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762 Triple-A

About OrioleDog

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    Plus Member since 12/05
  • Birthday 2/5/1973

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    Arlington, VA
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  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Eddie Murray
  1. Dan Connolly: Orioles Must Be Willing To Make A Trade

    Delino DeShields had put in 4 seasons as an Expo from ages 21-24, compiling 10 B-Ref WAR including 3.2 and 4.0 in the last two seasons. Ignoring 2013's cup of coffee, Jonathan Schoop has put in 4 seasons from ages 22-25, compiling 10 B-Ref WAR including 2.1 and 5.1 in the last two seasons. Lightning couldn't strike twice, could it? For grins, Pedro in the year before the trade was a 21-year old swingman for the Dodgers who had a 2.61 ERA in 107 IP. Some of the best pitchers aged 21-23 last year - Severino, McCullers, Luke Weaver. To a lesser extent, Jose Berrios and the Rockies German Marquez and Antonio Sentazela.
  2. This spring Clay Davenport added translations from a slew of foreign leagues, but the most interesting part to me was the end. http://claydavenport.com/archives/377 AAA rated around 75-80% as good as MLB, but within MLB, the American League was more than 10% better. I do think Dan and Buck are enough AL chauvinists that they look at the Davies-type guys and aren't as bothered as most of us because they believe they wouldn't be as good in our division. They probably even look at Arrieta that way.
  3. Adam on the Buck/Dan relationship

    I feel like Sisco could be an interesting one next year. I'm pretty sure Dan doesn't weigh Sisco's arm as heavily as Buck. I think they mostly make a good team, and divides are mostly minor. The way I see it, in simplest terms - Dan is Fangraphs/Moneyball, and Buck is old school. If we could have read Dan's mind for an hour in Toronto a year ago, we'd probably have a better idea the width of the gap - both are solid professionals and I don't expect much ever to get out publicly. Francisco Rodriguez was one a few years back - I think Dan thought he was providing a perfectly good reliever, and Buck didn't like him. Ibid Kim. Before Schoop, I thought Yamaico Navarro was in Dan's mind a 2B who could hit some that just didn't pass Buck's muster.
  4. The thing is - if we could have pitched to the "replacement" 5.25 instead of what actually happened this summer, we would have been a bit closer in the last month and less apt to have a team-wide nod off. Though, more apt for an exhausted top player to have a final run injury ala Machado in 2013.
  5. I also think it was a little bigger than a 3 game impact because replacement level isn't uniform. The Orioles pitching depth was so poor that we've given 30 some other starts to BELOW replacement level pitchers. 60 some if you count Miley, but his -0.1 WAR is basically at replacement level. That said, the Twins are heading towards beating us by 10 games so I don't think even good Tillman would have gotten us more than halfway there.
  6. Perusing the FA pitcher list...

    In the category of pipe dreams, Shohei Otani is someone I'd rather have than probably any two guys on this list over the next 6 years. Practically speaking, I think he's going to be the market setter at the top and Darvish and Arrieta may have to wait on him. In the category of Oriole reality, 'll tout Lackey again, to be the Sutcliffe for a new generation. This is more of a considered prediction than a hope. I agree we won't be competitive for the top guys, but Lackey has the resume/experience we will probably value some. Lackey's reached the point that teams better than us mostly won't need him - I'm guessing we'll be one of the better teams actually wanting the services of guys like him. He's been the ace, won a World Series, and might enjoy mentoring. He has had his ups and downs and been through a lot, and I think in Buck's eyes his veteran leader potential may outweigh some of the blemishes on his record. Perhaps those blemishes and enduring them even add to it. Here's one aspect I like. He's probably ending in a 2/25 ballpark, maybe even 1/15. The Davis benchmark is an albatross with Manny - he's at least twice as good. If we get Cobb at 5/95, what happens if Bundy (or Gausman to a lesser extent) become who we hope?
  7. Beef, It's what's for dinner.

    Reds today announced a 4 yr/$15.5M extension with Tucker Barnhart, covering his 3 Arb and first FA seasons. There's a $7.5M option, or $500K buyout, on FA year 2. I'd guess the structure is about $1M/$3M/$5M Arb, and buying the FA year for about $6.5. It's one data point for a middle class starting catcher.
  8. Now is the time: Extend Chris Tillman.

    Whatever amount of talent he has left, it's a nice sentiment. I imagine he's going to be a February sign. The hope is doing his regular offseason will get him back closer to himself - there's no reason for teams to jump before the New Year. It's easy to picture well attended throwing sessions closer to when camps open, and those scouting reports driving where along the spring training invite to small major league guarantee spectrum he lands.
  9. Atlanta could be an interesting fit if they deem 2018 the start of a new winning phase - they've amassed a lot of stuff in their rebuilding phase.
  10. So what's the rotation next year?

    John Lackey feels Sutcliffe-y right to me. After a moment's consideration, it feels very Oriole-ish too in a Sosa/Vlad way. It could also be a good fit for Lackey if he wants another shot at being a rotation mainstay, perhaps even Opening Day starter - he isn't going to be that for good pitching staffs anymore. You could probably argue reasonably the last ride 2018 Machado Orioles are as good a shot as he's going to get at future postseason starts.
  11. Kevin Gausman 2017

    Gausman has a lot more experience than McDonald had before Sutcliffe arrived, but he still feels like an unharnessed talent just like Ben always did. I feel like going into this offseason there's parallels of: McDonald : Gausman Mussina : Bundy Sutcliffe : ??? We're going to be shopping for a couple starters, and I'm guessing with Tillman a question mark that resume/experience will weigh more into our preferences than some would hope. Down in DC, I feel like part of why they bought Scherzer even though they had lots of pitching was to try and save Strasburg's soul, and it has worked. Skimming the FA's, the Sutcliffe-iest name I see is John Lackey.
  12. Chance Sisco: 'I'll Be Ready' When Orioles Call

    I would be curious to know the attempts per game last postseason. Even we attempted one in the wildcard game after barely running all year, and anecdotally, it felt like teams ran more in the playoffs. The Nationals were 8-for-9 in their 5 game series loss to the Dodgers, even vs. Grandal, who was above average during the regular season. And the 7 game World Series had 15 attempts (8/1 Cubs, 4/2 Indians). I have a notion that running wild can be a short term scoring boost, the offset risk is the health of your players. I also think like trick plays in football, playoff teams don't want to reveal strenghts or highlight weaknesses they know about until they have to. This month, I believe the Indians, Astros, Nationals and Dodgers are just running the ball up the middle. I imagine somewhere analysts for those teams are comparing their batters sprint speeds with likely playoff opponent battery's control times and looking for free bases. The nice thing for Sisco prospectively, is regular season mode is safer if there's anything to this. There could be a cat and mouse game if the arm plays as badly as some fear, but we really won't know until he gets in. I remember part of the end of the line for Hoiles was every walk was a double - he faced 125 attempts in 83 catcher games his last year, and got just 22%.
  13. Miggy takes mound to help us out today

    True, but there's tonight. This next hour or two he might as well have a bird on his cap.
  14. There's no way to test it but I think that that most of the best potential pitchers not pitching in MLB are MLB position players. If there were a rapture like event after the season where every MLB pitcher (and Shohei Otani i guess) vanished, I'd guess someone like Mitch Moreland would win 2018's Cy Young before I'd guess Mike Wright. Aaron Hicks and Hunter Renfroe have thrown over 100 more than a couple times.
  15. August Schedule is Ripe for a Run

    With Trumbo getting his 10 days now, that is everyone but AJ in the 30's set getting a chunk of time off. Schoop and Manny have the youth and experience blend, and Mancini we'll see. Even the years we've made the playoffs, I've always felt the other good teams were at closer to peak strength in October because we ride our frontline guys pretty hard. If there's a run this year, I think the enforced rest so far will help fuel it.