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311 Triple-A

About Hallas

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    Somewhere in the LA area
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    software engineer

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  1. I don't believe that Trumbo would attract a similar package today if his 28-year-old self were on the trade market today. Teams seem to be moving away from trading for all-bat 1B types.
  2. The glasses probably didn't help. I almost wonder if he grew the mustache to make himself look more manly.
  3. Well this is a trip down Memory Lane. I had always seen Milligan as a player that was woefully underappreciated as an MLB ballplayer. It looks like he was also woefully underappreciated as a minor league prospect. He OPSed .877 in a 1/2 season of AA as a 22 year old, and they rewarded him by making him repeat an entire season in AA, where he OPSed .870. Then he gets bounced around as a 24 year old, and OPSes 1.033 as a 25 year old in AAA. I can only guess that this was because he wasn't a power hitter, so they assumed his ability to draw walks wouldn't translate to MLB. My how times have changed. A player, even a 1B, OPSing 1.033 in AAA and not getting a call-up would be seen as criminal today.
  4. Yeah I do believe they deduct the cost of attendance. Nonetheless you can add $250K to stanfords number and $120K to Auburn's number and it's more or less accurate for salary. It really doesn't change the outcome though. That 2.3 million, properly invested over 20 years, will crush about 90% of the returns from staying in school.
  5. He committed to Auburn - not exactly Stanford. The 20 year ROI from Stanford is around $800K, according to this article. Given the very high probability of injury that completely ruins your draft status in 2-3 years, you'd have to do some serious financial gymnastics to make a plausible case that $2.3 million now (this is low-first round money, by the way) is worth less than whatever he's going to make 3 years from now + 3 years of school from a non-elite university. If you take the ROI of Auburn it becomes even harder to justify, as the 20-year ROI there is in the 300K range.
  6. Sure, but he also OPSed .826 in 2017, so while his 2018/2019 differences are stark, its not like he's never hit MLB pitching.
  7. Hallas

    Trey is hurt

    Technically true. Also true: with our best player it will be difficult to win games.
  8. He has 7 meltdowns and 5 blown saves. Chapman would have probably converted 4 of those blown saves into wins.
  9. The first (glass-half-full) comp that comes to mind is Johan Santana, who was a Rule 5 pick, then added 2 MPH on his fastball and became a CYA candidate for 6 years. There's a lot of similarity there, from the unexplained velo increase to the fantastic changeup to the low walk rate, though Santana was 2 years younger . when he really broke through. Pitchers in general have wacky aging curves, which mostly consist of "is your UCL, labrum, and rotator cuff still intact? if yes then you won't age much. If no then you'll fall off a cliff." So the age probably means less than it would if he were a position player. Still his max velocity is still a couple ticks lower than Santana in his prime, and velocity in general is easier to come by now, so he's probably not an ace. Maybe a #2, or a very good mid-rotation guy on a strong staff.
  10. BABIP is somewhat influenced by park effects, particularly on flyballs, but also on grounders (speed of infield - artificial infields tend to inflate babip.) I imagine that it's not 60 points of batting average different though.
  11. Fun fact: Adam Jones it hitting better than Machado right now. .811 OPS (107 OPS+) vs .758 OPS (103 OPS+). I don't think Petco is being very kind to Manny right now.
  12. While it was a tad excessive, I figure you get a break on walkoffs.
  13. C Matt Wieters 1B Randy Milligan 2B Brian Roberts SS Cal Ripken 3B Cal Ripken (or Manny Machado if I can't have repeats) LF Brady Anderson CF Adam Jones RF Nick Markakis DH Sam Horn SP1 Mike Mussina SP2 Erik Bedard SP3 Chris Tillman RP1 Gregg Olson RP2 Zach Britton
  14. Hallas

    WAR is a JOKE

    On the defensive side, you could spot Alomar ~3 wins for defense (essentially giving him 15 runs above average for his defense, instead of 15 runs below.) and Trout would still beat Alomar. You don't really need advanced metrics to know that Trout is in the same category as Mantle and Willie Mays, and blows Robbie A out of the water.
  15. Possibly. I think racism is pretty prevalent in sports scouting, not just in baseball but everywhere.
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