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About now

  • Rank
    Hangout Contributor
  • Birthday 7/13/1950

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  • Location
    Salt Spring Island, BC
  • Homepage
  • Interests
    playing African drums, writing
  • Occupation
    copy editor
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Trey Mancini
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Brooks Robinson

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  1. now

    The Oriole Killer Hall of Fame

    Don Buford I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ Baltimore Orioles 72 62 285 248 41 77 10 5 0 15 19 9 32 29 .310 .389 .391 .780 97 1 1 2 2 2 2 .348 111
  2. now

    Epic Fail

    That's right. Also I agree the ERA+ and OPS+ figures would be more accurate. And I would be curious about the PECOTA comps...
  3. now

    Epic Fail

    I don't know how historic is this epic fail of the 2018 Orioles, but it's shocking the extent of the collapse, up and down the roster. (I'd love to see the all-time Pecota over- and underachievers.) For now, I ran a simple spreadsheet to show percentage of decline (23 players) or improvement (7 players) over career averages, using ERA and OPS. The following chart is the result. Player 2018 career difference Tillman 10.46 4.57 -129% Cobb 6.19 3.68 -68% Susac 269 657 -59% Rasmus 317 747 -58% O'Day 3.77 2.56 -47% Davis 464 802 -42% Brach 4.24 3.07 -38% Givens 3.98 2.93 -36% Beckham 509 734 -31% Cashner 4.98 3.89 -28% Schoop 609 740 -18% Joseph 527 629 -16% Mancini 669 791 -15% Peterson 550 643 -14% Gentry 575 665 -14% Sisco 670 751 -11% Gausman 4.58 4.22 -9% Wright 6.46 5.97 -8% Trumbo 721 761 -5% Santander 547 565 -3% Alvarez 736 759 -3% Bleier 2.03 1.99 -2% Jones 763 778 -2% Bundy 4.04 4.11 2% Rickard 682 661 3% Scott 4.96 5.5 10% Valencia 832 748 11% Machado 975 817 19% Castro 2.84 3.95 28% Hart 1.59 2.66 40% The 23 players doing worse than their career numbers did so at a collective -656%, averaging -29% with their 2018 production. The 7 players doing better than their career numbers did so at a collective +114%, averaging +16% for this season. I'm no statistician, but how improbable is it that so much decline can be so widespread on one team? Maybe the "bad morale" theory makes the most sense, after all.
  4. now

    Facing the Blue Jays

    This just in from a friend of mine who's a Jays fan:
  5. now

    Machado Trade Expectations

    These sound like good answers on the surface, and reports on the market (Rosenthal) support the lower price theory. But I wonder... 1. Aren't a few teams every year desperately hungry for that last piece to put them over the top? (Case in point, O's giving up Davies for Parra, or ERod for Miller). Or are you saying the Cubs' century long drought makes them unique? 2. Can't every team "use" a dominant hitter like Machado as much as a dominant reliever like Chapman? Plug him in at SS or 3B and move someone else to DH or another position... just like nudging a previous closer or bullpen guy down a notch?
  6. I just brought this up in another thread, and what I still don't get and hope someone can address, is why? Why not a Chapman type of return? Because a dominant closer is more valuable in the playoffs? Because of Theo's generosity or MFY juju? Because everyone wants to screw the O's and/or avoid dealing them? That latter aside, it should come down to value, bottom line. Edit: I see Can_of_corn has addressed this in the Machado Trade Expectations thread. Thx Cc.
  7. now

    Can our current rotation do better?

    That's true, too. So the same question could apply to bullpens. Look at Chapman -- a closer whose rental brought no doubt more than what Machado will bring for the same rental period. Which seems preposterous, but there it is... and he did bring the ring.
  8. now

    Can our current rotation do better?

    While these are valid points, the equation changes when you enter playoffs territory (i.e., more importance given to aces) -- especially with more days off so you can get by with 3-4 starters instead of 4-5. For that matter, the in-season equation also favors the "aces" since they pitch more often and so log more innings compared to the lesser talents. So a straight-up comparison of ERAs doesn't fully account for the difference in value and impact.
  9. now

    Can our current rotation do better?

    This is a good question, which I've been wondering about in terms of draft strategy -- the high-ceiling, high-risk approach vs. the safe approach. We know Cobb and Cashner are what they are (track record). Though our hopes may remain orange-colored when it comes to Bundy and Gausman, I'm afraid we'll have to settle for "they are what they are" - i.e., slot 3-5 rotation pieces, not aces. Do the Orioles need an ace or two to win big? I guess the current model would propose not: just go with a middling but stable rotation and complement it with offense, defense and a strong bullpen (in theory! -- and recent practice). I'm about ready to put my hopes instead on the other strategy: try to land some true, if raw, ace material. In other words, I would put any of "our guys" on the trading block and try to secure some high-end prospects. Say a Gausman nets a AAA, AA and A haul, all with high risks but higher ceiling. Combine with our young arms in the low minors and maybe we'll finally wind up with a bona fide ace or two in a couple of years. Otherwise, it's just more treading water.
  10. now

    What kind of team would you build?

    True dat (unfortunately). And with Buck still at the helm, one wonders how that could happen. Maybe fundamentals are more of a tool than a skill, after all?
  11. now

    What kind of team would you build?

    Good stuff. Now seriously, how cool would it be to have an app where you just plug in the various basic stats and it would spit out OPS, WAR, and $value!!!
  12. now

    What kind of team would you build?

    Hmm, my take would be the opposite of this. Seems to me the Orioles of the Showalter era have been largely successful on fundamentals, making up for a shortfall in pure talent compared to other clubs; with the poster boy being J.J. Hardy, or, on the pitching side, say, Darren O'Day.
  13. now

    What kind of team would you build?

    Where's our handy WAR conversion tool to actually compare the value of these two players?
  14. now

    What kind of team would you build?

    Pitching vs. hitting? ... It all starts - and ends - with pitching. Offense vs. defense? ... A matter of degree of course; but offense has more impact Power vs. speed/OBP? ... Power the best weapon agst. superior pitching. Rotation vs. bullpen? ... Strong rotation saves the bullpen. Raw talent vs. fundamental soundness? ... Start with tools, teach fundamentals.