Jump to content

Frobby

Plus Member
  • Content Count

    44,616
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    281

Frobby last won the day on November 15

Frobby had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

7,149 Supreme Hangout Council Member

5 Followers

About Frobby

Personal Information

  • Location
    Bethesda MD
  • Homepage
    http://
  • Interests
    Besides this one? Breathing, I guess.
  • Occupation
    Lawyer
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Not sure I have one right now
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Frank Robinson (duh)

Recent Profile Visitors

10,603 profile views
  1. Frobby

    How long does your blank check for Elias last?

    Our outfield defense was pretty good in 2014 — +17.7 UZR. The Royals, on the other hand, were unbelievably good — +42.4 UZR. And they played great in that series.
  2. Frobby

    ATTN: 2 P.M. AMA (Ask Mike Anything)

    His hair should be white as snow after a year as GM of the Orioles.
  3. Frobby

    How long does your blank check for Elias last?

    I think people don’t give that Royals team enough credit. They finished that season 41-23 (.640), then won the WC game, swept the Angels, swept the Orioles and lost a hard fought World Series in 7 games. Then they turned right around and won 95 games and the World Series the following season. It was a very good team that was coming into its own the last couple of months of 2014. Great outfield defense, great bullpen, great team speed.
  4. I had to edit my post (see above). 3 Oriole players were selected after 2009. However, only one (Pedro Beato in 2010) actually stayed in the majors for the season.
  5. I find it nearly impossible to believe that another major league team will select an unprotected Orioles player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Our system simply isn’t that deep. The last Oriole I recall being selected was Steve Johnson in 2009, and he was returned halfway through spring training. Edit — since then, Pat Egan and Pedro Beato we’re drafted in 2010, and Ji-Man Choi was drafted in 2015. Egan was returned. I believe Choi was offered back and we declined.
  6. Frobby

    How long does your blank check for Elias last?

    It certainly won’t happen overnight. I’ve seen rankings of our system that are near the middle, and others that are near the bottom. Maybe we could be top 10 in 2020 if a lot of things broke our way, but I tend to agree 2021 is more realistic. (I am talking about the beginning of the 2021 season, just to be sure we’re on the same page about what 2021 means).
  7. Frobby

    Reminder - Elias Presser Today at 11 am

    I think you’re inferring too much from 2018. This happened to be a low year for the Astros in stolen bases (71). The previous 3 years they stole 121, 102 and 98. I doubt they suddenly decided stolen bases were no good. Probably personnel changes and/or injuries led to lower totals. And, Altuve stopped running as often. The Astros have a well-rounded offense that is not overly reliant on any one thing.
  8. Frobby

    Adrian Beltre retires

    Wow, I hadn’t expected that. Beltre was still a productive player to the end (2.2 rWAR in 2018). Kudos to him for quitting while he was still ahead, that’s a rare thing these days. He should be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
  9. Frobby

    47 Players topping 100+ million dollar contract

    Time for the post-2018 update on the contracts in excess of $100 mm. There are now 71 such deals, by my count. Names in red are players I moved into a different category from where I had them last year. Definite Disasters: ARod II, $275 mm, 23.4 WAR (note: Yankees didn’t have to pay his 2014 salary, so it’s really $250 mm) Pujols: $254 mm, 13.3 WAR (3 years remaining) Fielder, $214 mm, 7.0 WAR Mauer $184 mm, 21.9 WAR Teixeira $180 mm, 20.6 WAR Davis $161 mm, 0.4 WAR (4 years remaining) Kemp, $160 mm, 5.1 WAR (1 year remaining) A. Gonzalez $154 mm, 15.7 WAR Ellsbury $153 mm, 9.7 WAR (2 years remaining) Crawford $142 mm, 3.4 WAR Cain $140 mm, 10.7 WAR Wright $138 mm, 8.9 WAR Santana $138 mm, 15.2 WAR Soriano $126 mm, 7.9 WAR Zito $126 mm, 3.0 WAR Wells $126 mm, 6.9 WAR Werth $126 mm, 8.9 WAR Howard $125 mm, -4.5 WAR Hamilton $125 mm, 3.4 WAR Hampton $121 mm, 4.3 WAR Griffey $116.5 mm, 13.3 WAR Zimmermann $110 mm, 1.4 WAR (2 years remaining) Reyes $106 mm 8.8 WAR Bailey $105 mm, -1.2 WAR (1 year remaining) Carlos Lee $100 mm 8.7 WAR Zimmerman $100 mm, 4.0 WAR (1 year remaining) Likely to suck, at this point: Cabrera II 8 years, $248 mm (3 years, 4.5 WAR so far) Choo 7 years, $130 mm (5 years, 7.5 WAR so far) Trending good at this point: Kershaw 7 years, $215 mm (incl. one arb. year) (5 years, 29.1 WAR so far)(now extended) Cano 10 years, $240 mm (5 years, 23.6 WAR so far) Votto 10 years, $225 mm (5 years, 24.5 WAR so far) Posey 9 years (incl. 3 pre-FA years), $164 mm (6 years, 28.6 WAR so far) Freeman 8 years (incl. 3 pre-FA years), $135 mm (5 years, 23.6 WAR so far) Too soon to tell: Hernandez 7 years $175 mm (6 years, 17.1 WAR so far) Tulowitizki 6 years, $118 mm (4 years, 6.2 WAR so far) Greinke II 6 years, $206.5 mm (3 years, 12.5 WAR so far) Andrus 8 years, $118 mm (4 years, 12.3 WAR so far) Braun 5 years, $105 mm (3 years, 6.7 WAR so far) Heyward 8 years, $184 mm (3 years, 5.2 WAR so far) Stanton 13 years (including 2 pre-FA years), $325 mm (4 years, 17.9 WAR so far) Lester 6 years, $155 mm (4 years, 12.4 WAR so far) Price 7 years, $217 mm (3 years, 9.0 WAR so far) Tanaka 7 years, $155 mm (5 years, 15.6 WAR so far) Upton I 6 years, $132.8 mm (3 years, 11.3 WAR so far)(deal has been restructured) Cueto 6 years, $130 mm (3 years, 8.6 WAR so far) Seager 7 years (incl. 3 pre-FA years) (4 years, 14.6 WAR so far) Cespedes 4 years, $110 mm (2 years, 3.0 WAR so far) Strasburg 7 years, $175 mm (2 years, 8.9 WAR so far) Longoria 6 years, $100 mm (2 years, 5.4 WAR so far) Altuve 7 years, $163.5 mm (1 year, 5.2 WAR so far) Hosmer 8 years, $144 mm (1 year, 1.4 WAR so far) Darvish 6 years, $126 mm (1 year, -0.2 WAR so far) JD Martinez 5 years, $110 mm (1 year, 6.4 WAR so far) Blackmon 6 years, $108 mm (1 year, 0.8 WAR so far) Good: ARod I ($252 mm, 71.4 WAR), Jeter ($189 mm, 41.2 WAR), Ramirez ($160 mm, 36.6 WAR), Cabrera I ($152 mm, 46.5 WAR), Holliday ($120 mm, 20.8 WAR), Beltran ($119 mm, 32.2 WAR), Helton ($142 mm, 32.9 WAR), Pujols I ($100 mm, 60.5 WAR), Greinke I (opted out after $70 mm, 17.5 WAR), Hamels ($173 mm, 31.0 WAR with one year remaining), Verlander $180 mm (27.4 WAR so far with one year remaining), Scherzer ($210 mm, 29.0 WAR with three years remaining), Trout ($144 mm, 36.6 WAR with 2 years remaining) Slightly disappointing: Giambi ($120 mm, 22.0 WAR), Cliff Lee ($109 mm, 21.1 WAR), Brown ($105 mm, 22.9 WAR), Sabathia ($161 mm, 22.5 WAR on original deal; $50 mm, 6.8 WAR on extension) So, as of 2018 I count 13 good contracts, 5 trending good, 26 disasters, 2 likely to suck, 4 slight disappointments, and 21 deals where it's too early to tell. There are a few in the "too early to tell" category that could have gone in the "likely to suck" category (e.g., Hernandez, Tulowitzki, Cespedes), but I decided to leave them be. As before, you have to consider what the market rates were when the player was signed.
  10. Frobby

    Reminder - Elias Presser Today at 11 am

    The last time Davis struck out less than 170 times was 2012, when he struck out 169 times in 139 games. Honestly if he hits .250, I don’t care how many times he strikes out. That would be miraculous.
  11. Frobby

    Matthias Dietz - RHP - 2018 #30 Prospect

    😵😵😵 Sorry, I just don’t see it.
  12. Frobby

    Who are the #21-25 Prospects?

    True enough.
  13. Frobby

    Who are the #21-25 Prospects?

    How long are you going to keep us in suspense?
  14. Frobby

    How long does your blank check for Elias last?

    No, I take it back, there was consideration of rest and rehab. http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-after-partial-tear-of-ligament-in-right-knee-manny-machado-opted-for-seasonending-surgery-20140823-story.html
  15. Orioles (picked 4, 22, --, 25, 27, 21, 11): Gausman 11.3 rWAR Hader 4.0 Mancini 2.5 Hart 1.5 Hess 0.8 Stewart 0.5 Wynns 0.3 Yacobonis 0.3 Sisco 0.2 Tarpley 0.2 9 players with negative WAR Astros (picked 1,1,1, 2 & 5, 17, 15, 28): Correa 18.3 Bregman 12.7 McCullers 6.2 Phillips 2.4 Laurean 2.1 T. White 1.7 Mengden 1.7 James 0.7 Fisher 0.5 Straw 0.2 Kemp 0.2 Nottingham 0.1 11 players with zero or negative WAR No question the Astros have outdone us, but given where they were drafting, they should have. All things considered, I was surprised they haven't outdone us by more.
×