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SurhoffRules

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SurhoffRules last won the day on April 21 2010

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About SurhoffRules

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    Plus Member since 4/07
  • Birthday 10/12/1983

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  • Location
    Locust Point
  • Occupation
    Software Consultant
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Hardy/Markakis/Reynolds....in that order
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    B.J. Surhoff

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  1. From what I can see here his OPS is 56th best in the IL min 82 ABs (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=d8c9afa1). He is one of three 22 year olds on that list, there are no younger players. Age # Avg OPS 22 3 0.922 23 5 0.900 24 13 0.937 25 6 0.977 26 6 0.949 27 5 0.966 28 3 0.903 29 4 0.899 30 3 0.853 31 3 0.944 32 3 0.873 33 2 0.865
  2. As much as I like moving numbers around, I like that other folks can put some context around them even more.
  3. Year R/G SLG pSLG dSLGS SLG/pSLG 1977 4.47 0.401 0.361 +0.040 111% 1911 4.51 0.357 0.326 +0.031 110% 1969 4.07 0.369 0.340 +0.029 109% 1921 4.85 0.403 0.372 +0.031 108% 1953 4.61 0.397 0.370 +0.027 107% 1919 3.88 0.348 0.325 +0.023 107% 1973 4.21 0.379 0.354 +0.025 107% 1993 4.60 0.403 0.377 +0.026 107% 1920 4.36 0.372 0.348 +0.024 107% 1981 4.00 0.369 0.388 -0.019 95% 1967 3.77 0.357 0.376 -0.019 95% 1971 3.89 0.365 0.385 -0.020 95% 1963 3.95 0.372 0.393 -0.021 95% 1926 4.64 0.389 0.411 -0.022 95% 1978 4.10 0.379 0.401 -0.022 95% 1933 4.48 0.376 0.400 -0.024 94% 1942 4.08 0.350 0.375 -0.025 93% 1904 3.72 0.321 0.346 -0.025 93% 1988 4.14 0.378 0.415 -0.037 91% 1931 4.81 0.391 0.434 -0.043 90% Top and bottom 10 changes in slugging since 1900. Interesting that in 77 it went up 11% like you said, and then in 78 plummeted right back down 9%. Power drop in8 8 and power bump in 93. Also, that 67, right before the "year of the pitcher", slugging dipped 5%, then in '68 itself dipped another 5%(68 just missing the bottom 10 list by 1 spot). It rebounded shortly there after, but I guess the hitting lows at the end 68 we're 2 years in the making.
  4. Especially in HS, if you're the best player on the team you're probably starting your Saturday at SS in the morning and then moving the mound to start the evening end of the doubleheader. I bet a 17/18 year old Thome could absolutely pick it when compared to his teammates at Illinois Central (Junior) College in East Peoria, IL.
  5. Yeah, I only go through about the top 5-8 rounds when complaining about previous high draft picks. Outside of that I don't feel like there's a reasonable argument that we would've "could've had X who was drafted in the 15th round!" Those names would've never been in the conversation for 1st rounders at the time. It would've bee unreasonable to expect the Os (or any team) would've taking them in that position. My criteria kind of boil down to: 1) How did their career pan out against players taken in the same slot in different years? Were they really a bust? 2) Was there a considerable amount of talent taken directly after team that the Os could've reasonably expected to draft in their place? Did a fair number of teams get better value with their picks after directly after the Os? Matt Hobgood is an example of a player who fails both the performance side and Orioles selection side. He was a bust and there were a number of other reasonable candidates in the first 2 rounds of his draft. Ben Mcdonald and Matt Wieters were justifiable picks who had average career for their draft pedigree. That last qualifier even ignores players who didn't make the bigs from the draft, which raises the bar for average performance a fair bit.
  6. A very quick glance at that draft list puts Thomas(7) and Knoblach(25) in the 1st round, Oleroud(79) and Salmon(69) in the 3rd, and Bagwell(110) in the 4th. That's all I see going through the first 8 or so rounds. The Mcdonald pick was fine and so were the results.
  7. Ben Mcdonald ended his career with 20.8 WAR, pretty much dead middle of the pack for 1-1 picks who actually made the big leagues. The draft, even 1-1 is not a sure thing and the Os could've done a lot worse than Ben. He was the 5th highest producing of the 1st round that year (only Thomas and Knoblach were considerably better), the 2nd round was a complete bust, and you find Oleroud and Salmon in the 3rd. The draft, even with high position, is very much a crapshoot.
  8. Going back to 1965 the average bWAR for a 1-1 is 22.42 (for those that made the majors). 17.9 is the median. For 5th rounders, Matt's 18.4 is 9th all time. Avg is 12.3 and median is 2. He has done very well for that slot. The list of 1st rounders taken after him that you'd rather have is Bumgarner and Heyward. So, 2 possible guys the Os could have had there are no doubt more valuable than Wieters, with 20 of the other 22 not panning out in any considerable way at all.
  9. One last entry because I was pretty sure I screwed something up in my numbers and it was bothering me. Now I'm pretty confident you have indeed found the winner of this competition (looking at MLB seasons). The 1884 Chicago colts are even worse if you compared them against the MLB HR/G figure of .22 (NL only was .35). A whopping 329% of the league average. If we restricted the criteria to only seasons where the league averaged more than .6 HR/G I come up with the '82 Twins. They yielded 1.28 HR/G to the league's .80 HR/G. Our 2019 Orioles rank 4th in that list behind the '64 Kansas City and the '47 Pittsburgh Pirates. On the other end of the spectrum is the 1902 Pirates, who surrendered 2 HRs to the league average of 22. Finally, if we raise the criteria to only seasons with a lgHR/G greater than .9, we find the 2011 Giants, who gave up 96 HRs to the leagues 152. The staff gave up 37% less than the average that year.
  10. This was bothering me because it wasn't showing up towards the top of my dataset. I see that you were judging NL teams vs the NL avg and so on. So other reader are aware, my numbers are using MLB averages. In 68, the leaguewide HR/G was .61 and the PFF was 106 which bumped that season down a bunch in my lists. I guess AL pitchers were really slacking off during the year of the pitcher.
  11. Going down this rabbit hole...Maddux tossed 4 HRs in 202 innings the strike shortened 94 season. Man he was a machine.
  12. Pulling in HRFactor from ESPN would be nice but would take some time so I adjusted off BBREF Pitcher Park Factor (>100 favors batters) and extended the dataset to 1959. The 2019 Os still rank ahead of all the other seasons in the range, though the 1982 Oakland team got a nice bump when you factor in they play in an enormous park. The 82 Phillies and 94 Braves managed to pull off really impressive seasons even with an unfriendly park. Year Tm PPF lgHR/G HR/G HR/G / lgHR/G HR/G * PPF HR/G * PPF / lgHR/G 2019 BAL 100 1.35 2.09 155% 2.09 155% 1982 MIN 104 0.80 1.28 160% 1.23 154% 1964 KCA 106 0.85 1.35 159% 1.27 150% 1982 OAK 94 0.80 1.09 136% 1.16 144% 1995 MIN 102 1.01 1.46 144% 1.43 141% 1963 DET 103 0.83 1.20 144% 1.17 140% 1983 DET 96 0.78 1.05 134% 1.09 139% 1992 CLE 99 0.72 0.98 136% 0.99 137% 1977 SEA 101 0.86 1.20 139% 1.19 137% 1978 SEA 101 0.70 0.97 138% 0.96 136% .... 1965 PIT 99 0.83 0.55 66% 0.55 67% 1996 ATL 102 1.09 0.74 68% 0.73 66% 1996 FLA 96 1.09 0.70 64% 0.73 66% 1971 HOU 97 0.73 0.46 63% 0.48 65% 1982 PHI 102 0.80 0.53 66% 0.52 65% 1982 LAD 97 0.80 0.50 62% 0.52 64% 1994 ATL 101 1.04 0.67 64% 0.66 64% 1980 HOU 91 0.73 0.42 58% 0.46 63% 1984 LAD 98 0.77 0.47 61% 0.48 62% 1981 HOU 94 0.64 0.36 56% 0.39 60%
  13. Arizona and Colorado I buy, but the PF for Baltimore is normally right on 100. Opposing pitchers don't tend to have to much trouble at Camden compared to other parks. That said, I've definitely seen it speculated that we have some odd park effects that aren't accounted for. Our outfielders defensive metrics have been questioned a number of times and some folks things the dimensons reduce triples while inflating HRs. The hotel that popped up across the street comes up in HR conversations often too.
  14. Year Tm HR/G lgHR/G HR/G / lgHR/6 2019 BAL 2.09 1.35 155% 2011 BAL 1.30 0.94 138% 2016 CIN 1.59 1.15 138% 2010 ARI 1.30 0.95 136% 2002 COL 1.39 1.04 133% 2001 COL 1.48 1.12 131% 2005 CIN 1.34 1.03 130% 2013 BAL 1.25 0.96 130% 2009 BAL 1.35 1.04 130% 2004 CIN 1.46 1.12 130% .... 2013 STL 0.69 0.96 72% 2007 SDP 0.73 1.02 72% 2009 ATL 0.73 1.04 71% 1999 HOU 0.79 1.14 70% 2005 FLA 0.72 1.03 69% 2002 SFG 0.72 1.04 69% 2015 PIT 0.68 1.01 67% 2019 TBR 0.89 1.35 66% 2013 PIT 0.62 0.96 65% 2011 SFG 0.59 0.94 63% Ask and ye shall and all that.
  15. There are like 631 seasons in this data set. There are 8 Orioles Seasons in the top 10%.
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