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About Chito

  • Rank
    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 9/25/1980

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  • Location
    Greenville, NC
  • Interests
    Golf, rock and roll, booze
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Nick Markakis
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Eric Davis

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  1. The average vertical movement on the BP f/x scale is 9. Blake Snell is at 11. Verlander is still getting it done at 11.15(!) Means is at 10.99. Bundy 10.75. Both near the top in that category.
  2. Yep. Just found Sarris pointing someone to the BP Pitch f/x leaderboard.
  3. He did write this just after the part I posted: The all-time top 50 four-seamers by ride average 90 mph. Among four-seamers that average more than 94 mph, Buehler actually has the 11th-highest ride of the era.
  4. Seems like it's just another way to say "perceived rise." Linked to spin rate. Here's what Sarris wrote in a piece about Walker Buehler: There’s another advanced concept that’s at play here. “Ride,” or the way that a backspun fastball can counteract gravity and appear higher at the plate than a batter expects, is something that Buehler has used to guide his development. Spin contributes to movement, and Buehler has the 12th-highest spin rate among starting pitchers in baseball this year. More spin on a four seamer generally means more ride. Buehler has more ride than the average pitcher, but only the 116th-highest ride since we started tracking these things in the early 2000s. So why doesn’t he have more ride? “Over 94, the ride matters less because it’s firm enough to not be perceived any different,” Buehler told me. “The guys that throw invisiballs throw 90-92, the ride helps them play so much further.”
  5. Eno Sarris wrote about Means in a column on pitchers off to surprising starts: John Means I’ve got a comp for you: Marco Estrada. That comp has its ups and downs, but it captures Means’ arsenal best. In today’s game, Means’ 92 mph fastball is below-average, but it has really good ride and jumps on the hitter — only four pitchers have more ride, and one of them is Estrada. His fastball and changeup have a 12 mph velo gap, and Estrada’s have a 12 mph velo gap. And just like Estrada struggled to find a good breaking ball, Means has been looking for his own third pitch. The curve rates really poorly in all dimensions, so the slider has to be the key. So far, it’s doing just well enough with a slightly below-average whiff rate, but there are reasons to be worried. Nobody’s really swinging at it (39 percent swing rate, 48 percent is average), and so he may have to come into the zone more with it — which would be a bad idea if it’s not a great pitch. Just as Marco Estrada has had some good stretches — even in good hitter’s parks — Means may have the ability to rock hitters back and forth with that fastball and change. But for continued success (or an ERA better than Estrada’s career 4.29 number), Means will need to find more.
  6. Forgot about Arizona's bounty of picks. They're at 16, 26, 33, and 34. Good lord.
  7. I don't think he's predicting low-.300 OBPs for Rutschman. Or is he? I agree with Mac here.
  8. From Law's chat today: Mac: I’m sorry but I can’t wrap my head around a power switch hitting plus defensive catcher and an undersized R/R first base only being evaluated that closely. I just can’t see it Keith Law: What if the first baseman projects to regularly post .400+ OBPs but the catcher might be in the low .300s? There are obviously thresholds where the two are close or even flipped.
  9. I've seen Jordy Mercer, Freddy Galvis, and Adeiny Hechavarria mentioned.
  10. Markakis is #18 on Keith Law's top 50 FA list. Jones didn't make the cut. Here's what he had to say about Nick: "Not to rain on anyone's parade here, but after a huge start to his season, in the second half Markakis kind of turned back into a pumpkin... He hit .258/.332/.369 after the All-Star break, which looks a lot like his previous five years: .277/.348/.380 overall, never slugging .400 in any of those seasons. He's a below-average regular in right field, and at 35 this year is far more likely to decline than improve. A one-year deal for $6 million-$8 million might be a bit rich given the lack of power, but there is some value in his durability: He has played in 155 or more games in six straight years and 11 of 12."
  11. Gotta get this resolved first: https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/06/22/report-major-league-baseball-bans-transactions-with-mexican-league-teams/
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