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OrioleDog

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About OrioleDog

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    Plus Member since 12/05
  • Birthday 2/5/1973

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    Arlington, VA
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  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Eddie Murray

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  1. It's totally academic, but most of my life over the course of a season I've held to the old notion each year there's 54 you win, 54 you lose and the rest decide the year. I'm not sure that's true anymore. There's no reason this year's Astros would try their hardest against this year's Orioles 162 times, but if they did, would we get 30 wins? 20? Fangraphs occasionally posts want ads from teams, and it caught my eye that one valued machine learning as a targeted skill. The batter pitcher matchup has always been a game of chess, and actual chess is no contest anymore. Players will always be their own strategists to some degree, but I do believe the disparity in insight between clubs is at least rivaling if not outright surpassing the disparity in innate baseball talent between players. It's added to my enjoyment of October the last couple years. Because only now do we really get to see what the best teams think are the best competitive practices, and the Astros I think have opened enough of a gap they can hide some of what they really know during the year (e.g., Mike Fiers led 2017 team in innings, Correa/Altuve miss months with injuries Buck's guys would ""post up" and "grind" through). Lance McCullers won't throw 30 straight curveballs in the summer, but he might tonight.
  2. OrioleDog

    Ex-Orioles in the postseason

    The Brewers coaches are going to have a job with Schoop's psyche this offseason - I think everyone on the team except him has been in some part of the two biggest games in forever in Milwaukee. I don't think he'll get non-tendered because Moustakas is a full-on rental, Milwaukee is going to want to hold Hiura beyond next year's Super Two date in June, and in April/May Schoop should have access to the regular at-bats he needs to get going. But I suspect he won't be part of the Brewers October 2019 plans either. Going into this series I figured the Dodgers lefty starters would give him a shot, but man, being a DNP - Coach's Decision for Hernan Perez has got to sting.
  3. OrioleDog

    Ex-Orioles in the postseason

    Curious - what do folks think the state of play is if in Brewers run prevention meetings, they ask Schoop for a consult on how to get Manny out? And vice versa? Stuff like, when we were 17, he told me he doesn't like Pitch X in Location Y.
  4. There's a certain psychobabble level where I think Britton is being a "true Oriole" here. He might still see here as a potential closer gig and good paycheck. It could kind of be a fun exercise for Britton over the next few years, sign 1-year contracts, get traded in July for whoever wants a guy like him on a 2-month term + postseason basis, and when he comes back for good on the 2022 Orioles, the roster is made up of him and like 6 guys he brought into the organization. True Orioles have to play the long game. I do think big data in the last few years is proving its worth so much so that the lines between The Player and The Organization are blurrier than they have ever been.
  5. I have had this thought too, but I think it is a year away. Buck can use a recharge. And Rizzo, who thinks he is so smart that the manager job is unimportant, has already endorsed Martinez Year 2 specifically. My gut instinct is ownership won't force him to hop unless Martinez fails again next year. At that point I expect the fanbase will clamor, and if it happens it'll kind of be Rizzo being dragged to the altar.
  6. OrioleDog

    Tracking Ex Oriole Thread

    I didn't realize his ERA was that good. He's a generic pitcher, and the performance was generically blah, but in a team and race context, beating Lester at Wrigley is a tremendous win, and I'm sure he's proud as a peacock today. I think Miley is the pitcher he is, and most of what we're seeing is the defense part of run prevention. The Statcast podcast guys talked a little Brewers after the strange IF acquisitions about how good their defense was everywhere, and how their shifts were a little different than many other teams. I think the Brewers may have some insights around infield defense specifically, where they feel they can just put linebackers in the right spots and be good. I do think the direction of ground balls is more clustered by batter than the direction of air balls, so that there may be some ways to finesse infield defense that aren't available out on the grass.
  7. He needs a big game tonight to really rate, but he's a candidate for August AL Pitcher of the Month. He's 4th in ERA heading into tonight - the competition is: Snell - 1.04 ERA in 26 IP - next start is 9/1 so he's done Price - 1.33 ERA in 27 IP - has Marlins at home tonight Fiers - 1.38 ERA in 26 IP - has Mariners at home Friday Cobb - 1.80 ERA in 35 IP - likely needs 7 shutout innings tonight to get ERA to low-1.00's, and then maybe the 50% innings edge on Snell plays.
  8. OrioleDog

    Thoughts on McCutchen in the rebuild?

    I'll be the devil's advocate for here. Of course going in it's got to be a given the terms of the contract will be surprisingly reasonable ala Cruz before spring training (i.e., no better team really wants him). We have an OF opening next Opening Day, if as I'm hoping Mancini is DH (or 1B if something happens with Davis quicker than is likely), and Trumbo gets RF (a bargain with the devil so he can hit and maybe get traded mid-year). Given the demolition, I don't see much point to breaking any of Diaz or Hays in before Super Two. Everyone else is kind of a non-entity, except maybe DJ Stewart, who I think at this point I'd be happy if he could have Joe Orsulak's career. The Camden teaser with McCutchen is he's a good eye, Hall of Very Good right-handed hitter who has spent his entire career in parks that suppress RH power. There could be surprising power goodies if he comes here and starts to harvest (i.e., trade some AVG for trying to kill the ball, a not uncommon old player tactic) successfully, and hence some value as a trade chip when Mullins's 2019 counterpart is ready.
  9. The DuVall acquisition muddies the Atlanta water a bit. What about a 21-10 reunion in Cleveland? Brantley's a free agent, and the Indians will be bargain shopping as their core players get pricier. If he's healed, Zimmer has good CF range. I vote Nick on the contract. Hit is the premier carrying tool for the mid-30's set.
  10. OrioleDog

    Dodgers Activating Bullpen Mode

    Their postseason odds aren't the Dodgers, and there are some injury and performance reasons behind it too, but Carlos Martinez and Luke Weaver are hitting the middle-relief ranks for September too.
  11. OrioleDog

    Buck and TTP

    It would be good theater to see what would happen if we had someone like Noah Syndergaard. He happened to pitch in this year's Statcast broadcast last week and it came up as things like a Jorge Alfaro 2-steal game and Maikel Franco's 1st steal attempt since 2016 transpired.
  12. Looking at Schoop and Villar's recent performance revs up the confirmation bias on the old trope that steady playing time is an ingredient in individual success. Buck's regulars seem to get that more than average, and I believe there is probably some player skill involved in being able to be good 4 days a week if you aren't playing 6 or 7. Even as successful as our teams were, our good players never really had to try and learn that skill the way similarly good players on some of today's juggernauts do.
  13. OrioleDog

    Who is part of our next winning core?

    It'll be interesting to see if any current Oriole can emerge as the centerpiece of a decent team. I think the odds are against it, but I can envision a fine supporting cast for 2019 draft pick 1-1 or 1-2, and his 2020 counterpart. While waiting on those guys, I suppose Hall and Rodriguez are the best bets. Lowther and Akin feel steadier to me than guys with big upside, but teams need guys like them. Like everyone since Bedard, it appears both Bundy and Gausman are falling short of the hopes we had for them given their pedigree, even if they avoided the Hobgood Pit of Worthlessness.
  14. OrioleDog

    If...when...Machado signs w/NYY

    He might like it there, but given NYY's hitting/pitching mix, the situation seems ripe for a replay of the Mussina/Manny Ramirez offseason where they went pitcher, especially if Stanton doesn't opt out. And if Stanton does, that's probably more music to Harper's ears than Machado's. I'd also have to imagine the Yankees will be heavily interested in making Chris Sale the new Jacoby Ellsbury another year hence. They already have $87M for 2020 committed to just Stanton, Ellsbury, Tanaka and Chapman; Machado and Sale both would get them past $150M for the top 6 guys as Judge and Sanchez enter Arb, and Severino gets to Arb2.
  15. OrioleDog

    Is it just me......?

    I think there's one other thing fueling the industry website buzz about our struggles this year - they're finally able to get it out. For a long while, the Orioles had been mostly good while the projection systems have pegged them terrible. At long last the terrible forecast has come to fruition. At some point I half expect a tongue in cheek piece about how, on aggregate, PECOTA has now gotten the 2012-2018 Orioles right.
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