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SurhoffRules

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SurhoffRules last won the day on April 21 2010

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754 Triple-A

About SurhoffRules

  • Rank
    Plus Member since 4/07
  • Birthday 10/12/1983

Personal Information

  • Location
    Locust Point
  • Occupation
    Software Consultant
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Hardy/Markakis/Reynolds....in that order
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    B.J. Surhoff
  1. Dylan Bundy and the Campaign to Win the 2018 AL Cy Young Award

    I agree hard but not impossible. In the AL Lee, Grienke, and Hernandez won the AL in 08, 09, and 10 playing for .500 or markedly worse teams(SEA lost 101 games the year Felix won).
  2. Orioles Free Agent Signings vs Free Agent WAR Value

    I certainly don't mind the conversation. This was all just me trying to wrap some loose analysis around a question I'd been chewing on. I'd agree I don't think signing free agents is "strength" and I'd venture a guess that there's so much noise out there (injuries, etc) that being good at signing free agents is probably not a skill that many FO have demonstrative control over. I was mostly curious how they'd done recently against the average, be it due to skill/luck/whatever. I'd agree the Davis contract has the potential to nuke any net positive value they were carrying, and perhaps that's just the noise bringing the team back in line with averages. I was mostly surprised at how high the cost of a win on the free agent market has risen. When I started following WAR it was estimated to be around 4-6 million and that range tends to stick in my brain even though I know its higher. The reality is it's close to double that now.
  3. Orioles Free Agent Signings vs Free Agent WAR Value

    Thanks for pointing that out. The math was there, the year label for wrong, I've updated that. I thought about including him but his 2016 contract was to avoid arbitration so he's only a year into his 17-19 contract. In retrospect, I probably should've excluded all the recent ones or included all of them, instead of just doing O'Day and Davis.
  4. So I got to wondering a little bit about how well the Orioles have done with their free agent dollars lately. This is very back of the napkin work, but I used The Recent History of Free-Agent Pricing article from Fangraphs (2017) for the work on the cost of a free agent WAR over the course of their contracts, salary and WAR data from Baseball Reference (probably should've used Fangraph's WAR though) and Cots. I put asterisks on the contracts that are still active and there is the caveat that I believe Jones contract bought out his last year of arbitration eligibility. There's been a mix of wins and stinkers, but ignoring the Davis contract, it would seem the Orioles have done fairly well with their FA signing of the last few years and O'Day has a pretty good shot to exceed his contract value (only needs to accumulate another win over the next 3 years to break even against your average free agent WAR cost). There's certainly an argument that we could've replaced the stinker contracts with any random AAA and paid them accordingly, but if you assume the Os would have just signed a different free agent (at market cost) to fill that slot, they've only really busted super hard on Gallardo, Hardy (15-17), and Jimenez. I'm sure I forgot some smaller contract and the math isn't bulletproof, but I thought I'd share. Contract Years Contract WAR Rough Free Difference Agent WAR Cost ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jones * 13-18 $85.50 16.6 $152.44 $66.94 Chen 12-15 $16.10 9.8 $75.46 $59.36 Hardy 12-14 $22.25 10.3 $75.88 $53.63 O’day 13-15 $9.65 7.0 $55.77 $46.12 Cruz 14 $8.00 4.6 $35.42 $27.42 Castillo 17 $6.00 2.1 $22.05 $16.05 Alvarez 16 $5.75 0.8 $7.68 $1.93 Smith 17 $7.00 0.3 $3.15 -$3.85 Kim 16-17 $7.00 0.3 $3.02 -$3.99 Gallardo 16 $9.00 0.1 $0.96 -$8.04 O’day * 16-19 $31.00 1.9 $20.38 -$10.62 Hardy 15-17 $40.00 1.7 $16.32 -$23.68 Jimenez 14-17 $50.00 0.5 $4.56 -$45.44 Davis * 16-22 $161.00 3.0 $35.31 -$125.69
  5. Joe Angel on the radio tomorrow

    I know I'm in the minority, but I think I prefer Angel to Miller. Miller's great, but I find him a bit dry whereas I can smile along with Angel most anytime. And, I know that neither of them have much control in this department, but I think I just prefer the tonal qualities of Angel's voice to Miller's. Each to their own, though. Baltimore has been very fortunate with their radio broadcast for a very long time.
  6. Would Yankees have traded Mariano Rivera?

    So, Rivera was moved to the bullpen at 26 after an unsuccessful season starting. Britton toiled in the rotation for a bit longer before being moved to the rotation at 26. Here's a snapshot of their first four seasons in the bullpen (ages 26-29). Now Britton isn't finished his 4th year yet so his numbers will grow a bit this year. It's...a lot closer than I thought would be. Year Tm W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 1996-1999 NYY 21 10 .677 1.95 247 0 182 0 0 129 309.2 229 70 67 11 89 13 286 6 1 5 1240 242 2.68 1.027 6.7 0.3 2.6 8.3 3.21 2014-2017 BAL 9 4 .692 1.54 223 0 185 0 0 128 228.0 160 47 39 8 63 4 230 2 0 18 877 269 2.43 0.978 6.3 0.3 2.5 9.1 3.65
  7. Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy -- Primed & Ready

    We gave Arrieta 3.5 seasons and 65 starts in the MLB. He got worse every single season. I wish he had turned it around for us, but I really don't think that a case of the Os being impatient. I'm happy the guy turned it around in CHC, but I have zero reason to think that an additional season and a half in Baltimore would've turn him into the same player. Hader looks good but hasn't thrown a big league pitch yet, and Davies was trade for Parra, which sure, didn't really work out but he was looking good for MIL that year and the general consensus was we need a move that season. In the past 20+ years the number of homegrown Os starters that were above average is....like what? 2? Bedard and Mussina. I'm really not sure their pitching woes are due to not giving their prospects a decent shot, or if drafting and development have just been sub par since the early 90s.
  8. Dylan Bundy's future

    Honestly, if Guasman can toss about 20 to 30 more innings and do exactly what he did this year, I'd be very happy. If he can do any better, I'd be thrilled. He was a 4 win pitcher in 30 starts this year. Cutting down on his HR/9 and WHIP is nice on paper, but I've no idea how he'd actually go about implementing those improvements. Honestly, my "eye test" is that Guasman is a good pitcher as he sits. If he wants to take another step forward he'll need to either improve his command throughout the course of the game (which I think is doable for pitcher entering the back half of his twenties who's never really struggled with free passes), find some extra bite on his breaking pitch (which I'm not as sure is all that common), or some combination of the two. I'm plenty happy he's on the team. Pivoting back to Bundy, I think he just needs to stay health next year. Soundbites not withstanding he seemed to be fatigued as the season wore on and his command really went by the wayside. I'm hoping for 130-150 innings of about the same performance or slightly better.
  9. Dylan Bundy's future

    For context the AL the league average Runs Allowed Per Game jumped from 4.18, to 4.29, to 4.47 from 2014 to 2016.
  10. Dylan Bundy's future

    Agreed they are better predictors but the results were there. As an aside, are FIP and xFIP normalized between seasons? I know the run context was a bit higher this year.
  11. Dylan Bundy's future

    I think so. YEAR IP ERA+ H9 BB9 SO92014 113.1 110 8.8 3.0 7.02015 112.1 97 8.7 1.4 8.32016 179.2 123 9.2 1.4 8.7 He threw almost 70 more innings, posted his highest ERA plus, and ticked up a notch in his K/9. I'm very pleased with Gausman's progress this season. He's turning 26 next year and it's completely reasonable to think this isn't his ceiling. When all was said and done this season, he led the staff in ERA plus, Innings Pitched, and Ks. He also had the second lowest BB/9 rate of the bunch (worth noting the leader here was Tyler Wilson so take that for what its worth). He might not have posted Tillman's wins, but he took a big step forward this season and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do next year.
  12. Dylan Bundy Thread

    This is going to sound a lot more confrontational than I want it to but I can't figure a better way to put it. Do you think I tallied those metrics by doing something other than looking at his game logs and pitch fx data? I'm well aware of who he's faced. That doesn't change the fact that over his last 6 starts he's averaged less than 5 innings to a tune of a 6.2 ERA. It not like he's giving up a few more hard hit balls or pitching around a batter or two. In his first six starts he carried a 95-96 mph fastball and yielded 20 hits and 8 walks in 32 innings(36 SO). Then you can pretty much draw a line in the sand on August 17th. In the six starts since then he's carried a 93-94 mph and yielded 34 hits and 19 walks in 29 innings(28 SO). I'm as high on Bundy's future as the next person, but there is way more bad than good lately. That's ignoring the fact that he's nearing uncharted territory for a young pitcher finding his way back from major injury. I submit, we may not have anyone better.
  13. Dylan Bundy Thread

    I guess my questions is, is the 4 or 5 innings at a 7 ERA Bundy has been giving us for the past month a half really helping the team anyway? He's turned in 2 limited run/high walk/limited inning outing in 6 tries. Maybe he gets a second wind and finishes strong, but I'm not holding my breath.
  14. Dylan Bundy Thread

    Gutsy is one way of looking at it. I think he's exhausted. Over his last 6 starts he's gone 6 innings exactly once and walked 19 and yielded 34 hits in 29 innings. He's pitched to a 6.91 ERA in that time. He's giving up almost 2 runners an inning and is very fortunate to be 3 and 3 in that stretch. His velocity hasn't decreased any further in the last 3 games, but he's walking almost a batter an inning in that time. He's one out shy of 100 innings on the year, which is 35 more than he's thrown in the last 2 years combined. I'm rooting for him as much as the next guy, but I'm starting to wonder if trotting him out there every 5 or 6 days is the best choice for him or the team.
  15. The importance of a J.J. Hardy bounce-back

    Taking just his extensions with us and assuming we don't pick up his 2018 option, we will pay him around 60.5 million for 2012-2017. His current BB ref WAR over that period is 12.1 with a little over a season to go, making him about a $5M/WAR production. Just for fun, let's say he finished this year and next at 2.0 wins each season (although I think he could outperform that next year with health). That would put him at 4.2M per win over the course of his extensions. I don't know exactly was a win is worth these days, but I'm pretty sure that's right in the ballpark. I think JJ Hardy contract was a good value for both the player and the team. I've been happy to have him on the Os for the last several years.
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