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Ohfan67 last won the day on January 12 2018

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680 Triple-A

About Ohfan67

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  • Birthday 4/13/1967

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  1. Top ten 2B in baseball in WAR, OPS, etc.
  2. Villar now has been worth almost twice as much WAR as Mancini this year. Despite the weaknesses, he’s really been the Orioles best position player this year.
  3. The statistical model is analyzing data gathered from high speed film, etc., not just speed of pitch, etc. The approach is to try to quantify things that can be accurately and repeatedly measured. There’s no voodoo. The cameras see everything the human eye can see in real time, but you can slow it down to millimeter movements and actually measure things like spin of the ball, see the exact placement of the fingers on the ball, measure the precise position and motion of arm and leg movement, etc. instead of two scouts saying, “free and easy delivery” or “violent” delivery or whatever and meaning or seeing slightly different things, teams now have biomechanics data from video. I’m curious what do you think a scout watching say a high school pitcher or hitter is going to see that this approach misses? Also, it’s clear that human scouts do look at players, although maybe much more on video than live than in the past. Aside: I think there were multiple reports that Elias watched Rutschman in person and met him and his family before the draft. There’s clearly a human element in their picks, especially the top picks.
  4. You don’t think these decisions could be performance based? New GMs routinely make sweeping personnel changes.
  5. I am not convinced this is what they are thinking. Some of Hyde’s quotes suggest they think Davis is not doing the things that he needs to do. If he’s not making a good faith effort to use the analytics to get better, then they may be done with Davis. Having Davis sleep walking through the process is definitely not what you want your young players seeing. If Effort and willingness to change is not the problem, then there’s definitely no hope for improvement. The latter is probably the correct take. Honestly It’s hard to believe that Elias thinks there’s anything that Chris Davis can do at this point to get better. I mean I haven’t read anything substantial about how Davis can change his swing to get better, etc. If you weigh the infinitesimally small chance that Davis will be significantly better versus the distraction he will be, then it’s a clear cut decision. Nobody believes he’s going to get better. Chris Davis’ mother wouldn’t bet more than five dollars that he will ever be a real player again.
  6. I have a problem with poor drafting and poor player development. Just me.
  7. I would do this and then release him a few weeks after the World Series when few people are paying any attention to baseball. If I were the Angelos brothers and Elias, I would not want Chris Davis hanging over the team during spring training. I hope that’s what they do.
  8. Hyde was referring to a plate of bbq that Davis will be eating back home in Texas. Sometimes you have to adjust the ratio of brisket, pork, and sausage.
  9. They wrote 2022 as a potential date with October games. I don't think that's overly pessimistic. The 4th thing is harsh, but the write up is fair.
  10. Maybe Mountcastle comes up Sep 1.
  11. By the way, the Yankees would look much better if you sliced off some of the older dates. The b*st*rds.
  12. Ugh. Another ugly looking play. You better hit the cover off the ball if you are going to make highlight reel bad plays every couple of weeks
  13. Ohfan67

    Ryan McKenna 2019

    First, I agree that 22 is still “young” for a AA prospect. 23 and 24 are the prime ages. But it is not as young as your numbers suggest. Only a subset of players spend a whole or most of a season there, so you are excluding 22 year olds who were promoted after the start of the season. There are two other 22 year old players currently on the Bowie roster, for example (one is a hitter...Torres is actually 21, not 22 but he’s got the same birth year as MCKenna so I’ll count him as 22). Second, you are ignoring the players who are above AA. For example, I quickly skimmed the list of players who have played in the majors this year and counted ten 22 year olds who played in the majors this year and I didn’t make it past the B’s. BUT, I do agree that 22 is still very young for AA. But there are 22 year olds on most teams and many good prospects spend part of the year at AA. I think your 2015 choices are an interesting comparison. Most of those guys dramatically out hit McKenna in AA. Most of them were over .800 OPS and a couple were hammering the ball. Trey Mancini, for example, crushed AA pitching at that age. Really only one player hit as poorly as McKenna and Difo has been a part time, all glove middle infielder for a few years. Being average in AA at 22 tells you very little. Being average at 19 in AA or being a monster in AA at 22 would tell you more. If you don’t believe me, then you can find the age adjustment regressions online and play with the numbers. McKenna’s age won’t change much. I think McKenna playing at AA this year is a product of the Orioles aggressive promotion of him last year. Again, I’m not trying to be a tit for tat internet jerk. My tone often comes off as far more aggressive than I mean to sound. I’m still very, very skeptical of McKenna. I’m not convinced by the age argument. I think his Frederick performance was a fluky tease. I will, however, happily admit I was wrong if McKenna develops into a regular player. I actually hope I am wrong. Regardless of our differences of opinion, I think we can all agree that next year is critical for his future development. If he starts the year hit at Bowie, then I am sure he will spend significant time in Norfolk. If he hits, then all will be well.
  14. Ohfan67

    Ryan McKenna 2019

    I get this, in general. But the hitting “profile” is the part I really didn’t and still don’t understand. I was hoping for some explanation of why his hitting performance has been so underwhelming. Also, I wrote in general because I get the defensive potential, but defense only outfielders are becoming less common in baseball. Those guys are having a harder and harder time sticking on rosters for full seasons. Yes they can provide some value to teams, but the analytics approach teams don’t seem to employ the light hitting g defenders for very long. At least that’s what I see.
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