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MASNPalmer

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About MASNPalmer

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  • Birthday 7/29/1988

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  1. MASNPalmer

    DL Hall 2019

    FYI, High A ball (Frederick) where he has 23 Ks in 15 IP and is 3+ years younger than average competition.
  2. - Pendulum has swung too far; Pythag backs this up with 8 win improvement at true talent level getting you to 55 wins right there - Tanking is in vogue around baseball; everyone points to the Astros blueprint and Elias/Sig's background but while history rhymes it doesn't repeat. This will not be a 3-5 year tank, particularly as... - The farm system, while lacking true upside, is actually very deep and not the bottom 3 system most baseball fans lazily assume. Fangraphs ranked is at #20 while Baseball America gave the O's 3 top 100 prospects -- this is all before new leadership drafts #1 overall and adds International Talent. Right there is your infusion of top talent. By this time next year it should be a top 10 system in the game. - Back to the bigs, Cobb's 2H ERA of 2.56 and 1.15 WHIP (backed by uptick in usage of splitter) and Dylan Bundy taking the next step (9.6 K/9 last year, 7.11 ERA 2H last year as he wore down behind terrible defense) gives pitching stability at the top with better ... - Defense, as last year's team D ranked 29th in the league (Fangraphs) thanks to 1) Adam Jones in CF, Machado at SS, 3) Beckham at 3B, 4) Mancini/Trumbo in the corner OF spots. That's brutal as all are significantly below average at those respective positions, all of which are replaced by younger and more athletic players. - Doubtful Chris Davis gets nearly 500 ABs again; and if he does, he's in the midst of a rebound season. This team is still terrible. And no where close to a playoff roster ready to compete late into October. But there's pieces, depth, and some more athleticism, combined with a regression to mean, means they won't be the worst team next year and (presumably) not a historical bad team. A lot can change in baseball year over year. No one thought the 2011 Orioles were going to the playoffs in 2012, either. Give it some time, but don't think 2019 will not be a complete dumpster fire like 2018. A 62 win season = 15 win improvement (8 from Pythag, 7 from aforementioned reasons) = still 100 losses but arrow in right direction and reasonable. And at 100 losses, I think most would qualify that as "outperform"
  3. This thread is reactionary. We get it, a contrarian view from CoC (and trust me, I respect that you look at data with no bias), but this is a transaction at it's simplest nature. Not a sign of anything and not worthy of trying to fire up the masses. Elias is looking a the opportunity cost of a small amount of slot money vs a positional player that fills a positional need for an organization; like another poster said, these type of depth moves happen quite often around the bigs. Not sure you can just paint such a black and white picture with this one. Thank u, next
  4. Anyone else worried about the fact that Ubaldo would be going back to back starts against the Jays? Rarely do you see a guy across MLB face the same team twice and get the same result. If Ubaldo had spun that gem last time out against any other team I would be all in on Ubaldo, but the fact that it was in Toronto against the same lineup worries me.
  5. Interesting idea, impossible to pull off mid season. He also threw ~80 innings last year, so assuming a 20% increase in workload he would still only have about 95 innings in the tank for this year and he's already thrown ~30 innings. Let's save the 65 innings remaining for the pen in high leverage situations.
  6. Even if the O's are a true .500 team (which it seems half of the AL is this year), at 7 games over they're on pace for an 84-85 win season. Which puts them right in the hunt come August/September...isn't that what any baseball fan wants from their team? It's hard to win 90 games. It's near impossible to win 100 games (especially this year in the AL). A playoff hunt come late summer will be great. It's baseball. Everyone take a step back from the ledge. O's are flawed, yes. But they're fun to watch, the owner spent some cash to keep the core around, and they're right in the thick of it. To ask for anything more isn't being realistic. Can you imagine this board if we were fans of the Padres? Or Angels? Or D-Backs? Franchises with little assets and already playing meaningless baseball? We have it pretty good and let's not forget--this team has the most wins of any AL team over the last few years.
  7. Would of liked to see the O's have made a play for Pearce. Still not sure why DD seemed to push Pearce into the Chen tier of "Thanks for your time, but time to move on..." list of FAs at the beginning of last winter. Pearce plays all over the diamond and has great pop for a bench bat. Don't look now but he's batting over .300 with 7 HR. And more importantly, he's walking more. Probably could of had him for Kim's contract (2 yrs/7 mln)
  8. I actually listened to the radio broadcast of last night's game. ESPNRadio just straight up lied or is clueless. About Ortiz: "Tested more than anyone else and never tested positive" ...umm do they forget he tested positive in 2003? And that the Players Union confirmed he did?
  9. Bruce would consider Camden Yards a neutral move, or at worst, a downgrade. Combining the 2013 and 2014 seasons, Great American Park was first in HR park factors, with Camden Yards 6th. If you look at just last year Camden Yards was 2nd with Great American 6th. Either way I don't know how much of a scenery change will impact Bruce's #s. Alvarez though, outside of Pittsburgh...
  10. Quick comp without looking at #s, though they're similar pitchers (Big arm, both coming from pitcher friendly NL parks). Would you be OK with a Nate Eovaldi like season if Cashner were an O?
  11. Finally, a dose of reality. Cashner was dealt (I believe) for Anthony Rizzo, straight up, when they were both breaking into the bigs. He has the pedigree and arm. You aren't getting him for free; imagine how Padres fans will feel if he's dealt for Mancini, who doesn't even appear on top 100 prospect lists?
  12. Yesterday's Roch's entry has a little tidbit buried in it... OK, who qualifies as the sleeper leadoff option? I'll go with Joey Rickard. We've beaten the rule five selection to death but putting up a .321 AVG with 21 SB last year is (hopefully) nothing to sleep on. Any ideas on who else could Buck be referring to?
  13. Cargo, man, I don't know what to think. Contract is OK (2yrs $37 mln). Hit .270 w/ 40HR and 97 RBI last year. at Coors: .299/24HR/61RBI on the road: .243/16HR/36 RBI ^^those are pretty close to his career splits. career .255 hitter outside of Coors. You'd think he could muster a .260/27/90 line in Camden yards as a 30yr old in Baltimore. Blackmon is a FA after 2018 and Dickerson is a FA after 2019. They're both cheap so i doubt the rockies trade either of those cats...especially if the O's are discussing a deal. Baltimore obviously dont have the prospects for it. Honestly, I would ship out Bundy + a lower level prospect for Cargo and call it a day. Rockies shed ~$40 mln in salary over the next 2 years and there's very little room on the 25 man for Bundy on the O's with the bullpen looking stacked. If cutting the cord on Bundy meant avoiding the disaster of the Davis contract, then I would do it. But that's just me...
  14. This. Moneyball is all about zigging when others are zagging. It's not a story of OBP or defense. It's about exploiting markets. Right now, whether you like it or not, the players the O's typically target are on discount. The cost of OBP and athleticism/defense is through the roof. The O's can exploit this to a degree (like the Astros did last year). Although it's offset by the fact that bullpen pieces have never been more expensive, and it really seems like Duqette and Buck were ahead of the curve there (stocking a rotation full of 3s and letting your middle and late inning guys do the rest...Royals model also made this too expensive)
  15. Local bar here serves Jumbalaya Cheesesteaks. Needless to say we will all be calling them Trumbolaya Cheesesteaks. Get that rally started Mr. Trumbomb! On a serious note, this deal makes a ton of sense. Trumbo hit .295 w/ 12 HR from July on last year with an OBP north of .340. Put him in Camden Yards in a muggy summer and watch him hit 30 HRs in a walk year. Get to stay competitive this year while not hampering the payroll books for future liabilities (Manny, Schoop).
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