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e16bball last won the day on March 23 2017

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About e16bball

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  1. e16bball

    Britton Out 6 months per Rosenthal

    Then maybe they can reach an injury settlement with him. Look, I’m sympathetic to what you’re saying. But no reasonable person could expect the Orioles to bear 100% of the risk on an as-yet-undetermined, mostly non-guaranteed contract. Especially when Britton was the party in the best (only?) position to minimize the risk. Maybe they could pay 60 days of salary instead of the 30 days they’re required to pay if they release him. Maybe they could arrange to keep him around the franchise this spring and summer by paying him a bit to act as a roving bullpen instructor for the minor league teams in the area. They could get creative with it, if they want to. But what they really shouldn’t be doing is paying the man the full $12M when odds are he probably won’t pitch at all to earn it. Not when the rules of engagement clearly stated from the beginning that they don’t have to. There’s a fine line between fair play and just plain bad business.
  2. e16bball

    Rule 5 Draft Preference List

    This is fantastic work, thanks very much for your efforts. There are a couple guys I have questions about, based on some quick reviews of eligible players and their stats. They probably aren’t great fits for the O’s to pick, for various reasons, but I’d be interested to get your thoughts. 1B/DH Mike Ford: Obviously the last thing the O’s need at the moment is another 1B type who can’t do anything but hit. But damn, he’s exactly the the kind of bat we could use — a high BB/low K guy whose power would potentially play up in OPACY. C Yohel Pozo: Probably way too young to jump all the way up to an MLB roster, but he sure looks like he may be a big riser in the next couple years. That kind of contact rate at such a young age is remarkable, and apparently he’s pretty impressive defensively and physically as well LHP Kevin Gadea: The numbers were dominant in rookie and A ball before being injured last season. Seems to be a good athlete with a good frame, this would be a big time flyer — but maybe huge upside. I guess these three guys sort of represent three major groups of players who are Rule 5 eligible for a reason — too young, injury history, no positional fit — but they seemed to me like they might be possible gambles that could pay off big.
  3. e16bball

    Zach Davies

    Cleveland: Drew Pomeranz Zach Putnam Steven Wright Hector Rondon Jeanmar Gomez Blake Wood Anthony Swarzak Kirby Yates Toronto: Noah Syndergaard Joe Musgrove Anthony DeSclafani Jeff Hoffman Kendall Graveman Daniel Norris Matt Boyd Sam Dyson Jeremy Jeffress Liam Hendriks Miguel Castro Jesse Chavez Henderson Alvarez It's impossible to reasonably compare TB to the Orioles, given that they have constantly operated as a rebuilding team (even when they were good), and thus most of their pitching trades have involved established veterans like Price, Shields, Garza, Moore, Hellickson, Smyly, McGee, etc. Even still, they've given away a couple valuable young starters in German Marquez and Nate Karns -- in addition to a lot of valuable young relief pitching, including Wade Davis, Felipe Rivero, Mike Montgomery, Matt Bush, and Enny Romero.
  4. Seriously. If "construction worker" was going to be used as some sort of racial shorthand or implication, it certainly would not be used to describe the white American player in contrast to the Hispanic player. This is so plainly not racial that it's almost painful to debate it. It is a flat comparison of two power-hitting RF/DH players who were available free agents at the same time. The clear message is that Trumbo is a stoic, understated, no-nonsense player who goes about his business quietly, without any fanfare and not making waves. Is anyone arguing with that characterization of Trumbo? The flip side of the message is that Bautista is not those things. Does anyone disagree that Bautista does not fit that description? You know who does fit that description, though? Frank Robinson. Brooks Robinson. Eddie Murray. Cal Ripken. Adam Jones. Buck Showalter. All among the most beloved people to ever don an Orioles uniform. Not because of their race or nationality -- because of their ability, of course, but also their attitude and approach to the game. The attitude that essentially defines the "Oriole Way." Jose Bautista is an obnoxious, confrontational, self-aggrandizing, attention-grabbing jerk. As a person. As an individual. Not as a racial symbol. Could anyone possibly suggest that he better fits the mold of the tradition the Orioles have created over decades in Baltimore? That his approach to the game more resembles the players and managers Orioles fans have most loved and rooted for than does Trumbo's? It was a poor choice of words to say "working class," which brings more issues of social strata into the context than necessary. But the point he was making was one about two individual players with entirely different approaches to the game. And if there's really any doubt about underlying implications about the Orioles or Duquette having a latent racial preference, just bear in mind that this very offseason, at the exact same time they were choosing Trumbo over Bautista, they let go of their smart, gritty, no-nonsense, team-first catcher. Who is white. And replaced him with a new catcher. Who isn't white -- but who does happen to be smart, gritty, no-nonsense, and team-first. So I suppose it is accurate to say that they have a preferred type of player. It just has nothing to do with race.
  5. e16bball

    Seth Smith trade impact on Trumbo

    To be fair to both players, the Fangraphs defensive value includes positional adjustments -- both guys DHed in dozens of games, so that number isn't just reflecting their overall defensive performance. It's actually penalizing both (heavily) for frequently being slotted in the DH spot. If you're talking about actual defensive performance in the OF: Trumbo 2015-16: -15 DRS, -10.6 UZR (-9.6 UZR/150) Smith 2015-16: -6 DRS, -1.1 UZR (-0.9 UZR/150) Per the metrics, Trumbo was below-average in 2015 and very poor in 2016. Smith was also very poor in 2016, but he was actually above-average to good in 2015. Pretty hard to know exactly what you're going to get at Smith's age -- but unless last season's "fall off the cliff" performance is really all he's capable of anymore, he's generally been a mediocre, average-ish defensive OF. Which is a lot more than Trumbo can say.
  6. e16bball

    Press Box: Orioles New Right Fielder

    That's only if you buy Pagan's 2016 power. I think you have to be more than a little skeptical of a power surge at the age of 35, especially when it comes after two full seasons of absolutely zero power. If you get something much closer to the 2014 and 2015 versions of Pagan -- the ones with no power -- what makes him any better than Joey Rickard?
  7. The one thing that just keeps dangling out there as a possibility this offseason is the Dodgers very possibly losing Jansen from a bullpen that doesn't have a whole lot beyond him. That's a team that is in full-out compete mode. They're not going into this season with a big hole in the back end of the bullpen. Hard to imagine them dealing Urias, even for Britton. But with high-upside prospects like Cody Bellinger and Yadier Alvarez behind him in their pipeline, you can't help but wonder if the O's could inject some major talent into the farm system by taking advantage of the team that lost closer musical chairs this offseason.
  8. e16bball

    MLB Trade Rumors FA Predictions

    He's played about 1000 innings of above-average defense in RF...
  9. e16bball

    So What Happened To This Team?

    Miley (with BAL): 4.64 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, .387 BABIP, 59.1% strand rate Miranda (w/ SEA): 5.28 FIP, 5.22 xFIP, .216 BABIP, 79.2% strand rate If you're expecting Duquette to be able to predict which pitchers will get extraordinarily lucky and which will get extraordinarily unlucky over a 2 month/10 start span, you're asking him to be able to look into a crystal ball that doesn't exist. I liked Ariel Miranda. I hoped he'd become something for us. But if you think he could even survive, let alone thrive, in the AL East on the performance he's shown in Seattle so far --- low K rate (6.56 K/9), relatively high BB rate (3.28 BB/9), astronomical HR rate (1.74 HR/9) --- you're fooling yourself.
  10. e16bball

    O's acquire Steve Pearce for Jonah Heim

    Would have to agree that "viable backup" is about what Heim's upside looks like at this point. If you take a look around the league, there isn't a starting C or even a very solid backup C who was still nearly this bad a hitter at age 21. So, what we gave up is a guy whose reasonable projection --- if he stays healthy, if his bat continues to progress, if his defensive skills don't erode --- is that he could be a viable backup C in 3-4 years? If we can't get another one of those into the organization within that time span, we're in much bigger trouble than just missing out on the opportunity to run Jonah Heim out to catch Sunday afternoon games. In return, we got a guy who has a top 10 WRC+ (147) in all of baseball this season. Of course he's probably going to regress a bit from that, but he's still a good hitter. He crushes lefties (always has), which we need. He can immediately step in and platoon with Kim in LF and/or Alvarez at DH. He gives Buck the ability to spell either Trumbo or Davis down the stretch without feeling like he's losing that much offense. He obviously becomes your first PH option off the bench against any lefty. And he gives you insurance at 5 positions (LF, RF, 1B, DH, and even 2B) in case of an injury. This one's a no-brainer. I wish teams would give up good players for absolutely zero value in return too. But they don't. In this case, we got a good player, one who can help us in a lot of ways during our stretch run. And what we gave up in return is a guy who's at least 3 years away and will have to make HUGE strides at the plate to ever become much more than an organization's 3rd catcher. That's a win. A big win. Especially for a team that has an open window right now, a window that will honestly probably be shut well before Heim ever makes his ML debut.
  11. e16bball

    Do O's make another trade before the deadline?

    Christian Walker + filler for Boone Logan? He seems fairly similar to the return the White Sox got for Zach Duke, who wasn't just a 2-month rental. He wouldn't really be blocked at 1B with the Rockies, either. And his time in the OF might give him a little extra versatility for the NL game. Sure would love to add Logan to the pen for the stretch run and playoffs. He could be a valuable chess piece in the late innings --- his numbers are outstanding this year.
  12. e16bball

    Morosi reporting Orioles interested in Liriano

    Career .590 OPS against and 2.76 FIP/2.95 xFIP when facing lefties in his career. Even if it didn't work out with him as a starter, he could potentially be a devastating lefty arm out of the pen on a team lacking for one. Obviously the salary is extraordinarily high for a lefty reliever, so you'd have to have hope that he could rediscover his arsenal to be a starter. But if not, he could be a weapon out of the bullpen in the pennant race/playoffs.
  13. e16bball

    What To Make Of Manny Machado's Base Running?

    I tend to doubt it as well. Just thought it was an odd thing for a non-local commentator to get wind of, let alone offended by.
  14. e16bball

    What To Make Of Manny Machado's Base Running?

    First and foremost, it was beyond asinine for LeBatard to insinuate that there was any racial aspect whatsoever to Palmer's comments about Manny not hustling. One thing that concerns me a little...how is Dan LeBatard, a relatively national presence at this point who has basically no tie to the Baltimore area, even becoming aware of relatively benign comments Jim Palmer made during two separate local Orioles broadcasts? My concern is that LeBatard is based out of Miami, which of course also happens to be Manny's hometown. Could just be a coincidence, could even be that LeBatard specifically follows Manny's at-bats as a top star hailing from his city. But it would be disappointing to me if Manny or folks in his camp feel the same way or saw to it that this "story" made its way to LeBatard.
  15. e16bball

    Pitching Targets

    I'd thought about Nolasco as well. The peripherals do look quite strong. The thing that concerns me is that he's always been a guy who has significantly UNDERperformed his peripherals. A 4.57 career ERA, compared to a 3.80 FIP and a 3.79 xFIP, and he's underperformed his metrics every year since 2009. That gap has only been getting wider, as over the last 3 seasons he's posted a 5.51 ERA despite a 3.99 FIP and 3.97 xFIP. Along with his teammate Trevor May, whose numbers are oddly similar, that's by far the biggest metric underperformance in baseball over that 3-year span. My concern, in a nutshell, is that the metrics say he's a good pitcher. His K rate, BB rate, FB rate, etc. are all in line with him being a good pitcher. But his actually results are screaming that he's not. And we've got such a sample size with him (over 1000 innings of consistently underperforming his peripherals) that it seems fair to believe maybe he's an outlier. I've only seen him pitch a small handful of times, but I'd bet someone in scouting could put their finger on why exactly he seems to do everything right --- but still routinely gets slaughtered.