Who is the better prospect, Spoone or Britton?

[QBsILLEST1]

It was a major hit to our minor league system when we found out Spoone was going down due to labrum surgery....He was a very valuable prospect for us with arguably the best stuff in the system, how could we ever replace him? He gets ground outs and strike outs, what a valuable combination!

Well, I found out last year that I was wrong in thinking that we had no other similar prospects to Spoone. His name is Zach Britton. Last year he had a good year, but I didnt know how legit Britton was, all I knew was that since he made his pro debut in 06 that he had improved his #'s every year, especially the K's. Well this year, Britton is making a bid to be a top pitching prospect. He amped his fastball up for this year touching the mid 90's, he is rapidly imrpoving his change up which both of these things caused his K/9 to finally touch 9.

After looking at both Spoone and Britton's stats over the past few seasons, I saw something that shocked me, it wasnt that Britton and Spoone ahad similar #'s, that wouldnt really shock me. What shocked me was that Britton at the same age and at the same level is posting better #'s than Spoone did(and this was Spoone's break out year). Britton is K'ing more batters, by an average of 1 more K per game. He also is posting an ERA that is more than a full run better than Spoone did, not to mention that Britton is giving up less HR's than Spoone did as well.....Yes, shocking...shocking in that Spoone was touted as one of our top pitching prospects and Britton is still overlooked and underrated.....Expect big things from this kid, hes the real deal, and possibly better than we knew.....

[RZNJ]

Britton sits around 89-92 from all reports. Spoone was more of a 92-95 kind of a guy. I think we had one report from Britton's catcher that he hit 95 on the gun. Every other report I've ever seen says that he sits low 90's. The stats might be smiilar or favor Britton but the scouts like the velo.

IMO, a healthy Spoone is the better prospect but we all know that doesn't tell us who turns out better.

[QBsILLEST1]

Britton sits around 89-92 from all reports. Spoone was more of a 92-95 kind of a guy. I think we had one report from Britton's catcher that he hit 95 on the gun. Every other report I've ever seen says that he sits low 90's. The stats might be smiilar or favor Britton but the scouts like the velo.

IMO, a healthy Spoone is the better prospect but we all know that doesn't tell us who turns out better.

Yeah, Britton touches 95 and sits in the lower 90's with his sinker, he throws a bit softer, but K's more people. So hes doing something better than Spoone to get more K's....I like a healthy Spoone's ceiling more, but Britton may be the better pitcher at the same point in their careers....

[RZNJ]

Yeah, Britton touches 95 and sits in the lower 90's with his sinker, he throws a bit softer, but K's more people. So hes doing something better than Spoone to get more K's....I like a healthy Spoone's ceiling more, but Britton may be the better pitcher at the same point in their careers....

I think the thing with the 95mph is this. Is the 95 something he can dial it up to when he needs it or is it just something that happens on occasion? I think therer's a big difference. Until I hear differently, I have to think it's the latter. Are Britton's numbers better at age 21 than Spoone's were? Maybe. That still doesn't make him a better prospect or even a better pitcher at the same age.

[Frobby]

I am treating Spoone as a lost cause, until he comes back and proves otherwise. In any event, Britton has been a bit more consistent in his career than Spoone was. I think he's a better prospect than Spoone was before his injury.

[RZNJ]

I am treating Spoone as a lost cause, until he comes back and proves otherwise. In any event, Britton has been a bit more consistent in his career than Spoone was. I think he's a better prospect than Spoone was before his injury.

Considering that Spoone's career, pre-injury consisted of two full years with one at Delmarva and one at Frederick, it's odd that he gets marked down for inconsistency. Some would call the inconsistency steady progression. He just kept getting better and better. That's the kind of inconsistency I'd like all of our prospects to have. Spoone wrapped up a really good year at Frederick by dominating in the playoffs with 2 complete games, IIRC. You have to wonder if that contributed to his shoulder problems the next spring.

[QBsILLEST1]

I think the thing with the 95mph is this. Is the 95 something he can dial it up to when he needs it or is it just something that happens on occasion? I think therer's a big difference. Until I hear differently, I have to think it's the latter. Are Britton's numbers better at age 21 than Spoone's were? Maybe. That still doesn't make him a better prospect or even a better pitcher at the same age.

Yeah, but what evidence do you have that he rarely touches 95? It has been noted in other reports that he can amp it up to 95 when he has to. Britton K's more people, whether that attributed to him having better stuff, more pitchability or what, there is a reason that a guy with very similar stuff is K'ing more people and has a better ERA than the other. I wasnt very informed on Spoone's secondary pitches, but what was his 3rd pitch and how good was it?

Britton has 3 good pitches and keeps the ball on the ground and over his career has had better control.

[QBsILLEST1]

Considering that Spoone's career, pre-injury consisted of two full years with one at Delmarva and one at Frederick, it's odd that he gets marked down for inconsistency. Some would call the inconsistency steady progression. He just kept getting better and better. That's the kind of inconsistency I'd like all of our prospects to have. Spoone wrapped up a really good year at Frederick by dominating in the playoffs with 2 complete games, IIRC. You have to wonder if that contributed to his shoulder problems the next spring.

It may very well have contributed to his arm injuries, I never thought about that....And just as Spoone progressed as he went through the minors, Britton has as well, every single season since 2006...

[Frobby]

Considering that Spoone's career, pre-injury consisted of two full years with one at Delmarva and one at Frederick, it's odd that he gets marked down for inconsistency. Some would call the inconsistency steady progression. He just kept getting better and better. That's the kind of inconsistency I'd like all of our prospects to have. Spoone wrapped up a really good year at Frederick by dominating in the playoffs with 2 complete games, IIRC. You have to wonder if that contributed to his shoulder problems the next spring.

Spoone (Delmarva, age 20): 129 IP, 8.2 H/9, 5.6 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.13 K/BB, 3.56 ERA
Britton (Delmarva, age 20): 147.1 IP, 7.2 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, 3.12 ERA

Spoone (Frederick, age 21), 152 IP, 6.4 H/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.99 K/BB, 3.26 ERA
Britton (Frederick, age 21): 75.2 IP, 7.5 H/9, 4.0 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 2.21 K/BB, 2.14 ERA

I agree with you that Spoone was getting better and better as 2007 went along, but I'd still give Britton the edge. He's having a helluva year.

[RZNJ]

Yeah, but what evidence do you have that he rarely touches 95? It has been noted in other reports that he can amp it up to 95 when he has to. Britton K's more people, whether that attributed to him having better stuff, more pitchability or what, there is a reason that a guy with very similar stuff is K'ing more people and has a better ERA than the other. I wasnt very informed on Spoone's secondary pitches, but what was his 3rd pitch and how good was it?

Britton has 3 good pitches and keeps the ball on the ground and over his career has had better control.

First of all, let me say that I'm very happy and impressed with Britton up to this point. I guess Avencil would be the best source for this. Maybe he can chime in and tell us how often Britton dials it up into the 93-95 mph territory. I only remember the Jospeh quote about Britton hitting 95 on the gun. I may have missed some other bits along the way. They both pitched at Frederick at age 21. The numbers are very close, although Britton certainly has a clear edge in ERA and even homers allowed. I'm mainly going on reports from Tony and the Baseball America scouting reports. They have Spoone with a 93-95 mph fastball, a power curve, and a developing change. Britton is described as having a good stuff, including a low 90's fastball, a slider, and a developing change. I think the numbers slightly support Britton. I think the scouting reports mostly favored Spoone. BTW, at Frederick Spoone ended his Carolina League year with these numbers in August/September

58 IP
39 H
14 BB
53 K's

70% GB rate.

The numbers to date give Britton an edge in K rate, HR rate, ERA.
Spoone gets an edge in walk rate, avg. against, WHIP, GB%,LD%.

It's an interesting question. Britton's numbers are very impressive.

[RVAbird]

Yeah, but what evidence do you have that he rarely touches 95? It has been noted in other reports that he can amp it up to 95 when he has to. Britton K's more people, whether that attributed to him having better stuff, more pitchability or what, there is a reason that a guy with very similar stuff is K'ing more people and has a better ERA than the other. I wasnt very informed on Spoone's secondary pitches, but what was his 3rd pitch and how good was it?

Britton has 3 good pitches and keeps the ball on the ground and over his career has had better control.

QB, I like your scouting coverage and appreciate what you bring to the table in the minor league and draft boards. I'm glad you started posting.

If I may politely make a suggestion, though, it seems that you are a bit too quick to get carried away with a pitcher's velocity because a report comes out saying he can "touch" a certain number.

I've now seen you mention Matusz, Tillman, Hobgood and others as throwing in the high 90s when this is really just not true. Now Britton throws his sinker in the mid 90s? Reports come out all the time that so and so touched 97 or 98 at a game, but they really should be discounted until we see a pitcher do it consistently.

I don't have time to see all of these guys pitch regularly, and I've never seen Hobgood in person, but I am very skeptical that any of them is a mid or upper 90s pitcher at this point. It is my understanding that Matusz, Tillman, Hobgood and Britton all sit somewhere between 88-93 with their fastballs (though it does appear that Hobgood now regularly deals in the 92-94 range).

I could see any of these guys reaching back and hitting 95, maybe 96 with a pitch or three in any given game, but what does that really mean?

Does it change the fact that they have a low 90s fastball? Not in my opinion. It just means that they, like a lot of good pitchers, can dial it up from time to time.

If Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz hits 97 twice with a fastball in a game, that's fantastic. But when 90-95 percent of their fastballs sit in the 89-92 range, they are still low 90s guys. I suppose you could make the case that seeing them hit the upper digits leads us to believe they have a little more projection and growth left, but it doesn't change where they sit with their fastball right now.

Anyway, these are just my thoughts and I don't mean any disrespect. Thanks again for the information you post.

[QBsILLEST1]

QB, I like your scouting coverage and appreciate what you bring to the table in the minor league and draft boards. I'm glad you started posting.

If I may politely make a suggestion, though, it seems that you are a bit too quick to get carried away with a pitcher's velocity because a report comes out saying he can "touch" a certain number.

I've now seen you mention Matusz, Tillman, Hobgood and others as throwing in the high 90s when this is really just not true. Now Britton throws his sinker in the mid 90s? Reports come out all the time that so and so touched 97 or 98 at a game, but they really should be discounted until we see a pitcher do it consistently.

I don't have time to see all of these guys pitch regularly, and I've never seen Hobgood in person, but I am very skeptical that any of them is a mid or upper 90s pitcher at this point. It is my understanding that Matusz, Tillman, Hobgood and Britton all sit somewhere between 88-93 with their fastballs (though it does appear that Hobgood now regularly deals in the 92-94 range).

I could see any of these guys reaching back and hitting 95, maybe 96 with a pitch or three in any given game, but what does that really mean?

Does it change the fact that they have a low 90s fastball? Not in my opinion. It just means that they, like a lot of good pitchers, can dial it up from time to time.

If Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz hits 97 twice with a fastball in a game, that's fantastic. But when 90-95 percent of their fastballs sit in the 89-92 range, they are still low 90s guys. I suppose you could make the case that seeing them hit the upper digits leads us to believe they have a little more projection and growth left, but it doesn't change where they sit with their fastball right now.

Anyway, these are just my thoughts and I don't mean any disrespect. Thanks again for the information you post.

I have never said Matusz throws in the high 90's first off....And I also never said that Britton throws a sinker at 95...He throws a 4 seam fastball that tocuhes 95, his sinker sits around 91-93.....Tillman can throw as hard as 97 MPH according to reports, I am not saying he sits there....I try to be careful when I say a guy sits or touches a certain velocity....Now if I say a guy can throw 98, it means what it says, literally, he can throw 98, doesnt mean thats how he always throws.....

I have also never seen anywhere it says Britton throws up to 97, he can touch 95, I never sauid anything else here aside from that....

Hobgood has reports of him touching 97, doesnt mean he sits there, he probably sits in the mid 90's....Just because I say a guy can throw xx MPH doesnt mean he always throws that hard.....

Mentioning where a guy sits and what MPH he touches are both worth mentioning, not just where he sits, it is all inclusive in reports.....

If you were a pitcher and you threw as high as 99 MPH, guess what you are gonna tell people? I can throw 99 MPH, maybe my thinking is differently than your because I used to pitch and how hard I can throw was always a big part of my pride, but because I can throw 99 MPH doesnt mean I always throw 99 MPH.....Unless I say Chris Tillman sits in the upper 90's, then I dont mean he sits in the upper 90's....

Your interpretation of what I say and what I say are 2 different things, but you seem to be interpreting what I say.....incorrectly.....

[QBsILLEST1]

First of all, let me say that I'm very happy and impressed with Britton up to this point. I guess Avencil would be the best source for this. Maybe he can chime in and tell us how often Britton dials it up into the 93-95 mph territory. I only remember the Jospeh quote about Britton hitting 95 on the gun. I may have missed some other bits along the way. They both pitched at Frederick at age 21. The numbers are very close, although Britton certainly has a clear edge in ERA and even homers allowed. I'm mainly going on reports from Tony and the Baseball America scouting reports. They have Spoone with a 93-95 mph fastball, a power curve, and a developing change. Britton is described as having a good stuff, including a low 90's fastball, a slider, and a developing change. I think the numbers slightly support Britton. I think the scouting reports mostly favored Spoone. BTW, at Frederick Spoone ended his Carolina League year with these numbers in August/September

58 IP
39 H
14 BB
53 K's

70% GB rate.

The numbers to date give Britton an edge in K rate, HR rate, ERA.
Spoone gets an edge in walk rate, avg. against, WHIP, GB%,LD%.

It's an interesting question. Britton's numbers are very impressive.

Spoone has the better stuff, but Im guessing that Britton has a bit more polish and pitchability than Spoone. I remember Caleb Joseph comparing Britton's polish to Matusz's and as good as Spoone's stuff is, it almost doesnt make sense that Britton has better #'s....And Britton has better BB#'s than Spoone....by far....

[wickedwitch]

Until Spoone proves to be healthy, it's Britton by far.

[LookinUp]

Britton throws hard enough and is young enough to gain another 1-2 mph with some refinement that should come with experience.

They need to throw the radar gun in the trash with Britton. He should just focus on control and further development of his 2/3 pitches.

[RVAbird]

I have never said Matusz throws in the high 90's first off....And I also never said that Britton throws a sinker at 95...He throws a 4 seam fastball that tocuhes 95, his sinker sits around 91-93.....Tillman can throw as hard as 97 MPH according to reports, I am not saying he sits there....I try to be careful when I say a guy sits or touches a certain velocity....Now if I say a guy can throw 98, it means what it says, literally, he can throw 98, doesnt mean thats how he always throws.....

I have also never seen anywhere it says Britton throws up to 97, he can touch 95, I never sauid anything else here aside from that....

Hobgood has reports of him touching 97, doesnt mean he sits there, he probably sits in the mid 90's....Just because I say a guy can throw xx MPH doesnt mean he always throws that hard.....

Mentioning where a guy sits and what MPH he touches are both worth mentioning, not just where he sits, it is all inclusive in reports.....

If you were a pitcher and you threw as high as 99 MPH, guess what you are gonna tell people? I can throw 99 MPH, maybe my thinking is differently than your because I used to pitch and how hard I can throw was always a big part of my pride, but because I can throw 99 MPH doesnt mean I always throw 99 MPH.....Unless I say Chris Tillman sits in the upper 90's, then I dont mean he sits in the upper 90's....

Your interpretation of what I say and what I say are 2 different things, but you seem to be interpreting what I say.....incorrectly.....

Fair enough. It may be an issue of semantics, but maybe I was misinterpreting your posts.

[baltimoriole]

I am treating Spoone as a lost cause, until he comes back and proves otherwise. In any event, Britton has been a bit more consistent in his career than Spoone was. I think he's a better prospect than Spoone was before his injury.

couldn't have said it better myself.