Jump to content

DrungoHazewood

Plus Member
  • Content Count

    23,248
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

DrungoHazewood last won the day on February 13

DrungoHazewood had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

2,182 Hall of Famer

1 Follower

About DrungoHazewood

  • Rank
    Hangout Contributor
  • Birthday 6/19/1971

Personal Information

  • Location
    SoMd
  • Homepage
    http://
  • Interests
    Nate, Sam, Baseball, Soccer, Virginia Tech sports, Hiking, Cooking, Photography, Mad treks to the far corners of the globe
  • Occupation
    Electronics Engineer/Program Manager
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Manny Machado
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Doug DeCinces

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. DrungoHazewood

    Emerging from the Stone Age

    I don't agree with that. I mean, I'm sure they could do a better job. But marketing of something like baseball is tough because it's been around forever. Everyone knows about baseball, and just about everyone decided whether or not they're a fan by the time they're 10. You can't market baseball to a 27-year-old basketball fan any more than you can convince that same person Cadillac or Led Zeppelin or Harleys are cool. But I do think baseball has some structural problems, most notably pace and lack of in-game action, that fixing would help sell the game to some extent.
  2. DrungoHazewood

    Emerging from the Stone Age

    I think you leave the ball alone, and just make the bats a bit larger and heavier each season for a while. You'll eventually get to the point where most players can't take the approach they do now with max bat speed to loft/drive everything. I'd also think about moving the mound back 6" or a foot a year for a while, too. Perhaps also limit throws to first to incentivize stolen bases. In a perfect world I'd make a rule that every park has to have at least one 450' sign, although that's probably an impossibility in many or most modern stadiums. My hope is that after maybe five years you'd get more players who hit to all fields, and emphasize contact and on-base skills over pulling everything into the seats and striking out 30% of the time.
  3. DrungoHazewood

    Anyone Following Manny? (Signs with San Diego)

    Put 1000 monkeys in a room. Target on a wall. Each monkey has a handful of poo. When they start throwing one of the monkeys will eventually hit the target. The guys who "beat" the market grab the monkey who hit the target and tell everyone who'll listen that they trained the world's most accurate monkey. That'll sell a lot of books and tickets to lectures on how to pick monkeys.
  4. DrungoHazewood

    Anyone Following Manny? (Signs with San Diego)

    Question: What is the average value per unit production of MLB contracts signed in free agency? Rationale: I would like to know a baseline for how much teams, on average, are paying on the MLB free agent market. Then we can determine if the market is linear, non-linear, if the model breaks down at the low or high ends, how well teams do in estimating future value, and which teams are better or worse than average. Answer: Take the total value of all contracts over some period of time and divide by their estimated value. WAR is a convienent way to estimate value. In 2018-19 you'll end up with about $8M per win, and overall it seems mostly linear across the ranges of contracts. atomic: Idiots. You're all simplistic morons. I read "atomic" but my brain just says "Vizzini".
  5. DrungoHazewood

    TT: Mullins: Starter of Future 4th Outfielder?

    Ah, okay, I wrongly assumed that you were saying he just wasn't that good.
  6. DrungoHazewood

    Emerging from the Stone Age

    It's not the analytics fault that the game has evolved into three true outcomes. There are processes to change the rules and the environment when the game starts to deviate from an engaging product, it's just not really used. When information and analysis says un-entertaning strategies are successful it's up to the powers-that-be to tweak things to make it more interesting.
  7. DrungoHazewood

    TT: Mullins: Starter of Future 4th Outfielder?

    I don't know that there's much precedence for a good defender becoming elite as he ages. Generally defense peaks early. He is currently as fast as he'll ever be, and it's unlikely knowledge and positioning will get so much better that it'll completely overcome his inevitable decline in range due to age. I also have serious doubts that he'll suddenly learn how to hit right-handed. His vLH splits his four years as a professional are .549, .632, .604, .645. If those were his overall numbers he would have been released. His vRH splits have been more like .800. A normal platoon split is something like 75 points of OPS. If I were the Orioles I'd have him give up switch hitting yesterday and we'll probably see his overall OPS go up 30 or 40 points.
  8. DrungoHazewood

    Anyone Following Manny? (Signs with San Diego)

    What I'm taking away from this is that you believe that the entire free agent market is irrational, and not based on estimates of future value. I'm assuming that since you don't believe that teams estimate future value they're getting their initial bids from who... the player agents? Or do they just pick the numbers out of the air? My guess is that teams use an established value in a WAR-like production metric and combine that with historical aging patterns to predict future value. But we often end up with very optimistic valuations that aren't met in practice because the team that is most optimistic in their assessment wins the bidding.
  9. DrungoHazewood

    Anyone Following Manny? (Signs with San Diego)

    They're quite clearly paid by expected value, and if teams aren't using WAR then WAR is an excellent proxy for what teams actually use. Your argument is that you don't like WAR because it's accurate and it's commonly used and you can't stand those type of things, so you pretend that it's not used.
  10. DrungoHazewood

    Harper to Phillies reported

    Obviously I'm no pro athlete, but I've had two knee surgeries around 20 years ago. They get better at the surgery all the time, so I'm guessing mine was relatively primitive. I'm now 47 and my knees give me essentially no problems at all. I never even think about my knees being surgically repaired until something like this reminds me or I notice the scars.
  11. DrungoHazewood

    Orioles Sign Alicides Escobar to MiL Deal

    I'm sure his agent was trying to convince everyone that 142 PAs against September callups is way more important than the .621 OPS he's put up the last four years and 2500 PAs.
  12. DrungoHazewood

    Orioles Sign Alicides Escobar to MiL Deal

    He looks like the 2019 version of 2009 Cesar Izturis. Just without the glove. He's the 3rd-string fallback plan if all the Rule 5ers tank.
  13. DrungoHazewood

    Harper to Phillies reported

    As someone who's had two ACL reconstructions I'd bet on Manny's knees before I bet on Harper's tendency to cough up a .240/1.5-win season every other year. Manny's played 100 more games than Harper since the start of 2013.
  14. DrungoHazewood

    MLB and Union talk major rule changes

    It's funny. I know a lot of baseball fans, and a lot of soccer fans. The soccer fans will sometimes remark that baseball is the most boring of all the sports, and they don't understand how anyone wants to watch nine guys standing around all night waiting for some big dude to hit a homer or strike out. The baseball fans are often like you, incredulous that billions of people watch so many 2-1 matches. I think we need some kind of fan exchange program, because both sports are pretty awesome most of the time.
  15. DrungoHazewood

    MLB and Union talk major rule changes

    What's the comparable list for baseball? US, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, various Caribbean nations, Australia, the Dutch. Italy. Some Central American countries that supply players but don't really have domestic leagues, except maybe in the winter. Much of the Caribbean falls into that category, too. There are other countries with leagues, but (for example) I'd guess the Baseball Bundesliga in Germany is on par with the NY-Penn League or the Appy League, just with older players. Cricket might actually be played at a reasonably high level in more places.
×