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OrioleDog

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Everything posted by OrioleDog

  1. Ornery to still be in the Sally? From a competitive standpoint, hopefully he'll be content pushing for a league championship - I always feel like making Delmarva is a good sign for last year's high school seniors. I think now that they've sent him back to Delmarva to open the 2nd half - I'd like to see him finish there, and if he blows the league away the full 5 months, maybe he earns consideration for a double jump next spring. The Keys have made a quick hop into last place to start the second half, so will perhaps lag Delmarva a bit in July/August environment.
  2. Whether they are teammates at Norfolk or Baltimore, it is a potentially serious challenge for the clubbies to decide what to stitch on the jersey if they decide not to let number stand alone. By the time 3 of 6 first name letters are needed to distinguish, I think you just have to go whole name.
  3. I expect he'll cross paths with first Rodriguez and then DL Hall as he goes, and that he beats them to Baltimore. If they went to college, Rodriguez would be a freshman and DL Hall a sophomore, so Rutschman has a year or two on them, and even more pedigree. I'm guessing he will have almost a year to see how Mookie Betts and Vlad hit in real life firsthand before he starts shepherding our hottest arms through trying to get them out. He seems so low variance that barring injury I'm almost positive we're looking at a May 10, 2021 debut give or take a few weeks depending on how well he fares in the minors next year. Wieters was a May 29th his year. I think just like with Diaz this spring Bowie v. Norfolk was the interesting call to watch - next spring it is Frederick v. Bowie.
  4. I expect competitive irrelevance in 2020-2021, but haven't given up on 2022 yet. Austin Riley was a 2015 CBA pick who perhaps could have been a passable contributor for the Braves last year as I hope Henderson might be for good 2022 Orioles. But he could also still be scuffling with AA pitchers then. I have a fair idea what Rutschman, Diaz, etc. will be then, even a middling sense about what in the aggregate our basket of pitchers is reasonably likely to become, but Henderson could be anything.
  5. On Machado's return day, here's my stretch hope for the next infield wunderkind. Manny drafted 2010, debuted 8.9.2012. I'll give Gunnar an extra 50% - 3 years is still fast for a HS hitter. Can he debut by 8.9.2022? I do see him pretty quickly as one of the real big swing states for 2022 relevance - not as much as whether we have a pitcher or two threatening to join Adley in the All-Star game that year, but relatively important as INFIELD looks like the weakest part of the next good team from today's perspective. As much as we're getting slow played on every good player in the org right now, he's the palate cleanser that I expect to have every chance to go as fast as he can handle.
  6. I seriously doubt it is what he wants to do, but there would be a lot of beauty in Mussina following him as analyst for the next quarter century. This seems like a step in letting go, but I hope he can hang in a part-time role at least until the next good team gets here.
  7. I think if we don't get one of these next two, speculation around the 21-loss record starts to build as a story next week. I believe April is when AAAA go-getters profile better, while they are on the adrenaline rush of their lives and some others are still getting into the swing of things. It was always likely there would be a major streak at some point this year. While we were steadily losing series to a basket of the other teams almost as bad as us - the Tigers, Giants, Rangers, and Blue Jays - I generally had a feeling that if we were playing teams any good at all with any heart, a streak was near at hand. Boston and Oakland started it - this series is the last breather for a bit. If these next two maybe push it to 12, the Padres, Indians and Rays are next - all solid or better teams fighting for real stuff. Standard disclaimer that nothing at the MLB level matters much this year, but I'd hate for Rutschman's cap tipping at Camden to also be like Fantastic Fans night.
  8. Woohoo! 2019 - the year AA call-ups are like MLB ones will be 20-25 months hence. I do draw a good bit of comfort from having the All-Star game starters at both A levels.
  9. For the 3-4 months of enjoyment during the draft run-up, there is a world of difference between #1 and everything else. Only there can you daydream about anyone, and daydreaming's an essential survival skill for the long winter.
  10. Scanning the standings/run differentials for how we've opened a bit of a "lead" for worst record, and expecting that surely we'd let in the most runs of anyone, it caught me by surprise to see Seattle has allowed 20 more runs than we have. They do have 4 more games played, so our average is a little worse, but there is at least one overall run prevention rival.
  11. OrioleDog

    Keegan Akin 2019

    Here's a nuance I don't have down pat - it wouldn't cost us an option in 2019 if we called him up and he stayed up, right? I think I may have found the favorite for "leads team in September innings pitched".
  12. I probably mentioned him as a stretch goal last summer, though I certainly would have expected to include Givens or Gausman with Schoop to try to reach that ballpark. Or perhaps more likely Gausman and Givens as I remember the Brewers interest in Schoop after already having Shaw and Moustakas surprising - most of last July I doubt I would have imagined them part of the Schoop market. Seeing Tatis atop that list and about to graduate reminded me of the "Pick 10 Guys" thread last summer when I think we debated Yelich v. Tatis as the last guy in behind 9 more obvious ones - those two guys are keeping that one interesting.
  13. In the spirit of enjoying the shiny new toy, I'll also note he'll bump up to #8 this weekend as Fernando Tatis passes 130 at-bats. They have him ahead of the downgraded Kyle Tucker, MLB wunderkind Austin Riley, and his 1-1 predecessor Casey Mize. Of the fifteen FV 60's they pass out, he's in the upper third of that grouping with Adell, Trammell, Hiura and Mize. Next year could play out as a quest to ascend the Wander Franco Mt. Everest of prospectdom. I'll be curious to see if Delmarva's success this year is an Adley magnet - in a vacuum he could probably handle getting his feet wet in Frederick.
  14. Debuts at #9 on Fangraphs fresh update to Overall MLB Prospect Rankings. The next four Orioles clump between 67 and 119, and beyond the Top 5 they have Stowers leap-frogging Akin/Lowther and all the other candidates for our third best pitching prospect. FWIW they initially give Stowers a 45 FV, and Gunnar just 40+
  15. It just hit me he could be to the next good Orioles team what Brian McCann is to this year's Braves - a team HOF'er with a second act in a reserve role. Diaz and Hays are the two clubhouse leaders for pre-FA regulars. With Mullins fading fast, McKenna bats right also before Stowers is a LHH OF for a future team. 2022 Nick Markakis v. 2022 Ryan McKenna - would you bet on Nick to hold the strong side of a platoon there? And if we just take Grenier's glove and bat him 9th, he'll need pinch hitters. Even if McKenna is way better than Nick after two more years as I hope he will be, a guy like Markakis could make a nice 4th outfielder behind those 3 starters. Agree playing time is all, and next year's 26th man helps a little with jobs. NL DH and/or 32-team expansion before it is too late for Nick are the bigger possibilities for hitters like him if they want to go on as long as they can. In the short term, Snitker gave a discouraging update on Inciarte's recovery the other day, so I think clear sailing to the All-Star break now.
  16. I'm perhaps overly armchair psychoanalyzing, but beyond injury, I can imagine him being bored and knowing the score. I'd rather he be fully healthy and crushing of course, but he and Mountcastle are the two high minors guys young enough and good enough that securing an extra year of club control could mean something. I'd hoped for a AAA MVP candidacy, but still predict he is beastly next year in spring training. I had senioritis pretty bad too back in the day.
  17. I hope the apparently close relationship between the front offices leads to a fruitful Givens trade - here is a contender's bullpen that's had a raft of injuries.
  18. No joy in Chapel Hill - Tanner Burns got the dream spot for Super Regionals, the deciding Game 3 to get his Auburn Tigers to Omaha, and the offense goes and puts up 13 runs in the Top of the 1st. https://www.espn.com/college-baseball/boxscore?gameId=391611096
  19. Hoping he'll revive a bit this week - at home and nothing but righties (not that he's been a platoon split guy). Ender Inciarte seems to be struggling with an Alex Cobb-like lumbar strain, but I think he'll be back at some point. Will be watching tonight's line up - yesterday wunderkind Austin Riley got Nick's regular #5 spot as he had a day off - every spot in the order is 18 PA/year.
  20. While I hope next year's Mountcastle/Diaz/Hays/Akin/Kremer batch will flash enough to get us out of prohibitive favorite for worst record in MLB 3 years in a row next season, Kumar Rocker's no-hitter is the kind of transcendent thunder bolt I hope some of the current NCAA sophomores provide in the CWS and going into next year.
  21. I haven't given up hope for 2022 relevance yet with Rutschman the pick. That's the first season I feel is realistic for the last three #1 picks to be contributors (I won't say no if Grayson goes all Jose Fernandez but you can never plan for that), and by then the eventual supporting cast of Mountcastle, Diaz, Kremer, Akin, Lowther etc should be past the worst of transitioning to the show. Heck, if next spring's 1-1 is in the position Casey Mize is in by June 9, 2021, the second half 2021 Orioles could give some people some problems. Once whatever the baseball gods give you in your "Strasburg/Harper" moment are on the field, your window is at least cracked. The 2021/2022 offseason litmus test I'll be rooting for to develop is that Baltimore is a reasonable destination for one of that year's top free agents ala Padres Machado. The domino after that would be Gunnar being ready for 3B for 2022's wildcard push just like Manny in 2012. I'll daydream about the Lindor/Correa/Seager/Story/Baez SS group until we've missed all of them, but with my orangiest glasses I'll chase a wildcard in the summer of 2022 with pitching like "Casey Mize character"/Hall/Rodriguez/Means/"best of everyone else" and a lineup like: SS Lindor, C Rutschman, 1B Mountcastle DH Mancini, RF Diaz, CF Hays, LF "best of everyone else", 2B Bannon/Hall, 3B Gunnar If all the shortstops go, you may be able to live with Gunnar there a bit and then you can use the team's "A" salary slot on an easier position (Freeman/Rizzo/Arenado/Scherzer/Verlander?). At mid-2010's levels, the 2022 Orioles might even be able to afford two salaries on that tier with so many pre-arb guys. Unless Elias can really pull a rabbit out of the hat with a Bundy or Mancini trade, I think that's everyone in my mind beyond medium guys you just toss into a "best of" player development's next couple years work.
  22. I wouldn't be surprised if it skews a little later. I think his ETA is circa April 15, 2021 barring injury and if I was Elias and didn't want to look too bad next summer, I think one month this year is as good as two, especially if I didn't want to send him to the Arizona Fall League, which is occasionally in play for 1st round NCAA guys their teams want to fast track. On the other side of that coin, I would be pumped to have Gunnar in Aberdeen most of this season. He can use every rep he can get to have a shot at becoming a sometime in 2022 contributor.
  23. I know, right - it is a marker of my middle age to now remember stadiums being born and dying. I think the Braves have beaten the Rangers to the "two since Camden Yards" opened trick.
  24. http://mlb.mlb.com/fan_forum/podcasts/index.jsp?c_id=mlb&podcast=full_account For the 10th anniversary of 2009's draft (Strasburg, Trout, Goldschmidt, etc), MLB introduced a miniseries of long form podcasts on the biggest stories with the benefit of a decade's' hindsight. So far I've only listened to the Luhnow one as Elias/Sig were in STL with him at that time (the best anecdote from that one for us is that Sig, it says, "literally" pounded the table for Paul Goldschmidt), but I'm sure the Trout one will have plenty on how it happened. Luhnow's quote in the one focused on him mentioned they had him near the top with Shelby Miller who they actually took, but that as the round was unfolding, the buzz was Trout had a "big number".
  25. Also, just to declare my bias, I'm probably running hogwild with daydreams here about Rutschman being for my 4-year old what Eddie was to me. Rutschman has 20ish pounds on him (B-Ref has Eddie at 6-2, 190), but notwithstanding the haircut, that's what I flash on optimistically watching Rutschman in the batters box, switch hitting and all. I wouldn't say no to the kiddo having a Johnny Bench experience.
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