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nadecir

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nadecir last won the day on April 11 2011

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About nadecir

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    Plus Member Since 02/05

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  • Location
    Columbia
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    http://
  • Interests
    Sports, drinking and other manly behavior
  • Occupation
    Geek
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Nick Markakis or whomever is getting flamed for a bad performance currently
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Davey J

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  1. nadecir

    Manny Machado Appreciation Thread

    There is nearly a zero possibility that Machado resigns with the Orioles. And quite frankly, making a large investment in Machado for the Orioles this offseason is just a waste of money. It's going to a number of years before the Orioles are competitive again. Does Machado really want to spend the next few years on a bad Orioles team, and do the Orioles even want to spend $30 million investing in him with a bad supporting cast?
  2. nadecir

    Machado Trade Expectations

    One New York writers view of the Yankees' pursuit of Machado: ===== Cashman — like all seasoned negotiators — attempts to create leverage by convincing the other side he is not feeling huge pressure to do a deal. When he actually has that leverage, Cashman has followed a similar path to acquisition. Namely, he makes offers he can tolerate, then lets the ticking clock work, and if teams have nowhere else to go, they often turn back to the Yankees. This is how the Yanks landed Abreu and Stanton, for example. The Orioles pretty much must trade Machado in the next two-plus weeks. He is in his walk year, Baltimore is not going to re-sign him, and the Orioles can do better than a compensation pick after the first round of the 2019 draft, which is all they would receive by giving him the qualifying offer and having him sign for more than $50 million elsewhere as a free agent. But because the Orioles held Machado to his walk year, his value has dropped below his talent. Teams have generally become more hesitant to include blue-chippers for a rental, particularly a positional rental. But with several teams such as the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Yankees and others involved, the Orioles will attempt to play one against the other to improve offers. Even in these situations, particularly as Hal Steinbrenner’s ownership has become more entrenched, the Yanks have rarely blinked. My gut on where the Yankees are right now is this: They are coming to peace that the high-end starter they crave and would pay lavishly for is not going to be available. For protection and depth, they will still almost certainly obtain a starter from the Michael Fulmer, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, etc., bin. Without the ace type, the Yanks will also prioritize protecting the rotation even more by adding another high-end reliever to what already is arguably the majors’ best pen. The Yanks will look to shorten games with every starter not named Luis Severino. Therefore, it is possible if the Yankees trade with the Orioles, it would be for Zach Britton. But that doesn’t mean it is impossible they land Machado. No one saw the Yanks coming for A-Rod, and they were mostly bystanders for Stanton until a week before the deal. However, if Cashman’s history is the guide, he will make an offer, then wait to see if the market collapses and the clock ticking toward a deadline motivates a must-act team back to the Yankees. https://nypost.com/2018/07/12/yankees-wont-blink-first-in-manny-machado-sweepstakes/
  3. nadecir

    Machado Trade Expectations

    I see no good reason for the Orioles to play Machado any more, or even wait to trade him any longer than necessary. Not only is there risk of injury during a game, he can get injured off the field. Something simple like an auto accident is a possibility. Tell the teams to give you the best offer now, and pick the best one very soon. What's to be gained by putting Machado on the field in an Orioles uniform any longer? There's only risk of an injury at this point. A Machado injury now would set the Orioles rebuilding back significantly.
  4. nadecir

    Machado Trade Expectations

    The Cubs are out of the running for Machado, and the Yankees reports of interest are "overblown". The 3 NL teams are the the most serious suitors. ----- The Los Angeles Dodgers, Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks are the leading candidates to acquire Machado, a high-ranking Orioles executive said, with the New York Yankees’ interest overblown. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/07/10/cubs-brewers-manny-machado-rumors/771654002/
  5. nadecir

    Chris Davis’ defense

    The Orioles defense is just historically bad everywhere. If you are going to bad, might as well be really, really bad I guess. ------ Unfortunately for Showalter’s decidedly not division-winning 2018 squad, these Orioles are mind-bogglingly bad at catching balls put in play. Orioles fielders have combined for negative-84 runs of defensive value compared with the average team, per the advanced stat defensive runs saved. That is already one of the 10 worst totalssince 2002 (which is how far back DRS data extends), and because DRS is a counting stat and Baltimore’s season is just about half over, the O’s should blow by the current record. At their current pace, they will finish the season with negative-160.1 DRS—40.1 worse than the previous record holder, the 2005 Yankees. https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/7/5/17536062/baltimore-orioles-worst-defense-manny-machado-adam-jones
  6. nadecir

    Angelos Has Sold the O's to You. What's Your Plan?

    First, hold a press conference to announce to the fans that the Orioles are going to rebuild over the next few years. Tell the fans there will be some lean years in the meantime, but there is now a plan in place to build for the future. Instruct the front office to trade any assets on the team that are viable as soon as possible. Replace these traded veteran players with more inexpensive younger players to fill out the major league roster Then hire the best GM I can find with experience in building successful organizations using analytical methods. Invest to build the best analytic team in all of baseball. The focus of this analytic team would be to build a platform that finds the best young baseball prospects around the world. This new analytic department will partner with a university that has preeminent experts in statistical sports forecasting and has experience with artificial intelligence for these purposes. For the next years, run a lean MLB payroll as we build this world class analytical team. Their job is to find the best prospects anywhere with the highest chance of returning significant value. No long term free agent signings for the next few years. Also, apply the best practices that we discover with this new analytical department in developing prospects throughout the entire organization. This will be a long term plan, however it's a good way to lay the foundation for success for future years. When it becomes to our front office clearly evident that we have a chance to compete again, invest in free agents and use the restocked farm system to acquire a team that can win a World Series.
  7. nadecir

    Machado booed at home

    This news can't help his trade value. Can this season get much worse?
  8. It sounds like you don't know this, but Scott Boras relies very heavily on analytics on his presentation of his free agents. This article below gives you a feel for what Boras does in terms of analyzing player data, and how MLB teams rely on analytics to determine player value. ==== When agent Scott Boras was selling free-agent pitcher Max Scherzer to teams this winter, he had an information edge at his disposal: a $7 million computer system and accompanying database operated by two-dozen staffers, including numerous engineers from MIT and other elite universities. Boras’s team presented suitors with a nearly 50-page binder on Scherzer. One of the concoctions within was “The Pitching Odometer,” a system that attempts to measure a pitcher’s wear and tear by monitoring workload rather than age; Boras’s team had conducted a study that showed that throwing at least 185 innings per season between the ages of 26 and 29, as Scherzer had, “seems to be a footprint for durability,” portending longevity deep into one’s thirties. Boras also noted that Scherzer’s career strikeout rate — 9.6 per nine innings, the highest among active starters with at least 1,200 innings entering the season — was the result of his “pitch variation rather than raw velo.” As MLB franchises have begun dedicating more resources to in-house analytics, the dynamic for marketplace negotiations has shifted. Few agencies are able to woo teams with stats that those teams don’t already possess, making Boras and his considerable investment an exception in the industry. Today, only the largest and most financially robust agencies can afford to seek data that clubs don’t already possess. And even then, it’s not always enough. “I think there’s less selling of your players because of technology,” one competing agent says. “[Teams] know more about our player than we do. They’ve got 20 more people working on the stats and sabermetrics.” http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-agents-shifting-analytics-edge-scott-boras-caa/
  9. When you start the season with 3 Rule V players and some non-roster invitees counted on to make significant contributions, a team is in trouble. When has an MLB team ever competed successfully with 3 Rule V players on the roster at one time? It didn't take much foresight to see the Orioles were not competing this season. It doesn't matter one bit what the Orioles want for Machado. What matters is what teams are willing to give up for him. The Orioles had at least 8 offers for Machado this offseason. I guarantee you the best one was significantly better than a compensatory draft pick. The market for Machado is the market, no matter what the Orioles front office wants for him. During the offseason, Machado was worth more to an acquiring team than he is now. Machado would have been on the roster for the entire season, and the acquiring team would get a compensatory draft pick when he left via free agency. Teams who made offers for Machado could add additional value to their trade packages given these two benefits versus acquiring him during the season. What fans don't get nowadays is how much analytics rule the baseball world. We live in an era of defensive shifts tailored to individual batter's historical tendencies, and these shifts can even change based on the count on a hitter. Pitchers know how batter's respond to every pitch they've seen, including speed, spin and drop rates. Baseball free agents are evaluated objectively by their value added in all phases of the game versus their contract demands and taking in mind both aging curves for similar players and payroll luxury tax implications Top prospects are highly valued because they can be extreme bargains during the years they are under cost control. Olney and Ravech are correct, Machado value goes down every single game he plays to an acquiring team. Baseball front offices are valuing Machado objectively based on the number of wins he can provide over the remaining course of the seasons versus the remaining salary he has left this year. Good MLB teams today rely on analytics today to make any major decision with their team. Ignoring analytics, and making emotional organizational moves like over paying in free agency or overpaying to acquire a player in trade get an MLB GM an express ticket out of baseball and a tee time on the golf course with Bill Bavasi.
  10. @24fps has it right from a mission standpoint. A competitive team should be the goal of a MLB front office. However, a smart front office knows when the odds of competing in a season are very low, and make the appropriate moves with that stark realization in mind. The Orioles front office should have seen this offseason that the Orioles had little chance of competing in the AL East this season. When you are counting on 3 rule V picks and some non-roster invitees to make significant contribution on your opening day roster, it's obvious you are not in a position to compete. An MLB front office is paid to evaluate their own team with objective eyes, and the Orioles should have known the team's roster did not compare to the Yankees or Red Sox, or even compare to most of the other teams in the American League. Knowing that the Orioles couldn't compete this season, the Orioles should have traded Manny Machado for the best offer in the offseason when he had a compensation draft pick attached along with his full value to the acquiring team for the entire year. The Orioles should not have given multi-year contracts to free agent pitchers, both over 30, and given up a draft pick too. And handing a division rival a compensation pick to boot with one of signings to boot. Having a lousy team is bad enough, but the only way to make it even worse is making making harmful organizational moves for the long term at the same time in a woefully futile attempt at "going for it". At least tanking teams that admit it give their fans hope for the long run that there is a plan in place to make the team better.
  11. There's a direct relationship between teams being horrible and how many wins it will take to make the wild card. There are going to be some very, very good teams this year, and some epically bad teams this year. Parity in baseball has been thrown right out the window. You can blame teams tanking for some of it. Or in the case of some teams (ahem), you can blame bad management.
  12. nadecir

    Dan Connolly: Orioles Must Be Willing To Make A Trade

    The Orioles will never sell high if they think they are competing for a wild card every single year. That fallacy is the biggest problem the Orioles have, IMHO. Because the Orioles think they can compete every single season, they make a many short term decisions that hurt the future prospects of the team. The Orioles have no problem signing long term, costly free agents deals and giving up future draft picks. The Orioles rarely sell high on any of their players. They keep players too long (like Machado and Britton) when it's plain to see they are going to lose them anyway. The Orioles are completely willing to trade for short term veterans to help them try to compete, while giving up decent prospects from our farm system. All of this only makes sense if we have a realistic shot of competing. No team in baseball, even the Yankees, have a realistically shot at competing every single season. The well run organizations admit it and plan for the future, while the teams who don't admit pay a price for their short term moves. Until the Orioles admit they can't compete every single season, it will be very difficult to rebuild this team in the right manner. At some point, the Orioles front office is going to have to admit the obvious and say we are not competing for the next few seasons. It's okay to give up the likes of Bundy and Gausman to build for the future. Selling a player high is good, and much, much better than selling a player a year too late.
  13. nadecir

    Most disappointing player?

    Contending teams have much better options as Rule V pickups, even as placeholders. To show you how much value our Rule V pickups had, every other team in baseball could have selected two of our Rule V pickups and they all passed. One rule V pickup on a contending team is uncommon, 3 is a sure sign of mediocrity.
  14. nadecir

    Most disappointing player?

    Here's an easy way to tell if your team is not competing this year. If it has 3 rule V players on its opening day roster, it's extremely unlikely to be competitive that season. If it counts on some non-roster invitees to make significant contributions, it is unlikely to compete. Throw in a bad defense, an aging roster, and strong Yankees and Red Sox teams, and it would have taken a miracle for the Orioles to compete in 2018. Fans usually overestimate their own teams chances. The professionals running the team should have known better, and started the rebuild in the off-season.
  15. nadecir

    Most disappointing player?

    Maybe he does have time to get his ERA respectable for the length of his deal. But then again, maybe he's just starting his inevitable aging decline. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-aging-curves-starters-and-relievers/ Signing free agents Cobb and Cashner was just a silly move for a team that had no real chance of competing. They could end up being additional financial boat anchors for the next few years on a team that's already sunk on the ocean floor.
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