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SurhoffRules

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SurhoffRules last won the day on April 21 2010

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About SurhoffRules

  • Rank
    Plus Member since 4/07
  • Birthday 10/12/1983

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  • Location
    Locust Point
  • Occupation
    Software Consultant
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Hardy/Markakis/Reynolds....in that order
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    B.J. Surhoff

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  1. SurhoffRules

    Get to the Poll and execise your right to Vote

    I'm pretty sure we're getting at the same thing from different angles. The wording of those amendment prohibits the government (state and federal) from denying their citizens a vote based on specific reasons and authorizes congress to pass laws to enforce those restrictions. States can and still do deny specific groups of citizens the right to vote based on a number of criteria, felony conviction, failure to produce ID at the polling place, etc. The absence of a fundamental and inalienable right to vote is one of the basis for upholding any number of state based laws prohibiting groups of people from casting a ballot. Whether your inclined to agree or disagree with those restrictions will vary from person to person, but states are still granted large authority on how to manage their voter rolls and conduct their elections because the constitution (amendments included) does not address it. My current understanding of the situation being stated, I'm not a constitutional scholar and am open to be educated further on the matter.
  2. SurhoffRules

    Get to the Poll and execise your right to Vote

    Just to be a bit pedantic, there is not really an enshrined constitutional right for all citizens to vote in the way a lot of people think there is. There are, however, constitutional stipulations on conditions that cannot used to deny someone a vote (sex, race, previous servitude, etc) and various other provisions, for example how states must elect some of their federal representatives (senators). At the end of the day, states set their own voter roles and run their own elections to send representatives to Congress and other representative tasks (electoral college). Not all citizens are eligible to cast a vote. Some jurisdictions strip voting rights from certain segments of their citizenship (felons, namely). All that being said, I'm in favor of folks going out to vote today.
  3. SurhoffRules

    Tom Tango and "Clutch"

    Whenever the concept of "clutchness" comes up, part of me wonders why it always seem to be about the great players getting greater or turning into chokers. If "clutch" means performing above average when it counts, some of the greatest clutch players of all time are probably utility/PH types who hit .240 in 200 AB during the season who come off the bench in the WS and go 5-7 with 2 dingers. Anyway, I agree with Tango. How you measure this and how much value you assign to clutchness is a difficult question to unravel.
  4. SurhoffRules

    Comparing NL pitchers to AL pitchers

    It's hard to make an apples to apples comparison, but if we assumed that the AL would have to let the pitcher bat, they one way to estimate it might be replacing the 9th place hitter for rough 2/3s of their at bats. In 2018 the 9th place AL hitters slashed .227/.285/.353/.638 in 9172 PA. If I replace an equivalent number of those at bat with the NL pitchers production, the AL all-hitters line would drop to: .243/.312/.406/.718. For reference the NL all-hitters line is .247/.318/.403/.722. (FWIW, the NL had about 500 more PAs than the AL). Like you stated, there's no way to tell how making the pitcher a hitter would impact the rest of your lineup and who gets those PH at bats, but if you're willing to entertain my assumptions the difference in production between the "no DH leagues" might not have been all that great in 2018. Edit: I recognize this is a question about pitching ERA, but it got me thinking.
  5. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    I feel like we're getting close to apples an oranges. There are roughly equal amounts of ball in play vs. standing around/setup in both football (11 minutes - https://qz.com/150577/an-average-nfl-game-more-than-100-commercials-and-just-11-minutes-of-play/) and baseball (18 minutes - https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/theres-about-18-minutes-of-action-in-your-average-mlb-game/). Whether and individual finds the time between plays in football or baseball more exciting is largely going to be personal preference. I personally don't find watching people shuffle on and off the field is any more (or less) intrinsically rewarding than watching the batter and pitcher stare each other down. In football that broadcast time is often filled with replays and might be less noticeable than listening to the baseball commentator trying to fill dead air while the catcher relays the signs, but I think that's more an issue of presentation than the sport itself. I certainly do think the NFL puts a lot more thought into the entertainment value of their broadcasts than the MLB though.
  6. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    I mean, I know Madden may have created an NFL fan or TWO, but the real credit for the video game to real life fan pipeline clearly goes to:
  7. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    Re: #2 I wonder what the adjusted value of a single MLB TV viewer is to a team. Can a team recoup more in advertising sales by paying a 10 year 162 dollars a year?
  8. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    I just don't see the game contracting by 30 minutes, let alone an hour. At about 6 minutes an inning, almost 1/3 of the broadcast is made up of commercials/pitching changes anyway, which MLB could do something about, but probably isn't going to. You're point about times changing is well met, I don't think having games end at or after 10 pm works these days. If they can't shorten the game, they should find other ways to adjust the product. I know there are folks that would have trouble getting off work for first pitch, but attendance is down in general and more and more revenue is coming from the TV/Internet market. I wonder how much turnstyle sales would drop adjusting the start time a bit forward and if it would draw in more viewers. Shrug, just a musing.
  9. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    On a purely personal level, I would be absolutely thrilled if they pushed game starts to 6:30.
  10. SurhoffRules

    How to make baseball more interesting

    Personally, I would love it it games were closer to 2.5 hours than 3. However, being in my mid-30s, I don't really have any firm memories of games being that short. In 1991, the average length of a game was 2:54. This year it was 3:04. In the last 25 years the average baseball game has been 3 hours, plus or minus about 8 minutes. From the 50s through the end of the 70s it was very similar, games were right on 2:30. The big jump in game length came from in the decade and a half from about '77 to '91. I'd love to buy into the length of game/pace-of-play arguments as it points to something that can be fundamentally tweaked about the game to draw fans back in, but I'm not 100% convinced. Baseball was plenty popular in the 90s when games were just about as long and strikeouts, walks, and HRs were increasing. I'm probably a product of my upbringing, but I actually find all those things super interesting parts of the game. I literally can't remember a time without them. My 2 cents. Edit to say I agree with Drungo, I suspect baseball might just be finding a new normal engagement level.
  11. SurhoffRules

    Ex-Orioles in the postseason

    This is the last year of Nick's contract in ATL. I think it would be nice to see them go on a run deep into the post season. I was curious as to how his contract played out. Nick produced 5.7 fWAR is his 4 years on the Braves (almost half of that this year). He was paid ~$44.05 M and produced $46.1 M worth of value in that time. At the age of 34, I wonder what the market for his services will be this offseason.
  12. SurhoffRules

    Was last night Britton's turning point?

    I think his stuff seems to be good enough that as long its down he can get away without pinpoint control. That said, since moving to relief he's put up a 2.8 BB/9 rate and 3.14 SO/BB rate, so it's not like he can't throw strikes. He's walked 7 in 9 innings since returning but hopefully he'll continue to find the zone more often.
  13. Morton is an interesting case; his big velocity bump started in Philly in 2016. It had been as high as 94mph in PIT so it's not like he never threw hard but its certainly bizarre to see the late career increase in velocity. Year 4Seam Team 2008 92.47 ATL 2009 93.47 PIT 2010 94.17 PIT 2011 93.02 PIT 2012 91.97 PIT 2013 94.26 PIT 2014 92.67 PIT 2015 92.78 PIT 2016 95.22 PHI 2017 96.10 HOU 2018 96.97 HOU
  14. SurhoffRules

    More strikeouts than hits

    Since 1980, SO per game have risen from 5 to almost 9. XBH are up about 0.5 a game and there really hasn't been a notable increase in the number of BB a game (certainly the trendline is inconsistent if it exists at all). Offense doesn't exist in a vaccum and this is probably in no small part due to the changes in pitching over the last 40 years, but it is interesting to see that K's have effectively doubled and most of the other power categories have increased somewhere in the neighboorhood of 10% to 20% (SLG, XBH). FWIF, R/G are up about 12% over the same time (down from it's peak during the late 90s and beginning of 00s).
  15. SurhoffRules

    2018 Kevin Gausman

    The general trend has been positive. From pitchf/x he's carried the following average fastballs. For reference his average FB since coming up has been 96.83, 95.91, 96.47, 95.91, and 95.37. Nice that he's picking up steam, but still interesting considering he's never had a velocity dip to start a season. MIN@BAL (4/1/18) 92.71 BAL@NYA (4/6/18) 93.38 TOR@BAL (4/11/18) 92.28 BAL@DET (4/18/18) 93.39 CLE@BAL (4/23/18) 94.48
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