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phillyOs119

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phillyOs119 last won the day on November 18

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524 Triple-A

About phillyOs119

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  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Dylan Bundy
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    Brady Anderson

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  1. 40 man roster due Monday

    You have the right to your opinion. I'd say the stats don't back it up. He had a .654 OPS (about 20% worse than league average) in his second year in AA. Let's assume he can produce just as well at the MLB level, which is quite the generous assumption. If he could put up that line, it'd be 32nd of 35 second basemen with 400 or more ABs. Even if you assume he's an above average fielder (my time watching him says more average) and he steals over 20 bases(only stole 8 last year), he'd still be nothing more than replacement level. There is a reason he wasn't on the top 30 prospects list. He wasn't even in my top 45 or so I considered. His ceiling is utility infielder, and to reach that ceiling he'll need a major uptake in power or he'll need to cut his strikeout rate in half (19% is extremely high for someone who doesn't hit for any power).
  2. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    Yes (20 million). Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Orioles have never stated that they are adverse to paying a posting fee, and I believe have placed non-winning posting bids (under the old system where the highest bidder gets to negotiate). They didn't bother with Tanaka, because he'd require a big contract in addition to the posting fee. Ohtani is restricted from getting a big contract.
  3. Assume we don’t trade Manny and he walks

    My take is that if you are even at 10% odds at the deadline, that's a 1/10 chance you are doing the right thing if you buy or hold at the deadline. A 9/10 chance that you are just hurting the club's future by not moving short term assets. I'm not talking a full sell or anything if you think the team can compete in the near future.
  4. Assume we don’t trade Manny and he walks

    4.3% on deadline day?
  5. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    I think so, or perhaps they thought they couldn't compete with the sponsorship opportunities NY or other large markets offer. This is a guy who is taking a pay cut to come to the states, and if he waited 2 more years, he'd get at least 20x (I'm not exaggerating) as much. So there are other factors than the 3 million or so a team could give him. Basically whatever team is willing to bend the rules the most to woo him is the team he'll sign with because this is going to be completely unprecedented. All teams should put up the 20 million posting fee for a chance to negotiate and make their best pitch.
  6. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    No, this is a misinterpretation of PA's philosophy. He doesn't mind spending on international free agents, he just doesn't want to spend serious money on 16 year olds. Ohtani is a 23 year old man who throws 100mph and can hit the ball 400+ ft easily. He is one of the best pitchers and hitters in the second best baseball league in the world.
  7. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    I meant if they had any foresight and wanted to go after Ohtani.
  8. O’s Awarded the 33rd Pick

    Yes, but what I was saying is the 33rd could drop as low as 39th and is sure to drop some as team's QO free agents are signed and the team that lost them gets compensation picks (which come before the competive balance round A).
  9. Assume we don’t trade Manny and he walks

    What do you consider hopelessly out of it? Does 2.6% chance going into the weekend before the trade deadline count?
  10. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    I didn't mean the Orioles are well set up to go after him. I said in the previous post that I wished the Orioles were the type of team who would go all out to sign a guy like Ohtani and that post was just answering the question of where he would play. Since they weren't spending the pool and had one of the top initial amounts, it would have been easy to have one of the top pool amounts available if they had any foresight. It's obviously too late for that now. The Orioles have only 660k remaining in their international bonus pool.
  11. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    Starting pitcher (obviously), DH and perhaps play outfield on off days. Ohtani is the type of talent you make room for, you sign him and now an enviable surplus of talent. He'd be the #1 prospect in baseball as a pitcher and top 100 at least as a hitter. If he shows himself to be a good MLB hitter, then it frees the team up to trade some of Mancini, Stewart, Santander, Mullins, Hays etc for more starting pitching. If not, you still have a possible ace pitcher who could provide some pop as a pinch hitter if needed (he's going to hit for power, just a question as to whether he'll get on base enough).
  12. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    I just wish the Orioles were the type of team that would pull out all the stops for a guy like Ohtani. He's a guy that if there weren't international limits, would get at least 70 million, so he's a huge value for whatever team gets him. According to the AP, the Orioles still have 660,000 of international signing bonus money, so hopefully they can extract an interesting player or two at least by trading the money to teams that are trying to sign him.
  13. O’s Awarded the 33rd Pick

    It can move back, every team that receives revenue sharing that loses a QO free agent who signs for over 50million would get a pick after round 1 and before the comp. balance A. Its kind of stupidly complicated. The lowest it could go is 39.
  14. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/all-9-recipients-will-reject-qualifying-offer.html The list of QO free agents is here.
  15. Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

    I didn’t say don’t, just respond to blackbat about signing them and keeping the picks. I think it’d cost the second round pick to sign one and the 3rd round pick to sign a second qo player. Someone correct me if I’m mistaken.
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