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Everything posted by pcbothwel

  1. Agreed. We should also take into account we dont know the Guaranteed amount in the 4th year as well as the deferrals. Huge factors in the true value of the deal
  2. I may be in the minority, but I dont see why you overpay someone like this. Everyone always acts like locking up these young players long term deals is always smart. Just look at the last couple years with players signing these extensions and then falling back to earth. Odor, Tim Anderson, Soler, Polanco, Piscotty, Starlin Castro, Andrelton Simmons, Matt Moore, etc. We should look to extend, but I wouldnt be desperate.
  3. Well. Thats it for me guys. Im going to enjoy the holidays and Football for the next month and then basketball playoffs into spring. I live in DC, so ill probably pop into some Nats games for some beers and nice weather... but done with O's. I still remember how exciting the Bedard trade was and how it was bad that we sucked, but finally felt we were building something real. 2012 - 2016 was a good run. Joined this board 10 years ago this last June, so it seems about the right time to leave. I hope everyone has a great Christmas and New year... Oh yeah... #@$% you Peter Angelos Bye Folks
  4. 100% agreed. The orioles are already behind the Skins and Wizards on priorities of fandom. It hurts to have to compete with the Yanks and Sox every year, and with terrible ownership rearing its head again... I might be out. Im 31, so im getting more deliberate with my free time in my life as I am moving forward with my personal and professional life. The Orioles just arent making a convincing argument to get my attention/money. i was holding out hope that we could reload, but it appears we may just head into a slow demise for about 2 years... i dont have the time or energy for it. Dealing Manny for a good haul along with Brach and Britton at the deadline could of really revived this team... But now....
  5. Agreed. I think people are too callus about the 1 year deal. I know it doesnt give a team any benefit on paper (Besides the pick if he walks), but I think people underestimate how important a good clubhouse/city/fit is for these players. If you are signing an 8+ year deal, you want to know you and your family fit with an organization. A team doesnt get just a year of production out of Manny, but a year long wooing process to show that you will not only contend, but provide an environment in which the player can be happy for the next decade.
  6. A little odd, but we are talking about relief pitchers. i have no issue holding on to one or the other until the deadline if the offer isnt right. Most buyers would give up more for half a season of a healthy, productive Bullpen arm than a full season of the same player because of how volatile they can be. In general, I could see most teams saying, "Lets wait until the deadline to see A) If we're contending, B) Do we need RP, and C) Who is productive/healthy..."
  7. Interesting. Manny is going to be okay either way... He loves BMore and would love to play here his entire career... we'll see if its best for everyone to do something else.. I think hes gone guys. I know Buck is more involved with the FO decisions than most, but he wasnt doing the normal pleading to keep the Star player in town. I.E. "It would be a real blow to our team... he's a leader in our clubhouse... I hope he's here... etc."
  8. Yeah, i dont get it. Its the team that waives the player that has the option, correct? I.E If a team puts in a claim and the opposing team doesnt like the trade offer, then the opposing team can elect to just let the player go right? If thats the case, no way do I take that risk.
  9. Whats interesting is the Blazers just made a trade that saved them a ton of money (40M this year alone). They are now within a couple million of getting under the lux tax threshold and Patty C would save them about 600k. I wont be surprised if he gets waived
  10. Umm. Mancini is 24 and Hamilton is 26. Mancini is a FA in 2023 and Hamilton in 2020. So a rebuilding team would do it to get a younger player with more control. This is not saying the Reds would/should do it, but just correcting.
  11. The Cardinals signed Brett Cecil to the same contract (4/31M) as O'Day and I dont think Cecil is as good. Hell, Melancon has been about the same as O'Day and he signed for DOUBLE the amount (4/62M). I understand people being disappointed that O'Day wasnt as good this year and injured, but he had a solid 5 year track record and was flat out dominant the two year prior to the contract. I would also understand if, for instance, Manny, O'Day, and Trumbo were all FA's at the same time and instead of giving Manny 35M, we let him walk and signed O'Day/Trumbo for 20M... But that hasnt happened. We have a good team and while people argue that we simply paid to keep the same team around, there forgetting the fact that Bundy, Miley, Gausman, and Ubaldo all figure to be better than last year, even if Tillman doesnt improve. Also, we are built to compete now.... so why not take a shot. Serious question, if we begin to fall apart and need to become sellers next winter or the 2018 deadline...which of the below players are not a positive asset? As in, would we have to pay some money to get another team to take them and give us a prospect... Davis - Maybe, but not if he turns in a season like 2015... he then would be positive Jones - 1/17M (2018), positive Hardy - 1/14, positve... and if he isnt/or he is hurt this year, then we couldnt get the Vesting option anyway Trumbo - 2/22M, positive...and with a little regression, he is simply neutral. Machado - Uhhh yeah, positive Britton - Positive Brach - Positive
  12. If 3/37M with deferrals is correct, then that amounts to about 10-11M per year. If we need to dump salary to resign Manny/Tillman, then getting rid of Trumbo and 2/22M or O'Day and 2/18M are not going to be an issue.
  13. Agreed, but he may actually be better defensively because A) He will be familiar with our RF, and B) He'll only play RF about half as much as last year and therefore not be as worn down day to day. Also, CD has been extremely healthy the last two years, but you cant count on that moving forward. Trumbo might actually be a great fill in at 1B for 10-15+ games
  14. I know some people will question the fit along with the loss of a pick, but if its really 13M per then he immediately becomes a positive asset moving foward
  15. Ehh, we had to trade one of the 3 and he is the only one that had not shown signs of getting better. Miley is a lefty with a strong track record and Ubaldo, while frustrating, can go through periods of not only being one of the better pitchers on the team, but all of baseball. The 1st and last years salary are sunk cost. They used Gallardo to fill an obvious hole and save money. Im in.
  16. Are we just ignoring the fact that the guy is turning 31 in July and just had two years in a row with 650 PA, where he averaged 287/341/445 (786)...OPS+ of 103. That is 1330 MLB PA at the age of 27 and 28. I think he is who he is, which is a 2 - 2.5 WAR player
  17. Ruz, the reason pitchers (predominantly relief pitchers) garner more at the deadline is because pitching is such an unpredictable position. Yes, the team would prefer to have a player for longer, but they also want someone who is healthy and "in a groove". We have all seen pitchers get hurt (Bundy, Harvey, etc.) or lose their mechanics (Ubaldo). So a team may have less time with the player, but they get a higher level of certainty with what they expect to get from the pitcher. I would look to move britton, but I wouldnt be desperate. If I dont get a great package, I let him pitch a 1.5 ERA, 25 saves, 2.0 FIP, and 10 SO/9 for the first half of the season and then see who bites.
  18. I dont know why teams arent able to trade guys like Ubaldo more often, example: Ubaldo is owed 13M this year and 13.5M next year. Which means if we DFA him we eat 26.5M and then another team gets him for the min for this year. Why couldn't we trade him to a team and save a small amount (I.E. Orioles eat 23M). This saves us 3.5M which if obvioulsy better than a DFA. For the team that trades for him, they have the benefit of having Ubaldo for about 1M this year and 2.5M next year. This allows them to keep him next year if he shows improvements. thoughts? Jose Reyes and Olivera may be poor examples due to domestic violence issues, but maybe a guy like Trevor Cahill last year...
  19. I mean, I'll take 11, 7-inning starts at a 2.35 ERA from whatever pitcher Trumbo gets us. Here is an interesting question, who has a better 2nd half. Trumbo or Alvarez?
  20. Agreed. Defense at the ML level is hard. Let him come up and focus on hitting with defense a secondary focus. If he mashes, make him more viable at 1B by spelling Davis 15-20 games.
  21. If PIT needs to cut cash (he gets 13M next year too), then I would take him off their hands. Obviously, Buck and Co. would need to look at tape and see something fixable. His Velocity is still good, so who knows.
  22. In reference to becoming sellers should we start to fall in the standings, I don't see any way you trade Trumbo. Assuming he doesn't completely fall apart, he is going to get the QO. I dont see any team giving up a better prospect than a sandwich pick gets us. You also have to factor in the value of the 3 months of Trumbo we would be trading away. The only time you trade a FA to be in season is if; A) The player is an elite player (Machado, Harper, etc.) that can get you a boatload of prospects, or B) The player is not good enough to warrant a QO at the seasons end.
  23. You guys should really read some more literature. Or if you're lazy, watch "Bigger, Stronger, Faster" , a steroid documentary. I know as I age, HGH and TRT (Testosterone Replacement Therapy) will almost be a sure thing to maintain a high quality of life at 60+.
  24. Even more reason to keep 14. This allows the O's to find a player around 20-35 that they have a feeling about and will take less than slot money. You then have flexibility with our other picks.
  25. I dont see it as that prevalent, but I think it is great tool to use to let the Contract number look high so the agent can feel better about the contract. With CD, there is no interest which makes it a huge win for the O's. I heard Harold Reynolds on MLB network say how much better(For the player) this is than the 154 contract without deferred money because "You're getting 1.5 Million in your 50's". Makes you wonder how many people have no concept of TVM.
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