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Beef Supreme

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Beef Supreme last won the day on March 7 2016

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About Beef Supreme

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  • Birthday 7/30/1980

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  1. .500+ record, or no. 13 overall draft pick?

    Wow. Very nice. I need to find my source material that claimed that there was not much drop off by pick after the #1 overall. Will get back to you when/if i figure out what I had read.
  2. .500+ record, or no. 13 overall draft pick?

    Surprised. What years do these cover? Have your source material available?
  3. My kingdom for the Joe Angel HR call

    I agree with OFFNY about Thorne's call. No need to get peoples' hopes up falsely.
  4. Castro convertible..its time

    Not sure what you mean. Players with high batting averages have high BABIPs, too. We do see some outliers like 2015 Parra, whom I used as an example. Otherwise, BA and BABIP have a very high correlation. Nowadays, as the strikeout is more like a badge of honor for batters than the scarlet letter it used to be, the gap has grown between BA and BABIP. Also, there have been some very speedy players who create a little bit of extra separation between BA and BABIP. But the gap between the two is pretty small overall, especially in the long-term,.
  5. Jones' ejection

    Any time the umpire chases the player to prolong the argument, I shift the blame to the umpire.
  6. Castro convertible..its time

    When I see a high FIP, I ask why. If it's because the pitcher allows lots of walks and/or homeruns, I worry. If it's because his K/9 is around 6.0, I don't worry. A guy who walks four batters a game? He better not allow many base hits. A guy with a high HR/9 rate? No way. I will take a pitcher with a mediocre K/9 rate any day as long as he can keep the ball in the park and not give too many free passes. I'll take Jaime Moyer but I won't take Ken Dixon. The components of FIP have value unto themselves that are not compounded by mixing them together.
  7. Castro convertible..its time

    I see the noise in the opposite way. Strip all the instruments from the symphony except for the washboard, kazoo and cowbell and you get a big steaming pile of FIP. All the best FIP pitchers died a century ago. Nobody hit homeruns back then... There is no more luck to base hits than umpires calling ball four correctly. Hitting a line drive to left-center is not being "lucky" and there is no "fielding," (unless there is an error, which is counted differently anyhow). There is less luck to base hits than there is to homeruns, which are dependent on fence height and length as well as air pressure, humidity and wind strength, which affect balls hit farther more than balls hit shorter. And strikeouts can be considered lucky when umps call out batters on balls or appeals to the third base umpire. There is no such thing as "three true outcomes;" such talk is intellectually dishonest. There is such a small percentage of "luck" as a percentage of the whole with all of these activities. Focusing on 1/4 of the results and ignoring 3/4 of the results can best be described as "not seeing the forest for the trees."
  8. Chance Sisco: 'I'll Be Ready' When Orioles Call

    Thanks for this. Interesting.
  9. Jones' ejection

  10. Jones' ejection

    Pus, there are the side-doors.
  11. Jones' ejection

    A lot.
  12. Jones' ejection

    Thanks for these articles, Cumberbundy. I am shocked by how many people believe that the strike zone is where the pitch crosses the front edge of the plate. Even former catcher Tim McCarver insisted this was the case during a World Series broadcast years ago.
  13. Chance Sisco: 'I'll Be Ready' When Orioles Call

    27 years is the average age of AAA players. How much higher is the rate of stolen base attempts in AAA than in MLB?
  14. Castro convertible..its time

    Actually, they are supposed to predict future ERA rather than "performance," if we are nit-picking. I am not convinced they are better predictors of ERA since I don't think ignoring 3/4 of the game is a valid approach, regardless of how one may massage the data. FIP and the rest center their formulas on league ERA to make the final number look like ERA. I can take WHIP or any other pitching stat I want to, multiply it by ERA and have a result that I could test and declare that within a certain margin of error is "proof" of statistical reliability of my method. Both are asking answers, not questions, when someone has an agenda to prove a point from the outset instead of investigating with intellectual integrity.