Hudson is begging teams to give him 1 year @ 5 million. This IMO would be Andy first mistake this winter.

[Hank Scorpio]

O rly? What'll they look like, cupcake?

He'll get a 3 year deal with an option year, I think.

What would you do in this economy, Alan Greenspan? Roll the dice that you'll be 2010's Orlando Hudson, or take the 3/$30 deal?

That's what I figured.

[Boy Howdy]

I voted yes, even though I don't really "like" the price.

The old baseball adage is that you're underpaid when you're young & overpaid when you're old. While I wouldn't encourage to Orioles brass to make that their M.O. in general, Roberts is a special case as a plus on and off the field.

Personally, I hope he never wears another uniform, though I won't get all emotional and smiley-crazy if he does.

[Anonymous]

I'm waiting for SG to come in and bash this deal and say its "beyond awful" or something.
;)

I don't have a problem with it, the guys been good to Baltimore for awhile now. He's been through a lot of crap since he's been here and it's refreshing to see a high caliber player actually WANT to be here.

I'd hope the first year would be 2009 but if it's not I won't cry about it and act like its the end of the world....cause it's not.That's beyond perceptive of you, Moose. Whatever SG's take on this, I'll go the opposite way.

[24fps]

4/44? Whatever for?

I agree that BRob might still have some leverage, but in this economy, I doubt his lever is much longer than a broomstick. I don't think that's enough to get 4/44 off the ground, unless year four is a team option.

[clarence]

It is too much money to put into second base. Any other position on the field and I'd be ok with it. One of Miclat, Turner, Paco, or any number of players from outside the organization could probably give us similar production by 2011, but we are still going to be on the hook for $20M+. He will be untradeable. He isn't like a corner infielder or outfielder who can possibly take the role of a utility player and move around the diamond. I like the guy and hope I'm wrong, it is just the position he plays.

[LookinUp]

I said no because I'm nitpicking, but I really wouldn't mind that deal. I just think he can, and will, be resigned for less.

[Brotha J]

I'm with Hank, I can't see the deal being 4/44.

How is that a compromise between the 3/30 & 4/40, which was the reported starting points in negotiation? The market is down (ask O-Dog) which works against Roberts too.

My prediction is they give him the fourth year but for less than 40 million.

[olehippi]

I do really want Roberts to stay, but 4/44...:eek: No....definitely not, and if that is what he's expecting....? Well, good luck with whatever team foolish enough to high-jacked.

We apparently offered 3/30 and he turned it down.....and IMO, shame on him. And while I think the 4th year isn't a major hurdle, the tops I would go would be 4/36.

[Frobby]

I voted yes, even though I don't really "like" the price.

That is why I voted "no." However, I would like it even less if Brian flew the coup. So I think really we feel exactly the same.

[ChaosLex]

I'm waiting for SG to come in and bash this deal and say its "beyond awful" or something.

I vote for "absurd." ;)

Just kidding Sports Guy. :D

[miwayjO's]

The Markakis signing is more relevant to the B-Rob negotiations than Orlando Hudson...

Hudson has had an injury-plagued career, and teams are hesitant to give a 31yr old 2B big money who's health is in question...

The Orioles have no one in place to fill B-Rob's place in the batting order, or in the field. It makes sense for the Orioles to extend him. B-Rob has become quite the fixture in the Baltimore community, and he would rather stay where he is...

4yrs/42M...Go O's!!!

[ChesterPeake]

Sometimes you just have to pay a little more than you would like to get what you need. This is one of those times.

Brian Roberts is very productive and, because of the way he takes care of himself, I think he is likely to remain very productive for most of the next four years.

[Moose Milligan]

I vote for "absurd." ;)

Just kidding Sports Guy. :D

Piss poor?

Or perhaps lazy? I dunno.

;)

[ChaosLex]

Piss poor?

Or perhaps lazy? I dunno.

;)

OMG... did we just create a drinking game? :rofl:

[Moose Milligan]

OMG... did we just create a drinking game? :rofl:

:beerchug1::beerchug1:

[miwayjO's]

Another signing this off-season that might have an effect on the B-Rob negotiations is the extension Dustin Pedroia signed for 6yrs/40.5M...Go O's!!!

[Mackus]

Another signing this off-season that might have an effect on the B-Rob negotiations is the extension Dustin Pedroia signed for 6yrs/40.5M...Go O's!!!Pedroia got about $11M a year for the 2 FA years that were bought out. Those are 5 years away, so they lowered the salary in those years to offset the risk that they are taking on by guaranteeing him money. If he was a FA a year from now instead of 4 years from now, he would have gotten probably $13-15M annually for several years.

In other words, Pedroia isn't a relevant comparison to Roberts.

[Frobby]

Pedroia got about $11M a year for the 2 FA years that were bought out. Those are 5 years away, so they lowered the salary in those years to offset the risk that they are taking on by guaranteeing him money. If he was a FA a year from now instead of 4 years from now, he would have gotten probably $13-15M annually for several years.

In other words, Pedroia isn't a relevant comparison to Roberts.

He's as relevant as anything else. There is just as much risk (actually, more risk) in where Roberts will be 3-4 years from now compared to where Pedroia will be. So if Pederoia (discounted for risk) is worth $11 mm in 2013, Roberts should be worth less.

[Tx Oriole]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.schmuck18feb18,0,5982414.column?track=rss

Do you like this deal or not?

Lex, I did not vote. What ever the deal is I jsut hope it gets done. I like Roberts and beleive he is important for the team.

[FR500]

Like the 4 years, alot! ... personally, I never really cared about the amount that players get. It's not my money (as long as ticket and beer prices don't go up too high). Seems like a muchly need icon like Brob is worth $10-12 million year... but what do I know, I'm retired.

[Tx Oriole]

It is scary so many people would be okay with that contract. We are by most accounts two years off from any sort of contention. Two of those four years would be wasted on a 4th or 5th place finish. Come 2011 and hopefully a climb in the standings he will be 33. Plus take in account O. Hudson is begging teams to give him 1 year @ 5 million. This IMO would be Andy first mistake this winter.

I am sorry but I ahve to disagree. The team does not have a 2nd baseman that can come in to take his place. Freel might be able to hold down 2nd for a little while. Wiggy? Well, I odn't know if he can play 2nd. I don't beleive Scotty can or Mora can either. Roberts is a very good player. I beleive it is time to extend him and get on with ST. IMO

[Sports Guy]

I was the first, I believe, to bring up the idea on here of tearing up the 2009 deal and giving him 3 years total.

If AM is doing that, which I am going to still doubt, then it won't be the worst contract ever given.

But if he's not, its a poor contract.

Either way, I wouldn't give him the contract, at least not right now.

[BaltimoreSports]

Why should roberts get as much as kakes?
That makes no sense to me and i think it would be a shame to spend that much money on him.

[El Gordo]

I would prefer 3 years with an option for four but I have no problem with tour. I think he'll be a solid player for at least 3 of those 4 years and at least league average for the final year. Wile the market value for him is down I think that you also have to consider the value of his production for the team in terms of their needs. Unless there is some MiL phenom out there we haven't heard about there are no better 2B options out there for the next 3-4years at least, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

Why should roberts get as much as kakes?
That makes no sense to me and i think it would be a shame to spend that much money on him.

The 2 contracts have nothing to do with each other.

BRob is getting paid in his FA years...Nick is getting paid for his arbitration and FA years..In his FA years, he will make more than BRob..But the arbitration years bring the value per year down...In other words, think service time.

[BaltimoreSports]

The 2 contracts have nothing to do with each other.

BRob is getting paid in his FA years...Nick is getting paid for his arbitration and FA years..In his FA years, he will make more than BRob..But the arbitration years bring the value per year down...In other words, think service time.

Okay i understand that but how much does that bring it down per year? I mean technically he still would be getting the same per year, so how can you justify it? By saying it was when they made their contracts?
I know we got a great deal for kakes but having b-rob making as much as him (whether through FA or FA + arbitration) is ridiculous.

[Frobby]

Okay i understand that but how much does that bring it down per year? I mean technically he still would be getting the same per year, so how can you justify it? By saying it was when they made their contracts?
I know we got a great deal for kakes but having b-rob making as much as him (whether through FA or FA + arbitration) is ridiculous.

Not really. Nick is making $4.1 mm in 2009, $7.85 mm in 2010, and $10.25 mm in 2011, all before he would have been eligible for free agency. (That includes his $2.1 mm signing bonus paid partially in 2009 and partially in 2010.) In his three free agent years he's getting $12 mm/$15 mm/$15 mm, plus a $17.5 mm option with a $2 mm buyout. That's a lot more than BRob will earn in his deal.

[Mackus]

Okay i understand that but how much does that bring it down per year? I mean technically he still would be getting the same per year, so how can you justify it? By saying it was when they made their contracts?
I know we got a great deal for kakes but having b-rob making as much as him (whether through FA or FA + arbitration) is ridiculous.The annual amount for guys who sign deals covering some of their arb, or even pre-arb in cases like Pedroia or Longoria, is not equal to the total guaranteed money divided by the total years of the contract.

The fact that players would only get next to nothing in pre-arb years, and then about 1/3 of FA value in their 1st arb year, 1/2 of FA value in their second, and about 3/4 of FA value in their 3rd arb year is an undeniable fact, and thusly the team and player have to take that into account when negotiating.

Markakis' deal will average $11M over 6 years, but his FA years were signed for closer to $15M than that $11M average.

[Sports Guy]

This goes back to what I was asking before...Do you pay a guy what he is "worth"(say by fangraphs standards) or do you pay him what the market dictates what he is worth?

Because the market says BRob isn't worth this contract right now.

[Mackus]

This goes back to what I was asking before...Do you pay a guy what he is "worth"(say by fangraphs standards) or do you pay him what the market dictates what he is worth?

Because the market says BRob isn't worth this contract right now.It depends on a couple factors.

1) Will the player accept current market terms or will he gamble he can get more in FA?
2) Do you think the market will remain down for a while, or will it bounce back quickly?

I don't think it is unreasonable to think that by 2012 or 2013 the market will be right back up to where it was or even higher. If WAR are worth $5-6M in 2013, then even at $12M Roberts shouldn't be too much of a disappointment even if some of the more pessimistic projections for his career come to fruition. And even in this current deflated market Roberts is probably worth $10-12M over the next 2 and maybe 3 seasons (starting 2009).

[Frobby]

This goes back to what I was asking before...Do you pay a guy what he is "worth"(say by fangraphs standards) or do you pay him what the market dictates what he is worth?

Because the market says BRob isn't worth this contract right now.

As I understand fangraphs, it is specifically looking at the "market" for the year in question. For example, 2008 values are determined by what last year's free agents received. Therefore, one can assume that if BRob duplicated his 2008 season in 2009, it would have a "value" much lower than in 2008 because the market has been worse. But even so, using fangraphs' methods, I think it is still a safe bet that Roberts is worth more than $10-11 mm a year for his current performance level (since he was worth $18 and $20 mm the last 2 years based on 2007/08 prices).

Will next year's market be better or worse - who knows? If I were a betting man I'd guess it will be no better, and maybe worse, but I could be wrong.

[Sports Guy]

It depends on a couple factors.

1) Will the player accept current market terms or will he gamble he can get more in FA?
2) Do you think the market will remain down for a while, or will it bounce back quickly?

I don't think it is unreasonable to think that by 2012 or 2013 the market will be right back up to where it was or even higher. If WAR are worth $5-6M in 2013, then even at $12M Roberts shouldn't be too much of a disappointment even if some of the more pessimistic projections for his career come to fruition. And even in this current deflated market Roberts is probably worth $10-12M over the next 2 and maybe 3 seasons (starting 2009).

But next offseason, things are likely to be as bad or worse....So, because of that, what are the chances BRob gets a 3/33 type deal next offseason, assuming he has a similar year to what he did in 2008? Solid OPS, high OBP and average at best defense...lots of doubles.

Would he get 3/33 in that scenario? I would say its possible but I would guess unlikely, assuming the market is as bad or worse.

One thing said early in the offseason is that GMs don't want to be bogged down with a long term deal for guys in their 30s..Now, there will always be exceptions but would BRob be one of those?

He is a leadoff guy, so he has that going for him but second baseman are treated poorly, so I am don't think he gets that contract.

So, then this all comes back to one thing IMO...How much of this contract are you giving him for what he has done for you in the past, for the idea that he is a fan favorite and that he is good in the community? How much is that worth?

[Frobby]

But next offseason, things are likely to be as bad or worse....So, because of that, what are the chances BRob gets a 3/33 type deal next offseason, assuming he has a similar year to what he did in 2008? Solid OPS, high OBP and average at best defense...lots of doubles.

Would he get 3/33 in that scenario? I would say its possible but I would guess unlikely, assuming the market is as bad or worse.

One thing said early in the offseason is that GMs don't want to be bogged down with a long term deal for guys in their 30s..Now, there will always be exceptions but would BRob be one of those?

He is a leadoff guy, so he has that going for him but second baseman are treated poorly, so I am don't think he gets that contract.

So, then this all comes back to one thing IMO...How much of this contract are you giving him for what he has done for you in the past, for the idea that he is a fan favorite and that he is good in the community? How much is that worth?

Milton Bradley got 3/$30 mm in this market. He had a career year and it was still only worth as much as BRob's year (per fangraphs). If I was betting on who would be the more productive player the next 3 years, it would be BRob without much doubt.

What he has done in the past and for the community might get a player an extra year or an extra $1-2 mm/yr. above what he's worth. Beyond that isn't really reasonable. But BRob is worth a lot.

[Mackus]

But next offseason, things are likely to be as bad or worse....So, because of that, what are the chances BRob gets a 3/33 type deal next offseason, assuming he has a similar year to what he did in 2008? Solid OPS, high OBP and average at best defense...lots of doubles.

Would he get 3/33 in that scenario? I would say its possible but I would guess unlikely, assuming the market is as bad or worse.

One thing said early in the offseason is that GMs don't want to be bogged down with a long term deal for guys in their 30s..Now, there will always be exceptions but would BRob be one of those?

He is a leadoff guy, so he has that going for him but second baseman are treated poorly, so I am don't think he gets that contract.

So, then this all comes back to one thing IMO...How much of this contract are you giving him for what he has done for you in the past, for the idea that he is a fan favorite and that he is good in the community? How much is that worth?I'm not really comparing this potential contract to what he would get next offseason. I'm comparing it to what he'll be worth over the course of that contract. I definitely think the market will likely be down again next year, but I think by the end of the deal it will bounce back.

I think we will sign him to a contract that will be more than he'd get as a free agent next offseason, but that doesn't mean that he definitely will not live up to that contract. If you buy something worth on sale for $50 down from $75, do you get upset if you see it on sale a two months later for $40 or are you still happy that you got it on a 50% discount?

[Fan4Life]

It depends on a couple factors.

1) Will the player accept current market terms or will he gamble he can get more in FA?
2) Do you think the market will remain down for a while, or will it bounce back quickly?

I don't think it is unreasonable to think that by 2012 or 2013 the market will be right back up to where it was or even higher. If WAR are worth $5-6M in 2013, then even at $12M Roberts shouldn't be too much of a disappointment even if some of the more pessimistic projections for his career come to fruition. And even in this current deflated market Roberts is probably worth $10-12M over the next 2 and maybe 3 seasons (starting 2009).

I think you need to add #3 if the player is one of the best at his position.

3) Do the teams that overspend to get premiere talent (Yanks, Sox, etc) have an opening your player might fill.

[wickedwitch]

One of Miclat, Turner, Paco, or any number of players from outside the organization could probably give us similar production by 2011, but we are still going to be on the hook for $20M+.

I'm a lot more skeptical about that.

Who is Paco?

[Lucky Jim]

You know, I actually believe 2009 will be the first year. It's like the perfect compromise between 3/30 and 4/40 extensions. He gets more money but rips up the first year. So ends up being like 3/36 or 37 or something like that.

4/44 going until 2013 would be just awful in terms of a market decision. Brian is not worth 38-40 millino more than Odog.

Well, according to fangraphs calculation, Roberts has been worth $71.2m over the last four years, Hudson has been worth $39m.

But, first, no one's paying Orlando Hudson $4-6m for four years. So the comparison is inapt. Second, the idea that Roberts is worth twice what Hudson is seems to have some validity.

You're also ignoring the leverage factors: no team is in a position where not signing Hudson has any externalities beyond performance on the field. The O's have legitimate concerns about off-field value for Roberts that has to be taken into account.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm a lot more skeptical about that.

Who is Paco?

Figuera.

Letters.

[Frobby]

A few data points:

Ibanez 3/$31.5 (age 36) (2.9, 0.8, 2.3 Value Runs the last 3 years)
Furcal 3/$30 (age 31) (3.8, 1.7, 1.9)
Bradley 3/$30 (age 30) (2.8, 2.4, 4.5)
Dunn 2/$20 (age 29) (1.8, 2.8, 1.3)
Renteria 2/$18.5 (age 33) (3.6, 4.2, 1.4)
Hudson unsigned (age 31) (2.5, 3.4, 1.9)
Roberts unsigned (age 31) (3.1, 4.4, 4.5)

The first 5 guys will be making about $4 mm per average Value Run over the last three years. I think it is self evident that Roberts is currently the most valuable of the players in that group and deserves to make more than any of them over the next three years. At $4 mm per average Value Run he's worth $16 mm/yr. over the next 3 years. Then the issue is what is he worth for the two years after that. Put it this way, if he gets 4/$44 plus the $9 mm he is making in 2009, it's certainly not a big ripoff. He's highly likely to be worth more than $53 mm over the next 5 years, using these guys as the measuring stick.

[Scrat1]

I'm okay with it if it starts in 2009. If it starts in 2010, then I won't be too thrilled.

[Ruzious]

It is too much money to put into second base. Any other position on the field and I'd be ok with it. One of Miclat, Turner, Paco, or any number of players from outside the organization could probably give us similar production by 2011, but we are still going to be on the hook for $20M+. He will be untradeable. He isn't like a corner infielder or outfielder who can possibly take the role of a utility player and move around the diamond. I like the guy and hope I'm wrong, it is just the position he plays.
I think you're correct that he'll be untradable with a 4/44 contract, but to expect that one of Miclat, Turner, or especially Figueroa will duplcate his production by 2011... that's a big longshot, imo.

[Stacey]

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that it's a 4 year, $40M contract (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9235970/Sources:-Roberts,-O%27s-close-on-4-year,-$40M-deal)

[Frobby]

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that it's a 4 year, $40M contract (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9235970/Sources:-Roberts,-O%27s-close-on-4-year,-$40M-deal)

If so, I'm at peace.

[SilentJames]

This looks to me like a Melvin Mora situation all over again. Roberts is the type of guy that you have to pay. He means a lot to the team and is a guy who actually wants to play here.

I don't like the idea of 11 million a year for Roberts, but is it worth 11 million to the Orioles to keep him in orange and black? Should Roberts be penalized for having the bad luck to go on the FA market during an economic collapse after he has been such a good part of the Orioles so far?

There are a lot of factors to consider and many viewpoints. Right now, I don't like the dollar value much at all.

10 million is better, but still a little high.

[Sports Guy]

This looks to me like a Melvin Mora situation all over again. Roberts is the type of guy that you have to pay. He means a lot to the team and is a guy who actually wants to play here.

I don't like the idea of 11 million a year for Roberts, but is it worth 11 million to the Orioles to keep him in orange and black? Should Roberts be penalized for having the bad luck to go on the FA market during an economic collapse after he has been such a good part of the Orioles so far?

There are a lot of factors to consider and many viewpoints. Right now, I don't like the dollar value much at all.

Why? Because the fans like him?

And why does he have to be paid now? Why not wait and see how things go with the market over the next season?

[SilentJames]

Why? Because the fans like him?

And why does he have to be paid now? Why not wait and see how things go with the market over the next season?

Face it, he has been a fairly lone bright spot over the past 11 years. And despite the Mitchell Report has been a model citizen off the diamond.

Mora's situation worked out well and we all pretty much agreed he earned his money.

I would rather keep Roberts happy. The Orioles are not dealing from a position of strength with Roberts. they have attempted to deal him to no avail, they would look terrible to let him walk and Roberts has threatened to do as much.

By waiting you risk the market rebounding and getting stuck with a worse deal.

Which is worse, the devil you know or the devil you don't? AM chose the former. Again, I think it is too much money but Roberts has been as close to a marquee player the Orioles have had over the last decade and one of the few ones that was a legit homegrown, face-of-the-org type guy.

Again, don't like the dollars but you have to pay up sometimes.

[Frobby]

Why? Because the fans like him?

And why does he have to be paid now? Why not wait and see how things go with the market over the next season?

For one thing, if we did that, we'd take the risk that BRob just goes into the FA market and signs somewhere else, and we now need to downgrade at 2B. Ever hear of Mike Mussina or B.J. Ryan?

I also think that most organizations don't leave their best players, who have performed well for the team over a considerable length of time, dangling in the wind.

The approach the O's are taking may not minimize the dollars we have to pay BRob, or the exposure to the risk that BRob declines, but it eliminates the risk that we lose a very good player, and alienate fans and teammates in the process.

[Lucky Jim]

For one thing, if we did that, we'd take the risk that BRob just goes into the FA market and signs somewhere else, and we now need to downgrade at 2B. Ever hear of Mike Mussina or B.J. Ryan?

I also think that most organizations don't leave their best players, who have performed well for the team over a considerable length of time, dangling in the wind.

The approach the O's are taking may not minimize the dollars we have to pay BRob, or the exposure to the risk that BRob declines, but it eliminates the risk that we lose a very good player, and alienate fans and teammates in the process.

There's definitely something to this. I don't think we should overestimate externalities, but they exist. SG pretty clearly doesn't believe in - or at least place much value in - externalities.

[SilentJames]

For one thing, if we did that, we'd take the risk that BRob just goes into the FA market and signs somewhere else, and we now need to downgrade at 2B. Ever hear of Mike Mussina or B.J. Ryan?

I also think that most organizations don't leave their best players, who have performed well for the team over a considerable length of time, dangling in the wind.

The approach the O's are taking may not minimize the dollars we have to pay BRob, or the exposure to the risk that BRob declines, but it eliminates the risk that we lose a very good player, and alienate fans and teammates in the process.

Exactly, I mean the math might not be great, but this certainly isn't a franchise killing risk we are taking here. Call it a C- for AM if you want, but at the end of the day Roberts probably leaves the game as an Oriole.

[Sports Guy]

For one thing, if we did that, we'd take the risk that BRob just goes into the FA market and signs somewhere else, and we now need to downgrade at 2B. Ever hear of Mike Mussina or B.J. Ryan?

I also think that most organizations don't leave their best players, who have performed well for the team over a considerable length of time, dangling in the wind.

The approach the O's are taking may not minimize the dollars we have to pay BRob, or the exposure to the risk that BRob declines, but it eliminates the risk that we lose a very good player, and alienate fans and teammates in the process.Different market..Different situation.

And the alienating the fans argument is a pretty convenient argument to make at times. People like to use it at times and swat it away at other times.

[Frobby]

SG pretty clearly doesn't believe in - or at least place much value in - externalities.

I think SG knows they exist, he just doesn't place much value in them.

I work at a large law firm. Other competing firms are laying off younger lawyers, and cutting salaries. We aren't. Why? One, because we place value on being loyal. Two, because we believe that loyalty will be reciprocated and pay dividends when times aren't as tough.

In the O's case, the "externalities" also have a certain dollar value. BRob is a much-beloved player, and every franchise needs a few of those to maintain a loyal fan base.

[LookitsPuck]

I'd prefer something like 3/27. I don't like 3/30, and I certainly would not like 4/40 or 4/44. Too much money. Brian Roberts is a small fella, who has only put together 3 above average seasons at 2B. I like that he's been consistent since coming off his injury, but I don't like that he's 31.

I'd really like to know if it's 4/40 as a new contract, or 4/40 as an extension. If it's an extension, We're talking about having him at 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 years of age.

I'm not too pissed off at it. I think it's the classic case of overpaying, and Brian Roberts, barring injury, should be able to put up average or slightly below average numbers as he approaches his mid 30s.

To those that say Brian Roberts WANTS to play here. I don't know if that's always been the case. He's certainly flip flopped over the last few years, mostly due to a poorly run organization that, at the time, had no direction whatsoever...well, aside from going backwards. Has he had a change of heart? He says he loves the city and he loves the organization, but he wants to win. The Orioles are trying to show a dedication to win, but let's see it happen. But let's not paint Brian Roberts as a player that wanted/wants to stay here no matter what.

[Lucky Jim]

I think SG knows they exist, he just doesn't place much value in them.

I work at a large law firm. Other competing firms are laying off younger lawyers, and cutting salaries. We aren't. Why? One, because we place value on being loyal. Two, because we believe that loyalty will be reciprocated and pay dividends when times aren't as tough.

In the O's case, the "externalities" also have a certain dollar value. BRob is a much-beloved player, and every franchise needs a few of those to maintain a loyal fan base.

Yes. Same situation here. Our partners even accepted lower profits to keep our bonuses in line with previous years. It's an equitable approach based on similar thinking.

[Lucky Jim]

I'd prefer something like 3/27. I don't like 3/30, and I certainly would not like 4/40 or 4/44. Too much money. Brian Roberts is a small fella, who has only put together 3 above average seasons at 2B. I like that he's been consistent since coming off his injury, but I don't like that he's 31.

I'd really like to know if it's 4/40 as a new contract, or 4/40 as an extension. If it's an extension, We're talking about having him at 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 years of age.

I'm not too pissed off at it. I think it's the classic case of overpaying, and Brian Roberts, barring injury, should be able to put up average or slightly below average numbers as he approaches his mid 30s.

To those that say Brian Roberts WANTS to play here. I don't know if that's always been the case. He's certainly flip flopped over the last few years, mostly due to a poorly run organization that, at the time, had no direction whatsoever...well, aside from going backwards. Has he had a change of heart? He says he loves the city and he loves the organization, but he wants to win. The Orioles are trying to show a dedication to win, but let's see it happen. But let's not paint Brian Roberts as a player that wanted/wants to stay here no matter what.

Above what average?

[Frobby]

Different market..Different situation.

And the alienating the fans argument is a pretty convenient argument to make at times. People like to use it at times and swat it away at other times.

The risk of losing BRob is pretty much the same as the risk of losing Mussina or Ryan by letting them go into their contract year. The Yankees are unhappy with Cano. The Mets are unhappy with Castillo. What are the chances that one or both of them go hard after BRob if he's available next winter? Quite high, I'd say.

[DonnyUnitas]

I just heard on FoxSports Radio that Ken Rosenthal is reporting that we have come to terms with B-Rob... 4 for 40.


:D:clap3::D

[LookitsPuck]

Above what average?

Merely basing on OPS+. His 05, 07, and 08 campaigns. One could contend that his 06 season was an aberration, but I'm just going off the numbers. I do like, however, that he started stringing together plus seasons within the last few seasons, as opposed to right out of the gates and then being inconsistent.

[Osfan13]

Git 'er dun!

[Osfan13]

Merely basing on OPS+. His 05, 07, and 08 campaigns. One could contend that his 06 season was an aberration, but I'm just going off the numbers. I do like, however, that he started stringing together plus seasons within the last few seasons, as opposed to right out of the gates and then being inconsistent.

In 2006 he was coming back from arm surgury and had a groin issue that year as well. He probably wasn't in baseball shape at the start of the season because he spent so much time in rehab. I personally felt that B-Rob's 2006 season was pretty good for a guy who suffered a career threatening injury in September of 2005.

I actually went to the first spring training game he came back in. Spring Break in Miami....


....... with the girlfriend.

[LookitsPuck]

In 2006 he was coming back from arm surgury and had a groin issue that year as well. He probably wasn't in baseball shape at the start of the season because he spent so much time in rehab. I personally felt that B-Rob's 2006 season was pretty good for a guy who suffered a career threatening injury in September of 2005.

I actually went to the first spring training game he came back in. Spring Break in Miami....


....... with the girlfriend.

Sand to the beach, man. Sand to the beach....

[Lucky Jim]

Merely basing on OPS+. His 05, 07, and 08 campaigns. One could contend that his 06 season was an aberration, but I'm just going off the numbers. I do like, however, that he started stringing together plus seasons within the last few seasons, as opposed to right out of the gates and then being inconsistent.

Shouldn't you be judging him against other second baseman, though, rather than some crude metric like OPS+?

[ugen64]

The risk of losing BRob is pretty much the same as the risk of losing Mussina or Ryan by letting them go into their contract year. The Yankees are unhappy with Cano. The Mets are unhappy with Castillo. What are the chances that one or both of them go hard after BRob if he's available next winter? Quite high, I'd say.

2B is a premium position, and Roberts is a premium player. If the Yankees perform below expectations next season (which personally I think will happen), they could easily go after 2 or 3 more Type A free agents next year, which could mean we don't even get a 1st round pick for Roberts.

Are we overpaying with 4 years / $40 million? Possibly. I'd say it's about 60/40 for whether or not he earns that contract. But we do have a lot of money coming off the books in 2010, and it just so happens that the infield is one of our weaker points in the organization. If Roberts were, say, a left fielder, I wouldn't be so quick to extend him.

[tom smith]

I've never seen the Sun or Roch or anyone say specifically if these deals mean an extension, or starting in 2009. That really makes an enormous amount of difference. It'd be nice if they clarified. I think its likely an extension, but its not definitely an extension. I'm surprised they are all being so consistently vague, maybe even they don't really know.

Assuming its an extension, I wouldn't give him a 4/$44M extension. I won't be furious if he signs it though, even though the odds may be against him being worth that money in 2012 and 2013, he'll almost certainly be worth more in 2010 and 2011 and I don't think he'd get us much in a trade at this point.

Hey i'm ok with it, just don't give him a no trade deal and if we get an offer down the road and it makes since to move him we move him if not thats ok to. I think Brob will still be a pretty good 2B at 35-36 just not as many SB's.

[wickedwitch]

One of the keys to budgeting is that overpaying for mediocrity is an especially bad idea. Overpaying for the top players is much more okay.

[Lucky Jim]

One of the keys to budgeting is that overpaying for mediocrity is an especially bad idea. Overpaying for the top players is much more okay.

Isn't the real problem that this is a sliding scale, with a great deal of unpredictability built-in?

[Delduck]

I would be happy either way. For what he has done on and off the field the kid deserves to be rewarded, and I really don't think there will be a huge decline in the last year or so. IMO a good deal for everyone.

[Stotle]

Isn't the real problem that this is a sliding scale, with a great deal of unpredictability built-in?

Yeah, I'd think this is really the issue.

[tywright]

4 years / $40M according to Roch

[DrungoHazewood]

You know it continues to amaze me how some people on here are tired of the O's making bad decisions, are such die-hard fans, would give anything to see us win again, and acknowledge the past mistakes we've made..

But then just don't even think twice about giving BROB this deal because he's a fan favorite, a nice guy off the field, good for charities, etc etc.

So what you guys are saying is that if the fans didn't like BROB and if he was a shy, unfamilar guy off the field but had the same stats, that you wouldn't mind seeing him go, or would think harder about giving him the extra year?

That is a horrible way to run a franchise and to make personel decisions. Look at the Ravens....we have the Ray Ray situation. Now, if there is one person that marketing may come into play when you look across every single professional sports team, Ray Lewis may be #1 on that list. And yet, Ravens fans seem to be divided on whether he's worth more than his on field value.

Yet it seems the majority of O's fans want to see Brian get overpaid to keep him here. Really doesn't make sense.

I keep repeating that I'd give him a 4/44 deal if he had a crappy personality and looked like Billy Bob Thornton. His on-field performance merits it.

[Frobby]

4 years / $40M according to Roch

Also according to Ken Rosenthal earlier today. At that price, it's fairly easy for me to swallow that 4th year.

[SoBo]

With no heir apparent waiting in the wings, this is a great deal. We've got enough holes in the IF to have to worry about one that is already properly filled. By all accounts his decline will be negligible over the course of the contract. You have the makings of a very promising young line up with Brob at the top. Good deal.

[oldbird]

Just Do It ! Get It Over With Already ! Brob should still be productive for at least 3 of the four years and if shows the rest of the youngsters that if you play hard the organization will retain you.:scratchchinhmm:

[cindyluvsbrady]

They can even pay more:)
I just want My Perfect One!:hearts: here!:pray:

[Art Wing]

Is there a way to see a breakdown showing how individual people voted?

[El Gordo]

Is there a way to see a breakdown showing how individual people voted?Just click on the red number next to the %.