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About OrioleDog

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    Plus Member since 12/05
  • Birthday 2/5/1973

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    Arlington, VA
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  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Eddie Murray

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  1. OrioleDog

    When will the O's return to the playoffs?

    It's several years of course, but a first step is when might we be better than the Red Sox? I think the Yankees have a deep enough farm they're likely to remain ahead indefinitely, but today's Dombrowski juggernaut has a shelf life. I look at 2021 for that. They've only got 1 more option on Sale's 2019. That does dovetail with Porcello's $21 per year running out, but if they want to buy Sale free agent seasons starting in 2020, that Price price point of 32M/year for 2020-2022 is going to be the same kind of pain our Davis benchmark was with Machado. This leaves aside Bogaerts being FA the same time as Sale, and the Red Sox not having a SS prospect of any great renown currently. And that's with the backdrop of Mookie coming up one year later. If the 2021 Sox have Sale and Mookie, it's going to cost over $100M for those two and Price. Devers has scuffled - he's their best bet to join Benintendi as a 1-2 club control punch early next decade, but if he fizzles a bit, Benintendi might be the only young stud they have a few years out. I'll look to Father Time to slow JDM down by then.
  2. OrioleDog

    15 days in, fun summer or not?

    Speaking of Cobb and things involving 20's, in the last quarter of the season, we'll get a mini-drama if he can pitch himself away from 20 losses. He gets a break Saturday in Cleveland matching up with Plutko instead of one of their aces as Q4 gets underway. Mike Maroth of the 2003 Tigers is the only one since 1980. It'll be tough for the club to give Cobb a break given how many innings are already going to AAAA guys. The next few matchups, presuming every 5th game sticks for a bit: O's game 123 at Cleveland (series game 2 of 3) 128 vs. NYY (series game 1 of 4) 134 vs. TOR (series game 3 of 3; 6-game seasonal skip due to doubleheader 8/25) 139 at Seattle (series game 2 of 3) 144 vs Oakland (series game 1 of 3) He'll then get a breather against the White Sox at home before presumably pitching twice in the final 10-games gauntlet of Yankees/Red Sox/Astros. Most of the year I've thought the Astros would be playing their AAA team that final weekend, but now maybe not so much.
  3. OrioleDog

    Should the Orioles use an opener?

    Kiley McDaniel with a long piece on the Rays use of this concept, and profiles of the kinds of "flawed" prospects for whom being a middle-distance pitcher might fit. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-prospects-who-could-pull-a-glasnow/ My biggest takeaways - the bit about most of the org's pitchers not being currently good enough to go 6 every 5th day certainly applies to the near term Orioles too - we won't even have Blake Snell. I remember Earl resisting a 5-man rotation because it was hard enough to find 4 good ones. I think in the coming years by allocating more innings to middle-distance pitchers, teams are also going to have the opportunity to effectively get back to 4-man rotations. I don't think I'll get to see it but if he's still an Oriole in 2020, I'm interested to see how effective 32-year old Alex Cobb could be pitching 40 X 4 innings after whoever out of Carroll, Pop, etc becomes good takes care of the top of opponent's lineup first time through.
  4. OrioleDog

    2018 Washington Nationals

    I guess maybe we're still in contention for the MASN Cup. If not for Soto, maybe Mullins has an opening for a winning charge, but Soto...yeah, no.
  5. Now, will the MLB payroll savings be reallocated as new outlays for analysts, coaches and scouts? That would be reasonable, maybe even exciting. I believe 2 win players and up aren't manufacturable, but even the best teams aren't going to have more than 12-13 of them. The space between replacement level and 1-win is a lot more nebulous territory, and one where my gut feeling is the Orioles intellectual capital is well behind many other teams.
  6. OrioleDog

    Dodgers Activating Bullpen Mode

    My crazy Kershaw move would be to try and get him twice through the order anytime the number of the game in a playoff series is odd.
  7. OrioleDog

    Dodgers Activating Bullpen Mode

    Orienting towards October, Dodgers today announced Stripling and Maeda going to pen. I think, old school wise, those guys probably deserve SP slots more than Wood and Ryu, who they are moving aside for. But I think except for the Kershaws of the world, as the best teams try to be their very best in the tournament, this is how they organize their talent. It'll be an interesting watch over the next few years to see if orgs can sustain the October sprint bump usage pattern all year long by having lots of talented optionable pitchers (or pitchers whose minor 10-day injures recur with clockwork precision). My guess as to whether Buck Showalter will ever manage a staff in this manner at any point is no.
  8. OrioleDog

    Grayson Rodriguez 2018

    A little Rodriguez-Bundy tale of the tape, as I guess that'll be the breathless hope if he makes Delmarva next spring. Bundy by April 2012 was 19 years, 5 months; Rodriguez next April will be ... 19 years, 5 months. In this exercise, I have learned Bundy's birthday is 11/15 and Rodriguez's 11/16 - talk about comps! So next spring all Grayson needs to do is carry a 0.00 ERA for 30 innings in the Sally and make the Orioles by September. Then don't get hurt!
  9. OrioleDog

    The Nick Markakis 2,000th hit countdown thread

    That the Braves picked up Adam Duvall, only entering arbitration, takes a good bite out of their potential Markakis demand going into 2019. I've always considered an eventual reunion reasonably likely, but before July 31, figured Atlanta would easily out-compete us for his next contract. Now...who knows, though I think he's played well enough this year that a competitive team will want him for at least one more year.
  10. OrioleDog

    Take this for what it's worth....

    So between this observation 6 hours ago, and Santandah's post about Liontree partnering with Ripken baseball 3 hours ago, I am having a very Twilight Zone moment. Because Aryeh Bourkoff was a high school classmate of mine at City in the early 90's Ripken golden age - when Cal was God incarnate to we adolescents suffering through those terrible teams. I just emailed some of my high school buddies that I think an Aryeh-Cal consortium could one day be a real thing.
  11. OrioleDog

    Mullins is with the Orioles! (edited)

    Ever since I first saw him at Bowie last summer, I've had to discipline myself not to throw Al Bumbry...there aren't a lot of 5-8, 175 switch hitting centerfielders! Al was in Vietnam his Age-23 year in 1970, then couldn't crack the 71/72 teams while hitting .340 over almost 1000 PAs. Finally in the show for his Age-26 year in 1973, he hit .337 and won RoY. I don't think the 2019/2020 Orioles will present the obstacles to playing time Bumbry faced two generations ago, so I guess we'll never know if Mullins could threaten .350 if we held him at Norfolk two more years.
  12. OrioleDog

    Mullins is with the Orioles! (edited)

    It sounds like the Norfolk playoff run is going to be a thing, and I guess that's okay, but Mullins is going to be a glove guy, and his defense this summer is almost surely going to be better than it will be 7 years from now. Across 2 levels Mullins has 48 XBH and just 66K, which is a very good ratio. XBH greater than K is very special. Even Vlad is only at 38/30 there, though he is 4.5 years younger. Like almost any rookie, I expect MLB pitchers to have him for lunch for awhile in the beginning. Now that we've demolished, I no longer see much harm in that being next spring rather than this fall. Curious what folks are hoping for from him offensively next year. Personally I would consider 245/300/425 a very good 2019 outcome for him, but 700 is probably a more realistic OPS over/under.
  13. OrioleDog

    Cedric Mullins 2018

    Duquette on Tuesday night's game when he called in with Gary and Jim in the middle innings flatly said : We are going to audition Mullins for CF. He didn't specify a time but I imagine everyone is catching their breath a little and laying groundwork with AJ. I suppose another tradeoff is is there a little value in letting Mullins try and help Tides into AAA postseason? We always have September.
  14. OrioleDog

    2019 Draft Order Tracker

    Padres and White Sox don't want to be counted out yet. We do have the trump card of last 10 games at NYY, at BOS and vs. HOU - if Yankees and Red Sox still battling in games 154-159, that's almost a sure 0-6 road trip.
  15. OrioleDog

    Schoop vs Manny. Who Ya Got?

    Thomas Jefferson still lives.