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Ohfan67

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Ohfan67 last won the day on January 12

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About Ohfan67

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    Plus Member Since 2/2016
  • Birthday 4/13/1967

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  1. Ohfan67

    OK, time to grade the offseason moves

    Ha! Good effort by corn and greg to sneak in F votes now!!
  2. Ohfan67

    An Excellent Pitching Match-up

    By the way, if Zac averaged 3.0 WAR a year for six years with the Orioles I would be incredibly thrilled. If you look at the list of top 50 pitchers in terms of WAR production as an Oriole, 18 WAR career WAR as an Oriole would rank 16th all time. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/leaders_pitch_50.shtml Heck, I would be thrilled with two or three 3 WAR years in six years of control and an average in the low 2's. Three WAR years by pitchers are not easy and not very common for Oriole pitchers. Averaging 3 WAR a year over even just a few years is pretty remarkable, especially if you are an Oriole!! Jeremy Guthrie averaged a little over 3 WAR a year for five years as an Oriole and Mussina averaged almost 4.8 per year for ten years as an Oriole. Those are really the only pitchers who have pulled it off with the Orioles in the modern pitching climate (90's+ PEDs, Camden Yards, etc.). Erik Bedard had three very good years, but he averaged about 2.5 in his five years with the Orioles. Anyway, almost all of the outcomes where Zac would be labeled a #3 are very good for the Orioles and some outcomes that might be labeled #3 are really excellent.
  3. Ohfan67

    An Excellent Pitching Match-up

    Thanks for the clarification Luke. I've learned a ton from you and glad you are a part of OH. Keep it up!
  4. Ohfan67

    An Excellent Pitching Match-up

    From what you've written and from other things I've read online, it seems like a year or two out of 3+ WAR out of say a ten year or more career is what a lot of "#3's" produce. And as you point out a lot of pitchers with multiple year's of WAR between say 2.5 and 2.9 would be labelled as #3 starters by many if not most scout, correct? It seems like a very broad, general rule of thumb, right? Aren't scouts really more focused on number of quality pitches and other aspects of the pitcher rather than pure outcome when they say #3 versus #2? A chunk of WAR is luck: health, good relief pitchers can help, etc.
  5. Ohfan67

    Cedric Mullins 2018

    You are cherry picking small sample sizes! Expand to his last six games and he's only hitting .340 with a .404 OBP and .521 Slg. And he only stole one base!!
  6. Ohfan67

    Ryan Mountcastle 2018

    Not the approach I would advocate, but we do not know how many times Mountcastle was told the same thing by coaches in the Orioles system, their assessment of how he responded (or didn't respond), etc. We just have Buck's quote. "Throwing him under the bus" may have been a strategic effort to finally get his attention. We just don't know. It definitely has not hurt him so far and if the kid is too skin thinned to handle that kind of pubic criticism then he's going to have a very hard time regardless of what Buck Showalter says or does.
  7. The Orioles season has reached the point where the GM and manager (and others like Brady) should not be brought back. It's also scary that the current leadership may make decisions regarding trades that could help shape the next three or four years of the future. This is shaping up to be the worst Oriole season since 1988 and maybe the worst in modern history. You can't just shrug and keep going along the same path. It's reached the you-can't-put-the-toothpaste-back-in-the-tube point.
  8. Ohfan67

    Ryan Mountcastle 2018

    That's right. Maybe it meant zero to Mountcastle. If it didn't matter, then Showalter "throwing him under the bus" didn't mean anything either.
  9. Ohfan67

    Ryan Mountcastle 2018

    So maybe Buck "throwing the kid under the bus" worked, even though Buck is ancient and completely unable to communicate with this generation.* *That shade is not aimed at above posters.
  10. Ohfan67

    An Excellent Pitching Match-up

    Yes, I totally agree with this sentiment. I explained a similar logic in a thread a week or two ago. I think it's more important to avoid black holes of production than it is to have a true "ace". Of course it would be great to have five incredible starting pitchers, but that's almost impossible so a more realistic strategy is to work as hard as possible to have five very good to good starters. But avoiding black holes like the Orioles seem to have on a regular basis is critical.
  11. Ohfan67

    An Excellent Pitching Match-up

    Good work ScGO's. That's a very enlightening list, in more ways than one...and unfortunately very sad.
  12. Ohfan67

    Most disappointing player?

    Schoop first, Mancini and Cobb tied for second. I wasn't expecting Schoop to repeat last year's performance, but I thought he would at least have a 108ish OPS+. I also wasn't expecting a ton from Mancini. I thought he would be a .270 hitter with relatively poor on base percentage with maybe 18 homers. He might hit 18 homers if he doesn't lose his job and his OBP isn't that much lower than I expected, but the average and overall XBH are not good. I expected Cobb to produce a 4.6 - 4.7 ERA and pitch a decent number of innings. Performance wise he is probably farther from expectations than Mancini, but we signed him late and my expectations are not and were not connected to my Oriole fandom. Cobb's performance is sometimes frustrating for me, but it doesn't pain me. Schoop and Mancini pain me. Davis is a whole 'nother thing. I expected mediocrity to bad, but then we got this.
  13. Ohfan67

    What’s the consensus about Schoop?

    Their drops are not discussed similarly because Schoop's drop takes him to near zero (which is very bad), but Davis' drop takes him significantly below zero to historically bad.
  14. Ohfan67

    Does anybody REALLY care any more?

    Yes. Every loss stings. I'm watching far fewer games because it hurts a lot more when I watch them play horrible baseball versus reading about it.
  15. As you said earlier, apples and oranges. We are talking past each other, really talking about different things. It's a waste of electrons.
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