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  1. 21 points
    The other day in the DSL thread I asked if someone could put together a top prospects list as little seemed to be known about the players we currently have on our 2 DSL teams. We have a lot of older players for the league, players that have repeated the league 2 or 3 times, and other team's castaways, so its hard to see who Elias would really be invested in on our DSL teams. Luke-OH said putting a prospect list together would be difficult as there is little info on the DSL guys in our system, but he suggested to look at age, position, scouting reports (rare) etc, but not to hyper focus on stats. So I decided to comb through both rosters and use the following combination of factors to comprise a list of who to follow: age, position, bonuses, nationality, statistical performance, when/who signed them (this plays into the "late bloomer" category), etc. This list does not include any of our J2 signings for 2019, only players that were in the system already, whether signed by Duquette or Elias. This is a list of 25 players who have peaked my interest enough to track. I don't know if these are prospects (as I couldn't find a lot of scouting reports), but they seem to all have a reason to follow them that separates them from our collection of other teams throw-aways and the older holdovers (20+ year olds) in our system. Enjoy and I hope its helpful as we are all a little more excited to track our international signs now. Jorge Morla - RHP - Was an Elias June sign, although playing this season at age 19. 6’3’’ 185, so good size. Just added to the DSL2 team. Struck out 2 in first inning of work on Tuesday. Maybe a late bloomer? Kevin Infante - CF - Turns 19 on July 14th, but is interesting as he is a signee out of Cuba. Signed for $175,000. Batting .320 with a .792 OPS. Stealing some bases, plays an elite position. I wonder if he will get ABs in the GCL this season. Ricardo Castro - CF - 2nd season in the DSL and playing the whole season at age 19. SIgned out of Venezuela. Batting .300 with a .748 OPS, improved from his 2018 season. Thought it was interesting as a he was a Duquette sign out of Venezuela, and I didn’t see a lot of people in our system from Venezuela signed during the Duquette era. Another centerfielder. Luis Sena - 2B - 17 year old shortstop signed out of the Dominican. Batting .288 with a .721 OPS. An Elias June sign as well Joel Benitez - RHP - Signed in April, has pitched well so far with a K per inning and a 2.55 era. Is playing this season at age 18. Late bloomer? 6’2’’ 175’’ Pablo Falconet - RHP - 2nd year in the DSL. Had a good season at age 17 and his having a better season at age 18. 1 walk allowed on the season, averaging a K per inning. Another candidate to get some GCL time this season? Interesting body. 6’2’’ 220 lbs Angel Gomez - CF - Duquette signed in August of 2018, but this is his first stint in the DSL. Just turned 18 in June. 371 OBP, a little speed. Playing every day for DSL1. Harif Frias - RHP - Elias signed in April. Not putting up very good numbers with a 7.20 ERA, but he’s 6’4’’ 163. In the 4 games he’s pitched in he’s only given up hits in 1 of them, and he struck out the side in one inning of work in his 3rd outing. Jesus Chavez - LHP - 17 year old LHP signed May 31st, getting starts and putting up solid numbers. About a K per inning. 2.63 ERA. Needs to get the walks down a little. Eduard Monroy - LHP -Another May 31st 17 year old lefty, but struggling so far. Small in stature, 5’11’’ 160. Signed out of Venezuela, just added to DSL1, so only pitched in 2 games so far. No photo Jairo Vasquez - RHP - 17 year old Dominican sign. Recently added to DSL1. One inning of work, 2 K’s, 1 hit, 4 walks, 2 HBP, 7 Earned Runs. One of the younger players, so maybe he’s an all heat, no control guy. 6’1’’ 160. Yorkislandy Alvarez - IF - He’s playing this season at age 20, but Elias signed him out of Cuba in May. He’s getting innings all over the infield. He’s got 15 walks to his 11 K’s, but he’s only hitting .214. Not sure about his story from Cuba to the Orioles, but don’t Cubans have to go through a waiting period when they defect? Possibly rusty and could move quickly once he gets going? Stiven Acevado - OF - From what I could derive, this was our most high profile sign from the 2018 money. Turns 17 in August. Hitting well, getting innings every day. 6’4’’ 185. I’m most excited about this player out of all the DSL guys. Anyelo Reyes - 3B - 17 year old, bats lefty, Struggling a bit but getting innings in the field. Only 1 BB, so needs to learn some patience. Seems versatile. 6’1’’ 170. Elias sign. J’rudjeanon Isenia - CF - Kid from Curacao. I think he was actually signed when Brian Graham was interim GM back in October. Signed as a 16 year old for $125,000, playing his first season as a 17 year old. Just recently added to DSL2. Only had 3 ABs. Damian Valdez - OF - Signed by Duquette for $200,000 in 2018. 17 year old Lefty 6’2’’ has been getting every day innings although he hasn’t produced much. Moises Ramirez - SS - $225,000 sign by Duquette last year as well. Getting every day AB’s. Producing more than Valdez, but only batting .213. OPS of .664 isn’t bad for a 17 year old though. Hector Lopez - RHP - 17 year old from Panama. Great numbers in 6 starts. 0.74 ERA. 6’1’’ 190. I wonder if he is named after the Panamanian MLB player that had some good seasons back in the day for the Yankees. In the 1950’s-60’s. Juan De Los Santos - RHP - Domincan, signed in March, just turned 17 at the end of May. Getting starts, putting up K’s . 6’2’’ 190 Isaac Bellony - CF - Born in the Virgin Islands, he was signed for $220,000 by Duquette in August of 2018. Switch hitter, 6’1’’ 180. Struggling a bit playing the season at age 17, but getting every day at bats. Raily Nunez - SS - Signed in May. Turned 17 on July 1st. Left handed hitter. Added to the DSL1 on his birthday. Has played in 4 games. No Photo Michael Mantecon - C - 17 year old Cuban signed in March. The only Catcher on this list. 5’10’’ 180. Struggling a bit, but getting AB’s. 54% caught stealing rate so far. Started two games at 2B too. Kelvin Laroche - Duquette signed him as a 19 year old last summer and he will turn 20 at the end of July, but his WHIP is under 1.00. Not K’ing a lot of folks, but apparently has a clean delivery and some poise. He will have to move fast to keep any semblance of a prospect, but he could be another late bloomer. Only 5’11’’ 170. Gilberto Machado - SS - Getting AB’s but struggling. Another Duquette sign out of Venezuela, but just now getting his first taste of pro ball. Will play the whole season at age 18. Supposed to have a + glove. Carlos Del Rosario - RHP - Just turned 20, but is 6’5’’ 225 and is putting up big K and BB numbers. Signed in August of 2018, another hopeful late bloomer.
  2. 18 points
    https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jul/16/orioles-rebuild-doomed-long-angelos-owns-team/?fbclid=IwAR2wFF7pzZhjbrllBsqotCivr1tqLncT91saLdxFEDY5HTkZWWO1ghhTUyE Here is my response: Peter Angelos is no longer making any decision on the Baltimore Orioles. You make several valid points on the city, and I too have heard fan's concerns, but you glossed over the arrival of Mike Elias and the fact that the sons have given him the control to run the organization as never before under an Angelos-led organization.. They are in the international prospect scene like never before, hiring known and popular Latin american scout Kobi Perez to lead that effort. The hiring of Sig Mejdal has keyed the Orioles resurgence in using analytics to affect decisions on and off the field and the Orioles farm system will end up close to a top ten system by the end of the year in many publications. So yes, things are very bleak right now on the field and yes the "sins of the father" haunt this franchise a bit, but John and Lou have done nothing to suggest they will run the team like their father and they are now in charge of the franchise. Attendance is down across baseball so it's unfair to point out the falling attendance on a team that has been the worse team in baseball for the last two years. The Nationals are down 3,300 fans from 2018 and they are contending and in first place for a wild card spot. It appears you've taken the time to kick a team and city while it's down while focusing on it's past, not it's future that now looks much brighter thanks to the arrival of Mike Elias.
  3. 16 points
  4. 14 points
    Cisco= Technology conglomerate Sisqo= Thong, Thong, Thong, Thong, Thong Sisco= Baltimore Orioles catcher
  5. 13 points
    To fill you all in on Cumberland, he was in AA, hitting 25% better than league average. He got hurt, missed a bunch of time, and recently started a rehab assignment in Aberdeen. He’s continuing to work back in Frederick, it’s not a demotion and he’ll be back in AA in no time.
  6. 12 points
    This is awesome. We'll be signing a ton of guys no one has ever heard of and then arguing about it.
  7. 10 points
  8. 10 points
    All I want back is 17 year old DSL prospects. You guys are gonna rue the day that Elias traded Cashner for two 17 year old DSL prospects because I'm just going to say thats all I want back in every make believe trade thread for the next year. And I don't just want ANY 17 year old DSL prospects, I want ones with no video and no pictures and only murky scouting reports to further annoy everyone here. I don't even want 17 year old DSL prospects that have been ranked on a 20-80 scale, I want as little information about these guys as possible. Even what they signed for is maybe a little too much information but I don't see how that's avoidable.
  9. 9 points
    This is a funny place. We all go crazy on J2 when Elias signs a bunch of guys just like this. And then we trade an average ML starter for two guys that are just like J2 types and...all of a sudden it's a big letdown.
  10. 9 points
    Is there any? All I’ll say is if you want potential impact from a guy like Cashner, you have to go young/high risk. It’s this or older prospects with limited ceiling which plenty of posters here expressed dislike for in last year’s trades.
  11. 9 points
    He's my report on his start tonight against Lakewood... 7/1 vs Lakewood 1st inning FB 91-92, 94 (t95) cb 75. 77, 79 ch 76-79 82 slider 1. R - 3-2 KL, 94 2. L 1-1 7, 93 L- 3-2, 93 2B L- 1-1 , 76 CB, HBP R- 3-2, 93 KS, 27 pitches to get through inning. Started left-handers off with CH with good drop. Can throw for strikes. Threw a two seamer around 89-91, and a four seamer at 93-94. Slider was at 82 and not good. 2nd inning FB 92-93, CB 76 R - 3-2 CH (80) 4-3 up middle R - 0-2 SL (83( low and away KS R - 1-2 SL (82) low and away KS Worked on the slider during this inning against the righties. Some sharp late bite that he kept low and away. 3rd inning FB 89-93.. R - 1-2 SL (82) low and away KS (1) R - 0-1 SL (80) low and away P-6 (2) L - 3-1 FB (93) High, missed with two changeups (3) L - 0-0 FB (91) 1B down rightfield line (4) L - 0-0 FB (93) P6 4th inning FB 88-92 (5) R - 1-1 FB 91 F8 (6) R - 1-1 SL (81) SL center cut, 2B (7) R - 0-2 FB (92) 2b to RC for RBI Strange 0-2 call and pitch selection (out trying to stretch to 3b) (8) R - 0-1 FB (88) F8 5th inning FB 90, 91 t93 (9) R - 1-2 SL (83) KS (1) R 0-1 (FB) 91 F9 (2) L 1-2 CH (76) left up for 1B (3) L 1-0 Fb (90) in on hands for 1-3 80 pitches on the game… Fastball ranged from 89-94 but sat a lot of 92-94, t 95. Used the changeup for outs against lefties. Changeup got a little loopy in 5th inning. Slider was his best pitch against righties, kept it low and away for swinging strikes to righties. Moved fastball around zone, missed mostly low.
  12. 9 points
    We win two 13-0 games and wildcard is thinking this is a turnaround. Only Captain Sample Size could dream up a situation where this team turns on a dime and starts winning games, where guys like Tom Eshelman and Chandler Shepard (two guys half this board had never heard of 4 months ago) ride in to the rescue to save the season un#%&@ing this team enough to not get the 1:1 the following year. And I gotta hand it to him, the way he wrote that OP had me thinking this lineup was the second coming of the '27 Yankees. I was almost....ALMOST a believer.
  13. 8 points
    That's why they signed. Luis Ortiz is now the 8th-best starter in the organization. On the Yanks his ETA would be 2026. With the O's it's a week from Friday.
  14. 8 points
  15. 8 points
  16. 8 points
    I dunno if you're considering that as a dig at Manny of some sorts but I think Manny has 300 million reasons not to care what goes on in Baltimore. This is a good point. I think any team that has the 42nd pick should just not select anyone. What's the point if that player is only going to put up 1 WAR? Ditch the pick, use the money elsewhere, I say.
  17. 8 points
    Good for Buck. I hope it works out for him. I will always be grateful to him for being a major part of saving us from wandering in the wilderness for more than 14 years.
  18. 7 points
    I started off planning a list of the 10 greatest Orioles shortstops of all time, but decided to cut if off at 9, because there were no other shortstops who had been the O’s starter for more than one season. I only considered the years the player played for the Orioles, and for stats, only the years/games played at SS. As I see it, the group breaks into four tiers. Tier 1 – The Hall of Famer 1. Cal Ripken: 2,302 games at SS (2291 as a starter), 89.3 WAR, 117 OPS +, +10 Rtot/yr. Took over at SS in May 1982 and held the position through 1996. His rate stats understate how good he was in his prime years. He won 2 MVP’s, one Gold Glove, the Rookie of the Year award, and was a 14-time all star as a shortstop. Tier 2 – The 8-Time Gold Glover 2. Mark Belanger: 1,898 games at SS (1,675 as a starter), 40.8 rWAR, 68 OPS+, +19 Rtot/yr. Became the starting SS in 1968 after a couple of years as a defensive sub, and held the starting job through 1981, except for 1979 when he was hurt and replaced by Kiko Garcia. An 8-time Gold Glover, there’s little doubt that Belanger was one of the top 2 defensive shortstops of all time (with Ozzie Smith), and arguably the best. Couldn’t hit but his defense was key to the great 1969-71 teams as well as the 1973-74 playoff teams. Was an all-star in 1976. Tier 3 – The Solid Stars. You could debate the order these four players belong in; they were all very good players for the O’s. 3. Miguel Tejada: 596 games at SS (594 starts), 19.0 rWAR, 124 OPS+, -2 Rtot/yr. Tejada was probably the most heralded free agent signing the O’s ever made, and one of the most successful. He only played for the O’s from 2004-07, and was traded to the Astros for 5 players, including Luke Scott, Troy Patton, Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate and a minor leaguer. His 150 RBI in 2004 is a team record at any position. His offense was probably as good as Cal’s in their primes, though Cal was the better defender. Miggy had a cannon arm but was slightly erratic in the field. A three-time all-star with the O's. 4. Luis Aparicio: 713 games at SS (707 starts), 16.4 rWAR, 83 OPS+, +8 Rtot/yr. Aparicio was the starter from 1963-67, before being traded back to the White Sox in a deal that brought us Don Buford. He was the starting SS on the 1966 World Series winner. A very slick fielder and a great baserunner, Aparicio won two Gold Glove and was a two-time all star while on the O’s. He also led the league in stolen bases twice as an Oriole, and his 57 steals in 19F64 still stands as the team record. He’s in the Hall of Fame, but more for his feats with the White Sox. 5. J.J. Hardy: 887 games at SS (884 starts), 16.1 rWAR, 87 OPS+, +12 Rtot/yr. Hardy was the starter from 2011-17, and anchored the defense on the resurgent 2012-16 Orioles. He was a three-time Gold Glover and an all star in 2013. He was a quiet leader who mentored Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop, and one of the most fundamentally sound players you will ever see. 6. Mike Bordick: 737 games at SS (725 starts), 14.5 rWAR, 87 OPS+, +11 Rtot/yr. Bordick was a good enough defender where the O’s moved Cal Ripken to 3B, and his defense anchored the 1997 wire-to-wire AL East championship team. He was the starter here from 1997-2002, except for a brief two-month hiatus in 2000 when he was traded to the Mets for their stretch run, bringing hack Melvin Mora and others in return. He never won a Gold Glove, but should have won twice in my opinion, including 2002, when he set the major league record for consecutive errorless games by a SS (110), a record that still stands. He was an all-star in 2000 for the O's before getting traded to the Mets. Tier 4 – The Regulars 7. Ron Hansen: 380 games (360 starts), 5.1 rWAR, 88 OPS+, +8 Rtot/yr. Hansen was the Rookie of the Year and an all star in 1960, helping the surprise Baby Birds to the Orioles’ first winning season. He held the starting job in 1960-61, then alternated with Jerry Adair in 1962 before being traded in the deal that brought Aparicio to Baltimore. 8. Cesar Izturis: 274 games (256 starts), -0.7 rWAR, 56 OPS+, +12 Rtot/yr. Izzy was the starter in 2009-10, and a backup to JJ Hardy in 2011. A really terrific defender but his hitting went from bad to unacceptable. He was a joy to watch on defense. 9. Willy Miranda: 564 games (516 starts), -0.8 rWAR, 53 OPS+, +3 Rtot/yr. Miranda held down the starting job from 1955-58, before playing a year behind the immortal Chico Carrasquel and then retiring. A solid fielder but even worse offensively than Mark Belanger. Never played for a winning Orioles team. You want to pick someone for no. 10? You have your choice between Billy Hunter (1954), Chico Carrasquel (1959), Jerry Adair (1962), Kiko Garcia (1979), Deivi Cruz (2003), and Richie Martin (2019). But, you might want to go with Manny Machado, who played in 148 games at SS for the O’s (145 starts) and accumulated 4-5 rWAR while doing so.
  19. 7 points
    A GM should be judged by the totality of the work they did... the good AND the bad.
  20. 7 points
    Michael Baumann’s no hitter yesterday got me to musing about how different players develop at different times, and how results don’t always track development exactly. I remember last year when the season ended, Baumann had dominated Delmarva (1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.1 K/9), got promoted, then had solid but not great numbers at Frederick (3.88, 1.32, 5.7). Though the numbers didn’t look bad, Luke opined that Baumann really hadn’t had a good year from a development standpoint because his secondary pitches hadn’t developed at all. Then this year, Luke very quickly recognized that Baumann had made changes since last season and his stuff was ticking up. That’s great, but there wasn’t a huge change in Baumann’s ERA (3.83) or WHIP (1.19) from the prior year at Frederick, even though his strikeouts (12.8 K/9) were at better than double the rate of the year before at Frederick. But since the promotion to Bowie, the results have been there in spades (0.36 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 10.7 K/9), culminating in last night’s masterpiece. It seems like we’ve seen similar fits and starts with Akin, Hall, Hanifee and others. They’ve all commented on how they are working on relying on their secondary pitches more, and how the data the O’s are supplying them is helping. The results aren’t completely there yet, but hopefully they’re coming. In any event, for me a big part of the fun of being a fan is following the journey these players take as they struggle to develop major league skills. Thanks to Tony, Luke and others who regularly provide information you can’t find in a box score or a stat sheet. Let’s hope that a few of these guys will become polished gems who will lead us out of this rebuilding period.
  21. 7 points
    Watching Baumann throw a no-hitter while throwing 97-98 MPH, with 10Ks and under 100 pitches has been the highlight of the Orioles season for me. One of the most dominating pitching performances I've ever witnessed. The velocity bump and slider improvements have bumped his stock.
  22. 7 points
    I would rather see Stewart on the team than Smith.
  23. 7 points
    So this is just my open question, if you don’t know anything about the players coming back, how do you judge the return? I can’t judge the return.
  24. 7 points
    My youngest daughter threw out the first pitch in Salisbury last night.
  25. 7 points
    7/2 vs Yard Dogs - Confident, athletic pitcher who is not afraid to throw any pitch in any count. Fastball sat 91-93 and touched 94. Was able to use the pitch to get ground balls and also was able to get some swings and misses up in the zone. Wasn't commanding curveball early on, but it got sharper and better as the game went on and missed mostly in dirt. Showed several plus curveballs and got four WHIFFs including three of his strikeouts. Changeup is very firm at 87-89 MPH. Gets some armside run to the pitch, but not much if any drop, but there's enough wrinkle to get batters off balance at times. Threw a couple average ones but it’s a below average offering overall. Throws an 87 MPH slider, but it’s more of a get me over slider than a swing and miss pitch. Doesn't have much feel to keep it low and away but can throw strikes with it. Needs more separation of velocity on his change and his slider needs better location and movement. Basically dominated with two pitches (fastball, curveball) against a poor hitting Double-A team. Collected 8 swings and misses out of 88 pitches. 7/2 1st inning FB 91-92 T93 SL -87 CB-77 CH -88 (little fade) 1- (L) 0-1 91 P-6 2- R 2-2 93, KS up and away 3- R 0-0 87 F8 Fastball heavy in 1st. Two sliders, both 87 but below average offerings., only CB was fouled off. 2nd inning FB 92, CB 74-76 Not very sharp 4- R 1-0, 90 6-3 5- L 2-0, 92 P-5 6- R 1-1, 92 F9 3rd inning 7- R 2-0, 92 P5 8- L 3-1, 91 inside BB Missed on fastballs and one curve 9- L 0-2, 76 curve KS Nice 10 (1) L - 0-0 CH 88, P6 4th inning 11- (2) R 0-0 SL 85, P3 12 - (3) R 0-1, 76 CB (hung in middle of plate) 1b GB to LF 13 - (4) R 0-0, 93 6-4-3.. Diving play by Valentin at 1B 5th inning 14 (5) L - 0-2, CB KS 15 (6) 1-2 93 lined 1b off pitcher 16 (7)R - 3-2 78 CB KS 17 (8) L - 2-0 CH 80, G3 55 pitches 6th inning 18 (9) L 1-2 CH 86, 4-3 (nice play by McCoy) 19 (1) L 2-1, FB 4-3 20 (2) R 2-0 SL middle-middle lined for 2B 21 (3) R 0-0 CB 77, 5-3 7th inning 22 (4) R 3-1, 91 6-3 (72 pitches) 23 (5) L 3-2, 88 CH KS, nice fade 24 (6) R - 3-2, 94 BB 25 (7) R - 2-0, 90 CH F8 88 pitches total
  26. 7 points
    I dunno about y'all, but I'm having fun just witnessing the Orioles being able to sit at the same table as the rest of baseball.
  27. 7 points
  28. 7 points
    Take that hateful trash elsewhere.
  29. 7 points
    He’s just a kid. I feel so old sometimes. True story. One of my students parents doesn’t come pick him up on time. I say to him, “why don’t you call your parents and see where they are?” He answers, “I don’t have my phone.” I take my phone off the hook, hand it to him. ”Here.” He puts it to his ear, looks at me and says, “your phone is broken. It’s making this weird noise.” I take the phone from him, listen, and then give him an incredulous look. “That’s called a dial tone!”
  30. 7 points
    I was fuming the other day about the money the O’s are wasting on Davis, Cobb and Trumbo, and decided to catalogue every deal the O’s have ever done for more than $20 mm. I’ve listed them below, in declining contract value order, with some WAR valuations and comments. There have been a few wins, but overall, it is not a pretty picture. (If I’ve forgotten anyone, let me know.) Chris Davis (2016-22): 7 years, $161 mm ($42 mm deferred) rWAR: -0.5 (3.076 seasons) fWAR: -1.3 (3.076 seasons) Fangraphs value: -$9.0 mm (3.076 seasons) Fangraphs deficit in value: -$89.5 mm (3.076 seasons) Comment: Quite arguably, the worst contract of all time. The -$89.5 mm only accounts for the first half of the contract. If you assume (as I do) that he will never again generate positive WAR and the O’s won’t be able to buy him out, the negative value goes to $170 mm or more. And it was a bad deal the day the ink was dry, though nobody knew it would be this bad. Adam Jones (2013-18): 6 years, $85.5 mm rWAR: 17.0 mm fWAR: 17.2 mm Fangraphs value: $133.4 mm Pre-FA discount: -$7.2 mm Net Fangraphs value: $126.2 mm Fangraphs surplus net value: $41.1 mm Comment: There’s a good case that this is the best long-term deal the O’s ever did. This deal was signed in May 2012, just as Jones was having his first really good season. The “Pre-FA discount” shown above accounts for the fact that Jones would not have been a free agent in 2013, so he would not have earned a FA-level salary that year. The formula I applied was a discount of 20% for his Arb 3 year. Jones went on to be a key leader and player for a team that went to the playoffs 3 times in 5 years. Miguel Tejada (2004-09): 6 years, $72 mm rWAR: 23.9 (20.1 as an Oriole) fWAR: 21.8 (17.5 as an Oriole) Fangraphs value: $107.7 mm ($81.1 mm as an Oriole) Fangraphs surplus value: $35.7 mm ($38.7 mm as an Oriole) Comment: By the numbers, this was almost as good a deal as the Jones deal, and it was pretty obvious the day we signed Tejada that we’d gotten him at a very good price. At the same time, Tejada’s role in the “B-12 episode” in 2005 is a black mark, and ultimately we traded him away. Still, we got decent value in that trade, and on balance, the Tejada signing was a very good one. Nick Markakis (2009-14): 6 years, $66 mm rWAR: 11.6 fWAR: 11.1 Fangraphs value: $75.3 mm Pre-FA discount: -$16.6 mm Net Fangraphs value: $58.7 mm Deficit in Fangraphs net value: -$7.3 mm This deal was signed before Markakis’ Arb-1 season, and so the value he generated in his three arb seasons is discounted by 60, 40 and 20% in my net value calculation. By that measure, this deal was a mild loser. However, I doubt most fans regret this deal, as Markakis was a quiet leader by example and a steadying presence in the lineup. He never became the star player he seemed to be developing into when this deal was made, but he was a very solid pro who posted every day. Albert Belle (1999-2003): 5 years, $65 mm rWAR: 4.0 fWAR: 4.5 Comment: Fangraphs only began putting a dollar value on WAR in 2002, the year after the ARod and Jeter contracts were signed. That value was $4 mm/WAR for 2002, and you can be sure it was significantly lower before that. By any measure, the Belle deal was a big loser for the O’s, as his injuries limited him to two seasons. Apparently insurance defrayed some of the cost, but in any event, Belle came nowhere near earning his contract. Alex Cobb (2018-21): 4 years, $57 mm rWAR: 0.6 (2 seasons) fWAR: 0.8 (2 seasons) Fangraphs value: $6.7 mm (2 seasons) Fangraphs deficit in value: -$21.3 mm (2 seasons) Comment: Cobb is out for the rest of this season, so we can look at his value and cost over two years even though there is a half-season to play. This contract is almost sure to end up underwater even if Cobb is healthy the next two years, and even if he was decent, his contract no longer serves a purpose on this rebuilding team. Unfortunately, his injuries have destroyed any trade value for now, even if we are willing to eat some salary. Better luck next year! Ubaldo Jimenez (2014-17): 4 years, $50 mm rWAR: 0.5 fWAR: 4.5 Fangraphs value: $36.4 mm Fangraphs deficit in value: $13.6 mm Comment: If you ever want an indictment of fWAR, this is it! Jimenez was terrible for 3 of his 4 seasons with us, and just OK the other season (2015). He had several good games, but overall was a huge disappointment. Give me the rWAR valuation here every day and twice on Sundays. JJ Hardy (2015-17): 3 years, $40 mm rWAR: 1.7 fWAR: 1.4 Fangraphs value: $11.4 mm Fangraphs deficit in value: -$28.6 mm Comment: Hardy seemingly started getting old the day he signed this deal. He had injuries all three seasons, particularly in 2015 and 2017, and by his final year was a shadow of his former self on both sides of the ball. He did manage a relatively healthy and productive 2016, and not coincidentally, the O’s made the wild card that year. Brian Roberts (2010-13): 4 years, $40 mm rWAR: 1.0 fWAR: 1.6 Fangraphs value: $10.6 mm Fangraphs deficit in value: -$29.4 mm Comment: This deal covered four free agent seasons and was signed a full year before it took effect, following a winter in which Roberts almost was traded to the Cubs. Roberts had an excellent 2009 (still under his prior contract) after signing this deal, but then a series of injuries and a serious, self-induced concussion kept Roberts off the field for the vast majority of his contract. Mark Trumbo (2017-19): 3 years, $37.5 mm rWAR: -0.2 (2.076 seasons) fWAR: -0.9 (2.076 seasons) Fangraphs value: -$7.2 mm (2.076 seasons) Fangraphs deficit in value: -$44.7 mm (2.076 seasons) Comment: This deal was signed after Trumbo’s 47 HR season that was a key component of the 2016 wild card run. Unfortunately, Trumbo was awful in 2017, had a half-decent 2018 cut short by injuries, and has missed all of 2019 so far. Another guy we might have hoped to trade for some salary relief this year but injuries took away any hypothetical chance of doing that. Scott Erickson (1999-03): 5 years, $31.5 mm rWAR: 0.1 fWAR: 2.8 Comment: Another deal done before Fangraphs started putting a dollar value on WAR, but easily $20mm+ underwater. Erickson missed 2 of the 5 seasons with injuries, and performed poorly in the others. Plus, the deal annoyed Mussina, who had signed a 3-year deal the year before because Angelos told him he didn’t believe in giving pitchers deals longer than 3 years. Darren O’Day (2016-19): 4 years, $31 mm rWAR: 1.9 (3.076 seasons) fWAR: 1.2 (3.076 seasons) Fangraphs value: $9.9 mm (3.076 seasons) Fangraphs deficit: -$21.1 mm (3.076 seasons)(-$7.4 mm as an Oriole) Comment: Another guy who seemingly got old the minute the ink was dry on his deal. O’Day went from being a healthy, consistently top set-up guy to being oft-injured and decent but inconsistent when healthy. While injured in 2018, he was traded as part of the Gausman deal, relieving the Orioles of about $13.7 in current salary and deferred payments, but probably significantly dampening the return for Gausman. A lot of people were upset by that at the time, but with O’Day still on the shelf today and Gausman not performing well at the moment, it doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did a year ago. Cal Ripken (1993-97): 5 years, $30.5 mm rWAR: 17.3 fWAR: 17.8 Comment: This deal was signed about 6 weeks before Cal was due to become a free agent, and at the time, was the biggest deal in baseball history. Cal was very good but not great the next five years, and in hindsight you probably could say it was a mild overpay considering the FA prices at the time, if all you looked at was on the field production. But when you consider Cal’s huge fan appeal, and the publicity generated as Cal chased and broke Lou Gehrig’s streak, there’s little doubt that Cal was worth every penny. Rafael Palmeiro (1994-98): 5 years, $30 mm rWAR: 23.4 fWAR: 24.9 Comment: A comparison between Raffy’s deal and Cal’s one year earlier shows that Raffy was the better on-the-field value. He produced all five years covered by the contract at a high level, and the O’s made the playoffs twice during that run. Certainly a solid winner of a contract. Brady Anderson (1998-2002): 5 years, $29.5 mm rWAR: 8.8 (8.9 as an Oriole) fWAR: 6.8 (7.2 as an Oriole) Comment: Signed a full season after his big 50-homer year, contrary to popular belief. Brady was productive for a couple years of this deal but fell off a cliff as it progressed, causing the O’s to release him with a full season left on the contract. Probably $10 mm underwater at the prices at the time. David Segui (2001-04): 4 years, $27.8 mm rWAR: 2.4 fWAR: 1.9 Comment: Segui hit pretty well when he actually played, but he was continuously hurt. Fangraphs valued his final 3 seasons at $700 k; they didn’t do valuations in 2001 but he arguably was worth $5-7 mm that year based on the 2002 valuation. So, this one was $20 mm underwater. Ramon Hernandez (2006-09): 4 years, $26.5 mm rWAR: 6.4 (7.3 as an Oriole) fWAR: 6.4 (6.4 as an Orioles) Fangraphs value: $32.9 mm ($32.7 mm as an Oriole) Fangraphs surplus value: $6.4 mm ($6.2 mm as an Oriole) Comment: The O’s signed Hernandez even though Javy Lopez had a year to go on his deal, because it was apparent that Lopez had lost his defensive skills. Hernandez had an excellent first year with the O’s, but went downhill from there. With the O’s expecting Matt Wieters’ arrival in 2009, they traded Hernandez after the 2008 season for Ryan Freel, Brandon Waring and Justin Turner. That could have turned out well if the O’s had recognized the potential of Turner. Melvin Mora (2007-09): 3 years, $25 mm rWAR: 4.0 fWAR: 5.6 Fangraphs value: $33.0 mm Fangraphs surplus value: $8.0 mm Comment: This deal was signed shortly after the 2006 season began, after terrific 2004-05 seasons by Mora under a very favorable contract. He also had played a key role in calming down Miguel Tejada over the winter, after Tejada briefly demanded a traded. Mora started slipping a bit in 2006 after signing the deal, was OK in 2007-08, and slid badly in the final year of the deal. As I recall, Fangraphs valued this as a mild loser at the time. But later, Fangraphs re-jiggered its WAR calculations and now it comes out on the positive side. I’d basically call it a break-even deal. Sidney Ponson (2004-06): 3 years, $22.5 mm rWAR: -0.7 (0.1 as an Oriole) fWAR: 4.5 (4.0 as an Oriole) Fangraphs value: $19.6 mm ($17.1 as an Oriole) Fangraphs deficit in value: -$2.9 mm (-$5.4 mm as an Oriole) Comment: Another case where I agree with rWAR and think fWAR is ridiculous. After signing his contract, Ponson came to camp fat as a whale, then spent the following offseason getting thrown into jail for punching a judge. He got caught for drunk driving that summer and the O’s released him and tried to void his contract, a move that apparently failed in the end. Javy Lopez (2004-06): 3 years, $22.5 mm rWAR: 6.3 (6.9 as an Oriole) fWAR: 6.1 (est. 6.1 as an Oriole) Fangraphs value: $21.1 mm (est. $26.6 mm as an Oriole) Comment: Lopez went from well above average to average to terrible in his 2.7 years in Baltimore. When we signed him, we were trying to play Lopez and Ivan Rodriguez against each other in negotiations, as if they were equal players. Big mistake. JJ Hardy (2012-14): 3 years, $22.5 mm rWAR: 10.3 fWAR: 8.6 Fangraphs value: $62.0 mm Fangraphs surplus value: $39.5 mm Comment: One of Andy MacPhail's parting gifts to the Orioles, signed in the second half of 2011. This deal was better than the 2015-17 deal was bad, as Hardy anchored the great defenses that led the O's to two playoff berths, including their one division title in the last 20 years. Yovani Gallardo (2016-17): 2 years, $22 mm rWAR: -0.3 (0.1 as an Oriole) fWAR: 0.7 (0.6 as an Oriole) Fangraphs value: $6.0 mm ($5.0 mm as an Oriole) Fangraphs deficit in value: -$16.0 mm (-$4.0 mm as an Oriole) Comment: The O’s initially signed Gallardo to a 3-year deal, but following a physical the deal was restructured as 2 years plus an option. Good move. After the 2016 season, the O’s were able to unload Gallardo’s remaining guaranteed year in a trade for Seth Smith. Mike Mussina (1998-2000): 3 years, $20.1 mm rWAR: 15.0 fWAR: 17.5 Comment: This deal was arguably too good, as it made the Player’s Association angry and then Moose got alienated when Angelos lowballed him in the next round of contract negotiations. Mussina was probably worth 2-3 times what he got paid in his 1998-2000 contract. Aubrey Huff (2007-09): 3 years, $20 mm rWAR: 2.7 (3.5 as an Oriole) fWAR: 2.8 (est. 3.6 as an Oriole) Fangraphs value: $15.8 mm (est. $20 mm as an Oriole) Fangraphs deficit in value: -$4.2 mm (est. $1 mm surplus as an Oriole) Comment: Almost all the value of this deal came in the 2008 season. Huff had a terrible 2009, and was traded at the waiver deadline to Detroit, where he was even worse. For me the big winners were Jones, Tejada, Ripken, Palmeiro, Hardy I and Mussina. The big losers were Davis, Belle, Cobb, Jimenez, Roberts, Hardy II, Trumbo, Erickson, O'Day, Anderson, Segui, Ponson, and Gallardo (though we really minimized that damage by trading him). I put Markakis, Mora, Lopez, Hernandez and Huff in the roughly break even category. So, the bad deals outnumber the good ones by about 2:1, and the Davis deal probably outweighs all the good ones all by itself.
  31. 6 points
  32. 6 points
    People on this board, which is full of people smarter than the average fan, still often cite BA as meaningful. Not as much as 10 years ago, but it still happens. Heck at least one person was complaining because we sent out the guy who led the team in Spring BA. This isn’t for us. This is for the casual fan. There are a lot of them. So get over yourself.
  33. 6 points
  34. 6 points
    Tony's response is appropriate. Loverro is either...out of touch or has an axe to grind. Or just needed to fart out a column to meet a deadline and couldn't be bothered to do any research. Or a combination of the three. And I like Loverro. I've been around him, he's a nice guy. It's easy to kick the Orioles while they're down, no doubt about it. The correct story to tell would be that Angelos is reportedly out of the picture, the sons are in charge and have given the reigns over to part of the FO team that helped get the Astros to become yearly contenders. That's all factual, not hyperbole. You can still write that column and still take shots at Angelos. By and large, his ownership has been a failure, no one will debate that.
  35. 6 points
    I view this through the long arc of history. The Washington Senators predated the Orioles. Under the AL charter at the time, they had the absolute right to veto a team moving to Baltimore. They didn’t do it. Meanwhile, Angelos had no absolute right to veto an NL team moving to DC. He came up with some legal arguments about how his TV rights would be affected if DC had a team, and leveraged that into the MASN deal. As an Orioles fan, I say good for him. But MLB did require that the TV rights be assigned “fair market value” and the lawyers left the standard for determining that very vague. I personally believe the decisions of the RSDC have been reasonably Solomonic. Neither side got what it wanted but both sides can live with it. The Nats chose to accept that they didn’t get all they wanted; Angelos didn’t and has protracted the dispute for 5-7 years. He got some short term benefits from that, but overall he has hurt the franchise by burning bridges with MLB and creating business uncertainty for the team. He would have been better off looking for win-win solutions rather than treating the MASN deal as a zero sum game. As to the team, they’ve hurt themselves by being poorly run far more than the Nats have hurt them. Would they be better off if the Nats weren’t here? Of course, but the Nats move didn’t have to have a major impact. The O’s have magnified its’ impact by their poorly run team.
  36. 6 points
    Baseball America weighs in https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/trade-central-red-sox-acquire-cashner-from-orioles/ Orioles Acquire Elio Prado, OF Age: 17 DSL Red Sox Prado was a relatively low-cost signing of the Red Sox out of Venezuela last year, but he’s quickly impressed in his very limited pro career. He runs well enough to potentially stay in center field and has a more advanced batting eye than the average teenager in the Dominican Summer League. Prado’s upside is as a center fielder with power and speed, but there are many years and many levels to master before he reaches that ceiling. Noelberth Romero, SS Age: 17 DSL Red Sox 2 Romero was the bigger name when the Red Sox signed this pair a year ago. A smooth defender with soft hands, a feel for the game and the actions to stay in the dirt, Romero has primarily played third base this season, although he should be able to handle shortstop or second base as well. He has a strong arm that may be plus one day. Like many young DSL players, a lot of his offensive potential will depend on how he fills out over the next half decade, but he has a smooth righthanded swing.
  37. 6 points
    Hopefully he reports to the Red Sox and pitches really well for them. Represented the Orioles really well this year.
  38. 6 points
    Please be aware of Oriole Hangout bylaw #34 Sec 6 lines 7-8 concerning the realm of speculation. "With respect to speculation in advance of an event, the only rule is that it's never to early to so speculate."
  39. 6 points
  40. 6 points
    The truth is, 90% of the posters have never seen any of our minor leaguers play, and frankly, wouldn’t know what to look for if they did. And the other 10% are only right in their assessments about half the time. We all have opinions, but a little humility is in order for pretty much everyone who tries to predict which of our prospects will pan out. In general, more will fail to meet hopes/expectations than will exceed them. That’s about all I can say. Back to Mountcastle, of course his K/BB ratio is a concern. And frankly, I’m as concerned about the K portion of that ratio as I am about the BB part. But to date, he has produced at every level despite his flaws. You just have to hope that will continue to be true in the majors, and that once he’s no longer advancing to higher and higher levels of competition, the plate discipline stuff will get a chance to catch up a little. But yes, the odds are very high that he’ll always have a very low walk rate.
  41. 6 points
    Yeah - definitely about time to start with ridiculously unrealistic trade return expectations
  42. 6 points
    In one day Elias and Co. have obliterated the previous number of signings ALL YEAR.
  43. 6 points
  44. 6 points
    We need OFFNY to swoop in and provide us with middle names.
  45. 6 points
  46. 6 points
    Watching Alex Wells is just fun to watch. He's literally the definition of a craft lefty and can throw four pitches for strikes in any count. Here's one at bat vs Alex Wells with Bowie tonight. RHB - CH 81 Up and away ball, Fb 88, down and in S, CB 73, down and in Foul, 84 slider (fouled tipped) inside, FB up and away 90 for strikeout swinging! That's pitching. Probably took about 40 seconds for the entire AB. His fastball sat 87-90 all night though he actually hit more 90s in the 5th and 6th inning. He spots the fastball low and away often and stays out of the middle of the plate. His change tonight was anywhere from 81-85, though he throws a lot around the 83-84. Despite the fact it's only 4-7 MPH off his fastball, he gets good fade and drop and keeps it low and away to righties. He did occasionally catch too much of the plate and it was hit for a couple singles and a double. The curveball is sharp and he can throw for strikes low in the zone. Sat 73-75 with the pitch and used it well against lefties and was not afraid to throw it to lefties. Saw a slider a few times and it was actually a pretty good pitch around 81-84. Actually threw one great left on left slider that broke across the zone away from the LHB. He's works so fast and keeps batters off timed with his assortment of pitches. When he missses, he rarely misses badly. Almost all of his pitches were competitive pitches. Batters know they are getting strikes, but have no idea what will be coming because he will throw anything in any count. Although he started to tire around 80 pitches, he was able to battle and work his way through some trouble in the 6th. His velocity was still there, but the command and fade of his change was lacking late. I was very impressed what I saw tonight from him. This was probably the most complete pitching performance I've seen from Wells and he has such a unique profile that this might just work in the major leagues.
  47. 6 points
    There is a range of potential outcomes for every prospect and a likelihood of reaching each of those outcomes. Projecting those isn't an exact science, but for a player who isn't in AA/AAA, their grade is going to be lower than their ceiling, in some cases significantly lower for particularly risky prospects. Yes Daschbach has a chance to be an everyday player (50 grade), that type of player is worth 28M in surplus value according to Fangraphs valuation. So by that logic, if you think he has a 10% chance of being that type of player and a greater chance of being a lessor but still useful MLB guy, he'd be well worth a 300k bonus.
  48. 6 points
    And as far as the stadium gun, it seemed pretty spot on. Kline was 96-98 the day before this , which is typical for him. Lowther 87-91 (lower than last year, but that’s where he’s been pretty much all this season) Tate 94-97 Araujo 90-94
  49. 5 points
    No, it'll be you, mocking the fact that they left $88.12 in '19 signing dollars on the table. On the back of the shirt you'll use a Sharpie to write the URL of the thread where you predicted they wouldn't use all the money.
  50. 5 points
    I just reviewed this thread, and just.....wow. Martin was not ready for this assignment, but here it is. He is probably sticking this year and playing at AAA next year, but there is no reason for anyone to be this cruel. Comparing a professional baseball player to a stuffed animal? Outrageous. I give him the benefit of the fact he is working his tail off and learning on the fly. At least respect that.
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