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99 Low A-Ball

About Otter

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    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 9/24/1973
  1. Exactly, as Adam ages and loses his good bad speed his offensive production will fall off a cliff. He's overly aggressive with poor plate discipline, but has been able to be productive due to a combination of athleticism/youth/bat speed/raw talent. Once he starts to lose bat speed, he'll have to start cheating to get to the fastball. I see similarities to JJ Hardy; once JJ Hardy lost his bat speed he went from a 25-30 HR guy to Mark Belanger very quickly. Adam does not have the profile of a hitter who will age gracefully. And adding in the below average defense, I don't want him resigned on any type of contract or at any position. We finally have some good OF prospects; I'd rather be watching them play on league minimum salaries than overpaying for declining veterans' past performances.
  2. SP Openings Across MLB

    Exactly. Tillman threw straight over the top, but the shoulder injury obviously made it hard for him to repeat that same arm slot last year. It was very clear even watching on TV that he couldn't find a consistent arm slot. Now the questions for him are is he fully healthy, and if healthy then does he regain his effectiveness. Or has his arm simply run out of bullets. I would be fine bringing him back on a modest 1 year deal to compete for the #5 spot. But he should not be handed a spot in the rotation, or given a multi-year deal. Unfortunately, I think Dan chooses the latter...
  3. I think you're underestimating the hassle factor. I know I, and friends/family I've talked to, go to a lot less sporting events (not just baseball) for that very reason.
  4. I think you also have to consider the hassle of going to a game; and really the hassle of going to any pro sporting event. You have to fight traffic to get into the city, find parking, and spend a lot of money on tickets/parking/food (especially with a family). I think a lot of people avoid the hassle and watch the game from the comfort of your own home on a 60 inch HD screen.
  5. Exactly. It doesn't make sense for a team with playoff aspirations to trade 2 major league ready pitchers they might need next season. And on the flip side, the asking price doesn't make any sense for the O's either. Why would you trade your best player, and then still try to make the playoffs in 2018 (which is the obvious message if you're demanding 2 major league pitchers in return)??
  6. Simply Extension?

    When it comes to prospects, normally I'd agree with you that a 50% hit rate is very lucky. However, Mancini already is a starting major league OF and Hays held his own in a short stint in the majors after just one year in the minors. Stewart and Mullins have put up good numbers in AA, and possess some nice major league quality tools. I think we probably already have 2 and will be lucky to have a third from that group. As for extending Jones, it would be an absolutely terrible idea and that's why it will probably happen. A soon to be 33 year old aging CF with already declining defensive ability is not someone we should be extending. Plus, his overly aggressive approach at the plate will not age well as his bat speed declines (see JJ Hardy). I also think Adam might put up a fight when asked to move to RF. And OF is the one position where we have multiple quality prospects that are close to major league-ready (Hays, Stewart, Mullins, Santander, Rifaela). We could have a homegrown outfield of players all making major league minimum, or an outfield of overpriced declining/aging veterans. I know which one I'd choose, and I also know which one the O's will choose.
  7. GM Meetings

    Exactly. Forget the human side of forcing these kids to live on very meager wages, and look at it from a developmental standpoint. These kids are paid so little they're eating peanut butter and jelly and McDonalds dollar menu. They are also taking long bus rides, sharing dingy motel rooms, and sleeping at "home" on couches and basements of host families. Proper diet and sleep are important for regular human beings, but substantially more important for young and growing professional athletes. Why not increase their wages to something actually livable where they can afford a small apartment and eat decent food? Furthermore, if they make enough money to not have to work a second job in the offseason then they can focus on training full-time in the winter. Improved sleep, diet, and exercise should maximize development and performance of your prospects. With MLB teams looking for any small advantage over their peers, I'm surprised no one has tried this.
  8. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    I don't really think it's possible to turn out worse than Ubaldo: $50 million, surrender a 1st round pick, and 4 years of miserable results. At least we won't be giving up a 1st round pick for Lynn. And he doesn't have the red flags Ubaldo had (dramatic decline in velocity, inconsistency, command issues).
  9. Cafardo: Showalter losing the clubhouse

    Why are we assuming the Britton wild card game decision is the reason for Buck supposedly losing the clubhouse? That was an in-game tactical decision that backfired. However, if I'm an O's player I'm much more upset about Buck throwing Castro and other young pitchers under the bus publicly for the TTTP issue. A good manager never publicly calls out players for a mechanical issue (not a mental mistake or lack of effort). It's obvious Buck was frustrated by the end of the year, but it's his job to hold it together publicly and reprimand privately. That being said, none of us know if he really "lost" the clubhouse or not. But I guess a year from now it won't matter...
  10. Jones To Talk With Ownership In Offseason

    Jones is a highly competitive aging athlete in the last year of his contract. I would expect and hope he wants the team to do everything it can to win in 2018. I want players who want to win every single game regardless of its importance. However, Buck/Duquette/Angelos are responsible for having a long term view and plan for the O's to be competitive now and in the future. They shouldn't even entertain any opinions from a player on the long-term plan for the organization. Unfortunately, it seems our front office/ownership are just as short-sighted as Jones.
  11. Thank You, James Jerry Hardy

    JJ has been one of my favorite O's of the past 30 years. He's a dying breed, both in baseball and society as a whole. He's the ultimate professional, goes about his business, does his job, treats the game/teammates/opponents with respect, and never draws attention to himself when he succeeds or fails. Like Palmer said, he never flips his bat or struts when he hits a home run, he just puts his head down and runs the bases. And he's been a phenomenally consistent defender; I'm always amazed at how accurate his throws are. That has been even more obvious when watching Beckham scatter balls all over the field. As O's fans, we've been pretty spoiled with great defense at SS over the years: Aparicio, Belanger, Ripken, Bordick, and JJ. I would love to see JJ as an infield instructor next spring training.
  12. Six Games Who Starts?

    I agree. Bundy's gone through the whole year healthy so far, but no reason to risk anything in a meaningless game. I know Buck likes to say that there is no evidence to support innings limits, but managing pitchers is about managing risk. Ignoring a huge increase in innings doesn't guarantee an injury but it certainly increases the risk. Risk vs. reward is very clear in this case.
  13. It's Time to Play the Youngins

    I agree with what you said about Buck not engaging in a power struggle on this issue, and if I was a pitcher I'd much rather throw to Joseph than Sisco. However, why did Dan call him up when he knew Buck probably wouldn't play him? Dan's not stupid, and he's been around Buck for years and knows his tendencies. He had to know that as long as we weren't mathematically eliminated, Buck was going to continue with the Castillo/Joseph platoon and avoid playing a rookie with questionable defensive ability. Even if Sisco starts a few games in the last week, I'd still much rather have an extra year of service time. So yes, for this issue and some others, I do think it's reasonable to raise the question of whether Buck and Dan are on the same page.
  14. It's Time to Play the Youngins

    I think you're right. Buck cares a lot about defense, or at least he claims to. I think it's apparent Sisco's defense isn't at Joseph's or Castillo's level and thus he's not playing. But that being the case, Sisco shouldn't have been brought up just to be an emergency 3rd catcher...it should have been Pena. It makes absolutely no sense to start your #1 prospect's service clock just to sit on the bench as a 3rd catcher. And Buck's claim on how beneficial it is for rookies to just soak up the major league experience is overblown, and much less important than having an extra year of team control for your top prospect. And it's even more important for an organization that is not really successful at extending contracts of their young players.
  15. It's Time to Play the Youngins

    True. But as he gets older, I would bet 2018 and 2019 will look more like 2017 than the outlier of 2016. I know it's anecdotal, but he has looked about as bad as a major leaguer can look at the plate lately. Swinging weakly at pitches at head level, flailing at breaking balls a foot outside. I wonder if he has some kind of nagging injury. Regardless, I wish Buck would sit Trumbo, both for his own good, the good of the fans, and most importantly to get some at bats for Sisco and Santander.