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Frobby

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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. I think it’s pretty well documented that the Astros are using fewer scouts and relying on sophisticated video and other equipment a lot more.
  2. Yes, fantastic book. I loved everything Steinbeck wrote, but especially (in addition to East of Eden) The Grapes of Wrath and Of Mice and Men. He’s my all-time favorite author. Of course, it’s been more than 30 years (40+ in some cases) since I read those books.
  3. I didn’t say that. I don’t want him on the 40 man roster until he’s ready to enter the rotation full time, hopefully sometime next year.
  4. Frobby

    Zac Lowther

    I don’t know why they choose this team before the season ends. To me a choice between Lowther and Wells is really close and wouldn’t have wanted to make the call until the season was over completely.
  5. https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/08/orioles-replacing-more-holdovers-from-previous-front-office.html
  6. And why is Jon Heyman getting this information ahead of our crack team of local beat reporters? At least Roch knows how to use the retweet button.
  7. I will not enjoy Ty Blach. But I’m willing to suffer through whatever horrible placeholders they throw out there if it means that our prospects are developed properly before they reach the majors, rather than just throwing them out there.
  8. Kind’ve sorry to hear about Dean Albany. Local guy and someone who gave Tony good information on our prospects at times. I was a little surprised Tripp Norton survived the original purge, and so therefore I’m surprised that, having survived that, he’s being let go now. Good luck to them, and Nate Showalter.
  9. Yeah, I know people like your manager. But I’m definitely not that way. I traveled a ton when my kids were small, and while I enjoyed many of the trips themselves, I really hated being away from my family so much. Plus, I used up all my political capital with my wife. It’s not like I could be on the road two weeks, come home and then say, “I’m going out to play poker with my buddies!” No sir.
  10. I am not crying for these major league players, and honestly I think it’s unlikely Davis will walk away from any of his money. But there’s one thing that sucks about being a major league player if you are family-oriented, and that’s being away from your family 80-90 days a year at least. And if a guy has $100 mm banked, and is traveling around and going through the motions of playing while sitting on the bench, knowing all the while he’s hurting his own team, there’s at least (as Drungo said) a non-zero chance that he might decide it’s not worth it and he’d rather be home with his family. And yes, I know there are lots of people who spend 80-90+ days a year away from home, and even longer. I did it myself for many years, on the road for my various clients. To say nothing of guys like Tony who spent years overseas serving their country. But we didn’t have $100 mm sitting in the bank.
  11. Realistically, he is not a serious candidate to be in our rotation next March. He’s barely pitched in AAA, and his results haven’t been great. Therefore, there’s no reason to add him to the 40-man roster when he doesn’t need to be on it this winter. I might feel differently if he was closer to being ready, but he’s not yet.
  12. I was right about the pitcher, anyway. Otherwise, I was a full turn in the rotation too late.
  13. You are broadly correct, though Santander played plenty of LF in the minors and Stewart played plenty of RF. My guess is that Hyde’s just evaluating both of them at both positions, rather than trying to align them ideally right now.
  14. I agree with this. It really boils down to how well and how quickly our prospects are developing. If they are making big strides, then investing in some significant free agents by 2022 will make sense. If they are either floundering or just moving up more slowly than hoped, it may be premature to spend a lot in the FA market. We’ll just have to see. I think we’ll know a lot more about the players you mentioned at this time next year. I think 2020 will be fascinating from a developmental perspective.
  15. Not does he really deserve one yet.
  16. My understanding was that Davis did not put in his paperwork for the 2014 season and that’s why he didn’t get the exemption for that year. But also, due to abuse, MLB may have been getting stricter about the criteria for adderall exemptions. In 2015 he was given an exemption for Vyvanse, which is another ADHD treatment but doesn’t have some of the same performance enhancing benefits as adderall. Certainly the Vyvanse was good enough for Davis in 2015, when he had a great season that led to his monster contract.
  17. I don’t think we have anything to worry about there. The MASN agreement states two things very clearly: 1. Rights fees for the Nats and O’s have to be equal. 2. The O’s will always own at least 67% of MASN (their ownership drops by 1% per year until it reaches 67%). No arbitrator or Judge is going to ignore that. Also, while the total dollar amount of the new arbitration award is very similar to the previous award, the methodology for getting there is slightly different and more favorable for MASN/the Orioles going forward. In the first award, the rights fees were increasing substantially every year; in the second, they were increasing much more slowly. So, that second trend line favors MASN and the O’s in the years beyond 2016 that haven’t been decided yet.
  18. I’m aware of the Chevron case; in fact, I was involved in it indirectly for a period of time. No, they can’t do anything further in the lower court. Their best shot is going to be in the New York Court of Appeal. Remember, the intermediate appellate court was split 3-2 on the question of whether the second arbitration should have gone to a non-RSDC panel. The NY Court of Appeal declined to hear that issue for procedural reasons, but will be able to take up that issue when the matter comes before them this time. Since it was a close call on that issue in the Appellate Division, it’s conceivable that the Court of Appeal could go the other way. But I doubt it, and I really doubt any of the other grounds are going to work. One thing the O’s and MASN have to think about now is the 9% interest that’s accruing. Let’s say they drag this out for another two years — that would mean owing an extra $20 mm or so in interest, at a time when market interest rates are running way lower than 9%. Up to the second arbitration award, no interest was accruing, so all the delay was working in their favor. Now it’s not, and they’ll need to think hard about whether the cost of the appeal (in terms of accruing interest) is worth the somewhat unlikely chance of overturning the award.
  19. Unfortunately, it’s three years, not two.
  20. Zero chance that the US Supreme Court will hear this case. Slight chance that MASN/the Orioles would ask the Supreme Court to hear the case once the NY appeals are over, just because they're ridiculously pugnacious. But the Supreme Court would never take the case. For those who would like to read Justice Cohen's 27-page opinion, here it is: https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewDocument?docIndex=3qoObmdzSa_PLUS_vVExf1Q1mjg== The most notable part of the opinion is the introduction: The court rejected various arguments that the proceeding was biased, finding them to be a rehash of arguments that Justice Marks had rejected in the original court decision. The court also found that "[t]he 48-page [new RSDC] decision is extraordinarily detailed and thorough." As to the issue that has been referred to the Special Referee Clerk, I was right that this just relates to interest due on the award. The interest only begins to run from the date the arbitration award was made (April 15, 2019), so it isn't a huge sum, although New York statutory interest runs at the high rate of 9%. The interest accrued right now is probably in the ballpark of $3 mm. Interest will continue to accrue during the time elapsed as MASN/the Orioles appeal the ruling.
  21. Seems like an unsupported exaggeration. Putting aside what he said about the 2017-18 offseason, what are the other of the “several years in a row” in which he lied about his offseason workouts? What did he say, what about it was false, and what’s your proof of its’ falsity? The guy is a lousy baseball player. That’s as far as I’ll take it.
  22. I’m not at all surprised by this result, and would have been surprised if it came out otherwise. I’ll have to read the ruling tomorrow because I don’t understand the part about a judicial hearing officer determining “additional local rights fees.” They must mean interest on the award or something like that. Don’t forget there are two levels of appeal after this. So it’s not over. The Appellate Division was divided the last time on the question of whether the arbitration had to be taken away from the RSDC due to appearance of bias, and the Court of Appeal (the highest court in NY) did not hear the further appeal on that issue because it didn’t consider the case ripe for appeal to that court until the second arbitration and further appeals played out. I do not think (and have never thought) that MASN and the O’s will prevail in overturning the arbitration. But always remember, the O’s didn’t “lose” the arbitration. The panel gave a Solomonic award that was about $45-50 mm/year less than what the Nats argued they were due.
  23. Frobby

    Zac Lowther

    Excellent outing from Lowther today: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 K’s and picked up his 13th win. He should have two starts left this season.
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