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Three Run Homer

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About Three Run Homer

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  1. O's interested in Tyler Chatwood

    Much more interested in Chatwood than in Vargas or Cashner.
  2. Should the Orioles sign Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas?

    Cashner and Vargas would be the kind of pitchers you would target if you had never heard of FIP. They would both probably have about a 5 ERA pitching for a full season in OPACY. Better than Chris Tillman or Ubaldo Jimenez, but not good enough to contend if they are your third and fourth starters. The O's need to stop targeting bargain basement starting pitchers that nobody else wants. They need to identify good pitchers and be willing to outbid other teams for them.
  3. Dan Connolly: Orioles Must Be Willing To Make A Trade

    I would strongly consider trading Trey Mancini. He will be cost-controlled for several seasons, and he established himself as a good major league hitter this season, which should boost his value. But defensively he is limited to LF/1B/DH, and the one thing the Orioles have an abundance of in their farm system is good hitting prospects who are likely to end up at DH or corner outfield.
  4. Chris Tillman Needs To Get Right

    If he is given a guaranteed contract and a spot in the starting rotation, the downside risk is that (1) he pitches terribly for 10-15 starts before Buck finally pulls the plug--and Buck's tendency is to give veterans a long leash; (2) the team will consider one if its rotation spots filled and will sign one less alternative free agent starter than it otherwise will, leaving only internal options like Ynoa as alternatives if Tillman doesn't get it back together. The subsequent track record of pitchers who are as bad as Tillman was in 2017 is not great. Just for fun (?) I searched Baseball Reference for the highest ERAs and the lowest ERA+ of pitchers who had 19 or more starts in a single season. Tillman's 2017 season tops both lists. Looking at the top 20, very few of them returned to being effective starters in the next season. Andy Benes (awful in 2001) and David Cone (awful in 2000) both bounced back and had one more good year before retiring. Edinson Volquez is the most hopeful case; he was terrible in 2013 but has had a few effective seasons since. The rest of the list was full of pitchers who retired, went to the bullpen, or who struggled for one or more additional seasons before retiring or returning to effectiveness. The list suggests that Tillman's chance of being an effective starter next season is somewhere in the range of 10-20 percent.
  5. 2017 Week 6: Ravens vs. Bears

    To some extent all NFL teams do this, but the Ravens definitely have games where they go vanilla on both offense and defense, in order to limit the amount of film that future opponents can analyze. I think they get more creative when they are facing better opponents and divisional opponents, but against teams like the Bears that they are supposed to beat, they figure they can get away with vanilla and not show too much. Today they didn't get away with it.
  6. 2017 Week 5: Ravens @ Raiders

    The O-Line will have to get better in a hurry for the Ravens to have a chance. Khalil Mack must be licking his chops.
  7. No help for the OL?

    As of a couple of weeks their cap room was estimated at $4 million, after several contracts were restructured. John Greco was supposed to make about $3 million this season before being cut. I'd be surprised if he's making more than $2 million for New Orleans; terms haven't yet been disclosed. The thing is, they've known about Alex Lewis' injury since August 11. At that point, James Hurst became the starting left guard. Ozzie has had plenty of time (and should have had plenty of motivation) to sign or trade for someone better. Yanda's injury made matters much worse, but having Hurst as a starting guard and having no quality OL depth going into the season was bad enough.
  8. No help for the OL?

    And the Saints just signed Joe Greco, who started at Guard and was effective last year for the Browns. He was cut by the Browns because of salary concerns, not ability concerns. Why didn't the Ravens pursue him?
  9. Reasons the O's struggled

    I think all of these were bad decisions, but I don't think any of them made much of a difference to the outcome of the O's season. They had a bad year because their starting pitching was horrifically bad, because they didn't have plausible solutions in the high minors, and because they were (rightly) unwilling to part with top prospects to get solutions from outside the organization. The O's wouldn't have made the playoffs if they had put Gabriel Ynoa in the rotation on July 1.
  10. I agree with this assessment. I think Sisco should be on the team on opening day 2018 as a backup to Caleb Joseph, and Santander should get plenty of chances in RF/DH at the start of the season to prove that he should stick all year. I think Hays has a lot of promise but he needs to work on hitting breaking and offspeed pitches, and should start the season at Norfolk (along with Mullins). If he succeeds there while Santander struggles in the majors, they could change places once Santander has put in his 45 days. I still think the O's should try to trade Trumbo this offseason, but I'm not as opposed as I once was to signing someone like Seth Smith to a one-year contract, especially if the O's are going all in next season for one last try at a championship while Manny is still wearing Orange and Black.
  11. No help for the OL?

    PFF's rankings confirm what anyone with eyes can see: poor guard play is killing this team. Hurst, Skura, Eleumenor, Bergstrom--all are at replacement level or worse. If you have poor OL play, there is no way to sustain a consistent running attack. If you have poor OL play and an immobile quarterback, then you will have lots of sacks and no chance to throw the ball deep. The Ravens offense is the worst in the NFL, and not all of that is on the OL, but a lot of it is. I don't understand why there doesn't seem to be any urgency on the part of the front office to do something about this situation. They've created some cap space in recent weeks--why not sign Branden Albert, or sign Eric Mangold and move Jensen to guard? Why not find an 0-4 team with a decent guard and offer a 3rd or 4th round pick? This season is going down the tubes fast, and without an upgrade at G I don't see how the team can contend. I also don't understand why there doesn't seem to be any urgency on the part of the local media to focus on the need to upgrade the OL. Has everyone just given up on the season already?
  12. Davis Talks Offseason After Frustrating Year (mlb.com)

    Just. Go. The. Other. Way.
  13. Adam on the Buck/Dan relationship

    I'm guessing that right now the number one point of contention is what to do about Tillman. My guess is that Dan wanted to cut Tillman loose months ago and wants no part of him for next season, while Buck insisted on sticking by him and wants him back.
  14. Lets go get swept at the Trop!

    As long as Hays, Santander, Mancini and Cisco are in the lineup I don't care much about the outcome of these games. I do admit that I have a sick fascination about the possibility of Tillman getting another start. I think he is currently tied with Les Sweetland (1931 Phillies) for the highest ERA of any starter since 1900 with 19 or more starts in a season.
  15. The outfield defense by the numbers, 2014-17

    Would we be better off with Hays in CF and Adam in RF than the reverse?