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About OrioleDog

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    Plus Member since 12/05
  • Birthday 2/5/1973

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    Eddie Murray

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  1. It's rare my Facebook feed has anything new for the Hangout, but FWIW I just saw a post saying the Tides beat writer reports there is handshaking going on at Kline's locker, so maybe he'll be dodging the raindrops between Norfolk and Baltimore tonight to be Mr. 26. Can you imagine the juice for your first call-up, but having to get from Norfolk to Baltimore tonight? Can you sleep and do it at dawn when the weather comes through? Would a AAA guy have a driver for a trip like this?
  2. I agree the expected trade return is virtually zero, and am interested in the question more for what it may or may not suggest about the club's development strategy for the first wave of lower upside arms while we wait and see what Hall and Rodriguez grow up into. That said - the playing time of the MLB club until July 31 is also an asset Elias has to utilize as he thinks best. Wildcard makes a good point about his salary, and with the current GM crop, trade value is really just a proxy for expected surplus value on the remainder of a contract's term, and Gio's structure noted does work against that. But last August 31 he was on a $12M contract and got Gilbert Lara, a $3M July 2 bonus baby who has disappointed for five years but is still just 21, and a 3rd round college bat from Oregon State. Nobody gets that if nobody gives him a job, which may indeed be how it plays out. But there's ~60 starters who are say around Sonny Gray's level or better, and everything else is just moving parts. I'm not sure if Gio doesn't have a job now because no one wants him at all, or if he just hasn't adjusted to what the market is willing to pay a guy like him. I'm also not sure how his compensation works if he opts out of his contract, he's more interesting if it is a new negotiation then. Since I see him so much the same as Straily, and we wanted Straily, it also seems possible we'd want him too.
  3. Gio is basically Dan Straily's left-handed counterpart, a reasonable #4, or good #5 starter if you are targeting 88 wins except that role has been dusted Thanos-style. For the 2019 Orioles, he's basically a proxy to me of how ready do you feel Akin, Ortiz, Kremer, etc. are for big league innings later this summer, and/or do you care about giving them a full AAA year and retaining club control over that kind of guy for an extra year? Like with Swihart, if you just give him a job for 3 months and leave him alone, you might have a trade chip if his isn't one of the arms that gets attrited in the first half.
  4. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/48572/table-for-two-prospects-will-break-your-swihart/ BP with a long ventilation. Ben Carsley is a New Englander and one of their prospect guys so I think he lets go of prospect pedigree daydreams later than most others. Still, overall this nudges me to wanting him more. I hadn't realized the Red Sox refused a trade demand of his last year - some of it is the Roger Clemens-in-Toronto psychobabble where I want to have the underappreciated talent right when the chip on his shoulder is boulder-sized. Even if we love our catchers, they point out he could do a C/1B/LF field thing and I'd rather see him get 300 PAs before the trade deadline than Joey Rickard or DJ Stewart.
  5. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/48562/rubbing-mud-trey-mancini-is-rising/ So a BP guy did a deep dive, watched a bunch of video on Savant, and his conclusion is that, after the mechanical adjustments he has made to get his launch angle up a bit, now he looks like Mike Trout. I don't think I realized last year how MUCH he had the Yandy Diaz groundball problem, with all the same flaws and upside if hitters that strong can make even small adjustments to their launch angle profiles.
  6. We'll come by letting ~900 runs in honestly. The first couple weeks have been a nice treat, but long losing streaks will be inevitable, and opposing batters stat-padding opportunities will not be infrequent. We don't want the Marlins to get too far out in front of the 1-1 race for next summer - if the baseball gods smile upon a season, some years the difference between 1-1 and 1-2 can push being as big as the difference between 1-2 and 1-15.
  7. http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401126813 Led the Eastern Conference favorite Bucks in minutes in a Game 1 blowout.
  8. I don't think it was all hype. The high-water mark was after 2014. At that point he was a 1st round high-school catcher from 2011 who had been good at A/A+/AA all three years from 2012-2014, and started showing power at AA. Imagine if DL Hall is good at Frederick this year and good at Bowie next year. BP 2015 gushes: There's nothing quite so seductive as a blue chip catching prospect, and Swihart blossomed into such a siren in 2014. More well rounded than special in any one area of the game, Swihart's power started to stand out in Portland, as he added nearly 60 points of isolated power from his 2013 campaign in Salem. A switch-hitter who profiles as a slightly above-average defender, Swihart is the ever-rare player who should be able to hit in the first two-thirds of a batting order for a first-division team while catching in excess of 120 games. His development has been exceptionally smooth and markedly linear for a prep catching prospect. And except for a hot first couple months in the show, nothing but stagnation and frustration in the four years since.
  9. I just got far enough in the ESPN story to the parts too about how this is to facilitate getting Sandy Leon back for Chris Sale against the Yankees tonight. Obligatory mention that Red Sox catchers hit worse than Orioles first basemen last year, but I guess none of that matters if Chris Sale thinks he needs you.
  10. I think I'm kind of rooting for it. It's just a pedigree bet. Probably in the end Swihart will just be another example of how hard it is for even reputedly elite prospects to establish themselves when the big club is death-fighting the Yankees eternally and has low tolerance for letting a rookie stink for a couple months. We've got a couple months. He's basically the catcher equivalent of Mullins or Smith - longshots to be part of the next good team, but if the incumbents are no shots...
  11. Metaphorically I see a scale with Wieters's and Posey's realities at either end. A bellwether of whether we are real 2022 playoff contenders or pesky up-and-comers I can imagine will be has Rutschman unseated Gary Sanchez as the perennial starting catcher in the All-Star game.
  12. Updating original post now that Adley is almost halfway through his junior year: WIETERS NCAA, Ages 19-21 Freshman 366/470/581 in 227 AB's Sophomore 355/480/606 in 259 ABs Junior 358/480/592 in 218 ABs RUTSCHMAN NCAA, Ages 19-21 Freshman 234/322/306 in 209 AB's Sophomore 408/505/628 in 250 AB's Junior 426/580/842 in first 101 AB’s So ummm....yeah.
  13. OrioleDog

    Keegan Akin 2019

    Whenever it is, he'll also be a worthy addition to the portly lefty who can really pitch category. He's listed at 6'0" 225 on B-Ref, where Sid Fernandez is 6'1" 220. I was going to give David Wells's measurables seriously too, but just spit a little coffee out seeing him listed at 6'3" 187. Ha!
  14. OrioleDog

    Keegan Akin 2019

    It'll be interesting to watch - heaven knows we could use his help to get the team up to 1500 IP. But on the other side of the coin, Tampa somewhat famously has their medium (even sometimes their good) SP prospects go a full year at a level, and Akin is only debuting at AAA now. I imagine it turns some on if guys like Hess and Means can get to 140-ish innings with 5.25-ish ERA's around where their FIPs are now. The team might have its hand forced on an Akin-type guys if those get into the 6.00's once MLB hitters get to know them a bit.
  15. Good call - I was coming here with the same link. A lot of quotes too, and you can hear a coherent signal behind all of them. Grayson's certainly leveled up to near Bundy Delmarva-ish heights for his next outings and as long as he stays hot. 2012 Bundy was 8 at Delmarva, 12 at Frederick, 3 at Bowie, but I would guess Frederick will be his ceiling this summer. I think BA lets guys be on multiple league prospect lists if they have enough time in each - Rodriguez may have a shot to be among top Sally and Carolina League guys.
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