Prospect Hype

[McLovin]

I had a conversation with my Dad a month or so ago, that seemed a bit like deja vu. The topic was "the O's are getting close, help is on the way." Maybe it's the fact that I don't have as much 'experience' to jade me, but I have a generally optimistic outlook on the Orioles most of the time. I've had the same conversation with my Dad and others over the years - "no, this time, really, the cavalry is coming."

OK, I've bought into the hope of prospects more than once. My Dad's point that was he's heard it so many times before, and wake him when they have some MLB success.

I think things are different this time, I really do. Why? Call it a greater body of evidence. Our prospects are working things out in the minors. They're proving themselves. They're getting promoted because they earned it. They're having success each step of the way. They're dominating each step of the way (Wieters, Reimold, Snyder, Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman, Hernandez, Patton, Britton, etc. - all have played at an MiL All-Star level at times).

Take Adam Loewen for example. For so long, we heard how great he was going to be. We wanted to believe how great he was going to be. He was promoted, but he really never forced the issue. His Options forced the issue. He never really dominated at any level, outside of Aberdeen. This is just one example. We can talk about Daniel Cabrera, Matt Riley, Larry Bigbie, Luis Matos - heck, any number of over hyped busts.

I guess that's what we do - hype prospects. I think things are different now. I think the hype is legit.

Of course I always do.

[glenn__davis]

I had a similar conversation with my wife. I told her the O's would be looking really good in another year or two, and she said I'd been saying that for 5 years. It definitely sort've made me look at how I viewed the team and whether we're being overly optimistic now.

I don't think we are for a number of reasons. First is that for the last year or so, guys that have arrived from the minor leagues look far more prepared and polished. The other big thing, obviously, is pitching depth. In the past we've sort've had to hang our hat on a few guys. Now we should have significant enough depth that even when a few of our guys flame out or get hurt there will be others to take their place. And that's without even dipping into FA.

I think optimism for the future of the team is very warranted. But your father, and my wife, have legitimate points that until it shows up on a ML field, it doesn't mean much.

[RZNJ]

You are right. Prospects were overhyped and rushed. Not only are the prosepcts as good or better than the best we had at different times, there are just more of them. Of course, Riley & Loewen both fell to injury as well, but the only defense against that is again in the numbers. It sounds like the big three are all going to be better rounded pitchers than either Loewen or Cabrera were when they came to the majors as well. If you're an Oriole fan and you don't have hope, you don't have anything.

[baltimoriole]

You bring up good points, however none of the O's prospects before now were as highly ranked as the current batch of O's prospects. Essentially the O's have 4 top 50 prospects. Before this current group I can't think of an Oriole being ranked that high.

[QBsILLEST1]

Yes, if it wasnt for injury, I to this day believe Riley would be a very good ML pitcher. Loewen as stated, never really dominated any level outside of Aberdeen. He was honestly mediocre and possibly wasnt as good as advertised in HS. Or maybe he didnt translate his skill well to pro ball, though it seemed when he was with the big club, I dont remember but I think it was 07, he was about to have a break out season and was pitching well at first, but then fell to injury and never made it back.

Before, when we hung our hats on guys like Penn who was rated at best somewhere around the 60th best prospect in the MLB. That guy would be a 2nd tier prospect in our current system. We have depth of top notch TOR starters. We have depth in top notch middle rotation starters, and even some good Back of the rotation guys. Though last year when we called up our 2 pitching prospects Liz and Olson and they both faltered, it made me pessimistic towards the success rate of our minor league pitchers in general, but after watching the successes of Hernandez and Bergesen, I am much more confident in our coaches and players coming up.

If you made an all star team from our best prospects from 95-2004 , and then compare it to our 2009 top 20 list, our current top 20 trumps that, even with Markakis on it.....

[LookinUp]

I love all of the potential, but I'm still in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode. Here's what I think.

Kakes, Jones, Reimold, Wieters and Roberts are all going to be above average for the next couple of years. Roberts will drop off but the others will get better. These guys, and maybe Snyder/Scott, will have to carry our offense. Are they good enough to match-up with the Yankees/Red Sox/Rays?

The big three are legit. If none get injured, I believe we'll have a very strong top 3 pitching staff.

Hernandez and Erbe will, at a minimum, be solid bullpen contributors. Johnson will also continue to be solid.

After these guys, I have questions.

4th-5th starter - I think Bergesen will be fine, but unspectacular here. Berken probably won't last. Patton's intriguing, but his velocity does have me worried. Hill's control leads me to think he just won't stick. Guthrie probably won't be around. I'm not sold on Hernandez because of his control and I'm not sold on Erbe because of his "tired" arm plus reports that about his high energy delivery. So, I think our 4-5 starters are likely to be ok, but not necessarily as good as say the Yankees and Red Sox.

Bullpen - I like Sherrill, Johnson, Albers, Bass, Hernandez and Erbe in the pen moving forward. So, couple that with a guy or two who falls out of the rotation (Uehara, Berken, other) and maybe a guy or two in AA/AAA (Perez, Mickolio most likely) and the pen looks solid.

SS-3b-1b - First looks best, but I want to see Snyder hit in the majors before I annoint him as belonging with the guys at the top. We're relatively empty at SS and 3b, but I think we can find ok players to fill those roles. In a nutshell, we're likely to be worse at these positions than our competition.

To make a long winded answer a little short...I think we'll be much improved, but a lot has to go exactly right to even allow us to be in the same ball park as NY, Boston and Tampa. I think we need to add 1-3 more studs (likely through trade/FA) to this stable before I feel comfortable.

[Frobby]

I get the same reaction out of my friends. And it's certainly true that a few years ago I was touting Bedard/Cabrera/Loewen/Penn/Olson, or some other variant involving John Maine or Radhames Liz or whoever.

Objectively speaking though, the prospects we have now are higher-rated by national publications, and there are far more of them, so that if certain prospects fail, there are others around to pick up the slack. And generally, they have been brought along more deliberately and should be more ready when they get here.

Still, to my friends, it's "I'll believe it when I see it." And I can't blame them.

[QBsILLEST1]

I love all of the potential, but I'm still in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode. Here's what I think.

Kakes, Jones, Reimold, Wieters and Roberts are all going to be above average for the next couple of years. Roberts will drop off but the others will get better. These guys, and maybe Snyder/Scott, will have to carry our offense. Are they good enough to match-up with the Yankees/Red Sox/Rays?

The big three are legit. If none get injured, I believe we'll have a very strong top 3 pitching staff.

Hernandez and Erbe will, at a minimum, be solid bullpen contributors. Johnson will also continue to be solid.

After these guys, I have questions.

4th-5th starter - I think Bergesen will be fine, but unspectacular here. Berken probably won't last. Patton's intriguing, but his velocity does have me worried. Hill's control leads me to think he just won't stick. Guthrie probably won't be around. I'm not sold on Hernandez because of his control and I'm not sold on Erbe because of his "tired" arm plus reports that about his high energy delivery. So, I think our 4-5 starters are likely to be ok, but not necessarily as good as say the Yankees and Red Sox.

Bullpen - I like Sherrill, Johnson, Albers, Bass, Hernandez and Erbe in the pen moving forward. So, couple that with a guy or two who falls out of the rotation (Uehara, Berken, other) and maybe a guy or two in AA/AAA (Perez, Mickolio most likely) and the pen looks solid.

SS-3b-1b - First looks best, but I want to see Snyder hit in the majors before I annoint him as belonging with the guys at the top. We're relatively empty at SS and 3b, but I think we can find ok players to fill those roles. In a nutshell, we're likely to be worse at these positions than our competition.

To make a long winded answer a little short...I think we'll be much improved, but a lot has to go exactly right to even allow us to be in the same ball park as NY, Boston and Tampa. I think we need to add 1-3 more studs (likely through trade/FA) to this stable before I feel comfortable.


In those #4 and 5 slots, I honestly think we will be strong. Bergesen IMO will be around an ERA of 4.00 and eat innings and keep the ball in the park. For the last slot, between Hernandez, Erbe and Britton, someone will fill it and pitch above average. Erbe, whether in the pen or in a starting role has the highest ceiling and IMO will be the best of those 3. I really hope he can stay a starter because his upside rivals Tillman's. Britton really has no reason to not remain a starter and will also keep the ball in the yard. Then Hobgood will be stepping in not too long from next year. He has a good chance to move fast....IMO our rotation will be fine and will easily match up with Yanks and Sox. Our offense should as well, between Wieters, Snyder, Roberts, Jones, Kakes, Reimold and Scott we will be very very solid. I expect AM to buy atleast 1 big bat or trade for it which will be either a 3B or SS. I just hope our bullpen will be good.....It should be though with any of our sta`rters who dont stick in the rotation or are squeezed out due to overcrowding...

[Redgrape]

I think the difference is that this year we have much better prospect and are a much better and younger team than we have been in the past.

[Hooded Viper]

I get the same reaction out of my friends. And it's certainly true that a few years ago I was touting Bedard/Cabrera/Loewen/Penn/Olson, or some other variant involving John Maine or Radhames Liz or whoever.

Objectively speaking though, the prospects we have now are higher-rated by national publications, and there are far more of them, so that if certain prospects fail, there are others around to pick up the slack. And generally, they have been brought along more deliberately and should be more ready when they get here.

Still, to my friends, it's "I'll believe it when I see it." And I can't blame them.


Nailed it again. I think the fact that other organizations are now touting our youngsters is a major sign. I completely understand the skeptics point of view but I feel, like most here, that this is the healthiest the O's have been since the late 70's or early 80's in terms of pure talent and depth(I may be wrong but I don't recall the O's having a top 5 farmsystem since that period). And that is a beautiful thing.

[LookinUp]

In those #4 and 5 slots, I honestly think we will be strong. Bergesen IMO will be around an ERA of 4.00 and eat innings and keep the ball in the park. For the last slot, between Hernandez, Erbe and Britton, someone will fill it and pitch above average. Erbe, whether in the pen or in a starting role has the highest ceiling and IMO will be the best of those 3. I really hope he can stay a starter because his upside rivals Tillman's. Britton really has no reason to not remain a starter and will also keep the ball in the yard.

What do you think is Britton's ETA? I'd say that he'll almost certainly be in the minors until 2011. Then, in 2011, he'll need to establish himself in the majors. So, if he has no setbacks, I'm thinking he could be quite effective beginning in 2012.

If Erbe can be a healthy starter, I become much more optimistic.

[glenn__davis]

What do you think is Britton's ETA? I'd say that he'll almost certainly be in the minors until 2011. Then, in 2011, he'll need to establish himself in the majors. So, if he has no setbacks, I'm thinking he could be quite effective beginning in 2012.

If Erbe can be a healthy starter, I become much more optimistic.

Well your post also, for the most part, assumes no players acquired via FA or trade. There's not a system in all of baseball that can sustain itself entirely. You have to think that MacPhail will look to FAs a little more seriously when he feels we're ready to compete.

[LookinUp]

Well your post also, for the most part, assumes no players acquired via FA or trade. There's not a system in all of baseball that can sustain itself entirely. You have to think that MacPhail will look to FAs a little more seriously when he feels we're ready to compete.

Very true.

[QBsILLEST1]

Very true.

But the question is who? Im yet to see AM seriously consider signing a big name FA except for Tex, and who knows how serious AM really was....We need this big bat, and I think we get that big bat by trade not by FA.....I guess we shall see....

[hoosiers]

Orioles friends I have are of the same mindset as above - believe it when they see it.

People who follow other franchises are more aware of the young help arriving this year in Bmore, but less knowledgeable that we still have plenty of quality in the upper minors.

I can understand the skeptics, but the fact is our system is higher rated than at any point in nearly 15 years. We have significantly more depth to the system than in a long, long time. We used to have multiple 23-25+ year olds in our system making up a good portion of the BA Top 30 in the prospect handbook - guys like Whiteside, Gil, Foster, etc - fringe major leaguers with little upside. We still have some of those guys, of course, but our top 20 is mostly very young, recently drafted prospects with legit upside. Remember, BA rated Berken and Bergesen around/outside our top 15 - so, there is plenty of talent in our sytem.

As we ramp up international spend, we will only improve upon the strong depth in our system.

[Arthur_Bryant]

What do you think is Britton's ETA? I'd say that he'll almost certainly be in the minors until 2011. Then, in 2011, he'll need to establish himself in the majors. So, if he has no setbacks, I'm thinking he could be quite effective beginning in 2012.

If Erbe can be a healthy starter, I become much more optimistic.

The composition of the MLB rotation will have a lot to say about that.

It's very possible that everyone coming in after Matusz will have a tough ceiling to crack.

[QBsILLEST1]

The composition of the MLB rotation will have a lot to say about that.

It's very possible that everyone coming in after Matusz will have a tough ceiling to crack.

Ahh, I dunno, You do realize that Britton has a better ERA in the same level as Matusz and is 2 years younger (If I remember right). Britton is no Matusz, but he is a very good pitcher and just based off of ceiling and projection, if I fabricated a starting 5 out of our entire minor league system, Britton would be #4 or 5 on it....

[Arthur_Bryant]

Ahh, I dunno, You do realize that Britton has a better ERA in the same level as Matusz and is 2 years younger (If I remember right). Britton is no Matusz, but he is a very good pitcher and just based off of ceiling and projection, if I fabricated a starting 5 out of our entire minor league system, Britton would be #4 or 5 on it....

Yeah, I know their ERAs. I also don't pay a lot of attention to ERA in the low minors.

Besides, Britton and everybody else still will have to get past the rotation that's in place at that time. And when he's ready, it's entirely possible that:

A) The O's will have five solid to excellent starters already in the rotation; and,

B) The O's will be a winning team, and hence unlikely to shuffle assignments just to give major league innings to somebody doing well in the minors. The fact that Britton had a slightly better ERA than Matusz at High A won't carry a lot of water.

That's how it goes with winning teams: they stick with what's working. It usually takes an injury, a trade, or a really bad slump for a blocked player to get a shot. I'm sure you think that Britton projects better than Brad Bergesen, but if Bergesen is still pitching effectively in 2011, he keeps his job. Ceiling, in this case, will matter less than timing.

BTW if you are doing projections, a K:BB ratio under 2:1 is somewhat worrisome for a pitching prospect at High A. (Britton is 59:31). Ideally you'd like to see 3:1; Matusz has been better than that (75:21).

[rcm134]

And all those high prospects came at a price....terrible baseball for years.
I'm a Phillies fan, first and foremost, and what I'm beginning to see with the O's is exactly what the Phils went through in the late 90's and early 00's. Owners who didn't spend big money on free agents and older players lead to terrible baseball...terrible baseball lead to high draft choices, high draft choices meant better talent and once that better talent has time to mature and jell......hello playoffs and World Series!
BUT the Phils didn't have the Yankees and Sox in their divison spending money like water to just buy what they didn't have and needed.....
Things are getting better for the O's, yes.....but if the Phil's history is any gauge.....it's still going to be a long road

[justD]

It's very possible that everyone coming in after Matusz will have a tough ceiling to crack.

The mantra of "grow pitching, buy hitting" doesn't necessarily limit us to using big bucks to fill in the position player/big hitter holes, does it?

I thought one of the advantages of stocking up on a lot of pitching inventory on the farm was that at some point, they can be used to "buy hitting."

AM used Olson to obtain Pie, and Penn to obtain Andino. Imagine what he could do if he did want to exchange some combination of guys like Erbe, or Beato, or Patton, or who knows who else that we've got coming up, for a premier hitter.

The above post by rcm134 may sum things up well re: MFY and Red Sox expenditures, but honestly, MacPhail seems pretty much a wizard when it comes to making the most of the assets he's got on hand. I try to remind myself how valuable those assets might become whenever getting concerned about anyone, especially pitchers, getting blocked.

[Arthur_Bryant]

The mantra of "grow pitching, buy hitting" doesn't necessarily limit us to using big bucks to fill in the position player/big hitter holes, does it?

I thought one of the advantages of stocking up on a lot of pitching inventory on the farm was that at some point, they can be used to "buy hitting."

AM used Olson to obtain Pie, and Penn to obtain Andino. Imagine what he could do if he did want to exchange some combination of guys like Erbe, or Beato, or Patton, or who knows who else that we've got coming up, for a premier hitter.

The above post by rcm134 may sum things up well re: MFY and Red Sox expenditures, but honestly, MacPhail seems pretty much a wizard when it comes to making the most of the assets he's got on hand. I try to remind myself how valuable those assets might become whenever getting concerned about anyone, especially pitchers, getting blocked.

I agree completely. I think the right young pitcher or two under the right circumstances could bring back a shockingly good return.

But trades don't always happen at will, esp. if you're picky about your return -- and I think AM is. He'll hang on to his assets until he gets what he wants; or, at least, until the cost of hanging on becomes prohibitive.

I think he'll also hold back a certain reserve, stashed either in the MLB pen or at Norfolk. Having people blocked is probably part of the plan.

The point is that the path to the rotation for the arms in the 2nd wave just isn't going to be as easy as it is for Tillman, Arrieta, etc.

I hope you're right about MacPhail's wizardy. How he handles this surplus is going to be a big test.

[QBsILLEST1]

I agree completely. I think the right young pitcher or two under the right circumstances could bring back a shockingly good return.

But trades don't always happen at will, esp. if you're picky about your return -- and I think AM is. He'll hang on to his assets until he gets what he wants; or, at least, until the cost of hanging on becomes prohibitive.

I think he'll also hold back a certain reserve, stashed either in the MLB pen or at Norfolk. Having people blocked is probably part of the plan.

The point is that the path to the rotation for the arms in the 2nd wave just isn't going to be as easy as it is for Tillman, Arrieta, etc.

I hope you're right about MacPhail's wizardy. How he handles this surplus is going to be a big test.

I agree with this, and I believe that Britton, Erbe and Hobgood will be coming along around the same time making it even tougher. Erbe will probably crack the rotation before Britton since he is ahead developmentally. I just hope everyone gets their fair look.....

[jeffstonefan]

I have an old promotional poster put out by the O's in the late 80's entitled "Baseball Future STARS" featuring Bob Milacki, Jeff Ballard, Craig Worthington, Brady Anderson, and Steve Finley. Almost funny now when you think about it.

With the amount of information available today to the fans via the internet, (minor league stats, broadcasts, etc...) its easier for fans to get exited about minor league prospects than ever before. Are they any good? We will find out soon enough....