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Make your Billy Hamilton trade offer

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8 minutes ago, weams said:

I'm not trading Mancini for Hamilton. Or Givens. 

I'd trade Mancini for Hamilton in a nanosecond.    

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'd trade Mancini for Hamilton in a nanosecond.    

Many would. He's not going to be an Oriole and I'm just being honest with where I would stand on trying to make that push. He's a never Oriole like David Cone was. 

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17 minutes ago, weams said:

Many would. He's not going to be an Oriole and I'm just being honest with where I would stand on trying to make that push. He's a never Oriole like David Cone was. 

It's a totally hypothetical discussion.    Hamilton's a good player who has accrued 7 rWAR in barely over 3 years of service time, and brings dimensions that our team sorely lacks.    Mancini is probably a less than 50/50 bet to accrue 7 rWAR in his entire career, and his skill set is redundant of two players who are locked up for 3+ years.    That trade is a no-brainer, but totally absurd because the Reds would never do it.   

Edited by Frobby

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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It's a totally hypothetical discussion.    Hamilton's a good player who has accrued 7 rWAR in barely over 3 years of service time, and brings dimensions that our team sorely lacks.    Mancini is probably a less than 50/50 bet to accrue 7 rWAR in his entire career, and his skill set is redundant of two players who are locked up for 3+ years.    That trade is a no-brainer, but totally absurd because the Reds would never do it.   

Mancini's also older than Hamilton. Why would a rebuilding team trade a younger player for an older player who lacks a true position? We just don't match up well with the Reds.

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8 hours ago, weams said:

I'm not trading Mancini for Hamilton. Or Givens. 

You would not trade Mancini for Hamilton?   Wow.    I love Mancini but he's a RH platoon DH at best on this team.    At worst, Hamilton provides plus defense and great speed off the bench.   That seems like a no brainer trade to me especially with Mancini having little value to this team.    Billy Hamilton might not seem like much on the surface but he's entering his prime years as he just turned 26 in September.    He got on base at a .321 clip, from from great but not horrible.    A leadoff hitter's role is to get on base and score runs.    Billy Hamilton scored 69 runs in 119 games last year.   He stole 58 bases and was caught only 8 times.    He stole 57 and was caught only 8 times the year before.    If he didn't improve one iota, he's a decant player who was worth 2.8 WAR last year.     

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8 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Mancini's also older than Hamilton. Why would a rebuilding team trade a younger player for an older player who lacks a true position? We just don't match up well with the Reds.

Umm. Mancini is 24 and Hamilton is 26. Mancini is a FA in 2023 and Hamilton in 2020. So a rebuilding team would do it to get a younger player with more control.

This is not saying the Reds would/should do it, but just correcting.

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Mancini plays First Base.  The Reds have a player signed for Seven more years to play that position (Joey Votto).  Why would they want another first baseman and give up an outfielder???

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Hamilton's 2.8 rWAR would have ranked 5th on the O's last season, just behind Chris Davis and ahead of Brach. He's making $2.7 million in 2017. There is no reason for the Reds to dump him. It would probably take someone like Bundy or Sisco to get a deal done, and the O's are not in a position to make that deal.

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20 hours ago, weams said:

I'm not trading Mancini for Hamilton. Or Givens. 

I know your the ultimate homer but that is ridiculous even for you.  Mancini for Hamilton makes no sense for the Reds and is a grossly unequal.

Due to being the fastest player in baseball, Hamilton was brought up with a lot of work still to do with the bat.  He made some nice strides offensively last year.  Hamilton's defensive and speed would be just what the Orioles need.  For two years in row he had stolen more than 50 bases and caught less than 10 times in less than 120 games.  By putting Hamilton in center and moving Jones to a corner position the Orioles outfield defense would go from being below average to well above average.   

Mancini's numbers in AAA were underwelming. He is not anyone's top 100 prospect list.  Mancini is not even listed in the top ten prospects for the Orioles by Tony.  The Orioles have the 25th best farm system per Keith Law.  Mancini is blocked for at least the next three years by Trumbo and Davis.  

What world do you live in that you would not trade Mancini for Hamilton?    

 

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2 minutes ago, POR said:

I know your the ultimate homer but that is ridiculous even for you.  Mancini for Hamilton makes no sense for the Reds and is a grossly unequal.

Due to being the fastest player in baseball, Hamilton was brought up with a lot of work still to do with the bat.  He made some nice strides offensively last year.  Hamilton's defensive and speed would be just what the Orioles need.  For two years in row he had stolen more than 50 bases and caught less than 10 times in less than 120 games.  By putting Hamilton in center and moving Jones to a corner position the Orioles outfield defense would go from being below average to well above average.   

Mancini's numbers in AAA were underwelming. He is not anyone's top 100 prospect list.  Mancini is not even listed in the top ten prospects for the Orioles by Tony.  The Orioles have the 25th best farm system per Keith Law.  Mancini is blocked for at least the next three years by Trumbo and Davis.  

What world do you live in that you would not trade Mancini for Hamilton?    

 

Weams is all about the homers.  He'd trade Joey Rickard for Pete Incaviglia right now.

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14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Weams is all about the homers.  He'd trade Joey Rickard for Pete Incaviglia right now.

In their prime?  Sure. 

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16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Joey Rickard has had a prime?

Pre wrist injury.  Jones is the center fielder through 2018. 

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3 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Hamilton's 2.8 rWAR would have ranked 5th on the O's last season, just behind Chris Davis and ahead of Brach. He's making $2.7 million in 2017. There is no reason for the Reds to dump him. It would probably take someone like Bundy or Sisco to get a deal done, and the O's are not in a position to make that deal.

I think this is a perfect example of why the "experts" projections are so wrong every year.  For many years, defense was undervalued.  Now, I believe that it is way off in the other direction.  The defensive component of WAR just doesn't pass the smell test, IMO.  This is why people believe Jason Heyward is worth 8/$184mm and say Trumbo for 3/$37.5mm is an overpay.  This is the reason a team like the Orioles puts up the best record in the AL over a 5-year period while being picked for 4th or 5th in their division year in and year out.  This is the reason a team like the Cincinnati Reds loses 94 games last year and 98 the year before that, yet points to their players and says "but, but but... WAR." 

I think that it is entirely possible that DD and the Orioles have a better model for determining true WAR than either BBRef or Fangraphs.  To me, Billy Hamilton's 2016 season is not worth way more than Mark Trumbo's as WAR would make you believe.  In fact, the reverse is true, IMO.  Yes, I'd rather have Hamilton than Mancini, but it isn't nearly as ridiculous as it is being made out to be here, IMO.  Billy Hamilton isn't nearly the baseball player that so many people think he is.  Again, IMO.  The whole purpose of a player of Hamilton's type offensively is for him to get on base, steal bases, disrupt the opposing pitcher, and score runs.  He scored 69 runs last year, despite all the stolen bases.  It is because he can't hit, doesn't get on base very well, and has no power.  In his career, he has scored 206 runs in 398 games.  As a lead-off hitter.  He's got one of the best hitters in baseball, Joey Votto hitting third behind him, and Zack Cozart in the 2-hole isn't exactly terrible.  He's certainly never pinch-run for, so it isn't like he deserved to score more, but had runs vultured by teammates.  Frankly, had a Trey Mancini been leading off for the Reds over that period of time, I really believe that he would have scored quite a few more runs than that.  Yes, runs scored is a stat that is dependent in part on one's teammates, so isn't the best of stats, but that is exactly the point.  Hamilton's style of play requires help, even if he were able to do it well, and he has had decent players hitting behind him.  Sorry, but I don't think that what Hamilton's range in the outfield gives you is worth so much as to turn such a bad offensive player into a star player.  I just don't.  Better than Mancini?  Yeah, sure, probably.  Better than all but four 2016 Baltimore Orioles?  Not hardly.

Yeah, yeah, I know, I just don't understand.  Believe it or not, it is possible to understand, yet disagree. 

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4 hours ago, Number5 said:

I think this is a perfect example of why the "experts" projections are so wrong every year.  For many years, defense was undervalued.  Now, I believe that it is way off in the other direction.  The defensive component of WAR just doesn't pass the smell test, IMO.  This is why people believe Jason Heyward is worth 8/$184mm and say Trumbo for 3/$37.5mm is an overpay.  This is the reason a team like the Orioles puts up the best record in the AL over a 5-year period while being picked for 4th or 5th in their division year in and year out.  This is the reason a team like the Cincinnati Reds loses 94 games last year and 98 the year before that, yet points to their players and says "but, but but... WAR." 

I think that it is entirely possible that DD and the Orioles have a better model for determining true WAR than either BBRef or Fangraphs.  To me, Billy Hamilton's 2016 season is not worth way more than Mark Trumbo's as WAR would make you believe.  In fact, the reverse is true, IMO.  Yes, I'd rather have Hamilton than Mancini, but it isn't nearly as ridiculous as it is being made out to be here, IMO.  Billy Hamilton isn't nearly the baseball player that so many people think he is.  Again, IMO.  The whole purpose of a player of Hamilton's type offensively is for him to get on base, steal bases, disrupt the opposing pitcher, and score runs.  He scored 69 runs last year, despite all the stolen bases.  It is because he can't hit, doesn't get on base very well, and has no power.  In his career, he has scored 206 runs in 398 games.  As a lead-off hitter.  He's got one of the best hitters in baseball, Joey Votto hitting third behind him, and Zack Cozart in the 2-hole isn't exactly terrible.  He's certainly never pinch-run for, so it isn't like he deserved to score more, but had runs vultured by teammates.  Frankly, had a Trey Mancini been leading off for the Reds over that period of time, I really believe that he would have scored quite a few more runs than that.  Yes, runs scored is a stat that is dependent in part on one's teammates, so isn't the best of stats, but that is exactly the point.  Hamilton's style of play requires help, even if he were able to do it well, and he has had decent players hitting behind him.  Sorry, but I don't think that what Hamilton's range in the outfield gives you is worth so much as to turn such a bad offensive player into a star player.  I just don't.  Better than Mancini?  Yeah, sure, probably.  Better than all but four 2016 Baltimore Orioles?  Not hardly.

Yeah, yeah, I know, I just don't understand.  Believe it or not, it is possible to understand, yet disagree. 

Jason Heyward got his contact because he was a free agent at 26 and in addition to great defense he already had three full years with a ops of 797 or higher.  Last his ops was 631.

Hamilton score 51 runs in 76 games when he batted 1st or 2nd so he was on pace for 100 runs for a full year. Not bad. Hamilton's obp was 321 for the year which is average but it also was 369 in the second half.   His obp was 292 and 274 his first two years.  Hamilton clearly made strides last year. 

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