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nadecir

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nadecir last won the day on April 11 2011

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About nadecir

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    Plus Member Since 02/05

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  • Location
    Columbia
  • Homepage
    http://
  • Interests
    Sports, drinking and other manly behavior
  • Occupation
    Geek
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Nick Markakis or whomever is getting flamed for a bad performance currently
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Davey J

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  1. nadecir

    How Long is the Road to Contention?

    The Orioles are 25 games behind the 4th place team in the AL East, the Blue Jays. The Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays have far superior farm systems than the Orioles. The Red Sox might win 110 games this season. Unfortunately, the question to ask is how many years will it take for the Orioles to get out of the AL East basement. Contention seems too far away to even hazard a guess.
  2. nadecir

    Grade the Gausman Deal

    Who knows maybe the Braves discovered something with Gausman by having him pitch out of the stretch. Here's his splits in 2018: in 2018 with bases empty: K/9: 6.36 FIP: 5.30 HR/9: 1.9 In 2018 with baserunners: K/9: 8.62 FIP: 3.27 HR/9: 0.72
  3. nadecir

    Grade the Gausman Deal

    The Braves have Gausman pitching out of the stretch for the entire game now. In the last two games, he's thrown 192 pitches - 133 for strikes with two good performances.
  4. There are times in your life when your favorite teams are not going to be good. It reminds of the Billy Bob Thornton line from Bad Santa: "Looks like someone messed with my Advent calendar. What are you talking about? Let me see. Nobody messed with it. It looks fine. There's a candy corn in this one. Well, they can't all be winners, can they?" Find the little things you can enjoy with Orioles baseball over the next few years. And when the Orioles get better, remember to celebrate the heck out of the good times again.
  5. nadecir

    Dan says "tear it completely down"

    This is the way the rating of baseball players works for the average fan: The players you just got rid of were not that good really, and the players/prospects you acquire are better than what everyone else thinks. It's always going to be that way; it's just the nature of being a fan. 🙂
  6. nadecir

    Dan says "tear it completely down"

    Dan has always been a "quantity over quality" type GM. Whether it be rule V guys, veteran pickups in the off-season, or players acquired with trades, Duquette's mentality is to pick up many players with the hope that a few will be pleasant surprises. This philosophy has worked out sometimes, but as shown this year, this philosophy has a risk of really absymal results. I would prefer he mix in a few high tested prospects with these trades, but what we got should have been expected. We received a lot of mid-range prospects with the idea that a few will turn out to better than currently expected.
  7. The analysis by Corcoran in 2016 was pretty good at forecasting exactly what happened to Chris Davis. In another earlier article about Chris Davis, Corcoran says: "The question then becomes: If Davis is struggling to make contact now, when his bat speed is near its peak, what happens when his bat inevitably slows down with age? The answer is unlikely to be a gradual decline and more likely to be a quick collapse in his value " If the Orioles would have taken his other piece of advice in early 2016, fans would be feeling a bit better about the Orioles future today: " If the Orioles were dead set on spending $150 million this off-season, the best way to spend it would have been on an extension for Machado, whose age-26 season is on the other side of his scheduled free agency. " Your comment about the subjectivity of the analysis from Corcoran gets to the important point about analytics Data analytics is a science. Baseball executives today have an enormous amount of data at their disposal to use to run their organizations. The key to success is to collect all the data you can and analyze it to find meaningful patterns that allows you to forecast better. What data is important, and what data should be ignored; that's the heart of regression analysis which forms the foundation of this subject. One can only reasonably answer these questions by having experienced analytic personnel in your organization using state of the art tools. This requires significant investment. This foundational investment is necessary in Major League Baseball in order to be competitive today. A team can certainly be successful for a few years by using traditional methods to assign player and prospect value. But in the long run, teams with vast experience with analytics, more data, and better tools to analyze the data will invariably come out better than the other teams with little investment in analytics. It's true in baseball, and it's true in most businesses today.
  8. Here is a good example of how analytics should work in regards to valuing a player, specifically Chris Davis at the time he was signing a new contract. This was published in SI in Jan 2016, right after his new deal was signed. ===== Orioles overspend with poor long-term investment in Chris Davis By Cliff Corcoran January 16, 2016 In reality, however, the Orioles likely lost regardless of whether or not Boras and Davis actually got them to increase the value of their offer. As I wrote a month ago, Davis is very simply a bad investment. Running Davis through our What Is He Really Worth? formula produced a projected value comparable to the contract Davis received ($157.8 million over seven years), but that projection was based on a typically gentle decline which I do not believe that Davis is likely to have. Again, Davis is a player entering his age-30 season who had just two above-average major league seasons in his 20s, and those two seasons did not come consecutively. Because those above-average seasons were two of Davis’s last three seasons, our 5/4/3 weighting of those three seasons (five times his 5.2 wins above replacement, baseball-reference.com version, from 2015, four times his below-average 1.8 bWAR from ‘14 and three times his 6.5 bWAR from his breakout ‘13 campaign) generate an encouraging 2016 projection of 4.4 wins above replacement. Projecting a slow and steady decline from that point would result in Davis being clearly above average in each of the next five seasons (making it six straight above-average seasons) from the age of 30 to 34 and compiling 18.3 bWAR from his age 30 to 36 seasons after accumulating just 14.7 bWAR in his 20s. To correct for what would be an extreme outlier of a career path, I ran Davis through the system a second time, accelerating his decline. I did this not only because that career path seemed extremely unlikely, but because there was something about Davis’s game that gave me good reason to expect a more dramatic decline: his contact rates. Davis made contact with just 64.4% of the pitches he swung at in 2015 and his career contact rate is just 66%. None of the other nine men to hit 40 or more home runs in 2015 (Davis led the majors with 47) made contact less than 69% of the time they swung the bat last year. Fielder, the most free-swinging of the three stars Boras used as comparisons for Davis, made contact with 76% of the pitches at which he swung at prior to reaching free agency. My own search for a similar combination of big-time power and poor contract rates turned up a far more appropriate and alarming comparison for Davis: fellow big-money first baseman Ryan Howard, whose contact rate through his age-29 season was an identical 66%. https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/16/baltimore-orioles-chris-davis-free-agency-new-contract ===== Note: even this pessimistic analysis of the Chris Davis contract by Cliff Corcoran of SI was badly incorrect; it was far too optimistic. But the prognostication in general about Chris Davis was right on. MLB teams are doing this kind of analysis on a regular basis for potential player acquisitions and new contracts. This gives you a feel about how specific analytics can be used about a single player. And why some teams avoid some players like the plague, and others value particular players more than others.
  9. nadecir

    Orioles "No one is untouchable in rebuild"

    We started with 3 Rule V picks on our opening day roster, last season why not start with even more Rule V picks in 2019? I would rather see a team of Rule V picks on the field in 2019 than a bunch of older, replacement level veterans who have no chance of helping in the future when the Orioles can reasonably compete. We are going to be bad next season. At least take a look at inexpensive, younger players from other organizations without rushing our own prospects.
  10. nadecir

    How long will this take?

    I think you are being a bit naive as to what an additional $20+ million per year could do in fixing the fundamental problems this organization has over the next few years. International spending, analytics, and scouting are just a few places that $20+ million could go to begin to solve big problems with the Orioles. Heck, you could use money to pay off debt and it would be a better use of money. An additional $20+ million spent in the right places over the next few years makes the Orioles a winning organization faster. Wasting money certainly doesn't help.
  11. nadecir

    How long will this take?

    Depressing but 2023 seems about right to me. You neglected to mention the boat anchor contract of Chris Davis, which will slow the rebuild too. This is a reasonable question to ponder. Would you rather be the Orioles as we stand right now, or a brand new franchise just coming into the league in 2019?
  12. The Orioles "backing the wrong horses" is a symptom of a bigger problem. The Orioles have choosen the wrong players because the team is at a serious disadvantage to other MLB teams in two important areas: analytics and scouting. Unless you fix these two fundamental problem areas, you have a higher probability of continuing to pick the wrong players. There's a reason why the Orioles only bid against themselves in the signings of players like Chris Davis, Trumbo, Cashner and Cobb. Other MLB have invested more in analytics than the Orioles and have avoided players the Orioles have choosen to sign. Analytics certainly won't guarantee perfect player choices. Analytics will help minimize chances of the catastrophic mistakes that set teams back for years, like with the Orioles and the signing of Chris Davis. A good analytics department will also help in finding the best young players in which to invest. A rebuild of the Orioles will be woefully incomplete unless the team invests in building a world class analytics department to catch up with the rest of baseball. Without this fundamental step, you are pushing your luck with your player selection compared to the other MLB teams with well developed, experienced analytics departments.
  13. nadecir

    Manny Machado Appreciation Thread

    There is nearly a zero possibility that Machado resigns with the Orioles. And quite frankly, making a large investment in Machado for the Orioles this offseason is just a waste of money. It's going to a number of years before the Orioles are competitive again. Does Machado really want to spend the next few years on a bad Orioles team, and do the Orioles even want to spend $30 million investing in him with a bad supporting cast?
  14. nadecir

    Machado Trade Expectations

    One New York writers view of the Yankees' pursuit of Machado: ===== Cashman — like all seasoned negotiators — attempts to create leverage by convincing the other side he is not feeling huge pressure to do a deal. When he actually has that leverage, Cashman has followed a similar path to acquisition. Namely, he makes offers he can tolerate, then lets the ticking clock work, and if teams have nowhere else to go, they often turn back to the Yankees. This is how the Yanks landed Abreu and Stanton, for example. The Orioles pretty much must trade Machado in the next two-plus weeks. He is in his walk year, Baltimore is not going to re-sign him, and the Orioles can do better than a compensation pick after the first round of the 2019 draft, which is all they would receive by giving him the qualifying offer and having him sign for more than $50 million elsewhere as a free agent. But because the Orioles held Machado to his walk year, his value has dropped below his talent. Teams have generally become more hesitant to include blue-chippers for a rental, particularly a positional rental. But with several teams such as the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Yankees and others involved, the Orioles will attempt to play one against the other to improve offers. Even in these situations, particularly as Hal Steinbrenner’s ownership has become more entrenched, the Yanks have rarely blinked. My gut on where the Yankees are right now is this: They are coming to peace that the high-end starter they crave and would pay lavishly for is not going to be available. For protection and depth, they will still almost certainly obtain a starter from the Michael Fulmer, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, etc., bin. Without the ace type, the Yanks will also prioritize protecting the rotation even more by adding another high-end reliever to what already is arguably the majors’ best pen. The Yanks will look to shorten games with every starter not named Luis Severino. Therefore, it is possible if the Yankees trade with the Orioles, it would be for Zach Britton. But that doesn’t mean it is impossible they land Machado. No one saw the Yanks coming for A-Rod, and they were mostly bystanders for Stanton until a week before the deal. However, if Cashman’s history is the guide, he will make an offer, then wait to see if the market collapses and the clock ticking toward a deadline motivates a must-act team back to the Yankees. https://nypost.com/2018/07/12/yankees-wont-blink-first-in-manny-machado-sweepstakes/
  15. nadecir

    Machado Trade Expectations

    I see no good reason for the Orioles to play Machado any more, or even wait to trade him any longer than necessary. Not only is there risk of injury during a game, he can get injured off the field. Something simple like an auto accident is a possibility. Tell the teams to give you the best offer now, and pick the best one very soon. What's to be gained by putting Machado on the field in an Orioles uniform any longer? There's only risk of an injury at this point. A Machado injury now would set the Orioles rebuilding back significantly.
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