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About bmw600

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  • Birthday 8/7/1986

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  1. The math nerd in me has to respond The probability (ignoring things like pick offs, homerunsn DPs) of having one batter on base if the first two batters have an OBP is .350 + .350 - .1225 = .5775. Essentially, the chance that one or the other will reach base minus the chance BOTH will reach base. Of course, if you throw in all the ways the runner could no longer be on base, it would end up being lower than that and considerably more complicated to calculate. /hijack
  2. The one thing I notice is a lot of people clamoring for a LH outfield bat. I'd argue that a RH batter would better fit our team. While I acknowledge that most of our team is already RH, most of them actually have reverse splits. Here is everyone, other than Mancini who has so few ABs, who is likely to be batting here last year, and their career OPS splits (vs RHP/vs LHP): Davis: .868/.737 Schoop: .749/.607 Hardy: .704/.764 Machado: .820/.784 Kim: .839/.227 Jones: .795/.729 Rickard: .618/.861 Joseph: .617/.606 Flaherty: .647/.605 Castillo: .697/.840 So, other than Rickard and his less than 300 PAs, the only players we have that hit lefties better than righties are Hardy and Castillo. I think anot her RH (or LH with reverse splits) is who we would want to sign to be our RF.
  3. If anyone listens to Inside Pitch on the SiriusXM MLB channel, Casey Stern will be singing Orioles Magic to start the show at 2 on Friday. Back on April 13, he bet that the Blue Jays would have scored more runs than the O's on May 13. With Toronto off tomorrow, the Orioles have clinched more runs than the Blue Jays (in 4 less games!), and now Casey has to pay up. Just thought this would brighten everyone's day a little bit more after a big win.
  4. bmw600

    One decision left

    So, it looks like the 25 man roster for OD is: Catchers: Weiters Joseph Infielders: Davis Schoop Hardy Machado Alvarez Flaherty Outfielders: Jones Trumbo Rickard Reimold Kim or Avery Starters: Tillman Gallardo Jimenez Wright Bullpen: Wilson Worley MacFarland Bundy Brach Givens O'Day Britton DL: Gausman Matusz Paredes Either Wilson or Worley the fifth starter until Gausman comes back. Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
  5. bmw600

    Crush to RF Possibly?

    I think we'll see a small amount of Davis in the outfield this year, but only sparingly and only if the situation is right. I think there is a halfway decent chance he ends up there in NL parks, especially against lefties (with Trumbo at first) Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
  6. bmw600

    Flaherty will get you nowhere?

    I think they can co-exist on this team. Flaherty is so versatile. He could start once at SS, twice at 2B, one in LF per week, plus give Manny a day every once in a while. He would be pretty much a regular in the lineup that way.
  7. Ran across this article today on the control a pitcher has over how hard the ball is hit. This has always made sense to me, but never really was quantified in FIP and BABIP. The article is interesting in itself, but I found it really interesting that of every pitcher in baseball, Chen has the highest suppression of batted ball velocity relative to average. The article considers this as a consistent reason his ERA has outperformed his FIP. Of note, Britton and O'Day also suppressed batted ball velocity, as did Ubaldo to a lesser extent. Miguel, Bud, and Tillman were all pretty significantly the other direction. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-baseballs-exit-velocity-is-five-parts-hitter-one-part-pitcher/
  8. bmw600

    Might we see Manny at SS?

    No, I don't mean as a starter. I think on Friday night we would have seen Manny at SS if we had tied the game. Until Hardy comes back, that situation may come up again, just based on roster construction. Consider, in the 9th Friday night, Snider pinch hit for Cabrera. At that point, our remaining bench was Pearce, Lough, and Lavarnway, with Paredes as DH. We ended up using Pearce and then Lough in de Aza ' s spot. If we had tied the game and gone to the 10th, who else but Manny would play SS? If Pearce were still in, you'd probably have to go Pearce at 11 and Davis at 3B, with Manny sliding over. With Lough in, you would probably put Paredes at 3B and lose the DH, with Manny sliding to SS again. It has to work out this way in this scenario, right? I just was intrigued by the possibility of seeing Manny in a cameo at SS. I think long-term he's a 3B, but it would be fun to see him at SS.
  9. bmw600

    9th inning last night

    I'm not trying to dampen anyone's fun after today, but I was reflecting on Friday night's game. Anyone have any idea why we didn't walk Bogaerts? 1st base open, 1 out, bottom of the ninth in a tie game, would have thought that would be automatic.
  10. bmw600

    vs. YANKEES, 7/12

    Honestly wish I wasn't. My section and the one on either side were each about 2/3 MFY fans
  11. bmw600

    vs. YANKEES, 7/12

    From where I'm sitting, 80 percent Yankees fans is closer
  12. bmw600

    vs. ROYALS, 5/07

    The issue is that Matusz had two pitches in the same spot (1st pitch after delay, 0-1 pitch to Gordon) called balls.
  13. bmw600

    Is Jones overrated Defensively?

    The problem is, is that trying to get to the spot the exact same time the ball does is precisely how any player tracks a fly ball. It is not being lazy or aloof, its how the human brain and eyes figure out where the ball is going to go. Even on a ball hit right at someone, they will constantly move and adjust for just this reason. Here's an article that details this: http:// http://www.livescience.com/3445-baseball-players-catch-fly-balls.html
  14. bmw600

    vs. YANKEES 9/08

    Texas up 3-2 in 10th, bases loaded, 2 outs Now 4-2, still bases loaded on a HBP
  15. bmw600

    vs. NATIONALS 5/18

    Kakes. Large.