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271 Double-A

About esmd

  • Rank
    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 11/14/1975

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    Stevensville, MD
  • Interests
    Hunting, Orioles, Ravens, Terps, Poker
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Chris Davis
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
  1. Mullins will very likely be the CFer next season after Jones leaves via FA. He should be fun to watch.
  2. Precisely. And the reason for that is to reset their luxury tax penalty back to the starting point so they can be in on Machado and Harper next offseason.
  3. While I agree with Boswell's point about players pushing and/or over 30 seeing their value diminished, Harper and Machado are rare exceptions, since they hit the majors as teenagers and FA in their mid-20's. They probably won't hit $400M, but I never really though they would, at least not over an 8-10 year deal, maybe if they took a shorter deal the AAV would push $40M. But I still think they both get deals of at least 8 years, very possibly 10, with AAVs of at least $30M per year.
  4. From the article: " From analyzing the recent contracts of a range of free agents, I think that almost all teams now believe that if they acquire a top free agent such as Harper, they will have to give up compensation — in draft picks and lost international bonus pool money — that is worth at least $50 million and perhaps more like $75 million." snip "But the main reason for the salary plunge is the huge value teams place on the compensation that they must give up if they sign a top free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer ($17.4 million last year)." snip "Young players are valued far higher now. Players past 30 are valued much less,” said Boone, a Stanford graduate. Analytics prove players peak younger than previously thought. Testing for PEDs and amphetamines has stopped older players from cheating to stay young. So the valuation gap has widened at warp speed." snip "If the Nats had signed Arrieta, Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as a free agent, they would have given up second- and fifth-round picks in the June draft, as well as $1 million in international bonus money. “Fans don’t understand all the value in those picks and bonus money,” Nats principal owner Mark Lerner said Tuesday. But the Lerners understand. In a few years, the Nats’ starting lineup may include outfielders Robles, 20, and Soto, 19, as well as Wilmer Difo and catcher Pedro Severino. A key piece in the 2016 trade for Eaton was 100-mph prospect Reynaldo Lopez. Those five Dominican players were all signed by the Nats for less than $400,000 in international bonus money. Could the ultimate value of all those internationals, plus draft picks that might pan out as well as a second-rounder like Jordan Zimmermann, provide the Nats with $50 million to $75 million in value — my guesstimate earlier — during their young, inexpensive 20s?"
  5. I think Machado gets somewhere around 10/$300M. He'd only be 36 at the end of that deal I believe, so it's reasonable to believe he'll still be producing at a high level. Plus, he'll probably get an opt-out after year 4 or 5, so chances are he opts out and the original deal gets torn up anyway - the signing team can always let him go if they feel he may start declining.
  6. I'm not exactly worried about that. More likely is he struggles in April and most of May, gets banished to the 'pen, continues to struggle, and they finally cut bait with him somewhere around mid-season. Then he goes unsigned for the remainder of the year, and likely for good. Maybe if he's lucky he gets a MiL deal next spring.
  7. Agreed. Especially Tillman. He'll be given multiple starts in April and probably early May at least in an effort to see if he can return to form.
  8. I get what some of you are saying about talking off the field, texting, sharing agents, etc. Of course that's going to happen. The distinction to me at least, is that this apparently occurred on the field during a game. That's why it should be tampering and MLB should penalize the Yankees for it, albeit a very minor penalty (maybe an appropriate sized fine with proceeds to a charity of some sort).
  9. This. Tampering is tampering, whether it's a player or executive. The Yankees should be penalized accordingly.
  10. I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, especially in context to what I was saying. My point to Weams is that it's not a sure thing that the lost draft pick (if we sign Cobb) is a 2020 arm, even if they draft a college pitcher. Prospects often don't work out, they get injured, they develop more slowly than expected, etc, etc. Point being that I think we're much better off with Cobb on a multi-year deal than we are with that draft pick that MIGHT turn into a 2020 arm.
  11. Okay, let's say it is. Still not a sure thing. They need Cobb and they can get him. He's proven. If they're serious, they do it.
  12. I'd still do it. No guarantee on the draft pick, plus if it was a HS pitcher, you probably wouldn't see them by 2020 anyway.
  13. Give him 3/50 with a 4th year option at $18M. Make the option kick in on IP's over the 3 years, WHIP over the first 3 years, etc. Basically if he delivers on the first 3 years, bam, the 4th year kicks in.
  14. I'd be less concerned if this wasn't an exact replay of what we was all last year. Struggling with command and velocity. Doesn't seem like he's any better. If they don't put on a full court press to sign Cobb now, they're fools.
  15. DJ Stewart, potential roster spot?

    Yep, what ^ said.