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About Hallas

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    Somewhere in the LA area
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    software engineer

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  1. Hallas

    2019 Draft Order Tracker

    That means we get more IFA money!
  2. Hallas

    An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

    I don't think it's a stretch for a mediocre hitter to produce MVP-caliber seasons on the strength of defense. Whenever I've seen him play he's been a human highlight reel, so, at least to me, he passes the eye test. And if you believe he is as good a defender as the numbers suggest (perennial GG candidate), then I believe WAR has him valued correctly. He is from Curacao. He just went to college in the USA so he was draft-eligible. According to Wikipedia, he was apparently too skinny as a 16 year old so he didn't really attract the attention of scouts.
  3. Hallas

    Mr Tango has me confused.

    I've had to go over this a couple times, but I looks like it's only measuring the widest gap between infielders (or infielders + pitcher if you're counting him). It's not telling you where the shift is occurring. It says in general terms, don't shift such that you leave more than 29 degrees (or 34 degrees not including the pitcher) are exposed. That amount of leeway gives defenses a huge amount of leeway to position for shifts, but it does make (semi) clear that there is a limit to how much you should expose the weak side when shifting.
  4. Hallas

    An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

    Andrelton Simmons is basically Manny Machado on defense, except he has the range to play SS. His arm may even be stronger. If you're ever watching Angels games to watch Trout, I would highly suggest you take a secondary look at Simmons playing defense. It's pretty breathtaking. The seasons where he hits better than average end up being 7-8 WAR seasons for him because he is playing shortstop and his defensive numbers are so good.
  5. The one by Bradley? It had a hit probability of 39%. But I don't entirely trust Statcast hit probability. It's listed some 420+ shots in LCF/RCF as having a hit probability less than 100%. No major league stadium has power alleys that deep.
  6. Gausman has produced more than you would expect, with 2 full years + rest of this season remaining of pre-FA time, from a 75 FV pitching prospect. I think pitching is really hard over long periods, and coaching pitchers/keeping them healthy is really hard. The Orioles suck at developing pitchers. But no one is particularly good at it other than maybe the Braves, and the O’s have had some moderate successes.
  7. The two plays that stood out were the two triples where he whiffed on the catch but Jones wouldn’t have even come close to getting to. I think he should have caught both those balls though to be honest. Were there any other notable plays from CF this series? I’m talking major leagues only - I know about his rep from the minors.
  8. Hallas

    Mullins is with the Orioles! (edited)

    Mullins was also about 3/4 of the way to Mancini’s starting position. That was the LF’s ball 100%. The fact that Mullins was even in the vicinity highlights the difference in range between a plus defender and a marginal COF
  9. Hallas

    Let's Beat the Red Sox (8/10)

    I don't know. Looks like a familiar face though.
  10. Hallas

    Mullins is with the Orioles! (edited)

    He hit 92! And he says he was only 80% effort!
  11. Hallas

    2019 Draft Order Tracker

    #1 still has the best outcome by a decent margin, followed closely by 2. #3 apparently is fairly cursed. https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/
  12. The current baseball "meta" is a response to the 1990s and early 2000s power hitting explosion. But that style of hitting is becoming harder to succeed with, in my opinion partly because increased PED testing has made it harder for athletes to have the requisite bodies for it. When you combine that with the increased pitcher velocity, it's not hard to see why strikeouts are ballooning. It seems like these meta-shifts takes about 10 or so years to stabilize. My theory is that scouts notice these trends, and using today's environment as an example, they would begin selecting away from players with questionable contact skills. So the top prospects in the next couple years are going to be more heavily selected for contact skills, ability to catch up to 95+ heat, and bat control (to prevent a shift from being effective.) I know that baseball tends to make subtle rules changes to keep the situation from getting too extreme (such as when they increased the bottom of the strike zone by an inch or two a few years back.) I think that sort of minor maintenance is all that should be needed. Someone suggested mound height adjustment - that's a good lever. I don't like draconian things like banning the shift. Some of these countershifts in the baseball meta are already happening. For example, velocity is less correlated than before with positive outcomes for pitchers.
  13. Are you referring to the Red Sox and Yankees? Because I don't necessarily think the Red Sox are recession-proof. They've had a 20-year period of relative success, which I attribute more to having good management, rather than having intrinsic advantages. If Canadians decided they liked to watch baseball more the scariest team from a financial standpoint (excluding the Yankees) is actually the Blue Jays. The Yankees are a different story, of course, and the fact that they've had no fewer than 3 decade-long dynasties is reflective of this. The next expansion into NYC should really involve a 3rd team in the NYC area. I know that won't happen, of course. But even if you divide their market share in half, they would have a larger local audience than an undivided Chicago, which is the 3rd biggest market.
  14. Hallas

    Chris Davis

    you're not wrong.
  15. Hallas

    Chris Davis

    To be fair, the only reason he gets a chance to be the worst player in ML history is because he put up a 7-win and 5-win season before.