General thoughts on drafting HS pitchers

[Sports Guy]

Where do you stand on this subject?

[crawdad]

Case by case scenario . . . over genericizing HS as unsafe or college guys as safe is overly and obviously simplistic.

[Sports Guy]

Case by case scenario . . . over genericizing HS as unsafe or college guys as safe is overly and obviously simplistic.

Let's say you have these 3 as options:

1) Crow
2) Matzek
3) Grant Green

Let's say that you believe Matzek has the biggest upside of those 3 but you also feel Crow has very good upside and that he is close to ML ready and you feel Green should be an above average SS and should be ready within 1-2 years.

What way do you go and why?

[ThisIsOurHouse]

I don't care what level they come from if they can get batters out and be productive then I'll like to have them be an Oriole. As far as this year I would love to have Matzek or Miller be in our minor leagues.

[crawdad]

Let's say you have these 3 as options:

1) Crow
2) Matzek
3) Grant Green

Let's say that you believe Matzek has the biggest upside of those 3 but you also feel Crow has very good upside and that he is close to ML ready and you feel Green should be an above average SS and should be ready within 1-2 years.

What way do you go and why?

They are all close to major league ready. Matzek can be a number one. Crow has a great shot at being a closer. Green could fix himself or stall out. Their identity as being a college, indy, or HS guy is immaterial. The only thing that makes Crow different from college or HS is that as an indy guy . . . he has to sign as he needs to get to free agency.

[allstar1579]

Nothing wrong with it as long as you do your due diligence. Talent is talent, and getting it 2-3 years before it gets more expensive is always a good thing. No greater or lesser risk HS v College for me, it's either going to happen or not.

[QBsILLEST1]

For me personally, it depends on the HS arm. Matzek is a bit different than the rest of the HS arms available. I have been one of the biggest Crow supporters for this draft since the beginnning. I love his upside and polish and think he is a good bet to be a #2/3tarter in the majors. I still take Matzek over him. A week ago I would have chose Crow in the same situation, but now there are reports that Matzek is throwing fastballs up to 98 MPH. This is up 4 MPH from last reports. Mix his 98 MPH heater with his advanced control and repetoire pitches and his pitchability, and you have a very good prospect. The rest of the HS arms lag behind whether its secondary stuff or command or velocity..... As I said Crow is very good, but Matzek is a good bet to be better. WHen its all said and done, Matzek will have a better fastball than Crow and more above average to plus secondary pitches with better command. And Green has way to many questions about him to take this high especially with these good pitching prospects available. IMO this draft is looking a bit better as time rolls on.

And as for taking a HS pitcher over a college pitcher, it depends. Matzek IMO is about as safe as you can get for a HS pitcher. His advanced pitchability, comand, arsenal and velocity make him a sure bet to contribute to the majors some day as long as injury doesnt strike. And that is helped by his squeaky clean pitching motion......

[Sports Guy]

They are all close to major league ready. Matzek can be a number one. Crow has a great shot at being a closer. Green could fix himself or stall out. Their identity as being a college, indy, or HS guy is immaterial. The only thing that makes Crow different from college or HS is that as an indy guy . . . he has to sign as he needs to get to free agency.You think Matzek is close to ML ready?

[crawdad]

You think Matzek is close to ML ready?

I think they are all 2-3 years out. Crow can be up next year if you want him to relieve.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think they are all 2-3 years out. Crow can be up next year if you want him to relieve.

Oh my goodness. An 18-year-old lefthander with good secondary pitches and clean mechanics who may be hitting 97-98 and who could be pitching in MLB at age 21.

Where do I sign up?

[LookinUp]

Oh my goodness. An 18-year-old lefthander with good secondary pitches and clean mechanics who may be hitting 97-98 and who could be pitching in MLB at age 21.

Where do I sign up?

Seriously, even if he's "only" throwing 96 as a high school senior, is left handed, has easy mechanics and command of 3 or more plus pitches, he's an amazing prospect.

I'm very sold on Matzek as my #2 prospect right now, followed by Crow and Ackley (position/power really scare me) in that order. If he somehow falls to us and Jordan pulls his lever, I will be ecstatic.

Here's my current top 5, as if anyone cares. :laughlol:

1. Strasburg
2. Matzek
3. Crow
4. Ackley
5. Wheeler

[bej6789]

I think its really a team by team scenario, not a case by case. Apart from talent, it's a completely different mental playing field. Instead of sleeping in your own bed every night, having meals prepared for you and your laundry done (hopefully, ;)) -- you are on the road in unfamiliar surroundings with little to no support system. That alone can break players, and we haven't even reached the actual game part of the whole equation. Every player you're up against is the best of the best, opposed to high school when the best player per team (in a really good league) is pro-ball worthy.

For me, college pitchers just seem a little more seasoned. I'm not doubting the potential of prep arms, but the mental side of things scares me. If the organization has a solid system in place to further ease the transition process from prep to pro's then it's a tossup... but I just don't think there's many organizations that can really provide everything a prep player needs.

[Three RBI Homer]

I like the idea of drafting HS pitchers, especially in this draft, which is top heavy in them.

Im not a fan of crow. dont like his mechanics
Grant Green would be a reach at the 5 spot
I cannot stand Kyle Gibson. If we draft him I will blow my head off.
Dustin Ackley will not fall to us.
Again, not a fan of Donovan Tate either. He seems to be a Corey Patterson type player. Not a fan.
That leaves
-Matzek
-Wheeler
-Turner
-Purke
-Scheppers
-Miller

Cross Scheppers off the list, I'm a fan, but the "wear and tear" on his arm has me running in the opposite direction.

That leaves 5 HS pitchers on the board. If i had to pick one, I'd say Matzek takes the cake. After him I'd take Turner. Theres just something about him I really like. Same goes with Matt Purke. I cant point it out, but there is just a feeling I have that those three will end up better off than Miller and Wheeler.

[Jammer7]

Really Crawdad said it all. It's case by case. In this year's draft, the college arms all have baggage. I personally like the idea of taking a HS arm in the upper part of the first round, if you have a few things in line.

1. You have to be able to trust that your scouting staff has done their homework thoroughly...know the family well, know the kid's work habits, intangibles, wear and tear/workload over the last two-three seasons, projections, signability, etc...

2. I think you have to have some depth in your system so that you can afford an occasional miss. HS arms can be a big risk, obviously, but if you have a barren sytem the risk is much bigger.

3. You absolutely have to trust your development staff. A lot of talent goes unrealized out of every draft's first round. The teams who are successful at taking a HS arm in the first round and getting him to the ML's are the same organizations who have taken true development seriously. They have a plan and talented people who know how to teach and manage. The same teams do it repeatedly, it's not a coincidence.

We have the pieces in place to grow HS arms. We all know Jordan's guys do their job excellently, we have depth in the system, and the development staff is the best it has been since the early 70's. I've never seen Turner or Matzek pitch, but LH's are said to be more valuable all else being the same. With Turner, Boras is a problem, but to be a big time team you have to be able to deal with him. NY and Boston do, heck even KC does. If you grade Turner out higher than Matzek, you have to take Turner.

[atlantaoriole]

Here is a recent interview with Matzek from 5 days ago. Seems to have a good head on his shoulders...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CN-wCXxUtjw

I hope Matzek falls to us. I think I'm starting to like this kid more than Strasburg.

[Gurgi]

Oh my goodness. An 18-year-old lefthander with good secondary pitches and clean mechanics who may be hitting 97-98 and who could be pitching in MLB at age 21.

Where do I sign up?

Yeah I aint following the draft careful at all but this sounds like a tasty snack. Why not take the best HS lefty arm? Let him take three/four years getting to the bigs and be ready when Arrieta or Tillman or Matusz get expensive and we might be tempted to ship one out.

[bigbird]

High school pitchers...be afraid...be very afraid... The majority of thes kids have been used and abused during their young age. High schools, Babe Ruth teams, Legion teams, the list goes on.

[crawdad]

High school pitchers...be afraid...be very afraid... The majority of thes kids have been used and abused during their young age. High schools, Babe Ruth teams, Legion teams, the list goes on.

And college pitchers haven't been overused? Do you pay attention to college baseball at all?

I'm not sure how much longer we have to hear about this. You do not know what you are talking about. High school and college pitchers suffer pretty much the same injury rate. The difficulty between the two is that in college you have more years of data, more years of tempting the injury bug, more filling out, and more stable lineups to face. Still with all of this . . . the only real statistical difference you see much of in terms of being successful are college southpaws. College lefties make quick work of minor leaguers and wind up at least throwing a few seasons as a middle reliever.

[bigbird]

And college pitchers haven't been overused? Do you pay attention to college baseball at all?

I'm not sure how much longer we have to hear about this. You do not know what you are talking about. High school and college pitchers suffer pretty much the same injury rate. The difficulty between the two is that in college you have more years of data, more years of tempting the injury bug, more filling out, and more stable lineups to face. Still with all of this . . . the only real statistical difference you see much of in terms of being successful are college southpaws. College lefties make quick work of minor leaguers and wind up at least throwing a few seasons as a middle reliever.


Where did I say anything about college pitchers???? If I were GM of the Nats I's take Ackley at #1 and come back with a pitcher at #10.

[crawdad]

Where did I say anything about college pitchers???? If I were GM of the Nats I's take Ackley at #1 and come back with a pitcher at #10.

By saying to be afraid of high school pitchers, it certainly seems that the correlative is that college pitchers are more of a sure thing. Anyway . . . I think you opinion of Ackley is awfully high.

[waroriole]

High school pitchers...be afraid...be very afraid... The majority of thes kids have been used and abused during their young age. High schools, Babe Ruth teams, Legion teams, the list goes on.

College pitchers pitched at all of these levels too.

[Stotle]

High school pitchers...be afraid...be very afraid... The majority of thes kids have been used and abused during their young age. High schools, Babe Ruth teams, Legion teams, the list goes on.

College arms play on the same junior/amateur teams, then log two to three years of being worked hard at a college program.

[allstar1579]

High school pitchers...be afraid...be very afraid... The majority of thes kids have been used and abused during their young age. High schools, Babe Ruth teams, Legion teams, the list goes on.

So you are saying we shouldn't ever draft a pitcher because of injury concerns and we should get nothing but position players and convert them to pitchers.

[Jimbo81]

Chris Tillman came out of HS...

[RZNJ]

Where did I say anything about college pitchers???? If I were GM of the Nats I's take Ackley at #1 and come back with a pitcher at #10.

Is it the money, signability, or just the fact that you don't want to take a pitcher at #1? Strasburg is head and shoulders above any prospect in this draft. You must have a good reason for taking a much lesser talent over him. If you think it's the risk factor, why take a pitcher at #10?

[LookinUp]

Two points:

1. It's not the case in legion, but in high school aren't most pitchers still limited to the number of innings/week they can pitch? With this protection in mind, I actually have the opinion that high school pitchers throw less pitches and log less innings than many college pitchers. They also pitch against far inferior talent, so their "stress" level probably isn't as high. Alternatively, their coaching is generally not as good, so they do assume some level of generalizable risk from that.

2. In general response to SG's thread, Per Malewski's article, AM seems to think that you can't make blanket assertions about differences between high school or college. He states that they've reviewed all of the data and reports (nice to hear) and determined that it really comes down to the circumstances of the individual player.

http://masnsports.com/2009/06/andy-macphail-on-the-draft.html