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About nsw

  • Rank
    Plus Member since 9/06

Personal Information

  • Location
    Davis, CA (near Sacramento)
  • Homepage
  • Interests
    Family, golf, drag racing, baseball.
  • Occupation
    Feeding family.
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Jim Palmer's Memory
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Sidney Ponson's Gut
  1. How about, "Jones acted in rational self-interest, as many of us would."
  2. nsw

    Boy, do WE stink!

    I am excited that there are signs that the Oriole organization is waking up to modernity. We got lucky in our multi-year overperformance, and I loved it. But we all saw the train wreck coming; the surprise was that the piper payment was delayed for so long. The road forward includes investing in Latin America, putting more money into scouting and player development, paying attention to advanced metrics/prediction models. A seismic shift was needed, and we're getting it. We might also be seeing an ownership change if we are REALLY lucky. Cross your fingers and hope because it will be hard to ---- > Trust the Process.
  3. nsw

    Manny probably going to the NL

    This. Trade Manny right now. Perhaps the thinking is that we need to wait to see if more teams can be drawn in as they assess their records/chances nearer the deadline, perhaps they want to see Manny as an O's All-Star once more, but we could end up with bupkis if Manny gets injured. Just think of Britton last season.
  4. I had forgotten about it being 4 years. Ouch! There's got to be a pony in here somewhere...
  5. nsw

    Starting a Pool

    32 games out at the break. First pick, ya'll!
  6. nsw

    Epic Fail

    Thanks for pulling this together. It does help us see how widespread the "unluckiness" is with our squad. I caution against comparing percentages, however. Example: Davis is at -42% and Brach is right behind at -38%. However using a broader metric, Davis is at -1.8 WAR and Brach is at 0.5. Brach is still quite useful, whereas Davis is not. Adam Dunn's -3.0 WAR in 496 PA in 2011 would seem to be our "target" for record-breaking non-achievement. Finally, a reason to watch the games!
  7. I've been wearing O's caps here in California for 25 years now. When people ask, "Are you from Baltimore?" I reply, "Of course, you don't think anyone would CHOOSE to be an Orioles fan, do you?" 🤣
  8. And I'm so old I got that joke!
  9. nsw

    Has there ever been a player at Davis level

    You nailed it. And gallows humor is pretty much all we have left. I would love to know how far "productive" players can fall (in terms of dismal performance over a certain # of plate appearances) at age 32 and still recover their heights. The only thing I could remember was David Ortiz's half-season swoon in 2009 at age 34 before being awesome for 6 more years. Pretty sure that's not a great comp, though..lol. Davis has been declining for 1.5 years plus. I am fine running Davis out there until the All-Star break and seeing if he can fix himself, but after that I would love to see us eat sunk cost and move on.
  10. nsw

    Has there ever been a player at Davis level

    Davis isn't giving money back, and he shouldn't be pressured to. The owners and the union have decided on a low initial salary pre-arb and then big, guaranteed money scores if you can stick around, even if you're not worth it any more. This hamstrings teams who make costly bets on the wrong guys, like the O's with Davis. But the idea is that you'll get some guys cheaper than you "should," and you'll overpay some guys. For example, Manny was paid $500K in 2015 and produced 6.6 WAR (wins were priced at $9.6m per in 2015, so $63 MILLION of surplus value). And that was for one year! He did the same thing in 2016! Nobody put pressure on Angelos to pay Manny an extra $50 million for performance... You win some, you lose some.. and our beloved O's paid the wrong guy the big bucks.
  11. nsw

    It's Time to Sell; How Far Would YOU Go?

    Sell, sell, sell. Wait too long and watch Bundy get hurt a la Britton and lose value. We are not a couple players away, we are in a teardown situation. Manny, Schoop, Bundy, it all goes. Keep Sisco and that's it. Now all this supposes that there is a market for what we're selling. We aren't privy to info about what returns might be available and we never will be, but I sure pray that our front office/ownership finally admits that we're a .400 team without the rising prospects to be a .600 team. We need more upside potential in the system, and that means selling what we got for prospects and drafting high for a couple of years.
  12. I had to listen to part of the YES feed on MLB.TV since the MASN feed was glitchy this morning. The Yankee announcers went on and on about how great Buck was and how he is one of the deepest thinkers in the game. I am a huge fan of Buck and hope we keep him. I have found myself second guessing little things he does during the course of seasons, but taken in full, he is an A+.
  13. nsw

    vs. YANKEES, 4/06

    That was so cool! Amazing athleticism all around.
  14. nsw

    Welp, Are We Officially Worried About Brach?

    Lot of bad luck here and some very good ABs by the Twins. Not worried.
  15. I am very pleased by this signing. I like Cobb to begin with, and if we aren't going to burn it down, we have to "go for it" (Orioles lackadaisical-style) this year.