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Everything posted by OrioleDog

  1. I'd guess we get a little taste of the best of the batch in the second half next year. This could be the last month that nothing positive happens in terms of the enjoyment I hope to get from the major league club starting to have access to more talented players. Sept. 2019 - Akin Apr. 2020 - the sheer joy of a new season regardless May 2020 - the Mountcastle/Diaz winner June 2020 - the loser July 2020 - whatever current Bay Sock makes the AAA All-Star team I may be selling July/August 2019 Santander short if he can sustain Singletonian type things.
  2. Of course there will be tremendous demand for him across the game - the point is more that perhaps the 2021-2023 Red Sox are shaping up to be almost as inappropriate a spot for a regular MVP candidate's end-of-prime as the 2019-2021 Orioles were/are for Manny Machado's. They will still have Bogaerts/Devers/Benintendi though. 2021 is pushing it but I'll be disappointed if by the offseason before 2022 we aren't in position to be a valid bidder for a superstar to push the Rutschman group forward. Heaven knows we will have the payroll space.
  3. Cashner removed from rotation after compiling 8.00 ERA in 30 innings. The 2021 Red Sox don't control Mookie Betts, have a low ranked farm, and owe $130M to Age-35 Price, JD Martinez, Eovaldi, Pedroia, Age-32 Sale and Bogaerts. I think I think we'll be better than the Red Sox in 2 years. I would be entertained by Orioles fans going into full "We love you Mookie" recruitment mode in the year ahead. He's a year ahead of the Lindor, etc 2022 class that has a bunch of candidates for the Rutschman bookend, but it'll be a good sign if during next year goofing around with that kind of stuff isn't completely ridiculous.
  4. OrioleDog

    Keegan Akin 2019

    He's my half-educated guess to lead team in September IP. He's completed the minor league 5 months in each of the last 2 years, and I can imagine Starts 26-30 part of the org's goals for him this year. He'll be 25 by Opening Day and no health blips yet. It doesn't really make sense to me for what MLB hitters are like to stay unknown to him this offseason - I'll be more perplexed if he isn't called up.
  5. Franmil in Cleveland is the BEST real life Pedro Cerrano I've ever seen. I do understand a bit of a keener eye for Nunez's slumps as I think the burden of proof is still on him to show he can sustain as a cromulent MLB'er. It's only half the at-bats this year but Santander has already leapfrogged him in my mind as a possible cog in the next good team.
  6. That sounds right, and 2019 Karns IMO offered a better possibility of ROI if he had a Best Case kind of season than 2020 Villar would. I think we're seeing 2019 Villar having a Mid-Best Case kind of season without establishing any market value.
  7. Would it be too soon for Hyde to have Buck back to spring training for a day to talk to some of the guys?
  8. I was feeling that way too, but I just peeked at the next couple weeks and we have 13 straight Yankees/Astros/Red Sox games after this Toronto series. The Tigers open an 11-game homestand against the White Sox, Royals and Mariners... I half want to say the Tigers short term juju will be better because they did what most probably expected whereas Givens in the end didn't pitch well enough to become anyone's priority.
  9. A small sigh of relief as the Braves didn't buy an outfielder. Adam Duvall is on a good run, but I feel pretty confident the Braves would greatly prefer to give Markakis October at-bats if he has a week or two to get the rust off. Duvall to me is kind of a poster child for a slugger who can get his roto stats in the 162, but everyone expects would go 1-for-15 if he is a regular in the divisional series. Really the drama now is Nick not losing his October. As a fan of him building his case beyond Hall of Very Good, a key plank in the platform is him having some kind of Bloody Sock moment some fall to accompany the ~2600 hits.
  10. It is sort of a random player to put a lot of chips on, but I'd like to see Keegan Akin have a decent cup of coffee. John Means still feels too out of the blue and too good to be true - Akin is the 1st pitcher I've nurtured real hopes could be part of the next good team whose debut we could have to look forward to before the end of the year. I appreciate that he's closing in on 3-for-3 at full seasons of health, and like that as a marker. Even though AAA hitters are sort of lighting him up like a pinball message, I'm okay developmentally if for the offseason he gets a taste of what MLB hitters are like to compete against.
  11. I imagine the calculus is preserving 90%+ postseason probability over the long haul yields more championships than pushing one season's probability from 18% to 24%.
  12. Right. Rutschman's May 1, 2021 debut (give or take a few weeks either way) will be analogous to Stras-mania down in DC. Maybe that night's lineup is RF Diaz, C Rutschman, DH Mountcastle, 1B Mancini, LF Santander, CF Hays, 3B Nunez, 2B Bannon, SS Grenier, and you have Means, Akin, Kremer and Baumann for the rotation. It's Dylan Bundy's Arb3 year, so maybe he's the 5th starter, if baseball even still has those in 2 more years. Bring the 1st round stud pitchers into that mix as the year goes along (including 2020's draft pick if an NCAA fast mover), buy Lindor and Scherzer that offseason and enjoy 2022. Maybe set a record for giving 2 players 75% of the MLB payroll.
  13. Agreed, though the Bowie guys run gives me a glimmer. It needs Mountcastle, Diaz and Hays to be more stars than role players, and the organization's pitching strategists to make a lot more than I expect from the high minors basket of arms. I'm pretty sure Rutschman's debut will be early 2021 regardless, but whether Hall and Rodriguez are May or August depends a little on team context assuming they can both keep hitting their milestones the next year and a half (~10-20%).
  14. Plus Ohtani behind Trout. Givens has tamed his platoon splits from when they used to be extreme, but I still consider him a couple ticks better v. RHB. I see the choice last night as driven by more of a generic "We don't do IBB anymore" process than a Trout is 0-for-6 off Givens.
  15. The thing is, we don't really do iBB's as a team anymore (only Astros have fewer this year). Tonight tie game, 2 out, man on 3rd, Givens pitched to Trout and struck him out. Even Thorne and Palmer in the booth started out "no way Trout gets to hit here", then were mildly surprised when we pitched to him.
  16. SInce we're 2-2 above the TIgers, shouldn't GB be 0.0. I ask today, though I wouldn't dare start a Player DFA's thread in the main board, because I just saw the Astros planning to DFA Tony Kemp with Correa's return, and am wondering if the Tigers or Orioles would have 1st AL priority. I do think Kemp is a little more interesting player than formerly famous relievers being weeded out by medium good teams around now.
  17. Heard about this one recently from the College World Series. It helps more if you have a platoon type DH who hits say 6th or so. Say you aren't sure if Ryne Stanek or Ryan Yarbrough will face Batter 6 in the 1st or 2nd inning - just name Yesterday's Starting Pitcher to the lineup and then pinch hit Lowenstein or Roenicke accordingly when you get there.
  18. This doesn't deserve its own thread, so I'll take the entry here. The MLB Orioles 3 IBB given are second fewest this year. Buck's Orioles last year gave out an about league average 29. In a clear case of this is Elias/Sig signal not noise, the first fewest is the Astros with 0, who are bidding to be perhaps the first team in memory not to give one (it'll also make it all the more special if say they gave one to Trout in a postseason game).
  19. It's weird, but amid Rodriguez's slump, I've been comforted seeing Mize and Gore with bumps in the road recently too. It is a reality check - for sure I was entertaining visions of him pitching for the Sally Championship that probably were a stretch endurance wise for someone in high school last year. If we want him hot in September for those playoffs, he probably needs a break. That said, if he doesn't have any health problems that force a break now, I think workload wise I'd rather do the Strasburg Shutdown plan and just see him pitch 4 months and be done, even if that means he misses the Sally postseason. Bringing a HS arm along that you have 32 GS/200 IP hopes for - if it all goes smooth, I kind of feel like in Year 2 you hope for Month 5 of regular SP effectiveness, and Month 6 in Year 3/4. I think for some of our high minors arms that progression to full season starter workloads isn't as important because I imagine Sig and his team finding the optimal middle distance fits for 2022.
  20. This is the first GCL footage I've ever seen - I'll take it. As much as it is exciting to see Rutschman, seeing the blurry grass dirt border - man, that's a new level of low minors.
  21. As with many moments as we touch milestones of the rebuild, today's 4/41/53 trio really just whets my appetite for 12 months forward. I've kind of already pegged both Yusniel and Mountcastle as more glue guys than front liners of the next good team. Another 12 months of health for the pitchers, Rutschman holding serve (or pushing Wander Franco) and Emerson Hancock (or anyone else in the 2020 1-1 mix breaking out over the next 49 weeks), and the best case scenario is the Orioles then holding four of MLB's Top 20 prospects while we wonder if any of the first three get September 2020 cups of coffee (I bet they won't). At that point we will probably still be in the Kumar Rocker mix for 2021. I don't hope for a competitive team until 2022, but can see the first half of 2021 being a ton of fun. We've got walk year Francisco Lindor to impress that season.
  22. Each October I keep half an eye open to see if SB goes through the roof. I feel like it is a known known by now that if you attempt a lot of SB, you incur significant extra injury risk. In the 162, it just isn't worth it for Mike Trout to do that. I like to imagine front offices are counting the fractions of seconds though, and that if the time is right and defending the running game is an opponent's weakness, you'll get a postseason series occasionally where a team that attempts steals 0.3 times per game during the season suddenly goes 3.0 times per game. Those October bases can be worth the risks. I have vivid memories of the end of Chris Hoiles, when every walk was a double.
  23. OrioleDog

    Who is next?

    I agree his utility mght play a little more in the NL. I wouldn't necessarily be trying to market him individually as much as I might include him with Givens to aim for a guy a few ticks higher on our trading partner's organizational list.
  24. What was that Rays quote from yesteryear - something like "the only thing that separates this organization from being seen as one of the best in baseball is WINS and LOSSES at the Major League level".
  25. I will be rooting for us to hire Josh Tomlin as a developmental coach whenever he's finished trying to fool MLB hitters. They are such strange bedfellows but I just love that change up reports like this are coming, and figure their collaboration is partly responsible for it. Fireballing Texas HS with a change up ranked backend Top 100 now is a profile that mostly only needs health to climb. 24 more months of health is inherently a longshot for any pitcher, but that is most of all that is between him and a Top 50 ranking a year from now, and a Top 20 ranking another year after that. I don't really believe Texas has anything to do with that, but not sure all Texans I know would agree. I'm very content with FB/CH being the draws in first year out of high school, but look forward to breaking ball emergence stories next year.
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