Here's my prediction:
We're going to win ~ games this season and ~100 games next season.
And in between, in the next off-season, this board will have several meltdowns bemoaning the lack of FA signings.
This is why I was against the Burnes trade. I could turn out to be wrong even only having him for one year, but I would have rather got a guy with a few years of control.
I agree though. You really can't extend him at what he's going to ask for.
Means has a legit resume that shouldn't be thrown out. Even it if was 2-5 years ago. That matters if for no other reason than as a reasonable ceiling for expectations. Odds are he won't outperform that (and yes there are exceptions).
His injury/recovery and recent performance matters too. Obviously.
I think it's fair to view his AAA as ST-like but with an injury-risk asterisks. That broadens the range of outcomes (i.e. lowers the floor).
I wouldn't have him as plan A either. I had questions with sustainability of his ERA last year. But how many #2/3 upside SPs are on speed dial? (And he'd be in the SP3-SP5 range for us.) Pitching is thin and everyone is scrounging for arms. A dice role (or 2 if you throw Bradish in this discussion) at upside is worth it.
Another few games will impact expectations.
Trading Santander is tough because teams who want him will be competitive teams looking for an offense-oriented rental. But what we want in return is like, a good bullpen arm at minimum, and said competitive team will be reluctant to give that up.
It's easier if we're not a good team and the other team can give us prospects. But that's not what we're looking for right now.