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LookitsPuck

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LookitsPuck last won the day on January 17 2016

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4,950 The Grand Hangout Council Member

About LookitsPuck

  • Rank
    Plus Member Since 12/07
  • Birthday 2/3/1983

Personal Information

  • Location
    Baltimore, MD
  • Homepage
    http://www.stephenpauladams.com
  • Occupation
    Technical Director
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Nick Markakis
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Cal Ripken Jr.
  1. Mark Appel

    This was the trade from the Phillies to the Astros: Astros give up: Mark Appel Vince Velasquez Brett Oberholtzer Tom Eshelman Harold Arauz Phillies give up: Ken Giles Jonathan Arauz
  2. Assume we don’t trade Manny and he walks

    Only the Baltimore Orioles would lock up a 30 year old Chris Davis for 7 years and ~$160m, but wouldn't do the right thing seemingly every offseason and try to lock up a 22, 23, 24 and now 25 year old Manny Machado. Good grief. If Manny walks and all we net out of it is a 2nd rounder + 5th rounder (equivalent) it'll be a damn travesty.
  3. Starting to feel like Zach Britton is going to be Jim Johnson all over again.
  4. Beyond annoying that the Orioles have this amazing (pathetic?) ability to let guys hit peak value....then get expensive, injured and then ended up walking/trading away for next to nothing.
  5. Assume we don’t trade Manny and he walks

    Will it be the end of the world? No. Is it evident of severe malfunction and a complete and utter lack of direction from the front office? Yes.
  6. Mancini is a ROY finalist

    I'm not even sure, to tell you the truth. He looked absolutely lost the second half of 2016. And the second half of 2017, he was pedestrian. I think he'll regress quite a bit, but he does have big time power. I'm skeptical, too.
  7. Mancini is a ROY finalist

    Aaron Judge: 8.1 WAR Trey Mancini: 2.2 WAR Andrew Benintendi: 2.6 WAR Mancini had a great rookie campaign...and honestly if he provided a 2.2 WAR year in and year out...I'd be ecstatic. But Judge is so far and away the ROY...it's not even close. I was actually shocked to see 8.1 WAR for Aaron considering how poorly he did in the 2nd half.
  8. This is tough for me. Clearly Tillman isn't healthy. His velocity was down. His walk rate was the highest its been his entire career (4.9 vs. 3.4). Hit rate up. Homer rate nearly double his career norms. It was a mess across the board. But he's only 29. He'll be 30 at the start of the season next year. Wade Miley was a disaster with the control this season. We saw a spike in his strikeout rate, but everything else was poor. FIP, WHIP, walk rate...just bad. I don't know what it is about him. It's inexplicable how bad he was. He'll be 31 at the end of the year. And then there's Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzo is a back of the rotation guy at best. He'll be 34 at the start of next season. I really liked him as a stash and get healthy kind of guy in 2016 before Duquette blundered yet again and cut him. But I'm not sure how good I feel about him going into 2018. If you could guarantee me Tillman was healthy in 2018? I'd take him over both of them immediately. If not? He'd be my last choice. Then it's a coin flip between Gonzo and Miley. Probably Gonzo because you can reasonably expect a 4.25 - 4.75 ERA and an ERA+ of around 95-100. I think Miley's basement is much worse because he's just an erratic mess. That and I really never liked watching him pitch. Give me Gonzo.
  9. The biggest thing that sticks out to me is this: "While his splitter is and has always been his best pitch, it was his slider that pulled his decidedly lost season out from the gutter. Having all but completely phased out the pitch, Gausman reintroduced it and, with his midseason tweak, unleashed it as an absolute force. Its whiff rate jumped from 8% to a deadly 19%, and it thereafter limited hitters to an anemic 0.031 ISO. Gausman suddenly had (has) two legitimately plus pitches and a four-seamer whose velocity at least makes scouts dream (or have nightmares) about being plus."
  10. Projected contracts for FA starters

    Cobb's price is going to be limited due to a mediocre season relative to his career numbers....and off his first full season coming off a major surgery. He'll get less than Arrieta and Darvish for sure. That said, I think the O's should go hard after Cobb. He'll be 30 and can probably be had for a $13-$15 AAV and a 4 year deal.
  11. Projected contracts for FA starters

    Length of contracts are whack. So is AAV.
  12. Dan added 8 players that contributed to the 2017 team

    Bit of a stretch to say that Gentry contributed meaningfully. He carried a .215/.300/.304 - .604 OPS for 62 games (up until mid August). In 92 plate appearances. He did turn it on after, though: .409/.458/.682 - 1.140 OPS ...for 25 plate appearances. Santander didn't really do much, either. He had 31 plate appearances and put up a .625 OPS. I'd agree on Castro, Bleier, Castillo, Beckham and Smith. Ynoa has potential, but he was oft injured and really only helped the last month of the season. Of course what really stands out among the 8 you listed...none of them are starting pitchers that contributed meaningful lengths throughout the season. And that's really the crux here. Duquette hasn't really signed a competent starting pitcher since 2012-2013. I'm hoping that Ynoa and Castro can turn out to be a solid back of the rotation arm. I really don't have any faith in Bleier. Bleier is more of a situational reliever...and his numbers are ripe for regression. I don't think I've seen such a miserly strikeout rate (3.7) for such an extended period and have the pitcher be effective. Somehow he was. I don't get it, but those numbers would make Chris Lee blush.
  13. Roch has been told the O's need 4 more starters

    The O's will never invest in a Lynn, Arrieta, Darvish type. Guessing they go after Cobb and Chacin. At least I hope they do. Cobb isn't getting $20 million. He made $4.2m in 2017. He'll be 30. He had a poor 2016 coming off an injury/surgery. We've seen a diminished strikeout rate (6.4 SO/9) compared to his typical ~8 SO/9 prior to the injury. If I'm guessing, I think he gets a contract similar to Ubaldo did w/ the O's....maybe a bit more. Maybe $13-$15m per season. I'd like the O's to get Cobb and Chacin. They're both turning 30. They both should get reasonable contracts. From there you could make a case for them to sign Tillman to a minor league contract and Doug Fister as a #5.
  14. Girardi: "Buck, hold my beer"

    I don't find Girardi's decision even remotely as egregious as Buck's decision to pitch Ubaldo Jimenez in extra innings in an away game in a loser go home game when he had Bundy, Britton and others available to him.
  15. Reasons the O's struggled

    You don't need to sign high end FA SP. You need to make *smart* acquisitions. The Twins did it w/ Ervin Santana. The Orioles didn't with a very risky Ubaldo, an injured Gallardo and a poor starter like Miley. Those were all Duquette's decisions. There are a ton of options that were smart signings by other organizations the last 6 years. There were also idiotic decisions by Duquette. Losing Miguel Gonzalez. Giving Parker Bridwell away for nothing. Trading Davies for Parra when this organization had no business "buying" for a single player that would never move the needle. Those aren't Angelos's decisions. Make smarter acquisitions. Don't deplete the farm system. The Indians rotation is: Corey Kluber - traded to the Indians from the Padres back in 2011 Carlos Carrasco - traded to the Indians from the Phillies back in 2009 Trevor Bauer - traded to the Indians in 2012 Josh Tomlin - drafted by the Indians in the 19th round in 2006 Mike Clevinger - traded to the Indians from the Angels in 2014 Danny Salazar - international free agent signing by the Indians in 2006 There are smart ways to build a rotation. It seems that Duquette has completely whiffed since 2012/2013.
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