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Tony-OH

Connolly: Just swing the damn bat Davis!

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24 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Colorado is crazy, Reynolds's .857 OPS is only a 107 wRC+. That makes him a below average offensive first baseman (114 wRC+).

Still much better than Chris Davis this year (92 wRC+), but the park adjustment is always surprising, no matter how prepared I am for it.

I applaud Reynolds for resurrecting his career.   There were a few times after he left us that I thought he was done as a major league player.    Park effects accounted for, his current 107 OPS+ is the highest he's had since leaving Baltimore.   I've always liked the guy and I'm glad to see him doing well.

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8 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Give him the bunt sign

Wow!  What a question. I don't know. I'd want him gone but the money he is owed is too much to  just to cut him loose. 

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I don't think this is an approach issue. Chris Davis cant catch up to a good fastball unless he is looking for it, so when he's looking off speed the bat isn't coming off the shoulder. Vice versa when he is looking fastball that is when you see those horrible whifs on the off speed stuff. 

He needs to change his swing before he changes his approach. This isn't going to get better as he ages. 

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3 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I don't think this is an approach issue. Chris Davis cant catch up to a good fastball unless he is looking for it, so when he's looking off speed the bat isn't coming off the shoulder. Vice versa when he is looking fastball that is when you see those horrible whifs on the off speed stuff. 

He needs to change his swing before he changes his approach. This isn't going to get better as he ages. 

Is it realistic to think he can change a swing he's probably been using his whole life?    I dunno.    He may just be doomed.

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The big question is, how bad does Davis have to be to get benched or DFA? How many years of hitting near the Mendoza line and striking out 50 percent of the time will it take?

I agree that making significant changes to his swing is probably not realistic. I don't see this ending well. I would not be surprised if he's benched by 2019 or 2020 and released before his contract is over. 

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It comes down to this.  One of two things will happen.  Either Chris can in fact have some improvement or he continues to decline.  The Orioles simply cannot both pay him the large sum of money AND take the negative performance impact.  Even with what I believe is nearly Gold Glove caliber defense.

 

I hope the Orioles can move Trumbo and I think his deal is movable even if we do not get back exactly what we want.  I think there is value there to move.  Davis will either improve and be less of a bad deal or decline and be released.  At least some of the money is deferred.....

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10 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

The big question is, how bad does Davis have to be to get benched or DFA? How many years of hitting near the Mendoza line and striking out 50 percent of the time will it take?

I agree that making significant changes to his swing is probably not realistic. I don't see this ending well. I would not be surprised if he's benched by 2019 or 2020 and released before his contract is over. 

It will have to be significantly worse than now.    Probably sub-.700 OPS for two years in a row.

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Just now, foxfield said:

At least some of the money is deferred.....

I've made this point several times, but the O's are required to escrow most of the deferred money within 1.5 seasons after it's earned.     So Davis' 2016 deferred comp (discounted at a rate specified in the CBA) goes into escrow on July 1, 2018.     It's not like the O's don't have to outlay any of the cash until the payment comes due.    

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12 minutes ago, foxfield said:

It comes down to this.  One of two things will happen.  Either Chris can in fact have some improvement or he continues to decline.  The Orioles simply cannot both pay him the large sum of money AND take the negative performance impact.  Even with what I believe is nearly Gold Glove caliber defense.

 

I hope the Orioles can move Trumbo and I think his deal is movable even if we do not get back exactly what we want.  I think there is value there to move.  Davis will either improve and be less of a bad deal or decline and be released.  At least some of the money is deferred.....

Nobody signed Trumbo this past off season when they had the chance. I can't see a team trading any assets for him and taking his salary. He's pretty much the player this year that he always was. Last season was the outlier.

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41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I've made this point several times, but the O's are required to escrow most of the deferred money within 1.5 seasons after it's earned.     So Davis' 2016 deferred comp (discounted at a rate specified in the CBA) goes into escrow on July 1, 2018.     It's not like the O's don't have to outlay any of the cash until the payment comes due.    

Agreed...and I meant that almost entirely facetiously.  

31 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Nobody signed Trumbo this past off season when they had the chance. I can't see a team trading any assets for him and taking his salary. He's pretty much the player this year that he always was. Last season was the outlier.

I think we over paid yes.  And I think that last year was an outlier. I do think this year is an over correction but it will certainly impact his value.  My point is that I believe he is movable to the right folks.  Might it require eating some cash?  Yes and will the amount of cash eaten be the most important factor to what the return is?  Absolutely.  But I think between the two contracts Trumbo is at least movable early if the O's want.  And it seems untenable to think that they could keep both but I know that there are plenty that fear exactly that course.

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2 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

Nobody signed Trumbo this past off season when they had the chance. I can't see a team trading any assets for him and taking his salary. He's pretty much the player this year that he always was. Last season was the outlier.

This is correct. Trumbo doesn't have any value. In fact, he has negative value given his contract and performance.

He (unlike Chris) is tradeable though. Just have to take on another bad contract back. An overpaid, underperforming pitcher most likely. That at least unclogs the jam at OF/1B/DH. 

There will be no such match with Davis unless we are eating the majority of the contract. 

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20 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

If you were running the show, what would you do with Davis?

With that contract, I think I'd be stuck with him with this ownership so it wouldn't matter. Saying that, I would constantly try to move him and see what the least amount of money I'd have to eat for someone to take him.

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On 9/13/2017 at 0:53 PM, Frobby said:

I applaud Reynolds for resurrecting his career.   There were a few times after he left us that I thought he was done as a major league player.    Park effects accounted for, his current 107 OPS+ is the highest he's had since leaving Baltimore.   I've always liked the guy and I'm glad to see him doing well.

I think another persons career as a ML player might be over. Maybe he can resurrect it or maybe he goes the way of Ryan Howard. Davis has $169M to ease any concerns he may be having.

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