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stomperspc

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About stomperspc

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    Plus Member Since December 2008
  • Birthday 2/9/1984

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    Baltimore
  1. stomperspc

    Wiffle Ball

    I think I might have posted about this before but has anyone here ever played in a competitive Wiffle Ball tournament or league? I’ve played since I was 14 (this year will actually be my 20th year!). It is a ton of fun and a great way to scratch that baseball itch when playing competitive baseball is no longer an option. A lot of people I’ve played with over the years prefer Wiffle Ball to softball because there is a greater emphasis place on pitching. Some leagues restrict pitch speeds but I prefer the ones that don’t since it gives you more of a realistic baseball pitcher/batter experience. Plus, if you know how to make the Wiffle Ball move and can hit your spots, how hard you throw the ball is pretty much rendered moot. Competition level varies by tournament & organization but generally speaking there is a mix of guys that have really mastered it, former baseball players of all levels (high school players, college players, and even the occasional former pro), younger players/families just having fun, etc. For anyone that might be interested, the organization I mainly play in these days is Mid Atlantic Wiffle which hosts tournaments in York, PA so not too far of a trip from Baltimore. First tournament of the year is April 14th so if interested check them out at www.midatlanticwiffle.com. The video in this post gives a good glimpse of what the action is like and the variety of the competition.
  2. stomperspc

    Amazon Fire TV

    With some exceptions (like CBS and HBO), you still need to have an account with a cable provider to access those stations' apps on a streaming device. Those stations don't want you to cut out cable altogether, they just want you to be able to watch their programs if you are away from a television but have an iPad or phone handy. Some people get around this by "borrowing" a cable provider login from a friend or family member. That way you can access everything without a cable subscription of your own. The Superbowl you should be okay with since that streams on Yahoo for free. Not sure about NFL regular season games and back out restrictions.
  3. stomperspc

    Farrell and Barnes should both be suspended

    I think you might be reading a little too much into all of that. The Red Sox had two switch hitters (Sandoval and Leon) and one lefty (Hernandez) due up in the 9th. After those three it was R-L-R-R, with the final two (Betts and Ramirez) being particularly dangerous right-handed hitters. Both Hart and O'Day warmed up in the bottom half of the 8th. Brach was unavailable and Givens had already thrown two innings that came. Seems like Buck felt Hart matched up well with the bottom of the Red Sox lineup and if he couldn't get it done in three batters, he would bring in O'Day (who stayed standing/warming the entire 9th) into finish it out. Ideally though he could save O'Day for Sunday where they might need two innings from him in a close game. Hart got to 1-2 on Hernandez before Hernandez was hit by a pitch. No way any sane umpire reads intent into that. Hart's not throwing at a weak hitting middle infielder when he is one strike away from his first career save and a win for his team. Buck didn't get Hart out of the game to defuse a situation; he got him out because O'Day matched up better with the top of the Red Sox right-handed heavy lineup.
  4. stomperspc

    When Tillman Comes Back...

    I am not sure Asher shouldn't/won't go down after making his next start, assuming he makes it on the 22nd (instead of the 21st). O's don't need a 5th starter again again until Tillman is scheduled to be back on May 2nd. If Rickard is ready to return by then it might make sense to run with a 5 man bench for 10 days because once Tillman is back (and assuming no other injuries) the 5-man bench goes away. It might be nice to get a little extra look at all three of Gentry/Mancini/Rickard before deciding who goes in early May.
  5. stomperspc

    Wiffle Ball Tournaments - Win Free O's Tickets!

    Bumping this because Mid Atlantic Wiffleball is doing a promotion that I figured would be of interest to people here. The first team to register for (and actually attend) the April 29th tournament in York using the designated code (details in the link below) wins a pair of tickets to TWO O's games this summer - Saturday June 3rd versus Boston and June 30th versus Tampa. The June 3rd game is Manny Starting Lineup figure night. The seats are really good (ends seats, upper reserve right behind home plate). The face value of the tickets (not counting the Manny figure!) are nearly equal to the $100 per team entry fee so you get a chance to play and watch some ball for the price of one! If interested, act now because there is only one guaranteed prize and is expected to go soon. Details can be found here: https://www.midatlanticwiffle.com/baltimore-orioles-ticket-promotion/
  6. stomperspc

    Who starts tomorrow? Mancini or Gentry?

    Maybe a stupid question but why not Gentry and Mancini both start and Rickard sits? I think Gentry is a better defender than Rickard and has played left field in his career. Seems to me that you would want the best possible LF starting if Mancini is starting in RF. There's also little to suggest that a healthy Gentry won't be better offensively than Rickard. I think Buck might have Rickard ahead of Gentry in the pecking order, but also not sure that's the way it should be.
  7. stomperspc

    Comments on the 1st week of O's ST games

    Orioles play the Pirates at 1:00 in Bradenton on the 17th.
  8. I thought this might be of some interest to people here. My brother is running a series of Wiffle Ball tournaments this spring and summer in York, PA. You can check out the website (www.midatlanticwiffle.com) for all the tournament information, rules, videos, and to register. Teams are 4-7 players and the entry fee per tournament is $100 a person, so essentially an affordable $25 or less per player. For the entry fee you get to play a minimum of three 4-innings on one of the nicest Wiffle Ball fields I have ever played on and if you are so inclined, you can also earns points towards the playoffs in September. It’s a better workout than you might expect and games are generally laid back, friendly affairs. Games are generally four innings so you can by with one or two pitchers without anyone needing Tommy John afterwards. I’ve played Wiffle Ball competitively in one form or another since I was 14 (I am 33 now). There is no typical age range or typical Wiffle Ball player. It really runs the gambit. You get father and son teams, teams of friends in their 40 and 50’s, former high school/college baseball players in their late teens and twenties, ect. People play for all different reasons but the reason I hear most often is that well-played, competitive Wiffle Ball most closely replicates baseball (minus the running component) so former baseball players of all skill levels are drawn to it for that reason. I agree with that and it is my personal point of view that competitive fast pitch Wiffle Ball provides a far closer baseball-like experience than slow pitch softball because pitching, defense, and certain hitting skills (pitch recognition, ability to a hit a fastball, ability to hit of speed pitches) are emphasized more in Wiffle Ball. Anyway, check out the website and if you like what you see, you can sign up for any one (or several!) of the five tournaments right on the site. Below are a couple of videos that might give a little clearer picture on how the game is played and the skill level. If you have any questions that I can answer, feel free to ask here or send me a PM if you want.
  9. stomperspc

    Rule 5 guys show off early

    It will be interesting to see how they handle Santander if they do try to keep him. Buck gave an vague "but there is always ways to work it out" response to Roch today when talking about keeping the Rule 5 guys. If they think Santander can help them in the future, I think they'll find a way to keep him somehow. It might not be a bad thing if he is healthy enough to be on the roster in April. If Tillman is out for most or all of April, the Orioles can get through the whole month with a 4-man rotation (two spot starts by a 5th starter), 5-man bench and a full bullpen (except for the two days with the spot starter). So in that scenario they could carry Santander in April without him taking up an important spot. The Orioles have gotten "creative" in the past in getting players to the DL. If in April Santander (coming off of shoulder surgery) doesn't play much and struggles when he does play, it wouldn't be a hard sell to link the injury with the performance and DL him for a little while. September/October is a free 31 days because of expanded roster. They would then just need to find 30 days elsewhere in the season to have him on the active roster. That is assuming Santander is struggling and essentially taking up a spot. If Santander keeps his head above water (as in about what Rickard did last season), I think they can just ride it out with him as the 4th bench player for most/all of the season.
  10. The models bothers me far less than the reluctance of the main users of the models (BP, Fan Graphs, ect.) to (a) acknowledge when the model is not properly forecasting a particular stat/player/team correctly and (b) manually adjusting to correct the issue. I do some financial modeling and forecasting in my job. I totally get that no model is perfect and if the model output is “mostly” right that is a pretty good model. I also know that is not an excuse for using known bad data in a forecast/projection. If I am using a model that gets one line item incorrect on a consistent basis, I am expected to adjust for that rather than simply leaving in the bad data. I think that’s the part that is missed in baseball projections. It’s just not good enough to say “well, the model always seems to miss on the Orioles”. If you want your projection system to be valuable and useful, it is on you to figure out a solution that at the very least reduces the variance between projection and actual results. I think the reluctance to manually adjust modeled numbers in baseball is because of the long (and still ongoing) struggle to get people to rely on objective numbers over the eye-test. I think there is this fear that if you manually adjust a modeled output then you are adding subjectivity to the exercise. That’s true, but I’d rather have a semi-subjective (ie. a modeled number adjusted based on trends/historical performance/ect. )number that attempts to get to the right answer than a bad objectively modeled number. We have a five year sample size of the Orioles substantially outperforming their runs scored predictions on PECOTA. Management has stayed consistent during that time. The general makeup of the team (ie. strong bullpen, weak rotation) has stayed consistent. A lot of the key players have remained unchanged. In my option that’s enough of a trend to justify reducing the runs allowed total by some logical and conservative number. According to LC_O’s, PECOTA has been off on runs allowed by Orioles pitchers by margins of 73, 153, and 71 in 2013, 2015, and 2016, respectively. If BP explained that and took a conservative approach of knocking off 50 runs from the model, that would be a step in the right direction. I want to see an attempt to correct known issues rather than accepting large variances every single year.
  11. stomperspc

    Make your best offer to Chris Tillman

    Technically Mike Hampton. He signed his 8/$121m deal with Colorado days before Rodriquez signed with the Rangers. Before that it was Griffey at 9/$116.m with the Reds (contract was signed before the 2000 season). So yea, there is precedent for a huge jump in terms of largest contract size and Manny or Harper getting 10/$400 or something wouldn't be as big of a jump as Griffey to Rodriquez was. In 790 games with the Mariners A-Rod was worth 38 rWAR. Harper has been worth 21.5 in 657 games with the Nationals while Manny has 24.4 in 608 games with the O's. Manny and Harper will pass A-Rod's game total if he stays healthy. Manny's high came in 2015 where he was worth 7.1 rWAR. If he matches that in 2017 and 2018 he will match A-Rod's 38.0 pre-free agency rWAR. If he does do something like that, it wouldn't shock me if teams view Manny like Texas viewed A-Rod and set a new bar with a $400m+ contract. I think Manny's performance over the next two years will say a lot about what he earns as a free agent. A couple of 5 WAR seasons and he probably doesn't get a record setting deal. A couple of 8 WAR MVP-type seasons and I'd be surprised if he didn't set a new record. EDIT: Should clarify I think Manny is likely to get a contract bigger than Stanton's. Instead of "record setting" I should have said "record shattering", like A-Rod's contract was.
  12. Generally speaking, we are a better or at least deeper team if Rickard starts the season in AAA based on merit. I'll feel a lot better about the team's depth if Rickard is one of the first couple OF'ers up rather than a platoon LF'er or 4th OF'er to start.
  13. stomperspc

    Orioles Officially sign Catcher Welington Castillo

    I saw the article about the Cubs wanting Castillo to improve throwing out runners but the truth is he has a good CS%. He has a career CS% of 31% to Wieters’ 33%. Runners don’t attempt to steal versus Castillo much more than Wieters. Wieters is clearly better but for a while Wieters was really great at throwing out runners so just being a little blow Wieters by some of the metrics doesn’t bode poorly for Castillo. FWIW, Fangraphs fan scouting reports rate Castillo’s arm very well. I think the idea that he is one of the worst throwing catchers is clearing wrong.
  14. stomperspc

    Joe Saunders Reflects On 2012 AL Wild Card Game

    I flew to Texas for this game and it is still easily my favorite live sporting event I've been to. As great as the first home playoff win in 14 years, Delmon's double, and other games (ie. final day of the 2011 season) were, I have never had a live event experience anywhere close to that. It sounds cliched but the whole thing - including Saunders' performance - was just so surreal but so great. It was such a cathartic experience to stand behind the visitor's dugout after the game just cheering and going nuts.
  15. stomperspc

    Predictions For Tonight's Game

    8-6 O's. O's get 2 in first but Tillman gives up 5 over 3 2/3. Bundy comes in to stop the bleeding. Liriano coming in doesn't work out as hoped for the Jays and Os get two runs off of him. Jays get an add on run in the 6th to go up 6-4. O's tie it up in the 7th and take a two run lead in the 8th including getting at least one run off of Estrada. Both teams combine for "only" 3 homeruns. Davis is player of the game with a two run HR off of Liriano and a two run double to give the O's the lead in the 8th.
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