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Lucky Jim

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Lucky Jim last won the day on May 31 2012

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934 Triple-A

About Lucky Jim

  • Rank
    Plus Member since 12/06
  • Birthday 10/4/1972

Personal Information

  • Location
    Brooklyn, NY.
  • Interests
    Hobbies? You're looking at it...
  • Occupation
    Big Law, NYC
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Nick. And soon: Spoone (?)
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Eddie.

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  1. Of course you do. It's fortunate for all involved that no one has done that, I guess.
  2. Is your point that it's bigger now than in 1978, when Jackson was 32?
  3. The ability to swing and hit a ball is a discrete, not relative, skill. It may be that Davis would not have had the opportunity in a different era, but it's unlikely to be very relevant to how Davis' swing ages. Isn't someone like Carlos Pena a better comparison? Or Richie Sexon? Or (at the low-end) Russell Branyan? Here are your K-rate leaders since All-time, with over 3000 PAs. How many of these guys produced well in their 30s? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=3000&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d
  4. Reggie Jackson struck out approximately 20% of the time during his prime, Davis is 30% and above every season with the O's save for 2013 when he was at 29.6. The difference is significant. Thome struck out a lot, but he also swung at fewer pitches OOZ than most and connected with them at a higher rate than most. Davis swings at more OOZ pitches and connects on fewer. Thome may be the most optimistic comp, but he's also an anomaly: a look at those with extreme strike-out rarates shows very little long-term stability and carry in terms of value. I counseled against a long-term Davis contract after 2013 because, I noted, his penchant for extreme swing-and-miss numbers lent an inherent volatility to his projections. Nothing's changed, other than one solid example of that volatility in 2014 and one solid year where he has stabilized a bit. If he's a 3-win player this year, then he's worth roughly $21m. If you take his four-year average, then he's roughly a 3-win a year player since 2012. Any analysis has to build in the standard decline of players 30-35, and must build in the volatility inherent in a player like Davis. The power is legit, but the uncertainty is sky-high and the defensive value is low. I might go something like 4/68 but more likely I'd just make him a QO and let him go.
  5. I'm sure Adderal boosts performance. It's straight-up speed, basically.
  6. He's been back about 2 weeks. And hit something like .380 over his last 10 games.
  7. Just bring up Jemile Weeks?* (I still think that Schoop can play some 3B in a pinch, on top of Flaherty.) *Weeks does a lot of things the O's don't do well.
  8. Lucky Jim

    Mike Wright, 2014

    O'Day's ERA is consistently a run better than his FIP, and I think it's pretty safe to say - given the yearly occurrence and his unorthodox delivery - that it's not a fluke. I think fWAR undervalues him a bit. I'd easily give O'Day $4.25m. And I'd throw more at Miller. Given the increased price of a win, the transaction costs of replacing them, and the value of avoiding uncertainty, it's a solid move. These are guys who are effective against LHB and RHB, who have success in high leverage situations, and who (particularly O'Day) are proven. Being able to shut down a third of a game (with Britton) for less than $10m is a no-brainer. It's a big reason why a staff of No. 3 starters has been able to carry us all year.
  9. Markakis: 2010: 2.4 fWAR / 160 games 2011: 1.7 fWAR / 160 games 2012: 1.6 fWAR / 100 games 2013: 0.0 fWAR / 160 games 2014: 1.9 fWAR / 129 games That's 7.6 fWAR over 549 games, if you set aside 2013 (just for this calculation). That puts him at roughly ~ 1.9/2.0 fWAR per 160.
  10. [video=youtube;U_eZmEiyTo0]
  11. Synopsis: Harvey has 40ish command on his FB with plus sink and a fringe-y change. Curve ball is his out-pitch. Money quote: "I have heard of better velocity from Harvey, but 92-94 with this kind of sink and a swing-and-miss curveball will be a deadly combination if he can just work in an average changeup."
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