Probably semantics, but I don't think 'expected to' and 'on pace for' mean the same thing in context like this. That being said, I fully understand what you're saying, and I do think that an .800 OPS as a season-long result is more likely than another 1-40 or whatever and a subsequent demotion.
For those of you following at home:
Pedantic = "someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter."
Buzzkill = "a person or thing that spoils the mood or the pleasure of others."