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Update: O's sign Trumbo to 3yr/$37 mil deal

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15 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

My assumptions are built on evidence. In this case I hope the evidence is wrong, that Trumbo bucks all the trends. But that doesn't change the facts. 

True, you want to talk facts?

How about best record in AL for 5 years?

They play winning baseball, and meaningful games at the end of the season.

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Query of all players from 2005-2015, 140+ games, OPS+ between 110-130 in their age 30 season.  Trumbo is in the middle with a 120 OPS+. 35 players in the result.

At 31 the median OPS+ was 112, games 145.

At 32 it's 97 and 129.

At 33 it's 85 and 81.

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Query of all players from 2005-2015, 140+ games, OPS+ between 110-130 in their age 30 season.  Trumbo is in the middle with a 120 OPS+. 35 players in the result.

At 31 the median OPS+ was 112, games 145.

At 32 it's 97 and 129.

At 33 it's 85 and 81.

And yet the O's/DD just love to throw money at 30 something players past their prime. He did it with Hardy and it was a mistake, he did I with O'day and it was a mistake, he did It with Davis and it was a tragic mistake, and now he has done it with Trumbo. None of these guys did/will even remotely approach their production of the years leading up to their extensions. The O's should have a very happy content roster.

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17 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

And yet the O's/DD just love to throw money at 30 something players past their prime. He did it with Hardy and it was a mistake, he did I with O'day and it was a mistake, he did It with Davis and it was a tragic mistake, and now he has done it with Trumbo. None of these guys did/will even remotely approach their production of the years leading up to their extensions. The O's should have a very happy content roster.

Winning will do that.

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14 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

And yet the O's/DD just love to throw money at 30 something players past their prime. He did it with Hardy and it was a mistake, he did I with O'day and it was a mistake, he did It with Davis and it was a tragic mistake, and now he has done it with Trumbo. None of these guys did/will even remotely approach their production of the years leading up to their extensions. The O's should have a very happy content roster.

Will they never learn

JJ Hardy, has managed to play 114 & 115 games, with an OPS+ of 54 and 88 while banking 28 million, owed min of 16 million more

Darren O'day managed 31 innings to a 3.77 ERA  and 4.57 FIP, while pocketing 6 million, owed 25 million out to his age 36 season

Davis managed a 792 OPS and 107 OPS+ in exchange for a cool 23 million. He is a lock to lead the majors in K's as long as an O's manager can stomach to write him into the lineup every day

And now Trumbo....

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

So someone has to go off the 40-man roster so who goes?

I'm guessing Christian Walker, T.J. McFarland, or Logan Ondrusek is DFA'd. Probably Walker at this point since he's about as redundant as it gets in the system right now.

 

Last man in, first man out I guess. I would have preferred DFAing Christian Walker, maybe Adam Walker can sneak through waivers. Interesting player with 202 strikeouts in 478 AAA at-bats.

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12 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

And yet the O's/DD just love to throw money at 30 something players past their prime. He did it with Hardy and it was a mistake, he did I with O'day and it was a mistake, he did It with Davis and it was a tragic mistake, and now he has done it with Trumbo. None of these guys did/will even remotely approach their production of the years leading up to their extensions. The O's should have a very happy content roster.

The Cardinals signed Brett Cecil to the same contract (4/31M) as O'Day and I dont think Cecil is as good. Hell, Melancon has been about the same as O'Day and he signed for DOUBLE the amount (4/62M). I understand people being disappointed that O'Day wasnt as good this year and injured, but he had a solid 5 year track record and was flat out dominant the two year prior to the contract.

I would also understand if, for instance, Manny, O'Day, and Trumbo were all FA's at the same time and instead of giving Manny 35M, we let him walk and signed O'Day/Trumbo for 20M... But that hasnt happened.

We have a good team and while people argue that we simply paid to keep the same team around, there forgetting the fact that Bundy, Miley, Gausman, and Ubaldo all figure to be better than last year, even if Tillman doesnt improve.

Also, we are built to compete now.... so why not take a shot. Serious question, if we begin to fall apart and need to become sellers next winter or the 2018 deadline...which of the below players are not a positive asset? As in, would we have to pay some money to get another team to take them and give us a prospect...

Davis - Maybe, but not if he turns in a season like 2015... he then would be positive

Jones - 1/17M (2018), positive

Hardy - 1/14, positve... and if he isnt/or he is hurt this year, then we couldnt get the Vesting option anyway

Trumbo - 2/22M, positive...and with a little regression, he is simply neutral. 

Machado - Uhhh yeah, positive

Britton - Positive

Brach - Positive

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3 hours ago, backwardsk said:

For the moment, yes.  But in the future, instead of having a million or two in dead money here or there, we're going to have 10M+ in payroll for guys not on the team.

Most of the money has to be put into escrow on July 1 of the second season after the money was earned.   So for example, deferred comp from 2015 for Hardy and Jimenez will be put into escrow on July 1, 2017 (at a discount agreed to in the CBA that assumes the money will be invested while in escrow).    So, it's not like the deferred compensation just builds and builds until it comes due and then the team has a whopping bill to pay.

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

So someone has to go off the 40-man roster so who goes?

I'm guessing Christian Walker, T.J. McFarland, or Logan Ondrusek is DFA'd. Probably Walker at this point since he's about as redundant as it gets in the system right now.

 

Orioles officially announce the Trumbo 3-year deal. DFA OF Adam Walker

 

Per Dan Connolly. 

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42 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Query of all players from 2005-2015, 140+ games, OPS+ between 110-130 in their age 30 season.  Trumbo is in the middle with a 120 OPS+. 35 players in the result.

At 31 the median OPS+ was 112, games 145.

At 32 it's 97 and 129.

At 33 it's 85 and 81.

To be honest, I'm shocked that the decline rate is that high.    How many players fit your criteria?   What was their median/mean career OPS+ through the 120 OPS+ season?   And was Trumbo really in the middle, or were there more 110-120 players in the sample than 120-130 players?   (Logically, I'd expect there to be more in the 110-120 range.)

I do see that this team is set up to hit a wall at some point.    The average age of the team was slightly below league average in 2016 and each of the last few years, but will probably be above league average in 2017.     The farm system isn't supplying clear answers and Duquette seems unwilling to take chances on the borderline guys like Mancini.    But I'm just going to enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts, rather than ruining the experience by worrying about the long term.    

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