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hoosiers

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hoosiers last won the day on July 23 2009

hoosiers had the most liked content!

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580 Triple-A

About hoosiers

  • Rank
    Plus Member
  • Birthday 8/18/1968

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  • Location
    New Jersey
  • Homepage
    http://
  • Interests
    Sports, Os, IU athletics
  • Occupation
    Senior Vice President of Finance
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Matt Wieters

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  1. hoosiers

    BR: O's farm system 18th; list of 10 prospects

    Back to the Os farm ranking, I think the list of Os prospects is a respectable effort and our positioning is ballpark (a tad low for me).
  2. hoosiers

    PressBox: D.J. Stewart Thinks He Could Help

    Well that explanation makes sense, but I am not sure if I have ever heard that distinction - it's college, juco and high school in at least 99% of sources I read.
  3. hoosiers

    PressBox: D.J. Stewart Thinks He Could Help

    Not sure what you meant but "4 year college guys", but I would interpret that those players drafted were college seniors when, in fact, nearly all of the college guys taken were juniors with Bickford as a J2 (I believe this is junior college) and Benintendi who was a draft-eligible sophomore.
  4. hoosiers

    PressBox: D.J. Stewart Thinks He Could Help

    Really thrilled for DJ Stewart. He might be the first minor leaguer my son has met that is now in the Show. We saw DJ play the Brooklyn Cyclones in Coney Island around July 13, 2015 shortly after DJ was drafted. I believe I posted about it here and just reviewed my Facebook post from that time. Stewart promised my son he would sign a ball and take a picture after the game and, sure enough, after the Ironbirds won and did their victory high-fives, Stewart walked over to us and took a picture and signed multiple balls. We had been down to Baltimore for a Saturday game where my son scored a warm up between innings ball from Chris Parmalee and then had over 20 Ironbirds sign that ball. He scored another ball during the Ironbirds game and DJ signed that one. What I remember most was enjoying some Nathan's hot dogs at the Original Nathan's hot dog stand about two blocks from the ballpark with my father-in-law and my son after the game when DJ and a couple Ironbirds walked by. The traffic had been horrible and I guess these guys were walking to the hotel or going to get to the hotel later. My son ran up to DJ and they exchanged high-fives again and chatted for 30 seconds. I think you can tell a lot by how these guys interact with the young fans - whether they initiate and extend conversations or simply want to move on. I know my son is a big DJ Stewart fan and I am too. That doesn't make him a good ballplayer, but IMO he has character and his .859 OPS in Bowie last year hopefully portends some major league success. Best of luck, DJ Stewart!
  5. Agree 100% and there is plenty more to criticize. Many folks just want to credit the GM for the winning years, but I have insisted for some time that DD inherited a pat hand - we just didn't know it in 2012 how many guys on the team at the end of 2011 had all-star years ahead of them. DD blames ownership for trying to extend the window (and leading to the current debacle) - well, what would have happened if DD had run the ship his way? When did DD think the re-build should have begun - after 2016? We know how it has been the past two years. Before 2016? If so, then it was ownership that pushed the GM to make moves to get into the playoffs that year.
  6. I just re-read the article and IMO the quotes from DD are not so bad. We are the worst team and he is simply candid about that. He mentions this going in cycles - that's his interpretation of these things go - and says we (and the Royals) had a good run, but now the franchise are not in good shape - in other words, at the bottom end of the cycle. He says ownership neglected to invest in our future properly - all as part of a conscious decision to extend the competitiveness portion of our cycle. Honestly, I am not a DD apologist and was probably among the more critical posters of DD during the 2013-2016 time frame as our present situation seemed quite likely based on the moves of our FO, but the quotes don't sound so bad to me. We are woefully short on talent, and I believe DD should capture a large share of the blame. Still, I think continuity is important to an organization and I also believe DD is the right guy to create a competitive international operation and would have little issue if he were given a two year extension - and then re-evaluate the status of the re-build at that point.
  7. I don't doubt at all that this is what happened. I spent much time defending PA here a while back, but the selfishness inherent in the post above from PA is spectacular and a primary reason why there is no appropriate reason to defend him anymore. The Os have been in this "all-in" Machado window for several years and it is clear the reason for this had more to do with PA's health and his desire to see another WS victory in his lifetime than to do what was in the best interest of the organization. There is no way, for instance, that DD and BS did not realize would we not be competitive this season and did not recommend selling off pieces before the season. At the same time, however, I would like to point out two things. We would not be the first organization DD left that had mediocre forward prospects and an average or worse farm system. DD was probably on-board or even devised the competitive window that has been seized by ownership for the "all in" effort the last several seasons that included ownership taking up the payroll into the $160M area. The second thing is that DD is not without blame here. I don't think it was Peter Angelos who picked out Travis Snider as a trade target in 2015. Or who tried to sign Grant Balfour for 2014. Or who offered Brian Matusz arbitration prior to 2016 and then dealt him 1.5 months into the season along with a high draft pick. Or who signed Ryan Webb to a two year deal and then dealt Webb away a year later along with a high draft pick. And I don't really care if PA coaxed DD into signing Jimenez and Gallardo to awful contracts while losing draft picks or if those moves are strictly on DD, the fact of the matter is that we had very few options otherwise given DD's neglect of the farm, his trades (Jake, Davies, EdRod, etc.). As far as I am concerned, what DD speaks now of ownership's decisions reflect half-truths of responsibility Management did not invest properly internationally, sure, but management also gave DD a $160+M payroll that he had mediocre success with. When did DD realize he should pull back and sell assets? And even if that time were in 2015 and 2016, isn't that a realization that the team he had inherited and built upon for several years was uncompetitive.
  8. hoosiers

    Joseph for the second time calls out the team

    I am fine with Buck staying. This team lacks talent not good coaches. That is just my opinion. IMO, the lack of talent should have fingers pointed at DD. I think DD has made plenty of poor moves, but I believe many poor moves were done at the direction of ownership. I like the scouting and development guys in place and worry they would be let go in favor of a new GM's desire to get his guys into key positions. I would prefer to have continuity and let DD build this back up his way - especially if we really are going to commit annual resources to the international market. If Buck wants to stay through the next two big losing seasons, and would do so at a lower salary (not paying him as a top manager), I would be fine with him staying.
  9. The same could be said of the Schoop/Villar trade. Villar already has 1.3 WAR as an Oriole and carries a $2.6M annual salary while Schoop is at .2 WAR with an $8.5M salary. Plus we picked up prospects. Kind of remarkable how well DD did in this trade, but folks want to belly-ache up a storm of complaints in the Gausman deal which was one-third a salary dump, one-third prospects and one-third international slots. I think DD did quite well in both deals.
  10. hoosiers

    No fight, no passion , no pulse....no chance...

    This team is so under-talented relative to our competition it is simply ridiculous. Rickard and others are doing the best they can, but the sum of these parts totals a team totaling lacking in quality major league talent. To vent that under-talented players don't care, have no fight or passion is, IMO, simply venting.
  11. hoosiers

    How Long is the Road to Contention?

    I think it will be a four or five year rebuild and I get there a couple of ways. First, Davis needs to come off the books. We may buy him out, but the $17M per year goes through 2022. Sure, the Os could still compete with youngsters and a wasted $17M isn't the end of the world if the Os tried to put together a competitive $140M roster, but until that $17M properly yields about 2.5-3 WAR, it certainly hampers our competitiveness. That said, we will have a ton of $ available to invest in free agency during our next competitive window to supplement our farm system. Second, we may have several pitchers turn out better than expected from the guys who figure to make a good portion of starts the next four years - Bundy, hopefully Harvey, Akin, Lowther, Ortiz, Kremer, but I do not think we will be competitive until a year or two after DL Hall arrives in the majors. Assuming no injury, I believe Hall can be up sometime in late 2021. His real rookie season could be 2022 and he can be counted on as a contributor in a competitive team in 2023. GrayRod should arrive at the same time or a year delayed. Third, a strong farm system usually is a necessary precursor to competing. We sit middle of the league right now and should have graduations of Hays, Akin, Lowther, Mountcastle, Diaz and Ortiz in the next few years. We really won't have a top five farm system until after drafting top of the league for two or three straight years. If we have a competitive international operation by 2020, we should be able to enter 2021 or 2022 with a top five farm system and should compete a year or two after that. It is really difficult IMO to conjure up a scenario where we are competitive in 2021. The NYY, BoSox and Rays should still be among the best 10 teams in MLB with Toronto perhaps not far behind. I think our win total in 2022 will ramp up from 2021 and we should see a competitive window open up entering 2023. It can go faster especially if the top end talent (Hays, Harvey, Mountcastle, Diaz, Ortiz, Hall, Lowther, maybe VVM) moves fast and turn out more talented, but that is difficult to see as a realistic possibility from where I sit. We'll see.
  12. The Rays most certainly do NOT "manicure their roster" to be a .500 team. Next year's Rays will be comfortably better than .500 and it is likely the Rays have a three to four year window at the least - and likely longer window than what is ahead of the BoSox. The Rays invest in their farm system. They invest internationally. They make very few long term large contract commitments. They sign their best players to bargain contracts that buy-out the first year or two of free agency. They trade their best players near peak value for quality minor league prospects. They are very aware of the competitive positioning of their team. I have posted here about 100 times - Os fans love the Bedard trade, but don't want to do it again if the team is competitive even if guaranteed that the return will be outstanding. Think of the all the players the Os have held past their prime in the last 15 years - let's start with Melvin Mora. A utility player in a trade with the Mets, Mora became a 2.5+ WAR player in his age 29 season and then provided over 4 WAR annually for less than $4M annually for the next four seasons! How about trading Mora entering the last year of a bargain contract 3 years/$10.5M in his age 34 season. No, let's see his production fall by 50% to 2.2 WAR and then sign him to a 3 year $25M extension through his age 37 season! Think of all the players the Os have held past peak production and think of the return the Os could have received had they dealt JJohnson, BRob, Markakis, Wieters, Davis, Hardy, Britton, Manny and others at the right point in their production/value curve. Hindsight may be 20/20, but that curve generally falls around the first or second year of arbitration around the age 26/27 season. Folks here have to decide if they want to win or have a core of players hang around into their early 30s when their production wanes and injuries generally set in. To look at it another way - the Rays are the sixth best team in the AL. They are 6 games back in the second wild card and a month ago, traded one of their best SPs for a failed SP prospect and other prospects. Even if not good enough this year, the Rays were well set up for next year with Archer. Would you be prepared to do that if you were an Os fan?
  13. hoosiers

    Rosenthal: Orioles are in a state of confusion

    I have to say this is purely a bunch of horsebleep as far as I am concerned. The "blow it up" group here has been advocating for trades of players with value as far back as the 2013 trade deadline and off-season to avoid the very situation we are dealing with today. I know I advocated dealing players like Wieters, Davis, Hardy and several others back in 2013 and 2014 when those players were near peak trade value to re-cycle that major league talent for quality minor leaguers - much as we see the As and Rays do - and boy don't those franchises do a lot more with a lot less $ than we do. No, the blow it up group has been warning we would be exactly in the position we are in today if the front office pursued its "win at all costs and rebuild later" philosophy. I know I posted that the only way to compete after Manny was if Harvey, Gausman and Bundy all emerged as 2 or better and Hays and others were successful major leaguers almost right away. No, we are here exactly where we should be after following the "let's keep the band together as long as we can and rebuild afterward" group to this point. And, now, from the looks of it, many folks are not mature enough to deal with this afterward part - after years of neglect of the farm team, forfeiting and trading draft picks (and hearing folks say how smart DD was to get so much $ compensation for those picks), here we are with folks screaming at management, ownership and everyone else. It will be a long rebuild. Look at the young Rays. When will we have a 1B prospect equivalent to Bauers, a 2B as good as Wendle, a SS prospect like Adames, a 3B like Duffy and OFers like Pham, pitchers like Snell? And even if we catch the Rays, when will we compete again with the BoSox and NYY? This will take years. It will take a focused investment internationally and strong drafting and a 'scour the earth' approach giving every recent released prospect a chance to play for us - and good trades. I am happy, though, that the rebuild is upon us - we are closer to our next competitive team than we were at the beginning of the year. I am a fan for life. The rebuild is here and we are starting from the very bottom of the league - by a comfortable margin. Let's roll up our sleeves and get to work.
  14. hoosiers

    An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

    Agreed. The second rated guy is a 1B and there is already a "some swing and miss" in the write-up for the third guy. Still a lot of time for others to develop and improve, but Adley sounds like both the top player and perhaps the safest player to pick - at least from the college ranks. Rutschman would be a huge asset to add to the organization, IMO.
  15. hoosiers

    An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

    Late to this party, but this article should really have its own thread. The article is excellent and, frankly, I have been waiting 10-15 years for it. I have long pointed out that the worst Orioles hitting draft picks were old at the time of their draft - both Brian Bass (first round) and Corey Shafer (second round) - very early picks who did nothing but strikeout when playing against age appropriate competition. Shafer was drafted out of HS and turned 20 in the December after his draft. Shafer hit over .700 OPS just once - as a 21 year old in rookie ball (!) where hit .871. Shafer only made it to Delmarva in his age 23 season and had an OPS under .500 in 20 games. Anyone who read the highly recommended book Outliers from Malcolm Gladwell is familiar with how bigger, older kids at early youth sports often show success (because they are bigger and older) and then receive the best training and play the best competition and how that early age and size advantage can last well into the teenage and pro sports levels. It can be VERY difficult for younger kids to catch up. So I am not surprised at the results in the article at all. I am somewhat incredulous that such an article is published AFTER the 2018 season given all the studies and metrics and the focus on analytics. I have to think more than a couple franchises already knew the information in that article, but it is clear that many franchises, possibly a majority of franchises, likely did not. I also think it is an astonishing failure of the scouting community for not adjusting for the impact of ages in what is recommended.
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