Spy Fox

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About Spy Fox

  • Rank
    Plus Member Since 01/11
  • Birthday 7/20/1992

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  • Location
    New York, NY
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Kim, Jones, Gausman
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Mora, Markakis, Bedard
  1. I think both teams will be continuing those streaks at least one more year. Unfortunately, the Yankees have the much brighter outlook overall.
  2. Probably going to stay that way with a low OBP offense.
  3. Every single pitch was at the knees that inning. Wow.
  4. He still doesn't look like he's really on, as evidenced by the high number of hits and low number of strikeouts. But that's two starts in a row with pretty good results in what matters most, IP and R. Hopefully he's building confidence and can get on a roll.
  5. Palmer on hitting a pitcher the third time through the order: "I wouldn't say it gets easier, but it does get a little less difficult."
  6. Time for Gausman to start stringing quality starts together and Kim to force his way back into the regular lineup.
  7. That was one of only a few games I got to in 2015, and I remember it well. I was excited for Urrutia and for the team-- they were on the upswing after falling down near .500, and were right near the top of the WC race. I thought the team would get back to the postseason. Unfortunately, right after this game is when they lost 10 out of 11 (starting with a sweep at home by Minnesota) to effectively kill any good chance of a playoff run. Anyone else remember that infamously prophetic rain out thread?
  8. I don't agree with this way of looking at things. If Asher can do a better job in the rotation than Ubaldo (which he probably can) then he should be in the rotation. A decent starting pitcher is worth more to us than a good reliever. And I don't think a starting pitcher really only impacts one game out of five. Upgrading from Ubaldo to someone more competent would not only significantly boost our chances of winning those particular games, but would also ease the bullpen strain in a way that can carry over and prevent snowballs of poor relief performance like we saw against the Nats and Royals.
  9. By my count we have as many losses in which we blew a five-run lead (3) as we do wins by five or more runs (also 3).
  10. Is it seven straight losses in one-run games now? Incredibly frustrating but it shows that we're not being outplayed as badly as the 3-10 record would suggest. Before the season started I would have happily signed up for 25-20. But they do need to stop the bleeding soon. It would be depressing to be back down to .500 so quickly after starting 22-10.
  11. There's no such thing as a truly easy game, but I've had the feeling this year that we have played an unusually high number of close games, and an unusually low number of "comfortable" games where one team takes command and keeps it. I decided to take a quick look into some of the numbers. Pitching Leverage Index According to Fangraphs the Orioles pitchers have faced an average Leverage Index of 1.15, so our pitchers' assignments have been 15% more important to the game than the league average. This is the highest Leverage Index in the AL, and second highest in MLB behind St. Louis. Toronto is at 1.09, Tampa 1.04, Boston 0.97, and New York 0.94. Hitting Leverage Index For whatever reason, probably because we have had the lead more often than not, our hitters have faced a much lower leverage index. The Orioles hitters have a 1.02 Leverage Index for the year, 12th highest in MLB, 7th in the AL, and 4th in the division. Toronto is at 1.13, Boston and Tampa each 1.04, and New York 0.96. Big Wins Let's use a very loose definition and say a Big Win is something that doesn't automatically include a save situation, so winning by more than three runs. The Orioles have won only four games by more than three runs, and haven't won a game by more than three runs since beating Chicago 4-0 on May 7. To compare to the rest of our division, Toronto and Boston each have seven such wins, Tampa has 10, and New York has 14. Big Losses Big losses are bad, and not really a good sign for your team. But at least they may not always be as stressful. Using the same method as above, the Orioles have had six losses by more than three runs. And again comparing to the AL East, New York has six such losses, Boston has seven, Tampa has eight, and Toronto has nine. (Arbitrary Threshold Alert: If you say that a Big Loss is losing by more than four runs instead of by more than three, then the Yankees have only ONE big loss all year, a 7-1 loss to Toronto on May 1. Yikes.) ~~~~~~~~~~~~ We've played a lot of close games over the last five seasons but this year even more than others it's seemed that almost every game is mentally taxing. The numbers bear that out. We've had had only four relatively comfortable wins, the lowest in the division by several wins despite having the second-best record. And not many big losses either. The result is that the pitching staff leads the AL in Leverage Index by a pretty wide margin, meaning a lot of strain for both starters and relievers. I don't like to assign psychological explanations for individual players' performance. But it'd certainly be understandable if all these close games add to the mental exhaustion of the season, especially considering all the blown leads as of late. We need a couple big wins. Well, right now we need some wins of any sort.
  12. We don't have the margin for error to continue being this patient with him.
  13. Sure he can. I think in this case, and others where he's weirdly frozen by a clear strike, he might have been expecting an offspeed pitch down and in, thinking the pitcher would try to make him chase. But I agree with your point in general. For a guy who can hit HRs by accident, he's got to swing more with two strikes. Very frustrating to watch.
  14. I'm not sure what Vegas said. But there's a pretty strong argument that we were the WS favorites at the beginning of that LCS round after Washington, Detroit, and both LA teams got knocked out.
  15. Yes, but he was placed on the DL after the game for his third DL stint of the year. His issues don't seem as serious as Happ's, but he's still only made five starts.