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Now is the time: Extend Chris Tillman.

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http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-tillman-looking-for-a-chance-to-adjust-20170921-story.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

“I don’t think there’s any secret about how I feel about the guys in this clubhouse,’’ Tillman said. “Everyone knows how I feel about everyone in here. I mean, that goes all the way around. All our friends here. It’s a place I’m comfortable with and I like being comfortable. Who knows? If that means anything, take that for what it’s worth.”

It probably won’t be the determining factor. The Orioles might be willing to offer him an incentive-laden contract to prove himself again, but it only takes one other team to gamble that last year was a total anomaly and that Tillman is a mechanical adjustment away from being the next Jake Arrieta.

It might be worth considering unless y'all think the Orioles are signing a couple frontline starters this winter. 

Incentive laden contract that gets his salary up to what he earned this season. Just based on track record and the fact he would have a complete off season to get in shape in ST next year, I'd take him over Miley.

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25 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-tillman-looking-for-a-chance-to-adjust-20170921-story.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

“I don’t think there’s any secret about how I feel about the guys in this clubhouse,’’ Tillman said. “Everyone knows how I feel about everyone in here. I mean, that goes all the way around. All our friends here. It’s a place I’m comfortable with and I like being comfortable. Who knows? If that means anything, take that for what it’s worth.”

It probably won’t be the determining factor. The Orioles might be willing to offer him an incentive-laden contract to prove himself again, but it only takes one other team to gamble that last year was a total anomaly and that Tillman is a mechanical adjustment away from being the next Jake Arrieta.

It might be worth considering unless y'all think the Orioles are signing a couple frontline starters this winter. 

Incentive laden contract that gets his salary up to what he earned this season. Just based on track record and the fact he would have a complete off season to get in shape in ST next year, I'd take him over Miley.

A mechanical adjustment away from being the next Jake Arrieta?   Hardly.    A mechanical adjustment away from being the old Chris Tillman?     I'd gladly take that.   I've  said all along I could get on board with a one-year deal at a fairly low fixed salary plus incentives, and maybe a vesting option if he exceeds 160 innings, or something like that.    But the fixed amount needs to be low enough where the O's could eat it if he wasn't up to the task.    

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A mechanical adjustment away from being the next Jake Arrieta?   Hardly.    A mechanical adjustment away from being the old Chris Tillman?     I'd gladly take that.   I've  said all along I could get on board with a one-year deal at a fairly low fixed salary plus incentives, and maybe a vesting option if he exceeds 160 innings, or something like that.    But the fixed amount needs to be low enough where the O's could eat it if he wasn't up to the task.    

Say $3 mil?

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1 hour ago, birdwatcher55 said:

what's he making this year. I would extend him two years (second year club option) and load it with incentives for wins and innings pitched.

He made $10 mm last year.    I don't believe success-based performance bonuses are allowed under the CBA, except for bonuses based on things like all-star appearances or top 5 in the Cy Young; nothing based on wins.   Innings-based incentives are OK.

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1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Say $3 mil?

Yeah.    I'd do that, plus say, an extra $2 mm for every 20 innings he pitches over 120.    

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Has there ever been a veteran starter who had a season this bad who just bounced back to his old self the next season?  When I was looking for comparable seasons to Tillman in BB-ref, it looked to me like most of these guys are just plain done.  Steve Blass didn't bounce back after 1973.  Hideo Nomo didn't bounce back after 2004.  Jim DeShaies didn't bounce back after 1994.  Some young guys like Roy Halladay did eventually bounce back.  

I think the worst thing the O's could do this offseason would be to give Tillman a guaranteed contract and count on him for the rotation next year.  A minor league contract and a spring training invite are find, but they need to have five or six guys who are better options than Tillman lined up.  

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5 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Has there ever been a veteran starter who had a season this bad who just bounced back to his old self the next season?  When I was looking for comparable seasons to Tillman in BB-ref, it looked to me like most of these guys are just plain done.  

About the closest I can think of is John Lackey, who posted a 6.41 ERA for Boston in 2011 at age 32, missed the next year and has posted a 3.56 ERA since then at ages 34-38.

 

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Whatever amount of talent he has left, it's a nice sentiment.

I imagine he's going to be a February sign.  The hope is doing his regular offseason will get him back closer to himself - there's no reason for teams to jump before the New Year.  It's easy to picture well attended throwing sessions closer to when camps open, and those scouting reports driving where along the spring training invite to small major league guarantee spectrum he lands.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

About the closest I can think of is John Lackey, who posted a 6.41 ERA for Boston in 2011 at age 32, missed the next year and has posted a 3.56 ERA since then at ages 34-38.

 

So the O's should send Tillman to the surgeon, give him a bucket of fried chicken and a six pack of beer, and tell him to come back in 2019.  :P

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yeah.    I'd do that, plus say, an extra $2 mm for every 20 innings he pitches over 120.    

Be careful, you know Buck will pitch him every 5th day no matter how he is performing. 

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4 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

what's he making this year. I would extend him two years (second year club option) and load it with incentives for wins and innings pitched.

It may have changed...but it was not allowed for pitching skill...


A performance-incentive bonus can, however, be tied to days spent on an MLB Active List during the MLB regular season, and/or Games Played, Games Started, Games Finished, and/or Innings Pitched for pitchers, or Games Played, Games Started, and/or Plate Appearances for position players. Awards such as MVP, Cy Young, Silver Slugger, and/or Gold Glove, and/or being named to an All-Star team, can also be tied to an incentive bonus.

 

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4 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Has there ever been a veteran starter who had a season this bad who just bounced back to his old self the next season?  When I was looking for comparable seasons to Tillman in BB-ref, it looked to me like most of these guys are just plain done.  Steve Blass didn't bounce back after 1973.  Hideo Nomo didn't bounce back after 2004.  Jim DeShaies didn't bounce back after 1994.  Some young guys like Roy Halladay did eventually bounce back.  

I think the worst thing the O's could do this offseason would be to give Tillman a guaranteed contract and count on him for the rotation next year.  A minor league contract and a spring training invite are find, but they need to have five or six guys who are better options than Tillman lined up.  

I think this is a good point.  It is hard to find starting pitchers that had good careers followed by a season as bad as Tillman in 2017 and then returned to their previous winning ways.    I would not say that this eliminates Tillman from returning but the O's should not count on him as they build their team for next year.   Offer him a 1m base and incentive that get him to 6M.    Add a 10m option for 2019 with no buyout. 

I don't think the O's have to worry about some other team beating an offer like that.  Every other GM is going to know how rare it is to come back from a shoulder injury that produced a season like Tillman's.

Chris is an Oriole and I want to see him stay an Oriole.  But I don't think that he nor the team expect the O's to keep  him on the 25 man roster if he can't produce.

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