Final playoff hope thread

[Sports Guy]

Ok guys, the other threads have a lot going on in them.

Its very simple for the Ravens next week...Win and they are in.

There are scenarios where they can tie and still make it but to keep it simple, win and you are in.

The other game of importance is the Cinci/Jets game.

If the Jets win, they will be the 5th seed and playing in Cinci and we will be in NE.

If Cinci wins, then we will get the 5th seed and likely Pitt will get the 6th seed...At that point, we play in Cinci.

Personally, I hope Cinci wins next week...I would like to play them again.

[PDog]

Steelers need a lot of help

To get in they need:

Jets and Texans loss
or
Ravens and Texans loss
or
Jets and Ravens and Broncos loss

Ravens should be able to pull off a win and get in.

[Sports Guy]

Steelers need a lot of help

To get in they need:

Jets and Texans loss
or
Ravens and Texans loss
or
Jets and Ravens and Broncos loss

Ravens should be able to pull off a win and get in.NE and Cinci are fighting for seeding...Both could certainly lose though but I would think they both win.

[SouthRider]

I'd rather have the Ravens play Cincy as well, but I wouldn't mind seeing Pittsburgh miss out and have Rex's team in. Boy, did Denver piss away their season or what?

Things are looking good for the Ravens' chances. If they lose to Oakland next week they have only themselves to blame.

[Sports Guy]

I'd rather have the Ravens play Cincy as well, but I wouldn't mind seeing Pittsburgh miss out and have Rex's team in. Boy, did Denver piss away their season or what?

Things are looking good for the Ravens' chances. If they lose to Oakland next week they have only themselves to blame.

No doubt...The Raiders have beaten some good teams this year...but the Ravens haven't lost to any bad teams and they have beaten up the bad teams...So, I expect them to win.

[SouthRider]

Steelers need a lot of help

To get in they need:

Jets and Texans loss


This is the most likely scenario, imho.

[ccbird]

Guys, I think we are in trouble. I think Yahoo was wrong. We are going to lose the tiebreaker to Denver on strength of victory. The tiebreakers are head to head, then conference record, and then common opponents and then stregnth of victory. Head to head doesnt apply in a three way tie, conference records will be the same and we don't have enough common opponents with Denver and NY has much better strength of victories over us. I'm pretty sure we are going to need one of the Jets or Broncos to lose next week.

[Sports Guy]

Guys, I think we are in trouble. I think Yahoo was wrong. We are going to lose the tiebreaker to Denver on strength of victory. The tiebreakers are head to head, then conference record, and then common opponents and then stregnth of victory. Head to head doesnt apply in a three way tie, conference records will be the same and we don't have enough common opponents with Denver and NY has much better strength of victories over us. I'm pretty sure we are going to need one of the Jets or Broncos to lose next week.

No...The original tiebreaker is a 3 way tie...Once that is determined(ie the Jets hold that), it starts over and it is a Den/Balt decision...Even if Houston beats NE and they are 9-7 and Pitt is 9-7, it is still us.

You are all worried about Nantz but what he said is there is even a scenario where strength of victory comes into play...At the beginning of the Philly drive to win it, he said Baltimore would control its own destiny....and I think NBC just said the same thing.

[The Epic]

Common games will be triggered when the Jets play Cincy. So yeah, it's accurate.

[Miller192]

Guys, I think we are in trouble. I think Yahoo was wrong. We are going to lose the tiebreaker to Denver on strength of victory. The tiebreakers are head to head, then conference record, and then common opponents and then stregnth of victory. Head to head doesnt apply in a three way tie, conference records will be the same and we don't have enough common opponents with Denver and NY has much better strength of victories over us. I'm pretty sure we are going to need one of the Jets or Broncos to lose next week.

It doesn't matter. It reverts back to head-to-head once the remaining clubs with the same record are eliminated through the tie breaking procedures.

We're breaking ties for two wildcard spots now.

[ccbird]

No...The original tiebreaker is a 3 way tie...Once that is determined(ie the Jets hold that), it starts over and it is a Den/Balt decision...Even if Houston beats NE and they are 9-7 and Pitt is 9-7, it is still us.

You are all worried about Nantz but what he said is there is even a scenario where strength of victory comes into play...At the beginning of the Philly drive to win it, he said Baltimore would control its own destiny....and I think NBC just said the same thing.

All I know is Nantz said something about strength of victory at the end of the Eagles game and if it does go to stregnth of victory we are in trouble.

[Birds of B'more]

Oddly enough, ESPN's "If the Playoffs Started Today (http://espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4719928)" scenario says that the Broncos would hold the #5 seed and the Ravens the #6 right now. I guess that isn't exactly the same thing as who controls their own destiny, though.

[Sports Guy]

Oddly enough, ESPN's "If the Playoffs Started Today (http://espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4719928)" scenario says that the Broncos would hold the #5 seed and the Ravens the #6 right now. I guess that isn't exactly the same thing as who controls their own destiny, though.

NBC just had the Jets in over the Broncos and said if the Ravens win, they are in.

[Birds of B'more]

NBC just had the Jets in over the Broncos and said if the Ravens win, they are in.

Given all the discrepancies I'm seeing/hearing, I think I will wait until the NFL releases its official playoff scenarios before I breath easy.

EDIT: and according to NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true), the Ravens are outside looking in.

[Sports Guy]

Given all the discrepancies I'm seeing/hearing, I think I will wait until the NFL releases its official playoff scenarios before I breath easy.

It appears everyone is on the same page but that ESPN link.

NBC, CBS, yahoo...all saying that right now, its the Jets and Ravens controlling their playoff destinies.

[Birds of B'more]

It appears everyone is on the same page but that ESPN link.

NBC, CBS, yahoo...all saying that right now, its the Jets and Ravens controlling their playoff destinies.

Check my edit above. The NFL says Ravens need help.

[ccbird]

Ok, we are good. The Jets have common opponent tiebreakers over both the Broncos and us so they get the 5 seed. Then we get the head to head over the Broncos. We are good. SHOO. Nantz scared me for a second. Win and we are in.

[Sports Guy]

Check my edit above. The NFL says Ravens need help.

I don't think that link is right....I think they are just making a mistake.

[PrivateO]

Damn Colts....

[frankpembleton]

Given all the discrepancies I'm seeing/hearing, I think I will wait until the NFL releases its official playoff scenarios before I breath easy.

EDIT: and according to NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true), the Ravens are outside looking in.

It think it's an odd situation where the Broncos are currently ahead of us but once the games are played next week (and assuming we both win) we would hold the tiebreaker over them. Basically one of the levels of tiebreaks has not kicked in yet because the Jets have not yet played Cincy...or something like that.

[Birds of B'more]

I don't think that link is right....I think they are just making a mistake.

This is the NFL saying this, CBS, NBC, ESPN and Yahoo don't determine the tie-breakers. I'm going with what the league itself says until I hear otherwise.

[PrivateO]

I don't think that link is right....I think they are just making a mistake.

I believe that reflects if the season ended today. Though, that still wouldn't make sense seeing that the Ravens aren't in there.

Does this mean Yahoo's generator is wrong? I've been going off that for a while now...

[Birds of B'more]

It think it's an odd situation where the Broncos are currently ahead of us but once the games are played next week (and assuming we both win) we would hold the tiebreaker over them. Basically one of the levels of tiebreaks has not kicked in yet because the Jets have not yet played Cincy...or something like that.

I hope that's correct....maybe that's where the Broncos loss to the Raiders factors in??? In other words, assuming the Ravens beat Oakland, that will give them a common opponents edge over Denver that they currently do not have???

[Sports Guy]

I believe that reflects if the season ended today. Though, that still wouldn't make sense seeing that the Ravens aren't in there.

Does this mean Yahoo's generator is wrong? I've been going off that for a while now...

It would be one thing if everyone else was reporting it but they aren't...Just because that is the NFL.com website, it doesn't mean they didn't make a simple error...And, as people are saying, it says if the playoffs started today...Although I agree that I don't get why that is the case although with so many teams at 8-7, maybe that's why? Not sure.

Either way, I am very confident that it is a win and we are in scenario.

[ccbird]

Guys as soon as the Jets play the Cinci Bengals the tiebreaker will be common opponents between the 3 teams. Right now the Jets and us have not played enough commom opponents but once they play Cincy next week we will. They will have the tiebreaker over both Baltimore and Denver in common opponents making them the 5 seed. Then it will be between Denver and Baltimore and we will have that tiebreaker. So technically, we are out at the moment because right now the tiebreaker is strength of victory. Things will change next week when the Jets play the Bengals.

[The Epic]

I believe that reflects if the season ended today. Though, that still wouldn't make sense seeing that the Ravens aren't in there.

Does this mean Yahoo's generator is wrong? I've been going off that for a while now...

It makes perfect sense, man. They need four games to trigger the common games. They don't have that yet. They will after next week.

[Birds of B'more]

Guys as soon as the Jets play the Cinci Bengals the tiebreaker will be common opponents between the 3 teams. Right now the Jets and us have not played enough commom opponents but once they play Cincy next week we will. They will have the tiebreaker over both Baltimore and Denver. Then it will be between Denver and Baltimore and we will have that tiebreaker. So technically, we are out at the moment because right now the tiebreaker is strength of victory. Things will change next week when the Jets play the Bengals.

I have a headache.:bangwall:

[square634]

Guys as soon as the Jets play the Cinci Bengals the tiebreaker will be common opponents between the 3 teams. Right now the Jets and us have not played enough commom opponents but once they play Cincy next week we will. They will have the tiebreaker over both Baltimore and Denver in common opponents making them the 5 seed. Then it will be between Denver and Baltimore and we will have that tiebreaker. So technically, we are out at the moment because right now the tiebreaker is strength of victory. Things will change next week when the Jets play the Bengals.

As far as I can tell this is correct. Once the Jets get in, then it creates a cascade of tiebreakers that the Ravens win. First the Steelers are eliminated because the Ravens have a better division record. Then the Texans are eliminated because the Ravens and Broncos have better conference records. Once it's down to the Ravens and Broncos, it goes to a two-team tiebreaker... which the Ravens win by virtue of the head-to-head victory.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Why are we only taking the Jets and Broncos into account? Can't the Steelers and Texans all be 9-7?

[ccbird]

Why are we only taking the Jets and Broncos into account? Can't the Steelers and Texans all be 9-7?

They have worse conference records.

[PrivateO]

Can someone lay out all the tiebreakers, common opponents, and everything?

My friend and I are arguign over the Ravens getting in.

I say "win and in", he's saying that the Ravens need a win and a NYJ or DEN loss.

[Oriolesfan1988]

However, the tie-breaker scenario will change in Week 17, and the result will change the order of the seven teams still alive for the two playoff spots. When the Baltimore Ravens face the Oakland Raiders next Sunday, the common games tie-breaker will then come into play for the Broncos, Jets and Ravens.

If the Jets defeat the Bengals, they would hold a three-way tie-breaker over the Ravens and Broncos (if the teams remain tied). If the Ravens defeat the Raiders, they would then hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos because of the 30-7 win in Week 8.

It’s a lot to take in, but what it all means is that the Jets and Ravens control their playoff destiny. If those teams win next week, they’re in.

http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/12/27/making-sense-of-the-afc-wild-card-picture/

If we win we are in. Simple as that because we hold Head to Head over denver.

[PrivateO]

http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/12/27/making-sense-of-the-afc-wild-card-picture/

If we win we are in. Simple as that because we hold Head to Head over denver.

Correct. This is due to a little notice at the top of the tie-breaking procedures, which is very important:


(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

NYJ win the common opponents tiebreaker between them, DEN, and BAL. It then reverts back to the tiebreaker for 2 teams for DEN and BAL, which would be head-to-head.

[tywright]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true


Denver currently hold down the No. 5 seed but don't control their own destiny. Broncos would lose common opponents tiebreaker to Jets and head-to-head to Baltimore if all three teams are tied after Week 17.

If Ravens win, they're in. While they would lose common opponents tiebreaker to Jets in three-way tie with New York and Denver, they would own head-to-head tiebreaker over Broncos.

This should clear up everything.

[PrivateO]

Root for Cincinnati this week. This is what I came up with (with my opinions/predictions):

These scanarios automatically assume a Ravens win--

1. CIN wins, NE wins. BAL gets 5 seed (plays CIN), PIT 6.
2. NYJ wins, NE wins. NJY gets 5 seed, BAL gets 6 seed (plays NE).

There a lot of others if HOU beats NE, but that's really here nor there. The big games for Week 17 (for us) will be Ravens vs. Raiders, Patriots vs. Texans, and Bengals vs. Jets.

I'd rather play in Cincy than up north in Foxboro, so option 1 looks the best. If that's the case, here's what the playoffs would look like.

1. Colts, 2. Chargers (byes)
6. Steelers @ 3. Patriots
5. Ravens @ 4. Bengals

If BAL wins and PIT wins, BAL goes to SD (PIT to IND).
If BAL wins and NE wins, BAL goes to IND (NE to SD).

That's all folks.

[geschinger]

Root for Cincinnati this week. This is what I came up with (with my opinions/predictions):

These scanarios automatically assume a Ravens win--

1. CIN wins, NE wins. BAL gets 5 seed (plays CIN), PIT 6.
2. NYJ wins, NE wins. NJY gets 5 seed, BAL gets 6 seed (plays NE).

There a lot of others if HOU beats NE, but that's really here nor there. The big games for Week 17 (for us) will be Ravens vs. Raiders, Patriots vs. Texans, and Bengals vs. Jets.

I'd rather play in Cincy than up north in Foxboro, so option 1 looks the best. If that's the case, here's what the playoffs would look like.

1. Colts, 2. Chargers (byes)
6. Steelers @ 3. Patriots
5. Ravens @ 4. Bengals

If BAL wins and PIT wins, BAL goes to SD (PIT to IND).
If BAL wins and NE wins, BAL goes to IND (NE to SD).

That's all folks.

If this is the scenario if I'm the Bengals I'm resting my players and throwing the game against the Jets so that I play them in 1st round instead of the Ravens.

[McNulty]

Has there ever been two teams that played each other in the last week of the season then in the first round of the playoffs? That would be wierd.

[Sports Guy]

Has there ever been two teams that played each other in the last week of the season then in the first round of the playoffs? That would be wierd.

Yea, it happens a lot more than you would think...Good chance it happens this year with Arizona and GB.

[Sports Guy]

Root for Cincinnati this week. This is what I came up with (with my opinions/predictions):

These scanarios automatically assume a Ravens win--

1. CIN wins, NE wins. BAL gets 5 seed (plays CIN), PIT 6.
2. NYJ wins, NE wins. NJY gets 5 seed, BAL gets 6 seed (plays NE).

There a lot of others if HOU beats NE, but that's really here nor there. The big games for Week 17 (for us) will be Ravens vs. Raiders, Patriots vs. Texans, and Bengals vs. Jets.

I'd rather play in Cincy than up north in Foxboro, so option 1 looks the best. If that's the case, here's what the playoffs would look like.

1. Colts, 2. Chargers (byes)
6. Steelers @ 3. Patriots
5. Ravens @ 4. Bengals

If BAL wins and PIT wins, BAL goes to SD (PIT to IND).
If BAL wins and NE wins, BAL goes to IND (NE to SD).

That's all folks.

And Pitt and Balt for the AFC Championship again! LOL

[geschinger]

Has there ever been two teams that played each other in the last week of the season then in the first round of the playoffs? That would be wierd.

A couple of years ago the Sorgi led Colts lost to the Broncos in week 17. Seven days later Manning had about 450 yards passing and 4 TDs in a Colts blowout win over Denver.

[Birds of B'more]

Has there ever been two teams that played each other in the last week of the season then in the first round of the playoffs? That would be wierd.

It definitely happened after the 2001 season with NY Jets and Oakland. I know they played the Wild Card Round game in Oakland on a Saturday, but I can't remember if the Week 17 game was in New York or Oakland.

[Three Run Homer]

If this is the scenario if I'm the Bengals I'm resting my players and throwing the game against the Jets so that I play them in 1st round instead of the Ravens.

You are absolutely correct. Assuming NE and BAL win earlier on Sunday, CIN has almost no incentive to win on Sunday night. I mean, who would you rather play in the first round of the playoffs--the Ravens or the Jets?

I predict the Ravens take care of business on Sunday...and we play in New England the following week. Which is not good--New England suddenly looks like a team that has its act together, and I wouldn't bet against them winning the whole thing.

[McNulty]

Yea, it happens a lot more than you would think...Good chance it happens this year with Arizona and GB.

Guess so. :D

[backwardsk]

Yea, it happens a lot more than you would think...Good chance it happens this year with Arizona and GB.

And Dallas and Philly.

[Icterus galbula]

Bump.

New England is tied with Houston in the third quarter. No one has explained what we might want if New England loses. Any help?

[NickStckMattBat]

Bump.

New England is tied with Houston in the third quarter. No one has explained what we might want if New England loses. Any help?
NE winning now, but if they lose and we win we basically play them next week.

[SouthRider]

Bump.

New England is tied with Houston in the third quarter. No one has explained what we might want if New England loses. Any help?

If NE loses it flips NE and Cincy between the 3rd and 4rth seeds assuming Cincy takes care of business against the Jets.

Right now, things are looking good for Pittsburgh. They are winning and NE is up by a touchdown over Houston. If Cincy beats the Jets. Pittsburgh will play NE while we play Cincy. This kind of sucks because Wes Welker left the game with what looked like a possible season ending leg injury and it was just revealed today that Tom Brady is playing with 3 broken ribs. With that news I think I prefer to play NE rather than Cincy.

[SouthRider]

Houston has knocked the Steelers (and Miami) out of the playoffs! By Yahoo's calculation the only way the Steelers are still in it (even winning today) is if Balt, NY Jets, and Denver all lose; and that ain't gonna happen. Thank you Houston!

[Remember The Alomar]

Houston has knocked the Steelers (and Miami) out of the playoffs! By Yahoo's calculation the only way the Steelers are still in it (even winning today) is if Balt, NY Jets, and Denver all lose; and that ain't gonna happen. Thank you Houston!

So if we win today, do we play NE in the playoffs?

[SouthRider]

So if we win today, do we play NE in the playoffs?

Depends on Jets/Bengals game. Actually that does not appear correct. I think we are tied into New England. Very interesting.

[The Epic]

I love the fact that a Ravens win eliminates the Steelers.

If...if it happens.

[wieters1515]

Stop holding the ball flacco!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!