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Showing content with the highest reputation on 4/11/2011 in all areas

  1. 12 points
    The key here is to figure out why Wieters is not hitting major league pitching close to what he did in the minors. Saying that major league pitching is better is NOT the answer to this question. There have been plenty of players with minor league numbers a lot worse than Wieters' who have been more successful sooner in their major league career. One thing that really stands out if you look at Wieters' stats is that he really doesn't do well at all if the pitcher gets ahead in the count. Take a look at these stats from Baseball Reference: Let's compare this to Brian Roberts: The only time Brian Roberts hits better than Matt Wieters is when they are behind in the count. In terms of percentages faced in their careers in each situation it's remarkably close between Wieters and Roberts. Both hit ahead in the count about 37% of the time, even in the count about 35% of the time, and behind in the count about 28% of the time. Here are the career OPS of some other Orioles regulars when they are behind in the count: Adam Jones - .587 Vladimar Guerrero - .700 Luke Scott - .491 Nick Markakis - .626 Mark Reynolds - .496 Derrek Lee - .556 JJ Hardy - .605 A couple more young non-Orioles players OPS' when they are behind: Buster Posey - .616 Jason Heyward - .580 Wieters is a much worse hitter behind in the count than most major leaguers. It is safe to say that so far in his career, Matt Wieters is a poor major league hitter behind in the count. Going one step further - look at this stat. Swinging on the first pitch he sees in a plate appearance, Wieters has an OPS of .864 in his career. In comparison, Brian Roberts has a career OPS of .737 when he swings at the first pitch. Wieters has 6 of his 20 career homeruns on the first pitch. It's plain to see that so far Wieters just doesn't hit well when the pitcher has an advantage in the count. We don't know why. Perhaps Wieters is a good guess hitter, or he chases pitches too much behind in the count. In any event, I'd rather see Wieters be more aggressive earlier in the count going forward, so there is less of a chance of him falling behind in the count where he hits so poorly.
  2. 1 point
    Lighter bat and back in the box to the rear line like Cabrera of the Tigers. He needs more time to see the pitch apparently and maybe if he puts his rear foot on the back line of the batters box it will help him a little bit. It's worth a shot. Maybe Buck can switch his bat to a little bit lighter one. Even if its only a half an ounce lighter. One of the Baseball Guide Books has the following info about bats; Does the weight of a baseball bat affect the distance the baseball will travel? Yes. The way you can see if the bat is heavy or not is to hold upwards with one hand. Doesn't seem that heavy does it, now hold it horizontally. Now it seems way more heavier. If you cant hold it very well then you should find a lighter bat. Keep doing this until you find a perfect bat. Does the mass of a baseball bat relate to the distance the baseball travels? Yes, as does, of course, the strength of the swing. Too heavy of a bat will result in a weaker swing. Every batter has their own specific bat mass that allows them to hit the ball further according to their swinging abilities. It can take quite a bit of time and investigation for a player to determine which bat is right for them. Matt should be experimenting with different bats trying to find the one that lets him get around faster/quicker. It stands to reason if you can't pull a ball coming in at 89 mph you are not going to pull it coming in at 94 mph. He probably didn't see many pitches over 90 at GT and in the minors. He is seeing it regularly now so it's time to adjust.
  3. 1 point
    What does it mean when mean when people move on from the OH? I always thought it meant that their wife/girlfriend said they were "spending too much time on that computer doing that stupid Orioles thing instead of spending time with me/the family. You know, your kids are growing up and you can't peel yourself away long enough to go out and throw the ball with your son. What's wrong with you... is it that important? Are you addicted? Do you need to go to counseling? Oh... you are in heaven now... watching the game on TV while talking about it with your friends on computer! Can't you just watch the highlights on sportscenter or something? Do you even know those people you are talking to on the internet? Are they safe? They are probably all just a bunch of baseball nerds." Yeah - but that kind of stuff is never said at my house...
  4. 1 point
    Agree with this, although I don't want to see him called up for personal, and selfish reasons. My guess is since the all-star game is in Delmarva this year they will keep him around until at least then. Can't wait for the series on June 9-11 when Bryce Harper is in town. That should be fun to watch! I know that when a player is not even 20 years old yet they probably wish to move them along slowly just because they are trying to develop good people as well as good baseball players. I spoke with him yesterday after the game and he is the real deal. Very approachable and nice. Realizes that talking to the media is part of the job and is not arrogant at all. Mature beyond his age. I hope he continues to develop in the right direction and don't wish to jinx him, since he has only played 4 games, but the future sure looks bright for him.
  5. 1 point
    I have been to every game this season, and do the write-ups for Delmarva on here. Opposing pitchers often begin behind in the count to him and, from the looks of it, do not wish to throw him strikes even when they are behind in the count. He has been intentionally walked once. He has tremendous discipline at the plate and only swings at strikes. When he swings he puts good contact on it, the only exception was on his first hit of the season, which was a broken bat single. He has hit a few line drives that one hop the fence. His triple on opening night hit the fence in the air and you could hear it hit the fence through the glass in the press box! My guess is that opposing pitchers definitely know who he is and wish to avoid throwing him 90 mph fastballs down the heart of the plate, even on the first pitch.
  6. 1 point
    Another thing to consider is he out thinking himself at the plate? As a catcher, is he thinking, this is what I would call but the other catcher is just a step ahead of him? I'm not suggesting this is all of his problems, because I think his long swing has more to do with then how he's being pitched, but it might be part of the problem.
  7. 1 point
    Wieters doesn't get behind in the count any more often than Brian Roberts. The numbers say he has about the same percentage of at-bats ahead, even, and behind the count than Brian Roberts does. In my opinion, it's Wieters' approach when he does get behind that hurts him.Wieters gets away with his long swing when he is ahead in the count. He has very respectable numbers (OPS over 1.0) when he is ahead of the count. Wieters is a bit better than Brian Roberts, and on-par with Buster Posey when he is ahead in the count. My assumption is that ahead in the count Wieters guesses on the pitch, and when he guesses right he is a good hitter. He's probably getting a lot of fastballs in the strike zone when the pitcher is behind, and when Wieters guesses fastball and is right, he gets his swing started early and hits the ball well. The stats show that Weiters' best pitch to hit in his career has been the fastball. My guess is he generally lays off the breaking pitches when he is ahead in the count. When Wieters is behind in the count, he can't just look for a fastball in the zone anymore. Wieters has 0 homeruns and only 5 doubles in 257 plate appearances when he is behind in the count. If he was swinging aggressively behind in the count, you would think he would have more extra base hits. This leads me to believe he probably does cut down his swing when behind in the count, but that's not working for him. He also swings at pitches outside the zone when behind in the count to protect the plate, but he has to start his bat earlier which gives him less room for error. He can be fooled pretty easily because he has to start his swing earlier. In short, I would guess Wieters long swing works okay when he can guess effectively when he is ahead in the count. When he is behind in the count, Wieters approach does not work. There is two ways to improve Wieters general approach to hitting. One is to be more aggressive and swing earlier in the count so he doesn't get behind. The second is to have a better approach when he is behind. The first approach of being more aggressive seems a bit easier to do. In my mind, it is quite a big change to shorten up his stroke a bit to give him more time for pitch recognition to make him a better hitter when he is behind in the count. It looks like he's tried that already when he's behind and it really hasn't worked for him yet.
  8. 1 point
  9. 1 point
    Wieters is much worse than most of the Orioles (and probably most major leaguers) behind in the count. All hitters are worse hitters behind in the count, but Wieters is really bad in comparison. So for about 28% of his at-bats (when Wieters hits behind in the count), Wieters hits worse than even Cesar Izturiz in the same situation. The entire difference between Brian Roberts hitting and Matt Wieters hitting is that Wieters is SO POOR behind in the count. Wieters is a good major league hitter when he is ahead in the count.Fangraphs has a couple of interesting stats that shed a little light on the subject. Wieters had a slightly better year in 2009 (his rookie season in the majors) than he did in 2010. In 2009, Matt Wieters swung at 25.7% of the pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing %). Pitchers threw Wieters a first pitch strike 53% of the time. In 2010, Wieters swung at 30% of the pitches outside the strike zone. Pitchers threw Wieters a first pitch strike 59.6% of the time. Combined with the other data, it suggests than Wieters regression in 2010 can perhaps partially be explained by pitchers getting ahead of Wieters, and Wieters expanding the strike zone as a result of getting behind in the count. In turn, Wieters Z-Swing % is been trending down in his first three years. In short, it seems he is swinging at more balls than strikes than he did initially. Instead of Wieters pitch recognition improving, it seems it is on the decline. So far this year, Wieters is swinging at 31.7% of the pitches outside the strike zone, and pitchers are throwing him a first pitch strike 58.6% of the time. Maybe the pitching book on Wieters is to get ahead of him, and then he will expand the zone by swinging at off-speed pitches off the plate. And perhaps Wieters should respond by being more aggressive in ripping these first pitch strikes.
  10. 1 point
    Thanks for the kind words Tony, and also thanks for doing some more research on the subject.
  11. 1 point
    I made three predictions on the Bob Haynie show before the season started. Two of them involved Zach Britton. I predicted Britton would win rookie of the year and he would also lead the team in wins. That's how good I think Zach Britton is already.
  12. 1 point
    Honestly, who does? But this @#$! gets extreme. http://bosoxgifs.imgur.com/beltre_head_rubs/ Best part? Why is it always Victor Martinez? No wonder Beltre didn't resign with the Red Sox.
  13. 1 point
    If we are going to shine a light on Wieters, we might as well shine it on Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts as well. Both have looked terrible lately at the plate, especially Roberts. Wieters isn't the only one not hitting, and in that Tampa series, he had a pretty quick bat. It was more important for him to get on base and work the pitcher lately so that's what he's been trying to do as he hasn't had a ton of chances to drive guys in hitting lower in the lineup. And he's also done better batting up in the order. Not sure why Buck moved him down when he was starting to do well. I don't think people realized how good Texas' pitching really is. And Justin Verlander isn't a slouch either. In Wieters' slump he has faced Verlander, Lewis, Harrison and Holland, not exactly your typical #4 or #5 starters. It will be interesting to see how he does vs. the Yankees' arms who aren't as good as the Rangers pitchers.
  14. 1 point
  15. 1 point
    I haven't sat on him yet this year, so I'm withholding judgment for the time being. I had three amateur scouts (pro, but scout Rule 4 amateurs) express opinions to me. One said he saw Wieters briefly in ST and felt he wasn't far away from breaking through, but needed to be more aggressive in the right situations. Another quipped that the defense is so much better than expected that almost anything you get from the bat is gravy (he wasn't high on the bat). Third said he thinks Wieters starts breaking down sooner than later with the wear-and-tear of catching, and that his usefulness will plummet (though he'll be an above-average regular until then). None considered him a bust; none would say they thought he was going to reach his hype.
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