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SurhoffRules

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SurhoffRules last won the day on April 21 2010

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About SurhoffRules

  • Rank
    Plus Member since 4/07
  • Birthday 10/12/1983

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  • Location
    Locust Point
  • Occupation
    Software Consultant
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Hardy/Markakis/Reynolds....in that order
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    B.J. Surhoff

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  1. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    I feel like we're getting close to apples an oranges. There are roughly equal amounts of ball in play vs. standing around/setup in both football (11 minutes - https://qz.com/150577/an-average-nfl-game-more-than-100-commercials-and-just-11-minutes-of-play/) and baseball (18 minutes - https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/theres-about-18-minutes-of-action-in-your-average-mlb-game/). Whether and individual finds the time between plays in football or baseball more exciting is largely going to be personal preference. I personally don't find watching people shuffle on and off the field is any more (or less) intrinsically rewarding than watching the batter and pitcher stare each other down. In football that broadcast time is often filled with replays and might be less noticeable than listening to the baseball commentator trying to fill dead air while the catcher relays the signs, but I think that's more an issue of presentation than the sport itself. I certainly do think the NFL puts a lot more thought into the entertainment value of their broadcasts than the MLB though.
  2. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    I mean, I know Madden may have created an NFL fan or TWO, but the real credit for the video game to real life fan pipeline clearly goes to:
  3. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    Re: #2 I wonder what the adjusted value of a single MLB TV viewer is to a team. Can a team recoup more in advertising sales by paying a 10 year 162 dollars a year?
  4. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    I just don't see the game contracting by 30 minutes, let alone an hour. At about 6 minutes an inning, almost 1/3 of the broadcast is made up of commercials/pitching changes anyway, which MLB could do something about, but probably isn't going to. You're point about times changing is well met, I don't think having games end at or after 10 pm works these days. If they can't shorten the game, they should find other ways to adjust the product. I know there are folks that would have trouble getting off work for first pitch, but attendance is down in general and more and more revenue is coming from the TV/Internet market. I wonder how much turnstyle sales would drop adjusting the start time a bit forward and if it would draw in more viewers. Shrug, just a musing.
  5. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    On a purely personal level, I would be absolutely thrilled if they pushed game starts to 6:30.
  6. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    Personally, I would love it it games were closer to 2.5 hours than 3. However, being in my mid-30s, I don't really have any firm memories of games being that short. In 1991, the average length of a game was 2:54. This year it was 3:04. In the last 25 years the average baseball game has been 3 hours, plus or minus about 8 minutes. From the 50s through the end of the 70s it was very similar, games were right on 2:30. The big jump in game length came from in the decade and a half from about '77 to '91. I'd love to buy into the length of game/pace-of-play arguments as it points to something that can be fundamentally tweaked about the game to draw fans back in, but I'm not 100% convinced. Baseball was plenty popular in the 90s when games were just about as long and strikeouts, walks, and HRs were increasing. I'm probably a product of my upbringing, but I actually find all those things super interesting parts of the game. I literally can't remember a time without them. My 2 cents. Edit to say I agree with Drungo, I suspect baseball might just be finding a new normal engagement level.
  7. SurhoffRules

    Ex-Orioles in the postseason

    This is the last year of Nick's contract in ATL. I think it would be nice to see them go on a run deep into the post season. I was curious as to how his contract played out. Nick produced 5.7 fWAR is his 4 years on the Braves (almost half of that this year). He was paid ~$44.05 M and produced $46.1 M worth of value in that time. At the age of 34, I wonder what the market for his services will be this offseason.
  8. SurhoffRules

    Was last night Britton's turning point?

    I think his stuff seems to be good enough that as long its down he can get away without pinpoint control. That said, since moving to relief he's put up a 2.8 BB/9 rate and 3.14 SO/BB rate, so it's not like he can't throw strikes. He's walked 7 in 9 innings since returning but hopefully he'll continue to find the zone more often.
  9. Morton is an interesting case; his big velocity bump started in Philly in 2016. It had been as high as 94mph in PIT so it's not like he never threw hard but its certainly bizarre to see the late career increase in velocity. Year 4Seam Team 2008 92.47 ATL 2009 93.47 PIT 2010 94.17 PIT 2011 93.02 PIT 2012 91.97 PIT 2013 94.26 PIT 2014 92.67 PIT 2015 92.78 PIT 2016 95.22 PHI 2017 96.10 HOU 2018 96.97 HOU
  10. SurhoffRules

    More strikeouts than hits

    Since 1980, SO per game have risen from 5 to almost 9. XBH are up about 0.5 a game and there really hasn't been a notable increase in the number of BB a game (certainly the trendline is inconsistent if it exists at all). Offense doesn't exist in a vaccum and this is probably in no small part due to the changes in pitching over the last 40 years, but it is interesting to see that K's have effectively doubled and most of the other power categories have increased somewhere in the neighboorhood of 10% to 20% (SLG, XBH). FWIF, R/G are up about 12% over the same time (down from it's peak during the late 90s and beginning of 00s).
  11. SurhoffRules

    2018 Kevin Gausman

    The general trend has been positive. From pitchf/x he's carried the following average fastballs. For reference his average FB since coming up has been 96.83, 95.91, 96.47, 95.91, and 95.37. Nice that he's picking up steam, but still interesting considering he's never had a velocity dip to start a season. MIN@BAL (4/1/18) 92.71 BAL@NYA (4/6/18) 93.38 TOR@BAL (4/11/18) 92.28 BAL@DET (4/18/18) 93.39 CLE@BAL (4/23/18) 94.48
  12. SurhoffRules

    Dylan Bundy and the Campaign to Win the 2018 AL Cy Young Award

    I agree hard but not impossible. In the AL Lee, Grienke, and Hernandez won the AL in 08, 09, and 10 playing for .500 or markedly worse teams(SEA lost 101 games the year Felix won).
  13. SurhoffRules

    Orioles Free Agent Signings vs Free Agent WAR Value

    I certainly don't mind the conversation. This was all just me trying to wrap some loose analysis around a question I'd been chewing on. I'd agree I don't think signing free agents is "strength" and I'd venture a guess that there's so much noise out there (injuries, etc) that being good at signing free agents is probably not a skill that many FO have demonstrative control over. I was mostly curious how they'd done recently against the average, be it due to skill/luck/whatever. I'd agree the Davis contract has the potential to nuke any net positive value they were carrying, and perhaps that's just the noise bringing the team back in line with averages. I was mostly surprised at how high the cost of a win on the free agent market has risen. When I started following WAR it was estimated to be around 4-6 million and that range tends to stick in my brain even though I know its higher. The reality is it's close to double that now.
  14. SurhoffRules

    Orioles Free Agent Signings vs Free Agent WAR Value

    Thanks for pointing that out. The math was there, the year label for wrong, I've updated that. I thought about including him but his 2016 contract was to avoid arbitration so he's only a year into his 17-19 contract. In retrospect, I probably should've excluded all the recent ones or included all of them, instead of just doing O'Day and Davis.
  15. So I got to wondering a little bit about how well the Orioles have done with their free agent dollars lately. This is very back of the napkin work, but I used The Recent History of Free-Agent Pricing article from Fangraphs (2017) for the work on the cost of a free agent WAR over the course of their contracts, salary and WAR data from Baseball Reference (probably should've used Fangraph's WAR though) and Cots. I put asterisks on the contracts that are still active and there is the caveat that I believe Jones contract bought out his last year of arbitration eligibility. There's been a mix of wins and stinkers, but ignoring the Davis contract, it would seem the Orioles have done fairly well with their FA signing of the last few years and O'Day has a pretty good shot to exceed his contract value (only needs to accumulate another win over the next 3 years to break even against your average free agent WAR cost). There's certainly an argument that we could've replaced the stinker contracts with any random AAA and paid them accordingly, but if you assume the Os would have just signed a different free agent (at market cost) to fill that slot, they've only really busted super hard on Gallardo, Hardy (15-17), and Jimenez. I'm sure I forgot some smaller contract and the math isn't bulletproof, but I thought I'd share. Contract Years Contract WAR Rough Free Difference Agent WAR Cost ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jones * 13-18 $85.50 16.6 $152.44 $66.94 Chen 12-15 $16.10 9.8 $75.46 $59.36 Hardy 12-14 $22.25 10.3 $75.88 $53.63 O’day 13-15 $9.65 7.0 $55.77 $46.12 Cruz 14 $8.00 4.6 $35.42 $27.42 Castillo 17 $6.00 2.1 $22.05 $16.05 Alvarez 16 $5.75 0.8 $7.68 $1.93 Smith 17 $7.00 0.3 $3.15 -$3.85 Kim 16-17 $7.00 0.3 $3.02 -$3.99 Gallardo 16 $9.00 0.1 $0.96 -$8.04 O’day * 16-19 $31.00 1.9 $20.38 -$10.62 Hardy 15-17 $40.00 1.7 $16.32 -$23.68 Jimenez 14-17 $50.00 0.5 $4.56 -$45.44 Davis * 16-22 $161.00 3.0 $35.31 -$125.69
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