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Potential Landing Spots for Chris Davis

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So, if signing Davis to a 6/150 deal is stupid (and I agree that it is), what would be a good deal for both Davis and the O's? Would a 5/110 deal be better, or a 4/90 work? I think I'd be inclined to go for a shorter term deal, but I'm thinking that Davis will get at least 5 years.

Any deal I would be comfortable with has no shot of being signed. Davis has a skillset that is already volatile enough that he's only 1 year removed from being basically replacement level and too many similar players were pretty much finished in their early to mid thirties. I agree he's getting at least 5 years, I think 6 is more likely, and 7 is a possibility.

Edited by Babypowder

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So, if signing Davis to a 6/150 deal is stupid (and I agree that it is), what would be a good deal for both Davis and the O's? Would a 5/110 deal be better, or a 4/90 work? I think I'd be inclined to go for a shorter term deal, but I'm thinking that Davis will get at least 5 years.

In all likelihood, yes, someone will give Davis 5 years. That shouldn't sound as scary as folks are making it out to be, however. The guy's only 29, and will turn 30 just before next season starts. A five year deal expires after his age 34 season. It's not like you're paying him into the back half of his 30s.

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In all likelihood, yes, someone will give Davis 5 years. That shouldn't sound as scary as folks are making it out to be, however. The guy's only 29, and will turn 30 just before next season starts. A five year deal expires after his age 34 season. It's not like you're paying him into the back half of his 30s.

It is scary, if year 4 or 5, Davis turns into Ryan Howard Jr.

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It is scary, if year 4 or 5, Davis turns into Ryan Howard Jr.

There aren't many three true outcome types that age well. Too many completely fall on their face in their early 30s. Howard, Dunn, Reynolds, Deer, Branyan, Cust, etc

Of course, Davis also was 28 when he went all 2014 on everyone... so it doesn't have to be age based for him to completely murder the team if he's making 25 million.

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There aren't many three true outcome types that age well. Too many completely fall on their face in their early 30s. Howard, Dunn, Reynolds, Deer, Branyan, Cust, etc

Of course, Davis also was 28 when he went all 2014 on everyone... so it doesn't have to be age based for him to completely murder the team if he's making 25 million.

I don't think Davis counts as a TTO guy. Sure he strikes out a ton but most years his BA is acceptable and he doesn't walk that that much comparatively.

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I don't think Davis counts as a TTO guy. Sure he strikes out a ton but most years his BA is acceptable and he doesn't walk that that much comparatively.

He's 4th in MLB this season in percentage of PAs resulting in TTO. Last year he was first. The last 3 years he's walked 10-11 percent, which is high especially with the downturn in walks recently. He's hitting .253 for his career and .196 and .253 the last two years. He qualifies for me.

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It is scary, if year 4 or 5, Davis turns into Ryan Howard Jr.

So if Davis bottomed out in the last year of a 5 year deal the whole deal would be a failure? That's crazy.

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So if Davis bottomed out in the last year of a 5 year deal the whole deal would be a failure? That's crazy.

So what if its year 4 and 5, and he is making 20-25 million a year.

That has to impact the team, wouldn't you say?

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Any deal I would be comfortable with has no shot of being signed. Davis has a skillset that is already volatile enough that he's only 1 year removed from being basically replacement level and too many similar players were pretty much finished in their early to mid thirties. I agree he's getting at least 5 years, I think 6 is more likely, and 7 is a possibility.

I see your point. But he's also 2 years removed from finishing 2nd in the MVP voting. He's had 1 mediocre season (still on pace to hit 30+ HR) sandwiched between 2 monster seasons. He was also pretty good in 2012. I think many teams will look at 2014 as just a bad year. Dumb or not, the Orioles will miss losing Davis. And so will the fans when Lyle Overbay or someone else off the scrap heap is the starting first baseman. No big FA deal is going to go 100% in favor of the team. But, you have to take the risk at some point. I'd rather it be Machado, but I really believe Manny doesn't have any plans on staying in Baltimore. I think Davis would love to.

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Davis will be far more valuable to a team that plays in a park where a lot of HRs are hit, especially those that have a short right field fence. That would most clearly be Camden Yards and Yankee Mausoleum, and might also include Texas, Toronto, Colorado and Cincinnati. If Davis is not playing on a team with that characteristic, his HRs and RBIs will diminish, perhaps precipitously. (His BA may go up since there will be more ground in the OF for the shifted fielders to cover.) I would expect Davis to go to a team where he will continue to hit a lot of HRs. He's simply going to be more valuable to such a team -- which, all other things being equal, should offer him more money (or years) -- and he is likely to be more productive and happier on such a team.

I would be surprised to see the Hal Steinbrenner, sort-of-cost-conscious, stuff-our-own-pockets-even-more Yankees sign Davis since they have big contracts with Teixeira at 1B, Beltran in RF and A-Rod at DH. For the Yankees to use him they would have to make a trade, platoon (even though Beltran and Teixeira are switch-hitters), or sit one of them. (I assume that Texieira's current injury or injuries aren't career-threatening.)

The Jays strike me as a real possibility; they could decline their team option on Encarnacion (who is 32) or Bautista (who is almost 35), make that player a QO and sign the younger Davis. Or they could keep both by exercising their options, sign Davis and lose the draft pick. Encarnacion could be the regular DH, and Davis could play some RF with Bautista the DH. I have no idea how much Toronto can or will spend, and I'm not sure anyone else does, either. Pretty good lineup though: Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista, Davis, Encarnacion, Martin, Pillar, Travis, Revere. (I'm pretty sure all those are under team control or have contracts or team options.)

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The team that gave up on him?

Who will Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland be playing for?

AM included a significant amount of cash (~2M IIRC) to get Texas to give up Davis.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

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o

(POSTED JULY 25th)

o

The Orioles.

(POSTED AUGUST 1st)

I'm glad that he's still here.

(POSTED AUGUST 5th)

Now, I'm REALLY GLAD that he is still here.

(POSTED AUGUST 15th)

Now, I'm REALLY, REALLY, REALLY glad that he is still here.

And I hope that we find a way to keep him here.

(POSTED SEPTEMBER 3rd)

Roy Firestone said that we HAVE TO sign Davis.

So, let's do it.

The fact that he's a good defensive 1st baseman makes it imperative, in my rat's ass of an opinion.

Pretty please, with carob-coated rice cakes on top ??? ):pray:

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Davis must hear the cash register ring with every dinger now. What else is there to play for at this point?

He's edging into 6/120 territory. Maybe higher if he closes out strong? I could see someone backing up the Brink's truck if he winds up with 47 jacks.

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Davis must hear the cash register ring with every dinger now. What else is there to play for at this point?

He's edging into 6/120 territory. Maybe higher if he closes out strong? I could see someone backing up the Brink's truck if he winds up with 47 jacks.

Davis could end up with 50 or more the way he is hitting right now and no idea how long it might last. Not too many "non-steroid" players have hit 59 more than once in their careers.

I hope the Orioles are willing to engage in serious talks about resigning Davis, and just make a some namby-pamby offer and say "well, we tried."

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