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SurhoffRules

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SurhoffRules last won the day on April 21 2010

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About SurhoffRules

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    Plus Member since 4/07
  • Birthday 10/12/1983

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    Locust Point
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    Software Consultant
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Hardy/Markakis/Reynolds....in that order
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    B.J. Surhoff

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  1. So pitcher with wonky low-K rate that depends on ground balls gets injured and fails to replicate his success from the previous 100+ innings? I've enjoyed watching Bleier as much as the next guy and he's been an important part of the bullpen, I'm just not convinced that he's a lock or even probable to return to his previous dominance going forward. Does that mean he's not useful? No. Just means I've got my reservations and wouldn't be grossly upset if they go a different direction if he continues to struggle.
  2. While not as low of an ERA, Brad Bergesen threw 123 innings as a starter to a 3.43 ERA with similar peripherals to Bleier in 2009 . His next 271 innings in Baltimore didn't go near as well. For whatever that's worth.
  3. I edited my post, but didn't quote you in my reply. Sorry. You are correct, it was WAA not WAR. I toggled it over to WAR and I'm pretty sure the trend still holds. There are not many high WARs at 1st base in the last several seasons and a compressed range of WAR (ending on the low side) amoung the other teams when compared to the rest of the positions on the field. It's hard to use avg war per team at a position to gauge the strength of the position, because a few teams with superstars or horrible performers can muck with the final number. That being said, looking at the distribution of values across the teams/positions I feel that 1st base is not a position of surplus production in the AL right now. If anything it's gotten weaker from 2014-2018. Unless there's a bevy of prospects ready to change that though the bar for Manicini to be a productive 1st baseman compared to the league is probably lower now than 10-20 years ago. Last year there were only 3 teams with a 1st base WAR above 2. In 2002 there were 9 such teams and 7 of them were above 3 WAR.
  4. I'm still figuring out what I think these numbers mean but a few things stick out to me. There hasn't been an AL team that recorded above 5.2 WAR at 1st base in the last 5 years. The range seems compressed into a +4 to -1 for 1st base over that time. I don't know if all that talent moved leagues, or we just have the position occupied by aging stars (Cabrera) and underperformers (Davis). CF has consistently produced high-performers (thanks Trout) as well as high avg WAR across the AL. Story seems the same at 2B and 3B. RF also looks to be a modest position of strength in the AL lately. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2018&lg=AL&stat=WAR Link for 2018.
  5. Now that I'm sure I'm speaking in WAR. AVG AL DH WAR for the last 5 years 1.5, 1.7, 1.9, 0.9, and 2.0. AVG AL 1st base WAR 1.8, 2.0, 1.6 2.1, and 1.2.
  6. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=AL&year=2018 EDIT: I was wrong, page show WAA, not WAR. Thank you for catching my oversight.
  7. EDIT: I read the page wrong, it shows WAA, not WAR. I'm not longer sure what the numbers show. Digging a little further, I pulled up the last AL team WAA positional splits for the last 5 years, and 1st base is actually a pretty weak position on AVG. Only 3 teams (2 of them DET) have wrangled more than 2 WAA out of their players at 1st over the last 5 seasons. AL-wide its run an avg WAA deficit against the rest of the roster every single season.
  8. I always get a little confused about how much someone has to hit to be an above average offensive 1B. Going backward to previous years, AL 1st basemen carried a 108, 112, 108, 113, and 101 tOPS. Manicini is at 113 for his career, but it's been up and down granted. I get the feeling that sticking him at 1st isn't going to kill us compared to the league. I think I'd be pretty ambivalent on extending him or going to arb. There's risk he performs poorly but their could be a little surplus value there even if he ends up as a good-but-not-elite 1st/DH type. Total cop-out answer, I know.
  9. That's an interesting take. The nfl does really market the league but since the vast majority of games take place on Sundays it's probably a bit easier to sell the idea of being a football fan compared to the spread out marathon that is baseball. I wonder what sort of league wide initiative could be effective.
  10. I feel like viewing rule changes as "we have to do this because no one is watching our product anymore" can distract from the more inclusive question of "what are things this sport could do with/without to make it a better experience." I've no plans to stop watching baseball games regardless of the lack of rule tweaks, but I know there are things I could do without or wouldn't mind if they changed. If the sport picks up some more viewers in the process, hooray, but it doesn't need to be the primary goal of the endevour.
  11. In my opinion the answer to Bundy's problem isn't another pitch. He already has 4 and his change up this spring looks to have considerably more drop than previous seasons. His issue is FB command within the zone. The pitch is straight, lacks velocity, and he has a tendency to groove it. It even comes and goes during the same batter. I think Bundy has enough going for him in the way of the quality secondaries and pitchablity to be a successful starter, even with a 90-92 FB if it's spotted well. The thing that stumps me is he doesn't miss much in the middle of the plate with his offspeed pitches. He rarely hangs his slider and can command it to both sides of the plate. His curve isn't all the great but he doesn't tend to finish it in the middle of the plate very often. His change up seems to be developing into a good pitch, and when he misses it's typically away and down. His fastball however just seems to gravitate towards the middle of the plate. When it does, batters just don't miss it. I'm not sure if it's something that he can improve at this point or not, but part of me hopes that he's athletic enough and has enough body control to figure it out. I'd love to see him become an effective, if not elite member of the rotation.
  12. Yeah, seemed gassed in inning 5 but stretching yourself out is part of ST. If I take off my skeptic hat for a moment and think about his outing.... there was lot of his game that looked good. If he ever figures out how to avoid grooving his fastball every 3rd or 4th one, I think he still brings enough to the table to be an effective ML starter. Big If, but time will tell, I guess.
  13. That's unfortunate. Would've been nice if he could've battled through it. I feel like 5 of 7 hits were off fastballs that were pretty poorly placed. Silver lining...his change looks pretty good which gives him another weapon. I think once again, he go as far as his in-game FB command takes him.
  14. Don't know if he missed his spot but that was an interesting backdoor screwsy-change on the inside corner for strike one. Not a pitch you see all that often.
  15. Not sure if this is ST fatigue setting in, looks like he's loosing his body control a bit. His FB has dropped below 90 for most of this inning and his offspeed stuff is missing frequently. One good pitch and he's out of the inning though.
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