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About OrioleDog

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    Plus Member since 12/05
  • Birthday 2/5/1973

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    Arlington, VA
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  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Eddie Murray

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  1. OrioleDog

    Tracking Ex Oriole Thread

    Just read Manny visiting White Sox today, and wonder if Yonder is there. I feel sure the White Sox taking on Alonso's ~$8M is a sweetener hoping to get the $300M they want Manny to take. If it works, Manny could have another year of maybe rocking the boat for a marginal incumbent SS named Tim. Standard disclaimer that as always with Manny, his team would be better off if he would focus on trying to unseat Mike Schmidt, or whoever you've got for best 3B ever.
  2. OrioleDog

    Rank the #1 Draft Disappointments

    As if the CJ Cron signing wasn't enough of a hint to Pujols, I've heard he's seen some of those SS as short left fielder alignments the last couple years too. If he cares about the sort of thing, he is also sitting at the very round B-Ref career number of 100.0 WAR. Though also 18 RBI's away from 2000, and passing Gehrig and Bonds to boot. So as I cast about for stuff to root for next year, I guess a couple good months for Albert gets to go on the list.
  3. OrioleDog

    Reminder: Official Press Conference Monday Noon

    Maybe quicker hooks third time through the order for starters, even if the outcomes on the first 18 batters faced have been good. Hyde will have lots of latitude to manage reliever rest according to any schedule judged good to maximize performance - the days of Brach type guys needing to pitch 5 days a week will be off for awhile.
  4. OrioleDog

    Will the Orioles be better in 2019 than 2018?

    Agree 100%. I meant building from lightweight contender to heavyweight contender. I think they surprised themselves a little last year - both Snell and the Opener Strategy had 90th percentile type seasons. The Morton signing is unusual for them and tells me they feel significantly good about themselves. I'm pretty sure Cruz or E5 will become a bookend to Willy Adames at the other end of the defensive spectrum, everything in between will be effective platoons, and Alvarado/Stanek/Castillo will push past 200 innings behind the two real starters and whatever Tyler Glasnow is. Really while we're waiting watching these guys stick it to aging JD Martinez or Yankee Machado is maybe as much fun as we'll have with the competitive parts of the summers. I hadn't really connected them in my FA speculations but maybe Britton's a sweetspot for them as a save-getter to make sure arb isn't too lucrative for the real hotshots.
  5. OrioleDog

    Will the Orioles be better in 2019 than 2018?

    The league context might be a little easier with SEA jumping for the bottom, and I suspect TEX and KC will more forcefully too. The White Sox are probably the only team that will be meaningfully better next year. But the divisional context will be worse with TB building, and Vlad arriving. Maybe we get some 2nd half freebies from a heartbroken TOR team for whom Vlad perhaps isn't enough to even stay in range of the behemoths. It's easy to picture Smoak, Pillar, Morales, Stroman and Giles as a July diaspora ala us last year.
  6. OrioleDog

    Will the Orioles be better in 2019 than 2018?

    I think the scope of losing we're about to experience needs a multi-year perspective. Here's the prop that I think may be a close bet while we're waiting for the next good team. 2011-2013 Astros: 324 losses (111, 107, 106) 2018-2020 Orioles: More or less than 324? (115, x, x) I do think next year's team will be better just by dint of youth and energy - I think there's psychobabble that pushes the implosion of old guys heartbroken by massive failure on the last ride beyond the worse that a batch of young guys trying to forge a little place in the game for themselves will produce even if their innate talent is replacement level.
  7. Here's another input 'I consider alongside the defensive metrics. Minor league games by position: 458 at 1B, 0 at OF. If the scouts and org thought he had a modicum of natural talent for OF, I imagine they would have tried to develop it. That the results have been what they've been is probably about what you'd expect making a non-outfielder play the position. Great job by Mancini to have hit his way to the majors, and frankly I'm curious to see if he can find an extra half gear hitting once he moves past having to try and survive in LF on a regular basis. A poor man's version of Eric Karros's career is probably his best case outcome if the hopeless LF attempt has indeed taxed his hitting a bit. Earl in Weaver on Strategy talked about using guys for what they're good at, and shielding them from what they aren't. That's not been what Mancini's experienced up here.
  8. Basically, the Kris Bryant or Ronald Acuna move. While the CBA gives teams 6 years of control, the elite talents get their service time managed so routinely that their clubs can get 6.95 years of play before free agency is earned. The same thing is coming up with Vlad Jr. in Toronto and Eloy Jimenez in Chicago this spring. The result will be 6 years from now - aw shucks, you've only got 5.95 years of service, you are a Cub/Brave/Blue Jay/White Sox again. It has become so common that "7th year" has kind of become a short hand way of describing. What I was wondering if this is an early indicator that Elias's vision might be to do the same thing with Yusniel Diaz in 2019, and in the first couple weeks of the 2020 season. Steamer already thinks Diaz's .327 OBP is the best any Oriole will do in 2019 - on pure merit he's very likely qualified to deserve major league reps next year. It's only asset management strategy that may result in him having that delayed.
  9. My main reaction here is....is Yusniel Diaz now a candidate for International League MVP? I kind of imagined him breaking in next summer, but now I'm not sure. Unlike Mullins whose 7th year wasn't worth worrying about, Yusniel I hope is. On a macro level, it is kind of like is a 1-year $5M commitment to some Denard Span type a good investment in buying club control of Yusniel Diaz's 2026 season? It'll be good 25-man roster theater if Diaz (or Hays even) has one of those rookie Nick Markakis springs.
  10. OrioleDog

    Harold Baines.....Lee Smith in Hall of Fame

    My goofy thought at this goofiness is Jay Jaffe lobbied too successfully for Tim Raines, and there was some rhyming name carryover. I'll be curious to see if the Baines firestorm pushes the ballot size restraint towards a tipping point. I know some of why the ballot has stayed clogged is thoughtful voters seeing more than 10 guys they want to vote for and having to game play, pick and choose within that limit. It's why I imagine there will be a few strategic Mariano Rivera non-votes among the bigger strategic voting enthusiasts, which of course is an affront to the pure excellence part this would ideally be about.
  11. I'd give Givens the edge on Cobb in the category of giving pixie dust strategically for trade bait ROI. Normal Givens should be a fair piece, but I also think he's at a point in the talent curve where if he ups his game another notch or two, the trade returns could get a bit more intriguing. I also feel like in real life it'll be tough for Givens to do that having fired a lot of good bullets the past several seasons, whereas Cobb is in the honeymoon period with his new TJ ligament now 3 years old.
  12. OrioleDog

    Adam Ottavino vs "The Babe"

    He cited Babe's swing, the weight of his bat and diet when talking with the Statcast podcast hosts on this. About 10 years ago at a bookstore event, I heard Kevin Goldstein, a long time prospect writer at BA and BP before joining the Astros in 2012, say he guessed Adam Jones was about as good as Willie Mays in response to an "old days" type question comparing basically the 1950's and 2000's.
  13. OrioleDog

    O’s claim 3B Rio Ruiz, lose Ryan Meisinger

    Perhaps also a trickle down of the Braves landing Donaldson, as he was kind of their Renato Nunez. As someone who plays NL only fantasy with minors, Rio Ruiz was kind of a hot property four years ago when he went to ATL from HOU. He co-headlined with Foltynewicz (who has developed much more successfully) to land the Astros Gattis. After 2014, he was a high school bat who had completed two full-season leagues - his eye as a 20-year old in High-A (albeit the California League) was excellent, almost a 1:1 BB/K ratio. 2015-2018 however mostly makes it look like the Astros did a good job selling high.
  14. OrioleDog

    Week 14 @ Kansas City

    Yeah, heck of a throw by Mahomes back over the middle on the long 4th down play, but it wasn't lost on me that it was Weddle who couldn't close from the weakside of the play. Anyway, thanks to the big assist from the Raiders, I think now the division is there for the taking holding serve at home as long as the Saints and Patriots don't slip up against Pittsburgh.
  15. OrioleDog

    Rumors and News

    Billy Hamilton another interesting non-tender now being reported. Schoop, Davidson, Flores - I can all kind of get if the modern GM's perspective is the antiquated arb system values HR/RBI too much. Maybe with Hamilton it's just the same thing with the SB counting stats. Certainly Elias has plenty of cover if he passes on any of ours.