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OrioleDog

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Everything posted by OrioleDog

  1. Back in 30th for catcher, though it must go to an extra decimal point to distinguish our 1.2 from Seattle and Oakland (I guess we can scrutinize the Japan games to see if maybe we're better than those guys). It's a fairly hot take their Depth Charts guys have a 60/40 split in Wynns's favor over Sisco.
  2. 29th at 3B as Nunez/Ruiz beat out Hunter Dozier and Chris Owings for KC! Interestingly there, BOS/TB/NYY came in 18/19/20 with Andujar and Devers's defense holding them back.
  3. They only have Villar for 371 PA's and 0.9 fWAR at 2B so he's only about half the 30th place projection with a bunch of replacement or sub-replacement backups, and prorates to about 1.5 in 650 PA's somewhere. I'm guessing he'll get about 200 PA's of our coming 30th place SS projection.
  4. Dombrowski's gonna Dombrowski. That's not all bad as WS rings sometimes come with it. He's got a big year coming up - the Mookie benchmarks are now in place, but he's two years away and immediately Sale and Bogaerts are just below the Machado/Harper tier in their own right. Certainly when I have hopes of being better than the Red Sox in 2022, it involves one or two of their current excellent players being somewhere else. I'm probably overreading into it, but it's telling that they invested a high draft pick last year in Durbin Feltman, a Chris Ray type to contribute before the band starts to breakup.
  5. FWIW the Astros did get the bad outcome on Jonathan Singleton, didn't extend Altuve until approximately the time we did Adam Jones, and have Correa and Bregman going year to year. Corn - I gather you expect the new CBA to feature a LOT more salary going to the 0-6 class, right? I did hear the Padres honcho quoted on a local radio show saying something like by WAR about three quarters of the production and one quarter of the salary goes to 0-6, that with PED rules 32 is the new 36 and the market is sorting itself out.
  6. Really happy to see Trout keep his laundry, and join OAK in making sure HOU doesn't have it too easy as we step through our rebuild. Plus Trout-less Angels would probably have been competing with us for long term assets for 2021 on. I guess this puts Brandon Marsh in Hudson Potts and Colton Welker's footsteps as reasonably promising prospects with suddenly complicated paths on to the field as teams succeed at rostering superstars long term.
  7. I'm setting my expectation towards 2022, when Rutschman's bookend from 2020's draft can perhaps break in in May. Cobb is off the books that year if not traded beforehand, and it's the last year of Davis. It's Mancini's Arb3 year, and if we drive this board crazy and make all the good players stay at AAA all year, 2022 is a club not Arb year for Diaz and Mountcastle. At $21 million for Davis, $8 million for Mancini (being sentimental) and $15 million for 22 others in club or early Arb years, the club can spend $30M each on a hitter and a pitcher and have a payroll around $100M. For the sake of orange-colored glasses, I'll guess we'll be somewhere Trevor Bauer wants to try for 1-year and note that the 2022 SS free agent class is Lindor, Correa, Story, Seager. So I'm hoping for something like: McKenna/Mullins CF, Lindor SS, Diaz RF, Mountcastle DH, Rutschman C, Hays LF, Mancini 1B. The other infielders hit 8th/9th and we see what Bannon, Encarncion, Carmona and Hall grow into. Maybe Grenier's glove plays if it's an iffy 2022 SS like Correa or Seager. I think the odds favor getting 1 infielder you can live with out of that batch. And the top 4 pitchers ideally are Bauer, some NCAA hotshot from next summer's draft, Hall and Rodriguez. Practically it's more likely to be whoever out of Hall/Rodriguez makes it, then instead of both HS studs the #4 guy is whoever out of Kremer/Akin/Lowther makes it. Sig gets to do science lab with everyone else to see who fits 60, 85 or 110 inning roles. I have no idea what relievers will be good three months from now let alone three years from now, but you can always pick Chris Ray type guys in the middle rounds of the 2021 draft if things are gelling. I think the likeliest path to 2021 relevance is having Hudson/Mulder/Zito type things happen with the kids.
  8. And this should absolutely be someone like 38-year old Jacob DeGrom to fix his stats from last year. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out the next couple seasons, especially for mid-career guys whose longevity may depend in part on their adaptability. Jon Lester will fade away before this permeates all teams as much as I imagine it will; for Josh Hader, this kind of usage pattern may be all he ever knows. But what becomes of Kyle Hendricks? Andrew Miller probably won't have a Hall of Fame case 10 years from now, but if any Hader type can do it 110 innings for 12 years, what are they? I do think the 50 or so starters who are the best will continue in roles that look familiar for a long time, but the drama the next year or two will come as clubs try to get starters who are a bit more "established" to not freak out when this stuff happens. If they are still on the team August 1, I can see Alex Cobb and Dylan Bundy as possible 2019 cases. I'd try it with Cashner even before then.
  9. IP/start probably suffers a fast extinction as a good enough, easy to use stat if openers proliferate. To get a true measure of Tampa's bullpen burden last year, you probably have to swap out all the Stanek/Romo opens and switch in the IP figures for Yarbrough, Chirinos, etc. I get that the LI is lower, but proponents say one of the benefits is to attack the top of the lineup. Stanek is Armando Benitez and Yarbrough is Mark Hendrickson, so for Betts or Judge or Vlad, the opponent is essentially choreographing a day in the box of fast-slow-slow-fast. Or maybe Darren O'Day weird instead of the last fast.
  10. At 18 batters faced per game, maybe you only need 4 starters... What I like about the opener in combination with TTOP minimization is you can still go for 22-23 batters faced for your Yarbrough/Chirinos type guy, but you change the guys getting a 3rd look at him from Mookie Betts and JD Martinez to Brock Holt and Christian Vazquez. I think in a few cases the ceiling of our high minors SP's for the next good team are maybe 100-inning guys. Some of it is a byproduct of the Chris Archer July trade, but it was an interesting stat I hadn't heard from last season that Tampa had only TWO pitchers over 100 innings.
  11. Among alums, Jason Hammel has had a fine spring and says he wants no part of Texas AAA. His FIP''s have run in the mid-4's the last couple years while the ERA's have been high-5's. I think he's a better bet for 100ish innings of 5.25 than Wright.
  12. I think this year will play out more enjoyably the more you can pretend the AAA Championship is the real World Series. Sure Durham's pitching staff is maybe better than Baltimore's, but Norfolk may have an opportunity for a dazzling amount of raw talent for AAA by year's end. My freshman year of college the basketball team was on the bubble, missed, but then won the NIT with a young team. I believe that competitive experience was much more valuable for them the next three years than trying to eke out a 5/12 game. Everybody who matters can get 1000 PA's from May 2020 before Opening Day 2022, and I think the experience loss this year only hurts if you have hopes of 2021 relevance, which I don't.
  13. If the 2019-2021 payroll is $200 million, and that lets us have Francisco Lindor (or any real star in 2022), is that wise budgeting or penuriousness? However short-sighted it was, the end of the last era saw high payrolls at the expense of financial resources for other vital areas. Cot's won't have a line item for Rapsodo machines or personnel, but you have to imagine the Elias-Angelos sons conversations were in part about substantial sums for those sorts of things.
  14. Reasonable minds can differ, but I've always kind of leaned on the run/arm OF equation as LF = needs to run but not throw (not as many first-to-thirds, more RH batters putting plays in your zone), RF = needs to throw but not run, CF = needs both. I think I picked it up from a Historical Abstract. FWIW by that measure, Mullins's is a LF profile, assuming he isn't the best CF on the team.
  15. A DOB review: Old Young Guys: Mullins 10.1.1994 / Hays 7.5.1995 Young Young Guys: Diaz 10.7.1996 / Mountcastle 2.18.1997 (McKenna 2.14.1997 - nearly a birthday twin) With Mullins I was easily of the mindset no 7th year games are needed because he'll be too old by then. Diaz/Mountcastle I hope they make it tough but I feel like go win the AAA championship - I think May 1, 2020 debuts and keeping control of their 2026 is probably good business. I hope to be relevant again in 2022 and see whether they have 1100 or 1250 PA's of experience by that Opening Day as a distinction without a difference. Hays is in-between - a little closer to Mullins's age than Diaz/Mountcastle. I don't think I have a dog in the fight.
  16. To Moose's point about being the man, I wonder if he'd make a good Opener against RH heavy clubs. He made a lot of progress against lefties the last 2 years, but I still think of him somewhat as a platoon split guy. We have a lot of early games with the very right handed Yankees, and I think four clean 1st innings against Judge/Stanton/Sanchez would probably do more to get his trade value trending the right way than whatever save opportunities crop up. Just pitch him the first and last games of each 3 game series.
  17. For Givens and Bundy, suggested by ZIPS creator/kind of sort of Oriole fan Dan Szymborski. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-hopefully-not-terrible-spring-trade-ideas/ He's oddly specific in return suggestions, and I think/hope Bundy/Givens will earn more market value than that. He also has Indians DH ideas. Now that Adam Jones isn't part of their OF/DH chart and HANLEY RAMIREZ is possibly the starting DH for a heavy division favorite, it does make me wonder if that is one place Trumbo could make himself a fit with some early season slugging. Cleveland did have an okay Jay Bruce rental experience in recent years. I do think the pre-Opening Day trade possibility is an improbable but not impossible thing that could happen that would generate the most excitement before the draft. It's been 5 years since Preller bought Kimbrel right before Opening Day, and the Padres are in the right position for something like that again if there is an opportunity. Their current pitching is so immature/poor that buying 6 months of guys does probably have considerable marginal value for their year-too-early wildcard hopes above getting 3 months come July, assuming their first half pitching doesn't completely sink them. I think due diligence for both Preller and Elias involves some communication these next two weeks.
  18. Kiley McDaniel freshly pegs Vaughn a solid #2 in the draft and floats a better Peter Alonso comp, but also labels Rutschman "well ahead". https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-2019-draft-rankings-updates/
  19. Me and my Little got to enjoy the benefit of his and Audie's generosity - one of my few suite experiences at Camden. I was living in Seattle at the time of the trade, and remember following here Andy's protracted Bedard percolations, enlivened by Jones breaking a little bit of the news himself, forcing the clubs into a bit of a deny/deny/deny posture the final couple days of negotiations. I imagine Arizona punsters will have some fodder with SimplyAJ10 following AJ Pollock in CF.
  20. The podcast highlighted how Vaughn's numbers exceed even Kris Bryant's, and greatly exceed Bregman and Senzel's among recent NCAA hitters of great repute. They specifically mentioned how odd he'd be for the Orioles given our spot in the cycle - some scouts think he'll break in next year. I guess college baseball is a bit like hoops where the early non-conference schedule can be soft, so while they paid some respect to who Cal has played, they were also highlighting the next few weeks as the competition picks up. I hadn't realized how pitching poor this year's lot is - the report was the top 10 are all hitters.
  21. Haven't been able to listen yet, but I see Baseball America has as today's podcast topic if Vaughn is indeed a candidate for the #1 pick.
  22. OrioleDog

    The Rangers

    I've learned a good deal new about them from BP's essay this year and the just published FG team preview podcast. I think I'd been mis-apprehending a bad bet at contention with the Lynn/Shelby Miller/Asdrubal type signings, but even with them I think they'll be full-scale rebuilding on the same general timeline as us. They do open a new ballpark next year, so the vets are a little more understandable business-wise. What was new was learning about a pitching innovation with their high school draft picks of the last 1-2 years. In their "de-load" program, June HS pitcher draft picks get a 12-month plan leading up to a June debut the next year, they don't get to pitch at all and have a kind of gap year learning about baseball, injury prevention, the pro lifestyle, etc. Built-in is a bit of an expectation that at 16/17 to get highlighted in the showcases, the kids have already done too much too soon. The Rangers front office types quoted in the essay likened it to job training. I guess teams have long done this kind of stuff for kids coming up from Latin America, but I'd never heard of American kids getting that type of experience. It feels a little European soccer academy-ish, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Certainly in Hall and Rodriguez we've got a couple of HS studs who have gone right on to the hill and thrived so far. As we climb out of the AL cellar, I've looked around for moments where I could say "I think we're now better off than X", and have looked to the Rangers as an early mark. They might not be so easy as I thought.
  23. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/47584/rubbing-mud-imagining-the-next-mlb-expansion/ An overview piece at BP today. Assume for a moment the 32-team structure is an exact NFL replica - 1st round bye for 2 best records, 2 wildcard teams. Do you think going 8x4 the league keeps the Yankees and Red Sox together? Tampa's the most distant of the current AL East from division mates, but the Dolphins are AFC East and Ravens Central. Would you root for the Orioles to be in or out of the AL East? Or is it imaginable the Yanks/Red Sox would split so they could both win divisions/get byes. AL "Far" North: Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Minnesota AL Metro: New York, Baltimore, Tampa, (Charlotte??) AL Central: Cleveland, Chicago, Houston, Texas AL West: LA, Seattle, Oakland, Kansas City (I'm shoehorning the Royals West to curate my Astros-Rangers rivalry) I guess if Portland/Las Vegas instead the new AL team, the West is then very natural, Royals go back to Central, and Cleveland or Chicago comes into "Metro".
  24. Agreed. Trumbo's durability has been a traditional plus. He had over 3000 minor league PA's before his 4000 major league ones, and his tank is running out of gas. I'm cool with conserving energy and would be fascinated to know the intricacies of Sig's Fatigue Countermeasures recommendations on him. I imagine he wants/needs about 50 PA's and can get them in just about any 10-day period.
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