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e16bball

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e16bball last won the day on March 23

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  1. Zach Davies

    Cleveland: Drew Pomeranz Zach Putnam Steven Wright Hector Rondon Jeanmar Gomez Blake Wood Anthony Swarzak Kirby Yates Toronto: Noah Syndergaard Joe Musgrove Anthony DeSclafani Jeff Hoffman Kendall Graveman Daniel Norris Matt Boyd Sam Dyson Jeremy Jeffress Liam Hendriks Miguel Castro Jesse Chavez Henderson Alvarez It's impossible to reasonably compare TB to the Orioles, given that they have constantly operated as a rebuilding team (even when they were good), and thus most of their pitching trades have involved established veterans like Price, Shields, Garza, Moore, Hellickson, Smyly, McGee, etc. Even still, they've given away a couple valuable young starters in German Marquez and Nate Karns -- in addition to a lot of valuable young relief pitching, including Wade Davis, Felipe Rivero, Mike Montgomery, Matt Bush, and Enny Romero.
  2. Seriously. If "construction worker" was going to be used as some sort of racial shorthand or implication, it certainly would not be used to describe the white American player in contrast to the Hispanic player. This is so plainly not racial that it's almost painful to debate it. It is a flat comparison of two power-hitting RF/DH players who were available free agents at the same time. The clear message is that Trumbo is a stoic, understated, no-nonsense player who goes about his business quietly, without any fanfare and not making waves. Is anyone arguing with that characterization of Trumbo? The flip side of the message is that Bautista is not those things. Does anyone disagree that Bautista does not fit that description? You know who does fit that description, though? Frank Robinson. Brooks Robinson. Eddie Murray. Cal Ripken. Adam Jones. Buck Showalter. All among the most beloved people to ever don an Orioles uniform. Not because of their race or nationality -- because of their ability, of course, but also their attitude and approach to the game. The attitude that essentially defines the "Oriole Way." Jose Bautista is an obnoxious, confrontational, self-aggrandizing, attention-grabbing jerk. As a person. As an individual. Not as a racial symbol. Could anyone possibly suggest that he better fits the mold of the tradition the Orioles have created over decades in Baltimore? That his approach to the game more resembles the players and managers Orioles fans have most loved and rooted for than does Trumbo's? It was a poor choice of words to say "working class," which brings more issues of social strata into the context than necessary. But the point he was making was one about two individual players with entirely different approaches to the game. And if there's really any doubt about underlying implications about the Orioles or Duquette having a latent racial preference, just bear in mind that this very offseason, at the exact same time they were choosing Trumbo over Bautista, they let go of their smart, gritty, no-nonsense, team-first catcher. Who is white. And replaced him with a new catcher. Who isn't white -- but who does happen to be smart, gritty, no-nonsense, and team-first. So I suppose it is accurate to say that they have a preferred type of player. It just has nothing to do with race.
  3. Seth Smith trade impact on Trumbo

    To be fair to both players, the Fangraphs defensive value includes positional adjustments -- both guys DHed in dozens of games, so that number isn't just reflecting their overall defensive performance. It's actually penalizing both (heavily) for frequently being slotted in the DH spot. If you're talking about actual defensive performance in the OF: Trumbo 2015-16: -15 DRS, -10.6 UZR (-9.6 UZR/150) Smith 2015-16: -6 DRS, -1.1 UZR (-0.9 UZR/150) Per the metrics, Trumbo was below-average in 2015 and very poor in 2016. Smith was also very poor in 2016, but he was actually above-average to good in 2015. Pretty hard to know exactly what you're going to get at Smith's age -- but unless last season's "fall off the cliff" performance is really all he's capable of anymore, he's generally been a mediocre, average-ish defensive OF. Which is a lot more than Trumbo can say.
  4. Press Box: Orioles New Right Fielder

    That's only if you buy Pagan's 2016 power. I think you have to be more than a little skeptical of a power surge at the age of 35, especially when it comes after two full seasons of absolutely zero power. If you get something much closer to the 2014 and 2015 versions of Pagan -- the ones with no power -- what makes him any better than Joey Rickard?
  5. The one thing that just keeps dangling out there as a possibility this offseason is the Dodgers very possibly losing Jansen from a bullpen that doesn't have a whole lot beyond him. That's a team that is in full-out compete mode. They're not going into this season with a big hole in the back end of the bullpen. Hard to imagine them dealing Urias, even for Britton. But with high-upside prospects like Cody Bellinger and Yadier Alvarez behind him in their pipeline, you can't help but wonder if the O's could inject some major talent into the farm system by taking advantage of the team that lost closer musical chairs this offseason.
  6. MLB Trade Rumors FA Predictions

    He's played about 1000 innings of above-average defense in RF...
  7. So What Happened To This Team?

    Miley (with BAL): 4.64 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, .387 BABIP, 59.1% strand rate Miranda (w/ SEA): 5.28 FIP, 5.22 xFIP, .216 BABIP, 79.2% strand rate If you're expecting Duquette to be able to predict which pitchers will get extraordinarily lucky and which will get extraordinarily unlucky over a 2 month/10 start span, you're asking him to be able to look into a crystal ball that doesn't exist. I liked Ariel Miranda. I hoped he'd become something for us. But if you think he could even survive, let alone thrive, in the AL East on the performance he's shown in Seattle so far --- low K rate (6.56 K/9), relatively high BB rate (3.28 BB/9), astronomical HR rate (1.74 HR/9) --- you're fooling yourself.
  8. O's acquire Steve Pearce for Jonah Heim

    Would have to agree that "viable backup" is about what Heim's upside looks like at this point. If you take a look around the league, there isn't a starting C or even a very solid backup C who was still nearly this bad a hitter at age 21. So, what we gave up is a guy whose reasonable projection --- if he stays healthy, if his bat continues to progress, if his defensive skills don't erode --- is that he could be a viable backup C in 3-4 years? If we can't get another one of those into the organization within that time span, we're in much bigger trouble than just missing out on the opportunity to run Jonah Heim out to catch Sunday afternoon games. In return, we got a guy who has a top 10 WRC+ (147) in all of baseball this season. Of course he's probably going to regress a bit from that, but he's still a good hitter. He crushes lefties (always has), which we need. He can immediately step in and platoon with Kim in LF and/or Alvarez at DH. He gives Buck the ability to spell either Trumbo or Davis down the stretch without feeling like he's losing that much offense. He obviously becomes your first PH option off the bench against any lefty. And he gives you insurance at 5 positions (LF, RF, 1B, DH, and even 2B) in case of an injury. This one's a no-brainer. I wish teams would give up good players for absolutely zero value in return too. But they don't. In this case, we got a good player, one who can help us in a lot of ways during our stretch run. And what we gave up in return is a guy who's at least 3 years away and will have to make HUGE strides at the plate to ever become much more than an organization's 3rd catcher. That's a win. A big win. Especially for a team that has an open window right now, a window that will honestly probably be shut well before Heim ever makes his ML debut.
  9. Do O's make another trade before the deadline?

    Christian Walker + filler for Boone Logan? He seems fairly similar to the return the White Sox got for Zach Duke, who wasn't just a 2-month rental. He wouldn't really be blocked at 1B with the Rockies, either. And his time in the OF might give him a little extra versatility for the NL game. Sure would love to add Logan to the pen for the stretch run and playoffs. He could be a valuable chess piece in the late innings --- his numbers are outstanding this year.
  10. Morosi reporting Orioles interested in Liriano

    Career .590 OPS against and 2.76 FIP/2.95 xFIP when facing lefties in his career. Even if it didn't work out with him as a starter, he could potentially be a devastating lefty arm out of the pen on a team lacking for one. Obviously the salary is extraordinarily high for a lefty reliever, so you'd have to have hope that he could rediscover his arsenal to be a starter. But if not, he could be a weapon out of the bullpen in the pennant race/playoffs.
  11. What To Make Of Manny Machado's Base Running?

    I tend to doubt it as well. Just thought it was an odd thing for a non-local commentator to get wind of, let alone offended by.
  12. What To Make Of Manny Machado's Base Running?

    First and foremost, it was beyond asinine for LeBatard to insinuate that there was any racial aspect whatsoever to Palmer's comments about Manny not hustling. One thing that concerns me a little...how is Dan LeBatard, a relatively national presence at this point who has basically no tie to the Baltimore area, even becoming aware of relatively benign comments Jim Palmer made during two separate local Orioles broadcasts? My concern is that LeBatard is based out of Miami, which of course also happens to be Manny's hometown. Could just be a coincidence, could even be that LeBatard specifically follows Manny's at-bats as a top star hailing from his city. But it would be disappointing to me if Manny or folks in his camp feel the same way or saw to it that this "story" made its way to LeBatard.
  13. Pitching Targets

    I'd thought about Nolasco as well. The peripherals do look quite strong. The thing that concerns me is that he's always been a guy who has significantly UNDERperformed his peripherals. A 4.57 career ERA, compared to a 3.80 FIP and a 3.79 xFIP, and he's underperformed his metrics every year since 2009. That gap has only been getting wider, as over the last 3 seasons he's posted a 5.51 ERA despite a 3.99 FIP and 3.97 xFIP. Along with his teammate Trevor May, whose numbers are oddly similar, that's by far the biggest metric underperformance in baseball over that 3-year span. My concern, in a nutshell, is that the metrics say he's a good pitcher. His K rate, BB rate, FB rate, etc. are all in line with him being a good pitcher. But his actually results are screaming that he's not. And we've got such a sample size with him (over 1000 innings of consistently underperforming his peripherals) that it seems fair to believe maybe he's an outlier. I've only seen him pitch a small handful of times, but I'd bet someone in scouting could put their finger on why exactly he seems to do everything right --- but still routinely gets slaughtered.
  14. Pitching Targets

    What about Ervin Santana? The contract is ugly, the performance hasn't been great --- but if we took on enough money, the Twins might give him to us for free (prospect-wise). In a scenario where we're looking to hoard the prospects we have left, maybe that's our best bet? Quick glance at the numbers seems to indicate a reasonable expectation of a 4.00-4.50 ERA, giving you some innings, and having a non-zero possibility of better-than-expected results (ERA was 4.00 or lower in five of the previous six seasons). The money is an issue, as even beyond this season he's owed 2/28M through 2018. But if we could get Minnesota to eat some money, he could fill a major hole for us. Not spectacularly, but probably pretty reliably.
  15. Base Stealing Opinion Thread

    Baserunning runs above average per 600 PAs: Henderson - 6.5 Raines - 5.8 Rickey was probably better, although that includes things beyond just steals. Sometimes quantity matters. Over the last 3 seasons, Steph Curry has made 949 3ptFGs. He's shot the ball from 3-point range at a 44.2% clip. That's outrageous. But by percentage, he's not the best 3-point shooter in the NBA over that period of time. Hell, by percentage, he's not even the best 3-point shooter in his immediate family over that period of time (brother Seth has shot 45.1% from deep in his 48 NBA games). Even if you only include relatively high-volume 3-point shooters, it appears that both Kyle Korver (45.6%) and J.J. Redick (44.5%) are the more accurate shooters. But Steph Curry has attempted 2147 3ptFGs over that period of time. Korver has attempted 1238 and Redick has attempted 1064. Those aren't small amounts --- both rank in the top 10 in 3ptFG attempts the league over this 3-year span. But Curry's sheer number of attempts dwarfs theirs, which is how he's managed to make 385 more than Korver and 475 more than Redick. Their minutes numbers are similar enough that there's really only one reasonable conclusion --- he's taking shots that they aren't. More specifically, he's taking shots that they would turn down. Many, many shots that they would turn down, in fact. Shots off the dribble, shots from 30 feet out, fade-aways, etc. Whereas the other two are largely just high-volume spot-up shooters. His overall degree of difficulty is much higher, because he's willing to take the much tougher shots, and yet he still shoots nearly as accurately as they do. It's a similar situation with Rickey, I'd suggest. Raines attempted to steal a lot, compared to most players. But Rickey's attempts were on a whole different level. Than anyone else. Rickey attempted one SB per every 2.86 times he reached base on anything other than a 3B or HR. Raines, for comparison, attempted one SB every 3.89 times. I think it's fair to assume that Rickey's "degree of difficulty" --- in terms of going against the best catchers, the best pitchers at holding him, with short leads, in bad conditions, trying to steal 3rd, etc. --- was probably substantially higher than anyone else's, Raines included. For him to be even close to Raines in terms of success rate, given his sheer number of attempts, makes pretty clear just how incredible he was at it.
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