The Reality of It All

[Pruke]

I'm guessing the first four picks of this draft play out with the following four players taken before we pick:

1 Steven Strasburg RHP You may have heard of him by now, 50.4% K 5.2%BB, great stuff, his tears may cure cancer 20.8 SDSU 1 ↔
2 Dustin Ackley CF Draft's best hitter, .405/.511/.744 with 44 BB and 27 K, ++ runner should cover ground in CF 21.2 UNC 2 ↔
3 Tyler Matzek LHP Clean mechanics, good control, deep pitch repitroire, projection and polish…so everything 18.5 HS 3 ↔
4 Donavan Tate CF Tremendous athlete with fantastic five tool potential, UNC commit could be pricey 18.6 HS 4 ↔

Assuming that happens, now we're talking about the REAL Orioles selection.

Who do you think we take if it plays out this way?

[RVAbird]

I would go with Crow or Green if the top 4 played out like that - and I'd be happy with the pick. Alex White wouldn't be too far behind for me, though I know I'm still higher on him than others. After that come the guys you've listed.

[BaltimoreFan]

Why would Crow not be included in this poll?

[RZNJ]

I think Crow goes in the top 4 but if he's there I think the O's would take him. My next best guess would be Wheeler under your scenario.

[jets4ever]

Why would Crow not be included in this poll?

I was wondering the same thing?

[dcterp]

Given this list Crow would be my guess.

[TheOtherRipken]

I think Matzek could drop to us, and if he does I will be furious if we pass on him.

[ChaosLex]

Wheeler will be our pick, IMO. I think we'll select him over Matzek IF they're both available. Jordan sees something about the kid he likes.

[Pruke]

Re: Crow - there's just as much buzz regarding Alex White, Matt Purke, Gibson, Turner, Wheeler - -

Does Crow have ANY red flags?

Just curious what consensus is on this 5th pick given that I think they got the first four right (even if the order may change in which they were selected.

[Pruke]

Here are some quick notes on some of the guys who might be available:

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/193185-2009-mlb-mock-draft-picks-1-10/page/5)

Jacob Turner, RHP
Westminster Christian High School
Height: 6-5 Weight: 210 Age: 18 Bats: R Throws: R

Fastball – Speed: Low-90s
Command: His command is normally there, other times, not so much
Movement: Minimal movement, high in the zone
Grade: B+

Slider - Speed: Mid 70s
Command: Can miss high with this a lot, affects his pitch very much
Movement: A normal slider movement, if down in the zone it can be dominant
Grade: A-

Changeup – Speed: High 70s
Command: Has average command over this, like most high schoolers
Movement: Near average movement
Grade: B

Jacob Turner measures in as one of the biggest pitchers in the draft, and that makes Detroit Tigers GM, Dave Dombrowski, drool, as that has been their forte of his first-rounders over the years. Turner’s big frame makes scouts think he could throw mid-90s consistently one day.

Because his fastball is a little slow, he turns to his slider down in the zone, since he misses with the heater up in the zone a lot. The changeup needs work and has very little movement.

He is committed to North Carolina for next season, and could probably use the college ball to ready his arm for professional ball. Turner needs to improve his velocity, he could definitely do that at N.C.

Alex White, RHP
North Carolina University
Height: 6-3 Weight: 200 Age: 20 Bats: R Throws: R

Fastball – Speed: High-80s – Low-90s
Command: Nothing to brag about, but this is his best commanded pitch
Movement: Tailing action
Grade: B-

Curveball - Speed: Low-80s
Command: Minimal command over the curve, just tries to get it over the plate
Movement: Average curveball ‘curve’
Grade: C+

Slider - Speed: Low-Mid 80s
Command: Plus command
Movement: Slips away from righties, most promising pitch from him
Grade: A-

Changeup – Speed: High 70s
Command: This needs work on this pitch
Movement: When he throws one, its average, at best
Grade: C

The only other pitcher to have four pitches to show in this draft is Alex White, a junior at North Carolina. White was named the 2008 ACC Player of the Year from his successes last season in the Baby Blue uniform.

White has the ideal pitcher’s body. He was a two sport athlete in high school, as he also dominated the hard wood for the basketball team.

His arsenal of pitches are fantastic. A fastball that can hit 94 MPH with a slider that has a ton of potential. The changeup does need to improve though, especially the movement. He struggled early on in the 2009 season until he shut down the University of Miami in mid-April, now he’s back on track.

[Pruke]

What about Mychal Givens, RHP/SS

School & Hometown: Plant HS; Tampa, FL
Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Scouting Report: You can take a look at some video I took of Givens, what I thought of him from my first two looks, and my full thoughts from the initial Hot 30 rankings. Givens is an athletic and heady leader, a very good defender, and has a solid stroke with a little pop. I didn’t see enough size/projection (looks in person like 5′10, 175), power, or consistent hitability to project him as a first round pick, but realized that his track record, makeup, and performance give him upward mobility on draft boards. At the PG National showcase, he was up to 94 while flashing an above-average slider and changeup from a low 3/4 arm angle; similar to what I saw, but showing improvement across the board. As it stands now, there’s a slight lean from the people I’ve talked to for Givens to stay on the mound, but his progess on the mound and at the plate should be an interesting draft storyline to monitor.

(Markakis path to Majors from mound to field?)

[Stotle]

Here are some quick notes on some of the guys who might be available:

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/193185-2009-mlb-mock-draft-picks-1-10/page/5)

Jacob Turner, RHP
Westminster Christian High School
Height: 6-5 Weight: 210 Age: 18 Bats: R Throws: R

Fastball – Speed: Low-90s
Command: His command is normally there, other times, not so much
Movement: Minimal movement, high in the zone
Grade: B+

Slider - Speed: Mid 70s
Command: Can miss high with this a lot, affects his pitch very much
Movement: A normal slider movement, if down in the zone it can be dominant
Grade: A-

Changeup – Speed: High 70s
Command: Has average command over this, like most high schoolers
Movement: Near average movement
Grade: B

Jacob Turner measures in as one of the biggest pitchers in the draft, and that makes Detroit Tigers GM, Dave Dombrowski, drool, as that has been their forte of his first-rounders over the years. Turner’s big frame makes scouts think he could throw mid-90s consistently one day.

Because his fastball is a little slow, he turns to his slider down in the zone, since he misses with the heater up in the zone a lot. The changeup needs work and has very little movement.

He is committed to North Carolina for next season, and could probably use the college ball to ready his arm for professional ball. Turner needs to improve his velocity, he could definitely do that at N.C.

Alex White, RHP
North Carolina University
Height: 6-3 Weight: 200 Age: 20 Bats: R Throws: R

Fastball – Speed: High-80s – Low-90s
Command: Nothing to brag about, but this is his best commanded pitch
Movement: Tailing action
Grade: B-

Curveball - Speed: Low-80s
Command: Minimal command over the curve, just tries to get it over the plate
Movement: Average curveball ‘curve’
Grade: C+

Slider - Speed: Low-Mid 80s
Command: Plus command
Movement: Slips away from righties, most promising pitch from him
Grade: A-

Changeup – Speed: High 70s
Command: This needs work on this pitch
Movement: When he throws one, its average, at best
Grade: C

The only other pitcher to have four pitches to show in this draft is Alex White, a junior at North Carolina. White was named the 2008 ACC Player of the Year from his successes last season in the Baby Blue uniform.

White has the ideal pitcher’s body. He was a two sport athlete in high school, as he also dominated the hard wood for the basketball team.

His arsenal of pitches are fantastic. A fastball that can hit 94 MPH with a slider that has a ton of potential. The changeup does need to improve though, especially the movement. He struggled early on in the 2009 season until he shut down the University of Miami in mid-April, now he’s back on track.

I can't say I agree with much of this. How do you grade a curve and chenge for White and not mention his splitter, which flashes plus and has been his best and most consistent 2ndary pitch this year?

[Tmac3]

I think it is between three people, which ever falls. Ackley (could fall because the Mariners have recently said they might not want to pay the 6 million signing bonus, the Padres are cutting payroll so they do not want to pay the 6 mil, and the Pirates are cheap and will not pay the 6 mil) would be the best choice, he is the best hitter in the draft and if he gets by the Padres he is ours. Crow is arguably the best pitcher in the draft after Strasburg and already has Pro experience (he is pitching very well in an independent league right now). Lastly Scheppers, he is much like Crow, young and close to major league ready, those would be the best choices for the O's. Keith Law has Ackley ranked #2, Scheppers #3 and Crow #4, so all those picks could be good and end up being on the club in midsummer 2010. I don't believe the O's will take a high school prospect because the last high schooler that the O's took top ten has been in the minors for three years and is still only mediocre in Frederick (Billy Rowell).

[JTrea81]

If Ackley is there, he'll be the pick no doubt. Otherwise it will be Wheeler IMO...

[Big Mac]

If Ackley is there, he'll be the pick no doubt. Otherwise it will be Wheeler IMO...

I doubt Ackley drops to us, but if he does it would be foolish to pass on him, IMO.

I'd say in this scenario we take Crow, but of we end up taking Wheeler, I would be satisfied.

[Duke2010]

I'll be pretty happy with any of Crow, Matzek, or Wheeler. Of course, I have my preferences between them, but the upside is there for all three guys, and no matter what we'll be getting a high end pitching prospect.

[Greg Pappas]

I'll be pretty happy with any of Crow, Matzek, or Wheeler. Of course, I have my preferences between them, but the upside is there for all three guys, and no matter what we'll be getting a high end pitching prospect.

I agree...

After Matzek and Crow, I prefer Jacob Turner but just barely. Whomever we select should have us excited. :)

Matzek
Crow
Turner
White
Miller
Purke
Wheeler

Scheppers is the wildcard in this draft, but I believe we'll avoid him.

[Duke2010]

I agree...

After Matzek and Crow, I prefer Jacob Turner but just barely. Whomever we select should have us excited. :)

Matzek
Crow
Turner
White
Miller
Purke
Wheeler

Scheppers is the wildcard in this draft, but I believe we'll avoid him.

Pretty dang good list to choose from there. Tuesday should be fun:)

[allstar1579]

Back from the depths of graduation parties and QT with the kiddo...I missed a lot of good convo apparently, still catching up...

My preference would go:

Strasburg
Matzek
Wheeler
Ackley
S. Miller
Crow

I think. Then again I haven't thought about it in 2 days, so I retain the right to change my mind 34 times between now and Tuesday ;)

[ShoelesJoe]

I'm guessing the first four picks of this draft play out with the following four players taken before we pick:

1 Steven Strasburg RHP You may have heard of him by now, 50.4% K 5.2%BB, great stuff, his tears may cure cancer 20.8 SDSU 1 ↔
2 Dustin Ackley CF Draft's best hitter, .405/.511/.744 with 44 BB and 27 K, ++ runner should cover ground in CF 21.2 UNC 2 ↔
3 Tyler Matzek LHP Clean mechanics, good control, deep pitch repitroire, projection and polish…so everything 18.5 HS 3 ↔
4 Donavan Tate CF Tremendous athlete with fantastic five tool potential, UNC commit could be pricey 18.6 HS 4 ↔

Assuming that happens, now we're talking about the REAL Orioles selection.

Who do you think we take if it plays out this way?

If that's how the 1st four picks go I have to think we'll grab Crow with #5.

[allstar1579]

If that's how the 1st four picks go I have to think we'll grab Crow with #5.

I think Wheeler and S. Miller (I'm higher on him than most) have more upside than Crow. That wrist action of his screams future elbow injury, and when you have guys that can just about match Crow pitch for pitch out of HS you have to go hmmmmm.

[ShoelesJoe]

I think Wheeler and S. Miller (I'm higher on him than most) have more upside than Crow. That wrist action of his screams future elbow injury, and when you have guys that can just about match Crow pitch for pitch out of HS you have to go hmmmmm.

I hear what you're saying, and you know more than I do about these guys. I'm just leery of an arm that's still 4-5 years away from contributing at the big league level, and the workload / possible injuries between now and then. At least the college guys are partway through that gauntlet, and should be up within a couple years.

Of course not all young arms are created equal. I'd take the future of Wheeler, Miller, and Matzek over that of NC's Alex White any day of the week. But then again, I still can't figure out how White's seen as a top ten draft pick anyway.

Another point in favor of Crow IMO is that he was seen last year -- in what was considered a deeper draft -- as one of the two best pitchers available (just behind Matusz). Now, it appears that nothing's changed wrt his abilities as he's putting up good numbers in the independent leagues. So we could wind up with the two best pitchers from a deep '08 draft, both of whom should be able to contribute to the big league club within 2/3 years.

[allstar1579]

I hear what you're saying, and you know more than I do about these guys. I'm just leery of an arm that's still 4-5 years away from contributing at the big league level, and the workload / possible injuries between now and then. At least the college guys are partway through that gauntlet, and should be up within a couple years.

Of course not all young arms are created equal. I'd take the future of Wheeler, Miller, and Matzek over that of NC's Alex White any day of the week. But then again, I still can't figure out how White's seen as a top ten draft pick anyway.

Another point in favor of Crow IMO is that he was seen last year -- in what was considered a deeper draft -- as one of the two best pitchers available (just behind Matusz). Now, it appears that nothing's changed wrt his abilities as he's putting up good numbers in the independent leagues. So we could wind up with the two best pitchers from a deep '08 draft, both of whom should be able to contribute to the big league club within 2/3 years.

Yeah, don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with your argument at all, it's typical debate going into the draft.

Last year's draft was really hitter deep, but I wasn't impressed with the pitching, and then this year is just the coin flip to that. I think Crow is ok and all, I think he'll get there to the show, but I'm not sure he doesn't get turned into a reliever at some point. I see almost a Dave Hernandez situation with him. I'd rather take a shot at Matzek, Wheeler or Miller, give them time to grow while we are seeing what we have with the current batch, and then hope we've got the next Kershaw or Hanson on our hands. Even if we didn't keep them, those kinds of pitching prospects can get you whatever you want in baseball right now.

[bigelow]

Yeah this is a great debate and im starting to zero in on high school pitchers. You can have control of the amount of innings they throw, you can change there mechanics if needed and last they are getting professional coaching from day 1.

[allstar1579]

Yeah this is a great debate and im starting to zero in on high school pitchers. You can have control of the amount of innings they throw, you can change there mechanics if needed and last they are getting professional coaching from day 1.

That is another point I'm a big fan of, I know guys like Stotle will tell you the talent you need to look for is either there or it's not and you shouldn't need to change a guy too much, (and he is right) but I'm a big proponent of professional coaching versus college coaching with the top HS pitchers.

Whether it is bad habits learned for the sake of winning over developing, or issues with not taking proper care of their arms (I don't think it's a strict overuse thing, it's just a matter of taking the proper care while you do it).

[Stotle]

That is another point I'm a big fan of, I know guys like Stotle will tell you the talent you need to look for is either there or it's not and you shouldn't need to change a guy too much, (and he is right) but I'm a big proponent of professional coaching versus college coaching with the top HS pitchers.

Whether it is bad habits learned for the sake of winning over developing, or issues with not taking proper care of their arms (I don't think it's a strict overuse thing, it's just a matter of taking the proper care while you do it).

I wouldn't phrase it the way you have, but yeah talent is talent. Pro coaching is preferable to HS coaching, of course. For me there are two types of elite college pitchers -- 1) those that were solid but needed to work on stuff (think of a live arm with little feel or a projectable body that wasn't truly draft ready in HS) ready, and 2) elite HSers that are committed to going to school.

It's seldom that you have an elite HSer that is signable, but ends up going to school. So, I can't really say there is generally an instance where a player is better off going pro than college for coaching purposes. I want a player to have certain minimal skills or else I'm wasting pro developmental resources on someone who really isn't ready.

So, yeah, I'd obviously rather have Wheeler in my system than wait for him two years from now. I'd rather have Chris Jenkins in my system now, but I'm not likely to pry him from Stanford. So you take what you can get and try to take advantage of the talent when it's available without reaching and spending your pro resources trying to mine talent (grabbing someone that isn't a potential prospect and trying to develop him into one).

[bigelow]

I think guys like Stotle are right for example Loewen, Cabrera, and Riley all had the talent to make it but from the late 90's to mid 2000's our minor league players were not progressing can be contributed to our front office. I have confidence in Andy taking a high school pitcher and moving him along the right way.

Right now i am Matzek 1. If he really is throwing 90-94 comfortably from the left side and can pump it up to mid 90's when needed sound like a kershaw/ Bedard. I think he can actually go faster through the minors because of his clean mechanics i would not be so worried about his number of innings.

Then i am confused. I like Turner next, then Wheeler, and Crow and would be happy with any of them.

Im a pretty big fan of Turner and think the team who takes him should take him slow and make him pitch backwards for his first couple of years.

[Greg Pappas]

I think guys like Stotle are right for example Loewen, Cabrera, and Riley all had the talent to make it but from the late 90's to mid 2000's our minor league players were not progressing can be contributed to our front office. I have confidence in Andy taking a high school pitcher and moving him along the right way.

Right now i am Matzek 1. If he really is throwing 90-94 comfortably from the left side and can pump it up to mid 90's when needed sound like a kershaw/ Bedard. I think he can actually go faster through the minors because of his clean mechanics i would not be so worried about his number of innings.

Then i am confused. I like Turner next, then Wheeler, and Crow and would be happy with any of them.

Im a pretty big fan of Turner and think the team who takes him should take him slow and make him pitch backwards for his first couple of years.

The mod in me must point out (in bold) the things you need to work on when posting. ;)

The poster in me agrees that Turner should be highly regarded, and interestingly (at last check) BA has him ranked as the top HS arm in the draft, over Matzek. They may be right... but I'd lean Matzek by a nose. :)

[ShoelesJoe]

Its interesting that all the choices for this poll are pitchers. Do the offensive struggles the Orioles are going through change anybody's opinions as to whether we reach for a bat we might not have taken a couple of weeks ago? I know the rule is don't draft for need, but it's already a given that our minor league system has more impact pitchers on the way up than impact position players.

If we do draft another pitcher should it just be the first step in trading one or more of our young studs for an infielder?

[Greg Pappas]

Its interesting that all the choices for this poll are pitchers. Do the offensive struggles the Orioles are going through change anybody's opinions as to whether we reach for a bat we might not have taken a couple of weeks ago? I know the rule is don't draft for need, but it's already a given that our minor league system has more impact pitchers on the way up than impact position players.

If we do draft another pitcher should it just be the first step in trading one or more of our young studs for an infielder?

Draft the best player on your board: that's Jordan's rule. We have young ML studs at CF, RF, C, and possibly LF... as well as a good veteran 2B'man. We have no young stud pitchers at the ML level... yet. Hopefully they'll arrive as advertised, but to say we have enough is not necessarily accurate.

[bigelow]

You can never have too much pitching. Im willing to go out on a limb and say that with Wieters, Jones, Markakis, and Roberts that our offense will be ok. If we do get lucky and have to much pitching we could easily trade it away. Beckett for Hanley or Andrew Miller for Cabrera type of deal